Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Natural Probabilities”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 163 records · Page 9

A high resolution CO map of M51

Observations of the CO (1-0) emission in two fields of M51 were taken with the Berkeley-Illinois-Maryland Array at Hat Creek, California from May 1988 to February 1989. When combined with two previously observed fields (Lo et al. 1988), a complete map of the central 5 minute x 4 minute at a resolution of 7 seconds x 10 seconds was obtained. The project is part of an ongoing high-resolution survey of the molecular, atomic, and ionized gas distributions in nearby spiral galaxies. The two recently observed fields can be compared to the results of the interferometric study of Vogel et al. (1988 - hereafter VKS). Since the shortest spacing in the current survey is shorter than that of VKS, researchers expect to see more of the extended emission. This is evident when comparing the width of the spiral arms in each survey; ours are a bit broader. While some of the peaks in this region correspond to the peaks in VKS, several of them do not. These discrepancies are probably because of the low signal to noise inherent in observations of this nature. Single-dish maps are currently being readied for inclusion with the interferometer data. These will help fill the short-spacing hole in the UV plane, and serve to recover the flux missing from the interferometer maps.

Adler, D. S.↗

Quantifying Methane Leak Emissions by Fused Airborne Imaging Spectroscopy with in Situ Surface Mobile and Airborne Observations of a California Producing Oil Field

Methane (CH4) emission budgets remain uncertain and are projected to grow as oil and gas production from short-lived wells increases and their subsequent transport through aging gas distribution networks. Orders-of-magnitude variations in temporal, spatial, and emission scales present a key challenge to leak detection and quantification. Also, the probability distributions for large and stochastic, leaky systems such as geological reservoirs (by natural migration-seeps) and petroleum production from those reservoirs remain largely unknown, needed to address current approach limitations. The scale of many petroleum systems favors remote sensing, but the sensitivity of such systems often precludes detection of weak emissions. Consequently, an accurate evaluation requires that the relative contribution from the emission "tails" of small leaks also be quantified, which is best carried out using high-sensitivity in situ methods. Fusion of remote sensing and in situ approaches leverages complementary capabilities to address these limitations. We show results from mobile surface (AMOG) and airborne in situ (AJAX) and thermal-infrared (TIR) hyperspectral imaging spectroscopy (Mako) data applied to a producing oil field in the California Central Valley near Bakersfield. AMOG is an automobile-based mobile lab that measures 13 trace gases, aerosol size distributions and vertical profiles, 3D winds and other meteorology, and atmospheric column measurements by solar spectroscopy at highway speeds. AJAX measures 5 trace gases and 3D winds at ~140 m/s. Mako is a broad-area TIR imaging spectrometer that can discriminate multiple gases present in each pixel acquired. In situ-derived, total field emissions were 31±16 Gg/yr CH4. This was compared with Mako-derived emissions from all plumes identified across the study site. We found that super-emitters were not the dominant emissions mode and the spatial pattern of plume locations from production infrastructure was correlated to geological structures.

Leifer, Ira↗

Assessing the effects of landcover and land use change on wildfire exposure and risk to communities and olive orchards in Mediterranean landscapes

A growing concern in the Mediterranean region is that recent landcover and land use change is increasing wildfire risk, or the exposure and impacts of wildfire to valued resources. However, the magnitude of these effects is not well understood given the widely diverse landscapes of communities, natural vegetation, and agricultural land. In this study, we use wildfire simulation modeling to assess how landcover and land use changes in three areas of southern Greece have affected exposure of- and fire risk to- communities and economically important permanent agriculture such as Olea europaea (European olive) orchards. We mapped agricultural and wildland fuel change from 2000 to 2020 and simulated fuel scenarios in agricultural land to assess the impacts of agricultural land practices, such as understory clearing, on fire risk. We show that wildfire exposure and risk to communities and permanent agriculture has increased in some areas due to natural fuel densification and decreased in other areas, mainly due to agricultural land expansion. These results highlight that wildfire exposure and risk are driven by local conditions including density and location of communities, spatial arrangement of natural fuels and agricultural land, and agricultural land use practices. Human settlement burn probability and modeled permanent crop loss increased with greater unmaintained agricultural area in all study areas, emphasizing the importance of agricultural land maintenance practices, such as understory clearing, to reduce fuel continuity and fire intensity. Ultimately, quantitative fire risk analyses such as this study provide a useful framework to identify areas of concern where either fuel mitigation or landowner incentives to maintain agricultural land in a less-burnable condition could be applied.

