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At least 163 records · Page 9

Moving-horizon false data injection attack design against cyber–physical systems

Systematic attack design is essential to understanding the vulnerabilities of cyber–physical systems (CPSs), to better design for resiliency. In particular, false data injection attacks (FDIAs) are well-known and have been shown to be capable of bypassing bad data detection (BDD) while causing targeted biases in resulting state estimates. However, their effectiveness against moving horizon estimators (MHE) is not well understood. In fact, this paper shows that conventional FDIAs are generally ineffective against MHE. One of the main reasons is that the moving window renders the static FDIA recursively infeasible. Here, this paper proposes a new attack methodology, moving-horizon FDIA (MH-FDIA), by considering both the performance of historical attacks and the current system’s status. Theoretical guarantees for successful attack generation and recursive feasibility are given. Numerical simulations on the IEEE-14 bus system further validate the theoretical claims and show that the proposed MH-FDIA outperforms state-of-the-art counterparts in both stealthiness and effectiveness. In addition, an experiment on a path-tracking control system of an autonomous vehicle shows the feasibility of the MH-FDIA in real-world nonlinear systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

REopt Lite User Manual

REopt Lite evaluates the economic viability of grid-connected solar photovoltaics, wind, combined heat and power, and electric and thermal storage at commercial and small industrial sites. It allows building owners to identify the system sizes and dispatch strategies that minimize the site’s life cycle cost of energy. REopt Lite also estimates the amount of time on-site generation and storage can sustain the site's critical load during a grid outage and allows the user the choice of optimizing for energy resilience. It is primarily used to inform project development decisions and to support research on the factors that drive project feasibility for market development and policy analysis. It is available through a web interface, application programing interface, and open-source code. This user manual provides an overview of the model, including its capabilities and typical applications; inputs and outputs; economic calculations; technology descriptions; and model parameters, variables, and equations. The model is highly flexible and is continually evolving to meet the needs of each analysis. Therefore, this report is not an exhaustive description of all capabilities, but rather a summary of the core components of the model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Williston Basin Resource Study for Commercial-Scale Subsurface Hydrogen Storage

