SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 163 records · Page 9

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic Data Association for Orbital-Element Estimation Using Multistage Expectation–Maximization

Tracking space objects is important for managing space traffic and predicting collisions, but is difficult in part due to data association and orbit model uncertainty. Expectation–maximization (EM) is a commonly used tracking method that has not been widely considered for tracking space objects. The technique consists of iteratively computing data association probabilities with a set of current element estimates, and updating estimates of the elements by solving a nonlinear weighted least-squares regression problem where the weights are the data association probabilities. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of EM for probabilistic data association and orbital-element estimation by applying the technique to simulated data from two angles-only tracking scenarios. In both scenarios, EM provides correct data associations and accurate maximum likelihood estimates of orbital elements. One scenario considers tracking a single object in clutter and quantifies the improvement of the orbital-element estimates and data associations as the detection probability increases. However, standard application of EM requires knowing the number of objects or may fail when a large number of objects are present. To address these issues, this paper employs a multistage version of EM that is applicable when there are a large and possibly unknown number of objects.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

QRF4P-NRT: Probabilistic Post-Processing of Near-Real-Time Satellite Precipitation Estimates Using Quantile Regression Forests

Accurate and reliable near-real-time satellite precipitation estimation is of great importance for operational large-scale flood forecasting and drought monitoring. The state-of-the-art precipitation post-processing model is based on a deterministic approach to construct relationships between satellites estimates and ground observations. We propose a probabilistic postprocessor, the Probabilistic Post-Processing of Near-Real-Time Satellite Precipitation Estimates using Quantile Regression Forests (QRF4P-NRT), based on quantile modeling, yielding both deterministic and probabilistic predictions. The experimental design incorporates different solutions of near-real-time predictors to further improve the model performance. Using the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals Early Run for Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (IMERG-E) product as an example, we illustrate that the proposed method significantly improves the overall quality of the raw IMERG-E and is also superior to the bias-corrected product (IMERG Final Run, IMERG-F) at daily scale in a complex mountain basin. Evaluations of the corrected IMERG-E, raw IMERG-E, and IMERG-F using ground observation show that the corrected IMERG-E improves correlation coefficients (0.7), mean error (-0.14 mm/day) and root mean square error (3.3 mm/day) relative to the raw IMERG-E (0.31, -0.72 and 5.5 mm/day) and IMERG-F (0.34, -0.09 and 6.0 mm/day). The error decomposition further confirms that the QRF4P-NRT improves on the various deficiencies of the raw IMERG-E product. The ensemble assessment also demonstrates that the quantile outputs provide reliable prediction spread and sharp prediction intervals. The promising results indicate the great potential of the proposed method for probabilistic post-processing for near-real-time satellite precipitation estimates, and for further applications such as hydrological ensemble forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic extension of flexible hybrid state estimation for cyber-physical systems

Not Available

Švenda, Vanja G.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Probabilistic and deterministic aspects of linear estimation in geodesy

Recent advances in observational techniques related to geodetic work (VLBI, laser ranging) make it imperative that more consideration should be given to modeling problems. Uncertainties in the effect of atmospheric refraction, polar motion and precession-nutation parameters, cannot be dispensed with in the context of centimeter level geodesy. Even physical processes that have generally been previously altogether neglected (station motions) must now be taken into consideration. The problem of modeling functions of time or space, or at least their values at observation points (epochs) is explored. When the nature of the function to be modeled is unknown. The need to include a limited number of terms and to a priori decide upon a specific form may result in a representation which fails to sufficiently approximate the unknown function. An alternative approach of increasing application is the modeling of unknown functions as stochastic processes.

Dermanis, A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analytic Neural Network Gaussian Process Enabled Chance-Constrained Voltage Regulation for Active Distribution Systems with PVs, Batteries and EVs

This paper proposes an analytic neural network Gaussian process (NNGP)-based chance-constrained real-time voltage regulation method for active distribution systems with photovoltaics (PVs), batteries, and electric vehicles (EVs). NNGP can utilize historical measurement data to achieve real-time probabilistic node voltage estimation through Bayesian inference. Then, NNGP is fully analytically embedded into the optimal power flow model to perform voltage regulation and adapt to various topological changes. The uncertainties of voltage estimations are easily considered via the chance constraint, and it has been shown that the adoption of this chance constraint can significantly improve the reliability of voltage regulation under various scenarios. The comparison results with other methods, carried out on a real 759-node distribution system located in western Colorado, U.S., show that the proposed method can achieve accurate voltage estimation across different topologies and reliably perform voltage regulation considering PVs, batteries, and EVs.

