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DOE OSTI2021

Cross-national analysis of food security drivers: comparing results based on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale and Global Food Security Index

Abstract The second UN Sustainable Development Goal establishes food security as a priority for governments, multilateral organizations, and NGOs. These institutions track national-level food security performance with an array of metrics and weigh intervention options considering the leverage of many possible drivers. We studied the relationships between several candidate drivers and two response variables based on prominent measures of national food security: the 2019 Global Food Security Index (GFSI) and the Food Insecurity Experience Scale’s (FIES) estimate of the percentage of a nation’s population experiencing food security or mild food insecurity (FI ). We compared the contributions of explanatory variables in regressions predicting both response variables, and we further tested the stability of our results to changes in explanatory variable selection and in the countries included in regression model training and testing. At the cross-national level, the quantity and quality of a nation’s agricultural land were not predictive of either food security metric. We found mixed evidence that per-capita cereal production, per-hectare cereal yield, an aggregate governance metric, logistics performance, and extent of paid employment work were predictive of national food security. Household spending as measured by per-capita final consumption expenditure (HFCE) was consistently the strongest driver among those studied, alone explaining a median of 92% and 70% of variation (based on out-of-sample R 2 ) in GFSI and FI , respectively. The relative strength of HFCE as a predictor was observed for both response variables and was independent of the countries used for model training, the transformations applied to the explanatory variables prior to model training, and the variable selection technique used to specify multivariate regressions. The results of this cross-national analysis reinforce previous research supportive of a causal mechanism where, in the absence of exceptional local factors, an increase in income drives increase in food security. However, the strength of this effect varies depending on the countries included in regression model fitting. We demonstrate that using multiple response metrics, repeated random sampling of input data, and iterative variable selection facilitates a convergence of evidence approach to analyzing food security drivers.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Spatial Asymmetries in Teleconnected Extreme Temperatures

Abstract Combining strengths from deep learning and extreme value theory can help describe complex relationships between variables where extreme events have significant impacts (e.g., environmental or financial applications). Neural networks learn complicated nonlinear relationships from large datasets under limited parametric assumptions. By definition, the number of occurrences of extreme events is small, which limits the ability of the data-hungry, nonparametric neural network to describe rare events. Inspired by recent extreme cold winter weather events in North America caused by atmospheric blocking, we examine several probabilistic generative models for the entire multivariate probability distribution of daily boreal winter surface air temperature. We propose metrics to measure spatial asymmetries, such as long-range anticorrelated patterns that commonly appear in temperature fields during blocking events. Compared to vine copulas, the statistical standard for multivariate copula modeling, deep learning methods show improved ability to reproduce complicated asymmetries in the spatial distribution of ERA5 temperature reanalysis, including the spatial extent of in-sample extreme events.

Krock, Mitchell L.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Method Optimization for Sampling and Analysis Instrumentation

This work presents a generalized approach for analytical method optimization that branches the gap between techniques historically employed and accurate modern optimization techniques suitable for various applications. The novelty of the described strategy is the utilization of multivariate, multiobjective optimization with Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions to bound the optimization space to solutions within the physical limitations of instrumentation. Briefly, the basic steps outlined in this paper are to (1) determine the objective(s) that should be maximized or minimized based on the goals of the analytical application, (2) conduct a screening experiment, (3) perform ANOVA to determine the parameters which have a statistically significant effect on the objective, (4) conduct an experiment (e.g., Box-Behnken design) to collect data for fitting the objective equation, and (5) determine the physical constraints of the parameters and solve the Lagrangian to determine the optimal method parameters. A broad approach to optimization target selection allows for robust method tuning to develop improved data sets amenable for chemometrics and machine learning algorithm development. Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry was selected as a use case due to its broad use across scientific fields and time-consuming method development involving numerous parameters. In conclusion, this strategy can reduce the cost of research, improve data quality, and enable the rapid development of new analytical technique.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1982

Conic Sector Analysis of Hybrid Control Systems

A hybrid control system contains an analog plant and a hybrid (or sampled-data) compensator. In this thesis a new conic sector is determined which is constructive and can be used to: (1) determine closed loop stability, (2) analyze robustness with respect to modelling uncertainties, (3) analyze steady state response to commands, and (4) select the sample rate. The use of conic sectors allows the designer to treat hybrid control systems as though they were analog control systems. The center of the conic sector can be used as a rigorous linear time invariant approximation of the hybrid control system, and the radius places a bound on the errors of this approximation. The hybrid feedback system can be multivariable, and the sampler is assumed to be synchronous. Algorithms to compute the conic sector are presented. Several examples demonstrate how the conic sector analysis techniques are applied. Extensions to single loop multirate hybrid feedback systems are presented. Further extensions are proposed for multiloop multirate hybrid feedback system and for single rate systems with asynchronous sampling.

