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Heat and Mass Transport from Thermally Degrading Thin Cellulosic Materials in a Microgravity Environment

Attention is given to a theoretical model describing the behavior of a thermally thin cellulosic sheet heated by external thermal radiation in a quiescent microgravity environment. This model describes thermal and oxidative degradation of the sheet and the heat and mass transfer of evolved degradation products from the heated cellulosic surface into the gas phase. Two calculations are carried out: heating without thermal degradation, and heating with thermal degradation of the sheet with endothermic pyrolysis, exothermic thermal oxidative degradation, and highly exothermic char oxidation. It is shown that pyrolysis is the main degradation reaction. Self-sustained smoldering is controlled and severely limited by the reduced oxygen supply.

Kushida, G.↗

Development of a Comprehensive Physics-Based Model for Study of NASA Gateway Lunar Dust Contamination

NASA is committed to landing the first woman and first person of color on the Moon by 2025 to begin a sustaining presence. A major component of this mission is NASA’s orbiting lunar outpost, Gateway, that will be subjected to the harsh environment of space during its 7-day orbit around the Moon. One aspect of this environment that is not well quantified is microscopic lunar regolith particles, or simply, lunar dust. As Apollo 17 Mission Commander Eugene Cernan said, “I think dust is probably one of our greatest inhibitors to a nominal operation on the moon. I think we can overcome other physiological or physical or mechanical problems except dust” [1]. These dust particles, most of which are smaller than the width of two human hairs and of highly irregular shape, are composed mainly of dielectric materials. Such characteristics can allow the dust particles to collect electric charge from the surrounding environment, resulting in electrostatic interactions between the dust, electromagnetic fields, and electrically charged surfaces [2-3]. Due to the nature of these fields, dust can collect on and contaminate charged surfaces. Lunar dust introduced into the Gateway environment by a lunar ascent vehicle element returning from the surface of the Moon presents risks to Gateway hardware such as radiators, solar arrays, antennae, and docking mechanisms. To quantify this risk and inform NASA, International Partner, and Commercial Provider stakeholders, Booz Allen, in partnership with NASA, is developing a toolset to model the interaction of charged lunar dust particles with the cis-lunar and deep-space environments. This includes a comprehensive physics model of the space plasma and solar radiation environment and electromagnetic interaction of spacecraft and lunar dust. Spacecraft charging and plasma environment are solved using the open-source code from The French Aerospace Lab (ONERA) and the European Space Agency (ESA), known as Spacecraft Plasma Interaction Software (SPIS) [4]. The physics of particle charging and motion is handled by a time-dependent implementation of Orbital-Motion-Limited (OML) theory which accounts for plasma flows and positive potential grains [5-7], using Siemens STAR-CCM+ as the framework. Model validation includes lab experiments by NASA experts and academia, as well as future on-orbit dust detecting payloads on the exterior of Gateway and Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) missions to the lunar surface [7-9]. The results and analyses will inform Gateway Program system owners at risk for lunar dust contamination.

Complex Plasma↗

LDEF satellite radiation study

Some early results are summarized from a program under way to utilize LDEF satellite data for evaluating and improving current models of the space radiation environment in low earth orbit. Reported here are predictions and comparisons with some of the LDEF dose and induced radioactivity data, which are used to check the accuracy of current models describing the magnitude and directionality of the trapped proton environment. Preliminary findings are that the environment models underestimate both dose and activation from trapped protons by a factor of about two, and the observed anisotropy is higher than predicted.

Armstrong, T. W.↗

Comparison of model predictions with LDEF satellite radiation measurements

Some early results are summarized from a program under way to utilize Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) satellite data for evaluating and improving current models of the space radiation environment in low Earth orbit. Reported here are predictions and comparisons with some of the LDEF dose and induced radioactivity data, which are used to check the accuracy of current models describing the magnitude and directionality of the trapped proton environment. Preliminary findings are that the environment models underestimate both dose and activation from trapped protons by a factor of about two, and the observed anisotropy is higher than predicted.

