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NASA NTRS2018

The Salience of Nonlinearities in the Boreal Winter Response to ENSO: North Pacific and North America

The prominence of nonlinearities in the response to El Niño as compared to La Niña, to moderate El Niño events as compared to extreme El Ninño events, and to different flavors of El Niño events, are analyzed using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model. In the Central North Pacific region where the sea level pressure response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) peaks, nonlinearities are relatively muted. In contrast, changes to the east of this region (i.e. the far-Northeastern Pacific) and to the north of this region (over Alaska) in response to different ENSO phases are more clearly nonlinear, and become statistically robust after more than 15 events are considered. The relative prominence of these nonlinearities is related to the zonal wavenumber of the tropical precipitation response. Associated with these nonlinearities over the far-Northeastern Pacific are nonlinearities in precipitation over Western United States and surface temperature over Northwest North America and Midwestern United States. In all regions at least 15 events of each type are necessary before nonlinearities can be identified as statistically significant at the 95% confidence level due to the presence of internal atmospheric variability. As there have only been a similar number of ENSO events to the total needed for significance since 1920, it is not surprising that it has been difficult to establish statistically significant nonlinearities using observational data.

Nonlinearities↗

NASA NTRS1979

High speed cylindrical rolling element bearing analysis 'CYBEAN' - Analytic formulation

This paper documents the analytic foundation and software architecture for the computerized mathematical simulation of high speed cylindrical rolling element bearing behavior. The software, CYBEAN (CYlindrical BEaring ANalysis), considers a flexible, variable geometry outer ring, EHD films, roller centrifugal and quasidynamic loads, roller tilt and skew, mounting fits, cage and flange interactions. The representation includes both steady state and time transient simulation of thermal interactions internal to and coupled with the surroundings of the bearing. A sample problem illustrating program use is presented.

Kleckner, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Geomagnetic Variability and Predictability

The Earth's magnetic field varies on time scales from seconds to millions of years. These variations can be measured directly by ground observatories and satellites, and indirectly through laboratories. They are from different electromagnetic processes in magnetosphere and ionosphere (external), ocean and crust (surface), and deep in the Earth's fluid outer core (internal). Of the measured magnetic signals, 95% is from the core, and is called the core field, or internal field. Variation of the core field, often called the geomagnetic secular variation (SV), is the manifestation of the magnetohydrodynamic processes in the core. Therefore, SV provides rich information on the core dynamical state that is then critical for understanding the geophysical mechanisms of the SV, the core-mantle interactions, and contribution of mass transport inside the core on Earth's gravity variation. Traditionally, the core state is probed via two independent methodologies: core flow inversion from the observed SV, and pure numerical dynamo simulation. The former is driven by observations, but does not include necessary interactions among physical variables; the latter is dynamically consistent, but is not constrained by any observation. Therefore, both are very limited in providing appropriate estimates of the core state. To avoid these limitations, a new approach, geomagnetic data assimilation, appears recently. In this approach, simulation results (model forecasts) are constantly corrected with observations, the corrected solutions (analysis), are then used as the initial conditions to make more accurate forecasts of future. Recent studies have demonstrated successfully that assimilation solutions are different from those of free running models. These new solutions are better estimates of the core state, and have been used to provide accurate prediction of SV for the period from 2010 to 2015. This prediction is part of the IGRF field model for international community applications.

