Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Population estimates”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1974

Urban and regional land use analysis: CARETS and Census Cities experiment package

The author has identified the following significant results. A number of likely applications and follow-on analyses are suggested by the census cities evaluation of ERTS-1 and Skylab data. Some of these applications are: (1) estimate water use requirements; (2) define urban expansion; (3) document the pattern of residential development and assess quality of residential environment: (4) project future population densities, and estimate changes in population distribution between censuses; (5) assess environmental impact resulting from gradual as well as catastrophic changes.

Alexander, R.↗
NASA NTRS1977

An estimate of field size distributions for selected sites in the major grain producing countries

The field size distributions for the major grain producing countries of the World were estimated. LANDSAT-1 and 2 images were evaluated for two areas each in the United States, People's Republic of China, and the USSR. One scene each was evaluated for France, Canada, and India. Grid sampling was done for representative sub-samples of each image, measuring the long and short axes of each field; area was then calculated. Each of the resulting data sets was computer analyzed for their frequency distributions. Nearly all frequency distributions were highly peaked and skewed (shifted) towards small values, approaching that of either a Poisson or log-normal distribution. The data were normalized by a log transformation, creating a Gaussian distribution which has moments readily interpretable and useful for estimating the total population of fields. Resultant predictors of the field size estimates are discussed.

Podwysocki, M. H.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating reaction parameters in mechanism-enabled population balance models of nanoparticle size distributions: A Bayesian inverse problem approach

In order to quantitatively predict nano- as well as other particle-size distributions, one needs to have both a mathematical model and estimates of the parameters that appear in these models. Here, we show how one can use Bayesian inversion to obtain statistical estimates for the parameters that appear in recently derived mechanism-enabled population balance models (ME-PBM) of nanoparticle growth. The Bayesian approach addresses the question of “how well do we know our parameters, along with their uncertainties?.” The results reveal that Bayesian inversion statistical analysis on an example, prototype $\mathrm{lr(0)_n}$ nanoparticle formation system allows one to estimate not just the most likely rate constants and other parameter values, but also their SDs, confidence intervals, and other statistical information. Moreover, knowing the reliability of the mechanistic model's parameters in turn helps inform one about the reliability of the proposed mechanism, as well as the reliability of its predictions. Importantly, the paper can also be seen as a tutorial with the additional goal of achieving a “Gold Standard” Bayesian inversion ME-PBM benchmark that others can use as a control to check their own use of this methodology for other systems of interest throughout nature. Overall, the results provide strong support for the hypothesis that there is substantial value in using a Bayesian inversion methodology for parameter estimation in particle formation systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Population-level incidence of human papillomavirus–positive oropharyngeal, cervical, and anal cancers, by smoking status

Abstract We estimated the population-level incidence of human papillomavirus (HPV)–positive oropharyngeal, cervical, and anal cancers by smoking status. We combined HPV DNA genotyping data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Cancer Registry Sentinel Surveillance System with data from the Kentucky Cancer Registry and Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System across smoking status. During 2004-2005 and 2014-2015 in Kentucky, most cases of oropharyngeal (63.3%), anal (59.7%), and cervical (54.9%) cancer were among individuals who ever smoked. The population-level incidence rate was higher among individuals who ever smoked than among those who never smoked for HPV-positive oropharyngeal (7.8 vs 2.1; adjusted incidence rate ratio = 2.6), cervical (13.7 vs 6.8; adjusted incidence rate ratio = 2.0), and anal (3.9 vs 1.6; adjusted incidence rate ratio = 2.5) cancers. These findings indicate that smoking is associated with increased risk of HPV-positive oropharyngeal, cervical, and anal cancers, and the population-level burden of these cancers is higher among individuals who ever smoked.

