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A new technique for adaptation of fuzzy membership functions in a fuzzy inference system is proposed. The pointer technique relies upon the isolation of the specific membership functions that contributed to the final decision, followed by the updating of these functions' parameters using steepset descent.
Two fatal accidents involving the B737MAX resulted from the flight crews’ inability to overcome the effects of the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS). MCAS was designed to mimic the control column feel pressure and pitching behavior of the B737NG, which was the certification basis for the B737MAX. We briefly describe the potential role of formally modeling different perspectives during system design, and how such modeling can reveal gaps and conflicts between perspectives. We also discuss some of the relevant human factors issues involved in these accidents and how the aircraft’s behavior may have affected the pilots’ psychological states. Implications for automation design are considered.
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Electrifying water heating will require affordable, direct drop-in replacements for existing gas water heaters that meet consumer expectations for hot water delivery. For many replacement scenarios, affordability requires a replacement option with like-for-like physical product dimensions, and existing consumer expectations presume a large delivery capacity from a small water heater. This work explores the technical potential for hot water delivery capacity for a heat pump water heater (HPWH) powered from a common 120 V plug. Delivery capability in this work is quantified by two metrics: the First Hour Rating (FHR) defined in the Code of Federal Regulations, and a real-world draw profile that resulted in hot water runout during field studies of 120 V HPWHs. The work focuses on the common “tall-and-slim” gas water heater product category, with external product dimensions of 20 inch diameter and 60 inch height. Using a simulation model in DOE/ORNL Heat Pump Design Model, validated by experimental baseline testing of a commercially available 120 V HPWH model, several measures were evaluated to maximize the delivery capacity of a 120 V HPWH. The 120 V HPWH was constrained by 1) external product dimensions of 20 in diameter and 60 inch height, 2) electrical power of 1.5 kW (85% of the available power from a dedicated 120 V, 15 A circuit), and 3) commercially-available components. The measures implemented included a large compressor, a pumped loop with plate heat exchanger to maximize tank stratification, enlarged heat exchangers, and relatively thin insulation to maximize the water storage volume.
The estimation of rain drop size distribution (DSD) parameters from polarimetric radar observations is accomplished by first establishing a relationship between differential reflectivity (Z(sub dr)) and the central tendency of the rain DSD such as the median volume diameter (D0). Since Z(sub dr) does not provide a direct measurement of DSD central tendency, the relationship is typically derived empirically from rain drop and radar scattering models (e.g., D0 = F[Z (sub dr)] ). Past studies have explored the general sensitivity of these models to temperature, radar wavelength, the drop shape vs. size relation, and DSD variability. Much progress has been made in recent years in measuring the drop shape and DSD variability using surface-based disdrometers, such as the 2D Video disdrometer (2DVD), and documenting their impact on polarimetric radar techniques. In addition to measuring drop shape, another advantage of the 2DVD over earlier impact type disdrometers is its ability to resolve drop diameters in excess of 5 mm. Despite this improvement, the sampling limitations of a disdrometer, including the 2DVD, make it very difficult to adequately measure the maximum drop diameter (D(sub max)) present in a typical radar resolution volume. As a result, D(sub max) must still be assumed in the drop and radar models from which D0 = F[Z(sub dr)] is derived. Since scattering resonance at C-band wavelengths begins to occur in drop diameters larger than about 5 mm, modeled C-band radar parameters, particularly Z(sub dr), can be sensitive to D(sub max) assumptions. In past C-band radar studies, a variety of D(sub max) assumptions have been made, including the actual disdrometer estimate of D(sub max) during a typical sampling period (e.g., 1-3 minutes), D(sub max) = C (where C is constant at values