Kuang, Weijia↗

NASA NTRS2010

Ocean Turbulence, III: New GISS Vertical Mixing Scheme

We have found a new way to express the solutions of the RSM (Reynolds Stress Model) equations that allows us to present the turbulent diffusivities for heat, salt and momentum in a way that is considerably simpler and thus easier to implement than in previous work. The RSM provides the dimensionless mixing efficiencies Gamma-alpha (alpha stands for heat, salt and momentum). However, to compute the diffusivities, one needs additional information, specifically, the dissipation Epsilon. Since a dynamic equation for the latter that includes the physical processes relevant to the ocean is still not available, one must resort to different sources of information outside the RSM to obtain a complete Mixing Scheme usable in OGCMs. As for the RSM results, we show that the Gamma-alpha s are functions of both Ri and Rq (Richardson number and density ratio representing double diffusion, DD); the Gamma-alpha are different for heat, salt and momentum; in the case of heat, the traditional value Gamma-h = 0.2 is valid only in the presence of strong shear (when DD is inoperative) while when shear subsides, NATRE data show that Gamma-h can be three times as large, a result that we reproduce. The salt Gamma-s is given in terms of Gamma-h. The momentum Gamma-m has thus far been guessed with different prescriptions while the RSM provides a well defined expression for Gamma-m(Ri,R-rho). Having tested Gamma-h, we then test the momentum Gamma-m by showing that the turbulent Prandtl number Gamma-m/Gamma-h vs. Ri reproduces the available data quite well. As for the dissipation epsilon, we use different representations, one for the mixed layer (ML), one for the thermocline and one for the ocean;s bottom. For the ML, we adopt a procedure analogous to the one successfully used in PB (planetary boundary layer) studies; for the thermocline, we employ an expression for the variable epsilon/N(exp 2) from studies of the internal gravity waves spectra which includes a latitude dependence; for the ocean bottom, we adopt the enhanced bottom diffusivity expression used by previous authors but with a state of the art internal tidal energy formulation and replace the fixed Gamma-alpha = 0.2 with the RSM result that brings into the problem the Ri, R-rho dependence of the Gamma-alpha; the unresolved bottom drag, which has thus far been either ignored or modeled with heuristic relations, is modeled using a formalism we previously developed and tested in PBL studies. We carried out several tests without an OGCM. Prandtl and flux Richardson numbers vs. Ri. The RSM model reproduces both types of data satisfactorily. DD and Mixing efficiency Gamma-h(Ri,Rq). The RSM model reproduces well the NATRE data. Bimodal epsilon-distribution. NATRE data show that epsilon (Ri < 1) approximately equals 10epsilon(Ri > 1), which our model reproduces. Heat to salt flux ratio. In the Ri much greater than 1 regime, the RSM predictions reproduce the data satisfactorily. NATRE mass diffusivity. The z-profile of the mass diffusivity reproduces well the measurements at NATRE. The local form of the mixing scheme is algebraic with one cubic equation to solve.

Canuto, V. M.↗

DOE OSTI2021

How do intermittency and simultaneous processes obfuscate the Arctic influence on midlatitude winter extreme weather events?

Abstract Pronounced changes in the Arctic environment add a new potential driver of anomalous weather patterns in midlatitudes that affect billions of people. Recent studies of these Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages, however, state inconsistent conclusions. A source of uncertainty arises from the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Thermodynamic forcing by a rapidly warming Arctic contributes to weather events through changing surface heat fluxes and large-scale temperature and pressure gradients. But internal shifts in atmospheric dynamics—the variability of the location, strength, and character of the jet stream, blocking, and stratospheric polar vortex (SPV)—obscure the direct causes and effects. It is important to understand these associated processes to differentiate Arctic-forced variability from natural variability. For example in early winter, reduced Barents/Kara Seas sea-ice coverage may reinforce existing atmospheric teleconnections between the North Atlantic/Arctic and central Asia, and affect downstream weather in East Asia. Reduced sea ice in the Chukchi Sea can amplify atmospheric ridging of high pressure near Alaska, influencing downstream weather across North America. In late winter southward displacement of the SPV, coupled to the troposphere, leads to weather extremes in Eurasia and North America. Combined tropical and sea ice conditions can modulate the variability of the SPV. Observational evidence for Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages continues to accumulate, along with understanding of connections with pre-existing climate states. Relative to natural atmospheric variability, sea-ice loss alone has played a secondary role in Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages; the full influence of Arctic amplification remains uncertain.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2026

A theoretical index for understanding distinct land relative humidity trends in observations, reanalyses, and models

