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At least 163 records · Page 9

SPHINX: A Generalized Tool for Solar Energetic Particle Model Validation

The Integrated Solar Energetic Proton Alert/Warning (ISEP) project was established to aid in the transition of SEP models from the research realm to operational use. This project is a collaboration between the NASA Community Coordinated Model Center (CCMC), the NASA Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office (M2M) and the NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG). Through ISEP, the SEP Scoreboards (Intensity, Probability, and All Clear) were developed to visualize real time forecasts from SEP models for use in SRAG operations. To accomplish this, SRAG, CCMC, and M2M work closely with modelers on model development, CCMC works on Scoreboard implementation, and M2M provides human-in-the-loop space weather analysis and ensures that models run in real time.

space weather↗

Cryo-EM model validation recommendations based on outcomes of the 2019 EMDataResource challenge

This paper describes outcomes of the 2019 Cryo-EM Model Challenge. The goals were to (1) assess the quality of models that can be produced from cryogenic electron microscopy (cryo-EM) maps using current modeling software, (2) evaluate reproducibility of modeling results from different software developers and users and (3) compare performance of current metrics used for model evaluation, particularly Fit-to-Map metrics, with focus on near-atomic resolution. Our findings demonstrate the relatively high accuracy and reproducibility of cryo-EM models derived by 13 participating teams from four benchmark maps, including three forming a resolution series (1.8 to 3.1 Å). The results permit specific recommendations to be made about validating near-atomic cryo-EM structures both in the context of individual experiments and structure data archives such as the Protein Data Bank. We recommend the adoption of multiple scoring parameters to provide full and objective annotation and assessment of the model, reflective of the observed cryo-EM map density.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Model Validation Database for Fires Involving Fuels at Liquefied Natural Gas Facilities

This document provides a description of the model evaluation protocol (MEP) database for fires involving liquefied natural gas (LNG) and processing fuels at LNG facilities. The purpose of the MEP is to provide procedures regarding the assessment of a model's suitability to predict thermal exclusion zones resulting from a fire. The database includes measurements from pool fire, jet fire, and fireball experiments which are provided in a spreadsheet. Users are to enter model results into the spreadsheet which automatically generates statistical performance measures and graphical comparisons with the experimental data. The intent of this document is to provide a description of the experiments and of the procedure required to carry out the validation portion of the MEP. In addition, the statistical performance measures, measurements for comparisons, and parameter variation are provided.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

3D CFD Model Validation Using Benchmark Data of 1/16th Scaled VHTR Upper Plenum and Development of Wall Heat-Transfer Correlation For Laminar Flow

With support from the U.S. Department of Energy-Office of Nuclear Energy’s (DOE-NE’s) Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, an effort has been pursued to support high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) technology development and its modeling and simulation needs. There is a particular need for advanced modeling and simulation tools to predict thermal-fluid behavior in the nuclear reactor primary system, especially in the core and the lower and upper plena, during safety-related transients. In this report, two main such activities are presented relevant to the HTGRs: (1) three-dimensional (3D) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) validation using benchmark data from the upper plenum of Texas A&M University’s 1/16th scaled very-high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (VHTR), and (2) development of wall heat-transfer correlation for laminar flow in a wall-heated pipe. The CFD tool validation exercises can be helpful to choose the models and CFD tools to simulate and design specific components of the HTRGs such as upper plenum where jet mixing is a complex phenomenon. In a loss of forced circulation event, the laminar flow can be observed during the development of natural circulation flow. This work includes the development and validation of heat transfer correlations for laminar flow using the Nek5000 CFD code due to limited available experimental data for laminar flow conditions to guide low-order models (1D). In this report, the flow characteristics of a single isothermal jet discharging into the upper plenum was investigated using the Nek5000 Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) CFD tool. Several numerical simulations were performed for various jet-discharged Reynolds numbers ranging from 3,413 to 12,819. A grid-independent study was performed. The numerical results of mean velocity, root-mean-square fluctuating velocity, and Reynolds stress were compared against the benchmark data. Good agreement was obtained between simulated and measured data for axial mean velocities, except near the upper plenum hemisphere. The maximum predicted errors for axial mean velocities at various normalized coolant channel diameter heights of 1, 5, and 10 are 1.56%, 1.88%, and 3.82%, respectively. In addition, the predicted root-mean-square fluctuating velocity and Reynolds stress are qualitatively in agreement with the experimental data. The Nek5000 code was used to develop wall-heat transfer correlation for laminar flow in a cylindrical tube. Several simulations were performed for various Reynolds flow and wall-heat fluxes. A new heat transfer correlation was developed using data from Nek5000 simulation results and regression functions in Matlab. The developed heat transfer correlation is valid for various Reynolds flows from 200 to 2000. The predicted R² value for model fit was 0.875, which ensures that 87.5% of the model data lies on the Nek5000 data. Moreover, a machine learning (ML) tool was used to train and test the Nek5000 data. A good fit of the ML-based model was observed with the test data.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

