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NASA NTRS2014

Evaluation of Mixed-Phase Microphysics Within Winter Storms Using Field Data and In Situ Observations

Snow prediction within models is sensitive to the snow densities, habits, and degree of riming within the BMPs. Improving these BMPs is a crucial step toward improving both weather forecasting and climate predictions. Several microphysical schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model down to 1.33-km grid spacing are evaluated using aircraft, radar, and ground in situ data from the Global Precipitation Mission Cold-season Precipitation Experiment (GCPEx) experiment over southern Ontario, as well as a few years (12 winter storms) of surface measurements of riming, crystal habit, snow density, and radar measurements at Stony Brook, NY (SBNY on north shore of Long Island) during the 2009-2012 winter seasons. Surface microphysical measurements at SBNY were taken every 15 to 30 minutes using a stereo microscope and camera, and snow depth and snow density were also recorded. During these storms, a vertically-pointing Ku band radar was used to observe the vertical evolution of reflectivity and Doppler vertical velocities. The GCPex presentation will focus on verification using aircraft spirals through warm frontal snow band event on 18 February 2012. All the BMPs realistically simulated the structure of the band and the vertical distribution of snow/ice aloft, except the SBU-YLIN overpredicted slightly and Thompson (THOM) underpredicted somewhat. The Morrison (MORR) scheme produced the best slope size distribution for snow, while the Stony Brook (SBU) underpredicted and the THOM slightly overpredicted. Those schemes that have the slope intercept a function of temperature (SBU and WSM6) tended to perform better for that parameter than others, especially the fixed intercept in Goddard. Overall, the spread among BMPs was smaller than in other studies, likely because there was limited riming with the band. For the 15 cases at SBNY, which include moderate and heavy riming events, the non-spherical snow assumption (THOM and SBU-YLIN) simulated a more realistic distribution of reflectivity than spherical snow assumptions in the WSM6 and MORR schemes. The MORR, WSM6, and SBU schemes are comparable to the observed velocity distribution in light and moderate riming periods. The THOM is approx. 0.25 m/s too slow with its velocity distribution in these periods. In heavier riming, the vertical Doppler velocities in the WSM6, THOM, and MORR schemes were approx. 0.25 m/s too slow, while the SBU was 0.25 to 0.5 m/s too fast because of some excessive cloud water issues.

Colle, Brian A.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Evaluation of Brightness Temperature Sensitivity to Snowpack Physical Properties Using Coupled Snow Physics and Microwave Radiative Transfer Models

There are multiple existing microwave radiative transfer models (RTMs) to simulate the brightness temperature (Tb) of snowpacks. It is still challenging to have consistent Tb responses from RTMs due to individual physical formulations of the snowpack scattering process. This article examines three of the widely-used multi-layer RTMs: 1) the microwave emission model of layered snowpacks (MEMLS); 2) the dense media radiative transfer based on the quasi-crystalline approximation (QCA) of Mie scattering of densely packed sticky spheres (DMRTQMS); and 3) the Helsinki University of Technology (HUT) model. Interestingly, these models yield slightly different Tb responses when driven by the same physical snowpack properties. Tb variations, dependent on the choice of RTMs, are then evaluated to improve the understanding of model differences in microwave emission from a snowpack. We first perform a sensitivity study of the Tb predictions from the three RTMs as a function of snow grain sizes, densities, and depths. While Tb from all three RTMs decreases with increasing snow grain sizes, it is found that a scaling factor is required to have the same amount of Tb attenuation for small grain sizes within the Rayleigh scattering regime. For larger grain sizes, however, a scaling coefficient is not enough to match the model outputs due to the different scattering assumptions of the RTMs. For a single snow layer with increasing snow depths and densities, all three RTMs exhibit Tb attenuations arising from the increase in path lengths and optical depths. Further evaluations are conducted by feeding the three RTMs with the output of a snow physics model driven by in situ weather forcing in a coupled simulation. Outputs of this coupled model include snowpack physical properties and Tbs. By using snow stratigraphy observations, another set of Tb simulation is also conducted with RTMs driven by in situ snowpit observations. The snow physics outputs from the coupled case are compared against in situ snow stratigraphy observations.