Land surface relative humidity (RH) is a key variable in the coupled land–atmosphere system that profoundly influences terrestrial hydroclimate and ecosystems. Yet historical changes in land RH are not well understood due to limited observations, biased reanalyses, and the lack of a framework for interpreting RH changes under multiple influencing factors. Here, we show that the spatiotemporal variability of land RH and its distinct historical trends among observations, reanalyses, and Earth system models are captured by a simple index based on the ratio of precipitation (P) to a modified potential evapotranspiration formulated independently of RH (PET°). The index provides a physical calibration of biased land RH in reanalyses and a quantitative framework for interpreting land RH changes. Over 1973–2024, land RH has decreased substantially, owing to the intrinsic rise in PET° with temperature and little increase in land precipitation. Reanalyses overestimate the observed RH decrease, consistent with exaggerated surface warming and precipitation decline. The index captures this coherent bias and enables a calibration using observed precipitation and temperature. Models simulate a wide range of land RH trends, but nearly all runs underrepresent the historical drying. The index captures the model spread and discrepancy and attributes them to contributions of precipitation and PET°. Weaker land RH decreases in models arise mainly from weaker subtropical precipitation declines, linked to muted intensification of subtropical highs and biased subtropical climatology. The model–observation discrepancy is unlikely explained by internal variability, implying model underestimation of forced RH decrease and a drier land future than current projections.

Earth system models↗

NASA NTRS1985

A survey of unified constitutive theories

The state of the art of time temperature dependent elastic viscoplastic constitutive theories which are based on the unified approach werre assessed. This class of constitutive theories is characterized by the use of kinetic equations and internal variables with appropriate evolutionary equations for treating all aspects of inelastic deformation including plasticity, creep, and stress relaxation. More than 10 such unified theories which are shown to satisfy the uniqueness and stability criteria imposed by Drucker's postulate and Ponter's inequalities are identified. The theories are compared for the types of flow law, kinetic equation, evolutionary equation of the internal variables, and treatment of temperature dependence. The similarities and differences of these theories are outlined in terms of mathematical formulations and illustrated by comparisons of theoretical calculations with experimental results which include monotonic stress-strain curves, cyclic hysteresis loops, creep and stress relaxation rates, and thermomechanical loops. Numerical methods used for integrating these stiff time temperature dependent constitutive equations are reviewed.

Chan, K. S.↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Intrinsic 150‐Day Periodicity of the Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Large‐Scale Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract The variability of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical large‐scale circulation is dominated by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), whose timescale is extensively used as a key metric in evaluating state‐of‐the‐art climate models. Past observational and theoretical studies suggest that the SAM lacks any internally generated (intrinsic) periodicity. Here, we show, using observations and a climate model hierarchy, that the SAM has an intrinsic 150‐day periodicity. This periodicity is robustly detectable in the power spectra and principal oscillation patterns (aka dynamical mode decomposition) of the zonal‐mean circulation, and in hemispheric‐scale precipitation and ocean surface wind stress. The 150‐day period is consistent with the predictions of a new reduced‐order model for the SAM, which suggests that this periodicity is associated with a complex interaction of turbulent eddies and zonal wind anomalies, as the latter propagate from low to high latitudes. These findings present a rare example of periodic oscillations arising from the internal dynamics of the extratropical turbulent circulations. Based on these findings, we further propose a new metric for evaluating climate models, and show that some of the previously reported shortcomings and improvements in simulating SAM's variability connect to the models' ability in reproducing this periodicity. We argue that this periodicity should be considered in evaluating climate models and understanding the past, current, and projected Southern Hemisphere climate variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2011

New Local, National and Regional Cereal Price Indices for Improved Identification of Food Insecurity

Large price increases over a short time period can be indicative of a deteriorating food security situation. Food price indices developed by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) are used to monitor food price trends at a global level, but largely reflect supply and demand conditions in export markets. However, reporting by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID)'s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) indicates that staple cereal prices in many markets of the developing world, especially in surplus-producing areas, often have a delayed and variable response to international export market price trends. Here we present new price indices compiled for improved food security monitoring and assessment, and specifically for monitoring conditions of food access across diverse food insecure regions. We found that cereal price indices constructed using market prices within a food insecure region showed significant differences from the international cereals price, and had a variable price dispersion across markets within each marketshed. Using satellite-derived remote sensing information that estimates local production and the FAO Cereals Index as predictors, we were able to forecast movements of the local or national price indices in the remote, arid and semi-arid countries of the 38 countries examined. This work supports the need for improved decision-making about targeted aid and humanitarian relief, by providing earlier early warning of food security crises.

