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At least 163 records · Page 9

Complexity Management Using Metrics for Trajectory Flexibility Preservation and Constraint Minimization

The growing demand for air travel is increasing the need for mitigating air traffic congestion and complexity problems, which are already at high levels. At the same time new surveillance, navigation, and communication technologies are enabling major transformations in the air traffic management system, including net-based information sharing and collaboration, performance-based access to airspace resources, and trajectory-based rather than clearance-based operations. The new system will feature different schemes for allocating tasks and responsibilities between the ground and airborne agents and between the human and automation, with potential capacity and cost benefits. Therefore, complexity management requires new metrics and methods that can support these new schemes. This paper presents metrics and methods for preserving trajectory flexibility that have been proposed to support a trajectory-based approach for complexity management by airborne or ground-based systems. It presents extensions to these metrics as well as to the initial research conducted to investigate the hypothesis that using these metrics to guide user and service provider actions will naturally mitigate traffic complexity. The analysis showed promising results in that: (1) Trajectory flexibility preservation mitigated traffic complexity as indicated by inducing self-organization in the traffic patterns and lowering traffic complexity indicators such as dynamic density and traffic entropy. (2)Trajectory flexibility preservation reduced the potential for secondary conflicts in separation assurance. (3) Trajectory flexibility metrics showed potential application to support user and service provider negotiations for minimizing the constraints imposed on trajectories without jeopardizing their objectives.

Idris, Husni↗

An Enhanced TIMESAT Algorithm for Estimating Vegetation Phenology Metrics from MODIS Data

An enhanced TIMESAT algorithm was developed for retrieving vegetation phenology metrics from 250 m and 500 m spatial resolution Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation indexes (VI) over North America. MODIS VI data were pre-processed using snow-cover and land surface temperature data, and temporally smoothed with the enhanced TIMESAT algorithm. An objective third derivative test was applied to define key phenology dates and retrieve a set of phenology metrics. This algorithm has been applied to two MODIS VIs: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI). In this paper, we describe the algorithm and use EVI as an example to compare three sets of TIMESAT algorithm/MODIS VI combinations: a) original TIMESAT algorithm with original MODIS VI, b) original TIMESAT algorithm with pre-processed MODIS VI, and c) enhanced TIMESAT and pre-processed MODIS VI. All retrievals were compared with ground phenology observations, some made available through the National Phenology Network. Our results show that for MODIS data in middle to high latitude regions, snow and land surface temperature information is critical in retrieving phenology metrics from satellite observations. The results also show that the enhanced TIMESAT algorithm can better accommodate growing season start and end dates that vary significantly from year to year. The TIMESAT algorithm improvements contribute to more spatial coverage and more accurate retrievals of the phenology metrics. Among three sets of TIMESAT/MODIS VI combinations, the start of the growing season metric predicted by the enhanced TIMESAT algorithm using pre-processed MODIS VIs has the best associations with ground observed vegetation greenup dates.

Tan, Bin↗

Evaluation of Two Crew Module Boilerplate Tests Using Newly Developed Calibration Metrics

The paper discusses a application of multi-dimensional calibration metrics to evaluate pressure data from water drop tests of the Max Launch Abort System (MLAS) crew module boilerplate. Specifically, three metrics are discussed: 1) a metric to assess the probability of enveloping the measured data with the model, 2) a multi-dimensional orthogonality metric to assess model adequacy between test and analysis, and 3) a prediction error metric to conduct sensor placement to minimize pressure prediction errors. Data from similar (nearly repeated) capsule drop tests shows significant variability in the measured pressure responses. When compared to expected variability using model predictions, it is demonstrated that the measured variability cannot be explained by the model under the current uncertainty assumptions.