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC), in partnership with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), the EERC’s State Energy Research Center (SERC), MPLX Operations LLC, and TC Energy Development Holdings Inc. (a subsidiary of TC Energy Corporation), studied the potential for subsurface hydrogen storage and recovery in the Williston Basin of western North Dakota. The project’s goal was to evaluate the feasibility of large-scale, secure geologic H 2 storage to support future hydrogen generation, storage, and use. This work included laboratory testing, H 2 –rock–fluid exposure experiments, literature reviews on H 2 embrittlement, and reservoir modeling and simulations. The study included an assessment of storage potential across three types of storage reservoirs using both reservoir simulation and DOE’s web-based tool SHASTA-HELP (Subsurface Hydrogen Assessment, Storage, and Technology Acceleration – Hydrogen Estimator for Logistical Planning), as well as investigation of potential H 2 production and markets for commercial-scale deployment. Building on prior EERC gas storage research, three storage options were selected for detailed evaluation: the Broom Creek Formation (a clastic saline reservoir), the Dickinson Lodgepole Mounds (DLM) complex (carbonate mud mound structures) of the Lodgepole Formation (an active oil and gas producing reservoir), and the Dunham Salt Interval of the Piper Formation (to be used for engineered salt cavern development). These targets were prioritized based on prior EERC research using datasets related to seal capacity, reservoir quality, mechanical integrity, and injectivity. Exposure tests on Broom Creek and DLM samples showed mineral dissolution and precipitation that increased brine salinity and altered reservoir rock surfaces. Although these results provide useful insight, they are limited by small sample sizes and short-term (30-day) exposure, requiring further study to assess long-term storage integrity. Salt formations were not tested because of their known nonreactivity and established mechanical stability. Results of reservoir simulations performed for a single site demonstrated that the Broom Creek Formation may be capable of receiving up to 42,000 tonnes of injected H 2 over 7 months via one well. H 2 recovery took place over 5 months, resulting in approximately 26,000 tonnes (~62% without cushion gas [CG]). This work suggests water production may be important and subsequent cycles of injection and production may perform more efficiently; however, significant site-specific work in the future is needed to assess actual reservoir performance of injection and withdrawal of H 2 storage. For oil reservoir potential, a multiple-well model was used to simulate injection of approximately 32,000 tonnes of H 2 into a single wellbore while simultaneously producing in place reservoir fluids from four offset wells to maintain reservoir pressure. The simulation results suggested a high recovery (~98%); in addition, cost advantages through existing infrastructure could be realized. Challenges in this reservoir include vi managing gas purity and leakage risks. In both scenarios, production of H 2 takes place in a single-well scenario with 10 cycles (7 months of injection and 5 months of production) over 10 years. Finally, the use of engineered caverns in the Dunhan Salt was evaluated, and the results suggest that while they have a smaller capacity (<1000 tonnes per cavern), they exhibit nearly complete gas recovery (>99%), fast response times, and low purity risk. While caverns in North Dakota may be smaller in capacity, fields can be developed in galleries to accommodate the volumetric needs and rapid turnaround times necessary to meet market demands. Geographic limitations and thin salt intervals in North Dakota may represent less total storage potential than salt domes elsewhere, but significant opportunities exist to expand this market for gas storage in North Dakota. A basinwide assessment was performed to estimate a first-of-its-kind value for H 2 storage on a large scale. DOE’s SHASTA-HELP, combined with EERC simulation work, was used to perform the assessment. Estimated H 2 storage potential varied widely for each formation type. The Broom Creek saline formation was estimated to have a storage potential of approximately 1.7–90.5 million tonnes (MMt). The DLM oil reservoirs were estimated to have 0.07–0.19 MMt of capacity. Notably, each of these estimates relies on significant assumptions regarding reservoir thickness, porosity, permeability, and CG needed for operation. Much research is needed to understand the true site-specific storage resource potential of each formation. Using the Dunham Salt Interval for cavern development may result in as much as 4.79 MMt (up to 2.87 MMt working gas) of H 2 storage potential. An important note for consideration is that the values presented here need significantly more geological characterization and engineering assessments prior to gaining confidence in performance. This will be a focal point for future research and development needs. The basinwide evaluation also indicated that North Dakota has significant H 2 generation potential, with estimates up to a possible 13 MMt annually, suggesting a substantial opportunity for H 2 market development and thus the need for commercial-scale H 2 storage to facilitate growth and resilience. Key Recommendations 1. Conduct detailed site characterization (3D seismic, well logs, core sampling) to reduce geologic uncertainty. 2. Perform techno-economic analyses incorporating market, regulatory, and incentive frameworks. 3. Investigate long-term interactions among H 2 , CGs, well materials, and formations to assess risks. 4. Develop pilot- and field-scale demonstrations to validate models and establish best practices.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Baltimore Energy & Infrastructure: Assessing Urban Heat Vulnerability in Baltimore Neighborhoods to Inform Transportation Resiliency Planning Efforts

Across the world, climate change is altering cities and their local climate systems. Following global trends of rising mean temperatures, Baltimore, Maryland is projected to experience more frequent extreme heat events. Exacerbated by Urban Heat Island (UHI) effects, residents of the city face high temperatures from limited tree canopy, highly paved and impervious surfaces, limited air flow, and high concentrations of localized emissions. Urban heat is dispersed asymmetrically, with historically marginalized populations experiencing disproportionately severe heat. Recognizing the impacts of extreme urban heat, the Maryland Transit Administration (MTA) collaborated with us, the Spring 2024 Goddard Energy and Infrastructure NASA DEVELOP team to assess urban impacts of MTA users and assets and explore opportunities to enhance resiliency planning. We evaluated the feasibility of NASA Earth observations (EOs) in visualizing heat vulnerability in Baltimore City and County. We mapped UHI and extreme heat using remote sensing observations, tailored a Heat Priority Score (HPS) to analyze heat data in tandem with socioeconomic data from American Community Survey (ACS), and utilized SOlar and LongWave Environmental Irradiance Geometry (SOLWEIG) model to estimate MTA riders’ thermal comfort. NASA EOs served to quantify the distribution and severity of extreme heat at the block group level, which was found to correlate with a lack of vegetation and presence of densely built-up surroundings. The HPS revealed that extreme heat events most negatively impact communities that exhibit social vulnerability through indicators such as age, race, and income. These findings will inform neighborhood resiliency plans for the MTA that can be incorporated into their Adaptation Resiliency Toolbox (ART).

