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At least 163 records · Page 9

Importance of Nuclear Quantum Effects on Aqueous Electrolyte Transport under Confinement in Ti 3 C 2 MXenes

Protons display a high chemical activity and strongly affect the charge storage capability in confined interlayer spaces of two-dimensional (2D) materials. As such, an accurate representation of proton dynamics under confinement is important for understanding and predicting charge storage dynamics in these materials. While often ignored in atomistic-scale simulations, nuclear quantum effects (NQEs), e.g., tunneling, can be significant under confinement even at room temperature. Here, using the thermostatted ring polymer molecular dynamics implementation of path integral molecular dynamics (PIMD) in conjunction with the ReaxFF force field, density functional tight binding (DFTB), and NequIP neural network potential simulations, we investigate the role of NQEs on proton and water transport in bulk water and aqueous electrolytes under confinement in Ti 3 C 2 MXenes. Although overall NQEs are relatively small, especially in bulk, we find that they can alter both quantitative values and qualitative trends on both proton transport and water self-diffusion under confinement relative to classical MD predictions. Therefore, our results suggest the need for NQEs to be considered to simulate aqueous systems under confinement for both qualitative and quantitative accuracy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Space-Based Near-Infrared CO2 Measurements: Testing the Orbiting Carbon Observatory Retrieval Algorithm and Validation Concept Using SCIAMACHY Observations over Park Falls, Wisconsin

Space-based measurements of reflected sunlight in the near-infrared (NIR) region promise to yield accurate and precise observations of the global distribution of atmospheric CO2. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) is a future NASA mission, which will use this technique to measure the column-averaged dry air mole fraction of CO2 (XCO2) with the precision and accuracy needed to quantify CO2 sources and sinks on regional scales (approx.1000 x 1000 sq km and to characterize their variability on seasonal timescales. Here, we have used the OCO retrieval algorithm to retrieve XCO2 and surface pressure from space-based Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY) measurements and from coincident ground-based Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS) measurements of the O2 A band at 0.76 mm and the 1.58 mm CO2 band for Park Falls,Wisconsin. Even after accounting for a systematic error in our representation of the O2 absorption cross sections, we still obtained a positive bias between SCIAMACHY and FTS XCO2 retrievals of approx.3.5%. Additionally, the retrieved surface pressures from SCIAMACHY systematically underestimate measurements of a calibrated pressure sensor at the FTS site. These findings lead us to speculate about inadequacies in the forward model of our retrieval algorithm. By assuming a 1% intensity offset in the O2 A band region for the SCIAMACHY XCO2 retrieval, we significantly improved the spectral fit and achieved better consistency between SCIAMACHY and FTS XCO2 retrievals. We compared the seasonal cycle of XCO2 at Park Falls from SCIAMACHY and FTS retrievals with calculations of the Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry/Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (MATCH/CASA) and found a good qualitative agreement but with MATCH/CASA underestimating the measured seasonal amplitude. Furthermore, since SCIAMACHY observations are similar in viewing geometry and spectral range to those of OCO, this study represents an important test of the OCO retrieval algorithm and validation concept using NIR spectra measured from space. Finally, we argue that significant improvements in precision and accuracy could be obtained from a dedicated CO2 instrument such as OCO, which has much higher spectral and spatial resolutions than SCIAMACHY. These measurements would then provide critical data for improving our understanding of the carbon cycle and carbon sources and sinks.

carbon dioxide↗

Computed Tomography Scanning and Petrophysical Measurements of the Lively Grove #1 Well Core

The computed tomography (CT) facilities and the Multi-Sensor Core Logger (MSCL) at the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) in Morgantown, West Virginia were used to characterize core from the Lively Grove #1 Well (API 121892494700), drilled near Marissa, Washington County, Illinois. Core from the well was obtained as part of the Illinois Storage Corridor’s Carbon Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise (CarbonSAFE) project (DE FE0031892). The primary impetus of this work was to capture a detailed digital representation of the core from the Lively Grove #1 Well. The collaboration between the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) NETL and the Illinois State Geological Survey (ISGS) enables other research entities to access information about this potential carbon storage location and Cambro-Ordovician Storage Complex formations of the Illinois Basin. The resultant datasets are presented in this report and can be accessed from NETL’s Energy Data eXchange (EDX) online system. All equipment and techniques used were non-destructive, enabling future examinations and analyses to be performed on these cores. Fractures, discontinuities, and millimeter-scale features were readily detectable with the medical CT scanner-acquired images. Imaging with the NETL medical CT scanner was performed on entire cores. Qualitative analysis of the medical CT images, coupled with X-ray fluorescence (XRF), gamma density, and magnetic susceptibility measurements from the MSCL were useful in identifying zones of interest for potential future analysis. Higher-resolution industrial and micro-CT images were acquired from selected zones along the depth of the core to visualize the structure in higher detail. The ability to quickly identify key areas for more detailed study with higher resolution will save time and resources in future studies. The combination of methods used provides a multi-scale analysis of the core; with the resulting macro- and micro-descriptions relevant to many subsurface energy related examinations traditionally performed at NETL.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Visual Analytics of Multivariate Networks With Representation Learning and Composite Variable Construction