Do Hyuk Kang↗
NASA NTRS2024

A Survey of Modeling Activities by NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office

NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) develops and maintains a number of modeling tools to analyze and simulate the orbital debris environment. One of the most important products produced by the NASA ODPO is the Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM). This model can be used by satellite designers and operators to design missions for better protection against the debris environment. The ODPO is currently working on the next generation, designated ORDEM 4.0. ORDEM 4.0 will include many known features from previous models, such as the ability to input a spacecraft orbit and time and the ability to compute the flux as a function of debris size, impact speed, impact direction, and debris material densities, as well as uncertainty information on the flux. A new addition will be a parameterized debris shape model based on laboratory hypervelocity impact tests, including DebriSat. ORDEM is primarily based on dedicated debris measurements, such as by the Haystack Ultrawideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR), NASA’s Goldstone radar, and observations of geosynchronous orbits (GEO) using the Eugene Stansbery-Meter Class Autonomous Telescope (ES-MCAT). In addition to ORDEM, the ODPO also maintains other models, such as the LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris (LEGEND) model for studies of long-term evolution of Earth’s debris environment, with the ability to study various mitigation and remediation strategies. Another model, the Satellite Breakup Risk Assessment Model (SBRAM), is used to analyze how satellite breakups may affect critical space missions (such as the ISS) on short notice. In addition to these models, the ODPO maintains other secondary models used to model satellite explosions and collisions, analyze radar, optical, and in situ data, and to model such things as solar activity and orbit evolution. In this presentation, a survey of these models will be presented, showing how the different models are used together to create a comprehensive picture of Earth’s debris environment.

Mark Matney↗
NASA NTRS1991

Low-frequency variability of sea level as related to the heat balance of global oceans

The TOPEX/POSEIDON mission will determine global changes of sea level with unprecedented accuracy. Our main objective is the use TOPEX/POSEIDON data, concurrent in situ ocean measurements, and other satellite observations to document and diagnose physical processes by which heat is exchanged with the atmosphere, stored in the ocean, or transported by ocean circulation. During the prelaunch period, our objectives are to advise the project on an improved method of retrieving sea level data and prepare for the application of TOPEX/POSEIDON data by developing a diagnostic model using in situ measurements and altimeter observations from Geosat and the European Remote Sensing satellite.

Liu, W. Timothy↗
NASA NTRS2018

Evaluation of a High-Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction Model’s Simulated Clouds Using Observations from CloudSat, GOES-13 and in Situ Aircraft

This study aimed to assess tropical cloud properties predicted by Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM)modelwhen run with the Milbrandt–Yau double-moment cloud microphysical scheme and one-way nesting that culminated at a (∼300 km)2 inner domain with 0.25 km horizontal grid spacing. The assessment utilized satellite and in situ data collected during the High Ice Water Content (HIWC) and High Altitude Ice Crystals (HAIC) projects for a mesoscale convective system on 16May 2015 over French Guiana.Data fromCloud- Sat’s cloud-profiling radar and GOES-13’s imager were compared to data either simulated directly by GEM or produced by operating on GEM’s cloud data with both the CFMIP (Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project) Observation Simulator Package (COSP) instrument simulator and a three-dimensional Monte Carlo solar radiative transfer model. In situ observations were made from research aircraft – Canada’s National Research Council Convair-580 and the French SAFIRE Falcon-20 – whose flight paths were aligned with CloudSat’s ground-track. Spatial and temporal shifts of clouds simulated by GEM compared well to GOES-13 imagery. There are, however, differences between simulated and observed amounts of high and low cloud. While GEM did well at predicting ranges of ice-water content (IWC) near 11 km altitude (Falcon-20), it produces too much graupel and snow near 7 km (Convair-580). This produced large differences between CloudSat’s and COSP-generated radar reflectivities and two-way attenuations. On the other hand, CloudSat’s inferred values of IWC agree well with in situ samples at both altitudes. Generally, GEM’s visible reflectances exceeded GOES-13’s on account of having produced too much low-level liquid cloud. It is expected that GEM’s disproportioning of cloud hydrometeors will improve once it includes a better representation of secondary ice production.

