Introduction and Overview of Radiological Search Operations 7-29-22
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Abstract Machine learning (ML) models often fail with data that deviates from their training distribution. This is a significant concern for ML-enabled devices as data drift may lead to unexpected performance. This work introduces a new framework for out of distribution (OOD) detection and data drift monitoring that combines ML and geometric methods with statistical process control (SPC). We investigated different design choices, including methods for extracting feature representations and drift quantification for OOD detection in individual images and as an approach for input data monitoring. We evaluated the framework for both identifying OOD images and demonstrating the ability to detect shifts in data streams over time. We demonstrated a proof-of-concept via the following tasks: 1) differentiating axial vs. non-axial CT images, 2) differentiating CXR vs. other radiographic imaging modalities, and 3) differentiating adult CXR vs. pediatric CXR. For the identification of individual OOD images, our framework achieved high sensitivity in detecting OOD inputs: 0.980 in CT, 0.984 in CXR, and 0.854 in pediatric CXR. Our framework is also adept at monitoring data streams and identifying the time a drift occurred. In our simulations tracking drift over time, it effectively detected a shift from CXR to non-CXR instantly, a transition from axial to non-axial CT within few days, and a drift from adult to pediatric CXRs within a day—all while maintaining a low false positive rate. Through additional experiments, we demonstrate the framework is modality-agnostic and independent from the underlying model structure, making it highly customizable for specific applications and broadly applicable across different imaging modalities and deployed ML models.
Particulate isotopic analysis in nuclear forensics has developed rapidly during the past two decades due to technical advances in determining the isotopic composition of individual particles. This paper introduces basic statistical concepts that can be applied by analysts to understand the importance of statistical adequacy when interpretating particle data. While these basic statistical methods provide a useful point-of-entry to particle data analysis, more sophisticated statistical and modeling approaches are needed to extract maximal information from such datasets in the future.
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Unlike short-term laboratory experiments, studies at sites historically contaminated with radionuclides can provide insight into contaminant migration behavior at environmentally-relevant decadal timescales. One such site is Pond B, a seasonally stratified reservoir within Savannah River Site (SC, USA) has low levels (μBq L –1 ) of plutonium in the water column. Here, we evaluate the origin of plutonium using high-precision isotope measurements, investigate the impact of water column geochemistry on plutonium cycling during different stratification periods, and re-evaluate long-term mass balance of plutonium in the pond. New isotopic data confirm that reactor-derived plutonium overwhelms input from Northern Hemisphere fallout at this site. Two suggested mechanisms for observed plutonium cycling in the water column include: (1) reductive dissolution of sediment-derived Fe(III)-(oxyhydr)oxides during seasonal stratification and (2) plutonium stabilization complexed strongly to Fe(III)-particulate organic matter (POM) complexes. While plutonium may be mobilized to a limited extent by stratification and reductive dissolution, peak plutonium concentrations are in shallow waters and associated with Fe(III)-POM at the inception of stratification. This suggests that plutonium release from sediments during stratification is not the dominant mechanism driving plutonium cycling in the pond. Importantly, our analysis suggests that the majority is retained in shallow sediments and may become increasingly recalcitrant.
Plutonium (Pu) cycling and mobility in the environment can be impacted by the iron cycle and microbial community dynamics. We investigated the spatial and temporal changes of the microbiome in an iron (Fe)-rich, plutonium-contaminated, monomictic reservoir (Pond B, Savannah River Site, South Carolina, USA). The microbial community composition varied with depth during seasonal thermal stratification and was strongly correlated with redox. During stratification, Fe(II) oxidizers (e.g., Ferrovum, Rhodoferax, Chlorobium) were most abundant in the hypoxic/anoxic zones, while Fe(III) reducers (e.g., Geothrix, Geobacter) dominated the deep, anoxic zone. Sulfate reducers and methanogens were present in the anoxic layer, likely contributing to iron and plutonium cycling. Multinomial regression of predicted functions/pathways identified metabolisms highly associated with stratification (within the top 5%), including iron reduction, methanogenesis, C1 compound utilization, fermentation, and aromatic compound degradation. Two sediment cores collected at the Inlet and Outlet of the pond were dominated by putative fermenters and organic matter (OM) degraders. Overall, microbiome analyses revealed the potential for three microbial impacts on the plutonium and iron biogeochemical cycles: (1) plutonium bioaccumulation throughout the water column, (2) Pu–Fe-OM-aggregate formation by Fe(II) oxidizers under microaerophilic/aerobic conditions, and (3) Pu–Fe-OM-aggregate or sediment reductive dissolution and organic matter degradation in the deep, anoxic waters.
Enewetak Atoll underwent 43 historical nuclear tests from 1948 to 1958, including the first hydrogen bomb test, resulting in a substantial nuclear material fallout contaminating the Atoll and the lagoon waters. The radionuclide fallout material deposited in lagoon sediments and land soil will remain for decades to come. With intensifying climate and extreme weather events, the possibility of redistribution of deposited radionuclide material has become a great concern. This study uses a numerical modeling approach to estimate the potential elevated radionuclide concentrations that can be distributed during storm events under current and future climates. We simulated three historical storm scenarios that are most likely to impact Atoll’s environment and remobilize the radionuclide-bound sediments. WRF-ARW was used to reconstruct these storm scenarios under current year (2015) and future year (2090) climates. Storm-induced ocean hydrodynamics conditions were generated using FVCOM. FVCOM-ICM was externally coupled to simulate the fate and transport of radionuclides. Given that the 239 Pu is the largest inventory of the lagoon and Atoll islands, the model results show the highest average 239 Pu concentration that an island may be exposed to is 3.25E-4 Bq/m 3 (becquerel per cubic meters), which is an increase of 84 times the average baseline/existing 239 Pu concentration without the storm conditions. The overall increase in 239 Pu average over all the islands of Atoll is about 20 folds relative to the baseline concentration. Despite the high relative increase ratios, the significantly low activity concentrations may not pose an immediate exposure risk. However, due to the limitations of the study and uncertainties/biases in the historical data used, further research supported by field surveys to better characterize the current contamination level may be needed to make more accurate predictions.
