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DOE OSTI2022

Learning stochastic dynamics with statistics-informed neural network

We introduce a machine-learning framework named statistics-informed neural network (SINN) for learning stochastic dynamics from data. This new architecture was theoretically inspired by a universal approximation theorem for stochastic systems, which we introduce in this paper, and the projection-operator formalism for stochastic modeling. Here, we devise mechanisms for training the neural network model to reproduce the correct statistical behavior of a target stochastic process. Numerical simulation results demonstrate that a well-trained SINN can reliably approximate both Markovian and non-Markovian stochastic dynamics. We demonstrate the applicability of SINN to coarse-graining problems and the modeling of transition dynamics. Furthermore, we show that the obtained reduced-order model can be trained on temporally coarse-grained data and hence is well suited for rare-event simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Performing Numerical Analysis of Cybersecurity Options Using Dynamic Risk Analysis Tool EMRALD

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Considering a cyber threat should involve defense-in-depth methods and a quantitative or numerical evaluation of overall effectiveness against dynamic, time-dependent attacks to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related safety is a requirement set by North American Electric Reliability and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. They are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks may focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want to know business reliability and recovery from those threats, and that requires modeling physical behavior of the targets. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with different tools having issues such as state-base explosion. Dynamic modeling enables time and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic numerical risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies. Keywords: cyber modeling; cyber-physical systems; numerical cyber modeling

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Component Modeling, Co-Optimization, and Trade-Space Evaluation (FY2021 Annual Progress Report)

This project is intended to support the development of new traction drive systems that meet the targets of 100 kW/L for power electronics and 50 kW/L for electric machines with reliable operation to 300,000 miles. To meet these goals, new designs must be identified that make use of state-of-the-art and next-generation electronic materials and design methods. Designs must exploit synergies between components, for example converters designed for high-frequency switching using wide band gap devices and ceramic capacitors. This project includes: (1) a survey of available technologies; (2) the development of design tools that consider the converter volume and performance; (3) exercising the design software to evaluate performance gaps and predict the impact of certain technologies and design approaches, i.e. GaN semiconductors, ceramic capacitors, and select topologies; and (4) building and testing hardware prototypes to validate models and concepts. Early instantiations of the design tools enable co-optimization of the power module and passive elements and provide some design guidance; later instantiations will enable the co-optimization of inverter and machine. Prototype testing begins with evaluation of simpler conversion topologies (i.e. the half-bridge boost converter) and progresses with fabrication of prototype inverter drives.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Electric Drive Technologies Research: ELT223 Component Modeling, Co-Optimization, and Trade-Space Evaluation Annual Report

This project is intended to support the development of new traction drive systems that meet the targets of 100 kW/L for power electronics and 50 kW/L for electric machines with reliable operation to 300,000 miles. To meet these goals, new designs must be identified that make use of state-of-the-art and next-generation electronic materials and design methods. Designs must exploit synergies between components, for example converters designed for high-frequency switching using wide band gap (WBG) devices and ceramic capacitors. This project included: (1) a survey of available technologies; (2) investigating new technologies, that for example, reduce volume of thermal management or magnetic components; (3) the development of computer aided design tools that consider the converter volume, reliability, and electrical performance; (4) exercising the design software to evaluate performance gaps and predict the impact of certain technologies and design approaches, i.e. GaN semiconductors, ceramic capacitors, ceramic thermal management components, and select topologies; (5) building and testing hardware prototypes to validate models and concepts. The design tools enable co-optimization of the power module and passive elements and provide some design guidance. At the end of the project, new advanced computing methods, such as machine learning approaches, were considered.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Comparative Analysis of ANN and LSTM Prediction Accuracy and Cooling Energy Savings through AHU-DAT Control in an Office Building