Horta, Lucas G.↗

Development of an Objective Space Suit Mobility Performance Metric Using Metabolic Cost and Functional Tasks

Existing methods for evaluating EVA suit performance and mobility have historically concentrated on isolated joint range of motion and torque. However, these techniques do little to evaluate how well a suited crewmember can actually perform during an EVA. An alternative method of characterizing suited mobility through measurement of metabolic cost to the wearer has been evaluated at Johnson Space Center over the past several years. The most recent study involved six test subjects completing multiple trials of various functional tasks in each of three different space suits; the results indicated it was often possible to discern between different suit designs on the basis of metabolic cost alone. However, other variables may have an effect on real-world suited performance; namely, completion time of the task, the gravity field in which the task is completed, etc. While previous results have analyzed completion time, metabolic cost, and metabolic cost normalized to system mass individually, it is desirable to develop a single metric comprising these (and potentially other) performance metrics. This paper outlines the background upon which this single-score metric is determined to be feasible, and initial efforts to develop such a metric. Forward work includes variable coefficient determination and verification of the metric through repeated testing.

Norcross, J. R.↗

Development of an Objective Space Suit Mobility Performance Metric Using Metabolic Cost and Functional Tasks

Existing methods for evaluating EVA suit performance and mobility have historically concentrated on isolated joint range of motion and torque. However, these techniques do little to evaluate how well a suited crewmember can actually perform during an EVA. An alternative method of characterizing suited mobility through measurement of metabolic cost to the wearer has been evaluated at Johnson Space Center over the past several years. The most recent study involved six test subjects completing multiple trials of various functional tasks in each of three different space suits; the results indicated it was often possible to discern between different suit designs on the basis of metabolic cost alone. However, other variables may have an effect on real-world suited performance; namely, completion time of the task, the gravity field in which the task is completed, etc. While previous results have analyzed completion time, metabolic cost, and metabolic cost normalized to system mass individually, it is desirable to develop a single metric comprising these (and potentially other) performance metrics. This paper outlines the background upon which this single-score metric is determined to be feasible, and initial efforts to develop such a metric. Forward work includes variable coefficient determination and verification of the metric through repeated testing.

McFarland, Shane M.↗

Fault Management Metrics

This paper describes the theory and considerations in the application of metrics to measure the effectiveness of fault management. Fault management refers here to the operational aspect of system health management, and as such is considered as a meta-control loop that operates to preserve or maximize the system's ability to achieve its goals in the face of current or prospective failure. As a suite of control loops, the metrics to estimate and measure the effectiveness of fault management are similar to those of classical control loops in being divided into two major classes: state estimation, and state control. State estimation metrics can be classified into lower-level subdivisions for detection coverage, detection effectiveness, fault isolation and fault identification (diagnostics), and failure prognosis. State control metrics can be classified into response determination effectiveness and response effectiveness. These metrics are applied to each and every fault management control loop in the system, for each failure to which they apply, and probabilistically summed to determine the effectiveness of these fault management control loops to preserve the relevant system goals that they are intended to protect.

Johnson, Stephen B.↗

Robust Metric-Aligned Quad-Dominant Meshing Using L(sub p) Centroidal Voronoi Tessellation

We introduce a meshing algorithm that can be used to both generate and adapt meshes for bounded domains in an anisotropic manner. This is particularly beneficial when anisotropic flow features like shock waves or contact discontinuities are present in the computational domain. The algorithm presented in this paper is based upon meshing under the imposed Riemannian metric tensor, which controls the orientation and size of the mesh elements. In this way there is no need for user intervention to recognize these features. We demonstrate that the method indeed aligns the elements with the underlying metric and produces right-angled simplices that can be recombined into quadrilateral elements. The aim is to eventually incorporate this meshing strategy in the monolithic high-order spectral element solver that is currently being developed at NASA Ames. This paper has two main contributions: First, we demonstrate that we can generate quad-dominant metric-aligned meshes for bounded domains using a generalized form of L(sub p)-Centroidal Voronoi Tessellation (L(sub p)-CVT). Unlike previous works, we do not rely on a background mesh and discretize the bounded domain in a hierarchical way by first discretizing the boundaries and then the volume using the underlying metric. Second, we present an alternative for clipping the Voronoi cells on the boundary, which is common practice in CVT-based meshing algorithms, by reconstructing the Voronoi cells using the defined metric field. In this way we avoid the geometrical complexity of the clipping procedure and we show that we evaluate the energy and its gradient correctly. We show that the reconstruction of the computational domain is consistent with the Lloyds’ algorithm that is used to compute the L(sub p)-CVT.

