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At least 163 records · Page 9

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NASA NTRS2018

Using Machine-Learning Methods and Expert Prediction Probabilities to Forecast Solar Flares

It has long been known that studying connection between solar flares and properties of magnetic field in active regions is very important for understanding the flare physics and developing space weather forecasts. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO/HMI) obtains tremendous amounts of magnetic field data products. However the operational NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) forecasts of solar flares still represent prediction probabilities issued by the experts. In this research we investigate the possibilities to enhance the daily operational flare forecasts performed at the SWPC by developing a synergy of the expert predictions and physics-based criteria, and by employing machine-learning methods. Among the physics-based criteria we consider the descriptors of the Polarity Inversion Line (PIL) and Space weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP), and derive from them daily characteristics of the entire Sun. We also consider the daily descriptors of the GOES Soft X-Ray (SXR) 1-8 Angstroms flux such as the flare history of the previous days and averaged X-Ray flux. We estimate the effectiveness in separation of flaring and non-flaring cases for each characteristic, as well as for the expert prediction probabilities, and find that some PIL, SHARP and SXR descriptors are as effective as the expert prediction probabilities and should be considered to issue the flare forecast. Finally, we train and test several Machine-Learning classification algorithms (Support Vector Classifiers with various kernel functions, k-Nearest Neighbor Classifier, Random Forest Classifier, and Neural Networks) using the most effective descriptors and expert prediction probabilities, and compare the obtained predictions with the current SWPC forecasts.

Machine-Learning↗

NASA NTRS2018

A Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Lessons learned from past failures of launch vehicle developments and operations were used to create a new method to predict the probability of failure of conceptual systems. Existing methods such as Probabilistic Risk Assessments and Human Risk Assessments were considered but found to be too cumbersome for this type of system-wide application for yet-to-be-flown vehicles. The basis for this methodology were historic databases of past failures, where it was determined that various faulty human-interactions were the predominant root causes of failure rather than deficient component reliabilities evaluated through statistical analysis. This methodology contains an expert scoring part which can be used in either a qualitative or a quantitative mode. The method produces two products: a numerical score of the probability of failure and guidance to program management on critical areas in need of increased focus to improve the probability of success. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of this new method, data from a concluded vehicle program (USAF's Titan IV with the Centaur G-Prime upper stage) was used as a test case. The theoretical vs. actual probability of failure was found to be 4.46% vs. 6.67% respectively. Recommendations are made for future applications of this method to ongoing launch vehicle development programs.

Launch Vehicle↗

NASA NTRS2019

Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Lessons learned from past failures of launch vehicle developments and operations were used to create a new method to predict the probability of failure of conceptual systems. Existing methods such as Probabilistic Risk Assessments and Human Risk Assessments were considered but found to be too cumbersome for this type of system-wide application for yet-to-be-flown vehicles. The basis for this methodology were historic databases of past failures, where it was determined that various faulty human-interactions were the predominant root causes of failure rather than deficient component reliabilities evaluated through statistical analysis. This methodology contains an expert scoring part which can be used in either a qualitative or a quantitative mode. The method produces two products: a numerical score of the probability of failure or guidance to program management on critical areas in need of increased focus to improve the probability of success. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of this new method, data from a concluded vehicle program (USAF's Titan IV with the Centaur G-Prime upper stage) was used as a test case. Although the theoretical vs. actual probability of failure was found to be in reasonable agreement (4.46% vs. 6.67% respectively) the underlying sub-root cause scoring had significant disparities attributable to significant organizational changes and acquisitions. Recommendations are made for future applications of this method to ongoing launch vehicle development programs.

