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At least 163 records · Page 9

MRCI Task 4: Evaluating Regional Infrastructure Technical Summary Report

The infrastructure required to enable carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) goes beyond the equipment and materials needed to capture, transport, and store carbon dioxide (CO2) but includes people and policy that make CCS feasible. The Infrastructure Assessment task of the Midwest Regional Carbon Initiative (MRCI) seeks to determine the infrastructure requirements for the MRCI study area through four activities: • Infrastructure Readiness: Strategizing the buildout of capture, transport, and storage infrastructure in the Midwest, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic Offshore. • Site Readiness: Determining the CCS readiness of each state in the MRCI region in the categories of subsurface readiness; infrastructure readiness; regulations, permitting, and incentives; and social dynamics. • Jobs, Economics, and Social Characteristics: Quantifying the economic potential, job opportunities, and training opportunities for CCS as well as the social characteristics of the region with a focus on energy and environmental justice (EJ) issues. • Policy and Regulations: Providing an updated accounting of the CCS-relevant policy and regulations in the MRCI region.

CCUS,Carbon storage,Midwest,Midwest Regional Carbo↗

From Research to Reality -- Challenges and Opportunities in Complex System Design

The scope and scale of our interconnected society requires that we view the world through a complex system lens, where numerous parts interact, and emergent behaviors are the norm. Understanding complex systems is critical for decision-making and policy development in domains such as ecological systems, financial markets, supply chains, and global transportation systems, where decision-makers need reliable information to predict the impact of decisions that may play out over decades. Traditional approaches to the research that produces this information are often insufficient, where hypotheses are tested in an isolated environment, and where the results may not carry over to the integrated system. There are a multitude of advancements in system engineering, artificial intelligence, and test and evaluation that are emerging to meet the challenge. Approaches such as agile development, model-based system engineering, design of experiments, large language models, and formal ontologies are providing ways to manage complexity and increase our collective ability to make the changes that we want to see in the world. In this talk I will provide a few examples related to the architecture of the National Airspace System (NAS), where we have investigated the use of large language models, basic formal ontology, and applied category theory to help researchers and system engineers be more effective in this complex design space. Bio: Dr. Ian Levitt’s current research focus is on the complex evolution of the National Airspace System. Prior to joining NASA in 2020, he was with the FAA leading international standards and national laboratory development for the agency. Dr. Levitt earned his PhD in mathematics from Rutgers University in 2009. His mission is to promote a healthy and continuous transformation of society through open information and cooperation.

Ian Levitt↗

Detecting wetland changes in Shanghai, China using FORMOSAT and Landsat TM imagery

Understanding the state of wetland ecosystems and their changes at the national and local levels is critical for wetland conservation, management, decision-making, and policy development practices. This study analyzed the wetlands in Shanghai, a province-level city, using remote sensing, image processing, and geographic information systems (GIS) techniques based on the Chinese national wetland inventory procedure and standards. FORMOSAT imagery acquired in 2012 and Navy nautical charts of the Yangtze estuarine area were used in conjunction with object-oriented segmentation, expert interpretation, and field validation to determine wetland status. Landsat imagery from 1985, 1995, 2000, 2003 and 2013 as well as social-economic data collected from 1985 to 2013 were used to further assess wetland changes. In 2013, Shanghai contained 376,970.6 ha of wetlands, and 78.8% of all wetlands were in marine or estuarine systems. Estuarine waters comprised the single largest wetland category. Between the first national wetland inventory in 2003 and the second national wetland inventory in 2013, Shanghai lost 50,519.13 ha of wetlands, amounting to a mean annual loss rate of 1.2% or an 11.8% loss over the decade. Declines were proportionately higher in marine and estuarine wetlands, with an annual loss of 1.8%, while there was a sharp increase of 1882.6% in constructed water storage areas for human uses. Diking, filling, impoundment and reclamation, which are all attributable to the economic development and urbanization associated with population increases, were the major factors that explained the gain and loss of wetlands. Additional factors affecting wetland losses and gains include sediment trapping by the hydropower system, which reduces supply to the estuary and erodes wetlands, and sediment trapping by the jetties, spur dikes, and diversion bulwark associated with a navigation channel deepening project, which has the converse effect, increasing saltmarsh wetland area at Jiuduansha shoal by three times between 2000 and 2013.