Centroidal↗

Anisotropic Goal-Based Mesh Adaptation Metric Clarification and Development

Adaptive unstructured mesh techniques have a limited, but growing impact on production analysis workflows to control discretization error for reliable simulation results. Multiple independent implementations of flow solvers, anisotropic metric construction methods, and anisotropic mesh adaptation mechanics have matured. Goal-based metrics target estimated error in output functions, such as lift and drag, through the guidance of an adjoint solution. A unification of goal-based anisotropic metrics is presented for steady viscous flows, which is an active area of research. These goal-based metrics drive robust and efficient anisotropic mesh adaptation for the calculation of output functions. The super-convergent functional output error behavior of stabilized finite-element methods is exploited without a formal proof, and evidence of super-convergence is shown in numerical experiments. Mesh adapted drag and lift outputs for two simple bodies in compressible viscous flow show convergence of error to less than a single drag count. Asymptotic behavior established for relatively coarse meshes shows the efficiency of this goal-based metric when compared to solution interpolation error control and expert-guided meshing. Anisotropic mesh adaptation techniques are applied to a transport aircraft in a high-lift configuration where variation between approaches decreases with mesh refinement, but asymptotic behavior is not observed with available resources.

goal-based↗

A Superposed Metric for Spinning Black Hole Binaries Approaching Merger

We construct an approximate metric that represents the spacetime of spinning binary black holes (BBH) approaching merger. We build the metric as an analytical superposition of two Kerr metrics in harmonic coordinates, where we transform each black hole term with time-dependent boosts describing an inspiral trajectory. The velocities and trajectories of the boost are obtained by solving the post-Newtonian (PN) equations of motion at 3.5 PN order. We analyze the spacetime scalars of the new metric and we show that it is an accurate approximation of Einstein’s field equations in vacuum for a BBH system in the inspiral regime. Furthermore, to prove the effectiveness of our approach, we test the metric in the context of a 3D general relativistic magnetohydrodynamical (GRMHD) simulation of accreting minidisks around the black holes. We compare our results with a previous well-tested spacetime construction based on the asymptotic matching method. We conclude that our new spacetime is well-suited for long-term GRMHD simulations of spinning binary black holes on their way to the merger.

Luciano Combi↗

Using Trajectory Smoothness Metrics to Identify Drones in Radar Track Data

The identification of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) using trajectory data is considered. Specifically, a number of smoothness metrics are proposed, which can be used to distinguish UAS from other aerial objects even when they are engaged in accelerative maneuvers (non-constant-velocity flight). The metrics are evaluated on a data set from a UAS sense-and-avoid field test, which contains track data of aerial objects recorded by a vehicle-board radar system during a flight test. The metrics are found to effectively differentiate UAS from other objects such as birds for this data set. In addition, an initial statistical performance analysis of one of the smoothness metrics is undertaken, using 15 data sets deriving from multiple flight tests. The smoothness metric is shown to identify the target UAS with 95% accuracy (95% true positive rate), while achieving a false positive rate of less than 9%.

Sandip Roy↗

Study of Pairwise Deconfliction Metrics to Analyze Air Traffic Complexity in Upper Class E Airspace

Upper Class E Traffic Management (ETM) is envisioned to cooperatively facilitate operations of a diverse set of aerial vehicles, such as high-altitude long-endurance fixed-wing unmanned aircraft (low-speed and high-speed), high-altitude platforms, airships, stratospheric balloons, supersonic unmanned and commercial aircraft, etc., with a wide variety of mission types, performance characteristics, communication, navigation and surveillance capabilities, maneuverability, and on-board avionics in the National Airspace System (NAS) ’above’ 60,000 feet above mean sea level, without an active and direct control from human air traffic controllers. A diverse mixture of aerial vehicle types creates significant challenges in understanding air traffic complexity, which may not correlate strongly with air traffic density. One key step for determining air traffic complexity in upper class E airspace is to first understand pairwise deconfliction metrics such as reachability, reserve area, and reserve flight time for each pair of unique aerial vehicle types under potential conflict. Therefore, pairwise deconfliction metrics are first defined, and analytical equations are derived for conflict resolution using the heading change maneuver. Next, case studies are performed to analyze deconfliction metrics to avoid secondary conflicts in upper class E airspace. The study shows that pairwise deconfliction metrics are functions of maneuverability, performance characteristics, uncertainty in position and velocity, heading angle change, and conflict angle of aerial vehicles. The next step for this research is to build a mathematical model for air traffic complexity using pairwise deconfliction metrics and validate it in an upper Class E simulation environment.