Oncology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stellar population analysis of MaNGA early-type galaxies: IMF dependence and systematic effects

We study systematics associated with estimating simple stellar population (SSP) parameters – age, metallicity [M/H], α-enhancement [α/Fe], and initial mass function (IMF) shape – and associated M * /L gradients, of elliptical slow rotators (E-SRs), fast rotators (E-FRs), and S0s from stacked spectra of galaxies in the MaNGA survey. These systematics arise from (i) how one normalizes the spectra when stacking; (ii) having to subtract emission before estimating absorption line strengths; (iii) the decision to fit the whole spectrum or just a few absorption lines; (iv) SSP model differences (e.g. isochrones, enrichment, IMF). The MILES+Padova SSP models, fit to the H β , 〈Fe〉, TiO 2SDSS , and [MgFe] Lick indices in the stacks, indicate that out to the half-light radius R e : (a) ages are younger and [α/Fe] values are lower in the central regions but the opposite is true of [M/H]; (b) the IMF is more bottom-heavy in the center, but is close to Kroupa beyond about R e /2; (c) this makes M * /L about 2 × larger in the central regions than beyond R e /2. While the models of Conroy et al. return similar [M/H] and [α/Fe] profiles, the age and (hence) M * /L profiles can differ significantly even for solar abundances and a Kroupa IMF; different responses to non-solar abundances and IMF parametrization further compound these differences. There are clear (model independent) differences between E-SRs, E-FRs, and S0s: younger ages and less enhanced [α/Fe] values suggest that E-FRs and S0s are not SSPs, but relaxing this assumption is unlikely to change their inferred M * /L gradients significantly.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Geometric Tail Approximation for Reliability and Survivability

A common problem in developing high-reliability systems is estimating the reliability for a population of components that cannot be 100% tested. The radiation survivability of a population of components is often estimated by testing a very small sample to some multiple of the required specification level, known as an overtest. Given a successful test with a sufficient overtest margin, the population of components is assumed to have the required survivability or radiation reliability. However, no mathematical justification for such claims has been crafted without making aggressive assumptions regarding the statistics of the unknown distribution. Here we illustrate a new approach that leverages geometric bounding arguments founded on relatively modest distribution assumptions to produce conservative estimates of component reliability.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2011

Sensitivity Analysis of Median Lifetime on Radiation Risks Estimates for Cancer and Circulatory Disease amongst Never-Smokers

Radiation risks are estimated in a competing risk formalism where age or time after exposure estimates of increased risks for cancer and circulatory diseases are folded with a probability to survive to a given age. The survival function, also called the life-table, changes with calendar year, gender, smoking status and other demographic variables. An outstanding problem in risk estimation is the method of risk transfer between exposed populations and a second population where risks are to be estimated. Approaches used to transfer risks are based on: 1) Multiplicative risk transfer models -proportional to background disease rates. 2) Additive risk transfer model -risks independent of background rates. In addition, a Mixture model is often considered where the multiplicative and additive transfer assumptions are given weighted contributions. We studied the influence of the survival probability on the risk of exposure induced cancer and circulatory disease morbidity and mortality in the Multiplicative transfer model and the Mixture model. Risks for never-smokers (NS) compared to the average U.S. population are estimated to be reduced between 30% and 60% dependent on model assumptions. Lung cancer is the major contributor to the reduction for NS, with additional contributions from circulatory diseases and cancers of the stomach, liver, bladder, oral cavity, esophagus, colon, a portion of the solid cancer remainder, and leukemia. Greater improvements in risk estimates for NS s are possible, and would be dependent on improved understanding of risk transfer models, and elucidating the role of space radiation on the various stages of disease formation (e.g. initiation, promotion, and progression).

Chappell, Lori J.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Bio-medical electrical disconnects

Improvements in medical care during the last two decades have resulted in the survival of an ever-increasing group of patients with severe neuro-muscular disabilities who otherwise would have succumbed to their diseases or injuries. This has created a sizeable population of severely paralyzed persons totally dependent upon society for care. It has been estimated that this population may grow beyond 5,000,000 persons by 1980. A rather fortunate confluence of complementing technologies and surgical techniques offer promise of solving this growing socially significant problem.