active distribution systems↗

DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Analysis of Long-Term Degradation of Microwave Cavity Flow Sensor

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Final Report on Development of Microwave Resonant Cavity Transducer for Fluid Flow Sensing: Development of Microwave Cavity Flow Meter for Advanced Reactor High Temperature Fluids

We are investigating a microwave resonant cavity transducer for flow sensing in the vessel of a high temperature fluid advanced reactor (AR), such as a molten salt cooled reactor (MSCR) or a sodium fast reactor (SFR). This transducer is a hollow metallic cylindrical cavity, with one of the flat walls of the cylinder flexible enough to undergo microscopic deflection due to dynamic fluid pressure. Membrane deflection leads to a shift in the microwave resonant frequency, which can be detected with a spectrum analyzer. We have developed a continuum electromechanics model of the microwave resonant cavity transducer performance. The deflection of the membrane is calculated using equations from the theory of plates and shells for deflection of radially constrained thin circular disk under uniform load. The microwave frequency shift is calculated using the equations from the microwave cavity perturbation theory. The transducer model was validated with proof-of-concept experimental data of water flow sensing with a Brass 360 right circular cylinder with 22.2mm diameter and 203µm thick wall. The cavity was excited through a subwavelength hole in TE 011 mode with resonant frequency f ≈ 17.8GHz. Subsequently, we have performed a preliminary proof-of-principle test of flow sensing in high temperature liquid sodium in environment. For this test, we have developed a cylindrical resonator with the same dimensions as for the Brass 360 cavity. The resonator for high temperature liquid sodium test was machined from stainless steel 316 and electroplated with silver on the interior surfaces. We have also developed and insertion probe consisting of a 50cm WR-42 brass waveguide enclosed in a protective SS316 tube. The cavity was excited through a subwavelength hole on the side of the wall of the cylinder in the TE 011 mode with resonant frequency f ≈ 17.8GHz. The liquid sodium setup consists of a cylindrical vessel with a center feed line, where a transducer inserted through the top cap of the vessel measures velocity of the impinging liquid jet. The sodium flow sensing study was performed in a liquid sodium vessel at 340°C temperature and ambient pressure. The flow rate was changed by varying sodium pump power, and a frequency shift of several hundred kHz was observed. The transducer was removed after 70 days of testing. No visual damage was observed, and the electromagnetic response remained the same. As a calibration experiment, we have assembled a water vessel with a center feed, and with dimensions similar to those of the liquid sodium setup. Water flow sensing was performed before and after liquid sodium test. The responses in both cases are similar and agree with COMSOL computer simulations. Because long-term (multi-year) experimental tests of transducer resilience to harsh environment are not practical, we have developed a probabilistic model of creep to estimate transducer resilience to the harsh environment. The probabilistic model considers diffusion creep under the condition of high temperature and low stress, where the stress and temperature are allowed to be random variables with Gaussian distributions. Using the probabilistic model, we estimate inelastic membrane deflections due to creep for several temperature ranges. We conclude that for temperatures less than 650°C, creep has negligible long-term effect on the transducer performance.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian Structural Time Series for Behind-the-Meter Photovoltaic Disaggregation: Preprint

Distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation often occurs ``behind the meter": a grid operator can only observe the net load, which is the sum of the gross load and distributed PV generation. This lack of observability poses a challenge to system operation at both bulk level and distribution level. The lack of real-time or near-future disaggregated estimates of gross load and PV generation will lead to over scheduling of energy production and regulation reserves, reliability constraints violations, wear and tear of controller devices, and potentially cascading failures of a system. In this paper we propose the use of a Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) model with local solar irradiance measurements to disaggregate the summed PV generation and gross load signals at a downstream measurement site. BSTSs are a highly expressive model class that blends classic time series models with the powerful Bayesian state space estimation framework. Disaggregation is done probabilistically, which automatically quantifies the uncertainties of the estimated PV generation and gross load consumption. Depending on the data availability in real-time, it can be used to disaggragate PV and gross load at customer site, or can be used at the feeder level. In this paper, we focus on solving the problem at feeder level. We compare the performance of a BSTS model as well as a handful of state-of-the-art methods on a Pecan Street AMI dataset, using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to estimate local irradiance.