Baltimore,↗

PV Storm Hardening Costs

While solar arrays often survive severe weather events, systems are occasionally compromised and left unable to provide power. For PV systems to act as resilient power providers, they must remain operational. Building a system that is more likely to survive a storm comes at a cost, though. Previous efforts have identified various system measures and practices that can increase the likelihood of a PV system surviving a severe weather event. But what is the cost premium for a storm hardened PV system? This report provides initial estimates for the up-front cost premiums for various methods of storm hardening PV systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Comparison of total emitted solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) and top-of-canopy (TOC) SIF in estimating photosynthesis

We report many studies have shown that solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) has a good potential to predict gross primary production (GPP) of vegetation. What we measured by remote sensing or near-surface platforms is top-of-canopy (TOC) SIF (SIF toc ), which is not necessarily equal or proportional to total emitted SIF (SIF tot ) from the entire canopy due to the (re)absorption and scattering effects. However, photosynthesis, the process that plants use to fix carbon from the atmosphere, occurs at the entire vertical canopy. Here, by using the recollision theory, we calculated SIF tot at 760 nm from the measured SIF toc , hyperspectral reflectance (R), canopy interception (i) and leaf albedo (ω l ). Among them, both SIF toc and R can be obtained from concurrent TOC spectral measurements; i and ω l in the near-infrared region can be estimated from the open access datasets with a good accuracy. Our result confirms that the measured SIF toc only accounts for a small fraction of SIF tot : the above-the-canopy sensor can only “see” on average 22.9% of SIF tot at Harvard Forest. SIF tot has the following advantages over SIF toc in estimating GPP: (1) SIF tot improves the diurnal estimate of canopy GPP, especially capable to capture the midday depression of photosynthesis which may cause the large discrepancies between SIF toc and GPP on a diurnal basis, (2) SIF tot produces a stronger correlation with GPP from plants with complex canopy structure or under sky conditions with more diffuse irradiance, and (3) the SIF tot -GPP relationship shows a stronger resilience to environmental stresses. The fluorescence escape ratio (f esc ), the ratio between SIF toc multiplied by π and SIF tot , is mostly determined by the sun-canopy-sensor geometry and leaf inclination distribution. The effect of LAI and the leaf chlorophyll concentration on f esc is marginal at the 760 nm wavelength. Our results suggest that converting SIF toc into SIF tot provides a better tool to understand and estimate GPP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Hierarchical Control Architecture: Utilization of Behind-the-Meter Appliances with Increased Visibility and Controllability

Optimal operations of distribution systems to enhance reliability and resiliency can be achieved if information with higher fidelity can be accessed from grid premise devices. This paper discusses a hierarchical control architecture that can introduce higher visibility and controllability by utilizing the estimated injection and absorption of different behind-the-meter controllable loads, and DERs, including EVs, within a premise. The acquired information is used to make control decisions for scheduling the premise appliances to reduce energy consumptions. The premise controller can also optimize the consumptions on a day-to-day basis in addition to taking input signals from the utility operators to support grid-service events (e.g., peak shaving). The entire control architecture is designed in a modular and scalable fashion that provides benefits to the utility from the reuse of existing infrastructure while creating opportunities for various grid services to be enabled by the operation of premise controllers.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Airports as Energy Nodes Activity Summary

