Future western U.S. building electricity consumption in response to climate and population drivers: A comparative study of the impact of model structure
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32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
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Describing patterns of familial cancer risk in subfertile men using population pedigree data
STUDY QUESTION Can we simultaneously assess risk for multiple cancers to identify familial multicancer patterns in families of azoospermic and severely oligozoospermic men? SUMMARY ANSWER Here, distinct familial cancer patterns were observed in the azoospermia and severe oligozoospermia cohorts, suggesting heterogeneity in familial cancer risk by both type of subfertility and within subfertility type. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY Subfertile men and their relatives show increased risk for certain cancers including testicular, thyroid, and pediatric. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION A retrospective cohort of subfertile men (N = 786) was identified and matched to fertile population controls (N = 5674). Family members out to third-degree relatives were identified for both subfertile men and fertile population controls (N = 337 754). The study period was 1966–2017. Individuals were censored at death or loss to follow-up, loss to follow-up occurred if they left Utah during the study period. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS Azoospermic (0 × 10 6 /mL) and severely oligozoospermic (<1.5 × 10 6 /mL) men were identified in the Subfertility Health and Assisted Reproduction and the Environment cohort (SHARE). Subfertile men were age- and sex-matched 5:1 to fertile population controls and family members out to third-degree relatives were identified using the Utah Population Database (UPDB). Cancer diagnoses were identified through the Utah Cancer Registry. Families containing ≥10 members with ≥1 year of follow-up 1966–2017 were included (azoospermic: N = 426 families, 21 361 individuals; oligozoospermic: N = 360 families, 18 818 individuals). Unsupervised clustering based on standardized incidence ratios for 34 cancer phenotypes in the families was used to identify familial multicancer patterns; azoospermia and severe oligospermia families were assessed separately. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE Compared to control families, significant increases in cancer risks were observed in the azoospermia cohort for five cancer types: bone and joint cancers hazard ratio (HR) = 2.56 (95% CI = 1.48–4.42), soft tissue cancers HR = 1.56 (95% CI = 1.01–2.39), uterine cancers HR = 1.27 (95% CI = 1.03–1.56), Hodgkin lymphomas HR = 1.60 (95% CI = 1.07–2.39), and thyroid cancer HR = 1.54 (95% CI = 1.21–1.97). Among severe oligozoospermia families, increased risk was seen for three cancer types: colon cancer HR = 1.16 (95% CI = 1.01–1.32), bone and joint cancers HR = 2.43 (95% CI = 1.30–4.54), and testis cancer HR = 2.34 (95% CI = 1.60–3.42) along with a significant decrease in esophageal cancer risk HR = 0.39 (95% CI = 0.16–0.97). Thirteen clusters of familial multicancer patterns were identified in families of azoospermic men, 66% of families in the azoospermia cohort showed population-level cancer risks, however, the remaining 12 clusters showed elevated risk for 2-7 cancer types. Several of the clusters with elevated cancer risks also showed increased odds of cancer diagnoses at young ages with six clusters showing increased odds of adolescent and young adult (AYA) diagnosis [odds ratio (OR) = 1.96–2.88] and two clusters showing increased odds of pediatric cancer diagnosis (OR = 3.64–12.63). Within the severe oligozoospermia cohort, 12 distinct familial multicancer clusters were identified. All 12 clusters showed elevated risk for 1–3 cancer types. An increase in odds of cancer diagnoses at young ages was also seen in five of the severe oligozoospermia familial multicancer clusters, three clusters showed increased odds of AYA diagnosis (OR = 2.19–2.78) with an additional two clusters showing increased odds of a pediatric diagnosis (OR = 3.84–9.32). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION Although this study has many strengths, including population data for family structure, cancer diagnoses and subfertility, there are limitations. First, semen measures are not available for the sample of fertile men. Second, there is no information on medical comorbidities or lifestyle risk factors such as smoking status, BMI, or environmental exposures. Third, all of the subfertile men included in this study were seen at a fertility clinic for evaluation. These men were therefore a subset of the overall population experiencing fertility problems and likely represent those with the socioeconomic means for evaluation by a physician. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS This analysis leveraged unique population-level data resources, SHARE and the UPDB, to describe novel multicancer clusters among the families of azoospermic and severely oligozoospermic men. Distinct overall multicancer risk and familial multicancer patterns were observed in the azoospermia and severe oligozoospermia cohorts, suggesting heterogeneity in cancer risk by type of subfertility and within subfertility type. Describing families with similar cancer risk patterns provides a new avenue to increase homogeneity for focused gene discovery and environmental risk factor studies. Such discoveries will lead to more accurate risk predictions and improved counseling for patients and their families. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) This work was funded by GEMS: Genomic approach to connecting Elevated germline Mutation rates with male infertility and Somatic health (Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD): R01 HD106112). The authors have no conflicts of interest relevant to this work.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Testing and signal identification for two-sample high-dimensional covariances via multi-level thresholding