Parsons, W. E.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Extrapolating Contaminant Effects from Individuals to Populations: A Case Study on Nanoparticle Toxicity to Daphnia Fed Environmentally Relevant Food Levels

Ecological risk assessment (ERA) is charged with assessing the likelihood a chemical will have adverse environmental or ecological effects. When assessing the risk of a potential contaminant to biological organisms, ecologists are most concerned with the sustainability of populations of organisms, rather than protecting every individual. However, ERA most commonly relies on data on the effect of a potential contaminant on individuals because these experiments are more feasible than costly population-level exposures. In this work, we address the challenge of extrapolating these individual-level results to predict population-level effects. Previous per-capita population growth rate estimates calculated from individual-level exposures of Daphnia pulicaria to silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) at different food rations predict a critical daily food requirement for daphnid populations exposed to 200 μg/L AgNPs to avoid extinction. To test this, we exposed daphnid populations to the same AgNP concentration at three different food inputs, with the lowest ration close to the extinction threshold predicted from data on individuals. The two populations with the higher food inputs persisted, and the population with the lowest food input went extinct after 50 days but did persist through two generations. Further, we demonstrate that we can extrapolate between these levels of biological organization by parameterizing an individual-level biomass model with data on individuals’ response to AgNPs and using these parameters to predict the outcome for control and AgNP-exposed populations. Key to successful extrapolation is careful modeling of temporal changes in resource density, driven by both the experimental protocols and feedback from the consumer. The implication for ecotoxicology is that estimates of extinction thresholds based on studies of individuals may be reliable predictors of population outcomes, but only with careful treatment of resource dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1984

The planet crossing asteroid survey: Progress in the analysis of populations and terrestrial-planet cratering rates

The Planet-Crossing Asteroid Survey (PCAS) is making steady progress toward the accumulation of the data required to make improved estimates of the populations and cratering rates which can be compared with the existing record of impact events. The PCAS is the chief source of new objects on which to base these calculations over the past decade, and is an integral part of the continuing refinement of the estimates used in planetological applications. An adjunct effort to determine albedo statistics from photometry of UCAS plates is being pursued as well, to better define the magnitude frequency distributions of asteroids. This will improve the quality of the population and collision probability calculations. The survey effort continues to discover new asteroids whose orbital characteristics may reveal the origin and evolution mechanisms reponsible for the transport of the planet-crossing asteroids to the inner solar system.

Helin, E. F.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dose estimates and their uncertainties for use in epidemiological studies of radiation-exposed populations in the Russian Southern Urals

Many residents of the Russian Southern Urals were exposed to radioactive environmental pollution created by the operations of the Mayak Production Association in the mid- 20 th century. There were two major releases: the discharge of about 1x10 17 Bq of liquid waste into the Techa River between 1949 and 1959; and the atmospheric release of 7.4 * 10 16 Bq as a result an explosion in the radioactive waste-storage facility in 1957. The releases into the Techa River resulted in the exposure of more than 30,000 people who lived in riverside villages between 1950 and 1961. The 1957 accident contaminated a larger area with the highest exposure levels in an area that is called the East Urals Radioactive Trace (EURT). Current epidemiologic studies of the exposed populations are based on dose estimates obtained using a Monte-Carlo dosimetry system (TRDS-2016MC) that provides multiple realizations of the annual doses for each cohort member. These dose realizations provide a central estimate of the individual dose and information on the uncertainty of these dose estimates. In addition, the correlation of individual annual doses over realizations provides important information on shared uncertainties that can be used to assess the impact of shared dose uncertainties on risk estimate uncertainty.This paper considers dose uncertainties in the TRDS-2016MC. Individual doses from external and internal radiation sources were reconstructed for 48,036 people based on environmental contamination patterns, residential histories, individual 90 Sr body-burden measurements and dietary intakes. Dietary intake of 90 Sr resulted in doses accumulated in active bone marrow (or simply, marrow) that were an order of magnitude greater than those in soft tissues. About 84% of the marrow dose and 50% of the stomach dose was associated with internal exposures. The lognormal distribution is well-fitted to the individual dose realizations, which, therefore, could be expressed and easily operated in terms of geometric mean (GM) and geometric standard deviation (GSD). Cohort average GM for marrow and stomach cumulative doses are 0.21 and 0.03 Gy, respectively. Cohort average dose uncertainties in terms of GSD are as follows: for marrow it is 2.93 (90%CI: 2.02–4.34); for stomach and the other non-calcified tissues it is 2.32 (90% CI: 1.78–2.9).