Advanced aircraft concepts that use non-traditional aviation energy storage methods such as batteries or cryogenic hydrogen are in development and expected to enter regular service at airports worldwide within the next decade. The energy needs for these aircraft may quickly overwhelm the existing energy infrastructure at airports, particularly at smaller and more remote facilities. Without energy upgrades, these airports will not be able to host these advanced vehicles, but without the advanced vehicle traffic, these airports will not have the rationale or funding to build up their energy infrastructure. The Airports as Energy Nodes (ÆNodes) activity, a collaboration between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), was executed to understand and model the energy needs that advanced aircraft concepts may levy on these smaller airports, determine cost-effective approaches to enhance the airport energy infrastructure, and demonstrate the enhanced resilience of these energy infrastructure upgrades to the airport and surrounding community via “digital twin” simulation at relevant energy and dynamic time scales. The ÆNodes team also investigated future reference aircraft designs and materials to enable cryogenic hydrogen storage for aircraft. The ÆNodes team conducted analysis at two U.S. airport partner sites — Winchester Regional Airport in Winchester, Virginia, and Tweed/New Haven Airport in New Haven, Connecticut. The goal of this partnership was to develop data and reference infrastructure designs that could accommodate advanced aircraft in the future at these airports while also enhancing the resiliency of the energy supply to the surrounding airport community, which could be used to capture funding to enable the infrastructure upgrades. Over the course of the study, a method was developed to estimate air traffic requiring advanced energy services over the course of a year using a mix of historical data and companion studies on advanced aircraft transportation networks. The study has concluded at NASA but continues at NREL, who will develop a final report discussing the energy infrastructure upgrades and digital twin results. Preliminary results indicate that unrestricted adoption of advanced battery-electric aircraft may double traffic at these airports and increase peak daily power usage by an order of magnitude, while increase electricity energy needs by a factor of two to four. The infrastructure upgrades necessary to accommodate these increased energy needs could be used to provide enhanced energy services to the airport community to offset the cost and increase the utility of the upgrades, which will be described in the NREL final report.

Airports↗

Exploring the potential of non-residential solar to tackle energy injustice

Despite the observed disparities in US residential solar deployment, there is limited insight into whether these disparities exist for the non-residential sector. Here we use DeepSolar, a comprehensive photovoltaic database constructed with satellite imagery, to assess solar deployment equity based on the US Justice40’s disadvantaged community measure. We find that disadvantaged communities have less non-residential solar (–38%), but this disparity is notably higher for residential solar (–67%). Across-state variations are consistent for residential solar (–81% to –49%) yet highly heterogeneous for non-residential solar (–66% to +34%). Using scenarios to explore the potential for microgrids powered by solar on building rooftops larger than 1,000 square metres, we estimate that 63% of disadvantaged communities could meet at least 20% of annual residential electricity demand. Furthermore, our research argues for a new focus on non-residential solar as a way to strengthen resilience and accelerate local deployment of clean energy resources to promote energy justice.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Using machine learning to improve land use/cover characterization and projection for scenario-based global modeling

The characterization of the land surface in models is critical for robust estimation of the water cycle and associated extremes. Land use determines water demand, and land cover affects water availability. The interaction between water demand and availability is the key determinant of whether systems are resilient to variability in the overall water cycle. Furthermore, activities such as irrigation and deforestation or afforestation may influence regional to global precipitation patterns, depending on the extent of the activity. Thus this proposed work aims to address the following question: How does integrated land use/cover data and improved land use/cover projection, as informed by machine learning approaches, better resolve human-earth system resilience to water cycle variability and extremes?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Finding and Fixing Food System Emissions: The Double Helix of Science and Policy

Improving estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from food production, supply, consumption, and disposal is fundamental to identifying effective policy solutions. Through broader awareness of the food-climate nexus, climate mitigation as well as resilience can be enhanced. However, work is needed to address knowledge gaps, promote better policies and improve public understanding of issues related to the food system and climate change. The intention of this paper is not only to highlight the need for better scientific understanding of the processes through which GHGs are emitted—from production to processing, from supply chains and retail to food preparation and waste (figure 1)—but also to integrate science and policy in order to scale up impact on climate change action.

food systems↗

Ecosystem age-class dynamics and distribution in the LPJ-wsl v2.0 global ecosystem model