Multivariate networks are commonly found in real-world data-driven applications. Uncovering and understanding the relations of interest in multivariate networks is not a trivial task. This article presents a visual analytics workflow for studying multivariate networks to extract associations between different structural and semantic characteristics of the networks (e.g., what are the combinations of attributes largely relating to the density of a social network?). The workflow consists of a neural-network-based learning phase to classify the data based on the chosen input and output attributes, a dimensionality reduction and optimization phase to produce a simplified set of results for examination, and finally an interpreting phase conducted by the user through an interactive visualization interface. A key part of our design is a composite variable construction step that remodels nonlinear features obtained by neural networks into linear features that are intuitive to interpret. We demonstrate the capabilities of this workflow with multiple case studies on networks derived from social media usage and also evaluate the workflow with qualitative feedback from experts.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

[Real time 3D echocardiography]

Three-dimensional representation of the heart is an old concern. Usually, 3D reconstruction of the cardiac mass is made by successive acquisition of 2D sections, the spatial localisation and orientation of which require complex guiding systems. More recently, the concept of volumetric acquisition has been introduced. A matricial emitter-receiver probe complex with parallel data processing provides instantaneous of a pyramidal 64 degrees x 64 degrees volume. The image is restituted in real time and is composed of 3 planes (planes B and C) which can be displaced in all spatial directions at any time during acquisition. The flexibility of this system of acquisition allows volume and mass measurement with greater accuracy and reproducibility, limiting inter-observer variability. Free navigation of the planes of investigation allows reconstruction for qualitative and quantitative analysis of valvular heart disease and other pathologies. Although real time 3D echocardiography is ready for clinical usage, some improvements are still necessary to improve its conviviality. Then real time 3D echocardiography could be the essential tool for understanding, diagnosis and management of patients.

Review↗

Exploring the impacts of unprecedented climate extremes on forest ecosystems: hypotheses to guide modeling and experimental studies

Abstract. Climatic extreme events are expected to occur more frequently in the future, increasing the likelihood of unprecedented climate extremes (UCEs) or record-breaking events. UCEs, such as extreme heatwaves and droughts, substantially affect ecosystem stability and carbon cycling by increasing plant mortality and delaying ecosystem recovery. Quantitative knowledge of such effects is limited due to the paucity of experiments focusing on extreme climatic events beyond the range of historical experience. Here, we present a road map of how dynamic vegetation demographic models (VDMs) can be used to investigate hypotheses surrounding ecosystem responses to one type of UCE: unprecedented droughts. As a result of nonlinear ecosystem responses to UCEs that are qualitatively different from responses to milder extremes, we consider both biomass loss and recovery rates over time by reporting a time-integrated carbon loss as a result of UCE, relative to the absence of drought. Additionally, we explore how unprecedented droughts in combination with increasing atmospheric CO2 and/or temperature may affect ecosystem stability and carbon cycling. We explored these questions using simulations of pre-drought and post-drought conditions at well-studied forest sites using well-tested models (ED2 and LPJ-GUESS). The severity and patterns of biomass losses differed substantially between models. For example, biomass loss could be sensitive to either drought duration or drought intensity depending on the model approach. This is due to the models having different, but also plausible, representations of processes and interactions, highlighting the complicated variability of UCE impacts that still need to be narrowed down in models. Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (eCO2) alone did not completely buffer the ecosystems from carbon losses during UCEs in the majority of our simulations. Our findings highlight the consequences of differences in process formulations and uncertainties in models, most notably related to availability in plant carbohydrate storage and the diversity of plant hydraulic schemes, in projecting potential ecosystem responses to UCEs. We provide a summary of the current state and role of many model processes that give way to different underlying hypotheses of plant responses to UCEs, reflecting knowledge gaps which in future studies could be tested with targeted field experiments and an iterative modeling–experimental conceptual framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Microscopic and Metallurgical Aspects of the Space Shuttle Columbia Accident Investigation and Reconstruction