from 5 to 8 mm), and D(sub max) = M*D0 (where the constant multiple, M, is fixed at values ranging from 2.5 to 3.5). The overall objective of this NASA Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM/PMM Science Team)-funded study is to document the sensitivity of DSD measurements, including estimates of D0, from C-band Z(sub dr) and reflectivity to this range of D(sub max) assumptions. For this study, GPM Ground Validation 2DVD's were operated under the scanning domain of the UAHuntsville ARMOR C-band dual-polarimetric radar. Approximately 7500 minutes of DSD data were collected and processed to create gamma size distribution parameters using a truncated method of moments approach. After creating the gamma parameter datasets the DSD's were then used as input to a T-matrix model for computation of polarimetric radar moments at C-band. All necessary model parameterizations, such as temperature, drop shape, and drop fall mode, were fixed at typically accepted values while the D(sub max) assumption was allowed to vary in sensitivity tests. By hypothesizing a DSD model with D(sub max) (fit) from which the empirical fit to D0 = F[Z(sub dr)] was derived via non-linear least squares regression and a separate reference DSD model with D(sub max) (truth), bias and standard error in D0 retrievals were estimated in the presence of Z(sub dr) measurement error and hypothesized mismatch in D(sub max) assumptions. Although the normalized standard error for D0 = F[Z(sub dr)r] can increase slightly (as much as from 11% to 16% for all 7500 DSDs) when the D(sub max) (fit) does not match D(sub max) (truth), the primary impact of uncertainty in D(sub max) is a potential increase in normalized bias error in D0 (from 0% to as much as 10% over all 7500 DSDs, depending on the extent of the mismatch between D(sub max) (fit) and D(sub max) (truth)). For DSDs characterized by large Z(sub dr) (Z(sub dr) > 1.5 to 2.0 dB), the normalized bias error for D0 estimation at C-band is sometimes unacceptably large (> 10%), again depending on the extent of the hypothesized D(sub max) mismatch. Modeled errors in D0 retrievals from Z(sub dr) at C-band are demonstrated in detail and comparedo similar modeled retrieval errors at S-band and X-band where the sensitivity to D(sub max) is expected to be less. The impact of D(sub max) assumptions to the retrieval of other DSD parameters such as Nw, the liquid water content normalized intercept parameter, are also explored. Likely implications for DSD retrievals using C-band polarimetric radar for GPM are assessed by considering current community knowledge regarding D(sub max) and quantifying the statistical distribution of Z(sub dr) from ARMOR over a large variety of meteorological conditions. Based on these results and the prevalence of C-band polarimetric radars worldwide, a call for more emphasis on constraining our observational estimate of D(sub max) within a typical radar resolution volume is made
Hamiltonian truncation is a non-perturbative numerical method for calculating observables of a quantum field theory. The starting point for this method is to truncate the interacting Hamiltonian to a finite-dimensional space of states spanned by the eigenvectors of the free Hamiltonian H_0 H 0 with eigenvalues below some energy cutoff E_\text{max} E max . In this work, we show how to treat Hamiltonian truncation systematically using effective field theory methodology. We define the finite-dimensional effective Hamiltonian by integrating out the states above E_\text{max} E max . The effective Hamiltonian can be computed by matching a transition amplitude to the full theory, and gives corrections order by order as an expansion in powers of 1/E_\text{max} 1 / E max . The effective Hamiltonian is non-local, with the non-locality controlled in an expansion in powers of H_0/E_\text{max} H 0 / E max . The effective Hamiltonian is also non-Hermitian, and we discuss whether this is a necessary feature or an artifact of our definition. We apply our formalism to 2D \lambda\phi^4 λ ϕ 4 theory, and compute the the leading 1/E_\text{max}^2 1 / E max 2 corrections to the effective Hamiltonian. We show that these corrections nontrivially satisfy the crucial property of separation of scales. Numerical diagonalization of the effective Hamiltonian gives residual errors of order 1/E_\text{max}^3 1 / E max 3 , as expected by our power counting. We also present the power counting for 3D \lambda \phi^4 λ ϕ 4 theory and perform calculations that demonstrate the separation of scales in this theory.