Forest ecosystem processes follow classic responses with age, peaking production around canopy closure and declining thereafter. Although age dynamics might be more dominant in certain regions over others, demographic effects on net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) are bound to exist. Yet, explicit representation of ecosystem demography is notably absent in many global ecosystem models. This is concerning because the global community relies on these models to regularly update our collective understanding of the global carbon cycle. This paper aims to present the technical developments of a computationally efficient approach for representing age-class dynamics within a global ecosystem model, the Lund–Potsdam–Jena – Wald, Schnee, Landschaft version 2.0 (LPJ-wsl v2.0) dynamic global vegetation model and to determine if explicit representation of demography influenced ecosystem stocks and fluxes at global scales or at the level of a grid cell. The modeled age classes are initially created by simulated fire and prescribed wood harvesting or abandonment of managed land, otherwise aging naturally until an additional disturbance is simulated or prescribed. In this paper, we show that the age module can capture classic demographic patterns in stem density and tree height compared to inventory data, and that simulated patterns of ecosystem function follow classic responses with age. We also present two scientific applications of the model to assess the modeled age-class distribution over time and to determine the demographic effect on ecosystem fluxes relative to climate. Simulations show that, between 1860 and 2016, zonal age distribution on Earth was driven predominately by fire, causing a 45- to 60-year difference in ages between older boreal (50–90° N) and younger tropical (23° S–23° N) ecosystems. Between simulation years 1860 and 2016, land-use change and land management were responsible for a decrease in zonal age by −6 years in boreal and by −21 years in both temperate (23–50° N) and tropical latitudes, with the anthropogenic effect on zonal age distribution increasing over time. A statistical model helped to reduce LPJ-wsl v2.0 complexity by predicting per-grid-cell annual NPP and Rh fluxes by three terms: precipitation, temperature, and age class; at global scales, R2 was between 0.95 and 0.98. As determined by the statistical model, the demographic effect on ecosystem function was often less than 0.10 kg C/sq. myr but as high as 0.60 kg C/sq. myr where the effect was greatest. In the eastern forests of North America, the simulated demographic effect was of similar magnitude, or greater than, the effects of climate; simulated demographic effects were similarly important in large regions of every vegetated continent. Simulated spatial datasets are provided for global ecosystem ages and the estimated coefficients for effects of precipitation, temperature and demography on ecosystem function. The discussion focuses on our finding of an increasing role of demography in the global carbon cycle, the effect of demography on relaxation times (resilience) following a disturbance event and its implications at global scales, and a finding of a 40 Pg C increase in biomass turnover when including age dynamics at global scales. Whereas time is the only mechanism that increases ecosystem age, any additional disturbance not explicitly modeled will decrease age. The LPJ-wsl v2.0 age module represents another step forward towards understanding the role of demography in global ecosystems.

LPJ-wsl↗

A Distributionally Robust Resilience Enhancement Strategy for Distribution Networks Considering Decision-Dependent Contingencies

When performing the resilience enhancement for distribution networks, there are two obstacles to reliably model the uncertain contingencies: 1) decision-dependent uncertainty (DDU) due to various line hardening decisions, and 2) distributional ambiguity due to limited outage information during extreme weather events (EWEs). Here, to address these two challenges, this paper develops scenario-wise decision-dependent ambiguity sets (SWDD-ASs), where the DDU and distributional ambiguity inherent in EWE-induced contingencies are simultaneously captured for each possible EWE scenario. Then, a two-stage tri-level decision-dependent distributionally robust resilient enhancement (DD-DRRE) model is formulated, whose outputs include the optimal line hardening, distributed generation (DG) allocation, and proactive network reconfiguration strategy under the worst-case distributions in SWDD-ASs. Subsequently, the DD-DRRE model is equivalently recast to a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP)-based master problem and multiple scenario-wise subproblems, facilitating the adoption of a customized column-and-constraint generation (C&CG) algorithm. Finally, case studies demonstrate a remarkable improvement in the out-of-sample performance of our model, compared to its prevailing stochastic and robust counterparts. Moreover, the potential values of incorporating the ambiguity and distributional information are quantitatively estimated, providing a useful reference for planners with different budgets and risk-aversion levels.

decision-dependent uncertainty↗

Peer-to-Peer Energy Management System for Distributed Microgrid Coordination [SWR-21-92]

Resiliency is one of the key challenges in today's power system. Natural disasters and cyber-attacks both can limit communications between microgrids and the central management system. Thus, having a Distributed Microgrid Coordination (DMC) algorithm can improve the system resiliency, which enables the microgrids to operate without communication with the central management system. Peer-to-Peer Energy Management System for Distributed Microgrid Coordination adopts a primal-dual approach, where each microgrid controller keeps a local estimate of the dual variables. The estimate is updated with local measurements and peer-to-peer communication, leading to a fully distributed algorithm. While the DMC is developed for microgrid coordination, it can be used for general distributed control purpose.