Bayesian structural time series↗

NASA NTRS2021

Global Soil Water Estimates as Landslide Predictor: The Effectiveness of SMOS, SMAP, and GRACE Observations, Land Surface Simulations, and Data Assimilation

This global feasibility study assesses the potential of coarse-scale, gridded soil water estimates for the probabilistic modeling of hydrologically-triggered landslides, using Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS), Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) remote sensing data, Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) simulations and six data products based on the assimilation of SMOS, SMAP, and/or GRACE observations into CLSM. SMOS or SMAP observations (~40-km resolution) are only available for less than 20% of the globally reported landslide events, because they are intermittent and uncertain in regions with complex terrain. GRACE terrestrial water storage estimates include 75% of the reported landslides but have coarse spatial and temporal resolutions (monthly, ~300-km). CLSM soil water simulations have the added advantage of complete spatial and temporal coverage, and are found to be able to distinguish between “stable slope” (no landslide) conditions and landslide-inducing conditions in a probabilistic way. Assimilating SMOS and/or GRACE data increases the landslide probability estimates based on soil water percentiles for the reported landslides, relative to model-only estimates at 36-km resolution for the period 2011-2016, unless the CLSM model-only soil water content is already high (≥ 50th percentile). The SMAP Level 4 data assimilation product (at 9-km resolution, period 2015-2019) more generally updates the soil water conditions towards higher landslide probabilities for the reported landslides, but is similar to model-only estimates for the majority of landslides where SMAP data cannot easily be converted to soil moisture owing to complex terrain.

Anne Felsberg↗

DOE OSTI2022

A reforecasting-based dynamic reserve estimation for variable renewable generation and demand uncertainty

The installed capacity of renewables-based energy sources has been increasing in traditional power systems. In order to accommodate the increased variability and uncertainty associated with the deeper penetration of renewable sources like solar and wind, adjusted amounts of dynamic reserve are needed. Although probabilistic dynamic reserve estimation methods have been previously developed, most of them consider the uncertainty to be represented by parametric density functions that tend to perform poorly under extreme events and, moreover, neglect uncertainty introduced by the forecasting model itself. Toward addressing these limitations, this work presents, for the first time, a dynamic reserve estimation method for flexibility that incorporates nonparametric density estimation and a machine learning based reforecasting to provide a day-ahead prediction of the mean and spread of uncertainty around the base forecast. The prediction is, in turn, used to estimate the up and down reserve relative to the base forecast. Here, the present method takes various endogenous and exogenous features, including the calendar variables, as input to estimate the day-ahead reserve. Using a combination of reforecasting and dynamic reserve estimation techniques, the method is shown to adjust better to the dynamic nature of reserve requirements providing only what is needed to accommodate the expected deviations. Considering California Independent System Operator (CAISO) solar, wind and load data over an 18 month period, up to 67% reduction in the amount of reserve capacity needed for a one day reserve and reserve penalty for solar uncertainty is demonstrated. Additionally, the risk of reserve insufficiency in meeting the net demand is reduced by 20% with the proposed method.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic Assessment and Uncertainty Analysis of CO2 Storage Capacity of the Morrow B Sandstone—Farnsworth Field Unit

This paper presents probabilistic methods to estimate the quantity of carbon dioxide (CO2) that can be stored in a mature oil reservoir and analyzes the uncertainties associated with the estimation. This work uses data from the Farnsworth Field Unit (FWU), Ochiltree County, Texas, which is currently undergoing a tertiary recovery process. The input parameters are determined from seismic, core, and fluid analyses. The results of the estimation of the CO2 storage capacity of the reservoir are presented with both expectation curve and log probability plot. The expectation curve provides a range of possible outcomes such as the P90, P50, and P10. The deterministic value is calculated as the statistical mean of the storage capacity. The coefficient of variation and the uncertainty index, P10/P90, is used to analyze the overall uncertainty of the estimations. A relative impact plot is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the input parameters towards the total uncertainty and compared with Monte Carlo. In comparison to the Monte Carlo method, the results are practically the same. The probabilistic technique presented in this paper can be applied in different geological settings as well as other engineering applications.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Convex Optimization of Integrated Power-Gas Energy Flow Model With Applications to Probabilistic Energy Flow

