Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Population estimates”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 163 records · Page 9

Radar Measurements of Small Debris from HUSIR and HAX

For many years, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has been collecting measurements of the orbital debris environment from the Haystack Ultra-wideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR) and its auxiliary (HAX). These measurements sample the small debris population in low earth orbit (LEO). This paper will provide an overview of recent observations and highlight trends in selected debris populations. Using the NASA size estimation model, objects with a characteristic size of 1 cm and larger observed from HUSIR will be presented. Also, objects with a characteristic size of 2 cm and larger observed from HAX will be presented.

Hamilton, Joseph↗

Forecasting the Change of Renal Stone Occurrence Rates in Astronauts

Changes in urine chemistry, during and post flight, potentially increases the risk of renal stones in astronauts. Although much is known about the effects of space flight on urine chemistry, no inflight incidences of renal stones in US astronauts exists and the question How much does this risk change with space flight? remains difficult to accurately quantify. In this discussion, we tackle this question utilizing a combination of deterministic and probabilistic modeling that implements the physics behind free stone growth and agglomeration, speciation of urine chemistry and published observations of population renal stone incidences to estimate changes in the rate of renal stone occurrence.

physiological response↗

Radar Measurements of Small Debris from HUSIR and HAX

For many years, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has been collecting measurements of the orbital debris environment from the Haystack Ultra-wideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR) and its auxiliary (HAX). These measurements sample the small debris population in low earth orbit (LEO). This paper will provide an overview of recent observations and highlight trends in selected debris populations. Using the NASA size estimation model, objects with a characteristic size of 1 cm and larger observed from HUSIR will be presented. Also, objects with a characteristic size of 2 cm and larger observed from HAX will be presented.

Hamilton J.↗

Airborne Observations of Particle Density in High Ice Water Content (HWC) Cloud Systems

A series of airborne field campaigns has been conducted since 2014 to measure the microphysical properties of high ice-water content (HIWC) clouds in maritime mesoscale convective systems (MCS) and tropical storms. Two of these, the HIWC RADAR-2 campaign (2018) targeting cloud systems in the Gulf of Mexico and Pacific Ocean, and the HIWC-2022 campaign targeting cloud systems in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Atlantic Ocean, have been analyzed to investigate graupel encounters at typical jet aircraft cruise altitudes. In-situ cloud observations from these two campaigns confirmed results from the prior studies, indicating that high concentrations of small ice particles exist in areas of HIWC. However, in the 2022 campaign, 90% of the cloud regions with ice water content (IWC) above 2.0 g/m3 also contained significant amounts of graupel and/or frozen drops. Using a mass-size parameterization that accounts for both small ice and larger high-density particles, we show that the mass distributions in cloud regions above 2.0 g/m3 are often strongly bimodal, with the small particle mode containing roughly half of the collective cloud mass, and the graupel mode containing the other half. In contrast, HIWC cloud passes in a 2018 tropical cyclone contained less relative graupel mass than the MCS cloud systems of 2018 and 2022. We present two different methods of estimating particle mass for mixed populations of small-ice and graupel particles, one using a hybrid two-class approach, and another using a single-class approach that takes both particle size and shape metrics into account. Derived IWC using these methods are compared to bulk IWC measurements collected during the campaigns. We also show the relative occurrence of graupel at various IWC levels and discuss the potential application of these results in evaluating density-aware microphysical schemes in cloud and weather models.

Aircraft Icing↗

The Solid Rocket Motor Slag Population: Results of a Radar-Based Regressive Statistical Evaluation