Aaron M Sparks↗

Rock 14318 - A polymict lunar breccia with chondritic texture

Rock 14318 is a complex microbreccia consisting of lithic fragments, chondrules, glass spherules, and glass and mineral fragments that are embedded into a fine-grained, partly glassy matrix. Compositions of lithic fragments, glasses and chondrules, in terms of compositional rock and rock suite equivalents, represent members of the ANT (anorthositic-noritic-troctolite) suite; the alkalic high-alumina basalt (KREEP) group; high-alkali quartz basalt; basalt; and dunite. The polymict nature of many lithic fragments suggests that rock 14318 requires at least two, and probably more, impact episodes for its formation. Final agglomeration took place while part of the material was hot, as is indicated by the welded texture, suggesting that the final impact event was a large one, producing a fiery cloud similar to a nuee ardente. The close similarity in texture of lunar rock 14318 to certain polymict-brecciated meteorites such as Siena suggests that meteorites of this type were also formed by complex and successive impact events on the surface of the meteorite parent body, rather than during agglomeration of the parent body.

Kurat, G.↗

Measurements of the stochastic nature of atmospheric spectral amplitudes

The stochastic nature of the power spectral amplitudes of the neutral atmospheric boundary layer is examined. Probability density distributions and probability distributions of longitudinal and lateral power spectra amplitudes are computed from neutral atmospheric boundary layers. The statistical distributions are computed for frequencies of 0.006, 0.01, 0.03, 0.06, 0.1, and 0.5 Hz at each of the elevations of 18, 30, 60, 90, 120, and 150 m. When the probability density distributions are properly nondimensionalized, the data tend to collapse to a universal curve. An empirical curve fit to the universal nondimensionalized probability density distribution is also given. Probability distributions of individual frequency power spectral amplitudes are also presented for all elevations and frequencies. An interesting observation from the data is that greater than 10 percent of the time the power spectral amplitude at a given frequency will genrally be more than three times the temporal mean value computed by standard Fourier techniques. The standard power spectral density curves are also included in the report.

Cliff, W. C.↗

Epsilon Aurigae

In April 1984, fourth contact ended the two year long eclipse of Epsilon Aurigae. An astrometric study of the study of the system was carried out by Van de kamp (1978) leading to the conclusion that the orbit is seen very close to edge on. The eclipse was monitored by a number of groups from the ground and from spacecraft such as the IUE. Ultraviolet observations of the system from IUE have thrown new light on the nature of the system that led to the conclusion that the secondary object is probably a cold, dusty accretion disk surrounding a star that is completely hidden inside the disk.

Chapman, R. D.↗

Radar investigation of asteroids

The number of radar detected asteroids has climbed from 6 to 40 (27 mainbelt plus 13 near-Earth). The dual-circular-polarization radar sample now comprises more than 1% of the numbered asteroids. Radar results for mainbelt asteroids furnish the first available information on the nature of these objects at macroscopic scales. At least one object (2 Pallas) and probably many others are extraordinarily smooth at centimeter-to-meter scales but are extremely rough at some scale between several meters and many kilometers. Pallas has essentially no small-scale structure within the uppermost several meters of the regolith, but the rms slope of this regolith exceeds 20 deg., much larger than typical lunar values (approx. 7 deg.). The origin of these slopes could be the hypervelocity impact cratering process, whose manifestations are likely to be different on low-gravity, low-radius-of-curvature objects from those on the terrestrial planets. The range of mainbelt asteroid radar albedoes is very broad and implies big variations in regolith porosity or metal concentration, or both. The highest albedo estimate, for 16 Psyche, is consistent with a surface having porosities typical of lunar soil and a composition nearly completely metallic. Therefore, Psyche might be the collisionally stripped core of a differentiated small plant, and might resemble mineralogically the parent bodies of iron meteorites.