Brown, Molly E.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Global Weather States and Their Properties from Passive and Active Satellite Cloud Retrievals

In this study, the authors apply a clustering algorithm to International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) cloud optical thickness-cloud top pressure histograms in order to derive weather states (WSs) for the global domain. The cloud property distribution within each WS is examined and the geographical variability of each WS is mapped. Once the global WSs are derived, a combination of CloudSat and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) vertical cloud structure retrievals is used to derive the vertical distribution of the cloud field within each WS. Finally, the dynamic environment and the radiative signature of the WSs are derived and their variability is examined. The cluster analysis produces a comprehensive description of global atmospheric conditions through the derivation of 11 WSs, each representing a distinct cloud structure characterized by the horizontal distribution of cloud optical depth and cloud top pressure. Matching those distinct WSs with cloud vertical profiles derived from CloudSat and CALIPSO retrievals shows that the ISCCP WSs exhibit unique distributions of vertical layering that correspond well to the horizontal structure of cloud properties. Matching the derived WSs with vertical velocity measurements shows a normal progression in dynamic regime when moving from the most convective to the least convective WS. Time trend analysis of the WSs shows a sharp increase of the fair-weather WS in the 1990s and a flattening of that increase in the 2000s. The fact that the fair-weather WS is the one with the lowest cloud radiative cooling capability implies that this behavior has contributed excess radiative warming to the global radiative budget during the 1990s.

histograms↗

DOE OSTI2023

National‐Scale Assessment of Total Gaseous Mercury Isotopes Across the United States

Abstract With the 2011 promulgation of the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the successful negotiation by the United Nations Environment Program of the Minamata Convention, emissions of mercury (Hg) have declined in the United States. While the declines in atmospheric Hg concentrations in North America are encouraging, linking the declines to changing domestic and global source portfolios remains challenging. To address these research gaps, the U.S. Geological Survey initiated the first national‐scale effort to establish a baseline of total gaseous mercury stable isotope values at 31 sites distributed across the United States. Results indicated that unique Hg sources, such as Hg evasion from an elemental Hg contaminated site or free tropospheric intrusions in high altitude sites, were distinguishable from background atmospheric values. Minor gradients were observed across the nation, with regions of heavy industrial activity demonstrating lower δ 202 Hg, but no consistent changes in other isotopes such as Δ 199 Hg and Δ 200 Hg were observed. Furthermore, δ 202 Hg was impacted by foliar uptake and senescence but trends varied between forested regions in the northeastern and midwestern United States. These data demonstrate regional emission sources and other environmental variables can impact total gaseous Hg (TGM) isotope values, highlighting the need to characterize atmospheric Hg isotopes over larger geographical areas to evaluate changes related to national and international Hg regulations.

Tate, Michael T.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Anomaly Detection in Test Equipment via Sliding Mode Observers