Solid rocket motor (SRM) slag has been identified as a potential source of man-made orbital debris. The possibility that SRMs (in addition to generating dust particles in the sub-millimeter range) may generate particles up to centimeters in size has caused concern regarding their contribution to the debris environment. Returned surfaces from space do not have sufficient area or exposure time to provide a clear picture of the SRM millimeter and centimeter debris population. Currently, radar observation is probably the only way to collect data showing the debris contribution from SRMs. Such observation is used to sample the debris environment, but it is difficult to obtain accurate orbital elements for the detected debris objects. NASA has developed several models to describe the different orbital debris populations, based on assumed debris production mechanisms to create clouds of debris objects that can be propagated in time. The NASA model, LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris), functions as a time-tested debris model for most debris sources. However, the current LEGEND model does not include contributions from the SRM population. An SRM model has recently been developed by NASA, based on purely theoretical details of SRM production and known SRM launches, but verification with hard data is needed. Because the detections of individual SRM objects cannot be deterministically separated from the total debris observed by radar, the validation of the SRM model can only be done by combining it with the LEGEND breakup model and comparing it with data. By applying observational constraints, the degree of SRM slag contribution to the environment may be estimated. This serves as an observationally sound method from which to calibrate a purely theoretical model into something more realistic. For this study, we use the populations observed by the Haystack radar from 1996 to present. For the SRM debris, we use a historical database of SRM launches, propellant masses, and estimated locations and times of tailoff to produce and propagate the SRM debris clouds. Comparisons with radar data from the ensuing years were made, and the SRM model was altered with respect to size and mass production of slag particles to reflect the populations estimated from the data. The result is a model SRM population that fits within the bounds of the observed environment and estimates of the production and contribution of SRM debris to the environment.

Horstman, Matthew F.↗

Temporal Consistency Between Gross Primary Production and Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence in the Ten Most Populous Megacity Areas over Years

The gross primary production (GPP) of vegetation in urban areas plays an important role in the study of urban ecology. It is difficult however, to accurately estimate GPP in urban areas, mostly due to the complexity of impervious land surfaces, buildings, vegetation, and management. Recently, we used the Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM), climate data, and satellite images to estimate the GPP of terrestrial ecosystems including urban areas. Here, we report VPM-based GPP (GPPvpm) estimates for the world's ten most populous megacities during 2000-2014. The seasonal dynamics of GPPvpm during 2007-2014 in the ten megacities track well that of the solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) data from GOME-2 at 0.5deg x 0.5deg resolution. Annual GPPvpm during 2000-2014 also shows substantial variation among the ten megacities, and year-to-year trends show increases, no change, and decreases. Urban expansion and vegetation collectively impact GPP variations in these megacities. The results of this study demonstrate the potential of a satellite-based vegetation photosynthesis model for diagnostic studies of GPP and the terrestrial carbon cycle in urban areas.

urban↗

Satellites for the study of ocean primary productivity

The use of remote sensing techniques for obtaining estimates of global marine primary productivity is examined. It is shown that remote sensing and multiplatform (ship, aircraft, and satellite) sampling strategies can be used to significantly lower the variance in estimates of phytoplankton abundance and of population growth rates from the values obtained using the C-14 method. It is noted that multiplatform sampling strategies are essential to assess the mean and variance of phytoplankton biomass on a regional or on a global basis. The relative errors associated with shipboard and satellite estimates of phytoplankton biomass and primary productivity, as well as the increased statistical accuracy possible from the utilization of contemporaneous data from both sampling platforms, are examined. It is shown to be possible to follow changes in biomass and the distribution patterns of biomass as a function of time with the use of satellite imagery.

Smith, R. C.↗

Uncertainty in cloud optical depth estimates made from satellite radiance measurements

The uncertainty in optical depths retrieved from satellite measurements of visible wavelength radiance at the top of the atmosphere is quantified. Techniques are briefly reviewed for the estimation of optical depth from measurements of radiance, and it is noted that these estimates are always more uncertain at greater optical depths and larger solar zenith angles. The lack of radiometric calibration for visible wavelength imagers on operational satellites dominates the uncertainty retrievals of optical depth. This is true for both single-pixel retrievals and for statistics calculated from a population of individual retrievals. For individual estimates or small samples, sensor discretization can also be significant, but the sensitivity of the retrieval to the specification of the model atmosphere is less important. The relative uncertainty in calibration affects the accuracy with which optical depth distributions measured by different sensors may be quantitatively compared, while the absolute calibration uncertainty, acting through the nonlinear mapping of radiance to optical depth, limits the degree to which distributions measured by the same sensor may be distinguished.

