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Challenges in Understanding Radiation Belt Dynamics: Insights from Two Storm Periods

The periods of May 27 - June 5, 2017 and Oct 24 — 29, 2016 are 'unusual' in terms of radiation belt dynamics and their solar wind driving conditions. The first period was under the influence of a slow CME-led major geomagnetic storm with Dstmin = -125 nT and the second period was under high speed solar wind streams. Observations from Van Allen Probes show great variabilities in different electron energy channels for both periods. During the second period of Oct 24 - 29, 2016, electron fluxes are found to be near the highest upper limit among various storms during 2013–2018 (Hua, Bortnik and Ma, 2022). In this paper, we provide solar wind sources and geomagnetic conditions for these two storm periods and point out challenges in understanding, modeling, and forecasting radiation belt dynamics. In-depth analysis of modeling results utilizing radiation belt models available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center such as VERB and CIMI will be performed. Initial modeling results indicate rather large discrepancies with the observations. Model validation using different metrics introduced in Zheng et al. (2019) will be carried out to gain a deeper understanding of the physical processes involved and to identity potential causes of modeling inadequacies.

Yihua Zheng↗
DOE OSTI2021

Periodicity Analysis of Earthquake Occurrence and Hypocenter Depth Near Parkfield, California, 1994–2002 Versus 2006–2014

In central California, periodic earthquake occurrence suggests a relationship with annual hydrological, atmospheric, thermal, and tidal loadings. Here, in catalogs of declustered earthquakes within 100 km from Parkfield, CA, we study a semiannual periodicity for the monthly number of ≤7.2-km-deep earthquakes and the monthly median hypocenter depth over 1994–2002 and 2006–2014. Peak-trough months in fitted periodic components differ between time spans and event populations. Deeper earthquakes present no semiannual and a weak annual periodicity. Although modeled pore pressure shows a Spring peak, when added to the elastic Coulomb stress from surface hydrospheric loads, it fails to predict a 6-month periodicity for 2006–2014. In 1994–2002, the pore-pressure amplitude appears to be of same order as the elastic stress and may have had a stronger effect. In 2006–2014, we did not find load model parameters explaining the observed pattern or apparent changes following the 2003 San Simeon and 2004 Parkfield earthquakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Unified analysis of finite-size error for periodic Hartree-Fock and second order Møller-Plesset perturbation theory

Despite decades of practice, finite-size errors in many widely used electronic structure theories for periodic systems remain poorly understood. For periodic systems using a general Monkhorst-Pack grid, there has been no comprehensive and rigorous analysis of the finite-size error in the Hartree-Fock theory (HF) and the second order Møller-Plesset perturbation theory (MP2), which are the simplest wavefunction based method, and the simplest post-Hartree-Fock method, respectively. Such calculations can be viewed as a multi-dimensional integral discretized with certain trapezoidal rules. Due to the Coulomb singularity, the integrand has many points of discontinuity in general, and standard error analysis based on the Euler-Maclaurin formula gives overly pessimistic results. The lack of analytic understanding of finite-size errors also impedes the development of effective finite-size correction schemes. We propose a unified analysis to obtain sharp convergence rates of finite-size errors for the periodic HF and MP2 theories. Our main technical advancement is a generalization of the result of Lyness [Math. Comp. 30 (1976), pp. 1–23] for obtaining sharp convergence rates of the trapezoidal rule for a class of non-smooth integrands. Our result is applicable to three-dimensional bulk systems as well as low dimensional systems (such as nanowires and 2D materials). Our unified analysis also allows us to prove the effectiveness of the Madelung-constant correction to the Fock exchange energy, and the effectiveness of a recently proposed staggered mesh method for periodic MP2 calculations (see X. Xing, X. Li, and L. Lin [J. Chem. Theory Comput. 17 (2021), pp. 4733–4745]). In conclusion, our analysis connects the effectiveness of the staggered mesh method with integrands with removable singularities, and suggests a new staggered mesh method for reducing finite-size errors of periodic HF calculations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advances in statistical methods for cancer surveillance research: an age-period-cohort perspective

