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NASA NTRS2014

Integration of the Total Lightning Jump Algorithm into Current Operational Warning Environment Conceptual Models

The presence and rates of total lightning are both correlated to and physically dependent upon storm updraft strength, mixed phase precipitation volume and the size of the charging zone. The updraft modulates the ingredients necessary for electrification within a thunderstorm, while the updraft also plays a critical role in the development of severe and hazardous weather. Therefore utilizing this relationship, the monitoring of lightning rates and jumps provides an additional piece of information on the evolution of a thunderstorm, more often than not, at higher temporal resolution than current operational radar systems. This correlation is the basis for the total lightning jump algorithm that has been developed in recent years. Currently, the lightning jump algorithm is being tested in two separate but important efforts. Schultz et al. (2014; AMS 10th Satellite Symposium) is exploring the transition of the algorithm from its research based formulation to a fully objective algorithm that includes storm tracking, Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) Proxy data and the lightning jump algorithm. Chronis et al. (2014; this conference) provides context for the transition to current operational forecasting using lightning mapping array based products. However, what remains is an end to end physical and dynamical basis for relating lightning rates to severe storm manifestation, so the forecaster has a reason beyond simple correlation to utilize the lightning jump algorithm within their severe storm conceptual models. Therefore, the physical basis for the lightning jump algorithm in relation to severe storm dynamics and microphysics is a key component that must be further explored. Many radar studies have examined flash rates and their relation to updraft strength, updraft volume, precipitation‐sized ice mass, etc.; however, relation specifically to lightning jumps is fragmented within the literature. Thus the goal of this study is to use multiple Doppler techniques to resolve the physical and dynamical storm characteristics specifically around the time of the lightning jump. This information will help forecasters anticipate lightning jump occurrence, or even be of use to determine future characteristics of a given storm (e.g., development of a mesocyclone, downdraft, or hail signature on radar), providing additional lead time/confidence in the severe storm warning paradigm.

Shultz, Christopher J.↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Total Lightning Perspective of the 20 May 2013 Moore, Oklahoma Supercell

In the early afternoon of 20 May 2013, a storm initiated to the west‐southwest of Newcastle, Oklahoma. This storm would rapidly intensify into the parent supercell of the tornado that struck the city of Moore, Oklahoma. This article describes what contributions total lightning observations from the Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array could provide to operational forecasters had these observations been available in real‐time. This effort includes a focus on the GOES‐R pseudo‐geostationary lightning mapper demonstration product as well as the NASA SPoRT / Meteorological Development Laboratory's total lightning tracking tool. These observations and tools identified several contributions. Two distinct lightning jumps at 1908 and 1928 UTC provided a lead time of 19 minutes ahead of severe hail and 26 minutes ahead of the Moore, Oklahoma tornado's touchdown. These observations provide strong situational awareness to forecasters, as the lightning jumps are related to the rapid strengthening of the storm's updraft and mesocyclone and serve as a precursor to the stretching of the storm vortex ahead severe weather.

Stano, Geoffrey T.↗

NASA NTRS2013

The Insertion of Human Factors Concerns into NextGen Programmatic Decisions

Since the costs of proposed improvements in air traffic management exceed available funding, FAA decision makers must select and prioritize what actually gets implemented. We discuss a set of methods to help forecast operational and human performance issues and benefits before new automation is introduced. This strategy could minimize the impact of politics, assist decision makers in selecting and prioritizing potential improvements, make the process more transparent and strengthen the link between the engineering and human factors domains.

air traffic control↗

NASA NTRS2014

Physical and Dynamical Linkages between Lightning Jumps and Storm Conceptual Models