Thompson, P. M.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Observation of Same-Sign W W Production from Double Parton Scattering in Proton-Proton Collisions at s = 13 TeV

The first observation of the production of W$^\pm$W$^\pm$ bosons from double parton scattering processes using same-sign electron-muon and dimuon events in proton-proton collisions is reported. The data sample corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb$^{-1}$ recorded at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV using the CMS detector at the CERN LHC. Multivariate discriminants are used to distinguish the signal process from the main backgrounds. A binned maximum likelihood fit is performed to extract the signal cross section. The measured cross section for production of same-sign W bosons decaying leptonically is 80.7 $\pm$ 11.2 (stat) $^{+9.5}_{-8.6}$ (syst) $\pm$ 12.1 (model) fb, whereas the measured fiducial cross section is 6.28 $\pm$ 0.81 (stat) $\pm$ 0.69 (syst) $\pm$ 0.37 (model) fb. The observed significance of the signal is 6.2 standard deviations above the background-only hypothesis.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Application of Principal Component Analysis to Electrochemical Reprocessing PM and NMAC

In this report, data from an electrorefiner (ER) for nuclear fuel reprocessing is evaluated for process monitoring (PM) conclusions. This data comes from tests performed at the Idaho National Laboratory in 2022. Multivariate approaches utilizing methods of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is applied. This is based off established work in process monitoring for fault detection in industrial facilities. This report will discuss the background, methods, and results of the application and some of the conclusions and applications that can be drawn from them. PCA is applied to two different electrorefiner (ER) operations that occurred at Idaho National Laboratory between August and October 2022. The first operation occurred with little incident while the second had several noted faults in the equipment in operational logs. The data from the first run was used to train the data for “normal” operations and applied to both sets of data to determine when operations were in an “off-normal” condition and identify where the fault occurs through PCA. PCA was able to identify off-normal events and identify the cause for off-normal operations. These identified off-normal events matched with the events and their causes in the operational logs. However, small amounts of variance in the data led to false detection of “off-normal” events. Thus, careful selection of training data and a-posteriori conclusions based off operator assessments will both be required for application of PCA to PM applications. This work demonstrated that multivariate approaches and latent variables are applicable to pyroprocessing PM applications and can be further expanded in future work as quality variables such as salt concentration from sensors and sampling become available.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS1995

The second-moment climatology of the GATE rain rate data

The first part of this paper presents the description of the GARP (Global Atmospheric Research Program) Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) 1 rain-rate data and its two-dimensional spectral and correlation characteristics, which has made it possible to accomplish the following: to show the concentration of a significant power along the frequency axis in the spatiotemporal spectra; to detect a diurnal cycle (which has a range of variation of about 3.4-5.4 mm/n) as one of the sources of bias in the rain statistics of satellite data; to study the distinction between the north-south and east-west transport of spatial rain-rate field and character of its anisotropy; to evaluate the scales of the distinction between second-moment estimates associated with ground and satellite samples; and to determine the appropriate spatial and temporal scales of simple linear stochastic models fitted to averaged rain-rate fields. The second part of this paper is devoted to an analysis of the diffusion of the rain rate by establishing a relationship between the parameters of the multivariate autoregressive model and the coefficients of a diffusion equation. This analysis led to the use of rain data to estimate the rain advection velocity as well as other coefficients of the diffusion equation of the corresponding field. The results obtained can be used for comparison with corresponding estimates of other sources of data (satellite, Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean - Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA, COARE) or simulated by physical models), for generating multiple samples of any size, for solving the inverse problems of some of the hydrodynamic equations, and in some other areas of rain data analysis and modeling.

Polyak, Ilya↗

NASA NTRS1994

Arm structure in normal spiral galaxies, 1: Multivariate data for 492 galaxies

Multivariate data have been collected as part of an effort to develop a new classification system for spiral galaxies, one which is not necessarily based on subjective morphological properties. A sample of 492 moderately bright northern Sa and Sc spirals was chosen for future statistical analysis. New observations were made at 20 and 21 cm; the latter data are described in detail here. Infrared Astronomy Satellite (IRAS) fluxes were obtained from archival data. Finally, new estimates of arm pattern radomness and of local environmental harshness were compiled for most sample objects.

