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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Front-End Engineering and Design: Project Tundra Carbon Capture System (Final Report)

As the next phase of Project Tundra, Minnkota Power Cooperative (MPC) completed a front-end engineering and design (FEED) study to install a post-combustion CO 2 capture system (CCS) at the MPC operated (Square Butte Electric Cooperative-owned) Milton R. Young Station (MRYS) Unit 2 (MRY2), a 477-MW power plant fueled by North Dakota lignite. The project team completed the FEED with Fluor’s Econamine FG Plus℠ (EFG+) technology and is taking the next steps leading up to start of construction. Team members included FEED technical lead Fluor Enterprises (Fluor); owner’s engineer and balance of plant (BOP) engineer Burns & McDonnell (BMcD); leading carbon capture consultants (David Greeson Consulting, Hunt International Energy Services); environmental consultants (AECOM, Agora Environmental), other BOP engineering consultants (Golder Associates, Nels); cost-share funding agency, the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC); and the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC). Project Tundra’s goal is to implement carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in North Dakota, while preserving the use of lignite. Future options could lead to revitalizing legacy oil fields and creating a new CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) industry. The topic of this report is the FEED study for the carbon dioxide capture portion of Project Tundra. Building on the findings of a pre-FEED study for MRY2, the key deliverables contained in this FEED study are: a) design, costing, and performance data needed to commence project financing activities; b) engineering and material balances required to file for all project permits; and c) a final project schedule. Based on the results of the previous pre-FEED study, MPC and its team evaluated two options to provide the large amount of steam needed to operate the CCS: 1) installation of new natural gas package boilers and a new pipeline to supply natural gas to the facility and 2) extraction of steam from the existing MRYS steam turbine generator. The FEED study was performed using the package boilers option, as it was deemed to have the lowest technical risk, overall cost, and cost uncertainty. A key feature of the design, however, was the mixing the natural gas boilers’ flue gas with the MRY2 flue gas. This increased the size of the CCS system. This design also enabled the tie-in of Unit 1 flue gas for times when Unit 2 is offline. The CCS was designed to capture a combined 12,978 short tons per day (STPD) of CO 2 from the flue gases produced by the existing MRY Unit 2 along with flue gas produced by the new boiler package within the CCS. The 12,978 STPD CO 2 capture is achieved by normally processing 100% of the total available MRY Unit 2 flue gas (considering full load operation) and 100% of the boiler package flue gas, then removing 90% of the CO 2 available from the processed flue gas streams.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2023

Maritime Fuel Cell Generator Project: 2018 – 2023

This report summarizes activity in the Maritime Fuel Cell (MarFC) Generator Project from 2018 – 2023. FY 2018 saw the implementation of upgrades and repairs, making the unit more reliable and operator friendly. In FY2019 the team engaged the Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO) to use the MarFC to provide zero-emission shore power to the research vessel R/V Robert Gordon Sproul while in port at the Nimitz Marine Facility in San Diego, CA. In FY2020, the MarFC unit was shipped to San Diego, CA. A fueling contract with IGX was established to support MarFC operations at SIO, with renewable hydrogen provided by the California State University Los Angeles (CSULA) hydrogen station. The project team (Sandia, Cummins/Hydrogenics) provided training to SIO staff on the technical details of the MarFC, the safe use of hydrogen in general and the MarFC in particular. The first fueling of the unit at the SIO pier was successfully completed by IGX. The first powering of a vessel with fuel-cell shore power was conducted with the R/V Robert Gordon Sproul. While the mechanical systems (lights, AC, ventilation, hydraulics, pumps and cranes) were powered without incident, problems arose when powering the computer systems. Inspections carried out in FY2021 revealed the MarFC needed routine maintenance. Maintenance was performed and the unit was upgraded. The MarFC was turned on after the year pause, and initial test data on power levels and stability were collected. FY2022 was a year spent repairing, upgrading and testing the MarFC unit. Spikes in power and voltage were observed above 60 kW that could potentially extend below 60 kW with time. Such spikes could cause problems with the Sproul electrical systems. These age-related problems, the extended time for the Sproul spent in dry dock for scheduled upgrades, and the associated need to reschedule the vessel’s high-priority science missions made it no longer possible to deploy the unit at SIO. After due consideration, the decision was made by DOE, MARAD and the project team to cease the deployment, remove the MarFC from SIO, and not pursue further deployment activities. On December 2, 2022, the MarFC unit was removed from the Scripps Nimitz Marine Facility and shipped to Fridley, Michigan. The Cummins/Hydrogenics plan for the unit is to assess the condition of the MarFC subcomponents, and then use it as a training/learning system for technical employees new to hydrogen fuel-cell technology. After summarizing project activity from 2018 – 2023, this report provides a review of lessons learned. This report provides next steps in contemplating a follow-on project that would further advance the use of fuel-cell-based shore power in a marine setting. A comparison is made of the project results to the original objectives. This report ends with an accounting of presentations stemming from the project, and a list of references.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating GHG Mitigation Potential from ESPC Projects [Slides]

