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At least 163 records · Page 9

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NASA NTRS2002

Rationalizing Burned Carbon with Carbon Monoxide Exported from South America

We present several estimates cross-checking the fluxes of carbon to the atmosphere from burning, comparing models that are based on simple land-surface parameterizations and atmospheric transport dynamics. Both estimates made by NASA Ames and USP modeling techniques are quite high compared to some detailed satellite/land-use studies of emissions. The flux of carbon liberated to the atmosphere via biomass burning is important for several reasons. This flux is a fundamental statistic for the parameterization of the large-scale flux of gases controlling the reactive greenhouse gases methane and ozone. Similarly, it is central to the estimation of the translocation of nitrogen and pyrodenitrification in the tropics. Thirdly, CO2 emitted from rainforest clearing contributes directly to carbon lost from the rainforest system as it contributes to greenhouse gas forcing. While CO2 from pasturage, agriculture, etc, is considered to be reabsorbed seasonally, and so "off budget" for the carbon cycle, it must also be accounted. CO2 anomalies related to daily weather and interannual climatic variation are strong enough to perturb our scientific perception of long-term carbon storage trends. We compare fluxes deduced from land-use statistics (originally, W.M. Hao) and from satellite hot pixels (A. Setzer) with atmospheric fluxes determined by the mesoscale/continental scale models RAMS and MM5, and point to some new work with highly resolved global models (the NASA Data Assimilation Office's GEOS4). Our simulations are tied to events, so that measured tracers like CO tie the models directly to the burning and meteorology of a specific period. We point out a particular sensitivity in estimates based on CO, and indicate how analysis of CO2 along with other biomass-burning tracers may lead to an improved multi-species estimator of carbon burned.

Chatfield, R.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Measuring Global Water Security Towards Sustainable Development Goals

Water plays an important role in underpinning equitable, stable and productive societies and ecosystems. Hence, United Nations recognized ensuring water security as one (Goal 6) of the seventeen sustainable development goals (SDGs). Many international river basins are likely to experience 'low water security' over the coming decades. Water security is rooted not only in the physical availability of freshwater resources relative to water demand, but also on social and economic factors (e.g. sound water planning and management approaches, institutional capacity to provide water services, sustainable economic policies). Until recently, advanced tools and methods are available for the assessment of water scarcity. However, quantitative and integrated-physical and socio-economic-approaches for spatial analysis of water security at global level are not available yet. In this study, we present a spatial multi-criteria analysis framework to provide a global assessment of water security. The selected indicators are based on Goal 6 of SDGs. The term 'security' is conceptualized as a function of 'availability', 'accessibility to services', 'safety and quality', and 'management'. The proposed global water security index (GWSI) is calculated by aggregating indicator values on a pixel-by-pixel basis, using the ordered weighted average method, which allows for the exploration of the sensitivity of final maps to different attitudes of hypothetical policy makers. Our assessment suggests that countries of Africa, South Asia and Middle East experience very low water security. Other areas of high water scarcity, such as some parts of United States, Australia and Southern Europe, show better GWSI values, due to good performance of management, safety and quality, and accessibility. The GWSI maps show the areas of the world in which integrated strategies are needed to achieve water related targets of the SDGs particularly in the African and Asian continents.

sustainable-development goals↗

NASA NTRS1983

Simulation and analysis of differential global positioning system for civil helicopter operations

A Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) computer simulation was developed, to provide a versatile tool for assessing DGPS referenced civil helicopter navigation. The civil helicopter community will probably be an early user of the GPS capability because of the unique mission requirements which include offshore exploration and low altitude transport into remote areas not currently served by ground based Navaids. The Monte Carlo simulation provided a sufficiently high fidelity dynamic motion and propagation environment to enable accurate comparisons of alternative differential GPS implementations and navigation filter tradeoffs. The analyst has provided the capability to adjust most aspects of the system, the helicopter flight profile, the receiver Kalman filter, and the signal propagation environment to assess differential GPS performance and parameter sensitivities. Preliminary analysis was conducted to evaluate alternative implementations of the differential navigation algorithm in both the position and measurement domain. Results are presented to show that significant performance gains are achieved when compared with conventional GPS but that differences due to DGPS implementation techniques were small. System performance was relatively insensitive to the update rates of the error correction information.

Denaro, R. P.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Global and Regional Temperature-change Potentials for Near-term Climate Forcers

We examine the climate effects of the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia) using results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model simulations. We address 3 aerosol species (sulphate, particulate organic matter and black carbon) and 4 ozone precursors (methane, reactive nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide). We calculate the global climate metrics: global warming potentials (GWPs) and global temperature change potentials (GTPs). For the aerosols these metrics are simply time-dependent scalings of the equilibrium radiative forcings. The GTPs decrease more rapidly with time than the GWPs. The aerosol forcings and hence climate metrics have only a modest dependence on emission region. The metrics for ozone precursors include the effects on the methane lifetime. The impacts via methane are particularly important for the 20 yr GTPs. Emissions of NOx and VOCs from South Asia have GWPs and GTPs of higher magnitude than from the other Northern Hemisphere regions. The analysis is further extended by examining the temperature-change impacts in 4 latitude bands, and calculating absolute regional temperature-change potentials (ARTPs). The latitudinal pattern of the temperature response does not directly follow the pattern of the diagnosed radiative forcing. We find that temperatures in the Arctic latitudes appear to be particularly sensitive to BC emissions from South Asia. The northern mid-latitude temperature response to northern mid-latitude emissions is approximately twice as large as the global average response for aerosol emission, and about 20-30% larger than the global average for methane, VOC and CO emissions.

