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At least 163 records · Page 9

Focused Metabolite Profiling for Dissecting Cellular and Molecular Processes of Living Organisms in Space Environments

Regulatory control in biological systems is exerted at all levels within the central dogma of biology. Metabolites are the end products of all cellular regulatory processes and reflect the ultimate outcome of potential changes suggested by genomics and proteomics caused by an environmental stimulus or genetic modification. Following on the heels of genomics, transcriptomics, and proteomics, metabolomics has become an inevitable part of complete-system biology because none of the lower "-omics" alone provide direct information about how changes in mRNA or protein are coupled to changes in biological function. The challenges are much greater than those encountered in genomics because of the greater number of metabolites and the greater diversity of their chemical structures and properties. To meet these challenges, much developmental work is needed, including (1) methodologies for unbiased extraction of metabolites and subsequent quantification, (2) algorithms for systematic identification of metabolites, (3) expertise and competency in handling a large amount of information (data set), and (4) integration of metabolomics with other "omics" and data mining (implication of the information). This article reviews the project accomplishments.

Source record↗

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Systems for Disaster Relief: Tornado Alley

Unmanned aerial vehicle systems are currently in limited use for public service missions worldwide. Development of civil unmanned technology in the United States currently lags behind military unmanned technology development in part because of unresolved regulatory and technological issues. Civil unmanned aerial vehicle systems have potential to augment disaster relief and emergency response efforts. Optimal design of aerial systems for such applications will lead to unmanned vehicles which provide maximum potentiality for relief and emergency response while accounting for public safety concerns and regulatory requirements. A case study is presented that demonstrates application of a civil unmanned system to a disaster relief mission with the intent on saving lives. The concept utilizes unmanned aircraft to obtain advanced warning and damage assessments for tornados and severe thunderstorms. Overview of a tornado watch mission architecture as well as commentary on risk, cost, need for, and design tradeoffs for unmanned aerial systems are provided.

DeBusk, Wesley M.↗

NASA UAS Update

Last year may prove to be a pivotal year for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in the Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) arena, especially in relation to routine UAS access to airspace as NASA accepted an invitation to join the UAS Executive Committee (UAS ExCom). The UAS ExCom is a multi-agency, Federal executive-level committee comprised of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), Department of Defense (DoD), Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and NASA with the goals to: 1) Coordinate and align efforts between key Federal Government agencies to achieve routine safe federal public UAS operations in the National Airspace System (NAS); 2) Coordinate and prioritize technical, procedural, regulatory, and policy solutions needed to deliver incremental capabilities; 3) Develop a plan to accommodate the larger stakeholder community at the appropriate time; and 4) Resolve conflicts between Federal Government agencies (FAA, DoD, DHS, and NASA), related to the above goals. The committee was formed in recognition of the need of UAS operated by these agencies to access to the National Airspace System (NAS) to support operational, training, development and research requirements. In order to meet that need, technical, procedural, regulatory, and policy solutions are required to deliver incremental capabilities leading to routine access. The formation of the UAS ExCom is significant in that it represents a tangible commitment by FAA senior leadership to address the UAS access challenge. While the focus of the ExCom is government owned and operated UAS, civil UAS operations are bound to benefit by the progress made in achieving routine access for government UAS. As the UAS ExCom was forming, NASA's Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate began to show renewed interest in UAS, particularly in relation to the future state of the air transportation system under the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). NASA made funding from the American Recovery and Revitalization Act available in order to continue addressing the issue of routine civil UAS access.

Bauer, Jeffrey Ervin↗

Mathematical circulatory system model

A system and method of modeling a circulatory system including a regulatory mechanism parameter. In one embodiment, a regulatory mechanism parameter in a lumped parameter model is represented as a logistic function. In another embodiment, the circulatory system model includes a compliant vessel, the model having a parameter representing a change in pressure due to contraction of smooth muscles of a wall of the vessel.