Airspace Complexity↗

Metrics for Flight Operations: Application to Europa Clipper Tour Selection

Objective measures are ubiquitous in the formulation, design and implementation of deep space missions. Tour durations, flyby altitudes, propellant budgets, power consumption, and other metrics are essential to developing and managing NASA missions. But beyond the simple metrics of cost and workforce, it has been difficult to identify objective, quantitative measures that assist in evaluating choices made during formulation or implementation phases in terms of their impact on flight operations. As part of the development of the Europa Clipper Mission system, a set of operations metrics have been defined along with the necessary design information and software tooling to calculate them. We have applied these methods and metrics to help assess the impact to the flight team on the six options for the Clipper Tour that are currently being vetted for selection in the fall of 2021. To generate these metrics, the Clipper MOS team first designed the set of essential processes by which flight operations will be conducted, using a standard approach and template to identify (among other aspects) timelines for each process, along with their time constraints (e.g., uplinks for sequence execution). Each of the resulting 50 processes is documented in a common format and concurred by stakeholders. Process timelines were converted into generic schedules and workforce-loaded using COTS scheduling software, based on the inputs of the process authors and domain experts. Custom code was generated to create an operations schedule for a specific portion of Clipper's prime mission, with instances of a given process scheduled based on specific timing rules (e.g., process X starts once per week on Thursdays) or relative to mission events (e.g., sequence generation process begins on a Monday, at least three weeks before each Europa closest approach). Over a 5-month period, and for each of six Clipper candidate tours, the result was a 20,000+ line, workforce-loaded schedule that documents all of the process-driven work effort at the level of individual roles, along with a significant portion of the level-of-effort work. Post-processing code calculated the absolute and relative number of work hours during a nominal 5 day / 40 hour work week, the work effort during 2nd and 3rd shift, as well as 1st shift on weekends. The resultant schedules and shift tables were used to generate objective measures that can be related to both human factors and to operational risk and showed that Clipper tours which utilize 6:1 resonant (21.25 day) orbits instead of 4:1 resonant (14.17 day) orbits during the first dozen or so Europa flybys are advantageous to flight operations. A similar approach can be extended to assist missions in more objective assessments of a number of mission issues and trades, including tour selection and spacecraft design for operability.

Sarrel, Marc↗

Study of Pairwise Deconfliction Metrics to Analyze Air Traffic Complexity in Upper Class E Airspace

Upper Class E Traffic Management (ETM) is envisioned to cooperatively facilitate operations of a diverse set of aerial vehicles, such as high-altitude long-endurance fixed-wing unmanned aircraft (low-speed and high-speed), high-altitude platforms, airships, stratospheric balloons, supersonic unmanned and commercial aircraft, etc., with a wide variety of mission types, performance characteristics, communication, navigation and surveillance capabilities, maneuverability, and on-board avionics in the National Airspace System (NAS) ’above’ 60,000 feet above mean sea level, without an active and direct control from human air traffic controllers. A diverse mixture of aerial vehicle types creates significant challenges in understanding air traffic complexity, which may not correlate strongly with air traffic density. One key step for determining air traffic complexity in upper class E airspace is to first understand pairwise deconfliction metrics such as reachability, reserve area, and reserve flight time for each pair of unique aerial vehicle types under potential conflict. Therefore, pairwise deconfliction metrics are first defined, and analytical equations are derived for conflict resolution using the heading change maneuver. Next, case studies are performed to analyze deconfliction metrics to avoid secondary conflicts in upper class E airspace. The study shows that pairwise deconfliction metrics are functions of maneuverability, performance characteristics, uncertainty in position and velocity, heading angle change, and conflict angle of aerial vehicles. The next step for this research is to build a mathematical model for air traffic complexity using pairwise deconfliction metrics and validate it in an upper Class E simulation environment.