HelioScope Energy Performance Modeling Validation: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-17-00685

HelioScope is a unique solar design and energy performance modeling tool that bridges the worlds of research and industry, bringing the most rigorous methods from the performance modeling community to thousands of solar developers of all backgrounds. However, many financial institutions and municipalities are hesitant to accept the energy production modeling results of HelioScope (including shading losses) in place of costly, time-intensive, and/or redundant methods due to lack of vetting from a respected institution like NREL. We expect that the proposed validation exercises will give municipalities and financial institutions the comfort needed to incorporate HelioScope into their operations, thereby significantly reducing the needs of existing and potential HelioScope users' to otherwise obtain information that HelioScope produces automatically. Folsom Labs was selected for a Small Business Voucher from the U.S. Department of Energy for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to validate the performance of HelioScope’s simulation engine against measured PV system performance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Model Validation Database for Fires Involving Fuels at Liquefied Natural Gas Facilities (Version 2)

This document provides a description of the model evaluation protocol (MEP) database for fires involving liquefied natural gas (LNG) and processing fuels at LNG facilities. The purpose of the MEP is to provide procedures regarding the assessment of a model’s suitability to predict thermal exclusion zones resulting from a fire. The database includes measurements from pool fire, jet fire, and fireball experiments which are provided in a spreadsheet. Users are to enter model results into the spreadsheet which automatically generates statistical performance measures and graphical comparisons with the experimental data. The intent of this document is to provide a description of the experiments and of the procedure required to carry out the validation portion of the MEP. In addition, the statistical performance measures, measurements for comparisons, and parameter variation are provided.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Spectrally Resolved Flux Derived from Collocated AIRS and CERES Observations and its Application in Model Validation: Clear-Sky Over the Tropic Oceans - Part I

Spectrally resolved outgoing IR flux, the integrand of the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), has its unique value in evaluating model simulations. Here we describe an algorithm of deriving such clear-sky outgoing spectral flux through the whole IR region from the collocated Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and the Clouds & the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) measurements over the tropical oceans. Based on the scene types and corresponding angular distribution models (ADMs) used in the CERES Single Satellite Footprint (SSF) dataset, spectrally-dependent ADMs are developed and used to estimate the spectral flux at each AIRS channel. A multivariate linear prediction scheme is then used to estimate spectral fluxes at frequencies not covered by the AIRS instrument. The whole algorithm is validated using synthetic spectra as well as the CERES OLR measurements. Using the GFDL AM2 model simulation as a case study, the application of the derived clear-sky outgoing spectral flux in model evaluation is illustrated. By comparing the observed and simulated spectral flux in 2004, compensating errors in the simulated OLR from different absorption bands can be revealed, so does the errors from frequencies within a given absorption band. Discrepancies between the simulated and observed spatial distributions and seasonal evolutions of the spectral fluxes at different spectral ranges are further discussed. The methodology described in this study can be applied to other surface types as well as cloudy-sky observations and corresponding model evaluations.