This report explores the impact of implemented ESPC projects on the projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions in the U.S. buildings sector, and the associated projected annual cost savings and marginal abatement costs. It is important to investigate the role that energy retrofits can play in achieving GHG emission reduction targets given the use of ESPC by public agencies to reduce emissions from energy use in addition to the historical use of ESPC to to achieve cost/energy savings and ancillary benefits (e.g., addressing deferred maintenance, aging infrastructure, etc.). The analysis draws from LBNL’s eProject Builder (ePB) database, which contains approximately 3,000 energy retrofit projects implemented by energy service companies (ESCOs), mostly energy savings performance contract (ESPC) projects. This is the first report to model GHG emission reductions from ongoing ESPC projects in the U.S public sector based on ePB project data. It is intended for policymakers, federal, state and local government officials and other potential ESPC customers, the ESCO industry, researchers, and other energy policy professionals.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stormwater Pollution Prevention Plan (SWPPP) for Site Wide Landscaping Project

Kier + Wright, as Qualified SWPPP Developer (QSD), puts forth this Storm Water Pollution Prevention Plan (SWPPP) for the SNL/CA Site Landscaping Project at Sandia National Laboratories/California (SNL/CA), 7011 East Avenue, Livermore, California (SNL/CA). The property is owned by the U.S. Department of Energy, and managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia (NTESS), LLC. The project proposes landscape improvements throughout SNL/CA. Per the California State Water Resources Control Board’s (California State Water Board) Construction General Permit (CGP), a SWPPP is required when 1 acre or more of land is disturbed. The project site area exceeds the minimum acreage threshold of 1 acre and therefore requires SWPPP implementation. QSD has determined the sediment risk for this project, based on soil type at the site and starting and ending dates of construction, to be low (Section 3.4.1 and Appendix B). Receiving water for this project is the Arroyo Seco. QSD has determined the Arroyo Seco to be a high-risk receiving water because it has the three beneficial uses of “spawn”, “cold”, and “migratory” (Sections 3.3 and 3.4.2 and Appendix B). QSD has determined the overall risk level for the site to be Risk Level 2, based on a combination of low sediment risk and high receiving water risk (Appendix B). As such, QSD has delineated a variety of Best Management Practices (BMPs) to be employed during project construction to reduce or eliminate pollutants in stormwater runoff or any other discharges from the Project site. In addition to site-specific BMPs, this SWPPP report provides instruction for on site monitoring. Electronic copies of required documentation such as inspection reports, REAPs, annual report documentation, etc. shall be submitted to NTESS Sandia Delegated Representative via Newforma.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