This paper proposes the optimal algorithm for controlling the HVAC system in the target building. Previous studies have analyzed pre-selected algorithms without considering the unique data characteristics of the target building, such as location, climate conditions, and HVAC system type. To address this, we compare the accuracy of cooling load prediction using ANN and LSTM algorithms, widely used in building energy research, to determine the optimal algorithm for HVAC control in the target building. We develop a simulation model calibrated with actual data to ensure data reliability and compare the energy consumption of the existing HVAC control method and the two algorithms-based methods. Results show that the ANN algorithm, with a CV(RMSE) of 12.7%, has a higher prediction accuracy than the LSTM algorithm, CV(RMSE) of 17.3%, making it a more suitable algorithm for HVAC control. Furthermore, implementing the ANN-based approach results in a 3.2% cooling energy reduction from the optimal control of Air Handling Unit (AHU) Discharge Air Temperature (DAT) compared to the fixed DAT at 12.8 °C in a representative day. This study demonstrates that ML-based HVAC system control can effectively reduce cooling energy consumption in HVAC systems, providing an effective strategy for energy conservation and improved HVAC system efficiency.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hierarchical, Grid-Aware, and Economically Optimal Coordination of Distributed Energy Resources in Realistic Distribution Systems

Renewable portfolio standards are targeting high levels of variable solar photovoltaics (PV) in electric distribution systems, which makes reliability more challenging to maintain for distribution system operators (DSOs). Distributed energy resources (DERs), including smart, connected appliances and PV inverters, represent responsive grid resources that can provide flexibility to support the DSO in actively managing their networks to facilitate reliability under extreme levels of solar PV. This flexibility can also be used to optimize system operations with respect to economic signals from wholesale energy and ancillary service markets. Here, we present a novel hierarchical scheme that actively controls behind-the-meter DERs to reliably manage each unbalanced distribution feeder and exploits the available flexibility to ensure reliable operation and economically optimizes the entire distribution network. Each layer of the scheme employs advanced optimization methods at different timescales to ensure that the system operates within both grid and device limits. The hierarchy is validated in a large-scale realistic simulation based on data from the industry. Simulation results show that coordination of flexibility improves both system reliability and economics, and enables greater penetration of solar PV. Discussion is also provided on the practical viability of the required communications and controls to implement the presented scheme within a large DSO.

distribution network↗

DOE OSTI2022

Irradiation Facilities and Irradiation Methods for High Power Target

High Power Target systems are key elements in future neutrino and other rare particle production in accelerators. These systems transform an intense source of protons into secondary particles of interest to enable new scientific discoveries. As beam intensity and energies increase, target systems face significant challenges. Radiation damages and thermal shocks in target materials were identified as the leading cross-cutting challenges of high-power target facilities. Target material R&D to address these challenges are essential to enable and ensure reliable operation of future-generation accelerators. Irradiation facilities and alternative methods are critical to provide a full support of material R&D and better address these critical challenges.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic Building Load Control to Facilitate High Penetration of Solar Photovoltaic Generation (Final Technical Report)

Solar photovoltaic (PV) resources are the most common form of distributed generation in residential and commercial customer premises within electric distribution networks. A higher penetration of PV generation in distribution circuits will impose challenges on maintaining service voltages within the range of industry standards, power quality, and power flow. Buildings consume 74% of the electricity produced in the United States, and a significant portion of the building load is dispatchable, making them responsive to electrical grid needs. Oak Ridge National Laboratory—in collaboration with Southern Company; the University of Tennessee, Knoxville; and the Georgia Institute of Technology—is examining the PV integration issues in distribution-level electrical grids and developing integrated demand-side control and communication systems to enable responsive loads. The proposed responsive loads mechanism performs renewable generation following to increase the penetration of solar PV within each feeder. The specific objectives of this project are to (1) examine distribution-level PV integration scenarios to understand requirements, (2) undertake an end-to-end simulation-based design of a distributed control strategy of loads geographically near the PV generation asset to minimize the effect on the distribution feeder, (3) deploy and demonstrate the control technology developed in partnership with utilities, and (4) perform a scalability analysis at the utility scale. This 3-year integrated project aims to develop, demonstrate, and validate demand-side control technology to enable increased the penetration of renewables while mitigating challenges that arise due to their intermittency. Activities in Budget Period (BP) 1 focused on a literature review and the formal design of a control system for integrating local distribution with generation and loads. The team used modeling and simulation to evaluate the impact of varying buildings loads, variable PV generation, and power flow dynamics on the distribution circuit. The dynamic models developed in BP 1 were used in BP 2 to develop a model-based control design and a test bed. The test bed has enabled the simulation-based testing and comparison of different control designs and formulations applied to different configurations of the distribution grid, PVs, and building loads. The control approaches developed in BP 2 were implemented in BP 3 in the form of hardware deployed at the Central Baptist Church (CBC) in Knoxville, Tennessee, for testing and evaluation. The outcome of this project was the development and demonstration of open-source, low-cost, low-touch sensing and control retrofits to distributed PV generation and building loads that, in a coordinated fashion, provide the load-shaping response needed to integrate high levels of renewable penetration. This research addresses the target metrics by dynamically controlling a load with solar generation variability to minimize the extent of two-way power flow, enhance reliability, facilitate high PV penetration (>100% of peak load in a line segment), and generate scalable software and hardware solutions adaptable to any penetration levels. The research and development activities are focused and designed to be impactful within the relevant 2020 targets time frame.An accurate open-source integration simulation framework for end-to-end control design was developed and deployed at the CBC facility for testing and evaluation. This final report provides a detailed review of the technical results achieved during this 3-year integrated project. A novel spectral analysis of PV data is demonstrated to derive the requirements of the control design. A detailed simulation-based analysis of PV integration at increasing penetration levels is presented using 1 year of PV data to demonstrate the impact on the distribution circuits. Two different control strategies were developed and demonstrated via simulation to track variable PV generation with adaptive load dispatch. The report concludes with a summary of accomplishments and recommendations for a path forward.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Robustness of Deep Learning Classification to Adversarial Input on GPUs: Asynchronous Parallel Accumulation Is a Source of Vulnerability

