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At least 163 records · Page 9

Robust Consumption-Investment Problem on Infinite Horizon

In our paper we consider an infinite horizon consumption-investment problem under a model misspecification in a general stochastic factor model. We formulate the problem as a stochastic game and finally characterize the saddle point and the value function of that game using an ODE of semilinear type, for which we provide a proof of an existence and uniqueness theorem for its solution. Such equation is interested on its own right, since it generalizes many other equations arising in various infinite horizon optimization problems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

CoCrFeNi Multi-principal Element Alloy Prepared Via Self-propagating High-Temperature Synthesis Plus Investment Casting Method

A CoCrFeNi multi-principal element alloy was successfully prepared via the combination of self-propagating high-temperature synthesis and investment casting. The phase identification, the as-cast microstructure, and the solidification phenomena were investigated. Unlike the dendrite morphology obtained by arc melting, cellular growth in the as-cast alloy was observed as a consequence of the rapid solidification. The solidification process is discussed with regard to the rate of advance of the liquid–solid interface, the equilibrium melting range, and the interface temperature gradient.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Sustainability as the key to prioritize investments in public infrastructures

Infrastructure construction, one of the biggest driving forces of the economy nowadays, requires a huge analysis and clear transparency to decide what projects have to be executed with the few resources available. With the aim to provide the public administrations a tool with which they can make their decisions easier, the Sustainability Index of Infrastructure Projects (SIIP) has been defined, with a multi-criteria decision system called MIVES, in order to classify non-uniform investments. This index evaluates, in two inseparable stages, the contribution to the sustainable development of each infrastructure project, analyzing its social, environmental and economic impact. The result of the SIIP allows to decide the order with which projects will be prioritized. The case of study developed proves the adaptability and utility of this tool for the ordinary budget management.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

New bounding and decomposition approaches for MILP investment problems: Multi-area transmission and generation planning under policy constraints

A novel two-phase bounding and decomposition approach to compute optimal and near-optimal solutions to large-scale mixed-integer investment planning problems is proposed and it considers a large number of operating subproblems, each of which is a convex optimization. Our motivating application is the planning of power transmission and generation in which policy constraints are designed to incentivize high amounts of intermittent generation in electric power systems. The bounding phase exploits Jensen’s inequality to define a lower bound, which we extend to stochastic programs that use expected-value constraints to enforce policy objectives. The decomposition phase, in which the bounds are tightened, improves upon the standard Benders’ algorithm by accelerating the convergence of the bounds. The lower bound is tightened by using a Jensen’s inequality-based approach to introduce an auxiliary lower bound into the Benders master problem. Upper bounds for both phases are computed using a sub-sampling approach executed on a parallel computer system. Numerical results show that only the bounding phase is necessary if loose optimality gaps are acceptable. But, the decomposition phase is required to attain optimality gaps. Moreover, use of both phases performs better, in terms of convergence speed, than attempting to solve the problem using just the bounding phase or regular Benders decomposition separately.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Energy Return on Energy Invested (ERoEI) for photovoltaic solar systems in regions of moderate insolation: A comprehensive response

A recent paper by Ferroni and Hopkirk (2016) asserts that the ERoEI (also referred to as EROI) of photovoltaic (PV) systems is so low that they actually act as net energy sinks, rather than delivering energy to society. Such claim, if accurate, would call into question many energy investment decisions. In the same paper, a comparison is also drawn between PV and nuclear electricity. We have carefully analysed this paper, and found methodological inconsistencies and calculation errors that, in combination, render its conclusions not scientifically sound. Ferroni and Hopkirk adopt 'extended' boundaries for their analysis of PV without acknowledging that such choice of boundaries makes their results incompatible with those for all other technologies that have been analysed using more conventional boundaries, including nuclear energy with which the authors engage in multiple inconsistent comparisons. In addition, they use out-dated information, make invalid assumptions on PV specifications and other key parameters, and conduct calculation errors, including double counting. Here in this paper, we provide revised EROI calculations for PV electricity in Switzerland, adopting both conventional and 'extended' system boundaries, to contrast with their results, which points to an order-of-magnitude underestimate of the EROI of PV in Switzerland by Ferroni and Hopkirk.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A two-phase investment model for optimal allocation of phasor measurement units considering transmission switching

Ensuring the reliability of an electrical power system requires a wide-area monitoring and full observability of the state variables. Phasor measurement units (PMUs) collect in real time synchronized phasors of voltages and currents which are used for the observability of the power grid. Due to the considerable cost of installing PMUs, it is not possible to equip all buses with PMUs. In this paper, we propose an integer linear programming model to determine the optimal PMU placement plan in two investment phases. In the first phase, PMUs are installed to achieve full observability of the power grid whereas additional PMUs are installed in the second phase to guarantee the N - 1 observability of the power grid. The proposed model also accounts for transmission switching and single contingencies such as failure of a PMU or a transmission line. Results are provided on several IEEE test systems which show that our proposed approach is a promising enhancement to the methods available for the optimal placement of PMUs.