CMIP6-based Multi-model Streamflow Projections over the Conterminous US

This dataset presents an ensemble of streamflow projections based on the hydroclimate projections dataset supporting the SECURE Water Act Section 9505 Assessment for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO). The six-member General Climate Model (GCM) ensemble from the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) downscaled using statistical (i.e., DBCCA) and dynamical (i.e., RegCM) and bias-corrected using two meteorological reference observations (Daymet & Livneh) are driven through two calibrated hydrologic models (VIC & PRMS) to simulate projected future hydrologic responses. This leads to the production of an ensemble of hydroclimate projections, including total runoff (surface runoff and baseflow) for 1980–2019 baseline and 2020–2059 near-term future periods under multiple emission scenarios at 1/24° (~4 km) spatial resolution across the CONUS. The total runoff projections are routed through the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID) routing model to produce an ensemble of streamflow projections for both periods across 2.7 million NHDPlusV2 stream reaches in the CONUS.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-Temperature Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (HT-ATES) Projects in Germany and the Netherlands—Review and Lessons Learned

Aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) is a concept that can help to address heating and cooling needs through the use of the subsurface as a seasonal thermal energy storage (STES) system. Over 2800 ATES systems have been deployed with storage temperatures typically below 25 °C and only a few with higher temperatures (>40 °C), which would increase the energy density and utility of the stored thermal fluids. Until now, only a few high-temperature aquifer thermal energy storage (HT-ATES) projects have been initiated and are still in operation. These HT-ATES projects have encountered a range of technical and non-technical challenges. This study reviews ten such projects: four in Germany and six in the Netherlands. The non-technical issues include public acceptance, a lack of regulatory framework for these systems, managing overlapping uses of the subsurface, managing changes with the providers and off-takers of thermal energy, and obtaining financing to implement these projects. Common technical issues include geological factors such as incomplete characterization of the subsurface and reservoir heterogeneity; geochemical issues such as mineral scaling, corrosion, and biofouling; lower than expected thermal recovery; and issues with system design and reliability. This review highlights benefits and challenges faced by HT-ATES projects with the goal to use the lessons learned to improve the siting, design, development, and operation of such systems. Recommendations include improved initial subsurface site characterization, use of coupled process models to optimize system design and predict system performance, cascaded uses of stored thermal energy to better utilize the stored heat, monitoring networks to provide feedback on system performance, and expanded system scale to allow for continued operation even when maintenance of some system components is required. Techno-economic modeling and risk analysis could be used to optimize such HT-ATES project design and identify key factors that will affect sustained economic viability. In addition, design flexibility is important for these systems to allow for changing conditions regarding the supply and demand of thermal energy. Adopting these findings should improve the performance and reduce the risks for future HT-ATES projects worldwide.

15 - GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Improved Risk Priority Measure for the Management of Project Risk

Monte Carlo-based project risk models are essential tools in project risk management, particularly for large, complex projects in which it is difficult to glean intuitively the importance of individual risks to the overall project. Conventional correlation-based methods for measuring the importance of contributing risks in such models are argued here to be both statistically flawed and unintuitive in the importance metrics they produce. Drawing on and adapting methods more traditionally associated with engineering risk models, Risk Reduction Worth (RRW) is introduced as an importance measure. RRW is shown to be statistically robust and provide an easily interpretable, quantitative measure of the importance of a risk to the overall performance of a project; specifically, measuring the extent to which removal of a risk would improve confidence in project outcomes. To ensure practicality of the method, an approach is described in which RRWs can be produced for all contributing risks based on a single Monte Carlo sample. This is demonstrated through application to a large, complex project risk model from which intuitive risk importance insights provide a robust, transparent basis for the allocation of risk management resources.

