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Measurement of fission products from Star Fish high-altitude nuclear explosion with recording gamma-ray spectrometer
Noble gas transport through geologic media has important applications in the prediction and characterization of measured gas signatures related to underground nuclear explosions (UNEs). Retarding processes such as adsorption can cause significant species fractionation of radionuclide gases, which has implications for measured and predicted signatures used to distinguish radioxenon originating from civilian nuclear facilities or from UNEs. Accounting for the effects of variable water saturation in geologic media on tracer transport is one of the most challenging aspects of modeling gas transport because there is no unifying relationship for the associated tortuosity changes between different rock types, and reactive transport processes such as adsorption that are affected by the presence of water likewise behave differently between gas species. In this study, we perform numerical diffusive-adsorptive transport simulations to estimate gas transport parameters associated with bench-scale laboratory diffusion cell experiments measuring breakthrough in zeolitic and non-zeolitic rocks for a gaseous mixture of xenon, krypton, and SF 6 at varying degrees of water saturation (S w ). Counter-intuitive transport behavior was observed in the zeolitic rock experiments whereby breakthrough concentrations were significantly higher when the core was partially saturated (S w = 17 %) than under dry (S w = 0 %) conditions. Breakthrough of xenon was especially retarded in the dry core – likely due to comparatively high affinity of xenon for zeolitic adsorption sites – and estimated effective diffusion coefficients for all gases were approximately an order of magnitude lower than what is predicted by porosity-tortuosity models. We propose the counter-intuitive behavior observed is because water infiltration of zeolite nanopores reduces both the adsorptive capacity of the rock and the tortuosity of connected flow paths. We developed a two-site competitive kinetic Langmuir adsorption reaction for the porous media transport simulator in order to constrain transport parameters within zeolitic tuff, where differential adsorption to zeolite and non-zeolite pores was observed. We determined that liquid saturation-dependent diffusive-adsorptive transport is affected by subtle and at times competing processes that are specific to different gases, which have a significant overall influence on effective transport parameters.
A suite of measurement systems were deployed as part of the Physical Experiment 1 series of experiments, which involved detonating chemical explosives along with radionuclide tracers in an underground cavity, at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in the United States. One of the radionuclide tracers, 127 Xe was released from the containment following the explosion and detected on a SAUNA Q B sampler situated approximately 3.5 km away. The system uses a beta-gamma coincidence detector system to measure fission product radioisotopes of xenon relevant to nuclear explosion monitoring. In this work we use the coincidence measurement data to analyse and interpret the results from the SAUNA Q B system, to calculate the measured 127 Xe activity concentration(s).
This poster describes details of a Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to produce and measure argon-37 for nuclear explosion detection.
The Source Term Analysis of Xenon (STAX) project has been installing stack detectors at medical isotope production facilities to measure radioxenon emissions to investigate the effect of radioxenon releases on nuclear explosion monitoring. This paper outlines the installation of the first STAX detection system at the National Institute for Radioelements (IRE) in Fleurus, Belgium which has been operating for over three years and transferring collected data to the STAX repository. Information about the equipment installed, the data flow established, and calculations for determination of radioxenon releases from the facility are presented. Further. data quality was investigated to confirm values reported by STAX automated data processing and in a comparison of collected STAX data with data collected by IRE for regulatory reporting.
Natural and anthropogenic infrasound may travel vast distances, making it an invaluable resource for monitoring phenomena such as nuclear explosions, volcanic eruptions, severe storms, and many others. Typically, these waves are captured using pressure sensors, which cannot encode the direction of arrival—critical information when the source location is not known beforehand. Obtaining this information therefore requires arrays of sensors with apertures ranging from tens of meters to kilometers depending on the wavelengths of interest. This is often impractical in locations that lack the necessary real estate (urban areas, rugged regions, or remote islands); in any case, it requires multiple power, digitizer, and telemetry deployments. In this work, the theoretical basis behind a compact infrasound direction of arrival sensor based on the acoustic metamaterials is presented. This sensor occupies a footprint that is orders of magnitude smaller than the span of a typical infrasound array. The diminutive size of the unit greatly expands the locations where it can be deployed. The sensor design is described, its ability to determine the direction of arrival is evaluated, and further avenues of study are suggested.