The ability of machine learning (ML) classification models to resist small, targeted input perturbations—known as adversarial attacks—is a key measure of their safety and reliability. We show that floating-point non associativity (FPNA) coupled with asynchronous parallel programming on GPUs is sufficient to result in misclassification, without any perturbation to the input. Additionally, we show that this misclassification is particularly significant for inputs close to the decision boundary and that standard adversarial robustness results may be overestimated up to 4.6 when not considering machine-level details. We first study a linear classifier, before focusing on standard Graph Neural Network (GNN) architectures and datasets used in robustness assessments. We develop a novel black-box attack using Bayesian optimization to discover external workloads that can change the instruction scheduling which bias the output of reductions on GPUs and reliably lead to misclassification. Motivated by these results, we present a new learnable permutation (LP) gradient-based approach to learning floating-point operation orderings that lead to misclassifications. The LP approach provides a worst-case estimate in a computationally efficient manner, avoiding the need to run identical experiments tens of thousands of times over a potentially large set of possible GPU states or architectures. Finally, using instrumentation-based testing, we investigate parallel reduction ordering across different GPU architectures under external background workloads, when utilizing multi-GPU virtualization, and when applying power capping. Our results demonstrate that parallel reduction ordering varies significantly across architectures under the first two conditions, substantially increasing the search space required to fully test the effects of this parallel scheduler-based vulnerability. These results and the methods developed here can help to include machine-level considerations into adversarial robustness assessments, which can make a difference in safety and mission critical applications.

Shanmugavelu, Sanjif [Maxeler Technologies, a Groq↗

DOE OSTI2025

Emerging Tools to Support DILI Assessment in Clinical Trials with Abnormal Baseline Serum Liver Tests or Pre-existing Liver Diseases

Abstract Based on the late Dr. Hyman Zimmerman’s observation that hepatocellular drug-induced liver injury (DILI) leading to jaundice carries a ≥ 10% fatality risk (coined as Hy’s law by others), evaluation of Drug-Induced Serious Hepatotoxicity (eDISH) continues to play a central role in the assessment of a study drug’s liability for acute hepatocellular DILI. The eDISH identifies drugs in clinical trials with DILI fatality (death or transplant) risk that may be unacceptable in a post-market setting. As a two-dimensional graph that plots peak total bilirubin (TB) versus peak serum aminotransferase levels for each patient during study drug or comparator treatment, eDISH identifies potential cases of acute, modest, and serious hepatocellular DILI for in-depth analysis of liver tests (LT) and clinical course so that the likelihood of causal association with the study drug can be determined. Unfortunately, the generalizable utility of this tool only pertains to trials enrolling patients with normal or near normal (NNN) baseline (BL) serum LTs. The eDISH does not necessarily apply to trials of patients with abnormal baseline (ABN-BL) LTs that often coincide with underlying liver disorders. Because drug development programs being reviewed by the FDA increasingly target liver disorders, we are often challenged to evaluate DILI risk in trials of patients with ABN-BL LTs. Also, the high background prevalence of metabolic dysfunction associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) means patients with LTs above NNN may need to be enrolled in trials treating non-liver disorders to reflect the target population. Such study populations create challenges for industry and regulators because eDISH may not reliably categorize or identify potential cases of DILI for further analysis, as it so efficiently does in NNN-BL trials. We describe the main functionalities of eDISH in NNN-BL trials to understand what should be emulated by new tools or eDISH modifications. We then discuss non-eDISH–based plots that may be useful in ABN-BL trials.