Magri, Christopher↗

NASA NTRS1995

Chemical studies of H chondrites. 4: New data and comparison of Antarctic suites

We report data for the trace elements Au, Co, Sb, Ga, Rb, Ag, Se, Cs, Te, Zn, Cd, Bi, Ti, and In (ordered by putative volatility during nebular condensation and accretion) determined by neutron activation analysis in 13 H5 chondrites from Victoria Land and 20 H4-6 chondrites from Queen Maud Land, Antarctica. These and earlier results provide Antarctic sample suites of 34 chondrites from Victoria Land and 25 from Queen Maud Land. Treatment of data for the most volatile 10 elements (Rb to In) in these studies by multivariate statistical techniques more robust, as well as more conservative, than conventional linear discriminant analysis and logistic regression demonstrates that compositions differ at marginally significant levels. This difference cannot be explained by trivial (terrestrial) causes and becomes more significant, despite the smaller size of the database, when comparisons are limited to data from a single analyst and when all upper limits are eliminated from consideration. The Victoria Land and Queen Maud Land suites have different mean terrestrial ages (approximately 300 kyr and approximately 100 kyr, respectively) and age distributions, suggesting that a time-dependent variation of chondritic sources with different thermal histories is responsible. As a result, these two Antarctic suites are, on average, chemically distinguishable from each other. Since H chondrites serve as a paradigm for other meteorite classes, these results indicate that the near-Earth populations of planetary materials varied with time on the 10(exp 5)-year timescale.

Wolf, Stephen F.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Robustness properties of discrete time regulators, LOG regulators and hybrid systems

Robustness properites of sample-data LQ regulators are derived which show that these regulators have fundamentally inferior uncertainty tolerances when compared to their continuous-time counterparts. Results are also presented in stability theory, multivariable frequency domain analysis, LQG robustness, and mathematical representations of hybrid systems.

Stein, G.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Multivariate Statistical Inference of Lightning Occurrence, and Using Lightning Observations

Two classes of multivariate statistical inference using TRMM Lightning Imaging Sensor, Precipitation Radar, and Microwave Imager observation are studied, using nonlinear classification neural networks as inferential tools. The very large and globally representative data sample provided by TRMM allows both training and validation (without overfitting) of neural networks with many degrees of freedom. In the first study, the flashing / or flashing condition of storm complexes is diagnosed using radar, passive microwave and/or environmental observations as neural network inputs. The diagnostic skill of these simple lightning/no-lightning classifiers can be quite high, over land (above 80% Probability of Detection; below 20% False Alarm Rate). In the second, passive microwave and lightning observations are used to diagnose radar reflectivity vertical structure. A priori diagnosis of hydrometeor vertical structure is highly important for improved rainfall retrieval from either orbital radars (e.g., the future Global Precipitation Mission "mothership") or radiometers (e.g., operational SSM/I and future Global Precipitation Mission passive microwave constellation platforms), we explore the incremental benefit to such diagnosis provided by lightning observations.

Boccippio, Dennis↗

NASA NTRS2010

Parametric Cost Models for Space Telescopes

A study is in-process to develop a multivariable parametric cost model for space telescopes. Cost and engineering parametric data has been collected on 30 different space telescopes. Statistical correlations have been developed between 19 variables of 59 variables sampled. Single Variable and Multi-Variable Cost Estimating Relationships have been developed. Results are being published.

Stahl, H. Philip↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantification of manganese for ChemCam Mars and laboratory spectra using a multivariate model

In this work, we report a new calibration model for manganese using the laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy instrument that is part of the ChemCam instrument suite onboard the NASA Curiosity rover. The model has been trained using an expanded set of 523 manganese-bearing rock, mineral, metal ore, and synthetic standards. The optimal calibration model uses the Partial Least Squares (PLS) and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) multivariate techniques, with a novel “double blending” technique. We determined the detection limit for manganese is 82 ppm using a method blank procedure and is possibly as low as 27 ppm based on visual inspection of the spectra. Based on a representative test set consisting of measurements on 93 standards, the double blended multivariate model shows a Root Mean Squared Error of Prediction (RMSEP) accuracy of 1.39 wt% MnO for the full blended model. Employing a local RMSEP estimate where the model performance is evaluated based on nearby test samples, the accuracy is 0.03 wt% at the quantification limit (0.05 wt% MnO), 0.4 wt% accuracy at 1.0 wt% MnO, and 4.4 wt% accuracy at 100 wt% MnO. Precision is estimated using the standard deviation of the test set measurements, and is ±0.01 wt% MnO at the quantification limit, ±0.09 wt% MnO at 1.0 wt% MnO, and ± 2.1 wt% MnO at 100 wt% MnO (all 1 standard deviation). This new calibration is important for understanding the variation of manganese in the bedrock with the Curiosity rover on Mars, which provides insight into past redox conditions on Mars.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1975

A method of using cluster analysis to study statistical dependence in multivariate data

A technique is presented that uses both cluster analysis and a Monte Carlo significance test of clusters to discover associations between variables in multidimensional data. The method is applied to an example of a noisy function in three-dimensional space, to a sample from a mixture of three bivariate normal distributions, and to the well-known Fisher's Iris data.