The Space Shuttle Columbia was descending for a landing at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) on February 1, 2003. Approximately 20 minutes prior to touchdown, the Columbia began disintegrating over the western United States; the majority of debris eventually impacted in eastern Texas and western Louisiana. A monumental effort eventually recovered approximately 84,000 pieces of debris, approximately 38% of the Orbiter's original dry weight. The debris was transported to KSC, where the items were catalogued and evaluated. Critical areas of interest, such as the left and right leading edge surfaces and the underside of the ship, were placed upon a grid to aid in the reconstruction. Items of interest included metallic structures, reinforced carbon-carbon composites, and ceramic heat insulation tiles. Many of the leading edge elements had re-solidified metallic deposits spattered on them. These deposits became known as slag and were one of the main focuses of the investigation. In order to help determine the sequence of events inside the left wing during the accident, the slag's composition, layering order, and directionality of deposition were studied. A myriad of analytical tests were performed in an attempt to ascertain the compositional and depositional characteristics of selected slag deposits, including the ordering of deposited layers within each individual slag deposit harvested. Initially, Scanning Electron Microscopy and Energy Dispersive X-Ray Spectroscopy (SEM/EDX) were performed to quickly characterize the overall composition of individual slag deposits: SEM utilizes a narrowlyfocused high-energy electron beam impinging upon a specimen. The incident beam excites and liberates lower energy secondary electrons, which are detected and analyzed, providing a visual representation of the sample's surface topography. EDX also relies on an incident electron beam, except an EDX unit measures X-ray energies generated by the impinging beam. Each element generates a unique X-ray signature; the EDX detector measures these discreet energies. EDX actually penetrates approximately 2 microns into the bulk of the sample. However, random examination of various portions of slag, coupled with the semiquantitative nature of the SEM/EDX analysis, did not yield convincingly pertinent data. Therefore, X-ray dot mapping was conducted, which provided more understandable data, both in terms of slag layering and composition. An X-ray dot map is generated by performing numerous EDX scans for individual elements, then compiling the scans in a visual representation. Eventually, specimens consisting of not only the slag, but of the adjacent RCC substrate as well were cross-sectioned. X-Ray dot mapping of the materialographicallymounted and -polished cross- sections provided a visual representation of both the layering sequence and compositional characteristics of the slag. Contemporaneously, Electron Spectroscopy for Chemical Analysis/X-Ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (ESCA/XPS) and powdered X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) were performed to further characterize the deposits and to attempt to identify what, if any, compounds were present. The ESCA/XPS analysis allowed the analyst to "sputter" into the sample with an electron gun, aiding in the identification of the layering sequence. XPS uses photons, rather than electrons, which impinge upon the surface of the sample. XPS measures the electrons emitted from within the first 5 nm of the sample's surface. The XRD measures the scatter angles of incident X-rays; the angle and intensity of scatter depend upon the crystalline structure of the pulverized sample. XRD is considered a qualitative rather than quantitative technique. ESCA/XPS revealed that the final layer to deposit was predominantly carbonaceous. XRD was successful in identifying specific compounds, such as Al 2O3, Al and/or Al3 21SiO47, mullite (3(Al2)O3 -SiO2), and nickel-aluminides. Eventually, Electron MicroProbe Analysis (EMPA) was conducted on the marialographically-prepared cross- sections of selected slag deposits. Microprobe combines SEM and Wavelength Dispersive X-Ray Spectroscopy (WDS), and, like EDX, uses a narrowly-focused high-energy electron beam impinging upon a specimen to elicit, in the case of EPMA, characteristic X-rays with specific wavelengths. This quantitative, analytical tool proved the most useful in determining depositional layering and composition of the slag deposits. This information was utilized in verifying the location of the breach in the left leading edge of the wing of the Columbia.