The presence and rates of total lightning are both correlated to and physically dependent upon storm updraft strength, mixed phase precipitation volume and the size of the charging zone. The updraft modulates the ingredients necessary for electrification within a thunderstorm, while the updraft also plays a critical role in the development of severe and hazardous weather. Therefore utilizing this relationship, the monitoring of lightning rates and jumps provides an additional piece of information on the evolution of a thunderstorm, more often than not, at higher temporal resolution than current operational radar systems. This correlation is the basis for the total lightning jump algorithm that has been developed in recent years. Currently, the lightning jump algorithm is being tested in two separate but important efforts. Schultz et al. (2014; this conference) is exploring the transition of the algorithm from its research based formulation to a fully objective algorithm that includes storm tracking, Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) Proxy data and the lightning jump algorithm. Chronis et al. (2014; this conference) provides context for the transition to current operational forecasting using lightning mapping array based products. However, what remains is an end-to-end physical and dynamical basis for coupling total lightning flash rates to severe storm manifestation, so the forecaster has a reason beyond simple correlation to utilize the lightning jump algorithm within their severe storm conceptual models. Therefore, the physical basis for the lightning jump algorithm in relation to severe storm dynamics and microphysics is a key component that must be further explored. Many radar studies have examined flash rates and their relationship to updraft strength, updraft volume, precipitation-sized ice mass, etc.; however, their relationship specifically to lightning jumps is fragmented within the literature. Thus the goal of this study is to use multiple Doppler and polarimetric radar techniques to resolve the physical and dynamical storm characteristics specifically around the time of the lightning jump. This information will help forecasters anticipate lightning jump occurrence, or even be of use to determine future characteristics of a given storm (e.g., development of a mesocyclone, downdraft, or hail signature on radar), providing additional lead time/confidence in the severe storm warning paradigm.

Schultz, Christopher J.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Physical and Dynamical Linkages Between Lightning Jumps and Storm Conceptual Models

The presence and rates of total lightning are both correlated to and physically dependent upon storm updraft strength, mixed phase precipitation volume and the size of the charging zone. The updraft modulates the ingredients necessary for electrification within a thunderstorm, while the updraft also plays a critical role in the development of severe and hazardous weather. Therefore utilizing this relationship, the monitoring of lightning rates and jumps provides an additional piece of information on the evolution of a thunderstorm, more often than not, at higher temporal resolution than current operational radar systems. This correlation is the basis for the total lightning jump algorithm that has been developed in recent years. Currently, the lightning jump algorithm is being tested in two separate but important efforts. Schultz et al. (2014; this conference) is exploring the transition of the algorithm from its research based formulation to a fully objective algorithm that includes storm tracking, Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) Proxy data and the lightning jump algorithm. Chronis et al. (2014) provides context for the transition to current operational forecasting using lightning mapping array based products. However, what remains is an end-to-end physical and dynamical basis for coupling total lightning flash rates to severe storm manifestation, so the forecaster has a reason beyond simple correlation to utilize the lightning jump algorithm within their severe storm conceptual models. Therefore, the physical basis for the lightning jump algorithm in relation to severe storm dynamics and microphysics is a key component that must be further explored. Many radar studies have examined flash rates and their relationship to updraft strength, updraft volume, precipitation-sized ice mass, etc.; however, their relationship specifically to lightning jumps is fragmented within the literature. Thus the goal of this study is to use multiple Doppler and polarimetric radar techniques to resolve the physical and dynamical storm characteristics specifically around the time of the lightning jump. This information will help forecasters anticipate lightning jump occurrence, or even be of use to determine future characteristics of a given storm (e.g., development of a mesocyclone, downdraft, or hail signature on radar), providing additional lead time/confidence in the severe storm warning paradigm.

Schultz, Christopher J.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Limb Correction of Individual Infrared Channels Used in RGB Composite Products

This study demonstrates that limb-cooling can be removed from infrared imagery using latitudinally and seasonally dependent limb correction coefficients, which account for an increasing optical path length as scan angle increases. Furthermore, limb-corrected RGB composites provide multiple advantages over uncorrected RGB composites, including increased confidence in the interpretation of RGB features, improved situation awareness for operational forecasters, seamless transition between overlaid RGB composites, easy comparison of RGB products from different sensors, and the availability of high quality proxy products for the GOES-R era, as demonstrated by the case examples presented in Section 3. This limb correction methodology can also be applied to additional infrared channels used to create other RGB products, including those created from other satellite sensors, such as Suomi NPP Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS).