Lakin, William D.↗

Modularized TGFbeta-Smad Signaling Pathway

The Transforming Growth Factor beta (TGFbeta) signaling pathway is a prominent regulatory signaling pathway controlling various important cellular processes. It can be induced by several factors, including ionizing radiation. It is regulated by Smads in a negative feedback loop through promoting increases in the regulatory Smads in the cell nucleus, and subsequent expression of inhibitory Smad, Smad7 to form a ubiquitin ligase with Smurf targeting active TGF receptors for degradation. In this work, we proposed a mathematical model to study the radiation-induced Smad-regulated TGF signaling pathway. By modularization, we are able to analyze each module (subsystem) and recover the nonlinear dynamics of the entire network system. Meanwhile the excitability, a common feature observed in the biological systems, along the TGF signaling pathway is discussed by mathematical analysis and numerical simulation.

Li, Yongfeng↗

Plasma Cytokine Concentrations Indicate In-vivo Hormonal Regulation of Immunity is Altered During Long-Duration Spaceflight

Background: Aspects of immune system dysregulation associated with long‐duration spaceflight have yet to be fully characterized, and may represent a clinical risk to crewmembers during deep space missions. Plasma cytokine concentration may serve as an indicator of in vivo physiological changes or immune system mobilization. Methods: The plasma concentrations of 22 cytokines were monitored in 28 astronauts during long‐duration spaceflight onboard the International Space Station. Blood samples were collected three times before flight, 3‐5 times during flight (depending on mission duration), at landing and 30 days post‐landing. Analysis was performed by bead array immunoassay. Results: With few exceptions, minimal detectable mean plasma levels (<10 pg/ml) were observed at baseline (launch minus 180) for innate inflammatory cytokines or adaptive regulatory cytokines, however IL‐1ra and several chemokines were constitutively present. An increase in the plasma concentration IL‐8, IL‐1ra, Tpo, CCL4, CXCL5, TNF(alpha), GM‐CSF and VEGF was observed associated with spaceflight. Significant post‐flight increases were observed for IL‐6 and CCL2. No significant alterations were observed during or following spaceflight for adaptive/T‐regulatory cytokines (IL‐2, IFN(gamma), IL‐17, IL4, IL‐5, IL‐10). Conclusions: This pattern of cytokine dysregulation suggests multiple physiological adaptations persist during flight, including inflammation, leukocyte recruitment, angiogenesis and thrombocyte regulation.

Crician, Brian E.↗

Making the Implicit Explicit: Towards an Assurance Case for DO-178C

For about two decades, compliance with Software Considerations in Airborne Systems and Equipment Certification (DO-178B) has been the primary means for receiving regulatory approval for using software on commercial airplanes. A new edition of the standard, DO-178C, was published in December 2011, and regulatory bodies have started the process towards recognizing this edition. The stated purpose of DO-178C remains unchanged from its predecessor: providing guidance “for the production of software for airborne systems and equipment that performs its intended function with a level of confidence in safety that complies with airworthiness requirements.” Within the text of the guidance, little or no rationale is given for how a particular objective or collection of objectives contributes to achieving this purpose. Thus the assurance case for the document is implicit. This paper discusses a current effort to make the implicit explicit. In particular, the paper describes the current status of the research seeking to identify the specific arguments contained in, or implied by, the DO-178C guidance that implicitly justify the assumption that the document meets its stated purpose.

Holloway, C. Michael↗

An Operational Safety and Certification Assessment of a TASAR EFB Application

This paper presents an overview of a Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew Requests (TASAR) Electronic Flight Bag application intended to inform the pilot of trajectory improvement opportunities while en route that result in operational benefits. The results of safety analyses and a detailed review of Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) regulatory documents that establish certification and operational approval requirements are presented for TASAR. The safety analyses indicate that TASAR has a likely Failure Effects Classification of “No Effect,” and at most, is no worse than “Minor Effect.” Based on this safety assessment and the detailed review of FAA regulatory documents that determine certification and operational approval requirements, this study concludes that TASAR can be implemented in the flight deck as a Type B software application hosted on a Class 2 Portable Electronic Device (PED) Electronic Flight Bag (EFB). This implementation approach would provide a relatively low-cost path to certification and operational approval for both retrofit and forward fit implementation, while at the same time facilitating the business case for early ADS-B IN equipage. A preliminary review by FAA certification and operational approvers of the analyses presented here confirmed that the conclusions are appropriate and that TASAR will be considered a Type B application.