Energy flow calculation is a fundamental problem of the integrated power and gas system (IPGS) operation and planning. However, the nonlinear gas flow model introduces major challenges to the energy flow calculation. In this paper, we propose a tractably convex optimization model to solve the energy flow problem in IPGSs. It is demonstrated that the proposed optimization model has the same optimal solution as the original nonlinear steady energy flow model. Also, piecewise linearization is adopted to tightly linearize the nonlinear objective function of the model, which transforms the formulated convex optimization into a linear program one. Thus, the computation complexity of the proposed energy flow model is significantly reduced as compared with the existing methods. In addition, the proposed model can be extended to probabilistic energy flow estimation. Extensive case studies are conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed energy flow model using three IPGSs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2017

Prenatal exposure estimation of BPA and DEHP using integrated external and internal dosimetry: A case study

Prenatal exposure to Endocrine disruptors (EDs), such as Bisphenol A (BPA) and di (2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP), has been associated with obesity and diabetes diseases in childhood, as well as reproductive, behavioral and neurodevelopment problems. The aim of this study was to estimate the prenatal exposure to BPA and DEHP through food consumption for pregnant women living in Tarragona County (Spain). Probabilistic calculations of prenatal exposure were estimated by integrated external and internal dosimetry modelling, physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model, using a Monte-Carlo simulation. Physical characteristic data from the cohort, along with food intake information from the questionnaires (concentrations of BPA and DEHP in different food categories and the range of the different food ratios), were used to estimate the value of the total dietary intake for the Tarragona pregnancy cohort. The major contributors to the total dietary intake of BPA were canned fruits and vegetables, followed by canned meat and meat products. In turn, milk and dairy products, followed by ready to eat food (including canned dinners), were the most important contributors to the total dietary intake of DEHP. Despite the dietary variations among the participants, the intakes of both chemicals were considerably lower than their respective current tolerable daily intake (TDI) values established by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). Internal dosimetry estimates suggest that the plasma concentrations of free BPA and the most important DEHP metabolite, mono (2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (MEHP), in pregnant women were characterized by transient peaks (associated with meals) and short half-lives (< 2 h). In contrast, fetal exposure was characterized by a low and sustained basal BPA and MEHP concentration due to a lack of metabolic activity in the fetus. Therefore, EDs may have a greater effect on developing organs in young children or in the unborn child. - Highlights: • Prenatal exposure to EDs using total diet study for the Tarragona cohort presented. • Contribution of food categories to the total dietary intake of BPA and DEHP investigated. • Application of PBPK models to predict the fetus’ toxicokinetic profiles. • Free BPA and MEHP plasma concentrations in women characterized by transient peaks. • Fetus shows high sustained basal concentration of BPA and DEHP due to low or no metabolic activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Managing Uncertainty and Flexibility in Day-Ahead Electricity Markets

Net load imbalances from day ahead forecasts can lead to significant grid operations costs and are expected to increase as variable renewable energy adoption grows. We propose a new wholesale market product to manage the risk of net load imbalances called Flexibility Options. This product relies on probabilistic forecasts to estimate flexibility demand and would be co-optimized in the day-ahead market. We also propose stochastic methods that enable DER and flexible load aggregators to participate in flexibility markets while considering the uncertainty in weather and occupant behavior.

day-ahead market↗

NASA NTRS2003

Impact of Defect Distributions on the Reliability of Structural Materials

The purpose of this study is to develop a probabilistic model to estimate the fatigue life of gas turbine disks made of powder superalloy metals. Such metals are known to have high strength and ductility under extremely high temperatures and known to have high fatigue lives. However, despite the high quality controls instituted during metal processing, sufficiently high numbers of ceramic inclusions materialize within the metal matrix creating weak links that lead to reduced fatigue lives. To study the effect of such ceramic inclusions on the fatigue life of gas turbine disks, an experimental program has been initiated at the NASA Glenn Research. In this phase of the study, a statistical analysis of the test results is undertaken which served as the basis of the probabilistic simulation model. The study is a part of the Crack Resistant Disk Materials task within the Ultra Safe Propulsion Project.