Craig H Williams↗

NASA NTRS2022

Discrete Aurora on the Nightside of Mars: Occurrence Location and Probability

This paper represents the first attempt to predict the occurrence location and probability of discrete electron aurora on the nightside of Mars. We run a 3-D time-dependent magnetohydrodynamic model to characterize the spatial and temporal dynamics of magnetic field and plasma distributions over the course of one planetary rotation. We perform eight simulation cases under solar minimum quiet-solar-wind conditions (four equinox/solstice seasons, each with two interplanetary magnetic field polarities) and in an actual interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) case to assess quiet and space weather situations, respectively. The occurrence of detectable discrete aurora is subject to the combination of the probabilities that (a) the ionosphere is magnetically connected with high altitudes through open field lines and (b) precipitating energy fluxes of >30 eV electrons exceed 0.1 erg/cm2/s. Our results show that during quiet solar activity, discrete aurora occurs likely on small-scale patches embedded inside strong crustal magnetic field regions (with a magnitude greater than 50 nT at 150 km), and the overall chance across the globe is ∼0.77%. The higher probability over strong crustal field regions is attributed to the stronger magnetic field convergence. Modeling shows the occurrence probability dramatically increases during the ICME event, particularly by more than an order of magnitude in weak crustal field regions. Our model results reasonably agree with NASA Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN and Mars Express observations. Our study suggests that nightside discrete electron aurora is not caused by the direct entry of magnetosheath plasma in a cusp-like process but due to the recycling of nightside magnetospheric electrons.

Xiaohua Fang↗

DOE OSTI2019

Ensemble-based flood vulnerability assessment for probable maximum flood in a changing environment

The magnitude and frequency of hydro-meteorological extremes are expected to increase in a changing environment in ways that threaten the security of US energy-water assets. These include probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and probable maximum flood (PMF), which are used as hydraulic design standards for highly sensitive infrastructures such as nuclear power plants and main dams. To assess the flood vulnerability due to PMP/PMF, an integrated high-resolution process-based hydro-meteorologic modeling framework was used to develop ensemble-based probabilistic flood maps based on best-available historic observations and future climate projections. A graphics processing unit–accelerated 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model was used to simulate the surface inundation areas corresponding to a total of 120 PMF hydrographs. These ensemble-based PMF maps were compared with flood maps obtained from the conventional deterministic PMP/PMF approach, revealing added information about conditional probability of flooding. Further, a relative sensitivity test was conducted to explore the effects of various factors in the framework, such as meteorological forcings, antecedent hydrologic conditions, reservoir storage, and flood model input resolution and parameters. In conclusion, the proposed framework better illustrates the uncertainties associated with model inputs, parameterization, and hydro-meteorological factors, allowing more informed decision-making for future emergency preparation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Asymptotic Equivalence of Probability Measures and Stochastic Processes

Let P{sub n} and Q{sub n} be two probability measures representing two different probabilistic models of some system (e.g., an n-particle equilibrium system, a set of random graphs with n vertices, or a stochastic process evolving over a time n) and let M{sub n} be a random variable representing a “macrostate” or “global observable” of that system. We provide sufficient conditions, based on the Radon–Nikodym derivative of P{sub n} and Q{sub n}, for the set of typical values of M{sub n} obtained relative to P{sub n} to be the same as the set of typical values obtained relative to Q{sub n} in the limit n→∞. This extends to general probability measures and stochastic processes the well-known thermodynamic-limit equivalence of the microcanonical and canonical ensembles, related mathematically to the asymptotic equivalence of conditional and exponentially-tilted measures. In this more general sense, two probability measures that are asymptotically equivalent predict the same typical or macroscopic properties of the system they are meant to model.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2018

Path probabilities for consecutive measurements, and certain “quantum paradoxes”

We consider a finite-dimensional quantum system, making a transition between known initial and final states. The outcomes of several accurate measurements, which could be made in the interim, define virtual paths, each endowed with a probability amplitude. If the measurements are actually made, the paths, which may now be called “real”, acquire also the probabilities, related to the frequencies, with which a path is seen to be travelled in a series of identical trials. Different sets of measurements, made on the same system, can produce different, or incompatible, statistical ensembles, whose conflicting attributes may, although by no means should, appear “paradoxical”. We describe in detail the ensembles, resulting from intermediate measurements of mutually commuting, or non-commuting, operators, in terms of the real paths produced. In the same manner, we analyse the Hardy’s and the “three box” paradoxes, the photon’s past in an interferometer, the “quantum Cheshire cat” experiment, as well as the closely related subject of “interaction-free measurements”. It is shown that, in all these cases, inaccurate “weak measurements” produce no real paths, and yield only limited information about the virtual paths’ probability amplitudes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