Qu, Zhipeng↗
NASA NTRS2008

Tolerance and UQ4SIM: Nimble Uncertainty Documentation and Analysis Software

Ultimately, scientific numerical models need quantified output uncertainties so that modeling can evolve to better match reality. Documenting model input uncertainties and variabilities is a necessary first step toward that goal. Without known input parameter uncertainties, model sensitivities are all one can determine, and without code verification, output uncertainties are simply not reliable. The basic premise of uncertainty markup is to craft a tolerance and tagging mini-language that offers a natural, unobtrusive presentation and does not depend on parsing each type of input file format. Each file is marked up with tolerances and optionally, associated tags that serve to label the parameters and their uncertainties. The evolution of such a language, often called a Domain Specific Language or DSL, is given in [1], but in final form it parallels tolerances specified on an engineering drawing, e.g., 1 +/- 0.5, 5 +/- 10%, 2 +/- 10 where % signifies percent and o signifies order of magnitude. Tags, necessary for error propagation, can be added by placing a quotation-mark-delimited tag after the tolerance, e.g., 0.7 +/- 20% 'T_effective'. In addition, tolerances might have different underlying distributions, e.g., Uniform, Normal, or Triangular, or the tolerances may merely be intervals due to lack of knowledge (uncertainty). Finally, to address pragmatic considerations such as older models that require specific number-field formats, C-style format specifiers can be appended to the tolerance like so, 1.35 +/- 10U_3.2f. As an example of use, consider figure 1, where a chemical reaction input file is has been marked up to include tolerances and tags per table 1. Not only does the technique provide a natural method of specifying tolerances, but it also servers as in situ documentation of model uncertainties. This tolerance language comes with a utility to strip the tolerances (and tags), to provide a path to the nominal model parameter file. And, as shown in [1], having the ability to quickly mark and identify model parameter uncertainties facilitates error propagation, which in turn yield output uncertainties.

Kleb, Bil↗
NASA NTRS2001

Ice Nucleation in Deep Convection

The processes controlling production of ice crystals in deep, rapidly ascending convective columns are poorly understood due to the difficulties involved with either modeling or in situ sampling of these violent clouds. A large number of ice crystals are no doubt generated when droplets freeze at about -40 C. However, at higher levels, these crystals are likely depleted due to precipitation and detrainment. As the ice surface area decreases, the relative humidity can increase well above ice saturation, resulting in bursts of ice nucleation. We will present simulations of these processes using a large-eddy simulation model with detailed microphysics. Size bins are included for aerosols, liquid droplets, ice crystals, and mixed-phase (ice/liquid) hydrometers. Microphysical processes simulated include droplet activation, freezing, melting, homogeneous freezing of sulfate aerosols, and heterogeneous ice nucleation. We are focusing on the importance of ice nucleation events in the upper part of the cloud at temperatures below -40 C. We will show that the ultimate evolution of the cloud in this region (and the anvil produced by the convection) is sensitive to these ice nucleation events, and hence to the composition of upper tropospheric aerosols that get entrained into the convective column.

Jensen, Eric↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Darkening of the Greenland Ice Sheet: Trends, Drivers and Projections (1981-2100)