Ghosn, Michel J.↗

DOE OSTI2018

K2-231 b: A Sub-Neptune Exoplanet Transiting a Solar Twin in Ruprecht 147

We identify a sub-Neptune exoplanet (R {sub p} = 2.5 ± 0.2 R{sub ⊕}) transiting a solar twin in the Ruprecht 147 star cluster (3 Gyr, 300 pc, [Fe/H] = +0.1 dex). The ∼81 day light curve for EPIC 219800881 (V = 12.71) from K2 Campaign 7 shows six transits with a period of 13.84 days, a depth of ∼0.06%, and a duration of ∼4 hr. Based on our analysis of high-resolution MIKE spectra, broadband optical and NIR photometry, the cluster parallax and interstellar reddening, and isochrone models from PARSEC, Dartmouth, and MIST, we estimate the following properties for the host star: M {sub ⋆} = 1.01 ± 0.03 M{sub ⊙}, R {sub ⋆} = 0.95 ± 0.03 R{sub ⊙}, and T{sub eff} = 5695 ± 50 K. This star appears to be single based on our modeling of the photometry, the low radial velocity (RV) variability measured over nearly 10 yr, and Keck/NIRC2 adaptive optics imaging and aperture-masking interferometry. Applying a probabilistic mass–radius relation, we estimate that the mass of this planet is M {sub p} = 7 + 5 – 3 M{sub ⊕}, which would cause an RV semi-amplitude of K = 2 ± 1 m s{sup −1} that may be measurable with existing precise RV facilities. After statistically validating this planet with BLENDER, we now designate it K2-231b, making it the second substellar object to be discovered in Ruprecht 147 and the first planet; it joins the small but growing ranks of 22 other planets and three candidates found in open clusters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Re-evaluating probable maximum precipitation estimates: sensitivity to transposition domains and storm rotation using modern datasets

This study examines the sensitivity of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimates to key methodological decisions embedded in the legacy approach adopted in the U.S. National Weather Service Hydrometeorological Reports No. 51 and No. 52. Although widely used for infrastructure design and risk regulation, fundamental aspects of PMP estimation—such as storm sample size, transposition domain, maximization procedures, and storm rotation—remain poorly constrained and lack formal guidance. Using the Red Rock watershed in Iowa as a case study, and leveraging the 2002–2023 NOAA Analysis of Record for Calibration (AORC) precipitation dataset, we systematically evaluate how each methodological choice, individually and in combination, influences PMP estimates. Our findings demonstrate that PMP is not a fixed physical upper bound but rather a modeling construct shaped heavily by user-defined assumptions. Notably, PMP values derived from modern gridded rainfall datasets can be substantially higher than the legacy estimate used in the original spillway design for Red Rock Dam. Decisions regarding storm sample size, domain extent, climatological window, and particularly storm rotation all contributed to higher PMP estimates. Storm rotation alone—a loosely constrained element in the current PMP practice—can amplify PMP by more than 25%. These results reveal the lack of standardized bounds in current PMP workflows and the need for systematic sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. As PMP estimation shifts toward probabilistic approaches, incorporating physically meaningful storm attributes will be key to developing more transparent, defensible methods for dam safety and climate-resilient infrastructure.

Probable maximum precipitation↗

DOE OSTI2018

Testing redMaPPer centring probabilities using galaxy clustering and galaxy–galaxy lensing

Here, galaxy cluster centring is a key issue for precision cosmology studies using galaxy surveys. Mis-identification of central galaxies causes systematics in various studies such as cluster lensing, satellite kinematics, and galaxy clustering. The red-sequence Matched-filter Probabilistic Percolation (redMaPPer) estimates the probability that each member galaxy is central from photometric information rather than specifying one central galaxy. The redMaPPer estimates can be used for calibrating the off-centring effect, however, the centring algorithm has not previously been well-tested. We test the centring probabilities of redMaPPer cluster catalogue using the projected cross-correlation between redMaPPer clusters with photometric red galaxies and galaxy–galaxy lensing. We focus on the subsample of redMaPPer clusters in which the redMaPPer central galaxies (RMCGs) are not the brightest member galaxies (BMEM) and both of them have spectroscopic redshift.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