McDaniels, Steven J.↗

Divergent controls of soil organic carbon between observations and process-based models

Abstract The storage and cycling of soil organic carbon (SOC) are governed by multiple co-varying factors, including climate, plant productivity, edaphic properties, and disturbance history. Yet, it remains unclear which of these factors are the dominant predictors of observed SOC stocks, globally and within biomes, and how the role of these predictors varies between observations and process-based models. Here we use global observations and an ensemble of soil biogeochemical models to quantify the emergent importance of key state factors – namely, mean annual temperature, net primary productivity, and soil mineralogy – in explaining biome- to global-scale variation in SOC stocks. We use a machine-learning approach to disentangle the role of covariates and elucidate individual relationships with SOC, without imposing expected relationships a priori . While we observe qualitatively similar relationships between SOC and covariates in observations and models, the magnitude and degree of non-linearity vary substantially among the models and observations. Models appear to overemphasize the importance of temperature and primary productivity (especially in forests and herbaceous biomes, respectively), while observations suggest a greater relative importance of soil minerals. This mismatch is also evident globally. However, we observe agreement between observations and model outputs in select individual biomes – namely, temperate deciduous forests and grasslands, which both show stronger relationships of SOC stocks with temperature and productivity, respectively. This approach highlights biomes with the largest uncertainty and mismatch with observations for targeted model improvements. Understanding the role of dominant SOC controls, and the discrepancies between models and observations, globally and across biomes, is essential for improving and validating process representations in soil and ecosystem models for projections under novel future conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Remote Sensing of Crystal Shapes in Ice Clouds

Ice crystals in clouds exist in a virtually limitless variation of geometries. The most basic shapes of ice crystals are columnar or plate-like hexagonal prisms with aspect ratios determined by relative humidity and temperature. However, crystals in ice clouds generally display more complex structures owing to aggregation, riming and growth histories through varying temperature and humidity regimes. Crystal shape is relevant for cloud evolution as it affects microphysical properties such as fall speeds and aggregation efficiency. Furthermore, the scattering properties of ice crystals are affected by their general shape, as well as by microscopic features such as surface roughness, impurities and internal structure. To improve the representation of ice clouds in climate models, increased understanding of the global variation of crystal shape and how it relates to, e.g., location, cloud temperature and atmospheric state is crucial. Here, the remote sensing of ice crystal macroscale and microscale structure from airborne and space-based lidar depolarization observations and multi-directional measurements of total and polarized reflectances is reviewed. In addition, a brief overview is given of in situ and laboratory observations of ice crystal shape as well as the optical properties of ice crystals that serve as foundations for the remote sensing approaches. Lidar depolarization is generally found to increase with increasing cloud height and to vary with latitude. Although this variation is generally linked to the variation of ice crystal shape, the interpretation of the depolarization remains largely qualitative and more research is needed before quantitative conclusions about ice shape can be deduced. The angular variation of total and polarized reflectances of ice clouds has been analyzed by numerous studies in order to infer information about ice crystal shapes from them. From these studies it is apparent that pristine crystals with smooth surfaces are generally inconsistent with the data and thus crystal impurity, distortion or surface roughness is prevalent. However, conclusions about the dominating ice shapes are often inconclusive and contradictory and are highly dependent on the limited selection of shapes included in the investigations. Since ice crystal optical properties are mostly determined by the aspect ratios of the crystal components and their microscale structure, it is advised that remote sensing applications focus on the variation of these ice shape characteristics, rather than on the macroscale shape or habit. Recent studies use databases with nearly continuous ranges of crystal component aspect ratio and-or roughness levels to infer the variation of ice crystal shape from satellite and airborne remote sensing measurements. Here, the rationale and results of varying strategies for the remote sensing of ice crystal shape are reviewed. Observed systematic variations of ice crystal geometry with location, cloud height and atmospheric state suggested by the data are discussed. Finally, a prospective is given on the future of the remote sensing of ice cloud particle shapes.

clouds↗

Controlling Microbial Byproducts using Model-Based Substrate Monitoring and Control Strategies