The surface energy balance and meltwater production of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) are modulated by snow and ice albedo through the amount of absorbed solar radiation. Here we show, using space-borne multispectral data collected during the 3 decades from 1981 to 2012, that summertime surface albedo over the GrIS decreased at a statistically significant (99 %) rate of 0.02 decade(sup -1) between 1996 and 2012. Over the same period, albedo modelled by the Modele Atmospherique Regionale (MAR) also shows a decrease, though at a lower rate (approximately -0.01 decade(sup -1)) than that obtained from space-borne data. We suggest that the discrepancy between modelled and measured albedo trends can be explained by the absence in the model of processes associated with the presence of light-absorbing impurities. The negative trend in observed albedo is confined to the regions of the GrIS that undergo melting in summer, with the dry snow zone showing no trend. The period 1981-1996 also showed no statistically significant trend over the whole GrIS. Analysis of MAR outputs indicates that the observed albedo decrease is attributable to the combined effects of increased near-surface air temperatures, which enhanced melt and promoted growth in snow grain size and the expansion of bare ice areas, and to trends in light-absorbing impurities (LAI) on the snow and ice surfaces. Neither aerosol models nor in situ and remote sensing observations indicate increasing trends in LAI in the atmosphere over Greenland. Similarly, an analysis of the number of fires and BC emissions from fires points to the absence of trends for such quantities. This suggests that the apparent increase of LAI in snow and ice might be related to the exposure of a "dark band" of dirty ice and to increased consolidation of LAI at the surface with melt, not to increased aerosol deposition. Albedo projections through to the end of the century under different warming scenarios consistently point to continued darkening, with albedo anomalies averaged over the whole ice sheet lower by 0.08 in 2100 than in 2000, driven solely by a warming climate. Future darkening is likely underestimated because of known underestimates in modelled melting (as seen in hindcasts) and because the model albedo scheme does not currently include the effects of LAI, which have a positive feedback on albedo decline through increased melting, grain growth, and darkening.

surface energy↗
NASA NTRS2008

U.S. Eastern Continental Shelf Carbon Cycling (USECoS): Modeling, Data Assimilation, and Analysis

Although the oceans play a major role in the uptake of fossil fuel CO2 from the atmosphere, there is much debate about the contribution from continental shelves, since many key shelf fluxes are not yet well quantified: the exchange of carbon across the land-ocean and shelf-slope interfaces, air-sea exchange of CO2, burial, and biological processes including productivity. Our goal is to quantify these carbon fluxes along the eastern U.S. coast using models quantitatively verified by comparison to observations, and to establish a framework for predicting how these fluxes may be modified as a result of climate and land use change. Our research questions build on those addressed with previous NASA funding for the USECoS (U.S. Eastern Continental Shelf Carbon Cycling) project. We have developed a coupled biogeochemical ocean circulation model configured for this study region and have extensively evaluated this model with both in situ and remotely-sensed data. Results indicate that to further reduce uncertainties in the shelf component of the global carbon cycle, future efforts must be directed towards 1) increasing the resolution of the physical model via nesting and 2) making refinements to the biogeochemical model and quantitatively evaluating these via the assimilation of biogeochemical data (in situ and remotely-sensed). These model improvements are essential for better understanding and reducing estimates of uncertainties in current and future carbon transformations and cycling in continental shelf systems. Our approach and science questions are particularly germane to the carbon cycle science goals of the NASA Earth Science Research Program as well as the U.S. Climate Change Research Program and the North American Carbon Program. Our interdisciplinary research team consists of scientists who have expertise in the physics and biogeochemistry of the U.S. eastern continental shelf, remote-sensing data analysis and data assimilative numerical models.

Mannino, Antonio↗
NASA NTRS2017

Predicting the Magnetic Field of Earth-Impacting CMEs

Predicting the impact of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and the southward component of their magnetic field is one of the key goals of space weather forecasting. We present a new model, the ForeCAT In situ Data Observer (FIDO), for predicting the in situ magnetic field of CMEs. We first simulate a CME using ForeCAT, a model for CME deflection and rotation resulting from the background solar magnetic forces. Using the CME position and orientation from ForeCAT, we then determine the passage of the CME over a simulated spacecraft. We model the CME's magnetic field using a force-free flux rope and we determine the in situ magnetic profile at the synthetic spacecraft. We show that FIDO can reproduce the general behavior of four observed CMEs. FIDO results are very sensitive to the CME's position and orientation, and we show that the uncertainty in a CME's position and orientation from coronagraph images corresponds to a wide range of in situ magnitudes and even polarities. This small range of positions and orientations also includes CMEs that entirely miss the satellite. We show that two derived parameters (the normalized angular distance between the CME nose and satellite position and the angular difference between the CME tilt and the position angle of the satellite with respect to the CME nose) can be used to reliably determine whether an impact or miss occurs. We find that the same criteria separate the impacts and misses for cases representing all four observed CMEs.