Airspace Complexity↗

Proof-of-Concept for a Long-Term Health Metric to Quantify End of Mission Health Status in Astronauts

NASA has long used Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) when high-stakes decisions need to be made about complex systems. For spaceflight medical risk, the Human Research Program’s Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) is a significant step towards robustly quantifying the risk to crew health during exploration missions. However, there remains a significant gap in the ability to comprehensively characterize and assess risk across the disparate functionalities and capabilities which comprise the entire Crew Health and Performance (CHP) system. To fill this gap, the Crew Health and Performance – Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CHP-PRA) project aims to perform risk characterization for the CHP system by assessing performance risk in addition to medical risk. This effort also includes quantifying Long-Term Health (LTH) risk in addition to in-mission risk outcomes within the CHP-PRA results. LTH risk encompasses the timeframe from immediately post-flight, through the rest of an astronaut’s career, through retirement, and until death. A proof-of-concept LTH risk metric is based on medical condition end-state, as defined by the Evidence Library, capturing the spaceflight specific medical impacts persisting into post-flight[1]. Condition outcomes in the Evidence Library progress through three Clinical Phases (CP): the diagnostic phase (CP1), the treatment/convalescent phase (CP2), and the end-state phase (CP3) which represents the detrimental effects of the condition after the crew member has recovered to the maximal extent. Each CP has an associated Task Impairment (TI), defined as the degree of crew incapacity due to experiencing the condition, and is quantified with a 0-1 range. Conditions with an associated CP3 (e.g. Sepsis, Traumatic Hypovolemic Shock, Sudden Cardiac Arrest, etc.) typically have serious consequences that can cause an astronaut to be fully or partially debilitated throughout the remainder of the mission. Consequently, the Cumulative CP3 TI End-of-Mission Health Status Metric is developed by CHP-PRA to quantify the cumulative effects of all conditions which progressed to the CP3 state throughout the entirety of the mission. Hence, this End-of-Mission Health Status Metric attempts to serve as an indicator of an astronaut’s health state at the time of landing. The severity of the lingering effects of in-mission medical events are dependent on mission activities and the level of available in-mission medical care. This allows the associated cumulative TI metric to be used in comparison with the crew’s end of mission health status for different levels of in-mission resources. This presentation provides the strategy for using CP3 as an LTH metric component, as well as a proof-of-concept demonstration of LTH risk characterization using this component.

long term health↗

Defining and applying an electricity demand flexibility benchmarking metrics framework for grid-interactive efficient commercial buildings

Building demand flexibility (DF) research has recently gained attention. To unlock building DF as a predictable grid resource, we must establish a quantitative understanding of the resource size, performance variability, and predictability based on large empirical datasets. Researchers have proposed various sets of theoretical metrics to measure this performance. Some metrics have been applied to simulation results, but most fall short of exploring the complexities in real building applications. There are practical metrics used in individual demand response field studies but they alone cannot fulfil the job of DF benchmarking across a diverse group of buildings. The electrical grid's geographically diverse and changing nature presents challenges to comparing building DF performance measured under different conditions (i.e., benchmarking DF). To address this challenge, a novel DF benchmarking framework focused on load shedding and shifting is presented; the foundation is a set of simple, proven single-event metrics with attributes describing event conditions. These enable benchmarking and visualization in different dimensions for identifying trends that represent how these attributes influence DF. To test its feasibility and scalability, the DF framework was applied to two case studies of 11 office buildings and 121 big-box retail buildings with demand response participation data. Furthermore, these examples provided a pathway for using both building level benchmarking and aggregation to extract insights into building DF about magnitude, consistency, and influential factors. Potential applications of the framework and real-world values have been identified for grid and building stakeholders.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A call to standardize metrics for monitoring baleen whales near marine construction activities