We have developed a computer-controlled bioreactor system to study various aspects of microbially-mediated nitrogen cycling. The system has been used to investigate methods for controlling microbial denitrification (the dissimilatory reduction of nitrate to N2O and N2) in hydroponic plant growth chambers. Such chambers are key elements of advanced life support systems being designed for use on long duration space missions, but nitrogen use efficiency in them is reduced by denitrification. Control software architecture was designed which permits the heterogeneous control of system hardware using traditional feedback control, and quantitative and qualitative models of various system features. Model-based feed forward control entails prediction of future systems in states and automated regulation of system parameters to achieve desired and avoid undesirable system states. A bacterial growth rate model based on the classic Monod model of saturation kinetics was used to evaluate the response of several individual denitrifying species to varying environmental conditions. The system and models are now being applied to mixed microbial communities harvested from the root zone of a hydroponic growth chamber. The use of a modified Monod organism interaction model was evaluated as a means of achieving more accurate description of the dynamic behavior of the communities. A minimum variance parameter estimation routine was also' used to calibrate the constant parameters in the model by iterative evaluation of substrate (nitrate) uptake and growth kinetics. This representation of processes and interactions aids in the formulation of control laws. The feed forward control strategy being developed will increase system autonomy, reduce crew intervention and limit the accumulation of undesirable waste products (NOx).

Smernoff, David T.↗

Investigation of process history and underlying phenomena associated with the synthesis of plutonium oxides using Vector Quantizing Variational Autoencoder

Accurate, high throughput, and unbiased analysis of plutonium oxide particles is needed for analysis of the phenomenology associated with process parameters in their synthesis. Compared to qualitative and taxonomic descriptors, quantitative descriptors of particle morphology through scanning electron microscopy (SEM) have shown success in analyzing process parameters of uranium oxides. Among other candidates, a neural network called a Vector Quantizing Variational Autoencoder (VQ-VAE) has shown the ability to quantitatively describe particle morphology to attain >85% accuracy in identifying uranium oxide processing routes. We utilize a VQ-VAE to quantitatively describe plutonium dioxide (PuO 2 ) particles created in a designed experiment and investigate their phenomenology and prediction of their process parameters. PuO 2 was calcined from Pu(III) oxalates that were precipitated under varying synthetic conditions that related to concentrations, temperature, addition and digestion times, precipitant feed, and strike order; the surface morphology of the resulting PuO 2 powders were analyzed by SEM. A pipeline was developed to extract and quantify useful image representations for individual particles with the VQ-VAE, then further reduce the dimensionality of the feature space using a bottlenecking neural network fit to perform multiple classification tasks simultaneously. The reduced feature space could predict process parameters with greater than 80% accuracies for some parameters with a single particle. They also showed utility for grouping particles with similar surface morphology characteristics together. Both the clustering and classification results reveal valuable information regarding which chemical process parameters chiefly influence the PuO 2 particle morphologies: strike order and oxalic acid feedstock. Doing the same analysis with multiple particles was shown to improve the classification accuracy on each process parameter over the use of a single particle, with statistically significant results generally seen with as few as four particles in a sample.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Generative Model for Realistic Galaxy Cluster X-Ray Morphologies

Abstract The X-ray morphologies of clusters of galaxies display significant variations, reflecting their dynamical histories and the nonlinear dependence of X-ray emissivity on the density of the intracluster gas. Qualitative and quantitative assessments of X-ray morphology have long been considered a proxy for determining whether clusters are dynamically active or “relaxed.” Conversely, the use of circularly or elliptically symmetric models for cluster emission can be complicated by the variety of complex features realized in nature, spanning scales from megaparsecs down to the resolution limit of current X-ray observatories. In this work, we use mock X-ray images from simulated clusters from The Three Hundred project to define a basis set of cluster image features. We take advantage of the clusters’ approximate self-similarity to minimize the differences between images before encoding the remaining diversity through a distribution of high-order polynomial coefficients. Principal component analysis then provides an orthogonal basis for this distribution, corresponding to natural perturbations from an average model. This representation allows novel, realistically complex X-ray cluster images to be easily generated, and we provide code to do so. The approach provides a simple way to generate training data for cluster image analysis algorithms and could be straightforwardly adapted to generate clusters displaying specific types of features or selected by physical characteristics available in the original simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Visual Analytics Approach to Debugging Cooperative, Autonomous Multi-Robot Systems’ Worldviews