Amirzadegan, Jasmine↗

DOE OSTI2025

Architecture of the personnel protection systems for Spallation Neutron Source Second Target Station

The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is implementing a major upgrade to the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) facility, encompassing the addition of the Second Target Station (STS). Preliminary design reviews have been conducted on several STS Personnel Protection Systems (PPS). The reviews focused primarily on the integration with the existing SNS PPS, the new proton transport tunnel, and the target areas. Development of the PPS is ongoing, to ensure a coherent safety system with the mission of protecting users and workers from prompt radiation hazards while providing high beam availability to operations. The STS PPS element in the Integrated Control System (ICS) is a facility-wide system composed of multiple safety subsystems, including the Ring to Second Target (RTST) beam transport tunnel, Target, Bunker and Instruments. Personnel working in all these geographic areas are protected by modular reliable PPS solutions. The safety system enforces access controls, radiation monitoring, beam destination control, and application of critical device inhibit upon detection of abnormal condition. It uses well-documented processes, Common Industrial Protocol (CIP) safety, pulsed test, and redundancy to achieve the desired Safety Integrity Level (SIL). This paper gives an architectural overview of the STS PPS and a detailed safety plan for the SNS facility, addressing safety solutions and human factors.

Michaelides, Tommy [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000190499869)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Extend an innovative HPC-Compatible Multiple Temporal-spatial Resolution Concurrent Finite Element Modeling Approach to Guide Laser Powder Bed Fusion Additive

Laser power bed fusing (PBF) additive manufacturing is a key enabling technology to manufacture highly complex and integrated automotive structures. However, the geometric complexity of PBF-AM technique also leads to highly non-uniform heating and cooling rate in the manufactured part, which may cause flaw formation and produce excessive and nonuniform residual stresses, which increase quality uncertainties and manufacture issues, leading to increases in cost and energy consumption in the form of rejected parts. In this research project, we developed an innovative Multi-Spatial-Temporal-Resolution Finite Element (MUST-FE) method and completed the corresponding high performance computation (HPC) platform-based in-house code, which enables high accuracy prediction of temperature and residual stress fields for component-scale PBF-AM manufacture in efficient computation time. The MUST-FE model is calibrated and validated with a “2D pad” AlSi10Mg experiments by matching the melt pool shape and dimension, and with a “XY-cross” AlSi10Mg experiment by matching the thermal distortion and residual stress. The innovative multi-resolution and concurrent modeling approach adopted in this code ensures accuracy and computational efficiency, which will enable energy-efficient and high-yield, low-cost manufacturing of optimized, qualifiable automotive structures and contribute towards reaching technical targets outlined in AMO’s Program Plan to develop additive manufacturing systems that deliver consistently reliable parts with predictable properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

SMART SiC Power ICs: Scalable, Manufacturable, and Robust Technology for SiC Power Integrated Circuits (Final Technical Report)