A statistical model to predict ignition probability

Ignition capability is a critical design constraint for aeronautical gas turbines. However the current trend toward overall lean burn is detrimental to the engine ignition and relight and the ignition system must be adapted to ensure a fast and reliable light-round in all circumstances. As ignition is a stochastic phenomenon, the optimization of an ignition system requires to build ignition probability maps, which is difficult and costly with either experiment or numerical simulation as both require many tests. Here, this work proposes a model to predict the ignition probability map, knowing only flow statistics in non-reacting conditions, i.e., with only one test. The originality of the model is to construct statistics of the flame kernel trajectory, which are then combined with local flow indicators to evaluate the ignition probability at the considered sparking location. Application to a swirled burner operated in premixed, non-premixed and spray combustion modes illustrates the model concepts and demonstrates its ability to recover the experimental ignition map with good accuracy.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2014

Dynamics of atom-field probability amplitudes in a coupled cavity system with Kerr non-linearity

We have investigated the dynamics of two cavities coupled together via photon hopping, filled with Kerr non-linear medium and each containing a two level atom in it. The evolution of various atom (field) state probabilities of the coupled cavity system in two excitation sub space are obtained numerically. Detailed analysis has been done by taking different initial conditions of the system, with various coupling strengths and by varying the susceptibility of the medium. The role of susceptibility factor, on the dynamics atom field probability has been examined. In a coupled cavity system with strong photon hopping it is found that the susceptibility factor modifies the behaviour of probability amplitudes.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2014

Three-dimensional analytic probabilities of coupled vibrational-rotational-translational energy transfer for DSMC modeling of nonequilibrium flows

A three-dimensional, nonperturbative, semiclassical analytic model of vibrational energy transfer in collisions between a rotating diatomic molecule and an atom, and between two rotating diatomic molecules (Forced Harmonic Oscillator–Free Rotation model) has been extended to incorporate rotational relaxation and coupling between vibrational, translational, and rotational energy transfer. The model is based on analysis of semiclassical trajectories of rotating molecules interacting by a repulsive exponential atom-to-atom potential. The model predictions are compared with the results of three-dimensional close-coupled semiclassical trajectory calculations using the same potential energy surface. The comparison demonstrates good agreement between analytic and numerical probabilities of rotational and vibrational energy transfer processes, over a wide range of total collision energies, rotational energies, and impact parameter. The model predicts probabilities of single-quantum and multi-quantum vibrational-rotational transitions and is applicable up to very high collision energies and quantum numbers. Closed-form analytic expressions for these transition probabilities lend themselves to straightforward incorporation into DSMC nonequilibrium flow codes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2014

The role of the transition state in polyatomic reactions: Initial state-selected reaction probabilities of the H + CH{sub 4} → H{sub 2} + CH{sub 3} reaction

Full-dimensional calculations of initial state-selected reaction probabilities on an accurate ab initio potential energy surface (PES) have been communicated recently [R. Welsch and U. Manthe, J. Chem. Phys. 141, 051102 (2014)]. These calculations use the quantum transition state concept, the multi-layer multi-configurational time-dependent Hartree approach, and graphics processing units to speed up the potential evaluation. Here further results of these calculations and an extended analysis are presented. State-selected reaction probabilities are given for many initial ro-vibrational states. The role of the vibrational states of the activated complex is analyzed in detail. It is found that rotationally cold methane mainly reacts via the ground state of the activated complex while rotationally excited methane mostly reacts via H–H–CH{sub 3}-bending excited states of the activated complex. Analyzing the different contributions to the reactivity of the vibrationally states of methane, a complex pattern is found. Comparison with initial state-selected reaction probabilities computed on the semi-empirical Jordan-Gilbert PES reveals the dependence of the results on the specific PES.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Maximum probability domains for the analysis of the microscopic structure of liquids

We introduce the concept of maximum probability domains (MPDs), developed in the context of the analysis of electronic densities, in the study of the microscopic spatial structures of liquids. The idea of locating a particle in a three dimensional region, by determining the domain where the probability of finding that, and only that, particle is maximum, gives an interesting characterization of the local structure of the liquid. The optimization procedure, required for the search of the domain of maximum probability, is carried out by the implementation of the level set method. Results for a couple of case studies are presented, to illustrate the structure of liquid water at ambient conditions and upon increasing pressure from the point of view of MPDs and to compare the information encoded in the solvation shells of sodium in water with, once again, that extracted from the MPDs.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2016

Comparision of the different probability distributions for earthquake hazard assessment in the North Anatolian Fault Zone