Autonomous multi-robot systems, where a team of robots shares information to perform tasks that are beyond an individual robot’s abilities, hold great promise for a number of applications, such as planetary exploration missions. Each robot in a multi- robot system autonomously schedules which robots should perform a given task and when, using its worldview–the robot’s internal representation of its belief about the environment and other robots’ states. A key problem for operators is that robots’ worldviews can fall out of sync (often due to weak communication links), leading to desynchronization of the robots’ scheduling decisions and inconsistent emergent behavior (e.g., tasks not performed, or performed by multiple robots). Operators face the time-consuming and difficult task of making sense of the robots’ scheduling decisions, detecting de-synchronizations, and pinpointing their cause by comparing every robot’s worldview. To address these challenges, we introduce MOSAIC Viewer, a visual analytics system that helps operators (i) make sense of the robots’ schedules and (ii) detect and conduct a root cause analysis of the robots’ desynchronized worldviews. Over a year-long partnership with roboticists at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, a formative study was performed to identify the necessary system design requirements, which supports the design of the system. A qualitative study with 12 roboticists reveals that MOSAIC Viewer is faster- and easier-to-use than the users’ current approaches, and it allows them to stitch low-level details to formulate a high-level understanding of the robots’ schedules and detect and pin-point the cause of desynchronized worldviews.

Ma, Kwan-Liu↗

Navier-Stokes, flight, and wind tunnel flow analysis for the F/A-18 aircraft

Computational analysis of flow over the F/A-18 aircraft is presented along with complementary data from both flight and wind tunnel experiments. The computational results are based on the three-dimensional thin-layer Navier-Stokes formulation and are obtained from an accurate surface representation of the fuselage, leading-edge extension (LEX), and the wing geometry. However, the constraints imposed by either the flow solver and/or the complexity associated with the flow-field grid generation required certain geometrical approximations to be implemented in the present numerical model. In particular, such constraints inspired the removal of the empennage and the blocking (fairing) of the inlet face. The results are computed for three different free-stream flow conditions and compared with flight test data of surface pressure coefficients, surface tuft flow, and off-surface vortical flow characteristics that included breakdown phenomena. Excellent surface pressure coefficient correlations, both in terms of magnitude and overall trend, are obtained on the forebody throughout the range of flow conditions. Reasonable pressure agreement was obtained over the LEX; the general correlation tends to improve at higher angles of attack. The surface tuft flow and the off-surface vortex flow structures compared qualitatively well with the flight test results. To evaluate the computational results, a wind tunnel investigation was conducted to determine the effects of existing configurational differences between the flight vehicle and the numerical model on aerodynamic characteristics. In most cases, the geometrical approximations made to the numerical model had very little effect on overall aerodynamic characteristics.

Ghaffari, Farhad↗

On the Reconstruction of Palaeo-Ice Sheets: Recent Advances and Future Challenges

Reconstructing the growth and decay of palaeo-ice sheets is critical to understanding mechanisms of global climate change and associated sea-level fluctuations in the past, present and future. The significance of palaeo-ice sheets is further underlined by the broad range of disciplines concerned with reconstructing their behaviour, many of which have undergone a rapid expansion since the 1980s. In particular, there has been a major increase in the size and qualitative diversity of empirical data used to reconstruct and date ice sheets, and major improvements in our ability to simulate their dynamics in numerical ice sheet models. These developments have made it increasingly necessary to forge interdisciplinary links between sub-disciplines and to link numerical modelling with observations and dating of proxy records. The aim of this paper is to evaluate recent developments in the methods used to reconstruct ice sheets and outline some key challenges that remain, with an emphasis on how future work might integrate terrestrial and marine evidence together with numerical modelling. Our focus is on pan-ice sheet reconstructions of the last deglaciation, but regional case studies are used to illustrate methodological achievements, challenges and opportunities. Whilst various disciplines have made important progress in our understanding of ice-sheet dynamics, it is clear that data-model integration remains under-used, and that uncertainties remain poorly quantified in both empirically-based and numerical ice-sheet reconstructions. The representation of past climate will continue to be the largest source of uncertainty for numerical modelling. As such, palaeo-observations are critical to constrain and validate modelling. State-of-the-art numerical models will continue to improve both in model resolution and in the breadth of inclusion of relevant processes, thereby enabling more accurate and more direct comparison with the increasing range of palaeo-observations. Thus, the capability is developing to use all relevant palaeo-records to more strongly constrain deglacial (and to a lesser extent pre-LGM) ice sheet evolution. In working towards that goal, the accurate representation of uncertainties is required for both constraint data and model outputs. Close cooperation between modelling and data-gathering communities is essential to ensure this capability is realised and continues to progress.