This collaborative project was initiated with the goal of developing Scalable, Manufacturable, and Robust Technology for SiC Power Integrated Circuits (SMART SiC Power ICs). In pursuit of this objective, innovative designs and fabrication processes were implemented, enabling the development of large-scale (>1 cm²) SiC Complementary Metal-Oxide-Semiconductor (CMOS) integrated circuits and high-voltage (400–600 V) lateral power MOSFETs (HV-LDMOS) on 150 mm 4H-SiC substrates. The resulting SMART SiC Power ICs are tailored to support a wide range of applications requiring diverse voltage and power levels, including automotive systems, industrial equipment, electronic data processing, energy harvesting, and power conditioning. To achieve the proposed ‘SMART’ technology for SiC ICs, the team focused on 1) the Development of highly scalable CMOS (with high channel mobilities for n-type and p-type MOSFETs), LDMOS (~600V, 10A rated), and IC technologies, 2) Establishment of a manufacturable process baseline in a production-grade-, 150mm, SiC fabrication facility, and 3) Demonstration of SMART SiC ICs. The project initially comprised of fabricating 5 lots. In lot 1 monolithic integration using a single process was achieved. Here, we were able to successfully accomplish Integrated HV NMOSFET with LV CMOS on N-epi/N+ Substrate. The HV NMOS demonstrated a Breakdown Voltage (BV) more than 600V. Circuit demonstration of CMOS was also another achievement from this lot. In lot 2, priority was in place for isolation and integration. Here we addressed the isolation concerns and integrated the HV NMOS and LV CMOS using the N-epi/P-epi/N+ substrate. Similar to the lot 1, we were able to achieve a BV of 600 V for HV NMOS. Optimized gate oxide process with high channel mobilities, better gate oxide reliability, development of SPICE models, successful ohmic process development, novel wafer area saving design layouts, P+ isolation schemes with channeling implantations and high temperature operational circuits demonstrations are some of the key highlights from lot 1 and lot2. In lot 3, discrete device performances of HV NMOS with a BV ~700V and reliable LV CMOS performances were achieved. Also, novel architectural solutions were successfully implemented to suppress the electric field crowding at the gate oxide for reliable operations. In lot 4, half bridge power driver ICs with a conversion efficiency of (target 90% to 95%) in the 1-5MHz switching frequency range for output power between 25 W to 3 kW have been included in. However, due to the unfortunate events of sudden foundry shutdown (SiCamore Semi) the processing of lot 4 wafers came to a complete stop (January 2024). Arrangements have recently been made to shift the fabrication to another foundry, General Electric Aerospace. The fabrication process now on course (as of December 2024). Characterizations are delayed due to this unfortunate circumstance. The proposed trench architectural-based devices and ICs (lot 5) underwent modifications from the original project proposal. This change was necessitated by limitations in the availability of trench-based processes at commercial production-grade fabrication facilities in the US. Apart from above achievements, a Process Development Kit (PDK) was successfully developed for planar type SiC CMOS/LDMOS.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Updating the Building Science Advisor (BSA): A Tool to Assist in the Design of Durable Building Envelopes

Predicting the moisture durability of building envelope components remains challenging due to multiple influencing factors, including material selection, assembly positioning, local climate conditions, air tightness, interior environment, and construction quality. Building codes increasingly emphasize energy efficiency through enhanced insulation and tighter envelopes but offer limited guidance on moisture durability considerations. Consequently, builders face uncertainty, particularly as new materials and assemblies enter the market.The Building Science Advisor (BSA) is a free, web-based expert system developed to address these challenges by providing actionable insights into the moisture durability and energy efficiency of both new and retrofit wall designs. Recently updated, we are now providing version 3.0 of the tool. BSA features significant user interface improvements, enhancing navigation and user interaction through a refreshed, intuitive design. Additionally, the tool incorporates a newly developed database containing pre-simulated wall assembly cases, significantly reducing response times and improving the accuracy of moisture durability assessments. Furthermore, the updated BSA includes moisture content as a performance criterion, providing users with a more comprehensive understanding of moisture-related durability risks. These enhancements enable rapid, reliable assessments tailored to specific climate zones and local building practices. BSA continues to offer targeted guidance on wall retrofit scenarios and delivers access to an expanded library of location-specific building science resources.This paper describes these key updates, highlighting the enhanced features, expanded capabilities, and overall improvements to user experience and educational content. The paper includes a demonstration that illustrates how the revised BSA effectively supports practitioners in designing durable, energy-efficient building envelope assemblies.