In this study we examined and compared the three different probabilistic distribution methods for determining the best suitable model in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. We analyzed a reliable homogeneous earthquake catalogue between a time period 1900-2015 for magnitude M ≥ 6.0 and estimated the probabilistic seismic hazard in the North Anatolian Fault zone (39°-41° N 30°-40° E) using three distribution methods namely Weibull distribution, Frechet distribution and three-parameter Weibull distribution. The distribution parameters suitability was evaluated Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) goodness-of-fit test. We also compared the estimated cumulative probability and the conditional probabilities of occurrence of earthquakes for different elapsed time using these three distribution methods. We used Easyfit and Matlab software to calculate these distribution parameters and plotted the conditional probability curves. We concluded that the Weibull distribution method was the most suitable than other distribution methods in this region.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2016

The rigorous bound on the transmission probability for massless scalar field of non-negative-angular-momentum mode emitted from a Myers-Perry black hole

Hawking radiation is the evidence for the existence of black hole. What an observer can measure through Hawking radiation is the transmission probability. In the laboratory, miniature black holes can successfully be generated. The generated black holes are, most commonly, Myers-Perry black holes. In this paper, we will derive the rigorous bounds on the transmission probabilities for massless scalar fields of non-negative-angular-momentum modes emitted from a generated Myers-Perry black hole in six, seven, and eight dimensions. The results show that for low energy, the rigorous bounds increase with the increase in the energy of emitted particles. However, for high energy, the rigorous bounds decrease with the increase in the energy of emitted particles. When the black holes spin faster, the rigorous bounds decrease. For dimension dependence, the rigorous bounds also decrease with the increase in the number of extra dimensions. Furthermore, as comparison to the approximate transmission probability, the rigorous bound is proven to be useful.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Spatial correlations and probability density function of the phase difference in a developed speckle-field: numerical and natural experiments

Investigated are statistical properties of the phase difference of oscillations in speckle-fields at two points in the far-field diffraction region, with different shapes of the scatterer aperture. Statistical and spatial nonuniformity of the probability density function of the field phase difference is established. Numerical experiments show that, for the speckle-fields with an oscillating alternating-sign transverse correlation function, a significant nonuniformity of the probability density function of the phase difference in the correlation region of the field complex amplitude, with the most probable values 0 and p, is observed. A natural statistical interference experiment using Young diagrams has confirmed the results of numerical experiments. (laser applications and other topics in quantum electronics)

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2017

Computation of the Complex Probability Function

The complex probability function is important in many areas of physics and many techniques have been developed in an attempt to compute it for some z quickly and e ciently. Most prominent are the methods that use Gauss-Hermite quadrature, which uses the roots of the n th degree Hermite polynomial and corresponding weights to approximate the complex probability function. This document serves as an overview and discussion of the use, shortcomings, and potential improvements on the Gauss-Hermite quadrature for the complex probability function.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1992

Probability effects on stimulus evaluation and response processes

This study investigated the effects of probability information on response preparation and stimulus evaluation. Eight subjects responded with one hand to the target letter H and with the other to the target letter S. The target letter was surrounded by noise letters that were either the same as or different from the target letter. In 2 conditions, the targets were preceded by a warning stimulus unrelated to the target letter. In 2 other conditions, a warning letter predicted that the same letter or the opposite letter would appear as the imperative stimulus with .80 probability. Correct reaction times were faster and error rates were lower when imperative stimuli confirmed the predictions of the warning stimulus. Probability information affected (a) the preparation of motor responses during the foreperiod, (b) the development of expectancies for a particular target letter, and (c) a process sensitive to the identities of letter stimuli but not to their locations.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2019

Determining Appropriate Risk Remediation Thresholds from Empirical Conjunction Data Using Survival Probability Methods

Satellites sometimes maneuver before conjunctions to remediate the risk of an on-orbit collision. Many missions use probability of collision (P(sub c)) thresholds to decide when such maneuvers should be performed. These thresholds tend to be conservative because of policies that require satellites survive their lifetimes without collision with high confidence (e.g., 99.9%). This study presents a semi-empirical method to estimate remediation P(sub c) thresholds that satisfy such lifetime risk requirements. The formulation combines survival probability analysis with empirical conjunction histories to estimate remediation thresholds as a function of satellite size, remaining on-orbit duration, lifetime collision probability limit, collision consequence, and other parameters.

Risk remediation thresholds↗