Risk↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bio-project “derisking” through development of systematic methodologies and frameworks for risk assessment

One of the primary hindrances to producing a viable, sustainable domestic biomass industry for renewable biofuels, bio-products and bio-power is the lack of understanding and quantification of the risks associated with both the biomass supply chain and preprocessing and conversion technologies. Currently a consistent method for assessing, comparing, and quantifying risks in biomass supply chains does not exist, creating a major investment barrier to bioenergy projects in the U.S. The lack of a standardized approach has resulted in bioenergy stakeholders independently using inconsistent approaches and evaluation criteria, leading to unreliable and incomparable assessments of risks and financing barriers to bio-project development. Along with the challenges of inconsistent risk assessment for supply chain risk, technology specific risks based on variability in biomass properties are not fully understood and can pose significant unforeseen challenges for bioenergy projects. In many cases these properties have not yet been identified and the impacts on the proposed technology and products unquantified. This is particularly challenging for emerging preprocessing and conversion technologies. Without a firm understanding of the preprocessing/conversion technology-specific critical properties, the risk of a proposed bio-project cannot be fully evaluated. To address inconsistent risk evaluation in the biomass supply chain supporting project financing, a Biomass Supply Chain Risk Standards (BSCRS) framework was developed. The BSCRS framework includes a comprehensive list of known and perceived risks (Risk Indicators) to the supply chain developed through 100’s of interviews with bioenergy industry experts spanning from feedstock growers and suppliers to representatives from the financial sector. These risks have been organized into a manageable hierarchy of Risk Categories and Risk Factors that can be practically assessed. This BSCRS framework also provides mitigation strategies for multiple Risk Indicators from best available industry practices and research findings. Additionally, a risk quantification methodology for each Risk Factor, Risk Category, and the bio-project as a whole was developed to enable capital markets to assess feedstock risk more efficiently and more accurately. Multiple case studies representing existing bio-projects have been used to evaluate and verify the BSCRS framework and scoring methodology. To address technological risk along with the supply chain risk captured in the developed BSCRS framework, this work also focuses on development of a systematic criticality assessment tool using well-accepted, quantitative risk analysis methods to evaluate bioenergy feedstock critical properties impacting system unit operations. The proposed Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) approach uses a team of subject area experts (SAEs) for each targeted unit operation within a system. Collectively, the team will develop and use a quantitative scoring system to assess the material attributes, process parameters, and quality attributes for key unit operations that have already been identified. The FMEA process generates Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs) for the various failures and predominant causes for each material/process unit/product combination resulting in a semi-quantitative, standardized methodology for assessing technological risk and biomass properties contributing to that risk.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Lessons Learned from Hanford's Purex Tunnel 2 Structural Stabilization Project - 20509

In 2019, U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) contractor CH2M Hill Plateau Remediation Company (CHPRC) completed structurally stabilizing the Plutonium Uranium Extraction Plant (Purex) waste storage Tunnel 2 with engineered grout. This action significantly reduced risk to Hanford workers, the surrounding community and environment by preventing future collapse of the tunnel and possible release of radioactive materials. Decades of plutonium production at the Purex facility required construction of two large underground tunnels for storage of highly contaminated plutonium processing equipment that had failed during the operation of Purex and other facilities across the Hanford Site. Following the partial collapse of Purex Tunnel 1 on May 9, 2017, DOE and CHPRC took immediate action to safely stabilize the collapsed section of the tunnel. The hole in the tunnel was filled the next day as a temporary stabilization measure, and no contamination was detected as a result of the partial collapse of the tunnel. Workers then stabilized Tunnel 1 in its entirety by filling with engineered grout, which also encapsulated the radioactive equipment and railcars within the tunnel. Grouting eliminated the risk of further collapse and stabilized the tunnel contents, all while not precluding future remedial actions or final closure decisions. While conducting an integrity analysis of Tunnel 1 by using construction drawings, photos and other historical documents, project teams also analyzed the much larger Purex Tunnel 2. The analysis found Tunnel 2 did not meet current codes for structural integrity, and it may not be able to bear the weight of the soil above the tunnel. Therefore, it was determined that Tunnel 2 was also at risk of collapse. DoE's independent panel of experts determined grouting to be the best choice for stabilizing Tunnel 2 because it provides the highest level of stability and protection, and does not preclude future remedial actions. DOE authorized CHPRC to commence work and the Purex Tunnel 2 Structural Stabilization Project was launched in December of 2017. The paper will discuss the process of recognizing the following critical aspects and risks associated with stabilizing Tunnel 2, and the actions taken by the project team to mitigate these risks, including: - Tunnel investigation and data collection to assist with future remediation; - On-site batching and mock-ups to provide the large quantity of grout required for stabilizing the tunnel; - Workforce involvement and innovative actions that mitigated the project's most significant potential hazards, including traffic control; - Project team high level of execution translated into successful project execution. Sharing lessons learned from this critical risk-reduction effort can enhance the safety and efficiency of other complex and hazardous projects across the DOE complex. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Better Climate Challenge Working Groups Non-Energy Benefits of Energy Projects-Improving Financial Payback