Kay, C.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Constraining Oceanic Sources and Sinks of CO2 by Inverse Modeling: A First Step Toward Assimilation of In Situ and Remote Data

The primary goal of this collaborative project, lead by Nicholas Gruber at UCLA, is to better quantify the air-sea fluxes of pre-industrial and anthropogenic carbon dioxide CO2 for the global ocean with a newly developed inverse method. The method involves using ocean general circulation models (OGCMs) to characterize the subsurface distribution of tracers injected for different regions of the ocean surface. By linearly combining a series of these basis (or Greens) functions, one should be able to recreate any arbitrary ocean tracer field. In our case, we are using the global database of ocean dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from the WOCE/JGOFS global CO2 survey from the 1990s. The observed DIC field has been partitioned into pre-industrial and anthropogenic components using the empirical C* technique. We then solve for an optimal combination of the regional basis functions that best match the two sets observations in a least-squares sense with singular value decomposition. This in turn provides solutions for the regional air-sea CO2 fluxes (pre-industrial and anthropogenic) that are independent of more traditional estimates derived from surface water disequilibria in the partial pressure of CO2 and wind speed gas exchange parameterizations. We are apply the method to a suite of nine different OGCMs to test the robustness of the derived surface fluxes fields to differences in ocean circulation. Together with a collegue Keith Lindsay at NCAR, S. Doney's role in this project was to create the appropriate steady-state and temporally evolving basis functions from the NCAR CSM-1 ocean circulation model. Because of a slow start across the project in defining a common set of experimental protocols, we requested and were given a one year, no cost extension. Both the steady-state and temporally evolving basis functions were delivered to the UCLA group for further analysis. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Doney, Scott↗
NASA NTRS1977

Aluminum-26 in the early solar system - Fossil or fuel

The isotopic composition of Mg was measured in different phases of a Ca-Al-rich inclusion in the Allende meteorite. Large excesses of Mg-26 of up to 10% were found. These excesses correlate strictly with the Al-27/Mg-24 ratio for four coexisting phases with distinctive chemical compositions. Models of in situ decay of Al-26 within the solar system and of mixing of interstellar dust grains containing fossil Al-26 with normal solar system material are presented. The observed correlation provides definitive evidence for the presence of Al-26 in the early solar system. This requires either injection of freshly synthesized nucleosynthetic material into the solar system immediately before condensation and planet formation, or local production within the solar system by intense activity of the early sun. Planets promptly produced from material with the inferred Al-26/Al-27 would melt within about 300,000 years.

Lee, T.↗
NASA NTRS1980

A post-Viking view of Martian geologic evolution

The geologic evolution of Mars is reviewed on the basis of data obtained by the Viking and previous missions. Current knowledge of the mean density and moment of inertia factor of Mars are surveyed and the constraints these data place on the structure and composition of the interior are discussed. Inferences drawn about Martian surface composition and mineralogy from lava modeling studies, in situ analyses, remote sensing observations, flow morphometry and investigations of weathering under Martian conditions are presented, and data on the topography, gravity field and structural features are considered in relation to the structure and deformational history of the crust. The temporal and spatial distribution of volcanic units are considered as a constraint on the thermal evolution of the planet, and other constraints on Martian thermal history, such as magnetic field data, are reviewed. Finally, the volatile inventory of Mars is discussed based on elemental and isotopic atmospheric abundance data and geological constraints on H2O and CO2 abundances.

