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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9

A Spatiotemporal Sequence Forecasting Platform to Advance the Prediction of Changing Spatiotemporal Patterns of CO 2 Concentration by Incorporating Human Activity and Hydrological Extremes

Focal Areas (2): Predictive modeling using AI techniques and AI-derived model components. It describes the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising a hierarchy of models. Specifically, this white paper focuses on the development of a collaborative deep learning platform for evaluating and predicting spatiotemporal relationships between the hydrological and carbon cycles and includes capabilities for considering biogenic and anthropogenic inputs to these systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Advancing the Predictability of Water Cycle Phenomena via the Application of AI to Model Ensemble Simulations and Observations

AI has the power to identify new pathways to extended predictability of the water cycle via its application to model ensembles together with accompanying observations. We discuss both scientific and technological aspects of this challenge, and address the parts of the MODEX approach involving “Model simulations, evaluation, analysis, and benchmarking” and “Identification of key knowledge gaps”. The widespread incorporation of AI into model analysis will significantly advance Earth system predictability and our predictive capabilities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

AI Automated Discovery of New Climate Water System Knowledge from Models and Observations

This paper addresses focus area 3, “Insight gleaned from complex data.” Science Challenge: The climate-water system is highly complex, containing a multitude of positive and negative feedbacks, time scales stretching many orders-of-magnitudes, and non-linear, connected processes. Powerful artificial intelligence (AI) methods can revolutionize and automate the discovery of new knowledge and relationships in the climate-water system, which will improve understanding and predictability of extreme hydrological events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

AI Scaling Laws for Extremes (AISLE)

Focal Area(s) Using artificial intelligence to understand the physics of hydrologic events across temporal and spatial scales, to assess their representation in climate models, and to predict their response to climate warming. This covers both the prescribed foci of (2) predictive modeling using a hierarchy of models and (3) insight gleaned from complex data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

AI-Improved Resolution Projections of Population Characteristics and Imperviousness Can Improve Resolution and Accuracy of Urban Flood Predictions

Focal Area: (2) Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components. Specifically, we call for the use of deep generative models from ML for providing high-resolution projections of impervious surface area, as well as neural network solvers for fast approximation of urban hydrodynamics to provide greatly enhanced forecasts of future urban flood dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Autonomous reinforcement learning agents for improving predictions and observations of extreme climate events

Primary Focus Area: This proposal addresses focus area 2, “Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques.” Science Challenge: Extreme climate events associated with severe weather, coastal and inland flooding, droughts, heat waves and wildfires are expected to increase in frequency and severity in the future. Due to the complexity and chaotic behavior of the climate system, accurately predicting and observing extreme climate events requires a tremendous amount of human intervention to run predictive climate simulations and deploy measurement systems. Extreme events often unfold very quickly, leaving little time to iterate on simulations or re-position instruments. Through reinforcement learning, autonomous AI agents can be designed to make real-time decisions to characterize extreme climate events more efficiently through adaptive models and targeted observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Trustworthy AI for Extreme Event Prediction and Understanding

Our transformational science question is: can we revolutionize both the prediction and understanding of extreme events through trustworthy AI? Our use-cases include extreme weather such as tornadoes and hail as well as water-based events including extreme precipitation, compound flooding, harmful algal blooms, and sea turtle cold stunnings and nest inundations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Developing an Eco-Cooperative Automated Control System (Eco-CAC)

The goal of the project was to develop a novel Eco-Cooperative Automated Control (Eco-CAC) system that integrates vehicle dynamics (VD) control with connected and automated vehicle (CAV) applications. In particular, the team developed a novel integrated control system that (1) routes vehicles in a fuel/energy-efficient manner for internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), battery-only electric vehicles (BEVs), and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs); (2) selects vehicle speeds based on anticipated traffic network evolution; (3) minimizes vehicle fuel/energy consumption near signalized intersections; and (4) intelligently modulates the longitudinal motion of vehicles within a cooperative platoon to minimize its fuel/energy consumption.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Retrieving Point Cloud of Cloud Points (PCCP) Value-Added Product from Stereo Cameras

In this report, we refer to a pair of cameras that capture synchronized pictures with overlapping fields of view (FOV) as a stereo pair. Each stereo pair independently performs a stereo reconstruction of cloud points. Currently, there are three U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility stereo pairs (six cameras in total) positioned around the Southern Great Plains (SGP) observatory’s Central Facility (CF; Romps and Oktem 2017). Time-synchronized pictures from the two cameras in a stereo pair can be paired together to obtain a three-dimensional (3D) reconstruction of feature points by triangulation. This document explains how we use ARM stereo cameras and stereophotogrammetric principles to generate the Point Cloud of Cloud Points (PCCP) Value-Added Product (VAP). The PCCP VAP is essentially a set of 3D positions representing the locations of cloud features in the sky. Thousands of cloud features can be reconstructed instantly in each stereo pair's FOV, which covers an area of tens of square kilometers. Cloud base and cloud top heights can be extracted from the PCCP product.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Description of the Three-Dimensional Large-Scale Forcing Data from the 3D Constrained Variational Analysis (VARANAL3D)