Energy efficiency is a key strategy recently identified by the United States Department of Energy as a pillar of industrial decarbonization. For manufacturing companies, improving energy efficiency will reduce money spent on energy utilities such as gas, electricity, and oil. Energy improvement projects also provide valuable benefits outside of simple operating cost reductions, such as reducing the carbon footprint, improving safety metrics and even enhancing quality and productivity. Unfortunately, energy efficiency projects have typically faced an adoption gap, even when they meet criteria such as payback period for capital projects. The inclusion and quantification of non-energy benefits (NEBs), also known as co-benefits, in the decision-making process for energy efficiency projects can improve the overall financial payback periods for those projects as well as potentially improve the company's key performance metrics aligned with business strategies. There are no readily available tools that facilitate this, however, and the most used tools for energy audits address NEBs in a perfunctory way if at all. We integrated research for finding and quantifying non-energy benefits of energy efficiency projects into a commonly recognized continuous improvement practice, the Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve and Control (DMAIC) Process. This process, along with software and supplemental materials, guides energy assessments to find and to quantify NEBs associated with energy conservation opportunities. Our aim is to deliver an easy to use and effective process and software tool and to maximize return on investment for energy efficiency projects as well as contribute to companies' strategic performance goals.

DMAIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multiple Metrics Informed Projections of Future Precipitation in China

Predicting how regional precipitation will respond to future warming is among the most challenging undertaking in climate change projection. Despite sustained efforts to improve modeling and understanding of precipitation, the overall uncertainty in projecting regional precipitation has not been reduced substantially. In this work, the potential for more robust precipitation projections is demonstrated through the use of discriminating metrics to subsample the multimodel ensemble. Using a two-dimensional metric of precipitation and its relationship with large-scale circulation indices in East Asia, 31 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are classified into three groups. Models in the top performing group projected statistically significant increasing trends in precipitation and the regional precipitation patterns are more similar to each other than to the patterns in the bottom performing group. In contrast, models in the bottom performing group projected diverse responses, with overall small drying or no significant trends in precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multivariate Drought Monitoring, Propagation, and Projection Using Bias-Corrected General Circulation Models

Understanding how droughts are characterized, propagated, and projected, particularly multivariate droughts, is necessary to explain the variability and changes in drought characteristics. This study aims to understand multimodel global drought monitoring, propagation, and projection by utilizing a multivariate standardized drought index (MSDI) during the historical (1959–2014) and future (2045–2100) periods under two socioeconomic pathways SSPs (370 and 585), derived from the bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Based on the energy metrics, the multivariate bias correction method outperformed other techniques in correcting the biases in the CMIP6 drought representation. The drought indicators demonstrate distinct categories for meteorological, hydrological, and multivariate droughts. There were significant high cross correlations between Heatwave Total Length (HWTL) and MSDI in Africa and South America for all lagged times. Europe and North America generally saw the maximum MSDI drought duration (228 months) during the historical period. For future projections, Africa recorded the maximum drought duration (197 months), while Europe witnessed the minimum drought duration for SSP 370 (171 months), and North America (149 months) for SSP 585. Furthermore, during the historical period in tropical Africa, the propagation of meteorological to hydrological drought was slower during the wet months than during the dry months. Under the SSP 370 future projection, there was a shift in the long period of meteorological-hydrological propagation from the middle and late wet months to the beginning of the wet months in tropical Africa. Therefore, tracking and projecting drought characteristics is vital for understanding the risk of drought-related consequences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Projected income data under different shared socioeconomic pathways for Washington state