Discrimination of underground explosions from naturally occurring earthquakes and other anthropogenic sources is one of the fundamental challenges of nuclear explosion monitoring. In an operational setting, the number of events that can be thoroughly investigated by analysts is limited by available resources. The capability to rapidly screen out events that can be robustly identified as not being explosions is, therefore, of great potential benefit. Nevertheless, possible mis-classification of explosions as earthquakes currently limits the use of screening methods for verification of test-ban treaties. Moment tensors provide a physics-based classification tool for the characterization of different seismic sources and have enabled the advent of new techniques for discriminating between earthquakes and explosions. Following normalization and projection of their six-degree vectors onto the hypersphere, existing screening approaches use spherically symmetric metrics to determine whether any new moment tensor may have been an explosion. Here, we show that populations of moment tensors for both earthquakes and explosions are anisotropically distributed on the hypersphere. Distributions possessing elliptical symmetry, such as the scaled von Mises–Fisher distribution, therefore provide a better description of these populations than the existing spherically symmetric models. We describe a method that uses these elliptical distributions in combination with a Bayesian classifier to achieve successful classification rates of 99 per cent for explosions and 98 per cent for earthquakes using existing catalogues of events from the western United States. The 1983 May 5 Crowdie underground nuclear test and 2018 July 20 DAG-1 deep-borehole chemical explosion are the only two explosions out of 140 that are incorrectly classified. Application of the method to the 2006–2017 nuclear tests in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea yields 100 per cent identification rates and we provide a simple routine MTid for general usage. The approach provides a means to rapidly assess the likelihood of an event being an explosion and can be built into monitoring workflows that rely on simultaneously assessing multiple different discrimination metrics.
Discriminating low-yield underground nuclear explosions from small earthquakes is a key task in monitoring nuclear test ban treaties. P/S amplitude ratios have been an effective discriminant for moderate-sized events recorded at regional distances, but it is unclear if they are as effective in discriminating small seismic events recorded at local distances (<150 km). The difference between local magnitude (M L ) and coda duration magnitude (M c ) has been proposed as a new discriminant that may complement P/S amplitude ratios at local distances. Here, in this work, we calculate high-frequency (up to ∼4 Hz) synthetic seismograms at epicentral distances of 0–30 km in realistic models of the Salt Lake basin (Utah, United States) to better understand how variations in source type and depth affect M L −M c values. The Earth models incorporate simplified 1D and deterministic 3D structures, small-wavelength stochastic velocity perturbations, and surface topography. Coda waves are enhanced for the more complicated models compared to the base 1D model, but still underpredict observed durations by about a factor of two, which results in overprediction of amplitude to duration ratios (i.e., M L −M c values) for a near-surface explosion and a 7 km deep earthquake. For both source types, the predicted M L and M c values decrease as source depth increases, and M L −M c shows only minor variation with depth; however, M L −M c is on average ∼0.5 units smaller for explosions than earthquakes. This finding may imply that M L −M c has sensitivity to source type, in addition to being a depth discriminant, but more modeling is needed given the limitations of the current study. Future modeling should incorporate higher-frequency (≳5 Hz) simulations over a larger distance range (0–150 km), where M L and M c are commonly measured, while honoring low shear velocities (<300 m/s) near the surface and sampling a wider range of earthquake and explosion source mechanisms.
SUMMARY An underground nuclear explosion (UNE) couples mechanical energy into crustal rock, which propagates as seismic and acoustic waves. These different physical phenomena transport, by different pathways, to standoff detectors at varying distances. The transport pathways attenuate the original signal but in different ways. Enabled by correct statistical weighting, signal attenuation models can be used to combine these disparate sensor data to estimate the yield of an UNE. Contemporaneous statistical models, used in yield estimation, can be improved with an advanced partition of error for these physical signal propagation models. We present an advanced multivariate approach to error modelling of multiphenomenology physical signatures. In addition to measurement error, our error model represents physical model biases as random with a physics-based covariance structure. To illustrate this proposed framework, we demonstrate the estimation of explosion yield using openly available seismic and acoustic data from chemical single-point explosions.