Tian, Bo↗

Integrated Carbon Capture and Storage in Hydrogen Production: A Combined Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Assessment

This paper presents a coupled techno-economic and life cycle assessment of “blue” hydrogen to be produced at a hydrogen facility through steam methane reforming (SMR) equipped with carbon capture and storage (CCS). Blue hydrogen was modeled in ChemCAD, while an integrated asset model represented the carbon capture and storage chain. An unabated carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) configuration release 11.99 kgCO 2 -eq/ kgH 2 . Capturing ≥95% of the CO 2 stream lowers the carbon footprint to 6.59 kgCO 2 -eq/kgH2 but raises the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) from $\$$1.82/kgH 2 (no CO 2 capture) to $\$$3.22/kgH 2 ; the U.S. 45Q tax credit reduces it to $\$$2.59/kgH 2 . Incorporating CCS reduces the levelized net present value from $\$$0.87/kgH 2 to $\$$0.74/kgH 2 , owing to additional capture, transport, and storage costs. Supplying SMR with low-carbon electricity, especially nuclear, wind, or hydro, delivers the lowest carbon footprint relative to geothermal or grid mixes. Sensitivity analysis identifies that hydrogen sales price, internal rate of return, and CCS cost as the strongest economic levers, while electricity demand dominates residual lifecycle emissions. The results underscore a clear trade-off; substantial CO 2 reductions are achievable, but only with higher production costs, making supportive policy instruments, access to clean power, and robust hydrogen markets essential for large-scale deployment of blue hydrogen.

carbon capture↗

A map of roadmaps for zero and low energy and carbon buildings worldwide

Formulation of targets and establishing which factors in different contexts will achieve these targets are critical to successful decarbonization of the building sector. To contribute to this, we have performed an evidence map of roadmaps for zero and low energy and carbon buildings (ZLECB) worldwide, including a list and classification of documents in an on-line geographical map, a description of gaps, and a narrative review of the knowledge gluts. We have retrieved 1219 scientific documents from Scopus, extracted metadata from 274 documents, and identified 117 roadmaps, policies or plans from 27 countries worldwide. We find that there is a coverage bias towards more developed regions. The identified scientific studies are mostly recommendations to policy makers, different types of case studies, and demonstration projects. The geographical inequalities found in the coverage of the scientific literature are even more extreme in the coverage of the roadmaps. These underexplored world regions represent an area for further investigation and increased research/policy attention. Our review of the more substantial amount of literature and roadmaps for developed regions shows differences in target metrics and enforcement mechanisms but that all regions dedicate some efforts at national and local levels. Roadmaps generally focus more on new and public buildings than existing buildings, despite the fact that the latter are naturally larger in number and total floor area, and perform less energy efficiently. A combination of efficiency, technical upgrades, and renewable generation is generally proposed in the roadmaps, with behavioral measures only reflected in the use of information and communication technologies, and minimal focus being placed on lifecycle perspectives. We conclude that insufficient progress is being made in the implementation of ZLECB. More work is needed to couple the existing climate goals, with realistic, enforceable policies to make the carbon savings a reality for different contexts and stakeholders worldwide.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

An Efficient Bayesian Method for Advancing the Application of Deep Learning in Earth Science

Despite their wide and successful applications, deep learning (DL) models are prone to overfitting for small training datasets, produce a poor predictive performance for uncertain data, and provide point estimations without any indication of the accuracy and credibility. These limitations of the deterministic DL models hinder their effective application in Earth system science where the labelled data are sparse, noisy and incomplete with large uncertainty and where the predictive uncertainty quantification is needed for scientific understanding and policy decision making. Integration of Bayesian inference into DL models adds an estimate of uncertainty and regularization in the predictions. However, traditional Bayesian methods are computationally unaffordable and inflexible for high-dimensional problems, which limits their application to DL systems that typically have millions of model parameters. In this effort, we propose an efficient and general-purpose Bayesian inference method to advance DL model optimization and uncertainty quantification, so as to facilitate the adoption of DL in Earth sciences. In a demonstration, we integrate the proposed Bayesian method with a feedforward neural network (NN) to build a fast-to-evaluate surrogate of the complex Energy Exascale Earth System Land Model for efficient modeling. The formulated Bayesian NN, using a small number of training data, produces an accurate prediction with high credibility, whereas with the same small training size, the deterministic NN cannot yield a reasonable estimation and does not provide confidence information. The proposed Bayesian method is computationally efficient and flexible, capable of integration with diverse network variants such as convolutional NNs and recurrent NNs to advance the application of DL in Earth sciences.