Armstrong, T. W.↗

Development of a Space Radiation Monte-Carlo Computer Simulation Based on the FLUKE and Root Codes

The radiation environment in space is a complex problem to model. Trying to extrapolate the projections of that environment into all areas of the internal spacecraft geometry is even more daunting. With the support of our CERN colleagues, our research group in Houston is embarking on a project to develop a radiation transport tool that is tailored to the problem of taking the external radiation flux incident on any particular spacecraft and simulating the evolution of that flux through a geometrically accurate model of the spacecraft material. The output will be a prediction of the detailed nature of the resulting internal radiation environment within the spacecraft as well as its secondary albedo. Beyond doing the physics transport of the incident flux, the software tool we are developing will provide a self-contained stand-alone object-oriented analysis and visualization infrastructure. It will also include a graphical user interface and a set of input tools to facilitate the simulation of space missions in terms of nominal radiation models and mission trajectory profiles. The goal of this project is to produce a code that is considerably more accurate and user-friendly than existing Monte-Carlo-based tools for the evaluation of the space radiation environment. Furthermore, the code will be an essential complement to the currently existing analytic codes in the BRYNTRN/HZETRN family for the evaluation of radiation shielding. The code will be directly applicable to the simulation of environments in low earth orbit, on the lunar surface, on planetary surfaces (including the Earth) and in the interplanetary medium such as on a transit to Mars (and even in the interstellar medium). The software will include modules whose underlying physics base can continue to be enhanced and updated for physics content, as future data become available beyond the timeframe of the initial development now foreseen. This future maintenance will be available from the authors of FLUKA as part of their continuing efforts to support the users of the FLUKA code within the particle physics community. In keeping with the spirit of developing an evolving physics code, we are planning as part of this project, to participate in the efforts to validate the core FLUKA physics in ground-based accelerator test runs. The emphasis of these test runs will be the physics of greatest interest in the simulation of the space radiation environment. Such a tool will be of great value to planners, designers and operators of future space missions, as well as for the design of the vehicles and habitats to be used on such missions. It will also be of aid to future experiments of various kinds that may be affected at some level by the ambient radiation environment, or in the analysis of hybrid experiment designs that have been discussed for space-based astronomy and astrophysics. The tool will be of value to the Life Sciences personnel involved in the prediction and measurement of radiation doses experienced by the crewmembers on such missions. In addition, the tool will be of great use to the planners of experiments to measure and evaluate the space radiation environment itself. It can likewise be useful in the analysis of safe havens, hazard migration plans, and NASA's call for new research in composites and to NASA engineers modeling the radiation exposure of electronic circuits. This code will provide an important complimentary check on the predictions of analytic codes such as BRYNTRN/HZETRN that are presently used for many similar applications, and which have shortcomings that are more easily overcome with Monte Carlo type simulations. Finally, it is acknowledged that there are similar efforts based around the use of the GEANT4 Monte-Carlo transport code currently under development at CERN. It is our intention to make our software modular and sufficiently flexible to allow the parallel use of either FLUKA or GEANT4 as the physics transport engine.

Pinsky, L. S.↗

The Empirical Low Energy Ion Flux Model for the Terrestrial Magnetosphere

This document includes a viewgraph presentation plus the full paper presented at the conference. The Living With a Star Ion Flux Model (IFM) is a radiation environment risk mitigation tool that provides magnetospheric ion flux values for varying geomagnetic disturbance levels in the geospace environment. IFM incorporates flux observations from the Polar and Geotail spacecraft in a single statistical flux model. IFM is an engineering environment model which predicts the proton flux not only in the magnetosphere, but also in the solar wind and magnetosheath phenomenological regions. This paper describes the ion flux databases that allows for IFM output to be correlated with the geomagnetic activity level, as represented by the Kp index.

Blackwell, William C.↗

Geometry and mass model of ionizing radiation experiments on the LDEF satellite

Extensive measurements related to ionizing radiation environments and effects were made on the LDEF satellite during its mission lifetime of almost 6 years. These data, together with the opportunity they provide for evaluating predictive models and analysis methods, should allow more accurate assessments of the space radiation environment and related effects for future missions in low Earth orbit. The LDEF radiation dosimetry data is influenced to varying degrees by material shielding effects due to the dosimeter itself, nearby components and experiments, and the spacecraft structure. A geometry and mass model is generated of LDEF, incorporating sufficient detail that it can be applied in determining the influence of material shielding on ionizing radiation measurements and predictions. This model can be used as an aid in data interpretation by unfolding shielding effects from the LDEF radiation dosimeter responses. Use of the LDEF geometry/mass model, in conjunction with predictions and comparisons with LDEF dosimetry data currently underway, will also allow more definitive evaluations of current radiation models for future mission applications.