This technical report introduces a Three-Dimensional Constrained Variational Analysis (3DCVA) (Tang and Zhang 2015) and its product of three-dimensional large-scale forcing data to drive single-column models (SCM), cloud-resolving models (CRM), and large-eddy simulation (LES) models, and to evaluate model results. The 3DCVA algorithm is an extension of the original 1D constrained variational analysis (1DCVA) (Zhang and Lin 1997, Zhang et al. 2001). The three-dimensional structure of the forcing data allows studies of spatial variation of the large-scale forcing fields and tests of physical parameterizations across scales. In the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility, the 3D forcing data are assigned the datastream name varanal3d. In this technical report, 3DCVA will be used to refer to the algorithm, while VARANAL3D will be used to refer to the data product.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Generator Failures under Extreme Temperature Scenarios in Power Systems

This report summarizes work done under the Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification (VVUQ) thrust area of the North American Energy Resilience Model (NAERM) Program. The specific task of interest described in this report is focused on sensitivity analysis of scenarios involving failures of both wind turbines and thermal generators under extreme cold-weather temperature conditions as would be observed in a Polar Vortex event.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Vadose and Saturated Zone Flow and Transport Model Package Report for the Active Trenches of the Low-Level Burial Grounds, Hanford Site, Washington

This model package report (MPR) documents the development of the integrated vadose and saturated zone flow and transport model developed for the performance assessment of Trenches 31 and 34 in the low-level burial grounds (LLBGs). This modeling capability is intended for use in addressing the analysis requirements outlined in DOE O 435.1, Chg 1, Radioactive Waste Management1. The overall objective of the modeling effort is to provide a basis for making informed disposal decisions pertinent to Trenches 31 and 34. The purpose of the MPR is to document the development of the three-dimensional numerical vadose zone and saturated flow and transport model test case and evaluate its adequacy to support the LLBG performance assessment. The purpose is not to present results for DOE 435.1 decision making. The use of the model to perform base case and sensitivity analysis for the LLBG performance assessment, including inputs and results, is documented separately in subsequent environmental calculation files. This report discusses the development and translation of the conceptual model for flow and contaminant transport into the LLBG performance assessment three-dimensional numerical flow and transport model evaluated using the Subsurface Transport Over Multiple Phases (STOMP©) simulator. The development of representative geologic framework is described along with the implementation of waste release models used to represent contaminant release from waste disposed in the trenches. The report also provides the technical basis for specific model parameters and boundary conditions, along with description of modeling assumptions. This MPR includes certain calculations that are necessary to demonstrate the soundness of the model. Results provided by the model include vadose zone and saturated zone flow fields, and estimates of the possible future concentration in groundwater of technetium-99 and iodine-129 as example test cases. As an evaluation of the test cases, the model estimates of current vadose conditions are compared to available and analogous field and laboratory data, and compared to the results from the original performance assessment model (WHC-EP-0645, Performance Assessment for the Disposal of Low-Level Waste in the 200 West Area Burial Grounds 2 ). The features, events, and processes applicable to vadose zone and saturated zone flow and transport model are identified, and representative initial estimates for various parameters are documented. Note that the parameter estimates presented in this MPR are for illustration purposes, and may or may not reflect values selected for eventual performance assessment. Several key topical discussions (i.e., basis for recharge estimates, basis for vadose zone modeling, basis for saturated zone model development, and calibration) are included, which serve as the groundwork for confidence building for the groundwater pathway modeling and results. Numerical simulation results based on an example test case are included to illustrate the use of the combined saturated-unsaturated model in performance assessment calculations. Sensitivity and uncertainty results are not included in this MPR. Those results will be included in future environmental calculation files. The inclusion of the trapezoidal trench geometry and construction details in the finite difference grid introduces some gross simplifications regarding the trench and liner systems. The model test case presented in this MPR includes the assumption that the trench liner system does not affect flow through or around the trenches after the liner system is assumed to fail. This MPR also includes results of other test cases that involve alternate assumptions about how to incorporate the hydraulic effects of the trenches into the vadose zone of the model. These alternate cases do not attempt to account for the presence of the liner system after its assumed failure either. None of these cases is considered to be the base case at this time. Analysis and alternate cases that attempt to account for the presence of the liner system in greater detail, and its effect on flow through and around it, are to be documented in subsequent environmental calculation files. Depending on the results of those analyses and alternate cases, the eventual base case may involve more detailed inclusion of the effects of the liner system hydraulics.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Task Parallelism to Optimize Performance of Environmental Modeling Software

Climate modeling is an integral part of environmental research, from studying rare phenomena to predicting future climate trends. The need for more accurate models is only growing, but as climate modeling capabilities advance, existing workflows require optimization to recoup performance. A solution comes in the form of task parallelism, a novel programming capability that provides an opportunity for optimization at execution time by allowing tasks to be executed in parallel, reducing runtime significantly. Using Parsl, an intuitive and scalable parallel scripting library for Python, we implement task parallelism within support software to aid in the continuous advancement of climate modeling technology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Application of Machine Learning Techniques to Meteorological Forecasting

Fog and inland-penetrating sea-breezes occur often at SRS and have a strong impact on site operations. Site personnel therefore require accurate forecasts of these events, but both are difficult to forecast using traditional techniques. Our goal is to apply machine learning (ML) techniques to the problem of forecasting fog and the sea breeze at the Savannah River Site. We apply several such techniques - decision trees, regression, and a series of classification/regression techniques – and train them using the large datasets collected by our group at SRS and from external organizations that maintain databases of regional meteorological variables.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