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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Non-intrusive reduced-order modeling for dynamical systems with spatially localized features

This work presents a non-intrusive reduced-order modeling framework for dynamical systems with spatially localized features characterized by slow singular value decay. The proposed approach builds upon two existing methodologies for reduced and full-order non-intrusive modeling, namely Operator Inference (OpInf) and sparse Full-Order Model (sFOM) inference. We decompose the domain into two complementary subdomains that exhibit fast and slow singular value decay. The dynamics of the subdomain exhibiting slow singular value decay are learned with sFOM while the dynamics with intrinsically low dimensionality on the complementary subdomain are learned with OpInf. The resulting, coupled OpInf-sFOM formulation leverages the computational efficiency of OpInf and the high resolution of sFOM, and thus enables fast non-intrusive predictions for conditions beyond those sampled in the training data set. A novel regularization technique with a closed-form solution based on the Gershgorin disk theorem is introduced to promote stable sFOM and OpInf models. We also provide a data-driven indicator for subdomain selection and ensure solution smoothness over the interface via a post-processing interpolation step. We evaluate the efficiency of the approach in terms of offline and online speedup through a quantitative, parametric computational cost analysis. We demonstrate the coupled OpInf-sFOM formulation for two test cases: a one-dimensional Burgers’ model for which accurate predictions beyond the span of the training snapshots are presented, and a two-dimensional parametric model for the Pine Island Glacier ice thickness dynamics, for which the OpInf-sFOM model achieves an average prediction error on the order of 1% with an online speedup factor of approximately 8$\times$ compared to the numerical simulation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Latent Stochastic Differential Equations for Modeling Quasar Variability and Inferring Black Hole Properties

Quasars are bright and unobscured active galactic nuclei (AGN) thought to be powered by the accretion of matter around supermassive black holes at the centers of galaxies. The temporal variability of a quasar’s brightness contains valuable information about its physical properties. The UV/optical variability is thought to be a stochastic process, often represented as a damped random walk described by a stochastic differential equation (SDE). Upcoming wide-field telescopes such as the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) are expected to observe tens of millions of AGN in multiple filters over a ten year period, so there is a need for efficient and automated modeling techniques that can handle the large volume of data. Latent SDEs are machine learning models well suited for modeling quasar variability, as they can explicitly capture the underlying stochastic dynamics. In this work, we adapt latent SDEs to jointly reconstruct multivariate quasar light curves and infer their physical properties such as the black hole mass, inclination angle, and temperature slope. Our model is trained on realistic simulations of LSST ten year quasar light curves, and we demonstrate its ability to reconstruct quasar light curves even in the presence of long seasonal gaps and irregular sampling across different bands, outperforming a multioutput Gaussian process regression baseline. Our method has the potential to provide a deeper understanding of the physical properties of quasars and is applicable to a wide range of other multivariate time series with missing data and irregular sampling.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Crustal and uppermost mantle structure near the Gloria Fault, North Atlantic, from ocean bottom seismometer surface wave observations

SUMMARY In this work, we present both 1-D and 3-D shear wave velocity (Vs) models of the oceanic crust and uppermost mantle below the Deep OCean Test ARray area, located ∼ 70 km north of the central section of the Gloria Fault, in the eastern North-Atlantic Ocean. The velocity models are inferred from the dispersion of surface waves recorded on ocean bottom seismometers. Dispersion measurements are obtained from the analysis of ambient seismic noise at short periods (< 14 s) and teleseismic surface waves at long periods (> 14 s) using the two-station method. The 1-D Vs model is inferred from the joint inversion of Rayleigh wave phase velocities and Love wave group and phase velocities. The 3-D tomographic model is obtained by inversion of 2-D Love wave group velocity maps as a function of depth, further constrained by the average of Love wave phase velocities obtained from ambient noise (4–9 s) and the average Rayleigh and Love wave phase velocities calculated from teleseismic data (14–44 s). The 1-D Vs model shows a sediment layer with a low velocity of 1.05 km s−1, similar to previous studies in the region. Below the sediments, we find an oceanic crust with velocities ranging from 3.3 to 4.5 km s−1. The model reaches an unusually high velocity of 4.9 km s−1 in a 20 km thick layer at depths between 16 and 36 km. We interpret this fast velocity layer as indicative of the presence of harzburgite, a residue of enhanced melting that might have been formed by the proximity between the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and the Azores mantle plume. At greater depths the velocity decreases, forming a low-velocity zone that reaches a minimum at ∼ 70 km depth, which we interpret as the maximum depth for the lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary. The 3-D model shows a structure that is mostly horizontally layered, with Vs isocontours at 3.5–4.5 km s−1 highlighting oscillations of the crustal structure with wavelengths of ∼25–30 km. These oscillations may be due to changes in the rate of mantle upwelling and magma supply rate.