Colborn, B. L.↗

Importance of the Natural Terrestrial Environment with Regard to Advanced Launch Vehicle Design and Development

The terrestrial environment is an important forcing function in the design and development of the launch vehicle. The scope of the terrestrial environment includes the following phenomena: Winds; Atmospheric Thermodynamic Models and Properties; Thermal Radiation; U.S. and World Surface Environment Extremes; Humidity; Precipitation, Fog, and Icing; Cloud Characteristics and Cloud Cover Models; Atmospheric Electricity; Atmospheric Constituents; Vehicle Engine Exhaust and Toxic Chemical Release; Occurrences of Tornadoes and Hurricanes; Geological Hazards, and Sea States. One must remember that the flight profile of any launch vehicle is in the terrestrial environment. Terrestrial environment definitions are usually limited to information below 90 km. Thus, a launch vehicle's operations will always be influenced to some degree by the terrestrial environment with which it interacts. As a result, the definition of the terrestrial environment and its interpretation is one of the key launch vehicle design and development inputs. This definition is a significant role, for example, in the areas of structures, control systems, trajectory shaping (performance), aerodynamic heating and take off/landing capabilities. The launch vehicle's capabilities which result from the design, in turn, determines the constraints and flight opportunities for tests and operations.

Pearson, S. D.↗

Models for Galactic Cosmic Ray and Solar Energetic Particles and their Application to Spacecraft Design

The effects of radiation environment in interplanetary space must be taken into account for spacecraft design. This is done by modeling this environment and propagating it to the electronic parts of interest within the spacecraft then calculating the effects of this radiation on these parts. This talk will present a survey of the existing models for the interplanetary radiation environment and the results of comparing them with measurements. It will also include a survey of radiation transport methods and methods for estimating the effects of this radiation on spacecraft.

Adams, James H., Jr.↗

The JPL Uranian Radiation Model (UMOD)

The objective of this study is the development of a comprehensive radiation model (UMOD) of the Uranian environment for JPL mission planning. The ultimate goal is to provide a description of the high energy electron and proton environments and the magnetic field at Uranus that can be used for engineering design. Currently no model exists at JPL. A preliminary electron radiation model employing Voyager 2 data was developed by Selesnick and Stone in 1991. The JPL Uranian Radiation Model extends that analysis, which modeled electrons between 0.7 MeV and 2.5 MeV based on the Voyager Cosmic Ray Subsystem electron telescope, down to an energy of 0.022 MeV for electrons and from 0.028 MeV to 3.5 MeV for protons. These latter energy ranges are based on measurements by the Applied Physics Laboratory Low Energy Charged Particle Detector on Voyager 2. As in previous JPL radiation models, the form of the Uranian model is based on magnetic field coordinates and requires a conversion from spacecraft coordinates to Uranian-centered magnetic "B-L" coordinates. Two magnetic field models have been developed for Uranus: 1) a simple "offset, tilted dipole" (OTD), and 2) a complex, multi-pole expansion model ("Q3"). A review of the existing data on Uranus and a search of the NASA Planetary Data System (PDS) were completed to obtain the latest, up to date descriptions of the Uranian high energy particle environment. These data were fit in terms of the Q3 B-L coordinates to extend and update the original Selesnick and Stone electron model in energy and to develop the companion proton flux model. The flux predictions of the new model were used to estimate the total ionizing dose for the Voyager 2 flyby, and a movie illustrating the complex radiation belt variations was produced to document the uses of the model for planning purposes.