Abstract High-resolution income projections under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are essential for the climate change research communities to devise climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. To generate income projections for Washington state, we obtain state-level GDP per capita projections and convert them into projected annual household income. The resulting state-level income projections are subsequently downscaled to the census block-level based on the Longitudinal Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (LODES) dataset. For accuracy assessment, we downscale historical income data from state- level to block- and block group-level and compare the downscaled results against the actual income data from LODES. County-level accuracy assessment is also conducted based on American Community Survey. The results demonstrate a good agreement (Average R 2 of 0.67, 0.8, and 0.99 for block-, block group-, and county-level, respectively) between the downscaled income data and the reference data, thereby validating the methodology employed. Our approach is applicable to other states for income projections, which can be utilized by a broader audience, including those involved in demographic analysis, economic research, and urban planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Projected future daily characteristics of African precipitation based on global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORDEX-CORE) climate models

In this work, we provide an assessment of future daily characteristics of African precipitation by explicitly comparing the results of large ensembles of global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORE) climate models, specifically highlighting the similarities and inconsistencies between them. Results for seasonal mean precipitation are not always consistent amongst ensembles: in particular, global models tend to project a wetter future compared to regional models, especially over the Eastern Sahel, Central and East Africa. However, results for other precipitation characteristics are more consistent. In general, all ensembles project an increase in maximum precipitation intensity during the wet season over all regions and emission scenarios (except the West Sahel for CORE) and a decrease in precipitation frequency (under the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5) especially over the West Sahel, the Atlas region, southern central Africa, East Africa and southern Africa. Depending on the season, the length of dry spells is projected to increase consistently by all ensembles and for most (if not all) models over southern Africa, the Ethiopian highlands and the Atlas region. Discrepancies exist between global and regional models on the projected change in precipitation characteristics over specific regions and seasons. For instance, over the Eastern Sahel in July–August most global models show an increase in precipitation frequency but regional models project a robust decrease. Global and regional models also project an opposite sign in the change of the length of dry spells. CORE results show a marked drying over the regions affected by the West Africa monsoon throughout the year, accompanied by a decrease in mean precipitation intensity between May and July that is not present in the other ensembles. This enhanced drying may be related to specific physical mechanisms that are better resolved by the higher resolution models and highlights the importance of a process-based evaluation of the mechanisms controlling precipitation over the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Characterization and qualification of neutron radiation effects – Summary of Japan-USA Joint Projects for 40 years

The Joint Projects under the Japan-USA Fusion Cooperation Program started in 1981 and has continued for more than 40 years. In the Joint Projects, although a wide range of fusion materials and engineering issues were covered, neutron radiation effects on fusion reactor materials have always been the major research emphases, and the neutron irradiation facilities in the US were jointly used by Japanese and US researchers. Japanese test facilities including neutron and charged particle irradiation facilities were complementarily used. Here, the initial focus of the Joint Projects was on fundamental fusion neutron radiation effects and irradiation correlation. Systematic comparison of fission and fusion radiation effects in comparable damage levels and the effects of transmutation-induced helium were investigated. The collaboration was then focused on the effect of dynamic irradiation effects in variable conditions. In addition to the relatively fundamental studies, the Joint Projects contributed largely to development of candidate materials such as RAFM steels, vanadium alloys, SiC/SiC composites, and tungsten alloys, through a mechanism-oriented approach. The Joint Projects also covered issues specific to materials application to fusion blankets and plasma-facing components, including neutron radiation effects such as tritium retention and permeation of neutron-irradiated plasma-facing materials. Various irradiation technologies were developed and applied to the irradiation experiments, including those for in-situ testing.Considering that high energy neutron sources, such as A-FNS and IFMIF-DONES, now have high viability, the research supporting the neutron source programs is essential. The knowledge obtained through the Joint Projects is valuable and should be advanced for this purpose. To this end, it is of urgent necessity to launch an international scientific program accumulating knowledge of fusion neutron radiation effects, including their fundamental aspects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Large Divergence in Tropical Hydrological Projections Caused by Model Spread in Vegetation Responses to Elevated CO 2