Huang, Xianglei↗

Quantification of Dynamic Model Validation Metrics Using Uncertainty Propagation from Requirements

The Space Launch System, NASA's new large launch vehicle for long range space exploration, is presently in the final design and construction phases, with the first launch scheduled for 2019. A dynamic model of the system has been created and is critical for calculation of interface loads and natural frequencies and mode shapes for guidance, navigation, and control (GNC). Because of the program and schedule constraints, a single modal test of the SLS will be performed while bolted down to the Mobile Launch Pad just before the first launch. A Monte Carlo and optimization scheme will be performed to create thousands of possible models based on given dispersions in model properties and to determine which model best fits the natural frequencies and mode shapes from modal test. However, the question still remains as to whether this model is acceptable for the loads and GNC requirements. An uncertainty propagation and quantification (UP and UQ) technique to develop a quantitative set of validation metrics that is based on the flight requirements has therefore been developed and is discussed in this paper. There has been considerable research on UQ and UP and validation in the literature, but very little on propagating the uncertainties from requirements, so most validation metrics are "rules-of-thumb;" this research seeks to come up with more reason-based metrics. One of the main assumptions used to achieve this task is that the uncertainty in the modeling of the fixed boundary condition is accurate, so therefore that same uncertainty can be used in propagating the fixed-test configuration to the free-free actual configuration. The second main technique applied here is the usage of the limit-state formulation to quantify the final probabilistic parameters and to compare them with the requirements. These techniques are explored with a simple lumped spring-mass system and a simplified SLS model. When completed, it is anticipated that this requirements-based validation metric will provide a quantified confidence and probability of success for the final SLS dynamics model, which will be critical for a successful launch program, and can be applied in the many other industries where an accurate dynamic model is required.

Brown, Andrew M.↗

Atmospheric Transmittance Model Validation for CSP Tower Plants

In yield analysis and plant design of concentrated solar power (CSP) tower plants, increased uncertainties are caused by the mostly unknown solar attenuation between the concentrating heliostat field and the receiver on top of the tower. This attenuation is caused mainly by aerosol particles and water vapor. Various on-site measurement methods of atmospheric extinction in solar tower plants have been developed during recent years, but during resource assessment for distinct tower plant projects in-situ measurement data sets are typically not available. To overcome this lack of information, a transmittance model (TM) has been previously developed and enhanced by the authors to derive the atmospheric transmittance between a heliostat and receiver on the basis of common direct normal irradiance (DNI), temperature, relative humidity and barometric pressure measurements. Previously the model was only tested at one site. In this manuscript, the enhanced TM is validated for three sites (CIEMAT’s Plataforma Solar de Almería (PSA), Spain, Missour, Morocco (MIS) and Zagora, Morocco (ZAG)). As the strongest assumption in the TM is the vertical aerosol particle profile, three different approaches to describe the vertical profile are tested in the TM. One approach assumes a homogeneous aerosol profile up to 1 kilometer above ground, the second approach is based on LIVAS profiles obtained from Lidar measurements and the third approach uses boundary layer height (BLH) data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The derived broadband transmittance for a slant range of 1 km (T 1$km$ ) time series is compared with a reference data set of on-site absorption- and broadband corrected T 1$km$ derived from meteorological optical range (MOR) measurements for the temporal period between January 2015 and November 2017. The absolute mean bias error (MBE) for the TM’s T 1$km$ using the three different aerosol profiles lies below 5% except for ZAG and one profile assumption. The MBE is close to 0 for PSA and MIS assuming a homogeneous extinction coefficient up to 1 km above ground. The root mean square error (RMSE) is around 5–6% for PSA and ZAG and around 7–8% for MIS. The TM performs better during summer months, during which more data points have been evaluated. This validation proves the applicability of the transmittance model for resource assessment at various sites. It enables the identification of a clear site with high T 1$km$ with a high accuracy and provides an estimation of the T 1$km$ for hazy sites. Thus it facilitates the decision if on-site extinction measurements are necessary. The model can be used to improve the accuracy of yield analysis of tower plants and allows the site adapted design.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Experimental platforms for investigating feature-driven jets for HED mix model validation