Garrett, Henry↗

Overview of the Martian radiation environment experiment

Space radiation presents a hazard to astronauts, particularly those journeying outside the protective influence of the geomagnetosphere. Crews on future missions to Mars will be exposed to the harsh radiation environment of deep space during the transit between Earth and Mars. Once on Mars, they will encounter radiation that is only slightly reduced, compared to free space, by the thin Martian atmosphere. NASA is obliged to minimize, where possible, the radiation exposures received by astronauts. Thus, as a precursor to eventual human exploration, it is necessary to measure the Martian radiation environment in detail. The MARIE experiment, aboard the 2001 Mars Odyssey spacecraft, is returning the first data that bear directly on this problem. Here we provide an overview of the experiment, including introductory material on space radiation and radiation dosimetry, a description of the detector, model predictions of the radiation environment at Mars, and preliminary dose-rate data obtained at Mars. c2003 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

NASA Program Biomedical Research and Countermeasur↗

Automated ISS Flight Utilities

During my internship at NASA Johnson Space Center, I worked in the Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG), where I was tasked with a number of projects focused on the automation of tasks and activities related to the operation of the International Space Station (ISS). As I worked on a number of projects, I have written short sections below to give a description for each, followed by more general remarks on the internship experience. My first project is titled "General Exposure Representation EVADOSE", also known as "GEnEVADOSE". This project involved the design and development of a C++/ ROOT framework focused on radiation exposure for extravehicular activity (EVA) planning for the ISS. The utility helps mission managers plan EVAs by displaying information on the cumulative radiation doses that crew will receive during an EVA as a function of the egress time and duration of the activity. SRAG uses a utility called EVADOSE, employing a model of the space radiation environment in low Earth orbit to predict these doses, as while outside the ISS the astronauts will have less shielding from charged particles such as electrons and protons. However, EVADOSE output is cumbersome to work with, and prior to GEnEVADOSE, querying data and producing graphs of ISS trajectories and cumulative doses versus egress time required manual work in Microsoft Excel. GEnEVADOSE automates all this work, reading in EVADOSE output file(s) along with a plaintext file input by the user providing input parameters. GEnEVADOSE will output a text file containing all the necessary dosimetry for each proposed EVA egress time, for each specified EVADOSE file. It also plots cumulative dose versus egress time and the ISS trajectory, and displays all of this information in an auto-generated presentation made in LaTeX. New features have also been added, such as best-case scenarios (egress times corresponding to the least dose), interpolated curves for trajectories, and the ability to query any time in the EVADES output. As mentioned above, GEnEVADOSE makes extensive use of ROOT version 6, the data analysis framework developed at the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN), and the code is written to the C++11 standard (as are the other projects). My second project is the Automated Mission Reference Exposure Utility (AMREU).Unlike GEnEVADOSE, AMREU is a combination of three frameworks written in both Python and C++, also making use of ROOT (and PyROOT). Run as a combination of daily and weekly cron jobs, these macros query the SRAG database system to determine the active ISS missions, and query minute-by-minute radiation dose information from ISS-TEPC (Tissue Equivalent Proportional Counter), one of the radiation detectors onboard the ISS. Using this information, AMREU creates a corrected data set of daily radiation doses, addressing situations where TEPC may be offline or locked up by correcting doses for days with less than 95% live time (the total amount time the instrument acquires data) by averaging the past 7 days. As not all errors may be automatically detectable, AMREU also allows for manual corrections, checking an updated plaintext file each time it runs. With the corrected data, AMREU generates cumulative dose plots for each mission, and uses a Python script to generate a flight note file (.docx format) containing these plots, as well as information sections to be filled in and modified by the space weather environment officers with information specific to the week. AMREU is set up to run without requiring any user input, and it automatically archives old flight notes and information files for missions that are no longer active. My other projects involve cleaning up a large data set from the Charged Particle Directional Spectrometer (CPDS), joining together many different data sets in order to clean up information in SRAG SQL databases, and developing other automated utilities for displaying information on active solar regions, that may be used by the space weather environment officers to monitor solar activity. I consulted my mentor Dr. Ryan Rios and Dr. Kerry Lee for project requirements and added features, and ROOT developer Edmond Offermann for advice on using the ROOT library. I also received advice and feedback from Dr. Janet Barzilla of SRAG, who tested my code. Besides these inputs, I worked independently, writing all of the code by myself. The code for all these projects is documented throughout, and I have attempted to write it in a modular format. Assuming that ROOT is updated accordingly, these codes are also Y2038-compliant (and Y10K-compliant). This allows the code to be easily referenced, modified and possibly repurposed for non-ISS missions in the future, should the necessary inputs exist. These projects have taught me a lot about coding and software design - I have become a much more skilled C++ programmer and ROOT user, and I also learned to code in Python and PyROOT (and its advantages and disadvantages compared to C++/ ROOT). Furthermore, I have learned about space radiation and radiation modeling, topics that greatly interest me as I pursue a degree in physics. Working alongside experimental physicists like Dr. Rios, I have developed a greater understanding and appreciation for experimental science, something I have always leaned towards but to which I lacked significant exposure. My work in SRAG has also given me the invaluable opportunity to witness the work environment for physicists at NASA, and what a career in academia may look like at a government laboratory such as NASA Johnson Space Center. As I continue my studies and look forward to graduate school and a future career, this experience at NASA has given me a meaningful and enjoyable opportunity to put my skills to use and see what my future career path might hold.