Koczo, Stefan↗

Human Factors Guidelines for UAS in the National Airspace System

The ground control stations (GCS) of some UAS have been characterized by less-than-adequate human-system interfaces. In some cases this may reflect a failure to apply an existing regulation or human factors standard. In other cases, the problem may indicate a lack of suitable guidance material. NASA is leading a community effort to develop recommendations for human factors guidelines for GCS to support routine beyond-line-of-sight UAS operations in the national airspace system (NAS). In contrast to regulations, guidelines are not mandatory requirements. However, by encapsulating solutions to identified problems or areas of risk, guidelines can provide assistance to system developers, users and regulatory agencies. To be effective, guidelines must be relevant to a wide range of systems, must not be overly prescriptive, and must not impose premature standardization on evolving technologies. By assuming that a pilot will be responsible for each UAS operating in the NAS, and that the aircraft will be required to operate in a manner comparable to conventionally piloted aircraft, it is possible to identify a generic set of pilot tasks and the information, control and communication requirements needed to support these tasks. Areas where guidelines will be useful can then be identified, utilizing information from simulations, operational experience and the human factors literature. In developing guidelines, we recognize that existing regulatory and guidance material will, at times, provide adequate coverage of an area. In other cases suitable guidelines may be found in existing military or industry human factors standards. In cases where appropriate existing standards cannot be identified, original guidelines will be proposed.

Guidelines↗

Inverse Modeling of Texas NOx Emissions Using Space-Based and Ground-Based NO2 Observations

Inverse modeling of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions using satellite-based NO2 observations has become more prevalent in recent years, but has rarely been applied to regulatory modeling at regional scales. In this study, OMI satellite observations of NO2 column densities are used to conduct inverse modeling of NOx emission inventories for two Texas State Implementation Plan (SIP) modeling episodes. Addition of lightning, aircraft, and soil NOx emissions to the regulatory inventory narrowed but did not close the gap between modeled and satellite observed NO2 over rural regions. Satellitebased top-down emission inventories are created with the regional Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx) using two techniques: the direct scaling method and discrete Kalman filter (DKF) with Decoupled Direct Method (DDM) sensitivity analysis. The simulations with satellite-inverted inventories are compared to the modeling results using the a priori inventory as well as an inventory created by a ground-level NO2 based DKF inversion. The DKF inversions yield conflicting results: the satellite based inversion scales up the a priori NOx emissions in most regions by factors of 1.02 to 1.84, leading to 3-55% increase in modeled NO2 column densities and 1-7 ppb increase in ground 8 h ozone concentrations, while the ground-based inversion indicates the a priori NOx emissions should be scaled by factors of 0.34 to 0.57 in each region. However, none of the inversions improve the model performance in simulating aircraft-observed NO2 or ground-level ozone (O3) concentrations.

Nitrogen dioxide↗

Explicate '78: Uncovering the Implicit Assurance Case in DO-178C

For about two decades, compliance with Software Considerations in Airborne Systems and Equipment Certification (DO-178B/ED-12B) has been the primary means for receiving regulatory approval for using software on commercial airplanes. A new edition of the standard, DO-178C/ED-12C, was published in December 2011, and recognized by regulatory bodies in 2013. The purpose remains unchanged: to provide guidance 'for the production of software for airborne systems and equipment that performs its intended function with a level of confidence in safety that complies with airworthiness requirements.' The text of the guidance does not directly explain how its collection of objectives contributes to achieving this purpose; thus, the assurance case for the document is implicit. This paper presents an explicit assurance case developed as part of research jointly sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Holloway, C. Michael↗