The paper considers testing and signal identification for covariance matrices from two populations of marginally sub-Gaussian distributed. A multi-level thresholding procedure is proposed for testing the equality of two high-dimensional covariance matrices, which is designed to detect sparse and faint differences between the covariances. A novel -statistic composition is developed to establish the asymptotic distribution of the thresholding statistics in conjunction with the matrix blocking and the coupling techniques. It is shown that the proposed test is more powerful than the existing tests in detecting sparse and weak signals in covariances. Multiple testing procedures are constructed to discover different covariances and the sub-groups of variables with different covariance structures between the two populations. The proposed procedures are based on the multi-level thresholding test, which are able to control the false discovery proportion () with high power. Simulation experiments and a case study on the returns of the S&P 500 stocks before and after the COVID-19 pandemic are conducted to demonstrate and compare the utilities of the proposed methods.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Population Subdivision in the Gopher Frog (Rana capito) across the Fragmented Longleaf Pine-Wiregrass Savanna of the Southeastern USA
Delineating genetically distinct population segments of threatened species and quantifying population connectivity are important steps in developing effective conservation and management strategies aimed at preventing extinction. The gopher frog (Rana capito) is a xeric-adapted, pond-breeding species endemic to the Gulf and Atlantic coastal plains of the southeastern United States. This species has experienced extensive habitat loss and fragmentation in the formerly widespread longleaf pine-wiregrass savanna where it lives, resulting in individual abundance declines and population extinctions throughout its range. We used individual-based clustering methods along with Bayesian inference of historical migration based on almost 1500 multilocus microsatellite genotypes to examine genetic structure in this taxon. Clustering analyses identified panhandle and peninsular populations in Florida as distinct genetic clusters separated by the Aucilla River, consistent with the division between the Coastal Plain and peninsular mitochondrial lineages, respectively. Analysis of historical migration indicated an east–west population divergence event followed by immigration to the east. Together, our results indicate that the genetically distinct Coastal Plain and peninsular Florida lineages should be considered separately for conservation and management purposes.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Phase Identification in Synchrotron X-ray Diffraction Patterns of Ti–6Al–4V Using Computer Vision and Deep Learning
X-ray diffraction patterns contain information about the atomistic structure and microstructure (defect population) of materials, extracting detailed information from diffraction patterns is complex, demanding and relies on prior knowledge. Here, we hypothesize that deep-learning techniques can help to perform an effective and accurate analysis with high throughput rates. To demonstrate this concept, we applied a novel deep learning framework to determine the evolution of the β-phase volume fraction in a Ti–6Al–4V alloy during heat-treatment from video sequences of 2D diffraction patterns recorded in transmission and with highly monochromatic radiation in a synchrotron beamline. In particular, we studied the impact of network design on prediction reliability and computational performance. Networks of different architectures were trained using 3008 experimental 2D patterns. A well-tuned model was found to reproduce the phase fractions of another experimental data set, consisting of 1100 diffraction patterns, with a mean-square error as small as 2.6 x 10 -4 . The average prediction error of β-phase volume fraction was within 1.6 x 10 -2 (in each diffraction pattern) of the values obtained by conventional methods. Our work demonstrates that convolutional neural networks can evaluate high energy X-ray diffraction patterns with a remarkable level of reliability. Furthermore, it demonstrates the significance of network design on the reliability of predictions and computational performance. The most complex models do not necessarily result in highest accuracy and may even fail to learn from the data.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Lessons from intramolecular singlet fission with covalently bound chromophores
Molecular dimers, oligomers, and polymers are versatile components in photophysical and optoelectronic architectures that could impact a large variety of applications. We present a perspective on such systems in the field of singlet fission, which effectively multiplies excitons and produces a unique excited state species, the triplet pair. The choice of chromophore and the nature of the attachment between units, both geometrical and chemical, play a defining role in the dynamical scheme that evolves upon photoexcitation. Specific final outcomes (e.g., separated and uncorrelated triplet pairs) are being sought through rational design of covalently bound chromophore architectures built with guidance from recent fundamental studies that correlate structure with excited state population flow kinetics.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Bar rejuvenation in S0 galaxies?