Offermann, Jan Tuzlic↗

CREME96 and Related Error Rate Prediction Methods

Predicting the rate of occurrence of single event effects (SEEs) in space requires knowledge of the radiation environment and the response of electronic devices to that environment. Several analytical models have been developed over the past 36 years to predict SEE rates. The first error rate calculations were performed by Binder, Smith and Holman. Bradford and Pickel and Blandford, in their CRIER (Cosmic-Ray-Induced-Error-Rate) analysis code introduced the basic Rectangular ParallelePiped (RPP) method for error rate calculations. For the radiation environment at the part, both made use of the Cosmic Ray LET (Linear Energy Transfer) spectra calculated by Heinrich for various absorber Depths. A more detailed model for the space radiation environment within spacecraft was developed by Adams and co-workers. This model, together with a reformulation of the RPP method published by Pickel and Blandford, was used to create the CR ME (Cosmic Ray Effects on Micro-Electronics) code. About the same time Shapiro wrote the CRUP (Cosmic Ray Upset Program) based on the RPP method published by Bradford. It was the first code to specifically take into account charge collection from outside the depletion region due to deformation of the electric field caused by the incident cosmic ray. Other early rate prediction methods and codes include the Single Event Figure of Merit, NOVICE, the Space Radiation code and the effective flux method of Binder which is the basis of the SEFA (Scott Effective Flux Approximation) model. By the early 1990s it was becoming clear that CREME and the other early models needed Revision. This revision, CREME96, was completed and released as a WWW-based tool, one of the first of its kind. The revisions in CREME96 included improved environmental models and improved models for calculating single event effects. The need for a revision of CREME also stimulated the development of the CHIME (CRRES/SPACERAD Heavy Ion Model of the Environment) and MACREE (Modeling and Analysis of Cosmic Ray Effects in Electronics). The Single Event Figure of Merit method was also revised to use the solar minimum galactic cosmic ray spectrum and extended to circular orbits down to 200 km at any inclination. More recently a series of commercial codes was developed by TRAD (Test & Radiations) which includes the OMERE code which calculates single event effects. There are other error rate prediction methods which use Monte Carlo techniques. In this chapter the analytic methods for estimating the environment within spacecraft will be discussed.

Adams, James H., Jr.↗

Full Mission Astronaut Radiation Exposure Assessments for Long Duration Lunar Surface Missions