A particle filter algorithm is presented to estimate the position, strength, and cardinality of an unknown number of radioactive point sources in an obstacle-rich environment using count measurements. The algorithm addresses gaps in the prior literature by incorporating two novel elements. The first is a precomputation step in which local terrain and obstacle data is processed to compute attenuation kernels throughout the search area. This enables rapid estimation performance in obstacle-rich environments as measurements are gathered. The second novel feature is a dynamic particle allocation technique in which the number of particles is adjusted in real time to meet convergence goals. This feature allows the algorithm to scale more efficiently to scenarios with a larger number of sources. Furthermore, a series of computational experiments using simulated data demonstrates the algorithm’s performance in a cluttered environment with up to eight sources.
In this second part of a multipaper series, we present results from outdoor aerial measurements of surrogate distributed gamma-ray sources. Here we detail the design, manufacture, and testing of 300 individual ~7 mCi Cu-64 sealed sources at the Washington State University (WSU) research reactor and their deployment in various source patterns (each comprising up to 100 point sources) during the aerial measurement campaign. We show the results of two such measurements, in which approximate source shapes and qualitative source intensities can be seen from the count rate versus position plots, even without performing reconstructions. We also detail our efforts in ground-truthing the deployed sources and comparing measured gamma-ray data to model predictions. In particular, we compare measured versus expected count data using the Poisson deviance formalism of Part I to evaluate whether the fielded surrogate point-source arrays “look like” their truly continuous distributed source analogs. More generally, we find that the point-source array technique provides high source placement accuracy, relative ease of quantifying the true source configuration, scalability to source dimensions of ≲100 m, ease of reconfiguration and removal, and relatively low dose to personnel. Finally, we consider potential improvements and generalizations of the point-source array technique for future measurement campaigns.
This paper presents a parallel log-domain particle filtering algorithm combined with gamma spectrum unfolding to perform localization, identification, and evaluation of multiple point sources of various isotopes in an environment with attenuating obstacles. The method uses sets of precomputed attenuation kernels that map the attenuation characteristics of the environment. These kernels are specific to the energy level of a photopeak of interest. The spectral measurements are deconvolved into count measurements of each photopeak. These count measurements are fed into a set of parallel particle filters using attenuation kernels computed for that photopeak’s energy level. The individual regularized particle filters perform all likelihood calculations in the logarithmic domain to mitigate the effects of particle degeneracy. The output of each particle filter is combined to estimate which isotopes are present as well as their positions and strengths. The performance of the algorithm is characterized in a lab-scale environment using a mobile robot equipped with a gamma ray spectrometer in the presence of up to three different radioactive isotopes simultaneously. The sources were localized to within 10 cm, and their strengths were estimated within 10% of their true values. Furthermore, the isotopes were all correctly identified, and no spurious sources were reported.
Spectroscopic anomaly detection and isotope identification algorithms are integral components in nuclear nonproliferation applications such as search operations. The task is especially challenging in the case of mobile detector systems because the observed gamma-ray background changes more than for a static detector system, and a pretrained background model can easily find itself out of domain. The result is that algorithms may exceed their intended false alarm rate or sacrifice detection sensitivity to maintain the desired false alarm rate. Non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) is a powerful tool for spectral anomaly detection and identification, but, like many similar algorithms that rely on data-driven background models, in its conventional implementation, it is unable to update in real time to account for environmental changes that affect the background spectroscopic signature. Here, we have developed a novel NMF-based algorithm that periodically updates its background model to accommodate changing environmental conditions. The adaptive NMF algorithm involves fewer assumptions about its environment, making it more generalizable than existing NMF-based methods while maintaining or exceeding detection performance on simulated and real-world datasets.
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The Portsmouth/Paducah Project Office (PPPO) proposes to use the American National Standard Institute (ANSI)/Health Physics Society (HPS) N13.12 (ANSI 2013) volumetric screening levels as Authorized Limits (ALs) for the release of cryofluorane R-114 (Freon) at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PGDP) in Paducah, Kentucky. A review of the proposed ALs document indicated that potential exposure scenarios from the release of Freon are adequately discussed therein. However, questions arose regarding the assumptions made for the ANSI N13.12 clearance values, and whether or not all pathway doses were adequately considered in the Authorized Limits Request. For example, PPPO used the inverse square rule to estimate dose to the truck driver. A more appropriate evaluation would have considered the material as a cylindrical source for this pathway. In addition, the inverse square rule was inadequately applied to the inhalation and ingestion pathways. Furthermore, while the ANSI N13.12 volumetric clearance values are used in the ALs, questions arose concerning whether the values are appropriate for materials of greater than 1 metric ton, and whether or not the ANSI N13.12 standard could be used for liquids that are sent to an incinerator. For these reasons, dose modeling was conducted to demonstrate that using ANSI/HPS N13.12 screening levels as ALs for release of PGDP Freon meets the dose criteria set in U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Order 458.1. This report provides a bounding dose analysis using scenarios described in PPPO document. Realistic parameters, such as the incinerator characteristics data, are used when available.
The studies described below have been performed for NuMI Accelerator Improvement Project (NuMI AIP). This work has been done to extend previous studies and address new issues encountered as the project evolves. The calculations have been performed for both normal operation and an accident scenario.
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