We present new ultraviolet (UV) polarimetry of the well-studied interstellar line of sight toward HD 204827 obtained with the Faint Object Spectrograph on Hubble Space Telescope. HD 204827 is of great interest because the dust along this line of sight has extremely low values of both lambda(sub max) and R(sub V). Its far-UV extinction is very large, reflecting its small R(sub V) value. In addition, we reexamine the entire sample of 14 interstellar lines of sight for which there are now UV polarization data. We find that the previously suggested relationship between lambda(sub max) and the wavelength dependence of the polarization in the UV is strongly supported by the data for this larger sample including HD 204827. Seven stars with lambda(sub max) greater than or equal to 0.54 micron agree well with an extrapolation of the Serkowski relation into the UV while seven stars with lambda(sub max) less than or equal to 0.53 micron show polarization in excess of the Serkowski extrapolation (super-Serkowski). However, the division of the observed lines of sight into Serkowski and super-Serkowski categories is artificial. In fact, the amount of polarization in the UV is correlated with a single parameter, lambda(sub max). This may indicate that there is a mean interstellar polarization law analogous to the mean interstellar extinction law of Cardelli, Calyton, & Mathis which is based on R(sub V). The data are consistent with a linear relationship between 1/lambda(sub max) and rho(UV)/rho(sub max) but more data are needed to define the functional form. We suggest that the Serkowski and super-Serkowski designations be replaced by high and low lambda(sub max) which are more physically descriptive. At the same time, we note that all seven super-Serkowski (low lambda(sub max)) stars lie in a relatively small region of the sky between l(sup II) = 90 deg - 150 deg and b = -5 deg - 15 deg. These stars all lie in or behind a spur of the local Orion spiral arm. Similarly, most of the Serkowski (high lambda(sub max) stars lie in or near the Scorpio-Centaurus OB Association. So lines of sight covering larger areas of the sky are needed to test the universality of the lambda(sub max)/UV polarization relationship. The recent discovery of warm dust near HD 197770 suggests the possibility that a mechanism other than the traditional alignment to the Galactic magnetic field may be invoked to explain its 2175 A polarization bump.
High engineering critical current density (J E of 1300 A/mm 2 at 4.2 K and 15 T) in Bi-2212 round wire has been achieved through a partial melt, overpressure heat treatment process. J E varies strongly with processing conditions, particularly the maximum heat treatment temperature (T max ). Increasing T max results in longer time in the melt (defined as the time between when Bi-2212 melts on heating and when Bi-2212 begins to form on cooling), more bridging between the filaments, lower J E , and higher ac losses. A wide processing window with a large range of T max that has a nearly constant J E is desired for processing large coils with large thermal mass and significant thermal time constants that may make precise control over the desired temperature – time profiles uncertain. Accordingly, we wanted to explore broadening the T max window by controlling the Bi-2212 powder melting or wire architecture design. In this work, we report on studies of the performance variation with T max for two production wires with a filling factor of about 20% and 85 × 18 filaments where filament size was varied by changing the wire diameter, a process which also shortens the distance between filaments. We found that wires with smaller filament diameter (9 to 11 μm) showed a peak J E at the low end of T max and also a J E that was more sensitive to T max . A J E – T max plot showed a plateau J E (4.2 K, 5 T) of ~1100 A/mm 2 between T max of 886 and 894 °C for 1.0 and 1.2 mm wires, where J E is less sensitive to the wire diameter and T max . This J E plateau range is a preferred processing window for achieving high J E in coils.