Risk to astronauts due to ionizing radiation exposure is a primary concern for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and will drive mission architecture requirements, mission timelines, and operational practices. Both galactic cosmic ray (GCR) and solar particle event (SPE) environments pose a risk to astronauts for missions beyond LEO. The GCR environment, which is made up of protons and heavier ions covering a broad energy spectrum, is ever present but varies in intensity with the solar cycle, while SPEs are sporadic events, consisting primarily of protons moving outward through the solar system from the sun. The GCR environment is more penetrating and is more difficult to shield than SPE environments, but lacks the intensity to induce acute effects. Large SPEs are rare, but they could result in a lethal dose, if adequate shielding is not provided. For short missions, radiation risk is dominated by the possibility of a large SPE. Longer missions also require planning for large SPEs; adequate shielding must be provided and operational constraints must allow astronauts to move quickly to shielded locations. The dominant risk for longer missions, however, is GCR exposure, which accumulates over time and can lead to late effects such as cancer. SPE exposure, even low level SPE exposure received in heavily shielded locations, will increase this risk. In addition to GCR and SPE environments, the lunar neutron albedo resulting mainly from the interaction of GCRs with regolith will also contribute to astronaut risk. Full mission exposure assessments were performed for proposed long duration lunar surface mission scenarios. In order to accomplish these assessments, radiation shielding models were developed for a proposed lunar habitat and rover. End-to-End mission exposure assessments were performed by first calculating exposure rates for locations in the habitat, rover, and during extra-vehicular activities (EVA). Subsequently, total mission exposures were evaluated for proposed timelines. A number of computational tools and mathematical models, which have been incorporated into NASA's On-Line Tool for the Assessment of Radiation In Space (OLTARIS), were used for this study. These tools include GCR and SPE environment models, human body models, and the HZETRN space radiation transport code, which is used to calculate the transport of the charged particles and neutrons through shielding materials and human tissue. Mission exposure results, assessed in terms of effective dose, are presented for proposed timelines and recommendations are made for improved astronaut shielding and safer operational practice.

Adamczyk, Anne M.↗

A simple radiation model of cometary dust for P/Halley

Algebra, parameter values, and results for a model of the radiation from the dust environment of Comet P/Halley are presented. The model includes absorption and single scattering of sunlight and IR emission, for the dust and nucleus. It employs dust particle photometric properties which are independent of wave length, particle size, and position within the coma, separately in the visible and IR regions. Values for these properties are obtained from published photometric data for several comets, and are applied to a numerical model for the dust distribution near Halley. A calculation for a spacecraft 1081 km sunward of Halley's nucleus (at 1.05 AU, postperihelion) leads to omnidirectional, integral flux values of 1235 W/sqm for direct sunlight, 0.24 W/sqm for dust IR emission, 0.095 W/sam for sunlight scattered from the dust, 0.0015 W/sqm for sunlight reflected from the nucleus, and 0.00033 W/sqm for nucleus IR emission.

Divine, N.↗

The Cosmic Radiation Symphony: Soundtrack for a Journey to Mars

Space radiation (SR) is a constant threat to astronauts who journey away from the Earth’s protective magnetosphere. Galactic cosmic rays (GCR) are atomic nuclei from remnants of supernovae and are omnipresent in outer space. These ionized particles travel close to the speed of light and when they traverse biological material,they leave behind a path of damage. Another space radiation threat is from our sun when solar particle events (SPEs), or bursts of energetic protons,occur. Exposure to space radiation can lead to cancer, cardiovascular disease,immune dysfunction, and cognitive and behavioral decrements. Yet humans cannot see, smell, taste, hear,or feel radiation, making it less tangible than other health threats and much more difficult to describe.This is an important gap in risk communication that the Space Radiation Element is working to close within NASA’s Human Research Program. Music and art are powerful means of communicating human emotions and feelings and are effective and creative ways to convey other types of information. In this work, the sonification process was used to transcribe or translate the physical nature of the SR environment on a 3-year mission to Mars into sound, a format perceptible to the human ear. A visual representation for the journey was also developed so the audience can both hear and envision the chronic presence of GCR and the acute and large bursts of energy present in SPEs. Data for this project were derived from the Radiation Assessment Detector on the NASA Curiosity Rover during its outbound cruise to Mars and on the Martian surface, as well as from models of the space radiation environment behind spacecraft shielding. Our data-driven audiovisual composition was realized using custom programmed digital signal processing and graphic design in the programming languages Pure Data and Processing. The data sonification was contextualized in time and space by calculating and visualizing the location of the spacecraft in relation to the other planets during the Mars mission. The finished work is a unique and powerful means of communicating the presence and risk of space radiation, accessible by people of all ages and scientific backgrounds

Richard Snow↗

Space Weather Nowcasting of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety

There is a growing concern for the health and safety of commercial aircrew and passengers due to their exposure to ionizing radiation with high linear energy transfer (LET), particularly at high latitudes. The International Commission of Radiobiological Protection (ICRP), the EPA, and the FAA consider the crews of commercial aircraft as radiation workers. During solar energetic particle (SEP) events, radiation exposure can exceed annual limits, and the number of serious health effects is expected to be quite high if precautions are not taken. There is a need for a capability to monitor the real-time, global background radiations levels, from galactic cosmic rays (GCR), at commercial airline altitudes and to provide analytical input for airline operations decisions for altering flight paths and altitudes for the mitigation and reduction of radiation exposure levels during a SEP event. The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) model is new initiative to provide a global, real-time radiation dosimetry package for archiving and assessing the biologically harmful radiation exposure levels at commercial airline altitudes. The NAIRAS model brings to bear the best available suite of Sun-Earth observations and models for simulating the atmospheric ionizing radiation environment. Observations are utilized from ground (neutron monitors), from the atmosphere (the METO analysis), and from space (NASA/ACE and NOAA/GOES). Atmospheric observations provide the overhead shielding information and the ground- and space-based observations provide boundary conditions on the GCR and SEP energy flux distributions for transport and dosimetry simulations. Dose rates are calculated using the parametric AIR (Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation) model and the physics-based HZETRN (High Charge and Energy Transport) code. Empirical models of the near-Earth radiation environment (GCR/SEP energy flux distributions and geomagnetic cut-off rigidity) are benchmarked against the physics-based CMIT (Coupled Magnetosphere- Ionosphere-Thermosphere) and SEP-trajectory models.

Mertens, Christopher J.↗

Mind the Gap: Exploring the Underground of the NASA Space Cancer Risk Model

The REID quantifies the lifetime risk of death from radiation-induced cancer in an exposed astronaut. The NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) 2012 mode incorporates elements from physics, biology, epidemiology, and statistics to generate the REID distribution. The current model quantifies the space radiation environment, radiation quality, and dose-rate effects to estimate a NASA-weighted dose. This weighted dose is mapped to the excess risk of radiation-induced cancer mortality from acute exposures to gamma rays and then transferred to an astronaut population. Finally, the REID is determined by integrating this risk over the individual's lifetime. The calculated upper 95% confidence limit of the REID is used to restrict an astronaut's permissible mission duration (PMD) for a proposed mission. As a statistical quantity characterized by broad, subjective uncertainties, REID estimates for space missions result in wide distributions. Currently, the upper 95% confidence level is over 350% larger than the mean REID value, which can severely limit an astronaut's PMD. The model incorporates inputs from multiple scientific disciplines in the risk estimation process. Physics and particle transport models calculate how radiation moves through space, penetrates spacecraft, and makes its way to the human beings onboard. Epidemiological studies of exposures from atomic bombings, medical treatments, and power plants are used to quantify health risks from acute and chronic low linear energy transfer (LET) ionizing radiation. Biological studies in cellular and animal models using radiation at various LETs and energies inform quality metrics for ions present in space radiation. Statistical methodologies unite these elements, controlling for mathematical and scientific uncertainty and variability. Despite current progress, these research platforms contain knowledge gaps contributing to the large uncertainties still present in the model. The NASA Space Radiation Program Element (SRPE) defines the knowledge gaps that impact our understanding of the cancer risks. These gaps are outlined in NASA's Human Research Roadmap [4], which identifies the research questions and actions recommended for reducing the uncertainty in the current NSCR model and for formulation of future models. The greatest contributors to uncertainty in the current model include radiation quality, dose rate effects, and the transfer of exposure-based risk from other populations to an astronaut population. Future formulations of the risk model may benefit from including other potential sources of uncertainty such as space dosimetry, errors in human epidemiology data, and the impact of microgravity and other spaceflight stressors. Here, we discuss the current capabilities of the NSCR-2012 model and several immediate research needs, highlighting areas expected to have an operational impact on the current model schema. The following subway-style route map outlines the NSCR-2012 model (Green Line), emphasizing the research gaps in the Human Research Roadmap for risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis (Stops on Dashed Lines). The map diagrams how these research gaps feed specific portions of the model.

Chappell, L. J.↗