Borucki, W. J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Measurement of lepton universality parameters in B + → K + ℓ + ℓ – and B 0 → K* 0 ℓ + ℓ – decays

A simultaneous analysis of the B + → K + ℓ + ℓ – and B 0 → K* 0 ℓ + ℓ – decays is performed to test muon-electron universality in two ranges of the square of the dilepton invariant mass, q 2 . The measurement uses a sample of beauty meson decays produced in proton-proton collisions collected with the LHCb detector between 2011 and 2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 9 fb –1 . A sequence of multivariate selections and strict particle identification requirements produce a higher signal purity and a better statistical sensitivity per unit luminosity than previous LHCb lepton universality tests using the same decay modes. Residual backgrounds due to misidentified hadronic decays are studied using data and included in the fit model. Each of the four lepton universality measurements reported is either the first in the given q 2 interval or supersedes previous LHCb measurements. The results are compatible with the predictions of the Standard Model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Aluminum hydroxide, bayerite, boehmite, and gibbsite ToF-SIMS spectra in the negative ion mode. I

We report time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS) was performed for boehmite (AOH-60) and its potential products of oxidation including pseudo-boehmite (AOH-180), α- and γ-Al 2 O 3 , and α- and γ-Al(OH) 3 . Since boehmite is often incorporated on cladding materials to prevent corrosion, surface analysis techniques are performed to determine the amount of oxidation present. This ToF-SIMS spectral library is of significance because it includes boehmite and its potential oxidation products (i.e., aluminum oxide and hydroxide), which can be used to compare to spectra obtained for real-world samples containing boehmite. Furthermore, ToF-SIMS is often used as a complementary technique to x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy due to its surface sensitivity and ability to compare spectra via a multivariate analysis, therefore establishing that the molecular signatures of boehmite and relevant compounds are essential for peak identification. The SIMS spectra shown are acquired from commercially available powders, which were deposited onto a silicon wafer substrate via liquid slurry drop casting. This library of SIMS mass spectra will serve as a comparison of boehmite [γ-AlO(OH)], pseudo-boehmite [AlOOH∙nH 2 O], α- and γ-Al 2 O 3 aluminum oxide, and α- and γ-Al 2 O 3 aluminum hydroxide in the negative ion mode, which compliments those reported in the positive ion mode.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Aluminum hydroxide, bayerite, boehmite, and gibbsite ToF-SIMS spectra in the positive ion mode. II

We report time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS) was performed for boehmite (AOH-60) and its potential products of oxidation including pseudo-boehmite (AOH-180), α- and γ-Al 2 O 3 , and α- and γ-Al(OH) 3 . Since boehmite often forms on the cladding materials to prevent corrosion, surface analysis techniques are performed to determine the amount of oxidation present. This ToF-SIMS spectral library is of significance because it includes boehmite and its potential oxidation products (i.e., aluminum oxide and hydroxide), which can be used to compare to spectra obtained for real-world samples containing boehmite. Furthermore, ToF-SIMS is often used as a complementary technique to x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) due to its surface sensitivity and ability to compare spectra via multivariate analysis, therefore establishing the molecular signatures of boehmite and relevant compounds are essential for peak identification. The SIMS spectra shown are acquired from commercially available powders, which were deposited onto a Si wafer substrate via liquid slurry drop casting. This library of SIMS mass spectra will serve as a comparison of boehmite [γ-AlO(OH)], pseudo-boehmite [AlOOH∙nH 2 O], α- and γ-Al 2 O 3 aluminum oxide, and α- and γ-Al 2 O 3 aluminum hydroxide in the positive ion mode, which compliments those reported in the negative ion mode (Part 1).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2007

Transport in the Subtropical Lowermost Stratosphere during CRYSTAL-FACE

We use in situ measurements of water vapor (H2O), ozone (O3), carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), nitric oxide (NO), and total reactive nitrogen (NO(y)) obtained during the CRYSTAL-FACE campaign in July 2002 to study summertime transport in the subtropical lowermost stratosphere. We use an objective methodology to distinguish the latitudinal origin of the sampled air masses despite the influence of convection, and we calculate backward trajectories to elucidate their recent geographical history. The methodology consists of exploring the statistical behavior of the data by performing multivariate clustering and agglomerative hierarchical clustering calculations, and projecting cluster groups onto principal component space to identify air masses of like composition and hence presumed origin. The statistically derived cluster groups are then examined in physical space using tracer-tracer correlation plots. Interpretation of the principal component analysis suggests that the variability in the data is accounted for primarily by the mean age of air in the stratosphere, followed by the age of the convective influence, and lastly by the extent of convective influence, potentially related to the latitude of convective injection [Dessler and Sherwuud, 2004]. We find that high-latitude stratospheric air is the dominant source region during the beginning of the campaign while tropical air is the dominant source region during the rest of the campaign. Influence of convection from both local and non-local events is frequently observed. The identification of air mass origin is confirmed with backward trajectories, and the behavior of the trajectories is associated with the North American monsoon circulation.

Pittman, Jasna V.↗