Detection of radioxenon and radioargon produced by underground nuclear explosions is one of the primary methods by which the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test–Ban Treaty (CTBT) monitors for nuclear activities. However, transport of these noble gases to the surface via barometric pumping is a complex process relying on advective and diffusive processes in a fractured porous medium to bring detectable levels to the surface. To better understand this process, experimental measurements of noble gas and chemical surrogate diffusivity in relevant lithologies are necessary. However, measurement of noble gas diffusivity in tight or partially saturated porous media is challenging due to the transparent nature of noble gases, the lengthy diffusion times, and difficulty maintaining consistent water saturation. Here, the quasi-steady-state Ney–Armistead method is modified to accommodate continuous gas sampling via effusive flow to a mass spectrometer. An analytical solution accounting for the cumulative sampling losses and induced advective flow is then derived. Experimental results appear in good agreement with the proposed theory, suggesting the presence of retained groundwater reduces the effective diffusivity of the gas tracers by 10–1000 times. Finally, by using a mass spectrometer, the method described herein is applicable to a broad range of gas species and porous media.
Many countries are considering nuclear power as a means of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and the IAEA (IAEA, 2022) has forecasted nuclear power growth rates up to 224% of the 2021 level by 2050. Nuclear power plants release trace quantities of radioxenon, an inert gas that is also monitored under international agreements as a signature of nuclear weapons tests. To better understand how nuclear energy growth (and resulting Xe emissions) could affect this global nonproliferation architecture, we modeled daily releases of radioxenon isotopes used for nuclear explosion detection in the International Monitoring System (IMS) that is part of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty: 131m Xe, 133 Xe, 133m Xe, and 135 Xe to examine the change in the number of radioxenon detections as compared to the 2021 detection levels. If a 40-station IMS network is used, the detections of 133 Xe in 2050 would range from 82% for the low-power scenario to 195% for the high-power scenario, compared to the detections in 2021. If an 80-station IMS network is used, the detections of 133 Xe in 2050 would range from 83% of the 2021 detection rate for the low-power scenario to 209% for the high-power scenario. Essentially no detections of 131m Xe and 133m Xe are expected. The high growth scenario could lead to a six-fold increase in 135 Xe detections, but the total number of detections is still small (on the order of 1 detection per day in the entire network).
Detecting shielded special nuclear material, such as nuclear explosives, is a difficult challenge pursued by non-proliferation, anti-terrorism, and nuclear security programs worldwide. Interrogation with intense fast-neutron pulses is a promising method to characterize concealed nuclear material rapidly but is limited by suitable source availability and proven instrumentation. In this study we have pioneered a demonstration of such an interrogation method using a high-intensity, short-pulse, laser-driven neutron source that offers potential benefits compared to conventional neutron sources. The measurement results reported here represent the first experimental demonstration of this interrogation approach on enriched uranium items and demonstrate the feasibility of a precise measurement using realistic nuclear materials, representative of field scenarios, even with just a single laser-driven neutron pulse. Bright pulsed sources can overcome the nuisance background of items with strong internal neutron sources, improving analytical power, while single-shot assay is attractive in high-throughput situations where time is at a premium. The science and technology of this type of neutron production is developing rapidly, and we anticipate that practical mobile interrogation systems will become available based on the detection concepts demonstrated here to meet the growing measurement needs.
The vast majority of nuclear weapon yield is generated in a regime of extreme temperature, pressure, and density. Without explosive nuclear testing, HED experiments on ICF facilities are the only way to approach and probe these extreme conditions that affect nuclear weapon performance.
The collision with earth of near-earth asteroids or comet nuclei poses a potential threat to mankind. Objects about 100 m in diameter could be diverted from an earth-crossing trajectory by the impact of a rocket-launched mass, but for larger bodies nuclear explosions seem to be the only practical means of deflection. Fragmentation of the body by nuclear charges is less efficient or secure.
