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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Studies of the influence of heat pipe model and coupling strategy in heat pipe microreactor simulations using Sockeye

This work demonstrates various modeling approaches for thermally coupling heat pipes to a graphite monolithic block in a microreactor context, accounting for the presence of a gap. We show that heat pipe model selection has a significant impact on the transient behavior of a three-dimensional coupled microreactor assembly problem by comparing results obtained using different heat pipe models from the heat pipe code Sockeye. Additionally, we show that the choice of coupling strategy has significant consequences for both accuracy and performance. Furthermore, we found that our heat flux transfer strategy exhibited greater accuracy than our temperature transfer strategy, even when comparing a loose coupling of the heat flux transfer strategy to a tight coupling of the temperature transfer strategy. Although this research uses only theoretical test problems, it provides important insights in modeling thermal fluids phenomena in heat pipe microreactors.

Direwolf↗
DOE OSTI2023

Review of multi-fidelity models

Multi-fidelity models provide a framework for integrating computational models of varying complexity, allowing for accurate predictions while optimizing computational resources. These models are especially beneficial when acquiring high-accuracy data is costly or computationally intensive. This review offers a comprehensive analysis of multi-fidelity models, focusing on their applications in scientific and engineering fields, particularly in optimization and uncertainty quantification. It classifies publications on multi-fidelity modeling according to several criteria, including application area, surrogate model selection, types of fidelity, combination methods and year of publication. The study investigates techniques for combining different fidelity levels, with an emphasis on multi-fidelity surrogate models. Here this work discusses reproducibility, open-sourcing methodologies and benchmarking procedures to promote transparency. The manuscript also includes educational toy problems to enhance understanding. Additionally, this paper outlines best practices for presenting multi-fidelity-related savings in a standardized, succinct and yet thorough manner. The review concludes by examining current trends in multi-fidelity modeling, including emerging techniques, recent advancements, and promising research directions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

IM3 SELECT Urbanization Data

IM3 SELECT Urbanization Data Urban fraction is provided in TIF files projected on the WGS84 datum at coarse (1/8 degree) and downscaled (1km) resolutions across the globe for each of three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios corresponding to SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5; and each of two population scenarios corresponding to the default population scenario and an updated population scenario with more detailed projections for the United States. The population projections are provided as CSV files. Folder structure: default_population population urban_fraction coarse SSP2 SSP3 SSP5 downscaled SSP2 SSP3 SSP5united_states_updated_population population urban_fraction coarse SSP2 SSP3 SSP5 downscaled SSP2 SSP3 SSP5 Urban fraction data was produced using the SELECT model v1.0.0 (Gao, J. & O'Neill, B.C. 2019). Default population data derived from Gao, J. & O'Neill, B.C. 2020. Original model outputs produced using the default population data are available from Gao, J. 2020. Updated United States population data derived from Zoraghein, H. & O'Neill, B.C. 2020. Other SELECT input files available at Gao, J. & O'Neill, B.C. 2022.

McManamay, Ryan↗
DOE OSTI2020

Power system resilience through defender-attacker-defender models with uncertainty: an overview

Protecting and fortifying a power system to make it resilient is an important and hard problem to solve. The interaction between defenders and attackers, the availability of information and the complexity of power system require carefully selecting models and presenting the underlying assumptions. Trilevel defender-attacker-defender models have been developed to investigate the resilience of power systems. In this paper, we review trilevel models in power system application, with the aim of demonstrating the accessibility and applicability of these complex optimization formulations and discussing the underlying assumptions from these models. In particular, we highlight modeling choices, algorithmic details, and how operational and information uncertainty affects resilience versus the traditional complete-knowledge-based optimal solutions. We also describe other similar relevant models which lack such uncertainty and discuss insights on how to address operational, attacker, and defender related uncertainties in future research efforts.

multi-level optimization, defender-attacker-defend↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian inference for plasmonic nanometrology