Lu, Dan↗

An Improved Genetic Algorithm approach to the Unit Commitment/Economic Dispatch problem

The deployment of new technologies, the importance of accurately modeling the dynamics of the generating units and the introduction of new policies are making the solution of the Unit Commitment/Economic Dispatch problem more and more complicated.In the present scenario, traditionally followed scheduling criteria might not lead to the optimal fleet configuration any more. In addition, most of the widely used techniques have limited capabilities at modeling the nonlinear dynamics of committed power plants. When realistic power systems comprising of several tens of generating units are modeled, the resulting optimization problem turns to be computationally intensive for the current computing capabilities. In this paper, an improved version of a GA-based optimization algorithm is presented. A detailed methodology aimed at obtaining a more efficient version of the GA, and a more detailed and accurate description of the flexible operation flexibility of the power plants is described.

genetic algorithm↗

Accounting for spectroscopic effects in laser‐based open‐path eddy covariance flux measurements

Abstract A significant portion of the production and consumption of trace gases (e.g. CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, NH 3 , etc.) by world ecosystems occurs in areas without sufficient infrastructure or easily available grid power to run traditional closed‐path flux stations. Open‐path analyzer design allows such measurements with power consumption 10–150 times below present closed‐path technologies, helping to considerably expand the global coverage and improve the estimates of gas emissions and budgets, informing the remote sensing and modeling communities and policy decisions, all the way to IPCC reports. Broad‐band nondispersive infrared devices have been used for open‐path CO 2 and H 2 O measurements since the late 1970s, but since recently, a growing number of new narrow‐band laser‐based instruments are being rapidly developed. The new design comes with its own challenges, specifically: (a) mirror contamination, and (b) uncontrolled air temperature, pressure and humidity, affecting both the gas density and the laser spectroscopy of the measurements. While the contamination can be addressed via automated cleaning, and density effects can be addressed via the Webb‐Pearman‐Leuning approach, the spectroscopic effects of the in situ temperature, pressure and humidity fluctuations on laser‐measured densities remain a standing methodological question. Here we propose a concept accounting for such effects in the same manner as Webb et al. proposed to account for respective density effects. Derivations are provided for a general case of flux of any gas, examined using a specific example of CH 4 fluxes from a commercially available analyzer, and then tested using “zero‐flux” experiment. The proposed approach helps reduce errors in open‐path, enclosed, and temperature‐ or pressure‐uncontrolled closed‐path laser‐based flux measurements due to the spectroscopic effects from few percents to multiple folds, leading to methodological advancement and geographical expansion of the use of such systems providing reliable and consistent results for process‐level studies, remote sensing and Earth modeling applications, and GHG policy decision‐making.

Burba, George↗

Attributing Historical Changes in Probabilities of Record-Breaking Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extreme Events

Here, we describe two unprecedented large (100-member), longterm (61-year) ensembles based on MRI-AGCM3.2, which were driven by historical and non-warming climate forcing. These ensembles comprise the "Database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF)". We compare these ensembles to large ensembles based on another climate model, as well as to observed data, to investigate the influence of anthropogenic activities on historical changes in the numbers of record-breaking events, including: the annual coldest daily minimum temperature (TNn), the annual warmest daily maximum temperature (TXx) and the annual most intense daily precipitation event (Rx1day). These two climate model ensembles indicate that human activity has already had statistically significant impacts on the number of record-breaking extreme events worldwide mainly in the Northern Hemisphere land. Specifically, human activities have altered the likelihood that a wider area globally would suffer record-breaking TNn, TXx and Rx1day events than that observed over the 2001- 2010 period by a factor of at least 0.6, 5.4 and 1.3, respectively. However, we also find that the estimated spatial patterns and amplitudes of anthropogenic impacts on the probabilities of record-breaking events are sensitive to the climate model and/or natural-world boundary conditions used in the attribution studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analyzing the Impacts of a Biogas-to-Electricity Purchase Incentive on Electric Vehicle Deployment with the MA 3 T Vehicle Choice Model