Arvidson, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS1984

The effects of the variations in sea surface temperature and atmospheric stability in the estimation of average wind speed by SEASAT-SASS

The average wind speeds from the scatterometer (SASS) on the ocean observing satellite SEASAT are found to be generally higher than the average wind speeds from ship reports. In this study, two factors, sea surface temperature and atmospheric stability, are identified which affect microwave scatter and, therefore, wave development. The problem of relating satellite observations to a fictitious quantity, such as the neutral wind, that has to be derived from in situ observations with models is examined. The study also demonstrates the dependence of SASS winds on sea surface temperature at low wind speeds, possibly due to temperature-dependent factors, such as water viscosity, which affect wave development.

Liu, W. T.↗
NASA NTRS2000

BOREAS HYD-2 Estimated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) from Microwave Measurements

The surface meteorological data collected at the Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) tower and ancillary sites are being used as inputs to an energy balance model to monitor the amount of snow storage in the boreal forest region. The BOREAS Hydrology (HYD)-2 team used Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) derived from an energy balance model and in situ observed SWE to compare the SWE inferred from airborne and spaceborne microwave data, and to assess the accuracy of microwave retrieval algorithms. The major external measurements that are needed are snowpack temperature profiles, in situ snow areal extent, and SWE data. The data in this data set were collected during February 1994 and cover portions of the Southern Study Area (SSA), Northern Study Area (NSA), and the transect areas. The data are available from BORIS as comma-delimited tabular ASCII files. The SWE data are available from the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC). The data files are available on a CD-ROM (see document number 20010000884).

Powell, Hugh↗
NASA NTRS2002

Global Plasmaspheric Imaging: A New "Light" Focusing on Familiar Questions

Until recently plasmaspheric physics, for that matter, magnetospheric physics as a whole, has relied primarily on single point in-situ measurement, theory, modeling, and a considerable amount of extrapolation in order to envision the global structure of the plasmasphere. This condition changed with the launch of the IMAGE satellite in March 2000. Using the Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) imager on WAGE, we can now view the global structure of the plasmasphere bathed in the glow of resonantly scattered 30.4 nm radiation allowing the space physics community to view the dynamics of this global structure as never before. This talk will: (1) define the plasmasphere from the perspective of plasmaspheric physics prior to March 2000; (2) present a review of EUV imaging optics and the IMAGE mission; and focus on efforts to understand an old and familiar feature of plasmaspheric physics, embedded plasmaspheric density troughs, in this new global light with the assistance of forward modeling.

Adrian, M. L.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Theories of Giant Planet Formation

An overview of current theories of planetary formation, with emphasis on giant planets, is presented. The most detailed models are based upon observations of our own Solar System and of young stars and their environments. While these models predict that rocky planets should form around most single stars, the frequency of formation of gas giant planets is more difficult to predict theoretically. Terrestrial planets are believed to grow via pairwise accretion until the spacing of planetary orbits becomes large enough that the configuration is stable for the age of the system. Giant planets begin their growth as do terrestrial planets, but they become massive enough that they are able to accumulate substantial amounts of gas before the protoplanetary disk dissipates. Most models for extrasolar giant planets suggest that they formed as did Jupiter and Saturn (in nearly circular orbits, far enough from the star that ice could), and subsequently migrated to their current positions, although some models suggest in situ formation.

Lissauer, Jack J.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Penetration of UV Radiation in the Earth's Oceans

This project was a collaboration between SIO/UCSD and NASA/GSFC to develop a global estimation of the penetration of UV light into open ocean waters, and into coastal waters. We determined the ocean UV reflectance spectra seen by satellites above the atmosphere by combining existing sophisticated radiative transfer models with in situ UV Visible data sets to improve coupled radiance estimates both underwater and within the atmosphere. Results included improved estimates of surface spectral irradiance, 0.3-1.0 micron, and estimates of photosynthetic inhibition, DNA mutation, and CO production. Data sets developed under this proposal have been made publicly available via submission to the SeaWiFS Bio-Optical Archive and Storage System. Numerous peer-reviewed publications and conference proceedings and abstracts resulted from the work supported by this research award.

Mitchell, B. Greg↗