Here, we introduce a Bayesian method for the characterization of plasmonic nanoparticles, which is applicable to both near- and far-field problems. Designed to combine data generated from any photon-plasmon interaction experiment with physically motivated theoretical models, our approach leverages state-of-the-art Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling techniques and returns parameter estimates on nanometric scales. Simulated spectral data sets, describing resonant scattering of photons from ellipsoidal and toroidal nanoparticles, are explored as concrete examples of our approach, with the resulting Bayesian estimates showing excellent agreement with the ground truth, even under conditions of high statistical noise. By incorporating Bayes factors into the method as well, we reveal how model selection can determine which one of competing geometric shapes better explains the observed data. Our comprehensive nanometrology procedure can be tailored to a variety of light-particle interaction models, and its reliance on Bayesian inference furnishes automatic uncertainty quantification. In addition to applicability to a host of plasmonic configurations such as nanoparticle dimers, trimers, and array studies, it is proposed that the presented analysis can be extended to the quantum regime, where nonclassical photon statistics may provide additional insight for inference of scatterer properties.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Short-Term Probabilistic Solar Forecasting via Reinforcement Learning over ECMWF

In this paper, we present an innovative reinforcement learning approach for short-term solar forecasting, leveraging data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The methodology begins with the application of the System Advisor Model (SAM) to transform various ECMWF numerical weather prediction members into predictive photovoltaic power generation. To enhance the precision of deterministic forecasting, we introduce a dynamic model selection algorithm based on Q-learning. This algorithm dynamically identifies and utilizes the most accurate ensemble member for forecasting purposes. Furthermore, we employ a support vector regression surrogate model with a Gaussian distribution to generate probabilistic forecasts, providing a holistic view of solar energy generation uncertainty. To expedite the training process and make it more practical for real-world applications, we integrate a rolling update workflow. This innovative workflow reduces the training period from months to a mere 19 days, making our method highly efficient. Numerical results of the case study show that in comparison to benchmark models, the proposed method improves the deterministic and probabilistic solar forecasting accuracy by up to 40.84% and 48.42%, respectively.

ensemble forecasting↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-driven search for promising intercalating ions and layered materials for metal-ion batteries

The rise in demand for lithium-ion batteries has led to a large-scale search for electrode materials and intercalating ion species to meet the demands of next-generation energy technologies. Recent efforts largely focus on searching for cathodes that can accommodate large amounts of intercalating ions, but similar work on anodes is relatively limited. This study utilizes machine learning methods to find alternative two-dimensional (2D) materials and intercalating ions beyond Li for metal-ion batteries with high-power efficiencies. The approach first uses density functional theory (DFT) calculations to estimate the theoretical capacities and voltages of various metal ions on 2D materials. The DFT-generated data also provide insights into the local structural accommodation upon ion intercalation on various 2D materials. Significant changes to the lattice can result in irreversible changes to the bonding environments in the anode material, resulting in poor cycling stability. Next, this study develops a binding energy and structural accommodation-based classification model to screen anode materials for next-generation batteries. The classification model selects intercalating ions and 2D material pairs suitable for batteries based on the calculated voltage and volumetric changes in the 2D material upon intercalation. Finally, this study builds a regression model to accurately predict the binding energies of the various intercalating ions on 2D materials. The approach highlights the importance of different elemental and structural features for classification and regression tasks. In conclusion, the insights gained from this study on the role of involved features, such as electronegativities of the constituent ions and the presence of unfilled electronic levels, will help to streamline further studies towards the search for future layered battery materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Wolf-Rayet Galaxies in SDSS-IV MaNGA. II. Metallicity Dependence of the High-mass Slope of the Stellar Initial Mass Function

As hosts of living high-mass stars, Wolf-Rayet (WR) regions or WR galaxies are ideal objects for constraining the high-mass end of the stellar initial mass function (IMF). We construct a large sample of 910 WR galaxies/regions that cover a wide range of stellar metallicity (from Z ~ 0.001 to 0.03) by combining three catalogs of WR galaxies/regions previously selected from the SDSS and SDSS-IV/MaNGA surveys. We measure the equivalent widths of the WR blue bump at ~4650 Å for each spectrum. They are compared with predictions from stellar evolutionary models Starburst99 and BPASS, with different IMF assumptions (high-mass slope α of the IMF ranging from 1.0 to 3.3). Both singular evolution and binary evolution are considered. We also use a Bayesian inference code to perform full spectral fitting to WR spectra with stellar population spectra from BPASS as fitting templates. We then make a model selection among different α assumptions based on Bayesian evidence. These analyses have consistently led to a positive correlation of the IMF high-mass slope α with stellar metallicity Z, i.e., with a steeper IMF (more bottom-heavy) at higher metallicities. Specifically, an IMF with α = 1.00 is preferred at the lowest metallicity (Z ~ 0.001), and an Salpeter or even steeper IMF is preferred at the highest metallicity (Z ~ 0.03). These conclusions hold even when binary population models are adopted.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