In 2014, the EPA approved a biogas-to-electricity pathway under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). However, no specific applications for this pathway have been approved to date. This analysis helps understand the impact of the pathway by representing the biogas-to-electricity pathway as a point of purchase incentive and tests the impact of this incentive on EV deployment using a vehicle consumer choice model.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Travel patterns and characteristics of foreign-born sub-population in New York state

According to the 2010 Census, over 22% of total New York State (NYS) residents were foreign-born and over one in three persons living in New York City (NYC) were foreign-born. Foreign-born and their dependents impact local economies in many different ways, including purchasing power, transportation service needs, business sales and receipts generated, and workforce. To allow better policy decision making and program planning of transportation developments and investments in NYS, a clear understanding of the foreign-born population’s travel characteristics and behaviors, as well as their unique transportation service needs, are necessary. This report documents the characteristics of the foreign-born population and identified differences in travel behaviors and mobility issues between foreign-born residents of NYS and their U.S.-born counterparts.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Cost & Performance Requirements for Flexible Advanced Nuclear Plants in Future U.S. Power Markets

This report summarizes a modeling effort to estimate the highest allowable CapEx for advanced nuclear plants in future power market environments to still achieve a market rate of return for their owners. This is not a policy report making recommendations to policymakers about how to regulate power markets. Rather, the study’s assumptions and scenarios reflect likely market conditions across a large percentage of US electricity markets. Its goal is to define target cost and performance parameters determined by future market conditions in order to guide design choices and tradeoffs in the early stage of the reactor and power plant development process. Although this was not a deployment modeling exercise to determine the market size for a given technology at selected price points, it does suggest that advanced reactors delivered under the allowable CapEx thresholds identified in this report could cost competitively serve a significant fraction of load in the modeled power markets.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

USAID Energy Storage Decision Guide for Policymakers

The purpose of this report is to arm relevant decision makers with the initial layer of information they need to understand energy storage and to make informed policy, regulatory, and investment decisions around grid-connected energy storage. While many of the case studies presented in this report are based on experiences from the U.S. and Europe, the lessons learned can be applied to power sectors in emerging economies. Importantly, this report covers topics related grid-connected energy storage for power sector applications. The term “grid-connected” implies that the storage system is interconnected to a centralized power system. Topics related to off-grid, micro-grid and mini-grid energy storage applications are not covered in this report, nor are procurement practices for energy storage.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

How Does the COVID-19 Pandemic Affect Transport-Related Diesel Consumption in the U.S.?

Understanding how energy usage reacts to the COVID-19 pandemic is essential to making strategic policy decisions. This study aims to quantify the pandemic’s influences on diesel consumption and explore the potential causes of the differences across regions. We found various levels of reduction in diesel consumption at the state level during the pandemic in the U.S. Many factors, including COVID-19 cases and commodities being moved, are associated with these reductions. In particular, at the state level, more truck/train shipping of minerals, coal, and forest products associates with fewer truck activities and greater decreases in diesel consumption.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Simulative Prediction of Solar Illuminance and Application of the Du-Sharples Model in Estimating Adapted Daylighting Metrics for an Urban Environment

The practice of daylighting in indoor spaces can significantly reduce electricity consumption and carbon emissions, improve human productivity, and enhance mood and cognitive perception. This work discussed the recent developments in daylighting science and practice, computed the periodic variations in average diurnal daylight levels for each month, quantified in terms of global horizontal illuminance and diffuse horizontal illuminance, for Kolkata, India, a city with tropical wet and dry climate, with two empirical luminous efficacy models of estimating solar illuminance, and assessed daylighting metrics with the Du-Sharples model. A program was formulated that could compute and generate daylight data with monthly-hourly solar irradiation data and the Du-Sharples model was utilized to predict dirt-corrected daylighting metrics for three glazing transmittance values and five elemental carbon deposition levels on glazing material. The highest monthly average global horizontal illuminance is recorded in April (64.05 klx for Littlefair model and 66.82 klx for Muneer-Kinghorn model) and the highest monthly average diffuse horizontal illuminance is recorded in July (33.23 klx for Littlefair model and 30.63 klx for Muneer-Kinghorn model). Further, the computed yearly average global and diffuse horizontal illuminance levels agree well with a previous study that applied the Perez model. Yearly average horizontal work surface illuminance level remained >1.5 klx for window-towall area ratio >30 %. The approach adopted in this work and the temporal variation charts of computed exterior daylight level data may assist building service engineers, architects, and indoor lighting practitioners in making informed policy decisions at different stages of building planning.