High-energy-density (HED) systems, such as inertial confinement fusion (ICF), are susceptible to hydrodynamic instabilities that can significantly affect both experimental results and modeling predictions. Isolated features, such as fill tubes or divots in the capsule, can cause material to jet as a result of the compressive shock exciting the Richtmyer–Meshkov instability, and serve as one of the primary degradation mechanisms in ICF yield. Simulations of feature-driven jets and how they mix require extensive experimental validation, particularly for understanding to what degree the initial size and shape of a feature influence jet dynamics, and how much instability feeds through downstream layers. A better understanding of feature-driven jetting can improve our mix modeling capabilities and increase hydrodynamic simulation accuracy. This manuscript describes a series of experimental platforms fielded by Los Alamos National Laboratory as a part of the Mshock Omega 60 and ModCons Omega EP campaigns to explore feature-driven jetting. These platforms are designed to benchmark jet evolution and growth as a function of initial feature size and shape, investigate jet-layer interactions leading to instability feedthrough, and will be used to characterize jet-jet interactions resulting from clusters of features. In conclusion, preliminary results for both platforms are shown. The ModCons experiments are on-going, and a discussion of future work directions is included.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A nonhydrostatic version of the Penn State-NCAR Mesoscale Model - Validation tests and simulation of an Atlantic cyclone and cold front

A nonhydrostatic extension to the Pennsylvania State University-NCAR Mesoscale Model is presented, which employs reference pressure as the basis for a terrain-following vertical coordinate, and the fully compressible system of equations. It is shown that this model, combined with the existing initialization techniques and the physics of the current hydrostatic model, is capable of real-data simulations on any scale, limited only by data quality and resolution and by computer resources. An example of an explosive cyclone simulation is presented, demonstrating the capability of the nonhydrostatic model to reproduce the hydrostatic model results at large scales.

Dudhia, Jimy↗

The 2006 Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Range Reference Atmosphere Model Validation Study and Sensitivity Analysis to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Space Shuttle

The 2006 Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) Range Reference Atmosphere (RRA) is a statistical model summarizing the wind and thermodynamic atmospheric variability from surface to 70 kin. Launches of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Space Shuttle from Kennedy Space Center utilize CCAFS RRA data to evaluate environmental constraints on various aspects of the vehicle during ascent. An update to the CCAFS RRA was recently completed. As part of the update, a validation study on the 2006 version was conducted as well as a comparison analysis of the 2006 version to the existing CCAFS RRA database version 1983. Assessments to the Space Shuttle vehicle ascent profile characteristics were performed to determine impacts of the updated model to the vehicle performance. Details on the model updates and the vehicle sensitivity analyses with the update model are presented.

Burns, Lee↗

Experimental Space Shuttle Orbiter Studies to Acquire Data for Code and Flight Heating Model Validation

In an experimental study to obtain detailed heating data over the Space Shuttle Orbiter, CUBRC has completed an extensive matrix of experiments using three distinct models and two unique hypervelocity wind tunnel facilities. This detailed data will be employed to assess heating augmentation due to boundary layer transition on the Orbiter wing leading edge and wind side acreage with comparisons to computational methods and flight data obtained during the Orbiter Entry Boundary Layer Flight Experiment and HYTHIRM during STS-119 reentry. These comparisons will facilitate critical updates to be made to the engineering tools employed to make assessments about natural and tripped boundary layer transition during Orbiter reentry. To achieve the goals of this study data was obtained over a range of Mach numbers from 10 to 18, with flight scaled Reynolds numbers and model attitudes representing key points on the Orbiter reentry trajectory. The first of these studies were performed as an integral part of Return to Flight activities following the accident that occurred during the reentry of the Space Shuttle Columbia (STS-107) in February of 2003. This accident was caused by debris, which originated from the foam covering the external tank bipod fitting ramps, striking and damaging critical wing leading edge heating tiles that reside in the Orbiter bow shock/wing interaction region. During investigation of the accident aeroheating team members discovered that only a limited amount of experimental wing leading edge data existed in this critical peak heating area and a need arose to acquire a detailed dataset of heating in this region. This new dataset was acquired in three phases consisting of a risk mitigation phase employing a 1.8% scale Orbiter model with special temperature sensitive paint covering the wing leading edge, a 0.9% scale Orbiter model with high resolution thin-film instrumentation in the span direction, and the primary 1.8% scale Orbiter model with detailed thin-film resolution in both the span and chord direction in the area of peak heating. Additional objectives of this first study included: obtaining natural or tripped turbulent wing leading edge heating levels, assessing the effectiveness of protuberances and cavities placed at specified locations on the orbiter over a range of Mach numbers and Reynolds numbers to evaluate and compare to existing engineering and computational tools, obtaining cavity floor heating to aid in the verification of cavity heating correlations, acquiring control surface deflection heating data on both the main body flap and elevons, and obtain high speed schlieren videos of the interaction of the orbiter nose bow shock with the wing leading edge. To support these objectives, the stainless steel 1.8% scale orbiter model in addition to the sensors on the wing leading edge was instrumented down the windward centerline, over the wing acreage on the port side, and painted with temperature sensitive paint on the starboard side wing acreage. In all, the stainless steel 1.8% scale Orbiter model was instrumented with over three-hundred highly sensitive thin-film heating sensors, two-hundred of which were located in the wing leading edge shock interaction region. Further experimental studies will also be performed following the successful acquisition of flight data during the Orbiter Entry Boundary Layer Flight Experiment and HYTHIRM on STS-119 at specific data points simulating flight conditions and geometries. Additional instrumentation and a protuberance matching the layout present during the STS-119 boundary layer transition flight experiment were added with testing performed at Mach number and Reynolds number conditions simulating conditions experienced in flight. In addition to the experimental studies, CUBRC also performed a large amount of CFD analysis to confirm and validate not only the tunnel freestream conditions, but also 3D flows over the orbiter acreage, wing leading edge, and controlurfaces to assess data quality, shock interaction locations, and control surface separation regions. This analysis is a standard part of any experimental program at CUBRC, and this information was of key importance for post-test data quality analysis and understanding particular phenomena seen in the data. All work during this effort was sponsored and paid for by the NASA Space Shuttle Program Office at the Johnson Space Center in Houston, Texas.