MaNGA DynPop – I. Quality-assessed stellar dynamical modelling from integral-field spectroscopy of 10K nearby galaxies: a catalogue of masses, mass-to-light ratios, density profiles, and dark matter

ABSTRACT This is the first paper in our series on the combined analysis of the Dynamics and stellar Population (DynPop) for the MaNGA survey in the final SDSS Data Release 17 (DR17). Here, we present a catalogue of dynamically determined quantities for over 10 000 nearby galaxies based on integral-field stellar kinematics from the MaNGA survey. The dynamical properties are extracted using the axisymmetric Jeans Anisotropic Modelling (JAM) method, which was previously shown to be the most accurate for this kind of study. We assess systematic uncertainties using eight dynamical models with different assumptions. We use two orientations of the velocity ellipsoid: either cylindrically aligned JAMcyl or spherically aligned JAMsph. We also make four assumptions for the models’ dark versus luminous matter distributions: (1) mass-follows-light, (2) free NFW dark halo, (3) cosmologically constrained NFW halo, (4) generalized NFW dark halo, i.e. with free inner slope. In this catalogue, we provide the quantities related to the mass distributions (e.g. the density slopes and enclosed mass within a sphere of a given radius for total mass, stellar mass, and dark matter mass components). We also provide the complete models which can be used to compute the full luminous and mass distribution of each galaxy. Additionally, we visually assess the qualities of the models to help with model selections. We estimate the observed scatter in the measured quantities which decreases as expected with improvements in quality. For the best data quality, we find a remarkable consistency of measured quantities between different models, highlighting the robustness of the results.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty Quantification in Scientific ML

The intricate interactions between data sampling, model selection and the inherent randomness in complex systems strongly emphasize the need for a rigorous characterization of ML algorithms. In conventional statistics, uncertainty quantification (UQ) provides this characterization by measuring how accurately a model reflects the physical reality and by studying the impact of different error sources on the prediction.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding the cold plasma synthesis of ammonia with model metal catalysts through plasma diagnostics (Final Report)

The industrial synthesis of ammonia, which amounts to over 200 million tons annually, is the most energy-intensive chemical process. Therefore, there is a critical need and increased interest in exploring less energetic routes to produce ammonia. Not only does ammonia have a direct impact on the food market, but also it has the potential as a fuel and hydrogen carrier. Recently, plasma catalysis has emerged as a promising alternative for synthesizing ammonia at mild (pressure, temperature and power) conditions. The key to this catalytic process is the synergy between the plasma and the catalyst, where the non-equilibrium plasma allows the generation of excited species, which recombine at the catalyst surface to form ammonia. However, our current understanding of this process is in its infancy. In this respect, model metals are ideal candidates for gaining a basic understanding of this reaction. Moreover, a major roadblock to rationally designing novel effective catalysts for plasma-assisted ammonia production is the need for fundamental aspects of this process. Through a comprehensive plan that integrates model metals as catalysts and world-class diagnostics, the proposed work aims to provide fundamental knowledge about the nature of reactive processes occurring during plasma-assisted catalysis and to demonstrate the selective production of ammonia, catalyzed by employing selected metals under non-thermal plasma conditions. Toward this goal, the central thrust of this proposal was to demonstrate that the synergy between plasma and rationally selected model metals will boost ammonia yields during plasma-assisted ammonia synthesis by delaying hydrogen recombination. Specifically, we aimed to (1) understand the formation and role of gas-phase active species such as NH, N 2 , N 2 + and Ha during the plasma-enhanced synthesis of ammonia through OES and FTIRAS using different reaction configurations: a) only plasma (non-packed DBD reactor) and b) packed DBD reactor with metal nanoparticles. This proposal was awarded/recommended with a run time on the PCRF facility FY20.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