Nonlinear observers were originally developed based on the ideas of variable structure control, and for the purpose of detecting disturbances in complex systems. In this anomaly detection application, these observers were designed for estimating the distributed state of fluid flow in a pipe described by a class of advection equations. The observer algorithm uses collected data in a piping system to estimate the distributed system state (pressure and velocity along a pipe containing liquid gas propellant flow) using only boundary measurements. These estimates are then used to further estimate and localize possible anomalies such as leaks or foreign objects, and instrumentation metering problems such as incorrect flow meter orifice plate size. The observer algorithm has the following parts: a mathematical model of the fluid flow, observer control algorithm, and an anomaly identification algorithm. The main functional operation of the algorithm is in creating the sliding mode in the observer system implemented as software. Once the sliding mode starts in the system, the equivalent value of the discontinuous function in sliding mode can be obtained by filtering out the high-frequency chattering component. In control theory, "observers" are dynamic algorithms for the online estimation of the current state of a dynamic system by measurements of an output of the system. Classical linear observers can provide optimal estimates of a system state in case of uncertainty modeled by white noise. For nonlinear cases, the theory of nonlinear observers has been developed and its success is mainly due to the sliding mode approach. Using the mathematical theory of variable structure systems with sliding modes, the observer algorithm is designed in such a way that it steers the output of the model to the output of the system obtained via a variety of sensors, in spite of possible mismatches between the assumed model and actual system. The unique properties of sliding mode control allow not only control of the model internal states to the states of the real-life system, but also identification of the disturbance or anomaly that may occur.

Solano, Wanda M.↗

DOE OSTI2022

The air mycobiome is decoupled from the soil mycobiome in the California San Joaquin Valley

Abstract Dispersal is a key force in the assembly of fungal communities and the air is the dominant route of dispersal for most fungi. Understanding the dynamics of airborne fungi is important for determining their source and for helping to prevent fungal disease. This understanding is important in the San Joaquin Valley of California, which is home to 4.2 million people and where the airborne fungus Coccidioides is responsible for the most important fungal disease of otherwise healthy humans, coccidioidomycosis. The San Joaquin Valley is the most productive agricultural region in the United States, with the principal crops grown therein susceptible to fungal pathogens. Here, we characterize the fungal community in soil and air on undeveloped and agricultural land in the San Joaquin Valley using metabarcoding of the internal transcribed spacer 2 variable region of fungal rDNA. Using 1,002 individual samples, we report one of the most extensive studies of fungi sampled simultaneously from air and soil using modern sequencing techniques. We find that the air mycobiome in the San Joaquin Valley is distinct from the soil mycobiome, and that the assemblages of airborne fungi from sites as far apart as 160 km are far more similar to one another than to the fungal communities in nearby soils. Additionally, we present evidence that airborne fungi in the San Joaquin Valley are subject to dispersal limitation and cyclical intra‐annual patterns of community composition. Our findings are broadly applicable to understanding the dispersal of airborne fungi and the taxonomic structure of airborne fungal assemblages.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1976

A distribution benefits model for improved information on worldwide crop production. Volume 1: Model structure and application to wheat

The improved model is suitable for the study of benefits of worldwide information on a variety of crops. Application to the previously studied case of worldwide wheat production shows that about $108 million per year of distribution benefits to the United States would be achieved by a satellite-based wheat information system meeting the goals of LACIE. The model also indicates that improved information alone will not change world stock levels unless production itself is stabilized. The United States benefits mentioned above are associated with the reduction of price fluctuations within the year and the more effective use of international trade to balance supply and demand. Price fluctuations from year to year would be reduced only if production variability were itself reduced.

Andrews, J.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Performability evaluation of the SIFT computer

Performability modeling and evaluation techniques are applied to the SIFT computer as it might operate in the computational evironment of an air transport mission. User-visible performance of the total system (SIFT plus its environment) is modeled as a random variable taking values in a set of levels of accomplishment. These levels are defined in terms of four attributes of total system behavior: safety, no change in mission profile, no operational penalties, and no economic process whose states describe the internal structure of SIFT as well as relavant conditions of the environment. Base model state trajectories are related to accomplishment levels via a capability function which is formulated in terms of a 3-level model hierarchy. Performability evaluation algorithms are then applied to determine the performability of the total system for various choices of computer and environment parameter values. Numerical results of those evaluations are presented and, in conclusion, some implications of this effort are discussed.