Phasor measurement unit↗

The role of corporate investment in start-ups for climate-tech innovation

Enabling and accelerating the full potential of energy innovation is a critical component of the global policy response to climate change. Incentivizing start-ups advancing climate-tech (i.e., products and services related to clean energy and climate change), has become central to innovation policy because start-ups are nimble (compared to incumbents), can quickly focus on bringing new technologies to market, and simultaneously create new jobs and catalyze local industries. Public policies to support climate-tech start-ups and efforts such as Mission Innovation tend to focus on increasing government spending (e.g., grants for research and development) or on creating demand pull for new technologies (e.g., feed-in-tariffs). But to go from research and development to widespread adoption of new products and services, start-ups need to grow and scale, and this requires support from private investors. Yet, research on how different investors can shape the direction of climate innovation—and how public policy can incentivize private investment in climate-tech start-ups to support the public good—is surprisingly sparse.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Government sector activities to reduce thermal-spectrum molten salt breeder reactor investment risk

Thermal-Spectrum Molten Salt Breeder Reactors (TS-MSBRs) have long been recognized as having high potential for clean, safe, large-scale, cost-effective energy production for the foreseeable future. U.S. government support for TS-MSBR development was stopped half a century ago in the belief that they were too technically difficult. Technology progression over the past several decades as well as the pressing need for clean power on-demand provides incentives to reconsider the development program cancellation. Limited, early-stage, government sector activities have the potential to sufficiently reduce investor risk to trigger the private sector investment necessary to commercialize the reactor class. In conclusion, these activities are summarized in this article.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

The U.S. investment tax credit for solar energy: Alternatives to the anticipated 2017 step-down

Solar photovoltaic (PV) installations in the United States have been deployed at a rapid pace in recent years, a development that is attributed in significant part to the federal Investment Tax Credit (ITC). Yet, this credit is scheduled to step-down from 30% to 10% at the beginning of 2017 for corporate investors. For a sample of five U.S. states and different segments of the solar industry, we find that the anticipated ITC step-down in 2017 would increase the levelized cost of solar power by a significant margin, raising the specter of a ‘cliff’ for the solar industry. Here, our analysis identifies and evaluates an alternative phase-down scenario that would reduce the ITC gradually over time and eliminate it completely by 2024. For this alternative phase-down scenario, it is shown that solar PV would remain broadly competitive, provided the solar industry can maintain the pace of cost reductions demonstrated in past years.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Determination of Cell Doubling Times from the Return-on-Investment Time of Photosynthetic Vesicles Based on Atomic Detail Structural Models

Cell doubling times of the purple bacterium Rhodobacter sphaeroides during photosynthetic growth are determined experimentally and computationally as a function of illumination. For this purpose, energy conversion processes in an intracytoplasmic membrane vesicle, the chromatophore, are described based on an atomic detail structural model. The cell doubling time and its illumination dependence are computed in terms of the return-on-investment (ROI) time of the chromatophore, determined computationally from the ATP production rate, and the mass ratio of chromatophores in the cell, determined experimentally from whole cell absorbance spectra. The ROI time is defined as the time it takes to produce enough ATP to pay for the construction of another chromatophore. The ROI time of the low light-growth chromatophore is 4.5–2.6 h for a typical illumination range of 10–100 μmol photons m –2 s –1 , respectively, with corresponding cell doubling times of 8.2–3.9 h. Finally, when energy expenditure is considered as a currency, the benefit-to-cost ratio computed for the chromatophore as an energy harvesting device is 2–8 times greater than for photovoltaic and fossil fuel-based energy solutions and the corresponding ROI times are approximately 3–4 orders of magnitude shorter for the chromatophore than for synthetic systems.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Informed Investments in Clean Energy Technologies

Governments and companies face consequential decisions about allocating resources to the research, development, demonstration and deployment of energy technologies to meet environmental, economic and social goals. Here we discuss how research insights can inform and potentially improve these decisions to make effective use of limited resources and time in shaping the next-generation energy infrastructure. We outline three key research steps: forecasting technological change, relating investments to economic, social and environmental outcomes and informing decision-making processes. We recommend advances to address uncertainty as well as to make methods and results more practicable, emphasizing the importance of model validation, streamlining and interactivity. Progress has been made, yet further work is needed-for example, in the development of reduced-order, testable models and more comprehensive data collection. Overall, this research is beginning to inform decisions but could be adopted more widely by governments and the private sector to help support technological progress for energy affordability, equitable climate change mitigation, health benefits and other objectives.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Capacity Investment under Bayesian Information Updates at Reporting Periods: Model and Application