Salonvaara, Mikael [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000318991554)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Austin Sustainable and Holistic Integration of Energy Storage and Solar PV [Austin SHINES]. Final Report, Version 2

The Austin SHINES project and solution is a software management platform, for an electric grid with a high penetration of dispersed photovoltaic (PV) solar generation sites, which maintains the traditional power quality and reliability associated with grid service. This project developed and deployed the platform as a Distributed Energy Resource Management System (DERMS), engaging multiple advanced controls, to evaluate operation and optimization of a fleet of diverse DER assets, installed at several locations among Austin Energy’s customers and distribution system. The project also produced a methodology to create a replicable DERMS template, adaptable to other regions and market structures. Last, Austin SHINES aimed to demonstrate the solution’s methodology would enable the DER grid ecosystem to serve load at a technical cost (System Levelized Cost of Electricity, or System LCOE) of less than the U.S. Department of Energy SHINES program metric of $0.14/kWh, in a defined boundary, while enabling a high penetration of distributed PV. Research was categorized in 6 reports (Final Deliverables = FD) listed below, with titles and descriptions indicating which area of understanding was investigated: FD-1: System Levelized Cost of Electricity (System LCOE) Methodology The creation and use of the System LCOE to Serve Load metric that encompasses the holistic, system-level costs and benefits of all resources, and enables them to be evaluated based on their ability to support an efficient and low-cost integrated grid ecosystem. FD-2: Software Platform Product Description The creation of new DER control methodologies deployable within a utility-grade software platform that enable DER's to maximize their benefit within a grid, that is capable of serving load enabling a high penetration of distributed PV generation. FD-3: Optimal Design Methodology Optimal design methodologies for individual DER installations that enable utilities to determine the optimal combinations and sizing for individual DER sites. FD-4: Austin SHINES Ownership and Operation Models for DER System Performance A comparison of multiple DER aggregation and ownership methodologies including direct utility control, third-party aggregator, and autonomous. FD-5: Economic Modeling & Optimization A comparison of multiple DER technology mixes and configurations within the distribution system, providing insight into an optimal blend of technologies that best enable the distribution system to serve load at the lowest cost at high penetrations of solar. FD-6: Fielded Assets Deployed DER assets within the Austin Energy SHINES circuits. Austin SHINES provided an opening for state-of-the-art technology products to be deployed, providing a rich opportunity for improving how each of the products perform as stand-alone products, and in concert with other complementary products. The Austin SHINES project comprised of two key metrics for System LCOE: SystemLCOE_SHINES<$0.14/kWh Modeled ΔSystemLCOE_SHINES/ΔSystemLCOE_Base≥20% at same solar penetration The System LCOE calculation uses the costs of the utility-owned infrastructure as it exists today, the cost of the DERs that exist in the system today, and the cost of the purchase of energy from ERCOT wholesale markets over the course of the calendar year. All costs are on an annualized basis. The capital and operating costs are derived from the rate case, which produces a yearly cost. The net cost of energy and services imported to the system is integrated over the test year, as is the load served and solar penetration. The first metric was easily achieved by every scenario considered. The goal was set when the Department of Energy’s SHINES Funding Opportunity Announcement was written in 2015 and was a more difficult target at the time. Due mostly to rapidly declining costs for DERs and the significant decrease in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) energy market prices, which results in lower net cost of energy purchases, the System LCOE is well below this target for all scenarios considered. A fleet of DERs can assume different mixtures, each of which serves the load at a different LCOE. The optimal mixture of DERs serves load at the smallest System LCOE. The second metric (hereinafter %delta metric) asks that the holistic DERMS controls reduce the incremental cost above the baseline of going to a high solar penetration future by at least 20% as compared to the case of a DER deployment with no sophisticated controls (autonomous). Many comparison sets were created throughout this project. Physical technology was installed for informing utility engineering and testing several types of operational control schemes, through the DERMS. The types of operational control which were compared for valuation of the System LCOE Metric were: Holistic control = using the full suite of the DERMS platform to decide and optimize how/why the systems operate depending on weather, market, and reliability signal input. Autonomous control = a local mode at the asset site, wherein a schedule operates the asset, with visibility into performance only No control = the baseline for comparing value against the other two types of control The types of ownership control included: Direct Utility control = the utility dispatches a signal to each asset Third-Party Aggregator = a third party aggregates a fleet of assets and the utility dispatches one signal for all Autonomous = a local mode is set for operation at the asset site, wherein a schedule operates the asset, with visibility into performance only The types of control methodologies deployable within a utility-grade software platform included: Utility Peak Load Reduction = Lower transmission cost obligation Day-Ahead Energy Arbitrage = Realize economic value through price differential Real-Time Price Dispatch = Realize economic value from real-time price spikes Voltage support = Reduce losses and increase solar generation Distribution Congestion Management = Increase local grid reliability Demand Charge Reduction = Lower customer bills and realize system benefit The fielded assets deployed for the project were: Utility Scale Kingsbery Energy Storage System: 1.5 MW / 3 MWh Li-Ion battery storage Mueller Energy Storage System: 1.75 MW / 3.2 MWh Li-Ion battery storage, 7 Energy Storage Units (250 kW each) La Loma Community Solar: 2.6 MW Commercial Scale Aggregated storage installations at 3 sites, with existing solar (300+ kW): One 18 kW / 36 kWh Li-Ion battery storage Two 72 kW / 144 kWh Li-Ion battery storage Residential Scale Aggregated storage installations: -Six stationary battery storage systems (10 kWh each) at homes with existing solar -One Electric Vehicle installed as Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) Utility-Controlled Solar via Smart Inverters at 12 homes Autonomously-Controlled Smart Inverters at 6 homes Over the course of the project, Austin SHINES undertook installing more than 3 MW of distributed battery energy storage, smart PV inverters, a DER control platform, and other enabling technologies utilizing customer and utility locations and aggregation models. All of these resources were to be integrated and optimized at the utility level. DER assets and control methodologies were designed to achieve a credible pathway to a System LCOE for energy delivered to load of $0.14//kWh or less by 2020, while maximizing distributed solar generation and maintaining acceptable standards of power quality. The project also established a template for other regions to follow, to maximize the adoption of distributed solar PV in support of an economic and efficient grid. In total, the Austin SHINES project added value to the DER subject area in each layer of integration. From utility, to commercial to residential scales, the sheer hierarchy of communication and coordination was a significant accomplishment in addition to learnings from what these communications revealed was unique to each. Economically, the most effective method demonstrated was the criticality of planning phases. Contingencies and multiple projection scenarios helped guide the project to deploy optimal design as close as feasible, in real world conditions. The project and reports will serve public benefit by outlining specific areas of DER strategy and installation where many stakeholders and needs can be addressed with improved efficiency. Overall, communities and utilities should use the results to guide the increasing options available for powering the grid with DER, renewables, and carbon considerate energy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Can Wholesale Electricity Markets Achieve Resource Adequacy and High Clean Energy Generation Targets in the Presence of Self-Interested Actors?