Background: Analysis of Lexis diagrams (population-based cancer incidence and mortality rates indexed by age group and calendar period) requires specialized statistical methods. However, existing methods have limitations that can now be overcome using new approaches. Methods: We assembled a “toolbox” of novel methods to identify trends and patterns by age group, calendar period, and birth cohort. We evaluated operating characteristics across 152 cancer incidence Lexis diagrams compiled from United States (US) Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program data for 21 leading cancers in men and women in four race and ethnicity groups (the “cancer incidence panel”). Results: Nonparametric singular values adaptive kernel filtration (SIFT) decreased the estimated root mean squared error by 90% across the cancer incidence panel. A novel method for semi-parametric age-period-cohort analysis (SAGE) provided optimally smoothed estimates of age-period-cohort (APC) estimable functions and stabilized estimates of lack-of-fit (LOF). SAGE identified statistically significant birth cohort effects across the entire cancer panel; LOF had little impact. As illustrated for colon cancer, newly developed methods for comparative age-period-cohort analysis can elucidate cancer heterogeneity that would otherwise be difficult or impossible to discern using standard methods. Conclusions: Cancer surveillance researchers can now identify fine-scale temporal signals with unprecedented accuracy and elucidate cancer heterogeneity with unprecedented specificity. Birth cohort effects are ubiquitous modulators of cancer incidence in the US. The novel methods described here can advance cancer surveillance research.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Detecting Long-period Variability in the SDSS Stripe 82 Standards Catalog

We report the results of a search for long-period (100 < P < 600 days) periodic variability in the SDSS Stripe 82 standards catalog. The SDSS coverage of Stripe 82 enables such a search because there are on average 20 observations per band in ugriz bands for about one million sources, collected over about 6 yr, with a faint limit of r ~ 22 mag and precisely calibrated 1%–2% photometry. We calculated the periods of variable source candidates in this sample using the Lomb–Scargle periodogram and considered the three highest periodogram peaks in each of the gri filters as relevant. Only those sources with gri periods consistent within 0.1% were later studied. We use the Kuiper statistic to ensure uniform distribution of data points in phased light curves. We present five sources with the spectra consistent with quasar spectra and plausible periodic variability. This SDSS-based search bodes well for future sensitive large-area surveys, such as the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time, which, due to its larger sky coverage (about a factor of 60) and improved sensitivity (~2 mag), will be more powerful for finding such sources.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improved ELMv1-ECA simulations of zero-curtain periods and cold-season CH 4 and CO 2 emissions at Alaskan Arctic tundra sites

Field measurements have shown that cold-season methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions contribute a substantial portion to the annual net carbon emissions in permafrost regions. However, most earth system land models do not accurately reproduce cold-season CH 4 and CO 2 emissions, especially over the shoulder (i.e., thawing and freezing) seasons. Here we use the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model version 1 (ELMv1-ECA) to tackle this challenge and fill the knowledge gap of how cold-season CH 4 and CO 2 emissions contribute to the annual totals at Alaska Arctic tundra sites. Specifically, we improved the ELMv1-ECA soil water phase-change scheme, environmental controls on microbial activity, and the methane module. Results demonstrate that both soil temperature and the duration of zero-curtain periods (i.e., the fall period when soil temperatures linger around 0°C) simulated by the updated ELMv1-ECA were greatly improved; e.g., the mean absolute error (MAE) in zero-curtain durations at 12 cm depth was reduced by 62 % on average. Furthermore, the MAEs of simulated cold-season carbon emissions at three tundra sites were improved by 72 % and 70 % on average for CH 4 and CO 2 , respectively. Overall, CH 4 emitted during the early cold season (September and October), which often includes most of the zero-curtain period in Arctic tundra, accounted for more than 50 % of the total emissions throughout the entire cold season (September to May) in the model, compared with around 49.4 % (43 %–58 %) in observations. From 1950 to 2017, both CO 2 emissions during the zero-curtain period and during the entire cold season showed increasing trends, for example, of 0.17 and 0.36 gC m -2 yr -1 at Atqasuk. This study highlights the importance of zero-curtain periods in facilitating cold-season CH 4 and CO 2 emissions from tundra ecosystems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2019

Global Crop Production: Adaptation to Temperature Increase Is Possible by Maintaining the Current Growing Periods