Elmer, Nicholas J.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Limb Correction of Individual Infrared Channels Used in RGB Composite Products

RGB↗

NASA NTRS2016

Limb Correction of Polar-Orbiting Imagery for the Improved Interpretation of RGB Composites

Red-Green-Blue (RGB) composite imagery combines information from several spectral channels into one image to aid in the operational analysis of atmospheric processes. However, infrared channels are adversely affected by the limb effect, the result of an increase in optical path length of the absorbing atmosphere between the satellite and the earth as viewing zenith angle increases. This paper reviews a newly developed technique to quickly correct for limb effects in both clear and cloudy regions using latitudinally and seasonally varying limb correction coefficients for real-time applications. These limb correction coefficients account for the increase in optical path length in order to produce limb-corrected RGB composites. The improved utility of a limb-corrected Air Mass RGB composite from the application of this approach is demonstrated using Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery. However, the limb correction can be applied to any polar-orbiting sensor infrared channels, provided the proper limb correction coefficients are calculated. Corrected RGB composites provide multiple advantages over uncorrected RGB composites, including increased confidence in the interpretation of RGB features, improved situational awareness for operational forecasters, and the ability to use RGB composites from multiple sensors jointly to increase the temporal frequency of observations.

satellite imagery↗

NASA NTRS2016

Application of Strategic Planning Process with Fleet Level Analysis Methods

The goal of this work is to quantify and characterize the potential system-wide reduction of fuel consumption and corresponding CO2 emissions, resulting from the introduction of N+2 aircraft technologies and concepts into the fleet. Although NASA goals for this timeframe are referenced against a large twin aisle aircraft we consider their application across all vehicle classes of the commercial aircraft fleet, from regional jets to very large aircraft. In this work the authors describe and discuss the formulation and implementation of the fleet assessment by addressing the main analytical components: forecasting, operations allocation, fleet retirement, fleet replacement, and environmental performance modeling.

Mavris, Dimitri N.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Flash Optical Energy from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite -16 (GOES-16) Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) is evaluated for many months during the Post Launch Product Test (PLPT) phase in order to ensure that optimal products are available for both the operational forecasting and broader scientific research communities. The emphasis of the PLPT phase is to validate the GLM performance (i.e., lightning flash detection efficiency, geolocation and time-stamp accuracy) using an extensive network of independent ground-based, in-situ, and space-based reference lightning detection systems. However, another essential aspect of the PLPT phase is to obtain benchmarks of the GLM lightning optical amplitude, so that any long-term degradation in the nadir-staring GLM camera system can be realized and quantitatively assessed. This is accomplished in a straight-forward manner by collecting a very large sample of lightning flashes across many geographical regions in the GLM field-of-view so that statistically meaningful benchmarks of lightning optical amplitude (i.e., optical energy in units of femto-joules per flash) are obtained. The benchmarking is particularly important to follow-on studies that will attempt to incorporate the flash optical energy product into new derived products (e.g., energy-weighted lightning "jump" warning algorithms, and lightning nitrogen oxides production estimates).

Lightning↗

NASA NTRS2018

Flash Optical Energy from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper

Flash↗

NASA NTRS2018

Lightning Imaging Sensor on the International Space Station: Assessments and Results from First Year Operations

Over two decades, the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and their partners have demonstrated the effectiveness and value of space-based lightning observations as a remote sensing tool for Earth science research and applications, and, in the process, established a robust global lightning climatology. The Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) provided global observations of tropical lightning for an impressive 17 years before that mission came to a close in April 2015. Now a space-qualified LIS, built as the flight spare for TRMM, has been installed on the International Space Station (ISS) for a minimum two year mission following its SpaceX launch on February 19, 2017. The LIS, flown as a hosted payload on the Department of Defense Space Test Program-Houston 5 (STP-H5) mission, was delivered to the ISS in the Dragon trunk and robotically installed in an Earth-viewing position on the outside of the ISS. Following successful activation and checkout, LIS has continuously observed the amount, rate, and radiant energy lightning within its field-of-view as it orbits the Earth. Placing LIS on the Space Station provides a great opportunity to not only extend the 17-year TRMM LIS record of tropical lightning measurements but also to expand that coverage to higher latitudes missed by the previous mission. Furthermore, this mission continues the important science focus to better understand the processes which cause lightning, as well as the connections between lightning and subsequent severe weather events. This understanding is a key to improving weather predictions and saving lives and property here in the United States and around the world. The LIS measurements, along with observations from the new Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) operating on NOAA's newest weather satellites, the Geosynchronous Operational Environmental Satellite-16/17 (GOES-16/17), are being used to cross-validate both systems. An especially unique contribution from the ISS platform is the production of real-time lightning data, especially valuable for operational forecasting and warning applications over data sparse regions such as the oceans. Finally, LIS provides simultaneous and complementary observations with other ISS payloads such as the European Space Agency's Atmosphere-Space Interaction Monitor (ASIM) that is exploring the connection between thunderstorms and lightning with terrestrial gamma-ray flashes (TGFs). Leveraging TRMM's well-established processing and data handling assures that LIS data can be quickly delivered to users.