OBJECTIVES: The study assessed whether hemodynamic parameters of left atrial (LA) systolic function could be estimated noninvasively using Doppler echocardiography. BACKGROUND: Left atrial systolic function is an important aspect of cardiac function. Doppler echocardiography can measure changes in LA volume, but has not been shown to relate to hemodynamic parameters such as the maximal value of the first derivative of the pressure (LA dP/dt(max)). METHODS: Eighteen patients in sinus rhythm were studied immediately before and after open heart surgery using simultaneous LA pressure measurements and intraoperative transesophageal echocardiography. Left atrial pressure was measured with a micromanometer catheter, and LA dP/dt(max) during atrial contraction was obtained. Transmitral and pulmonary venous flow were recorded by pulsed Doppler echocardiography. Peak velocity, and mean acceleration and deceleration, and the time-velocity integral of each flow during atrial contraction was measured. The initial eight patients served as the study group to derive a multilinear regression equation to estimate LA dP/dt(max) from Doppler parameters, and the latter 10 patients served as the test group to validate the equation. A previously validated numeric model was used to confirm these results. RESULTS: In the study group, LA dP/dt(max) showed a linear relation with LA pressure before atrial contraction (r = 0.80, p < 0.005), confirming the presence of the Frank-Starling mechanism in the LA. Among transmitral flow parameters, mean acceleration showed the strongest correlation with LA dP/dt(max) (r = 0.78, p < 0.001). Among pulmonary venous flow parameters, no single parameter was sufficient to estimate LA dP/dt(max) with an r2 > 0.30. By stepwise and multiple linear regression analysis, LA dP/dt(max) was best described as follows: LA dP/dt(max) = 0.1 M-AC +/- 1.8 P-V - 4.1; r = 0.88, p < 0.0001, where M-AC is the mean acceleration of transmitral flow and P-V is the peak velocity of pulmonary venous flow during atrial contraction. This equation was tested in the latter 10 patients of the test group. Predicted and measured LA dP/dt(max) correlated well (r = 0.90, p < 0.0001). Numerical simulation verified that this relationship held across a wide range of atrial elastance, ventricular relaxation and systolic function, with LA dP/dt(max) predicted by the above equation with r = 0.94. CONCLUSIONS: A combination of transmitral and pulmonary venous flow parameters can provide a hemodynamic assessment of LA systolic function.
The failure of bulk metallic glasses (BMGs) during plastic deformation at room temperature is abrupt and instantaneous, while the analysis of precursor information based on avalanche events helps predict catastrophic failure. An acoustic emission (AE) signal can provide accurate precursor information for material failure, due to its sensitive and high fast calculation ability. In the current study, AE monitoring tests are carried out during uniaxial compression tests of BMGs at different strain rates. The AE experimental failure threshold, E max , is proposed on the basis of AE cumulative energy, which reflects the intensity of damage evolution at different loading conditions. Compared with the critical shear band velocity (CSBV) associated with stick-slip dynamics of serrated flow, E max is a more sensitive failure parameter since it is connected with the local microscopic changes that occur during the material response process. Here, the E max is obtained prior to reaching the CSBV since the calculation of these two avalanches analysis focuses on the different stages of shear band growth. In particular, AE events are related to the “dry” friction process in the first stage, however, the CSBV is responsible for the “viscous” glide in the second stage. Therefore, Emax is not affected by the complex interactions between the shear bands during the stick-slip process. The maximum avalanche of serrated flow, S max , is proposed as the experimental failure threshold, which depends on the applied strain rate as S max ~ $\dot{ε}$ –λ . According to the relationship of E max and S max , the theoretical failure threshold, E max , follows a criterion E max = 2545$\dot{ε}$ –λ - 4468, where λ is equivalent to 0.15 for this work. Finally, combining the different calculations and AE measurements, this model gives new insights to predict the deformation failure behavior of Zr-based BMGs.
Leaf trait relationships are widely used to predict ecosystem function in Terrestrial Biosphere Models (TBMs), in which leaf maximum carboxylation capacity (V c,max ), an important trait for modelling photosynthesis, can be inferred from other easier- to-measure traits. However, whether trait-V c,max relationships are robust across different forest types remains unclear. Here we used measurements of leaf traits, including one morphological trait (leaf mass per area), three biochemical traits (leaf water content, area-based leaf nitrogen content, and leaf chlorophyll content), one physiological trait (V c,max ), as well as leaf reflectance spectra, and explored their relationships within and across three contrasting forest types in China. We found weak and forest type-specific relationships between V c,max and the four morphological and biochemical traits (R 2 ≤ 0.15), indicated by significantly changing slopes and intercepts across forest types. In contrast, reflectance spectroscopy effectively collapsed the differences in the trait-V c,max relationships across three forest biomes into a single robust model for V c,max (R 2 = 0.77), and also accurately estimated the four traits (R 2 = 0.75-0.94). Furthermore, these findings challenge the traditional use of empirical trait-V c,max relationships in TBMs for estimating terrestrial plant photosynthesis, but also highlight spectroscopy as an efficient alternative for characterizing V c,max and multi-trait variability, with critical insights into ecosystem modeling and functional trait ecology.