Increasing temperature trends are expected to impact yields of major field crops by affecting various plant processes, such as phenology and growth. However, future projections, especially at the global scale, do not consider any agronomic adaptation in farming practices. We use an ensemble of seven Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs) contributing to the AgMIP-Gridded project to quantify the impacts and adaptation potential of field crops under increasing temperature. We study how uniform warming scenarios up to 6 K affect the productivity and growing period duration of five major crops. The design of the experiment aims at understanding adaptation measures targeted to temperature-driven impacts and therefore leaves out changes in any other climate variable. We find that, without adaptation the dominant effect of temperature increase is to shorten the growing period and to reduce yields and production, consistently across crops and regions. We then test the potential of two agronomic measures to contrast warming-induced yield reduction, assuming that (i) cultivars with adjusted phenology would be used to regain the reference growing period duration; (ii) rainfed systems would be converted to irrigated. Despite substantial uncertainties in model parametrization and little agreement in spatial patterns, at the global aggregation, model results are robust. We find that up to 3 K of temperature increase, production losses could be fully compensated by maintaining the original crop growing period. Irrigation would also compensate production losses, but would not reduce the temperature impacts. Across regions, the model ensemble estimates larger adaptation potentials from unchanged growing periods in continental and temperate regions, than in tropical and arid regions, where also irrigation has respectively little effects and availability.

Irrigation↗
DOE OSTI2023

Superposed periodic kink and pulse solutions of coupled nonlinear equations

Here, we present novel previously unexplored periodic solutions, expressed in terms of Jacobi elliptic functions, for both a coupled Φ 4 model and a coupled nonlinear Schrödinger equation (NLS) model. Remarkably, these solutions can be elegantly reformulated as a linear combination of periodic kinks and antikinks, or as a combination of two periodic kinks or two periodic pulse solutions. However, we also find that for $m=0$ and a specific value of the periodicity (or at a nonzero value of the elliptic modulus $m$) this superposition does not hold. These results demonstrate that the notion of superposed solutions extends to the coupled nonlinear equations as well.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quasi-periodic travelling gravity–capillary waves

We present a numerical study of spatially quasi-periodic travelling waves on the surface of an ideal fluid of infinite depth. This is a generalization of the classic Wilton ripple problem to the case when the ratio of wavenumbers satisfying the dispersion relation is irrational. We propose a conformal mapping formulation of the water wave equations that employs a quasi-periodic variant of the Hilbert transform to compute the normal velocity of the fluid from its velocity potential on the free surface. We develop a Fourier pseudo-spectral discretization of the travelling water wave equations in which one-dimensional quasi-periodic functions are represented by two-dimensional periodic functions on the torus. This leads to an overdetermined nonlinear least-squares problem that we solve using a variant of the Levenberg–Marquardt method. We investigate various properties of quasi-periodic travelling waves, including Fourier resonances, time evolution in conformal space on the torus, asymmetric wave crests, capillary wave patterns that change from one gravity wave trough to the next without repeating and the dependence of wave speed and surface tension on the amplitude parameters that describe a two-parameter family of waves.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Wet Brush Homopolymers as “Smart Solvents” for Rapid, Large Period Block Copolymer Thin Film Self-Assembly

The spontaneous formation of periodic nanopatterns through the self-assembly of block copolymer (BCP) thin films offers an enticing path to engineer functional material properties over large areas, but the prohibitively slow ordering of ultrahigh molecular weight BCPs that generate large pattern periods (>100 nm) severely restricts the design space in which BCPs may be used. Here, we demonstrate that blending lamellae-forming polystyrene-block-poly(methyl methacrylate) diblock copolymers with very low molecular weight polystyrene and poly(methyl methacrylate) homopolymers can reduce by an order-of-magnitude the times required to form ordered large period patterns through solvent vapor annealing. Using in situ grazing-incidence small-angle X-ray scattering and ex situ electron microscopy, we show that the added homopolymer plasticizers act as a “smart solvent”: They increase the mobility of the long BCP chains by amplifying the dilution effect during solvent vapor annealing but segregate to like domains during subsequent thermal annealing to produce high-quality patterns with periods that may exceed 200 nm, which are readily transferred to other materials. The dramatic impact of homopolymer plasticizers may help extend the use of BCPs into new areas, particularly for visible light photonic applications that demand larger period nanopatterns.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nanoscale Periodic Trapping Sites for Interlayer Excitons Built by Deformable Molecular Crystal on 2D Crystal