space-based lightning↗

NASA NTRS2016

The CubeSat Infrared Atmospheric Sounder (CIRAS), Pathfinder for the Earth Observing Nanosatellite-Infrared (EON-IR)

The CubeSat Infrared Atmospheric Sounder (CIRAS) will measure upwelling infrared radiation of the Earth in the MWIR region of the spectrum from space on a CubeSat. CIRAS will demonstrate two new infrared sounding technologies. The first is a 2D array of High Operating Temperature Barrier Infrared Detector (HOT-BIRD) material, selected for its high uniformity, low cost, low noise and higher operating temperatures than traditional materials. The detectors are hybridized to a commercial ROIC and commercial camera electronics. The second technology is an MWIR Grating Spectrometer (MGS) to be designed and developed by Ball Aerospace to provide imaging spectroscopy for atmospheric sounding in a CubeSat volume. The MGS has no moving parts and is based on heritage spectrometers including the Ball Aerospace Spaceborne Infrared Atmospheric Sounder for GEO (SIRAS-G) IIP of 2007. JPL will develop the mechanical, electronic and thermal subsystems for CIRAS. The spacecraft will be a commercially available CubeSat. The integrated system will be a complete 6U CubeSat capable of measuring temperature and water vapor profiles with good lower tropospheric sensitivity. The CIRAS is the first step towards the development of an Earth Observing Nanosatellite Infrared (EON-IR) for potential use in a future operational forecasting system.

Pagano, Thomas↗

NASA NTRS2019

Cloud Influence on ERA5 and AMPS Surface Downwelling Longwave Radiation Biases in West Antarctica

The surface downwelling longwave radiation component (LW[down arrow]) is crucial for the determination of the surface energy budget and has significant implications for the resilience of ice surfaces in the polar regions. Accurate model evaluation of this radiation component requires knowledge about the phase, vertical distribution, and associated temperature of water in the atmosphere, all of which control the LW[down arrow] signal measured at the surface. In this study, we examine the LW[down arrow] model errors found in the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) operational forecast model and the ERA5 reanalysis model relative to observations from the AWARE campaign at McMurdo Station and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide. The errors are calculated separately for observed clear-sky conditions, ice-cloud occurrences, and liquid-bearing cloud layer (LBCL) occurrences. The analysis results show a tendency in both models at each site to underestimate the LW[down arrow] during clear sky conditions, high error variability (standard deviations > 20 W/m[exp2]) during any type of cloud occurrence, and negative LW biases when LBCLs are observed (bias magnitudes > 15 W/m[exp2] in tenuous LBCL cases; > 43 W/m[exp2] in optically thick/opaque LBCLs instances). We suggest that a generally dry and liquid-deficient atmosphere responsible for the identified LW[down arrow] biases in both models is the result of excessive ice formation and growth, which could stem from model initial and lateral boundary conditions, microphysics scheme, aerosol representation, and/or limited vertical resolution.