Pinzón, Juan I. (ORCID:0000000338078068)↗
DOE OSTI2020

UQ Toolkit v 2.0

The Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) Toolkit is a software library for the characterizaton and propagation of uncertainties in computational models. For the characterization of uncertainties, Bayesian inference tools are provided to infer uncertain model parameters, as well as Bayesian compressive sensing methods for discovering sparse representations of high-dimensional input-output response surfaces, and also Karhunen-Loève expansions for representing stochastic processes. Uncertain parameters are treated as random variables and represented with Polynomial Chaos expansions (PCEs). The library implements several spectral basis function types (e.g. Hermite basis functions in terms of Gaussian random variables or Legendre basis functions in terms of uniform random variables) that can be used to represent random variables with PCEs. For propagation of uncertainty, tools are provided to propagate PCEs that describe the input uncertainty through the computational model using either intrusive methods (Galerkin projection of equations onto basis functions) or non-intrusive methods (perform deterministic operation at sampled values of the random values and project the obtained results onto basis functions).

Safta, Cosmin↗
DOE OSTI2021

Keras CT Segmentation v.1

SAND2020-14119 O A Tensorflow and Keras-backed framework for learned segmentation methods of 3D CT scan volumes. Supported functionality includes training models, running inference and quantifying uncertainty. The main underlying model architecture is V-Net. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Ganter, Tyler↗
DOE OSTI2023

Joint Analysis of the Epidemic Evolution and Human Mobility During the First Wave of COVID-19 in Spain: Retrospective Study

Background The initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic placed a tremendous strain on health care systems worldwide. To mitigate the spread of the virus, many countries implemented stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), which significantly altered human behavior both before and after their enactment. Despite these efforts, a precise assessment of the impact and efficacy of these NPIs, as well as the extent of human behavioral changes, remained elusive. Objective In this study, we conducted a retrospective analysis of the initial wave of COVID-19 in Spain to better comprehend the influence of NPIs and their interaction with human behavior. Such investigations are vital for devising future mitigation strategies to combat COVID-19 and enhance epidemic preparedness more broadly. Methods We used a combination of national and regional retrospective analyses of pandemic incidence alongside large-scale mobility data to assess the impact and timing of government-implemented NPIs in combating COVID-19. Additionally, we compared these findings with a model-based inference of hospitalizations and fatalities. This model-based approach enabled us to construct counterfactual scenarios that gauged the consequences of delayed initiation of epidemic response measures. Results Our analysis demonstrated that the pre–national lockdown epidemic response, encompassing regional measures and heightened individual awareness, significantly contributed to reducing the disease burden in Spain. The mobility data indicated that people adjusted their behavior in response to the regional epidemiological situation before the nationwide lockdown was implemented. Counterfactual scenarios suggested that without this early epidemic response, there would have been an estimated 45,400 (95% CI 37,400-58,000) fatalities and 182,600 (95% CI 150,400-233,800) hospitalizations compared to the reported figures of 27,800 fatalities and 107,600 hospitalizations, respectively. Conclusions Our findings underscore the significance of self-implemented prevention measures by the population and regional NPIs before the national lockdown in Spain. The study also emphasizes the necessity for prompt and precise data quantification prior to enacting enforced measures. This highlights the critical interplay between NPIs, epidemic progression, and human behavior. This interdependence presents a challenge in predicting the impact of NPIs before they are implemented.