The nanoscale moiré pattern formed at 2D transition-metal dichalcogenide crystal (TMDC) heterostructures provides periodic trapping sites for excitons, which is essential for realizing various exotic phases such as artificial exciton lattices, Bose–Einstein condensates, and exciton insulators. At organic molecule/TMDC heterostructures, similar periodic potentials can be formed via other degrees of freedom. Here, we utilize the structure deformability of a 2D molecular crystal as a degree of freedom to create a periodic nanoscale potential that can trap interlayer excitons (IXs). Specifically, two semiconducting molecules, PTCDI and PTCDA, which possess similar band gaps and ionization potentials but form different lattice structures on MoS 2 , are investigated. The PTCDI lattice on MoS 2 is distorted geometrically, which lifts the degeneracy of the two molecules within the crystal’s unit cell. The degeneracy lifting results in a spatial variation of the molecular orbital energy, with an amplitude and periodicity of ~0.2 eV and ~2 nm, respectively. On the other hand, no such energy variation is observed in PTCDA/MoS 2 , where the PTCDA lattice is much less distorted. Furthermore, the periodic variation in molecular orbital energies provides effective trapping sites for IXs. For IXs formed at PTCDI/MoS 2 , rapid spatial localization of the electron in the organic layer toward the interface is observed, which demonstrates the effectiveness of these interfacial IX traps.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Poling thin-film x-cut lithium niobate for quasi-phase matching with sub-micrometer periodicity

Quasi-phase-matched grating structures in lithium niobate waveguides with sub-micrometer periodicities will benefit the development of short-wavelength nonlinear optical devices. Here, we report on the reproducible formation of periodically poled domains in x-cut single-crystalline thin-film lithium niobate with periodicities as short as 600 nm. Shaped single-voltage poling pulses were applied to electrode structures that were fabricated by a combination of electron-beam and direct-writing laser lithography. Evidence of successful poling with good quality was obtained through second-harmonic microscopy and piezoresponse force microscopy imaging. For the sub-micrometer period structures, we observed patterns with a double periodicity formed by domain interactions and features with sizes <200 nm.

Zhao, Jie (ORCID:0000000306230125)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Discovery of a Candidate Binary Supermassive Black Hole in a Periodic Quasar from Circumbinary Accretion Variability

Binary supermassive black holes (BSBHs) are expected to be a generic byproduct from hierarchical galaxy formation. The final coalescence of BSBHs is thought to be the loudest gravitational wave (GW) siren, yet no confirmed BSBH is known in the GW-dominated regime. While periodic quasars have been proposed as BSBH candidates, the physical origin of the periodicity has been largely uncertain. Here we report discovery of a periodicity (P=1607±7 days) at 99.95% significance (with a global p-value of ~10 –3 accounting for the look elsewhere effect) in the optical light curves of a redshift 1.53 quasar, SDSS J025214.67–002813.7. Combining archival Sloan Digital Sky Survey data with new, sensitive imaging from the Dark Energy Survey, the total ~20-yr time baseline spans ~4.6 cycles of the observed 4.4-yr (restframe 1.7-yr) periodicity. The light curves are best fit by a bursty model predicted by hydrodynamic simulations of circumbinary accretion disks. The periodicity is likely caused by accretion rate modulation by a milli-parsec BSBH emitting GWs, dynamically coupled to the circumbinary accretion disk. A bursty hydrodynamic variability model is statistically preferred over a smooth, sinusoidal model expected from relativistic Doppler boost, a kinematic effect proposed for PG1302–102. Furthermore, the frequency dependence of the variability amplitudes disfavors Doppler boost, lending independent support to the circumbinary accretion variability hypothesis. Given our detection rate of one BSBH candidate from circumbinary accretion variability out of 625 quasars, it suggests that future large, sensitive synoptic surveys such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time may be able to detect hundreds to thousands of candidate BSBHs from circumbinary accretion with direct implications for Laser Interferometer Space Antenna.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Symmetric second-harmonic generation in sub-wavelength periodically poled thin film lithium niobate

Second-harmonic generation (SHG) extensively employs periodically poled nonlinear crystals through forward quasi-phase-matching to achieve efficient frequency conversion. As poling periods approach sub-micrometers, backward quasi-phase-matching has also been demonstrated, albeit by utilizing pulsed laser drives. The realization of symmetric second-harmonic generation, characterized by counterpropagating pumps, however, has remained elusive despite theoretical predictions. The main challenge lies in achieving strong nonlinear coupling with the poling period below half the wavelength of the second-harmonic light. The recent emergence of high-quality ferroelectric lithium niobate thin films provides an opportunity for achieving precise domain control at submicron dimensions. In this paper, we demonstrate reliable control of ferroelectric domains in a thin film lithium niobate waveguide with a poling period down to 370 nm, thereby realizing highly efficient continuous-wave pumped symmetric SHG. This demonstration not only validates the feasibility of achieving subwavelength periodic poling on waveguides but could also enable submicron ferrolectric domain structures to be leveraged in integrated photonics and nonlinear optics research.