Ostro, S. J.↗

Evaluation of the ERBE scene identification algo-rithm

The sensitivity of the radiation budget parameters and the scene selection process to different factors is evaluated. The use of ERB-7 CLE models provides instantaneous albedo and longwave flux values which are in essential agreement in the 70 deg cutoff case with those from the SAB method. The increase in albedo with increasing satellite zenith angle cutoff is not apparent at the target area level for different surface types. GOES models seem to show an increase in instantaneous albedo at the global level with satellite zenith angle of the same nature as the ERB-7 models investigated in a previous report and are, therefore, probably not an improvement. The use of recently derived NCLE models did not make a noticeable change in the budget parameters; but the cloud classification did show hemispherical differences and caused a day-night readjustment of cloudiness amounts. Preliminary results for an additional month (December 1979) indicate good agreement between the SAB and MLE methods. Additional work is required to establish the agreement for all seasons. Comparison of derived cloud amounts with other data sets such as THIR/TOMS indicates good zonal agreement. Sampling adequacy investigations at different temporal averaging intervals with the SAB method, indicate large uncertainties in small time average cases. For a 6-day averaging period, sampling is very poor with only 23% of the globe contributing toward the global mean albedo. Effect of modifications to the MLE procedure seem to have little effect on the derived budget quantities in an averaged sense. Significant differences in the flux values due to differences in scene selection are apparent in individual target areas studies. A modification of the MLE procedure to mimic the perpendicular bisector algorithm indicated no effect on the gross radiation budget quantities.

Vemury, S. K.↗

Mechanisms underlying the antimotion sickness effects of psychostimulants

Data related to the mechanism responsible for the antimotion sickness effects of psychostimulants such as amphetamine are examined. From the analysis of current literature and new evidence, the following three hypotheses are suggested: (1) selective enhancement of dopaminergic, but not noradrenergic, transmission is sufficient to account for amphetamine-induced resistance and, perhaps, for natural resistance to motion sickness; (2) the site of this enhanced dopaminergic transmission is probably within the basal ganglia; and (3) the neuropharmacology of the basal ganglia, but not of the brain-stem vestibular areas, can account for the therapeutic synergism of scopolamine and amphetamine. The therapeutic action of psychostimulants may be dissociable from some of their side effects, particularly cardiovascular effects related to peripheral norepinephrine release.

Kohl, Randall L.↗

Ockham's razor and Bayesian analysis

'Ockham's razor', the ad hoc principle enjoining the greatest possible simplicity in theoretical explanations, is presently shown to be justifiable as a consequence of Bayesian inference; Bayesian analysis can, moreover, clarify the nature of the 'simplest' hypothesis consistent with the given data. By choosing the prior probabilities of hypotheses, it becomes possible to quantify the scientific judgment that simpler hypotheses are more likely to be correct. Bayesian analysis also shows that a hypothesis with fewer adjustable parameters intrinsically possesses an enhanced posterior probability, due to the clarity of its predictions.

Jefferys, William H.↗

The origin of broad emission lines in the extragalactic giant H II region NGC 2363

High signal-to-noise long-slit spectra have been obtained of the giant H II region NGC 2363 located in the dwarf SBm galaxy NGC 2366. A discovery of low-intensity broad spectral components (FWHM is approximately equal to 40 A or 2400 km/s) in the bright nebular lines H-alpha, H-beta, and forbidden O III is reported. The broad spectral components are detected over a large spatial extent (not less than 500 pc) centered on the nebula. Several mechanisms for broadening nebular lines are explored: stellar winds, Thomson scattering by hot gas, supernova remnants, and superbubble blowout. All mechanisms have problems. Superbubble blowout, which is the only known mechanism capable of accelerating interstellar gas over such a volume of space, does not appear consistent with the physical properties of the H II region NGC 2363 or with the nature of the host galaxy. It is concluded that the broad nebular lines are probably due to very high velocity gas whose origin is, at present, unknown.

Roy, Jean-Rene↗

Probabilistic structural analysis algorithm development for computational efficiency

The PSAM (Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods) program is developing a probabilistic structural risk assessment capability for the SSME components. An advanced probabilistic structural analysis software system, NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress), is being developed as part of the PSAM effort to accurately simulate stochastic structures operating under severe random loading conditions. One of the challenges in developing the NESSUS system is the development of the probabilistic algorithms that provide both efficiency and accuracy. The main probability algorithms developed and implemented in the NESSUS system are efficient, but approximate in nature. In the last six years, the algorithms have improved very significantly.