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Genetic diversity loss in the Anthropocene

Anthropogenic habitat loss and climate change are reducing species’ geographic ranges, increasing extinction risk and losses of species’ genetic diversity. Although preserving genetic diversity is key to maintaining species’ adaptability, we lack predictive tools and global estimates of genetic diversity loss across ecosystems. We introduce a mathematical framework that bridges biodiversity theory and population genetics to understand the loss of naturally occurring DNA mutations with decreasing habitat. By analyzing genomic variation of 10,095 georeferenced individuals from 20 plant and animal species, we show that genome-wide diversity follows a mutations-area relationship power law with geographic area, which can predict genetic diversity loss from local population extinctions. We estimate that more than 10% of genetic diversity may already be lost for many threatened and nonthreatened species, surpassing the United Nations’ post-2020 targets for genetic preservation.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of a parasite-density based pooled targeted amplicon deep sequencing (TADS) method for molecular surveillance of Plasmodium falciparum drug resistance genes in Haiti

Sequencing large numbers of individual samples is often needed for countrywide antimalarial drug resistance surveillance. Pooling DNA from several individual samples is an alternative cost and time saving approach for providing allele frequency (AF) estimates at a population level. Using 100 individual patient DNA samples of dried blood spots from a 2017 nationwide drug resistance surveillance study in Haiti, we compared codon coverage of drug resistance-conferring mutations in four Plasmodium falciparum genes ( crt , dhps , dhfr , and mdr1 ), for the same deep sequenced samples run individually and pooled. Samples with similar real-time PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values (+/- 1.0 Ct value) were combined with ten samples per pool. The sequencing success for samples in pools were higher at a lower parasite density than the individual samples sequence method. The median codon coverage for drug resistance-associated mutations in all four genes were greater than 3-fold higher in the pooled samples than in individual samples. The overall codon coverage distribution for pooled samples was wider than the individual samples. The sample pools with < 40 parasites/μL blood showed more discordance in AF calls for dhfr and mdr1 between the individual and pooled samples. This discordance in AF estimation may be due to low amounts of parasite DNA, which could lead to variable PCR amplification efficiencies. Grouping samples with an estimated ≥ 40 parasites/μL blood prior to pooling and deep sequencing yielded the expected population level AF. Pooling DNA samples based on estimates of > 40 parasites/μL prior to deep sequencing can be used for rapid genotyping of a large number of samples for these four genes and possibly other drug resistant markers in population-based studies. As Haiti is a low malaria transmission country with very few mixed infections and continued chloroquine sensitivity, the pooled sequencing approach can be used for routine national molecular surveillance of resistant parasites.

Louha, Swarnali (ORCID:0000000207778507)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Regional Populations – 2020 Census: Richland Campus and Sequim Campus

The U.S. Department of Energy conducts radiological operations in south-central (Richland) and northwestern (Sequim) Washington State. Collective dose estimates to regional populations must be performed to provide a measure of the impact from site radiological releases. Results of the U.S. 2020 Census and, for the Sequim location only, the Canada 2021 Census, were used to determine counts and distributions for the residential population located within 50 miles (80 kilometers) of the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland Campus and the Sequim Campus. Since the 2010 Census, total regional populations increased 25–40 percent. This revision updates and expands the data presented in the prior report by the addition of PNNL-Richland Campus population distribution information.