Meyer, J. F.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Factors affecting pressure in Li-SOCl2 cells

A model was developed to describe internal pressure in a Li-SOCl2 cell as a function of state of charge and temperature. The model was used to generate sets of predicted pressure variations in a hypothetical 250-Ah cell with assumed ranges of cell design variables including initial void volume and inert gas pressure. Results were assessed to establish values of the cell design parameters that would yield a vent pressure within a temperature range that was deemed safe and also adequate for cell performance. Results indicate that a suitable design for this cell would require an initial void volume near 112 cu cm and inert gas pressure near 40 psi.

Frank, H.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Connecting Regional Aerosol Emissions Reductions to Local and Remote Precipitation Responses

The unintended climatic implications of aerosol and precursor emission reductions implemented to protect public health are poorly understood. We investigate the precipitation response to regional changes in aerosol emissions using three coupled chemistry-climate models: NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model 3 (GFDL-CM3), NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM1), and NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE2 (GISS-E2). Our approach contrasts a long present-day control simulation from each model (up to 400 years with perpetual year 2000 or 2005 emissions) with 14 individual aerosol emissions perturbation simulations (160-240 years each). We perturb emissions of sulfur dioxide and/or carbonaceous aerosol within six world regions and assess the significance of precipitation responses relative to internal variability determined by the control simulation and across the models. Global and regional precipitation mostly increases when we reduce regional aerosol emissions in the models, with the strongest responses occurring for sulfur dioxide emissions reductions from Europe and the United States. Precipitation responses to aerosol emissions reductions are largest in the tropics and project onto the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Regressing precipitation onto an Indo-Pacific zonal sea level pressure gradient index (a proxy for ENSO) indicates that the ENSO component of the precipitation response to regional aerosol removal can be as large as 20% of the total simulated response. Precipitation increases in the Sahel in response to aerosol reductions in remote regions because an anomalous interhemispheric temperature gradient alters the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). This mechanism holds across multiple aerosol reduction simulations and models.

Westervelt, Daniel M.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Long plasma duration operation analyses with an international multi-machine (tokamaks and stellarators) database

Combined high-fusion performance and long-pulse operation is one of the key integration challenges for fusion energy development in magnetic devices. Addressing these challenges requires an integrated vision of physics and engineering aspects with the purpose of simultaneously increasing time duration and fusion performance. Significant progress has been made in tokamaks and stellarators, including very recent achievement in duration and/or performance. This progress is reviewed by analyzing the experimental data (109 plasma pulses with a total of 3200 data points, i.e. on average 29 data per pulse) provided by ten tokamaks (in alphabetical order: Axially Symmetric Divertor Experiment Upgrade, DIII-D, Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak, Joint European Torus, JT-60 Upgrade, Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research, tokamak à configuration variable, Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor, Tore Supra, W Environment in Steady-State Tokamak) and two stellarators (Large Helical Device and Wendelstein 7-X) expanding the pioneering work of Kikuchi (Kikuchi M. and Azumi M. 2015 Frontiers in Fusion Research II: Introduction to Modern Tokamak Physics (Springer)). Data have been gathered up to January 2022 and coordination has been provided by the recently created International Energy Agency-International Atomic Energy Agency international Coordination on International Challenges on Long duration OPeration group. By exploiting the multi-machine international database, recent progress in terms of injected energies (e.g. 1730 MJ in L-mode, 425 MJ in H-mode), durations (1056 s in L-mode, 101 s in H-mode), injected powers, and sustained performance will be reviewed. Progress has been made to sustain long-pulse operation in tokamaks and stellarators with superconducting coils, actively cooled components, and/or with metallic walls. The graph of the fusion triple products as a function of duration shows a dramatic reduction of, at least two orders of magnitude when increasing the plasma duration from less than 1 s to 100 s. Indeed, long-pulse operation is usually reached in dominant electron-heating modes at reduced density (current drive optimization) but with low ion temperatures ranging from 1 to 3 keV for discharges above 100 s. Difficulties in extending the duration may arise from coupling high heating powers over long durations and the evolving plasma-wall interaction towards an unstable operational domain. Possible causes limiting the duration and critical issues to be addressed prior to ITER operation and DEMO design are reported and analyzed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