Public, Environmental & Occupational Health↗
DOE OSTI2017

The Rapid Reddening and Featureless Optical Spectra of the Optical Counterpart of GW170817, AT 2017gfo, during the First Four Days

We present the spectroscopic evolution of AT 2017gfo, the optical counterpart of the first binary neutron star (BNS) merger detected by LIGO and Virgo, GW170817. While models have long predicted that a BNS merger could produce a kilonova (KN), we have not been able to definitively test these models until now. From one day to four days after the merger, we took five spectra of AT 2017gfo before it faded away, which was possible because it was at a distance of only 39.5 Mpc in the galaxy NGC 4993. The spectra evolve from blue (∼6400 K) to red (∼3500 K) over the three days we observed. The spectra are relatively featureless—some weak features exist in our latest spectrum, but they are likely due to the host galaxy. However, a simple blackbody is not sufficient to explain our data: another source of luminosity or opacity is necessary. Predictions from simulations of KNe qualitatively match the observed spectroscopic evolution after two days past the merger, but underpredict the blue flux in our earliest spectrum. From our best-fit models, we infer that AT 2017gfo had an ejecta mass of 0.03 M{sub ⊙}, high ejecta velocities of 0.3c, and a low mass fraction ∼10{sup −4} of high-opacity lanthanides and actinides. One possible explanation for the early excess of blue flux is that the outer ejecta is lanthanide-poor, while the inner ejecta has a higher abundance of high-opacity material. With the discovery and follow-up of this unique transient, combining gravitational-wave and electromagnetic astronomy, we have arrived in the multi-messenger era.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Learning from crowds with variational Gaussian processes

Solving a supervised learning problem requires to label a training set. This task is traditionally performed by an expert, who provides a label for each sample. The proliferation of social web services (e.g., Amazon Mechanical Turk) has introduced an alternative crowdsourcing approach. Anybody with a computer can register in one of these services and label, either partially or completely, a dataset. The effort of labeling is then shared between a great number of annotators. However, this approach introduces scientifically challenging problems such as combining the unknown expertise of the annotators, handling disagreements on the annotated samples, or detecting the existence of spammer and adversarial annotators. All these problems require probabilistic sound solutions which go beyond the naive use of majority voting plus classical classification methods. In this work we introduce a new crowdsourcing model and inference procedure which trains a Gaussian Process classifier using the noisy labels provided by the annotators. Variational Bayes inference is used to estimate all unknowns. The proposed model can predict the class of new samples and assess the expertise of the involved annotators. Moreover, the Bayesian treatment allows for a solid uncertainty quantification. Since when predicting the class of a new sample we might have access to some annotations for it, we also show how our method can naturally incorporate this additional information. Furthermore, a comprehensive experimental section evaluates the proposed method with synthetic and real experiments, showing that it consistently outperforms other state-of-the-art crowdsourcing approaches.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

The Electromagnetic Counterpart of the Binary Neutron Star Merger LIGO/Virgo GW170817. VII. Properties of the Host Galaxy and Constraints on the Merger Timescale

We present the properties of NGC 4993, the host galaxy of GW170817, the first gravitational-wave (GW) event from the merger of a binary neutron star (BNS) system and the first with an electromagnetic (EM) counterpart. We use both archival photometry and new optical/near-IR imaging and spectroscopy, together with stellar population synthesis models to infer the global properties of the host galaxy. We infer a star formation history peaked at ≳10 Gyr ago, with subsequent exponential decline leading to a low current star formation rate of 0.01 M{sub ⊙} yr{sup −1}, which we convert into a binary merger timescale probability distribution. We find a median merger timescale of 11.2{sub −1.4}{sup +0.7} Gyr, with a 90% confidence range of 6.8--13.6 Gyr. This in turn indicates an initial binary separation of ≈4.5 R{sub ⊙}, comparable to the inferred values for Galactic BNS systems. We also use new and archival Hubble Space Telescope images to measure a projected offset of the optical counterpart of 2.1 kpc (0.64r {sub e}) from the center of NGC 4993 and to place a limit of M{sub r}≳−7.2 mag on any pre-existing emission, which rules out the brighter half of the globular cluster luminosity function. Finally, the age and offset of the system indicates it experienced a modest natal kick with an upper limit of ∼200 km s{sup −1}. Future GW–EM observations of BNS mergers will enable measurement of their population delay time distribution, which will directly inform their viability as the dominant source of r-process enrichment in the universe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

hIPPYlib-MUQ: A Bayesian Inference Software Framework for Integration of Data with Complex Predictive Models under Uncertainty