Photosynthetic acclimation to both warming and elevated CO 2 of boreal trees remains a key uncertainty in modelling the response of photosynthesis to future climates. We investigated the impact of increased growth temperature and elevated CO 2 on photosynthetic capacity (V cmax and J max ) in mature trees of two North American boreal conifers, tamarack and black spruce. We show that V cmax and J max at a standard temperature of 25°C did not change with warming, while V cmax and J max at their thermal optima (T opt ) and growth temperature (T g ) increased. Moreover, V cmax and J max at either 25°C, T opt or T g decreased with elevated CO 2 . The J max /V cmax ratio decreased with warming when assessed at both T opt and T g but did not significantly vary at 25°C. The J max /V cmax increased with elevated CO 2 at either reference temperature. We found no significant interaction between warming and elevated CO 2 on all traits. If this lack of interaction between warming and elevated CO 2 on the V cmax , J max and J max /V cmax ratio is a general trend, it would have significant implications for improving photosynthesis representation in vegetation models. However, future research is required to investigate the widespread nature of this response in a larger number of species and biomes.
A computational and design study on an airfoil and high-lift flap for the X-57 Maxwell Distributed Electric Propulsion (DEP) testbed aircraft was conducted. The aircraft wing sizing study resulted in a wing area of 66.67 sq ft and aspect ratio of 15 with a design requirement of V(stall) = 58 KEAS, at a gross weight of 3,000 lb. To meet this goal an aircraft C(L,max) of 4.0 was required. The design cruise condition is 150 KTAS at 8,000 ft. This resulted in airfoil requirements of c(l) is approximately 0.90 for the cruise condition at Re = 2.35 x 10 (exp 6). A flapped airfoil with a c(l,max) of approximately 2.5 or greater, at Re = 1.0 x 10 (exp 6), was needed to have enough lift to meet the stall requirement with the DEP system. MSES computational analyses were conducted on the GAW-1, GAW-2, and the NACA 5415 airfoil sections, however they had limitations in either high drag or low c(l,max) on the cruise airfoil, which was the impetus for a new design. A design was conducted to develop a low drag airfoil for the X-57 cruise conditions with high c(l,max). The final design was the GNEW5BP93B airfoil with a minimum drag coefficient of c(d) = 0.0053 at c(l) = 0.90 and achieved laminar flow back to 69% chord on the upper surface and 62% chord on the lower surface. With fully turbulent flow, the drag increases to c(d) = 0.0120. The predicted maximum lift with turbulent flow is a c(l,max) of 1.95 at alpha = 19 deg. The airfoil is characterized by relatively flat pressure gradient regions on both surfaces at alpha = 0 deg, and aft camber to get extra lift out of the lower surface concave region. A 25% chord slotted flap was designed and analyzed with MSES for a 30 deg flap deflection. Additional 30 deg and 40 deg flap deflection analyses for two flap positions were conducted with USM3D using several turbulence models, for two angles of attack, to assess near c(l,max) with varied flap position. The maximum c(l) varied between 2.41 and 3.35. An infinite-span powered high-lift study was conducted on a GAW-1 constant chord 40 deg flapped airfoil section with FUN3D to quantify the airfoil lift increment that can be expected from a DEP system. The 16.7 hp/propeller blown wing increases the maximum C(L) from 3.45 to C(L) = 6.43, which is an effective q ratio of 1.86. This indicates that if the unblown high-lift flapped airfoil of the X-57 airplane achieves a c(l,max) of 2.78, then the high-lift augmentation blowing could yield a sectional lift coefficient of approximately 4.95 at c(l,max). Finally, a computational study was conducted with FUN3D on an infinite-span constant chord GAW-1 cruise airfoil to determine the impact of high-lift propeller diameter to wing chord ratio on the lift increment of the DEP system. A constant diameter propeller and nacelle size were used in the study. Three computational grids were made with airfoil chords of 0.5*chord, 1.0*chord, and 2.0*chord. Results of the propeller diameter to wing chord ratio study indicated that the blown to unblown C(L) ratio increased as the chord was decreased. However, because of the increase in relative size of the high-lift nacelle to the wing, which impacted wing lift performance, the study indicated that a propeller diameter to wing chord ratio of 1.0 gives the overall best maximum lift on the wing with the DEP system.