ABSTRACT Based on the colour measurements from a multiband, multicomponent 2D decompositions of S0 and spiral galaxies using SDSS images, we found that bars are bluer in S0 galaxies compared to the spiral galaxies. Most of the S0s in our sample have stellar masses ∼L* galaxies. The environment might have played an important role as most of the S0s with bluer bars are in the intermediate-density environment. The possibility of minor mergers and tidal interactions that occurs frequently in the intermediate-density environment might have caused either a bar to form and/or induce star formation in the barred region of S0 galaxies. The underlying discs show the usual behaviour being redder in S0s compared to spiral galaxies while the bulges are red and old for both S0 and spiral galaxies. The finding of bluer bars in S0 galaxies is a puzzling issue and poses an interesting question at numerical and theoretical studies most of which shows that the bars are long-lived structures with old stellar populations.
Barway, Sudhanshu↗
Novel candidate genes for lignin structure identified through genome-wide association study of naturally varying Populus trichocarpa
Populus is a promising lignocellulosic feedstock for biofuels and bioproducts. However, the cell wall biopolymer lignin is a major barrier in conversion of biomass to biofuels. To investigate the variability and underlying genetic basis of the complex structure of lignin, a population of 409 three-year-old, naturally varying Populus trichocarpa genotypes were characterized by heteronuclear single quantum coherence (HSQC) nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR). A subsequent genome-wide association study (GWAS) was conducted using approximately 8.3 million single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), which identified 756 genes that were significantly associated (−log 10 ( p -value)>6) with at least one lignin phenotype. Several promising candidate genes were identified, many of which have not previously been reported to be associated with lignin or cell wall biosynthesis. These results provide a resource for gaining insights into the molecular mechanisms of lignin biosynthesis and new targets for future genetic improvement in poplar.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
The 16th Data Release of the Sloan Digital Sky Surveys: First Release from the APOGEE-2 Southern Survey and Full Release of eBOSS Spectra
The Sloan Digital Sky Surveys (SDSS) have been observing the skies from Apache Point Observatory (APO) since 1998 (using the 2.5m Sloan Foundation Telescope, Gunn et al. 2006) and from Las Campanas Observatory (LCO) since 2017 (using the du Pont 2.5m Telescope). Representing the fourth phase of SDSS, SDSS-IV (Blanton et al. 2017) consists of three main surveys; the Extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS; Dawson et al. 2016), Mapping Nearby Galaxies at APO (MaNGA; Bundy et al. 2015), and the APO Galactic Evolution Experiment 2 (APOGEE-2; Majewski et al. 2017). Within eBOSS, SDSS-IV has also conducted two smaller programs: the SPectroscopic IDentification of ERosita Sources (SPIDERS; Clerc et al. 2016; Dwelly et al. 2017) and the Time Domain Spectroscopic Survey (TDSS; Morganson et al. 2015). These programs have investigated a broad range of cosmological scales, including cosmology with large-scale structure in eBOSS, the population of quasars and variable or X-ray-emitting stars with TDSS and SPIDERS; nearby galaxies in MaNGA; and the Milky Way and its stars in APOGEE-2.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
A Reanalysis of Public Galactic Bulge Gravitational Microlensing Events from OGLE-III and -IV
Abstract Modern surveys of gravitational microlensing events have progressed to detecting thousands per year, and surveys are capable of probing Galactic structure, stellar evolution, lens populations, black hole physics, and the nature of dark matter. One of the key avenues for doing this is the microlensing Einstein radius crossing time (t E) distribution. However, systematics in individual light curves as well as oversimplistic modeling can lead to biased results. To address this, we developed a model to simultaneously handle the microlensing parallax due to Earth's motion, systematic instrumental effects, and unlensed stellar variability with a Gaussian process model. We used light curves for nearly 10,000 OGLE-III and -IV Milky Way bulge microlensing events and fit each with our model. We also developed a forward model approach to infer the t E distribution by forward modeling from the data rather than using point estimates from individual events. We find that modeling the variability in the baseline removes a source of significant bias in individual events, and the previous analyses overestimated the number of t E > 100 day events due to their oversimplistic model ignoring parallax effects. We use our fits to identify the hundreds filling a regime in the microlensing parameter space that are 50% pure of black holes. Finally, we have released the largest-ever catalog of Markov Chain Monte Carlo parameter estimates for microlensing events.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