Wadhams, T. P.↗

The 2006 Kennedy Space Center Range Reference Atmosphere Model Validation Study and Sensitivity Analysis to the Performance of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Space Shuttle Vehicle

The Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Range Reference Atmosphere (RRA) is a statistical model that summarizes wind and thermodynamic atmospheric variability from surface to 70 km. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Space Shuttle program, which launches from KSC, utilizes the KSC RRA data to evaluate environmental constraints on various aspects of the vehicle during ascent. An update to the KSC RRA was recently completed. As part of the update, the Natural Environments Branch at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) conducted a validation study and a comparison analysis to the existing KSC RRA database version 1983. Assessments to the Space Shuttle vehicle ascent profile characteristics were performed by JSC/Ascent Flight Design Division to determine impacts of the updated model to the vehicle performance. Details on the model updates and the vehicle sensitivity analyses with the update model are presented.

Burns, Lee↗

Pronghorn Porous Media Model Validation with Pressure Drop Measurements

The verification and validation (V &V) of Pronghorn is imperative to assert its accuracy when predicting the fluid velocity, temperature, and pressure in high temperature gas-cooled reactors. This paper focuses on the validation of the Pronghorn implementation of the incompressible and compressible Navier-Stokes equations using the pressure drop measurements in the engineering-scale pebble bed facility at the Texas A &M university.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Model validation for inferred hot-spot conditions in National Ignition Facility experiments

Progress toward ignition requires accurately diagnosing current conditions and assessing proximity metrics for implosion experiments on the National Ignition Facility. Hot-spot conditions are not directly measured, but rather inferred, often using simple 0- and 1D models [P. Patel et al., Phys. Plasmas 27, 050901 (2020)]. In this work, we present a detailed accuracy validation exercise using a set of ~20,000 2D simulations encompassing a variety of performance and degradation levels. We find good agreement between the model-inferred pressure and the simulated burn-weighted pressure at peak neutron production and also present results on the precision of inferred quantities using a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo algorithm.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Base Flow Model Validation

A method was developed of obtaining propulsive base flow data in both hot and cold jet environments, at Mach numbers and altitude of relevance to NASA launcher designs. The base flow data was used to perform computational fluid dynamics (CFD) turbulence model assessments of base flow predictive capabilities in order to provide increased confidence in base thermal and pressure load predictions obtained from computational modeling efforts. Predictive CFD analyses were used in the design of the experiments, available propulsive models were used to reduce program costs and increase success, and a wind tunnel facility was used. The data obtained allowed assessment of CFD/turbulence models in a complex flow environment, working within a building-block procedure to validation, where cold, non-reacting test data was first used for validation, followed by more complex reacting base flow validation.

Sinha, Neeraj↗