Optics↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Asteroid Rotation Period Survey Using the China Near-Earth Object Survey Telescope (CNEOST)

We initiated the bilateral collaboration between the Lulin Observatory and the Purple Mountain Observatory to collect asteroid lightcurves using the Chinese Near-Earth Object Survey Telescope at the Xuyi Observation Station. The primary goal of this collaboration was to discover super-fast rotators (SFRs) and study their physical properties. Two campaigns have been conducted: (a) a survey of ∼45 deg{sup 2} using 8 minute cadence during 2017 February 26–March 2, and (b) a survey of ∼60 deg{sup 2} using 10 minute cadence during 2018 March 9–12. Our samples are mainly main-belt asteroids and some Hildas and Jupiter Trojans. Out of 4522 collected lightcurves, 506 reliable rotation periods were obtained. Among the reliable rotation periods, we found 16 candidates with a possible rotation period of <2.2 hr, in which (134291) 2006 DZ6 shows a very convincing folded lightcurve and the other 15 candidates only have a likely trend. Further confirmation is needed for the rotation periods of these SFR candidates. In addition, (2280) Kunikov seems to have an eclipsing feature on its lightcurve with a relatively long rotation period suggesting that it is likely a fully synchronized binary asteroid. When the preliminary spin-rate distributions were carried out for asteroids using different sizes, no obvious difference was found.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

ASASSN-14ko is a Periodic Nuclear Transient in ESO 253-G003

We present the discovery that ASASSN-14ko is a periodically flaring active galactic nucleus at the center of the galaxy ESO 253-G003. At the time of its discovery by the All-Sky Automated Survey for Supernovae (ASAS-SN), it was classified as a supernova close to the nucleus. The subsequent 6 yr of V - and g -band ASAS-SN observations revealed that ASASSN-14ko has nuclear flares occurring at regular intervals. The 17 observed outbursts show evidence of a decreasing period over time, with a mean period of P 0 = 114.2 ± 0.4 days and a period derivative of . The most recent outburst in 2020 May, which took place as predicted, exhibited spectroscopic changes during the rise and had a UV bright, blackbody spectral energy distribution similar to tidal disruption events (TDEs). The X-ray flux decreased by a factor of 4 at the beginning of the outburst and then returned to its quiescent flux after ~8 days. The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite observed an outburst during Sectors 4–6, revealing a rise time of 5.60 ± 0.05 days in the optical and a decline that is best fit with an exponential model. We discuss several possible scenarios to explain ASASSN-14ko’s periodic outbursts, but currently favor a repeated partial TDE. The next outbursts should peak in the optical on UT 2020 September 7.4±1.1 and UT 2020 December 26.5±1.4.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

DMTN-221: Periodicity Analysis in Alert Production

The baselined timeseries features to be computed in Alert Production include a Lomb-Scargle periodogram ran on two classes of variable systems: RR Lyrae and Eclipsing Binaries. Based on a simulated LSST-like cadence light curves taken from the Extended LSST Astronomical Time-series Classification Challenge (ELAsTiCC) we perform an end-to-end test to characterize the periodicity recovery on the Alert Production multi-band light curves. In both variable classes, we found that a single-band Lomb-Scargle implementation yields to a low fraction of recovered periods, with a significant preference on the simple periodic phenomena such as RR Lyrae. We also investigated the results from a multi-band Lomb-Scargle and found an increased fraction of recovered periodicities above 15% for the eclipsing binaries, and over 80$\%$ for the RR Lyrae stars. Our findings suggest that a multi-band Lomb-Scargle should be implemented for searching periodic phenomena through AP. We also asses the computational and scientific performance of several configurations on simulated alert data and find that our current configuration scales linearly with the number of detections while assuming an heuristic frequency grid.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1974

Digital redesign of continuous systems by matching of states at multiple sampling periods

This paper presents a method of digital approximation of a continuous-data system by the matching of states at multiple sampling periods. Two alternate methods are presented; one method samples the states every sampling period, and alters the forward and feedback gains, so as to match the states of the two systems at the end of N sampling periods. The second method requires the sampling of the states every N sampling periods, with the change of gains at each sampling period. An illustrative example using the one-axis dynamics of the Skylab Satellite is presented.

Yackel, R. A.↗