We consider capacity addition decisions by a new product manufacturer faced with uncertain technology alternatives. The manufacturing capacity addition and technology development occurs in parallel, with preliminary results from a technology project's success providing valuable information to the manufacturer in adding capacity. We solve a stochastic dynamic program with Bayesian updates to obtain the manufacturer's expected profit‐maximizing capacity investment decision. Our model and applications are motivated by the Critical Materials Institute (CMI) (funded by the Department of Energy), which manages research projects focused on mitigating critical material constraints, vital to renewable energy technologies such as direct‐drive wind turbines, electric vehicles, and energy‐efficient lighting. We capture three unique aspects of the problem: first, the learning from project progress depends on task‐based stochastic outcomes and a project's percent‐done. Second, the underlying technology's profitability is based on a model of competition. Third, we evaluate the impact of progress across a portfolio of projects based on a manufacturer's capacity addition. We develop a heuristic that produces results that are close to optimal and can thus be used for large problem sizes. The managerial insights from an application of our model to CMI projects include: (i) technology projects that report the percent‐done of a project earlier increase expected manufacturer profit; (ii) careful choice of “safe bets,” that is, technologies with low profitability but a high probability of success, can increase expected manufacturer profit; (iii) a portfolio of projects can increase profits significantly over separate project evaluation; and (iv) dynamic management of project resources can increase overall profit.

Vedantam, Aditya↗

The dividends of investing in computational software design: A case study

A significant fraction of computational software for scientific research grows through accretion. In a common scenario, a small group develops a code for a specific purpose. Others find the software useful, so they add to it for their own use. The software grows to the point where its management becomes intractable and scientific results obtained from it become unreliable. This is in stark contrast with a small number of scientific codes that have undergone a design process, be it due to an upfront investment, or when haphazardly grown codes have reset and started again. At a minimum, these codes reduce the time to obtain research results for the communities they serve because individual researchers do not have to develop their own codes. They provide further benefits; the results they produce are more reproducible due to greater scrutiny, leading to better science. One of the more overlooked benefits, which is perhaps of greater significance, is that a well-designed code can expand to serve communities beyond the ones it was designed for. Thus, research communities with similar computational requirements can symbiotically improve computation-based research for each other. In this article, we present a case study of FLASH, a code that was designed and developed for simulating thermonuclear runaways such as novae and type Ia supernovae in astrophysics. Designed to be modular and extensible, users from several diverse research areas have added capabilities to it and adapted it for their own communities. Examples include cosmology, high-energy density physics, core-collapse supernovae, star formation, fluid–structure interactions, and chemical combustion. We give a summary of design features that facilitated the expansion and quantify the effort needed to expand into some of the above-mentioned fields. We also quantify the impact on different communities by mining the database of publications using FLASH, collected by its developers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Reducing Transaction Costs for Energy Efficiency Investments and Analysis of Economic Risk Associated With Building Performance Uncertainties: Small Buildings and Small Portfolios Program

The small buildings and small portfolios (SBSP) sector face a number of barriers that inhibit SBSP owners from adopting energy efficiency solutions. This pilot project focused on overcoming two of the largest barriers to financing energy efficiency in small buildings: disproportionately high transaction costs and unknown or unacceptable risk. Solutions to these barriers can often be at odds, because inexpensive turnkey solutions are often not sufficiently tailored to the unique circumstances of each building, reducing confidence that the expected energy savings will be achieved. To address these barriers, NREL worked with two innovative, forward-thinking lead partners, Michigan Saves and Energi, to develop technical solutions that provide a quick and easy process to encourage energy efficiency investments while managing risk. The pilot project was broken into two stages: the first stage focused on reducing transaction costs, and the second stage focused on reducing performance risk. In the first stage, NREL worked with the non-profit organization, Michigan Saves, to analyze the effects of 8 energy efficiency measures (EEMs) on 81 different baseline small office building models in Holland, Michigan (climate zone 5A). The results of this analysis (totaling over 30,000 cases) are summarized in a simple spreadsheet tool that enables users to easily sort through the results and find appropriate small office EEM packages that meet a particular energy savings threshold and are likely to be cost-effective.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Los Alamos National Security, LLC Request for Interest (RFI) for Investment Mentors to participate in the Laboratory’s Entrepreneurial Postdoctoral Pilot.

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is committed to understanding how the role of venture funding, new investment mechanisms, and fostering the development of a culture of entrepreneurship may enhance the Laboratory and bring strength and creativity to its people. LANL, in partnership with the University of California (UC), has created the Entrepreneurial Postdoctoral Fellowship Pilot (Pilot) to provide an immersion-based learning opportunity to post-doctoral researchers to develop and practice skills in entrepreneurship and comercialization.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Assessing the Costs and Benefits of Resilience Investments: Tennessee Valley Authority Case Study

This report describes a general approach for assessing climate change vulnerabilities of an electricity system and evaluating the costs and benefits of certain investments that would increase system resilience. It uses Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) as a case study, concentrating on the Cumberland River basin area on the northern side of the TVA region. The study focuses in particular on evaluating risks associated with extreme heat wave and drought conditions that could be expected to affect the region by mid-century. Extreme climate event scenarios were developed using a combination of dynamically downscaled output from the Community Earth System Model and historical heat wave and drought conditions in 1993 and 2007, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