Ice sheet reconstruction↗

Modeling the effect of wind speed and direction shear on utility‐scale wind turbine power production

Abstract Wind speed and direction variations across the rotor affect power production. As utility‐scale turbines extend higher into the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) with larger rotor diameters and hub heights, they increasingly encounter more complex wind speed and direction variations. We assess three models for power production that account for wind speed and direction shear. Two are based on actuator disc representations, and the third is a blade element representation. We also evaluate the predictions from a standard power curve model that has no knowledge of wind shear. The predictions from each model, driven by wind profile measurements from a profiling LiDAR, are compared to concurrent power measurements from an adjacent utility‐scale wind turbine. In the field measurements of the utility‐scale turbine, discrete combinations of speed and direction shear induce changes in power production of −19% to +34% relative to the turbine power curve for a given hub height wind speed. Positive speed shear generally corresponds to over‐performance and increasing magnitudes of direction shear to greater under‐performance, relative to the power curve. Overall, the blade element model produces both higher correlation and lower error relative to the other models, but its quantitative accuracy depends on induction and controller sub‐models. To further assess the influence of complex, non‐monotonic wind profiles, we also drive the models with best‐fit power law wind speed profiles and linear wind direction profiles. These idealized inputs produce qualitative and quantitative differences in power predictions from each model, demonstrating that time‐varying, non‐monotonic wind shear affects wind power production.

Energy & Fuels↗

Implementation and Exploration of Parameterizations of Large-Scale Dynamics in NCAR's Single Column Atmosphere Model SCAM6

A single column model with parameterized large-scale (LS) dynamics is used to better understand the response of steady-state tropical precipitation to relative sea surface temperature under various representations of radiation, convection, and circulation. The large-scale dynamics are parametrized via the weak temperature gradient (WTG), damped gravity wave (DGW), and spectral weak temperature gradient (Spectral WTG) method in NCAR's Single Column Atmosphere Model (SCAM6). Radiative cooling is either specified or interactive, and the convective parameterization is run using two different values of a parameter that controls the degree of convective inhibition. Results are interpreted in the context of the Global Atmospheric System Studies -Weak Temperature Gradient (GASS-WTG) Intercomparison project. Using the same parameter settings and simulation configuration as in the GASS-WTG Intercomparison project, SCAM6 under the WTG and DGW methods produces erratic results, suggestive of numerical instability. However, when key parameters are changed to weaken the large-scale circulation's damping of tropospheric temperature variations, SCAM6 performs comparably to single column models in the GASS-WTG Intercomparison project. The Spectral WTG method is less sensitive to changes in convection and radiation than are the other two methods, performing qualitatively similarly across all configurations considered. Under all three methods, circulation strength, represented in 1D by grid-scale vertical velocity, is decreased when barriers to convection are reduced. This effect is most extreme under specified radiative cooling, and is shown to come from increased static stability in the column's reference radiative-convective equilibrium profile. This argument can be extended to interactive radiation cases as well, though perhaps less conclusively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Evaluation of an Analytical Simulation of an Airplane with Tailplane Icing by Comparison to Flight Data

This report presents the assessment of an analytical tool developed as part of the NASA/FAA Tailplane Icing Program. The analytical tool is a specialized simulation program called TAILSM4 which was developed to model the effects of tailplane icing on the flight dynamics Twin Otter Icing Research Aircraft. This report compares the responses of the TAILSIM program directly to flight test data. The comparisons should be useful to potential users of TAILSIM. The comparisons show that the TAILSIM program qualitatively duplicates the flight test aircraft response during maneuvers with ice on the tailplane. TAILSIM is shown to be quantitatively "in the ballpark" in predicting when Ice Contaminated Tailplane Stall will occur during pushover and thrust transition maneuvers. As such, TAILSIM proved its usefulness to the flight test program by providing a general indication of the aircraft configuration and flight conditions of concern. The aircraft dynamics are shown to be modeled correctly by the equations of motion used in TAILSIM. However, the general accuracy of the TAILSIM responses is shown to be less than desired primarily due to inaccuracies in the aircraft database. The high sensitivity of the TAILSIM program responses to small changes in load factor command input is also shown to be a factor in the accuracy of the responses. A pilot model is shown to allow TAILSIM to produce more accurate responses and contribute significantly to the usefulness of the program. Suggestions to improve the accuracy of the TAILSIM responses are to further refine the database representation of the aircraft aerodynamics and tailplane flowfield and to explore a more realistic definition of the pilot model.

Hiltner, Dale W.↗