Increasing atmospheric CO 2 and associated global warming are expected to alter the global hydrological cycle, thereby posing widespread threats to freshwater availability. However, future hydrological projections differ greatly between models, particularly over the tropical regions. The large difference between model projections directly limits policy planning efforts, and the responsible modeling processes remain unclear. Here, we identify the primary processes accounting for model differences in tropical hydrological changes using multiple CO 2 sensitivity experiments in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We show that differences in projected changes to tropical evapotranspiration, precipitation, and surface water availability mainly arise from model representations of vegetation cover and stomatal conductance responses to elevated CO 2 and associated changes in atmospheric moisture and circulation. Atmospheric responses to sea surface warming contribute additionally to the divergence in hydrological projections. Given the importance of vegetation responses to elevated CO 2 and associated atmosphere feedbacks, our results underscore the need to improve representations of the vegetation physiological response to rising CO 2 and its coupling to the atmosphere, to provide reliable tropical hydrological projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Emergent Constrained Projections of Mean and Extreme Warming in China

Reliable regional temperature projections including heat extremes are essential for climate change adaptation and mitigation. Taking China as an example, simple averages from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models project high warming due to sampling many high climate sensitivities in the ensemble. Here, we develop an emergent constraint (EC) framework to obtain constrained mean and daily maximum temperature (TXx) warming over China by using observed global warming and local residual warming. The constrained annual mean and TXx warming over China (2.33°C [1.61–3.05°C] and 2.31°C [1.21–2.99°C]) are 0.65°C [0.04–1.76°C] and 0.63°C [–0.50–2.39°C], respectively, lower than raw projections (2.98°C [1.85–4.22°C] and 2.94°C [2.04–4.39°C]) for 2080–2099 under the intermediate-emission scenario. Approximately half model uncertainty is reduced after constraint. The land area (population) experiencing temperature extremes in our metric is 78% (85%) of the raw projections. Our results imply a lower impact of extreme heat than implied by current raw CMIP6 projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projection of Future Fire Emissions Over the Contiguous US Using Explainable Artificial Intelligence and CMIP6 Models

Abstract Increasing temperature and water cycle changes due to warming climate may increase the frequency and intensity of wildfires. Fire emission projections are useful for informing strategies for adaptation and mitigation of fire impacts on societies and ecosystems. Here, we construct a neural network (NN) model explained by the Shapley Additive explanation to predict fire PM 2.5 emissions change and understand their drivers over the contiguous US (CONUS) in the mid‐21st century under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP5‐8.5). Using future meteorology and leaf area index (LAI) simulated by eight global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, future population density, and present‐day land use and land cover (LULC) as input to the NN model, the total fire PM 2.5 emissions over CONUS are projected to increase by 4%–75% (model spread). Among different regions, fire emissions in the western US are projected to increase more significantly in June‐July‐August than in other seasons and regions, with the median ratios of future to present‐day fire emissions ranging from 1.67 to 2.86. The increases in fire emissions are mainly driven by increasing normalized temperature (23%–29%) and decreasing soil moisture (2%–10%) in the future. When future LULC change is considered, the projected fire emissions further increase by 58%–83% over the western US compared to projections without LULC change because of future increases in vegetation fraction. The results highlight the important role of warmer temperature, decreasing soil moisture, and LULC change in increasing fire emissions in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