HLA-Clus: HLA class I clustering based on 3D structure
In a previous paper, we classified populated HLA class I alleles into supertypes and subtypes based on the similarity of 3D landscape of peptide binding grooves, using newly defined structure distance metric and hierarchical clustering approach. Compared to other approaches, our method achieves higher correlation with peptide binding specificity, intra-cluster similarity (cohesion), and robustness. Here we introduce HLA-Clus, a Python package for clustering HLA Class I alleles using the method we developed recently and describe additional features including a new nearest neighbor clustering method that facilitates clustering based on user-defined criteria. The HLA-Clus pipeline includes three stages: First, HLA Class I structural models are coarse grained and transformed into clouds of labeled points. Second, similarities between alleles are determined using a newly defined structure distance metric that accounts for spatial and physicochemical similarities. Finally, alleles are clustered via hierarchical or nearest-neighbor approaches. We also interfaced HLA-Clus with the peptide:HLA affinity predictor MHCnuggets. By using the nearest neighbor clustering method to select optimal allele-specific deep learning models in MHCnuggets, the average accuracy of peptide binding prediction of rare alleles was improved. The HLA-Clus package offers a solution for characterizing the peptide binding specificities of a large number of HLA alleles. This method can be applied in HLA functional studies, such as the development of peptide affinity predictors, disease association studies, and HLA matching for grafting. HLA-Clus is freely available at our GitHub repository (https://github.com/yshen25/HLA-Clus).
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Genetic and plastic rewiring of food webs under climate change
Not provided.
Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
Editorial: Selective Controls on Microbial Energy Metabolisms: From the Microscale to the Macroscale
A mechanistic and predictive understanding of the genotypic and phenotypic controls on microbial element cycling remains a grand challenge in microbiology. While the composition and concentration of carbon sources, electron donors, and electron acceptors are known to influence microbial community structure by selecting for microbial sub-populations with distinct catabolic and respiratory pathways, selective inhibitors and trace nutrient availability modulate the activity of metabolic enzymes. This in turn influences the distribution of microbial sub-populations with distinct metabolic and respiratory traits, which are then structured by complex multi-dimensional environmental gradients that influence the composition, gene content and element cycling activity of microbiomes. While some parameters are known to select for different respiratory activities (e.g., lanthanides as essential nutrients for methanotrophs, molybdate as a specific inhibitor of sulfate reduction, carbon:nitrogen ratio and concentration as a control on the end-products of nitrate respiration), there are others to discover, and demonstrating how selective parameters operate and mediate element cycling across scales requires multi-disciplinary research in both the lab and field.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Impact of crowding on the diversity of expanding populations
Crowding effects critically impact the self-organization of densely packed cellular assemblies, such as biofilms, solid tumors, and developing tissues. When cells grow and divide, they push each other apart, remodeling the structure and extent of the population’s range. Recent work has shown that crowding has a strong impact on the strength of natural selection. However, the impact of crowding on neutral processes, which controls the fate of new variants as long as they are rare, remains unclear. Here, we quantify the genetic diversity of expanding microbial colonies and uncover signatures of crowding in the site frequency spectrum. By combining Luria–Delbrück fluctuation tests, lineage tracing in a novel microfluidic incubator, cell-based simulations, and theoretical modeling, we find that the majority of mutations arise behind the expanding frontier, giving rise to clones that are mechanically “pushed out” of the growing region by the proliferating cells in front. These excluded-volume interactions result in a clone-size distribution that solely depends on where the mutation first arose relative to the front and is characterized by a simple power law for low-frequency clones. Our model predicts that the distribution depends on a single parameter—the characteristic growth layer thickness—and hence allows estimation of the mutation rate in a variety of crowded cellular populations. Combined with previous studies on high-frequency mutations, our finding provides a unified picture of the genetic diversity in expanding populations over the whole frequency range and suggests a practical method to assess growth dynamics by sequencing populations across spatial scales.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Structural heterogeneity in non-crystalline Te x Se1−x thin films