Parameter Impact on Sharing Studies Between UAS CNPC Satellite Transmitters and Terrestrial Systems

In order to provide a control and non-payload communication (CNPC) link for civil-use unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) when operating in beyond-line-of-sight (BLOS) conditions, satellite communication links are generally required. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has determined that the CNPC link must operate over protected aviation safety spectrum allocations. Although a suitable allocation exists in the 5030-5091 MHz band, no satellites provide operations in this band and none are currently planned. In order to avoid a very lengthy delay in the deployment of UAS in BLOS conditions, it has been proposed to use existing satellites operating in the Fixed Satellite Service (FSS), of which many operate in several spectrum bands. Regulatory actions by the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) are needed to enable such a use on an international basis, and indeed Agenda Item (AI) 1.5 for the 2015 World Radiocommunication Conference (WRC) was established to decide on the enactment of possible regulatory provisions. As part of the preparation for AI 1.5, studies on the sharing FSS bands between existing services and CNPC for UAS are being contributed by NASA and others. These studies evaluate the potential impact of satellite CNPC transmitters operating from UAS on other in-band services, and on the potential impact of other in-band services on satellite CNPC receivers operating on UAS platforms. Such studies are made more complex by the inclusion of what are essentially moving FSS earth stations, compared to typical sharing studies between fixed elements. Hence, the process of determining the appropriate technical parameters for the studies meets with difficulty. In order to enable a sharing study to be completed in a less-than-infinite amount of time, the number of parameters exercised must be greatly limited. Therefore, understanding the impact of various parameter choices is accomplished through selectivity analyses. In the case of sharing studies for AI 1.5, identification of worst-case parameters allows the studies to be focused on worst-case scenarios with assurance that other parameter combinations will yield comparatively better results and therefore do not need to be fully analyzed. In this paper, the results of such sensitivity analyses are presented for the case of sharing between UAS CNPC satellite transmitters and terrestrial receivers using the Fixed Service (FS) operating in the same bands, and the implications of these analyses on sharing study results.

air traffic control↗

SAFEGUARD: An Assured Safety Net Technology for UAS

As demands increase to use unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) for a broad spectrum of commercial applications, regulatory authorities are examining how to safely integrate them without loss of safety or major disruption to existing airspace operations. This work addresses the development of the Safeguard system as an assured safety net technology for UAS. The Safeguard system monitors and enforces conformance to a set of rules defined prior to flight (e.g., geospatial stay-out or stay-in regions, speed limits, altitude limits). Safeguard operates independently of the UAS autopilot and is strategically designed in a way that can be realized by a small set of verifiable functions to simplify compliance with regulatory standards for commercial aircraft. A framework is described that decouples the system from any other devices on the UAS as well as introduces complementary positioning source(s) for applications that require integrity and availability beyond what the Global Positioning System (GPS) can provide. Additionally, the high level logic embedded within the software is presented, as well as the steps being taken toward verification and validation (V&V) of proper functionality. Next, an initial prototype implementation of the described system is disclosed. Lastly, future work including development, testing, and system V&V is summarized.

Dill, Evan T.↗

Second Annual Transformative Vertical Flight Concepts Workshop: Enabling New Flight Concepts Through Novel Propulsion and Energy Architectures