Effective monitoring is necessary to protect marine mammal species during the construction of offshore infrastructure. The tools for detecting or monitoring marine mammals span traditional (e.g., visual observers, optical cameras), to newer (e.g., passive acoustic monitoring, infrared cameras, tags), and emerging (e.g., satellite imagery, environmental DNA, dimethyl sulfide concentration) technologies. Some are better suited for use during offshore development; however, peer-reviewed literature does not typically evaluate and report on the performance of these various technologies. We define a minimum set of metrics related to efficacy (i.e., confusion matrix, precision and recall, probability of missed mitigation), detection range (i.e., maximum and reliable detection range, spatial resolution), and data delivery (i.e., detection latency, system reliability, temporal resolution) that we recommend are needed to assess the utility of monitoring technologies for this purpose. Following a literature review of relevant studies, we highlight which publications reported these metrics and used multiple technologies to compare relative performance. We also emphasize the benefits of multi-modal approaches and recommend performance assessments through modeling or large-scale collaborative field testing. These metrics will standardize data collection, reporting, and analysis; promote consistent and comparable results; and foster collaboration among developers, regulatory agencies, and scientists. This may lead to the co-development of technology that achieves multiple goals, has greater application, and can answer research questions while collecting data to fulfill permitting requirements. These metrics may also inform decisions on what systems regulatory agencies might consider using and reduce monitoring costs, which is critical to support the marine sector's rapid growth alongside marine mammal conservation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A review of water valuation metrics: Supporting sustainable water use in manufacturing

In the manufacturing sector, water has been often considered too cheap to conserve. Such thinking relies on water valuations that limit the value of water to the price paid. Using such simple methods, the share of water cost to total manufacturing cost is significantly small, <3%. As a result, conserving water and enabling technology uptake is difficult to justify economically and slow to advance, hindering progress toward sustainable water use. However, the value of water to a manufacturer is far greater than the price paid. Valuations such as the true cost of water consider the additional in-plant treatment and energy costs and have been gaining greater traction in the manufacturing sector. However, true cost alone still undervalues water by not accounting for economic and social costs related to scarcity and environmental externalities. This paper makes the case and presents a framework for valuing manufacturing water beyond the price paid and the true cost. The proposed fuller valuation of manufacturing water takes into account the internal and opportunity costs associated with the realization of water risks. The paper follows with a review of a wide range of water valuation metrics, both at the specific industry level and regional/economy-wide level. The use of various valuation metrics incorporating the relationship between the change in value with change in water use, such as marginal value of water, shadow price, and elasticity at the specific industry level, has been limited in the U.S. manufacturing sector. Further, a limited number of studies exist on data-intensive subjective evaluation techniques such as computable general equilibrium modeling and input-output modeling for regional water valuation. After reviewing water value metrics, several recent case studies from manufacturers from the literature are presented to illustrate both the promise and challenges of a fuller valuation of water as proposed here. Some large multinational corporations have moved toward assessing the value of water via supply chain sustainability initiatives, environmental profit and loss accounting, estimating risk-adjusted values of water, hydro-economic modeling, natural capital asset valuation, and developing value chain indices. This paper provides policymakers and technology developers a framework for monetizing water value beyond its true cost and current metrics. If adopted, such fuller water valuations can help make the business case for the development and deployment of cost-effective water-conserving technologies, thereby improving the sustainability of the manufacturing sector with respect to water.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Unified Metric for Fast Frequency Response in Low-Inertia Power Systems

Future power systems with more inverter-based resources (IBRs), will be vulnerable to frequency decline contingencies. Fast frequency response (FFR) provided by IBRs is a good candidate to arrest frequency excursions. Diverse types of FFR have been proposed, and some have been deployed in our power systems. Without a unified quantification of FFR, it is hard for the grid operators to compare and fully leverage the FFR capabilities of IBRs. This work introduces a potential unified metric that quantifies two key characteristics of FFR and describes its application to three prevailing FFR types. We then use metric-to-frequency mapping to validate the accuracy of the metric in predicting the impact of a given FFR on the trajectory of a frequency event. The results show that the proposed metric is simple yet accurately captures the ability of diverse forms of FFR to improve system frequency dynamics.

effective inertia↗