Engineering↗

A Framework Using Applied Process Analysis Methods to Assess Water Security in the Vu Gia–Thu Bon River Basin, Vietnam

The Vu Gia–Thu Bon (VG–TB) river basin is facing numerous challenges to water security, particularly in light of the increasing impacts of climate change. These challenges, including salinity intrusion, shifts in rainfall patterns, and reduced water supply in downstream areas, are of great concern. This study comprehensively assessed the current state of water security in the basin using robust statistical analysis methods such as the Process Analysis Method (PAM), SMART principle, and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). This resulted in the development of a comprehensive assessment framework for water security in the VG–TB river basin. This framework identified five key dimensions, with basin development activities (0.32), the ability to meet water needs (0.24), and natural disaster resilience (0.19) being the most crucial and water resource potential being the least crucial (0.11) according to the AHP methodology. The latter also highlighted 15 indicators, four of which are particularly influential, including waste resources (0.54), flood (0.53), water storage capacity (0.45), and basin governance (0.42). Furthermore, 28 variables with high weight factors were identified. This framework aligns with the UN-Water water security definition and addresses the global water sustainability criteria outlined in Sustainable Development Goal 6 (SDG6). It enables the computation of a comprehensive Water Security Index (WSI) for specific regions, providing a strong foundation for decision-making and policy formulation. It aims to enhance water security in the context of climate change and support sustainable basin development, thereby guiding future research and policy decisions in water resource management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Southern Regional Workshop on Technology Assessment

A conference was conducted to provide information about, and training in, technology assessment for those who formulate policy and make critical decisions about technological programs and projects at the state and community levels, where the impacts of technological programs and projects at the state and community levels, where the impacts of technological development are most directly felt. Results and highlights of the conference are summarized.

Coates, V. T.↗

Research and test facilities for development of technologies and experiments with commercial applications

One of NASA'S agency-wide goals is the commercial development of space. To further this goal NASA is implementing a policy whereby U.S. firms are encouraged to utilize NASA facilities to develop and test concepts having commercial potential. Goddard, in keeping with this policy, will make the facilities and capabilities described in this document available to private entities at a reduced cost and on a noninterference basis with internal NASA programs. Some of these facilities include: (1) the Vibration Test Facility; (2) the Battery Test Facility; (3) the Large Area Pulsed Solar Simulator Facility; (4) the High Voltage Testing Facility; (5) the Magnetic Field Component Test Facility; (6) the Spacecraft Magnetic Test Facility; (7) the High Capacity Centrifuge Facility; (8) the Acoustic Test Facility; (9) the Electromagnetic Interference Test Facility; (10) the Space Simulation Test Facility; (11) the Static/Dynamic Balance Facility; (12) the High Speed Centrifuge Facility; (13) the Optical Thin Film Deposition Facility; (14) the Gold Plating Facility; (15) the Paint Formulation and Application Laboratory; (16) the Propulsion Research Laboratory; (17) the Wallops Range Facility; (18) the Optical Instrument Assembly and Test Facility; (19) the Massively Parallel Processor Facility; (20) the X-Ray Diffraction and Scanning Auger Microscopy/Spectroscopy Laboratory; (21) the Parts Analysis Laboratory; (22) the Radiation Test Facility; (23) the Ainsworth Vacuum Balance Facility; (24) the Metallography Laboratory; (25) the Scanning Electron Microscope Laboratory; (26) the Organic Analysis Laboratory; (27) the Outgassing Test Facility; and (28) the Fatigue, Fracture Mechanics and Mechanical Testing Laboratory.

Source record↗