To be presented at the 2021 NEM. The March 15-19, 2021 virtual Nuclear Explosion Monitoring (NEM) Program Review combines reviews of several related programs within the Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development (DNN R&D) of the National Nuclear Security Administration.
This project encompasses the continued development and training of a U.S. operational team, the Test Site Verification Team (TSVT), supporting verification of nuclear testing activities. TSVT builds on decades of U.S. nuclear testing history and nuclear explosion monitoring experience. The Team maintains readiness to deploy internationally on short notice to provide field-based support of verification of declared or undeclared nuclear testing and associated activities, as well as follow-on activities including monitoring and capability disablement and dismantlement, as established by negotiated agreement or treaty. The roles and structure of the TSVT are integrated with other NA-243 deployable verification teams and the interagency. FY23 TSVT activities focus on continued capability buildup within the team, including Team trainings and exercises with a focus on missions in confined spaces (e.g., tunnels, mines, other underground facilities), increased familiarity with foreign nuclear weapons testing programs, demonstration of Team capacity to deploy, train, and practice sustained OPSEC in non-western locations, establishment of sustainable storage and maintenance of equipment, specification and procurement of additional equipment to support field observations, further evolution of concepts of operation documents (CONOPs), and mission coordination with Headquarters and associated Stakeholders. Activities will culminate with a full-scale domestic team exercise at the end of FY23 focusing on underground activities signatures/observations and safety including advanced outdoor safety and familiarity in working around explosive test environments. In addition, we will be further articulating approaches and capacity relevant to the identification of nuclear tests, as well as monitoring of nuclear testing activities and/or dismantlement of nuclear test sites and anticipate developing additional equipment requests in support of this evolution. The TSVT Team Leads will also coordinate with its Senior Advisor, the TSVT Logistics and Readiness (L&R) Training Lead, and NNSA Headquarters to draft a five-year TSVT training and exercise plan, that strategically and incrementally builds capacity and expertise in key areas of significance for the continuum of nuclear and nuclear-related testing activities that fall within the team’s mission space.
We study spectra output from spatially proximal DPRK underground nuclear explosions from data challenged by several constraints.
I use crater dimensions to estimate the yield of the August 4th, 2020 Beirut explosion to be equivalent to approximately 1.4 kilotons of TNT with a lower bound of about 0.7 kilotons. Based on the amount of ammonium nitrate reported to have been stored at the Beirut harbor, I assume an upper bound for the yield of 2.75 kilotons. However, it is highly likely that the yield was less than 2.75 kilotons, since reported values for TNT equivalence of ammonium nitrate are typically much less than one hundred percent. The crater-size based yield estimates are based on crater radius estimates from satellite imagery and empirical curves and data for scaled crater radius from past chemical and nuclear explosions. I present evidence that suggests that the relatively large crater radius is due to a high degree of coupling of shock wave energy to the surrounding medium and a reduction of the effective stress because of a high level of saturation of the geologic media beneath the explosion. I provide yield estimates based on seismic body-wave magnitude and crater depth as corroborating evidence. I compare preliminary estimates for the maximum debris cloud height, based on cell phone videos/images, with predicted maximum heights for this yield range from empirical formulas and numerical cloud-rise models. Based on a preliminary analysis of cell phone footage, the observed maximum cloud height appears to be approximately 1600 m. This is much lower than that predicted using standard empirical formulas and buoyant cloud rise models. I present results from a modified buoyant cloud rise model that more accurately predicts the maximum cloud height by allowing for the inclusion of a fixed amount of air and/or water into the fireball at the start of cloud rise. The amount of mass that needs to be added at the start, to reproduce the observed maximum cloud height, is relatively small compared to the total mass entrained during cloud rise. A much greater amount of dry air or debris is required, relative to water, for an equivalent reduction in maximum cloud height. The ammonium nitrate is one possible source for water in the fireball since it was being stored in a very humid environment and ammonium nitrate is known to be hygroscopic. The ground beneath the explosion, especially if it were saturated, and the nearby harbor could also have been sources for water or debris in the fireball.