Li, Yashen↗

Generic Spiking Architecture (GenSA)

Neuromorphic devices are a rapidly growing area of interest in industry, with machines in production by IBM and Intel, among others. These devices promise to reduce size, weight and power (SWaP) costs while increasing resilience and facilitating high- performance computing (HPC). Each device will favor some set of algorithms, but this relationship has not been thoroughly studied. The field of neuromorphic computing is so new that existing devices were designed with merely estimated use-cases in mind. To better understand the fit between neuromorphic algorithms and machines, a simulated machine can be configured to any point in the design space. This will identify better choices of devices, and perhaps guide the market in new directions. The design of a generic spiking machine generalizes existing examples while also looking forward to devices that haven't been built yet. Each parameter is specified, along the approach/mechanism by which the relevant component is implemented in the simulator.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Transformational Regional-Scale Earthquake Simulations with the DOE EarthQuake SIMulation Exascale Framework

Earthquakes present worldwide risk to economic and human safety. The 2023 earthquakes in Turkiye provided a reminder of the potential for catastrophic consequences with 50,700 deaths and 15.7 million people affected. The ability to predict ground motions and infrastructure damage for earthquakes continues to be a challenging problem for scientists and engineers. Until now, estimates of ground motions have been performed empirically by looking at sparse data from past earthquakes. This approach can provide statistical information on intensity amplitudes but cannot inform site-specific ground motions essential to developing the most effective resilience. Interest has grown in large-scale computational models to simulate earthquakes at regional scale. The U.S. Department of Energy EarthQuake SIMulation (EQSIM) framework was developed for regional-scale earthquake simulations at unprecedented fidelity, taking advantage of emerging GPU-accelerated systems. This article describes the EQSIM workflow and demonstrates regional-scale simulations with the new computational capability available to scientists in their quest to mitigate future disasters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Mitigating Interference from Urban Air Mobility Vehicles on Satellite Communication Links by Using Vortex Radiometry

Vortex radiometers (VRs) establish an early warning system for communication channels by generating concentric annular beam patterns around the active link. Peaks in received power are monitored as interfering signals traverse overhead, allowing the VR to estimate source velocity. From this information the VR determines 1) when a fade will occur, 2) how long the fade will persist for and 3) how intense the fade will be. This paper demonstrates how VRs can increase the resilience of communication systems used in urban air mobility applications.

Schemmel, Peter J.↗

Optimum Operation of Microgrid Systems that Employ PV Solar and Battery Systems

On a global scale, over 1.3 billion lack access to electricity (85% in rural areas), and approximately 2.8 billion people rely on traditional biomass for cooking. The World Health Organization estimates that household air pollution from inefficient stoves causes more premature deaths than malaria, tuberculosis, and HIV/AIDS. Increasing demand for energy has led to dramatic increases in emissions. The need for reliable electricity and limiting emissions drives research on Resilient Hybrid Energy Systems (RHESs), which provide cleaner energy by combining wind, solar, and biomass energy with traditional fossil energy, increasing production efficiency and reliability and reducing generating costs and emissions. Microgrids have been shown as an efficient means of implementing RHESs, with some focused mainly on reducing the environmental impact of electric power generation. The technical challenges of designing, implementing, and applying microgrids involve conducting a cradle-to-grave Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) to evaluate these systems’ environmental and economic performance under diverse operating conditions to evaluate resiliency. A sample RHES was developed and used to demonstrate the implementation in rural applications, where the system can provide reliable electricity for heating, cooling, lighting, and pumping clean water. The model and findings can be utilized by other regions around the globe facing similar challenges.

Nagapurkar, Prashant↗