On August 3rd and 4th, 2015, a workshop was held at the NASA Ames Research Center, located at the Moffett Federal Airfield in California to explore the aviation communities interest in Transformative Vertical Flight (TVF) Concepts. The Workshop was sponsored by the AHS International (AHS), the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and hosted by the NASA Aeronautics Research Institute (NARI). This second annual workshop built on the success and enthusiasm generated by the first TVF Workshop held in Washington, DC in August of 2014. The previous Workshop identified the existence of a multi-disciplinary community interested in this topic and established a consensus among the participants that opportunities to establish further collaborations in this area are warranted. The desire to conduct a series of annual workshops augmented by online virtual technical seminars to strengthen the TVF community and continue planning for advocacy and collaboration was a direct outcome of the first Workshop. The second Workshop organizers focused on four desired action-oriented outcomes. The first was to establish and document common stakeholder needs and areas of potential collaborations. This includes advocacy strategies to encourage the future success of unconventional vertiport capable flight concept solutions that are enabled by emerging technologies. The second was to assemble a community that can collaborate on new conceptual design and analysis tools to permit novel configuration paths with far greater multi-disciplinary coupling (i.e., aero-propulsive-control) to be investigated. The third was to establish a community to develop and deploy regulatory guidelines. This community would have the potential to initiate formation of an American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) F44 Committee Subgroup for the development of consensus-based certification standards for General Aviation scale vertiport capable flight systems. These standards need to accommodate novel fixed wing concepts that do not fit within the existing Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) rotorcraft certification framework (Code of Federal Regulations, Title 14, Chapter I, Subchapter C, Part 27). The fourth desired outcome was to launch an information campaign to ensure key U.S. Government agencies understand the potential benefits and industry interest in establishing new vertiport capable flight markets. This record of the Workshop proceedings documents Workshop activities and products including summaries of the video recorded technical presentations, overviews of three breakout sessions (Missions Operational Concepts, Prioritized Technical Challenges, Regulatory Roadmap), and a preliminary draft roadmap framework for TVF.

V/STOL↗

Modeling Microgravity Induced Fluid Redistribution Autoregulatory and Hydrostatic Enhancements

Space flight induces a marked cephalad (headward) redistribution of blood and interstitial fluid potentially resulting in a loss of venous tone and reduction in heart muscle efficiency upon introduction into the microgravity environment. Using various types of computational models, we are investigating how this fluid redistribution may induce intracranial pressure changes, relevant to reported reductions in astronaut visual acuity, part of the Visual Impairment and Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) syndrome. Methods: We utilize a lumped parameter cardiovascular system (CVS) model, augmented by compartments comprising the cerebral spinal fluid (CSF) space, as the primary tool to describe how microgravity, and the associated lack of hydrostatic gradient, impacts fluid redistribution. Models of ocular fluid pressures and biomechanics then accept the output of the above model as boundary condition input to allow more detailed, local analysis (see IWS Abstract by Ethier et al.). Recently, we enhanced the capabilities our previously reported CVS model through the implementation of robust autoregulatory mechanisms and a more fundamental approach to the implementation of hydrostatic mechanisms. Modifying the approach of Blanco et al., we implemented auto-regulation in a quasi-static manner, as an averaged effect across the span of one heartbeat. This approach reduced the higher frequency perturbations from the regulatory mechanism and was intended to allow longer simulation times (days) than models that implement within-beat regulatory mechanisms (minutes). A more fundamental approach to hydrostatics was implemented by a quasi-1D approach, in which compartment descriptions include compartment length, orientation and relative position, allowed for modeling of body orientation, relative body positioning and, in the future, alternative gravity environments. At this time the inclusion of hydrostatic mechanisms supplies additional capabilities to train and validate the CVS model with terrestrial data. Results and Conclusions: With the implementation of auto-regulation and hydrostatic modeling capabilities, the model performs as expected in the maintaining the CA (Central Artery) compartment pressure when simulating orientations ranging from supine to standing. The model appears to generally overpredict heart rate and thus cardiac output, possibly indicating sensitivity to the nominal heart rate, which is used as an initial set point of the regulation mechanisms. Despite this sensitivity, the model performs consistently for many hours of simulation time, indicating the success of our quasi-static implementation approach.