2020 census↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigating the ecological fallacy through sampling distributions constructed from finite populations

Correlation coefficients and linear regression values computed from group averages can differ from correlation coefficients and linear regression values computed using individual scores. This observation known as the ecological fallacy often assumes that all the individual scores are available from a population. In many situations, one must use a sample from the larger population. In such cases, the computed correlation coefficient and linear regression values will depend on the sample that is chosen and the underlying sampling distribution. The sampling distribution of correlation coefficients and linear regression values for group averages will be identical to the sampling distribution for individuals for normally distributed variables for random samples drawn from infinitely large continuous distributions. However, data that is acquired in practice is often acquired when sampling without replacement from a finite population. Our objective is to demonstrate through Monte Carlo simulations that the sampling distributions for correlation and linear regression will also be similar for individuals and group averages when sampling without replacement from normally distributed variables. These simulations suggest that when a random sample from a population is selected, the correlation coefficients and linear regression values computed from individual scores will not be more accurate in estimating the entire population values compared to samples when group averages are used as long as the sample size is the same.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Invasion and rapid adaptation of guppies ( Poecilia reticulata ) across the Hawaiian Archipelago

How much does natural selection, as opposed to genetic drift, admixture, and gene flow, contribute to the evolution of invasive species following introduction to a new environment? Here we assess how evolution can shape biological invasions by examining population genomic variation in non-native guppies (Poecilia reticulata) introduced to the Hawaiian Islands approximately a century ago. By examining 18 invasive populations from four Hawaiian islands and four populations from the native range in northern South America, we reconstructed the history of introductions and evaluated population structure as well as the extent of ongoing gene flow across watersheds and among islands. Patterns of differentiation indicate that guppies have developed significant population structure, with little natural or human-mediated gene flow having occurred among populations following introduction. Demographic modeling and admixture graph analyses together suggest that guppies were initially introduced to O‘ahu and Maui and then translocated to Hawai‘i and Kaua‘i. We detected evidence for only one introduction event from the native range, implying that any adaptive evolution in introduced populations likely utilized the genetic variation present in the founding population. Environmental association tests accounting for population structure identified loci exhibiting signatures of adaptive variation related to predators and landscape characteristics but not nutrient regimes. When paired with high estimates of effective population sizes and detectable population structure, the presence of environment-associated loci supports the role of natural selection in shaping contemporary evolution of Hawaiian guppy populations. Our findings indicate that local adaptation may engender invasion success, particularly in species with life histories that facilitate rapid evolution. Finally, evidence of low gene flow between populations suggests that removal could be an effective approach to control invasive guppies across the Hawaiian archipelago.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Determining star formation rates in AGN hosts from strong optical emission lines

ABSTRACT The influence of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) on star formation within their host galaxies remains a topic of intense debate. One of the primary challenges in quantifying the star formation rate (SFR) within AGN hosts arises from the prevalent assumption in most methodologies, which attribute gas excitation to young stars alone. However, this assumption does not consider the contribution of the AGN to the ionization of the gas in their environment. To address this issue, we evaluate the use of strong optical emission lines to obtain the SFR surface density ($\Sigma {{\rm SFR_{AGN}}}$) in regions predominantly ionized by an AGN, using a sample of 293 AGN hosts from the MaNGA survey, with SFR measurements available through stellar population fitting. We propose calibrations involving the H$\alpha$ and [O iii]$\lambda$5007 emission lines, which can be used to determine $\Sigma {{\rm SFR_{AGN}}}$, resulting in values consistent with those estimated through stellar population fitting.

de Mellos, Maitê S. Z. (ORCID:0009000821841403)↗
NASA NTRS1989

Synchrotron radiation from Neptune - Neptune's magnetic field and electron population

On the basis of radio measurements of Neptune at 20 cm, one can infer the presence of about 0.4 mJy synchrotron radiation. By assuming a dipole-like magnetic field, with the energetic electrons confined to the magnetic equator, Neptune's magnetic dipole moment is estimated. Its electron population should be between that in Uranus' and Jupiter's magnetospheres. If the electrons are injected by the solar wind, local acceleration processes in the magnetosphere are required to energize the particles, because adiabatic diffusion alone is not sufficient.

De Pater, Imke↗