Wu, Y.-T.↗

The Symbiotic System SS73 17 seen with Suzaku

We observed with Suzaku the symbiotic star SS73 17, motivated by the discovery by the INTEGRAL satellite and the Swift BAT survey that it emits hard X-rays. Our observations showed a highly-absorbed X-ray spectrum with NH > loz3 emp2, equivalent to Av > 26, although the source has B magnitude 11.3 and is also bright in UV. The source also shows strong, narrow iron lines including fluorescent Fe K as well as Fe xxv and Fe XXVI. The X-ray spectrum can be fit with a thermal model including an absorption component that partially covers the source. Most of the equivalent width of the iron fluorescent line in this model can be explained as a combination of reprocessing in a dense absorber plus reflection off a white dwarf surface, but it is likely that the continuum is partially seen in reflection as well. Unlike other symbiotic systems that show hard X-ray emission (CH Cyg, RT Cru, T CrB, GX1+4), SS73 17 is not known to have shown nova-like optical variability, X-ray flashes, or pulsations, and has always shown faint soft X-ray emission. As a result, although it is likely a white dwarf, the nature of the compact object in SS73 17 is still uncertain. SS73 17 is probably an extreme example of the recently discovered and relatively small class of hard X-ray emitting symbiotic systems.

Smith, Randall K.↗

Probabilistic Analysis of a Composite Crew Module

An approach for conducting reliability-based analysis (RBA) of a Composite Crew Module (CCM) is presented. The goal is to identify and quantify the benefits of probabilistic design methods for the CCM and future space vehicles. The coarse finite element model from a previous NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) project is used as the baseline deterministic analysis model to evaluate the performance of the CCM using a strength-based failure index. The first step in the probabilistic analysis process is the determination of the uncertainty distributions for key parameters in the model. Analytical data from water landing simulations are used to develop an uncertainty distribution, but such data were unavailable for other load cases. The uncertainty distributions for the other load scale factors and the strength allowables are generated based on assumed coefficients of variation. Probability of first-ply failure is estimated using three methods: the first order reliability method (FORM), Monte Carlo simulation, and conditional sampling. Results for the three methods were consistent. The reliability is shown to be driven by first ply failure in one region of the CCM at the high altitude abort load set. The final predicted probability of failure is on the order of 10-11 due to the conservative nature of the factors of safety on the deterministic loads.

FROM↗

Estimating the Risk of Renal Stone Events During Long-Duration Spaceflight

Introduction: Given the bone loss and increased urinary calcium excretion in the microgravity environment, persons participating in long-duration spaceflight may have an increased risk for renal stone formation. Renal stones are often an incidental finding of abdominal imaging studies done for other reasons. Thus, some crewmembers may have undiscovered, asymptomatic stones prior to their mission. Methods: An extensive literature search was conducted concerning the natural history of asymptomatic renal stones. For comparison, simulations were done using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The IMM is an evidence-based decision support tool that provides risk analysis and has the capability to optimize medical systems for missions by minimizing the occurrence of adverse mission outcomes such as evacuation and loss of crew life within specified mass and volume constraints. Results: The literature of the natural history of asymptomatic renal stones in the general medical population shows that the probability of symptomatic event is 8% to 34% at 1 to 3 years for stones < 7 mm. Extrapolated to a 6-month mission, for stones < 5 to 7 mm, the risk for any stone event is about 4 to 6%, with a 0.7% to 4% risk for intervention, respectively. IMM simulations compare favorably with risk estimates garnered from the terrestrial literature. The IMM forecasts that symptomatic renal stones may be one of the top drivers for medical evacuation of an International Space Station (ISS) mission. Discussion: Although the likelihood of a stone event is low, the consequences could be severe due to limitations of current ISS medical capabilities. Therefore, these risks need to be quantified to aid planning, limit crew morbidity and mitigate mission impacts. This will be especially critical for missions beyond earth orbit, where evacuation may not be an option.