biomechanics↗

Evaluating Process Effectiveness to Reduce Risk

It is well documented that government agencies do not have the same incentive as the private sector to focus on process effectiveness and continual improvement of those processes. It is also well documented whenever government agencies fail to deliver efficient, effective, consistent, and fair services to the citizens. In spite of the various "reinventing government" and "effectiveness initiatives" of the past decades, and in spite of the efforts on the part of many agencies to improve, government in general still lags behind industry in creating a culture of effective processes and systems. While the tragic events that unfolded recently in Flint, Michigan, teach us that running government "like a business" does not always take the needs of the citizenry into account, there are many lessons and techniques from the private sector that government agencies can use to improve. The incentive to improve, while mandated by various administrations1, needs to come from within the workforce, in order to effectively take root. The best, most effective incentive is to reduce, control or eliminate risk. Government agencies face some of the same risks as the private sector, while some are unique. While ISO 310002 has been around since 2009, risk has taken on increased visibility within the private sector with the advent of the emphasis on risk-based thinking in ISO 9001:20153. The relationship between risk-based thinking and effective processes is simple and direct. Those processes that are well thought out and standardized (i.e. Plan-Do-Check-Act), will have taken into account the applicable policy, statutory, regulatory, safety, quality and technical parameters, which may not occur to someone performing the process with minimal experience or training; and thus protect the employees, the public and the agency from statutory and regulatory violations; delay in providing services; non-delivery of services; harm to public or employee safety and health; cost overruns; breaches in security; loss of confidence in government; failure of publicly funded projects; damage to the environment; ethics violations, and the list goes on; with local, national and even international consequences. The Plan-Do-Check-Act process, also known as the "process approach" can be used at any time to establish and standardize a process, and it can also be used to check periodically for "process creep" (i.e., informal, unauthorized changes that have occurred over time), any necessary updates and improvements. While ISO 9001 compliance is not mandated for all government agencies, if interpreted correctly, it can be useful in establishing a framework and implementing effective management systems and processes.4 Another method that can be used to evaluate effectiveness is the scorecard definitions in Mallory's Process Management Standard5 as a basis for evaluating work on the process level on effective, and continuously improved and improving processes. With processes on the lower end of the scale, agencies are vulnerable to a great many risks, with employees and managers making up many of the rules as they go, leading to the above listed negative results. Without clear guidance for nominal operations, off-nominal situations can, and do, increase the likelihood of chaos. In an increasingly technical environment, with inter-agency communication and collaboration becoming the norm, agencies need to come to grips with the fact that processes can become rapidly outdated, and that the technical community should take on an increased role in the maturation of the agency's processes. Industry has long known that effective processes are also efficient, and process improvement methods such as Kaizen, Lean, Six Sigma, 5S, and mistake proofing lead to increased productivity, improved quality, and decreased cost. Again, government agencies have different concerns, but inefficiencies and mistakes can have dire and wide reaching consequences for the public that they serve. While no one goes to work planning to cause harm, it is up to agencies to establish upper level systems, which make establishment and compliance with processes possible. Again, Mallory provides us with a Systems Management Standard6, similar to the Process Management Standard, with a scale of 0-5 for systems effectiveness and maturity. Deming determined that "eighty-five percent of the reasons for failure are deficiencies in the systems and process rather than the employee. The role of management is to change the process rather than badgering individual employees to do better." 7 It is not just the working level employees who need effective processes, but the mid-and upper level managers as well. A disciplined management culture sets the tone for the employees, aids both routine and off-nominal decision-making, and incorporates risk -based thinking into the systems and processes as a matter of normal activity. Figure 1, illustrates the relationship between ineffective and effective processes and risk, through the use of the "stoplight" colors that are commonly used to show serious situations (red), situations which may be improving or deteriorating depending on trends (yellow), and situations that are under control and continuously improved (green).

Shepherd, Christena C.↗

Model-Driven Development of Safety Architectures

We describe the use of model-driven development for safety assurance of a pioneering NASA flight operation involving a fleet of small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS) flying beyond visual line of sight. The central idea is to develop a safety architecture that provides the basis for risk assessment and visualization within a safety case, the formal justification of acceptable safety required by the aviation regulatory authority. A safety architecture is composed from a collection of bow tie diagrams (BTDs), a practical approach to manage safety risk by linking the identified hazards to the appropriate mitigation measures. The safety justification for a given unmanned aircraft system (UAS) operation can have many related BTDs. In practice, however, each BTD is independently developed, which poses challenges with respect to incremental development, maintaining consistency across different safety artifacts when changes occur, and in extracting and presenting stakeholder specific information relevant for decision making. We show how a safety architecture reconciles the various BTDs of a system, and, collectively, provide an overarching picture of system safety, by considering them as views of a unified model. We also show how it enables model-driven development of BTDs, replete with validations, transformations, and a range of views. Our approach, which we have implemented in our toolset, AdvoCATE, is illustrated with a running example drawn from a real UAS safety case. The models and some of the innovations described here were instrumental in successfully obtaining regulatory flight approval.