Rapid crystallization behavior of amorphous TexSe1−x thin films limits the use of these alloys as coatings and in optoelectronic devices. Understanding the short- and medium-range ordering of the amorphous structure and the fundamental physics governing the crystallization of the films is crucial. Although the lack of long range crystalline order restricts the characterization of the amorphous films, electron microscopy offers a way to extract information about the nanoscale ordering. In this paper, the local ordering of amorphous TexSe1−x thin films with x=0.22, 0.61, 0.70, 0.90, and 1 grown by thermal evaporation is investigated using radial distribution function (RDF) and fluctuation electron microscopy (FEM) analysis. RDF results show that the nearest-neighbor distances of selenium (Se) and tellurium (Te) in their crystalline structure are preserved, and their bond lengths increase with the addition of Te. Density functional theory (DFT) calculations predict structures with interatomic distances similar to those measured experimentally. Additionally, fluctuations in atomic coordination are analyzed. Medium range order (MRO) analysis obtained from FEM and DFT calculations suggests that there are at least two populations within the chain network structure, which are close to the Se–Se and Te–Te intrachain distances. For the binary alloy with x > 0.61, TexSe1−x, Te–Te like populations increase and Te fragments might form, suggesting that the glass forming ability decreases rapidly.
Sari, Bengisu (ORCID:0000000244217098)↗
Socio-Structural and Neighborhood Predictors of Incident Criminal Justice Involvement in a Population-Based Cohort of Young Black MSM and Transgender Women
Black men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women are disproportionately affected by criminal justice involvement (CJI) and HIV. This study recruited 618 young Black MSM and transgender women in Chicago, IL, using respondent-driven sampling between 2013 and 2014. Random effects logistic regression evaluated predictors of incident CJI over 18 months of follow-up. We report, controlling for respondent age, gender and sexual identity, spirituality (aOR 0.56, 95% CI 0.33-0.96), and presence of a mother figure (aOR 0.41, 95% CI 0.19-0.89) were protective against CJI. Economic hardship (financial or residential instability vs. neither aOR 2.23, 95% CI 1.10-4.51), two or more past episodes of CJI vs. none (aOR 2.66, 95% CI 1.40-5.66), and substance use (marijuana use vs. none aOR 2.79, 95% CI 1.23-6.34; other drug use vs. none aOR 4.49, 95% CI 1.66-12.16) were associated with CJI during follow-up. Research to identify and leverage resilience factors that can buffer the effects of socioeconomic marginalization may increase the effectiveness of interventions to address the socio-structural factors that increase the risk for CJI among Black MSM and transgender women. Given the intersection of incarceration, HIV and other STIs, and socio-structural stressors, criminal justice settings are important venues for interventions to reduce health inequities in these populations.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
A Process-based Model with Temperature, Water, and Lab-derived Data Improves Predictions of Daily Culex pipiens/restuans Mosquito Density
While the number of human cases of mosquito-borne diseases has increased in North America in the last decade, accurate modeling of mosquito population density has remained a challenge. Longitudinal mosquito trap data over the many years needed for model calibration, and validation is relatively rare. In particular, capturing the relative changes in mosquito abundance across seasons is necessary for predicting the risk of disease spread as it varies from year to year. We developed a discrete, semi-stochastic, mechanistic process-based mosquito population model that captures life-cycle egg, larva, pupa, adult stages, and diapause for Culex pipiens (Diptera, Culicidae) and Culex restuans (Diptera, Culicidae) mosquito populations. This model combines known models for development and survival into a fully connected age-structured model that can reproduce mosquito population dynamics. Mosquito development through these stages is a function of time, temperature, daylight hours, and aquatic habitat availability. The time-dependent parameters are informed by both laboratory studies and mosquito trap data from the Greater Toronto Area. The model incorporates city-wide water-body gauge and precipitation data as a proxy for aquatic habitat. This approach accounts for the nonlinear interaction of temperature and aquatic habitat variability on the mosquito life stages. We demonstrate that the full model predicts the yearly variations in mosquito populations better than a statistical model using the same data sources. This improvement in modeling mosquito abundance can help guide interventions for reducing mosquito abundance in mitigating mosquito-borne diseases like West Nile virus.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