KELT-11 b: Abundances of Water and Constraints on Carbon-bearing Molecules from the Hubble Transmission Spectrum

In the past decade, the analysis of exoplanet atmospheric spectra has revealed the presence of water vapor in almost all the planets observed, with the exception of a fraction of overcast planets. Indeed, water vapor presents a large absorption signature in the wavelength coverage of the Hubble Space Telescope’s (HST) Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3), which is the main space-based observatory for atmospheric studies of exoplanets, making its detection very robust. However, while carbon-bearing species such as methane, carbon monoxide, and carbon dioxide are also predicted from current chemical models, their direct detection and abundance characterization has remained a challenge. Here we analyze the transmission spectrum of the puffy, clear hot-Jupiter KELT-11 b from the HST WFC3 camera. We find that the spectrum is consistent with the presence of water vapor and an additional absorption at longer wavelengths than 1.5 μm, which could well be explained by a mix of carbon bearing molecules. CO{sub 2}, when included is systematically detected. One of the main difficulties to constrain the abundance of those molecules is their weak signatures across the HST WFC3 wavelength coverage, particularly when compared to those of water. Through a comprehensive retrieval analysis, we attempt to explain the main degeneracies present in this data set and explore some of the recurrent challenges that are occurring in retrieval studies (e.g., the impact of model selection, the use of free versus self-consistent chemistry, and the combination of instrument observations). Our results make this planet an exceptional example of a chemical laboratory to test current physical and chemical models of the atmospheres of hot Jupiters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Determining the Length Scale of Transport Impedances in Li-Ion Electrodes: Li(Ni 0.33 Mn 0.33 Co 0.33 )O 2

Battery cathodes are complex multiscale, multifunctional materials. The length scale at which the dominant impedance arises may be difficult to determine even with the most advanced experimental characterization efforts, and thus modeling can play an important role in analysis. Discharge and voltage relaxation curves, interrogated with theory, are used to distinguish between transport impedance that arise on the scale of the active crystal and on the scale of agglomerates (secondary particles) comprised of nanoscale crystals. Model-selection algorithms are applied to determine that the agglomerate scale is dominant in the Li Ni 0.33 Mn 0.33 Co 0.33 O 2 electrode studied here. Furthermore, conditions where the agglomerate and crystal-scale models yield distinct simulation results are demonstrated, providing approaches that can be applied to other systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Materials and Fuels Complex Operations Management Improvement Strategy for FY2022

The Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC) has experienced substantial growth in terms of staff, research, and production in recent years. MFC operational performance has effectively kept pace with this growth. However, to capture the continuous improvement actions needed to improve effectiveness and increase the efficiency of our management systems, a broad operations management strategy is necessary. The MFC Operations Management Improvement (OMI) Strategy is complementary to the MFC Five-Year Mission and Investment Strategies and the MFC Management Plan. The OMI strategy is structured to address the management systems outlined in the Nuclear Facility Management Standard Operations Model. Selected management systems are evaluated independently in chapters that describe the prior 5 years of performance improvement, a description of improvement actions for the MFC staff that directly perform within or contribute to the management system, process improvements, and any needed equipment improvements. Chapter selection is based on a management system’s need for improvement. In some cases, management systems may be combined in a single chapter. Additional chapters are added to address subject areas not formally described in the standard operations model.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Materials and Fuels Complex Operations Management Improvement Strategy for Fiscal Year 2023

The Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC) has experienced substantial growth in terms of staff, research, and production in recent years. MFC operational performance has effectively kept pace with this growth. However, to capture the continuous improvement actions needed to improve effectiveness and increase the efficiency of our management systems, a broad operations management strategy is necessary. The MFC Operations Management Improvement (OMI) Strategy is complementary to the MFC Five-Year Mission and Investment Strategies and the MFC Management Plan. The OMI strategy is structured to address the management systems outlined in the Nuclear Facility Management Standard Operations Model. Selected management systems are evaluated independently in chapters that describe the prior 5 years of performance improvement, a description of improvement actions for the MFC staff that directly perform within or contribute to the management system, process improvements, and any needed equipment improvements. Chapter selection is based on a management system’s need for improvement. In some cases, management systems may be combined in a single chapter. Additional chapters are added to address subject areas not formally described in the standard operations model.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Union through UNITY: Cosmology with 2000 SNe Using a Unified Bayesian Framework

Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) were instrumental in establishing the acceleration of the Universe’s expansion. By virtue of their combination of distance reach, precision, and prevalence, they continue to provide key cosmological constraints, complementing other cosmological probes. Individual SN surveys cover only over about a factor of 2 in redshift, so compilations of multiple SN data sets are strongly beneficial. We assemble an up-to-date “Union” compilation of 2087 cosmologically useful SNe Ia from 24 data sets (“Union3”). We take care to put all SNe on the same distance scale and update the light-curve fitting with SALT3 to use the full rest-frame optical. Over the next few years, the number of cosmologically useful SNe Ia will increase by more than a factor of 10, and keeping systematic uncertainties subdominant will be more challenging than ever. We discuss the importance of treating outliers, selection effects, light-curve shape/color populations/standardization relations, unexplained dispersion, and heterogeneous observations simultaneously. We present an updated Bayesian framework, called UNITY1.5 (Unified Nonlinear Inference for Type-Ia cosmologY), that incorporates significant improvements in our ability to model selection effects, standardization, and systematic uncertainties compared to earlier analyses. As an analysis byproduct, we also recover the posterior of the SN-only peculiar-velocity field, although we do not interpret it in this work. We compute updated cosmological constraints with Union3 and UNITY1.5, finding weak 1.7σ–2.6σ tension with flat cold dark matter and possible evidence for thawing dark energy (w0 > − 1, wa < 0). We release our SN distances, light-curve fits, and UNITY1.5 framework to the community.

Rubin, David↗
DOE OSTI2024

Divergent urban land trajectories under alternative population projections within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Population change is a main driver behind global environmental change, including urban land expansion. In future scenario modeling, assumptions regarding how populations will change locally, despite identical global constraints of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), can have dramatic effects on subsequent regional urbanization. Using a spatial modeling experiment at high resolution (1 km), this study compared how two alternative US population projections, varying in the spatially explicit nature of demographic patterns and migration, affect urban land dynamics simulated by the Spatially Explicit, Long-term, Empirical City development (SELECT) model for SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5. The population projections included: (1) newer downscaled state-specific population (SP) projections inclusive of updated international and domestic migration estimates, and (2) prevailing downscaled national-level projections (NP) agnostic to localized demographic processes. Our work shows that alternative population inputs, even those under the same SSP, can lead to dramatic and complex differences in urban land outcomes. Under the SP projection, urbanization displays more of an extensification pattern compared to the NP projection. This suggests that recent demographic information supports more extreme urban extensification and land pressures on existing rural areas in the US than previously anticipated. Urban land outcomes to population inputs were spatially variable where areas in close spatial proximity showed divergent patterns, reflective of the spatially complex urbanization processes that can be accommodated in SELECT. Although different population projections and assumptions led to divergent outcomes, urban land development is not a linear product of population change but the result of complex relationships between population, dynamic urbanization processes, stages of urban development maturity, and feedback mechanisms. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for spatial variations in the population projections, but also urbanization process to accurately project long-term urban land patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploration ToolKit (ExTK)

The Exploration Toolkit (ExTK) is a reusable Extended Reality (XR) system developed for incorporating and exploring 3-Dimensional (3-D) computer aided design (CAD) models in XR, with a primary focus on Augmented Reality (AR). The ExTK consists of a Developer Mode and a User Mode. In Developer Mode, ExTK provides developers with the ability to easily import 3-D CAD models and activate desired exploration functionality and layout. Multiple models can be added to a single instantiation of the ExTK using Unity's Scene capability. Exploration functions include scaling, rotating, explode/contract, animations, hiding parts, submodules, and measurement functions. In User Mode, ExTK provides a menu system that allows users to select models and initiate exploration functions. ExTK is architected for reusability and developers can customize the ExTK layout and functions according to application needs. ExTK is designed to be hardware agnostic, although initial development focused on the Microsoft HoloLens as the primary deployment platform. The ExTK is developed using the Unity Game Engine Development Platform. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525. SAND2021-1506 O

Klein, BrandonThorin↗