Safety case↗

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) Market Study

The Booz Allen Team explored market size and potential barriers to Urban Air Mobility (UAM) by focusing on three potential markets – Airport Shuttle, Air Taxi, and Air Ambulance. We found that the Airport Shuttle and Air Taxi markets are viable, with a significant total available market value in the U.S. of $500 billion, for a fully unconstrained scenario. In this unconstrained best-case scenario, passengers would have the ability to access and fly a UAM at any time, from any location to any destination, without being hindered by constraints such as weather, infrastructure, or traffic volume. Significant legal and regulatory, weather, certification, public perception, and infrastructure constraints exist, which reduce the market potential for these applications to only about 0.5% of the total available market, or $2.5 billion, in the near term. However, we determined that these constraints can be addressed through ongoing intra-governmental partnerships, government and industry collaboration, strong industry commitment, and existing legal and regulatory enablers. We found that the Air Ambulance market is not a viable market if served by electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicles due to technology constraints but may potentially be viable if a hybrid VTOL aircraft are utilized. The barriers and challenges we characterized in this study can be stratified according to their applicability or potential mitigation through technology as well as market maturity (Figure 1). In the near term, high cost of service will be a key economic challenge. We found potential for significant reduction in service cost through increased vehicle and component efficiency, and automation in a more mature market scenario. Weather conditions also pose a challenge to the UAM market, though there is potential for mitigation of some of these impacts through technology such as sensors enabling operations in low visibility. However, even in a mature market with advanced technology, disruptions are still likely to occur due to weather events such as thunderstorms and strong winds. High density operations will likely stress the current Air Traffic Management (ATM) system in the near term, but technology and new initiatives such as the Air Traffic Management -eXploration project (ATM-X) will enable safe and efficient integration of UAM into the National Airspace System (NAS). Current battery technology creates a barrier in the near term, especially for the Air Ambulance market, as battery weight and extensive recharging times would be needed for these operations. Advancements in battery technology, as well as use of hybrid VTOLs, could significantly reduce this barrier in the longer term. As UAM emerges as a viable mode of transportation in the near term, adverse energy and environmental impacts, particularly noise, may impact community acceptance and potentially persist as the market matures into larger-scale operations. For non-technology related challenges, we found that infrastructure constraints will create a significant barrier to UAM in the near term but could be addressed in the longer term through development and expansion of vertiports. Competition from existing modes of transportation such as ride-sharing (e.g., Lyft, Uber) and ground taxi’s pose a key barrier to UAM in the short term, which will likely evolve into competition from other emerging technologies such as autonomous cars and electric trains in the longer term. Weather events will influence other components of the operation such as passenger comfort (e.g., extreme temperatures, turbulence) and infrastructure (e.g., winter weather causing cracks and degradation in vertiports). There is also potential for these impacts to be heightened in the longer term from the increased frequency of adverse weather such as thunderstorms due to changing climatic conditions. We also found that the public has strong concerns about safety as a passenger in a piloted UAM, including “lasing” of pilots, unruly passengers, and sabotage. They would prefer that all passengers pass through a security screening process before boarding a vehicle. They would also prefer to use UAM for longer regional trips, such as flying from Washington, DC to Baltimore, MD or San Diego, CA to Los Angeles, CA. A longer term automated UAM vehicle market will face challenges due to public apprehension about automation and unmanned operations, and a preference to fly with passengers they know in an autonomous (unmanned) operational scenario.

Rohit Goyal↗