Wholesale electricity markets are intended to incentivize system generation investments and operations outcomes that meet evolving system needs. In this work, we evaluate the effectiveness of wholesale market structures, rules and policies in achieving system resource adequacy (RA) and clean energy targets in the presence of self-interested generation investors using the Electricity Markets and Investment Suite Agent-based Simulation (EMIS-AS) model. Results highlight that both capacity markets and operating reserve demand curves (ORDCs) can help achieve a reliable system but with different RA compliance timelines and distribution of generation technologies. Structures with capacity markets tend to favor more capital-intensive peaking technologies while reducing wind and solar build-outs due to suppressed energy and clean energy market prices, particularly in the absence of strong clean energy targets. Conversely, ORDCs improve the commitment of available generation units, but this comes at the expense of higher system costs and renewable generation curtailment. We also find that well-calibrated static capacity demand curves can yield similar reliability and total cost compared to capacity market demand curves informed dynamically by resource adequacy while also yielding stable annual capacity prices. Different approaches to formulating ORDC curves can also yield key trade-offs, namely that a more efficient treatment of storage chronology results in lower ORDC curves and prices, yielding less investment and cost but at the expense of reliability. Finally, the effectiveness of wholesale electricity markets in practically achieving very high clean energy generation targets highly depends on the cost-competitiveness of clean energy technologies that can support critical balancing needs across multiple timescales.

capacity expansion↗

DOE OSTI2024

Wholesale Electricity Markets and Resource Adequacy with High Clean Energy Generation Targets

capacity expansion↗

DOE OSTI2024

Wholesale Electricity Market Design to Support Resource Adequacy

agent based modeling↗