Our project is about developing a tool to implement conversion of 3D Computer Aided Design (CAD) models produced with software such as Delmia, 3DS Max, or Maya, into a size and format compatible with the Unity 3D environment. RMIT will be used to aid KSC engineering personnel in the design, development, testing, operations, and training on spacecraft, launch vehicles, facilities, and ground support equipment. For our project, we are using Blender, a free/open-source 3D graphics software, with the goal of developing, testing, and deploying a 3D CAD model converter tool. I worked on using Blender to import 3D CAD models exported from CATIA software into Collada file format. The Collada file format has file extension DAE. Importing the Collada DAE file as is into Blender, generates dots and dashes. In 3DS Max, there is an existing OpenCollada plugin and with that plugin, 3DS Max can import the DAE file successfully. But, Blender does not seem to have an OpenCollada plugin, so I worked on writing a new OpenCollada plugin for Blender. Since 3DS Max was able to display the image, I looked into comparing differences between the original DAE file and the DAE file exported from 3DS Max using the OpenCollada plugin. As Collada documents describing digital assets are XML files with file extension DAE, Collada files contains XML tags, making them easily modifiable. After some research, it appears that Blender does not like primitive 2D tags like tristrips and trifans. Changing those tags to polygons slightly improved the image, but the pieces were exploded. I found after further research comparing differences between the original file and the file exported from 3DS Max that the values inside the translate tags in the original file are scaled down by a factor of 25.4 in the exported file from 3DS Max, representing the millimeters to inches conversion (1 inch = 25.4 millimeters). After scaling down values inside all of the translate tags by 25.4, the exploded pieces stuck back in, but the image needed further improvement. I have been able to create a new plugin in Blender that takes the original DAE file, replaces the primitive 2D tags tristrips and trifans with polygons, scales down the values inside the translate tags by a factor of 25.4, and saves the changes into a temporary DAE file. After the temporary DAE file is imported into Blender, the temp file is then deleted, keeping the original DAE file intact. Starting with a DAE file that is exported using the NASA Enterprise Visualization Application (NEVA), a Collada exporter, from CATIA gives better results. NEVA is a Design Visualization product that is used for exporting 3D models from CATIA. With NEVA, the up axis is defined in the top-level node if navigation gravity is enabled. With that file, just replacing the primitive tags tristrips and trifans with polygons in yields a much improved image in Blender. As we identify more differences between the original DAE file and the DAE file exported from 3DS Max, this plugin can be improved further. Our goal is to have a model that is formatted and sized for import into Unity, and we are trying out different 3D programs to see which will work best.
Two-dimensional (2D) transition metal carbides and nitrides, known as MXenes, are a fast-growing family of 2D materials. MXenes 2D flakes have n + 1 (n = 1-4) atomic layers of transition metals interleaved by carbon/nitrogen layers, but to-date remain limited in composition to one or two transition metals. In this study, by implementing four transition metals, we report the synthesis of multi-principal-element high-entropy M 4 C 3 T x MXenes. Specifically, we introduce two high-entropy MXenes, TiVNbMoC 3 T x and TiVCrMoC 3 T x , as well as their precursor TiVNbMoAlC 3 and TiVCrMoAlC 3 high-entropy MAX phases. We used a combination of real and reciprocal space characterization (X-ray diffraction, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, and scanning transmission electron microscopy) to establish the structure, phase purity, and equimolar distribution of the four transition metals in high-entropy MAX and MXene phases. We use first-principles calculations to compute the formation energies and explore synthesizability of these high-entropy MAX phases. We also show that when three transition metals are used instead of four, under similar synthesis conditions to those of the four-transition-metal MAX phase, two different MAX phases can be formed (i.e., no pure single-phase forms). This finding indicates the importance of configurational entropy in stabilizing the desired single-phase high-entropy MAX over multiphases of MAX, which is essential for the synthesis of phase-pure high-entropy MXenes. The synthesis of high-entropy MXenes significantly expands the compositional variety of the MXene family to further tune their properties, including electronic, magnetic, electrochemical, catalytic, high temperature stability, and mechanical behavior.