Israel Silber↗

NASA NTRS2019

Surface Emissivity Impacts on GOES-R Series Multi-Spectral Imagery Applications

Value-added imagery products from the GOES-R series Advanced Baseline Imager are used to identify features of interest for operational forecasters, including: blowing dust, smoke, volcanic ash, cloud cover, atmospheric moisture, biomass fires and snow cover. These features each have a specific spectral signal that algorithms are designed to detect, but those signals are not always unique to just a single feature. Sometimes, the surface can mimic the spectral signal associated with an atmospheric feature of interest, creating a false alarm in a value-added product which negatively impacts interpretation of that product. This case study focuses on one such situation where areas of desert in the southwestern United States mimic the positive value associated with low clouds in the Brightness Temperature Difference (BTD) between the 10.35 μm and 3.9 μm channels, producing a false alarm. In order to characterize these “false alarm” areas, this study uses the cloud-cleared background product from the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) to create a dataset of the cloud-free surface. Previous results have shown that cloud-cleared backgrounds of the 10.35 μm-3.9 μm BTD have successfully identified areas of positive BTDs in the cloud-free environment, proving that it is a property of the surface emissivity and a true “false alarm”. This study builds on that previous research to further characterize the seasonality of the “false-alarm” regions and to catalogue how they impact interpretation of multi-spectral imagery products from the GOES-R series ABI, especially the Nighttime Microphysics RGB created by NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center.

Burke, Angela↗

NASA NTRS2020

A Statistical Model to Predict the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones

This paper introduces a logistic regression model for the extratropical transition(ET) of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and the Western North Pacific, using elastic net regularization to select predictors and estimate coefficients.Predictors are chosen from the 1979-2017 best track and reanalysis datasets, and verification is done against the tropical/extratropical labels in the best track data. In an independent test set, the model skillfully predicts ET at lead times up to two days, with latitude and sea surface temperature as its most important predictors. At a lead time of 24 h, it predicts ET with a Matthews correlation coefficient of 0.4 in the North Atlantic, and 0.6 in the Western North Pacific. It identifies 80% of storms undergoing ET in the North Atlantic, and 92% of those in the Western North Pacific. 90% of transition time errors are less than 24 h. Select examples of the model's performance on individual storms illustrate its strengths and weaknesses.Two versions of the model are presented: an "operational model" that may provide baseline guidance for operational forecasts, and a "hazard model"that can be integrated into statistical TC risk models. As instantaneous diagnostics for tropical/extratropical status, both models' zero lead time predictions perform about as well as the widely used Cyclone Phase Space (CPS) in the Western North Pacific and better than the CPS in the North Atlantic, and predict the timings of the transitions better than CPS in both basins.

Melanie Bieli↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SMAP MISSION STATUS AND PLAN

The National Aeronautics Space Administration’s (NASA’s) Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission will be completing its first extension phase in August 2020. The uncertainty of SMAP soil moisture products is ≤ 0.04 m3/m3. During the first extension phase, SMAP data have been used to advance our understanding of water, energy and carbon cycles. Significant progress has also been made to transition the use of SMAP data to operational communities. In particular, the United States Air Force (USAF) and United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) have included SMAP data in their operational forecast systems. The SMAP project has been performing a recalibration of radiometer data using four years of cold sky maneuver data. The recalibrated data and updated soil moisture and freeze/thaw products will be presented during the meeting. The SMAP project is preparing an extension proposal to continue the data acquisition and processing activities for another three years (2021-2023) and also identifying additional activities for 2024-2026. We will describe the activities for the second extension phase, including plans for SMAPVEX20 and ’22 field campaigns.

Simon H. Yueh↗

NASA NTRS2022

Advances in the prediction of MJO-Teleconnections in the S2S forecast systems

This study evaluates the ability of state-of-the-art subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasting systems to represent and predict the teleconnections of the Madden Julian Oscillations and their effects on weather in terms of midlatitude weather patterns and North Atlantic tropical cyclones. This evaluation of forecast systems applies novel diagnostics developed to track teleconnections along their preferred pathways in the troposphere and stratosphere, and to measure the global and regional responses induced by teleconnections across both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Results of this study will help the modeling community understand to what extent the potential to predict the weather on S2S time scales is achieved by the current generation of forecasting systems, while informing where to focus further development efforts. The findings of this study will also provide impact modelers and decision makers with a better understanding of the potential of S2S predictions related to MJO teleconnections.

Forecasting↗