Bayesian inference provides a systematic framework for integration of data with mathematical models to quantify the uncertainty in the solution of the inverse problem. However, the solution of Bayesian inverse problems governed by complex forward models described by partial differential equations (PDEs) remains prohibitive with black-box Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We present hIPPYlib-MUQ, an extensible and scalable software framework that contains implementations of state-of-the art algorithms aimed to overcome the challenges of high-dimensional, PDE-constrained Bayesian inverse problems. These algorithms accelerate MCMC sampling by exploiting the geometry and intrinsic low-dimensionality of parameter space via derivative information and low rank approximation. The software integrates two complementary open-source software packages, hIPPYlib and MUQ. hIPPYlib solves PDE-constrained inverse problems using automatically-generated adjoint-based derivatives, but it lacks full Bayesian capabilities. MUQ provides a spectrum of powerful Bayesian inversion models and algorithms, but expects forward models to come equipped with gradients and Hessians to permit large-scale solution. By combining these two complementary libraries, we created a robust, scalable, and efficient software framework that realizes the benefits of each and allows us to tackle complex large-scale Bayesian inverse problems across a broad spectrum of scientific and engineering disciplines. To illustrate the capabilities of hIPPYlib-MUQ, we present a comparison of a number of MCMC methods available in the integrated software on several high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems. These include problems characterized by both linear and nonlinear PDEs, various noise models, and different parameter dimensions. The results demonstrate that large (~ 50×) speedups over conventional black box and gradient-based MCMC algorithms can be obtained by exploiting Hessian information (from the log-posterior), underscoring the power of the integrated hIPPYlib-MUQ framework.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the Reliability of Parameter Inferences in a Multiscale Model for Transport in Stream Corridors

Nonreacting tracer tests capture information about physical processes in transient storage zones including the hyporheic zone (HZ). However, reliably extracting this information from breakthrough curves (BTCs) and distinguishing the effects of in-channel dispersion and transient storage are well-known challenges. Using BTCs from a nonreacting tracer test monitored at multiple locations, we explore ways for reliable parameter estimations. The identifiability of parameters is greatly influenced by the choice of forward and inverse modeling frameworks in addition to the quality of the data. Our forward model is a recently proposed multiscale model that uses subgrid transport models written in the Lagrangian form to represent transport along a diverse set of HZ pathways with a shape-free distribution of travel times. Joint distributions of HZ and channel parameters are estimated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique. Numerical experiments show ambiguity between channel dispersion and HZ transport when the reach length is too short to allow significant solute-HZ interaction, the observation period is too brief to observe the tailing behavior, or the solute source is spread in time. In contrast, we obtained reliable parameter estimates by simultaneously fitting BTCs observed at different locations in the test reach using a single set of HZ parameters and section-specific channel areas and dispersion coefficients. Furthermore, this study demonstrates the estimation of travel time distributions, HZ exchange rates, and channel parameters in a new multiscale approach and offers guidance for extracting reliable parameter estimates from multiple BTCs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine-Learning Accelerated Studies of Materials with High Performance and Edge Computing

In the studies of materials, experimental measurements often serve as the reference to verify physics theory and modeling; while theory and modeling provide a fundamental understanding of the physics and principles behind. However, the interactions and cross validation between them have long been a challenge even to-date. Not only that inferring a physics model from experimental data is itself a difficult inverse problem, another major challenge is the orders-of-magnitude longer wall-clock time required to carry out high-fidelity computer modeling to match the timescale of experiments. We envisage that by combining high performance computing, data science, and edge computing technology, the current predicament can be alleviated, and a new paradigm of data-driven physics research will open up. For example, we can accelerate computer simulations by first performing the large-scale modeling on high performance computers and train a machine-learned surrogate model. This computationally inexpensive surrogate model can then be transferred to the computing units residing closely to the experimental facilities to perform high-fidelity simulations at a much higher throughout. The model will also be more amenable to analyzing and validating experimental observations in comparable time scales at a much lower computational cost. Further integration of these accelerated computer simulations with an outer machine learning loop can also inform and direct future experiments, while making the inverse problem of physics model inference more tractable. We will demonstrate a proof-of-concept by using a quantum Monte Carlo application, Dynamical Cluster Approximation (DCA++), to machine-learn a surrogate model and accelerate the study of quantum correlated materials.

Li, Ying Wai↗