Reyes, David↗

Estimating the Risk of Renal Stone Events during Long-Duration Spaceflight

Introduction: Given the bone loss and increased urinary calcium excretion in the microgravity environment, persons participating in long-duration spaceflight may have an increased risk for renal stone formation. Renal stones are often an incidental finding of abdominal imaging studies done for other reasons. Thus, some crewmembers may have undiscovered, asymptomatic stones prior to their mission. Methods: An extensive literature search was conducted concerning the natural history of asymptomatic renal stones. For comparison, simulations were done using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The IMM is an evidence-based decision support tool that provides risk analysis and has the capability to optimize medical systems for missions by minimizing the occurrence of adverse mission outcomes such as evacuation and loss of crew life within specified mass and volume constraints. Results: The literature of the natural history of asymptomatic renal stones in the general medical population shows that the probability of symptomatic event is 8% to 34% at 1 to 3 years for stones < 7 mm. Extrapolated to a 6-month mission, for stones < 5 to 7 mm, the risk for any stone event is about 4 to 6%, with a 0.7% to 4% risk for intervention, respectively. IMM simulations compare favorably with risk estimates garnered from the terrestrial literature. The IMM forecasts that symptomatic renal stones may be one of the top drivers for medical evacuation of an International Space Station (ISS) mission. Discussion: Although the likelihood of a stone event is low, the consequences could be severe due to limitations of current ISS medical capabilities. Therefore, these risks need to be quantified to aid planning, limit crew morbidity and mitigate mission impacts. This will be especially critical for missions beyond earth orbit, where evacuation may not be an option.

Reyes, David↗

Lunar geothermal power - Some problems and potentials

Power from geothermal deposits on earth is an established fact, with plant capacities ranging from a few kilowatts to several hundred megawatts. The increasing evidence for contemporary volcanic and fumarolic activity on the moon lends strong support to the validity of the concepts of utilizing geothermal fluids as a source of lunar power. Geothermal energy, whatever the size of installation desired, will probably not be an energy source during early exploratory operations, because of the inherent uncertainty in developing natural resources. On the other hand, the attractiveness of geothermal concepts with their abundant potential for byproduct fuel and life-support production, plus the potential for large continuous power outputs, suggests chat the location and testing of areas of geothermal potential should be an early goa] for lunar exploration efforts. This paper briefly describes the chemical and structural properties of geothermal deposits and outlines the differences expected between lunar and terrestrial deposits and their surface expressions. The problems of finding geothermal deposits, and of then deciding upon the probable subsurface exploitive testing for initial production are suggested and the problems inherent in large-scale geothermal development and utilization are indicated.

ENERGY SOURCE↗

Effects of Natural Variability on the Use of Standard Deviation to Represent Measurement Uncertainties in Atmospheric Composition Studies

Measurement uncertainty is defined as a “non-negative parameter characterizing the dispersion of the quantity values being attributed to a measurand”. It is most common that the uncertainties of GAW hourly measurements, such as greenhouse gas measurements, are reported as standard deviations derived from individual sampling at a higher time resolution (e.g., 1 min). In contrast, the uncertainties of GAW measurements of reactive gases and aerosol properties are reported in percentiles covering the same probability. A quick look at hourly CO 2 data from Cape Grim, Australia yielded some interesting findings: the hourly standard deviation is, on average, more than a factor of 10 higher for the measurements under non-background conditions (over 50% observations), while the difference in average CO 2 amount fraction was less than 2 ppm. The dramatic contrast cannot be explained by the difference in measurement uncertainties, but can largely be attributed the natural variability, or episodic ambient CO 2 variation reflecting changes in meteorological conditions or emissions. These initial findings motivated a more in-depth analysis of the ground-based measurements of trace gases and aerosol properties. This analysis will be using continuous 1 min ground site observations to construct time averaged statistical indicators to evaluate whether the standard deviation is adequate to represent the dispersion, especially under marked influence by natural variability. The suitability of this representation can be determined by examining the difference between the standard deviation and percentiles encompassing the same probability. We will examine time intervals of 1 hour, 3 hours, and 24 hours, with the latter time intervals chosen to match those commonly used in model assessments. We will also investigate how natural variability can alter the probability distribution of the measurands and how adequate the quadrature propagation of uncertainties is under these conditions. The results will include several trace gases (e.g., CO 2 , CO, O 3 , and NO 2 ) with a range of measurement techniques (e.g., PANDORA, in situ), atmospheric lifetimes, and aerosol properties (e.g. scattering coefficient). The findings from this analysis should provide some useful feedback on the best practices for uncertainty reporting.

Measurement Uncertainty↗