Pincus, Robert↗

Spectroscopy of candidate young globular clusters in NGC 1275

We present spectra of the brightest member of the population of compact blue objects discovered in the peculiar galaxy NGC 1275 by Holtzman et al. (1992) using Hubble Space Telescope images. These spectra show strong Balmer absorption lines like those observed in A-type stars, as expected if the object is a young globular cluster. The age estimated from the strength of the Balmer lines is about 0.5 Gyr, although ages ranging from 0.1 Gyr to 0.9 Gyr cannot be confidently excluded given current models of stellar populations. If these estimated ages are adopted for the young cluster population of NGC 1275 as a whole, the fading predicted by stellar populations models gives a luminosity function which is consistent with that of the Galactic globular cluster system convolved with the observational selection function for the NGC 1275 system. We also use the equivalent widths of the Mg b and Fe 5270 features to constrain the metallicity of the young cluster. Combining these absorption-line widths with the age estimates from the Balmer lines and stellar population models, we find a metallicity of roughly solar, based on the Mg b index, and somewhat higher for the Fe 5270 index. The radial velocity of the absorption lines of the cluster spectrum is offset from the emission lines of the galaxy spectrum at the same position by - 130 km/s, providing further evidence for the identification of the object as a global cluster and opening up the future possibility of studying the kinematics of young cluster systems. The discovery of objects with the characteristics of young globular clusters in NGC 1275, which shows evidence of a recent interaction or merger, supports the hypothesis that galaxy interactions and mergers are favorable sites for the formation of globular clusters.

Zepf, Stephen E.↗

High Spatial Resolution Thermal Infrared Remote Sensing Data for Analysis of the Atlanta, Georgia, Urban Heat Island Effect and Its Impacts on the Environment

The twenty-first century is the first "urban century" according to the United Nations Development Program. The focus of cities reflects awareness of the growing percentage of the world's population that lives in urban areas. In environmental terms, cities are the original producers of many of the global problems related to waste disposal, air and water pollution, and associated environmental and ecological challenges. Expansion of cities, both in population and areal extent, is a relentless process. In 2000, approximately 3 billion people representing about 40% of the global population, resided in urban areas. Urban population will continue to rise substantially over the next several decades according to UN estimates, and most of this growth will Occur in developing countries. The UN estimates that by 2025, 60% of the world's population will live in urban areas. As a consequence, the number of"megacities" (those cities with populations of 10 million inhabitants or more) will increase by 100 by 2025. Thus, there is a critical need to understand urban areas and what their impacts are on environmental, ecological and hydrologic resources, as well as on the local, regional, and even global climate. One of the more egregious side effects of urbanization is the increase in surface and air temperatures that lead to deterioration in air quality. In the United States, under the more stringent air quality guidelines established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in 1997, nearly 300 counties in 34 states will not meet these new air quality standards for ground level ozone. Mitigation of the urban heat island (UHI) effect is actively being evaluated as a possible way to reduce ground ozone levels in cities and assist states in improving air quality. Foremost in the analysis of how the UHI affects air quality and other environmental factors is the use of remote sensing technology and data to characterize urban land covers in sufficient detail to quantifiably measure the impact of increased urban heating on air quality. The urban landscape impacts surface thermal energy exchanges that determine development of the UHI. This paper will illustrate how we are using high spatial remote sensing data collected over the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area in conjunction with other geographic information, to perform a detailed urban land cover classification and to determine the contribution of these land covers to the urban heat island effect. Also, the spatial arrangement of the land covers and the impact on urban heating from these selected patterns of development are evaluated. Additionally, this paper will show how these data are being used as inputs to improve air quality modeling for Atlanta, including potential benefits from UHI mitigation.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

On the contribution of normal galaxies to the diffuse X-ray background

A calculation has been made of the contribution of normal galaxies to the diffuse X-ray background, based on a model of the X-ray luminosity evolution of galaxies in which two populations of galactic X-ray sources are distinguished. With plausible estimates of the behavior of the galactic X-ray source populations with time, normal galaxies provide between 1.5% and 9% of the X-ray background between 2 and 10 keV. Unless massive halos exist around galaxies and their formation is accompanied by the production of early-type Population I X-ray binaries, a firm upper limit of about 25% can be set on the contribution of normal galaxies to the X-ray background between 2 and 10 keV.