For many species, vision is one of the most important sensory modalities for mediating essential tasks that include navigation, predation and foraging, predator avoidance, and numerous social behaviors. The vertebrate visual process begins when photons of the light interact with rod and cone photoreceptors that are present in the neural retina. Vertebrate visual photopigments are housed within these photoreceptor cells and are sensitive to a wide range of wavelengths that peak within the light spectrum, the latter of which is a function of the type of chromophore used and how it interacts with specific amino acid residues found within the opsin protein sequence. Minor differences in the amino acid sequences of the opsins are known to lead to large differences in the spectral peak of absorbance (i.e. the λ max value). In our prior studies, we developed a new approach that combined homology modeling and molecular dynamics simulations to gather structural information associated with chromophore conformation, then used it to generate statistical models for the accurate prediction of λ max values for photopigments derived from Rh1 and Rh2 amino acid sequences. In the present study, we test our novel approach to predict the λ max of phylogenetically distant Sws2 cone opsins. To build a model that can predict the λ max using our approach presented in our prior studies, we selected a spectrally-diverse set of 11 teleost Sws2 photopigments for which both amino acid sequence information and experimentally measured λ max values are known. The final first-order regression model, consisting of three terms associated with chromophore conformation, was sufficient to predict the λ max of Sws2 photopigments with high accuracy. This study further highlights the breadth of our approach in reliably predicting λ max values of Sws2 cone photopigments, evolutionary-more distant from template bovine RH1, and provided mechanistic insights into the role of known spectral tuning sites.
For the common data-available interval of cycles 12 to 22, we show that annual averages of sunspot number for minimum years (R(min)) and maximum years (R(max)) and of the minimum value of the aa geomagnetic index in the vicinity of sunspot minimum (aa(min)) are consistent with the notion that each has embedded within its respective record a long-term, linear, secular increase. Extrapolating each of these fits to cycle 23, we infer that it will have R(min) = 12.7 +/- 5.7, R(max) = 176.7 +/- 61.8, and aa(min) = 21.0 +/- 5.0 (at the 95-percent level of confidence), suggesting that cycle 23 will have R(min) greater than 7.0, R(max) greater than 114.9, and aa(min) greater than 16.0 (at the 97.5-percent level of confidence). Such values imply that cycle 23 will be larger than average in size and, consequently (by the Waidmeier effect), will be a fast riser. We also infer from the R(max) and aa(min) records the existence of an even- odd cycle effect, one in which the odd-following cycle is numerically larger in value than the even-leading cycle. For cycle 23, the even-odd cycle effect suggests that R(max) greater than 157.6 and aa(min) greater than 19.0, values that were recorded for cycle 22, the even-leading cycle of the current even-odd cycle pair (cycles 22 and 23). For 1995, the annual average of the aa index measured about 22, while for sunspot number, it was about 18. Because aa(min) usually lags R(min) by 1 year (true for 8 of 11 cycles) and 1996 seems destined to be the year of R(min) for cycle 23, it may be that aa(min) will occur in 1997, although it could occur in 1996 in conjunction with R(min) (true for 3 of 11 cycles). Because of this ambiguity in determining aa(min), no formal prediction based on the correlation of R(max) against aa(min), having r = 0.90, or of R(max) against the combined effects of R(min) and aa(min)-the bivariate technique-having r = 0.99, is possible until 1997, at the earliest.