Van Paradijs, J.↗

Calculation of Coupled Vibroacoustics Response Estimates from a Library of Available Uncoupled Transfer Function Sets

The design and theoretical basis of a new database tool that quickly generates vibroacoustic response estimates using a library of transfer functions (TFs) is discussed. During the early stages of a launch vehicle development program, these response estimates can be used to provide vibration environment specification to hardware vendors. The tool accesses TFs from a database, combines the TFs, and multiplies these by input excitations to estimate vibration responses. The database is populated with two sets of uncoupled TFs; the first set representing vibration response of a bare panel, designated as H(sup s), and the second set representing the response of the free-free component equipment by itself, designated as H(sup c). For a particular configuration undergoing analysis, the appropriate H(sup s) and H(sup c) are selected and coupled to generate an integrated TF, designated as H(sup s +c). This integrated TF is then used with the appropriate input excitations to estimate vibration responses. This simple yet powerful tool enables a user to estimate vibration responses without directly using finite element models, so long as suitable H(sup s) and H(sup c) sets are defined in the database libraries. The paper discusses the preparation of the database tool and provides the assumptions and methodologies necessary to combine H(sup s) and H(sup c) sets into an integrated H(sup s + c). An experimental validation of the approach is also presented.

Smith, Andrew↗

A GALAH View of the Chemical Homogeneity and Ages of Stellar Strings Identified in Gaia

The advent of Gaia has led to the discovery of nearly 300 elongated stellar associations (called ‘strings’) spanning hundreds of parsecs in length and mere tens of parsecs in width. These newfound populations present an excellent laboratory for studying the assembly process of the Milky Way thin disc. In this work, we use data from GALAH DR3 to investigate the chemical distributions and ages of 18 newfound stellar populations, 10 of which are strings and 8 of which are compact in morphology. We estimate the intrinsic abundance dispersions in [X/H] of each population and compare them with those of both their local fields and the open cluster (OC) M 67. We find that all but one of these groups are more chemically homogeneous than their local fields. Furthermore, half of the strings, namely Theias 139, 169, 216, 303, and 309, have intrinsic [X/H] dispersions that range between 0.01 and 0.07 dex in most elements, equivalent to those of many OCs. These results provide important new observational constraints on star formation and the chemical homogeneity of the local interstellar medium (ISM). We investigate each population’s Li and chemical clock abundances(e.g. [Sc/Ba], [Ca/Ba], [Ti/Ba], and [Mg/Y]) and find that the ages suggested by chemistry generally support the isochronal ages in all but six structures. This work highlights the unique advantages that chemistry holds in the study of kinematically related stellar groups.

Stars: abundances↗

Kinematic and Energetic Properties of the 2012 March 12 Polar Coronal Mass Ejection

We report on the energetics of the 2012 March 12 polar coronal mass ejection (CME) originating from a southern latitude of approximately 60deg. The polar CME is similar to low-latitude (LL) CMEs in almost all respects: three-part morphology; post-eruption arcade (PEA), CME, and filament kinematics; CME mass and kinetic energy; and the relative thermal energy content of the PEA. From polarized brightness images, we estimate the CME mass, which is close to the average mass of LL CMEs. The CME kinetic energy (3.3 × 10(sup 30) erg) is also typical of the general population of CMEs. From photospheric magnetograms, we estimate the free energy (1.8 × 10(sup 31) erg) in the polar crown source region, which we find is sufficient to power the CME and the PEA. About 19% of the free energy went into the CME kinetic energy. We compute the thermal energy content of the PEA (2.3 × 10(sup 29) erg) and find it to be a small fraction (6.8%) of the CME kinetic energy. This fraction is remarkably similar to that in active region CMEs associated with major flares. We also show that the 2012 March 12 is one among scores of polar CMEs observed during the maximum phase of cycle 24. The cycle 24 polar crown prominence eruptions have the same rate of association with CMEs as those from LLs. This investigation supports the view that all CMEs are magnetically propelled from closed field regions, irrespective of their location on the Sun (polar crown filament regions, quiescent filament regions, or active regions).

filaments↗

Earth-crossing asteroids - Orbital classes, collision rates with earth, and origin

Asteroids that can intersect the orbit of the earth are discussed, which include Aten asteroids (semimajor axis (a) less than 1 AU, aphelion greater than 0.983 AU), Apollo asteroids (a greater than 1 AU, perihelion less than 1.017 AU), and Amor asteroids (perihelion distance between 1.017 and 1.3 AU). The principal sources of earth-crossing asteroids appear to be extinct comet nuclei and collision fragments from regions in the main asteroid belt. The total population of earth-crossers is estimated at 13,000, of which approximately 8% are Atens, 50% are Apollos, and 40% are Amors,and the present collision rate of such asteroids with the earth is estimated at about 3.5 objects, to absolute magnitude 18, per million years.

Shoemaker, E. M.↗

The New NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM2000

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office at Johnson Space Center has developed a new computer-based orbital debris engineering model, ORDEM2000, which describes the orbital debris environment in the low Earth orbit region between 200 and 2000 km altitude. The model is appropriate for those engineering solutions requiring knowledge and estimates of the orbital debris environment (debris spatial density, flux, etc.). ORDEM2000 can also be used as a benchmark for ground-based debris measurements and observations. We incorporated a large set of observational data, covering the object size range from 10 mm to 10 m, into the ORDEM2000 debris database, utilizing a maximum likelihood estimator to convert observations into debris population probability distribution functions. These functions then form the basis of debris populations. We developed a finite element model to process the debris populations to form the debris environment. A more capable input and output structure and a user-friendly graphical user interface are also implemented in the model. ORDEM2000 has been subjected to a significant verification and validation effort. This document describes ORDEM2000, which supersedes the previous model, ORDEM96. The availability of new sensor and in situ data, as well as new analytical techniques, has enabled the construction of this new model. Section 1 describes the general requirements and scope of an engineering model. Data analyses and the theoretical formulation of the model are described in Sections 2 and 3. Section 4 describes the verification and validation effort and the sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. Finally, Section 5 describes the graphical user interface, software installation, and test cases for the user.

Liou, Jer-Chyi↗

Is Jupiter's ionosphere a significant plasma source for its magnetosphere?

A semikinetic model was used to study the steady state, collisionless, polar wind outflow from the Jovian polar caps. H(+)-escape fluxes and energies were calculated for a range of conditions, including several values of the ambient electron temperature, different hot electron populations, and both with and without the effects of the centrifugal force. The calculations indicate that if hot electron populations exist over the Jovian polar caps, as they do on earth, polar wind escape fluxes of the order of 10 to the 8th per sq cm s are possible. When integrated over the polar cap area, escape fluxes of this order of magnitude imply an ionospheric source strength of 2 x 10 to the 28th ions/s, which is comparable to the present estimate of the total magnetospheric plasma source population. Therefore, the ionosphere may play an important role in populating the Jovian magnetosphere, specifically the hidden, low energy, light ion component of the population.

Nagy, A. F.↗

Menstrual Cycle Control in Female Astronauts and the Associated Risk of Venous Thromboembolism

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a common and serious condition affecting approximately 1‐2 per 1000 people in the USA every year. There have been no documented case reports of VTE in female astronauts during spaceflight in the published literature. Some female astronauts use hormonal contraception to control their menstrual cycles and it is currently unknown how this affects their risk of VTE. Current terrestrial risk prediction models do not account for the spaceflight environment and the physiological changes associated with it. We therefore aim to estimate a specific risk score for female astronauts who are taking hormonal contraception for menstrual cycle control, to deduce whether they are at an elevated risk of VTE. A systematic review of the literature was conducted in order to identify and quantify known terrestrial risk factors for VTE. Studies involving analogues for the female astronaut population were also reviewed, for example, military personnel who use the oral contraceptive pill for menstrual suppression. Well known terrestrial risk factors, for example, obesity or smoking would not be applicable to our study population as these candidates would have been excluded during astronaut selection processes. Other risk factors for VTE include hormonal therapy, lower limb paralysis, physical inactivity, hyperhomocysteinemia, low methylfolate levels and minor injuries, all of which potentially apply to crew members LSAH data will be assessed to identify which of these risk factors are applicable to our astronaut population. Using known terrestrial risk data, an overall estimated risk of VTE for female astronauts using menstrual cycle control methods will therefore be calculated. We predict this will be higher than the general population but not significantly higher requiring thromboprophylaxis. This study attempts to delineate what is assumed to be true of our astronaut population, for example, they are known to be a healthy fit cohort of individuals, and combine physiological impacts of spaceflight (cephalic fluid shifts, lower limb inactivity) to understand specific risks associated with hormonal contraception.

Jain, Varsha↗