North America↗

NASA NTRS2000

TRMM/LIS Lightning: Going Beyond Climatological Composites

The high sensitivity, accuracy and pointing stability of the TRMM/LIS allows analysis of not only tropical bulk lightning production, but of storm cell-based statistics. Issues associated with per-storm flash rate identification are presented, including minimum detectable flash rate, 'unbiasing' the low end of observed storm flash rate spectra, and cell identification. Global lightning bulk composites are disaggregated into contributions from storm frequency of occurrence and per-storm flash rate, with the former dominating the global spatial distribution. Local examination of these fields reveals offsets between peaks in flashing storm occurrence and peaks in storm flash rate, often related to geographic effects and diurnal storm evolution. The correlation of storm-level statistics with theoretical measures of meso/large scale coupling (e.g., the gross moist stability of the tropical atmosphere as calculated by Neelin et al) is shown.

Boccippio, Dennis J.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Implications of CO Bias for Ozone and Methane Lifetime in a CCM

A low bias in carbon monoxide compared to observations at high latitudes is a common feature of chemistry climate models. CO bias can both indicate and contribute to a bias in modeled OH and methane lifetime. This study examines possible causes of CO bias in the ACCMIP simulation of the GEOSCCM, and considers how attributing the CO bias to uncertainty in CO emissions versus biases in other constituents impacts the relationship between CO bias and methane lifetime. We use a simplified model of CO tagged by source with specified OH to quantify the sensitivity of the CO bias to changes in CO emissions or OH concentration, comparing the modeled CO to surface and MOPITT observations. The simplified model shows that decreasing OH in the northern hemisphere removes most of the global mean and inter-hemispheric bias in surface CO. We then use results from this analysis to explore how adjusting CO sources in the CCM impacts the concentrations of ozone, OH and methane. The CCM simulation also exhibits biases in ozone and water vapor compared to observations. We use a parameterized CO-OH-CH4 model that takes ozone and water vapor as inputs to the parameterization to examine whether correcting water and ozone biases can alter OH enough to remove the CO bias. Through this analysis, we aim to better quantify the relationship between CO bias and model biases in ozone concentrations and methane lifetime.

carbon monoxide↗

NASA NTRS2004

NASA GEOS-3/TRMM Re-analysis: Capturing Observed Tropical Rainfall Variability in Global Analysis for Climate Research

Understanding climate variability over a wide range of space-time scales requires a comprehensive description of the earth system. Global analyses produced by a fixed assimilation system (i.e., re-analyses) - as their quality continues to improve - have the potential of providing a vital tool for meeting this challenge. But at the present time, the usefulness of re-analyses is limited by uncertainties in such basic fields as clouds, precipitation, and evaporation - especially in the tropics, where observations are relatively sparse. Analyses of the tropics have long been shown to be sensitive to. the treatment of cloud precipitation processes, which remains a major source of uncertainty in current models. Yet, for many climate studies it is crucial that analyses can accurately reproduce the observed rainfall intensity and variability since a small error of 1 mm/d in surface rain translates into an error of approx. 30 W/sq m in energy (latent heat) flux. Currently, discrepancies between the observed and analyzed monthly-mean rain rates averaged to 100 km x 100 km resolution can exceed 4 mm/d (or 120 W/sq m ), compared to uncertainties in surface radiative fluxes of approx. 10-20 W/sq m . Improving precipitation in analyses would reduce a major source of uncertainty in the global energy budget. Uncertainties in tropical precipitation have also been a major impediment in understanding how the tropics interact with other regions, including the remote response to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability on interannual time scales, the influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and monsoons on intraseasonal time scales. A global analysis that can replicate the observed precipitation variability together with physically consistent estimates of other atmospheric variables provides the key to breaking this roadblock. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of satellite-based microwave rainfall measurements in improving global analyses and has recently produced a multi-year, 1 x 1 TRMM re-analysis , which assimilates 6-hourly TMI and SSM/I surface rain rates over tropical oceans using a ID variational continuous assimilation (VCA) procedure in the GEOS-3 global data assimilation system. The analysis period extends from 1 November 1997 through 3 1 December 2002. The goal is to produce a multi-year global analysis that is dynamically consistent with available tropical precipitation observations for the community to assess its utility in climate applications and identify areas for further improvements. A distinct feature of the GEOS-3RRMh4 re-analysis is that its precipitation analysis is not derived from a short-term forecast (as done in most operational systems) but is given by a time- continuous model integration constrained by precipitation observations within a 6-h analysis window, while the wind, temperature, and pressure fields are allowed to directly respond to the improved precipitation and associated latent heating structures within the same analysis window. In this talk, I will assess the impact VCA precipitation assimilation on analyses of climate signals ranging from a few weeks to interannual time scales and compare results against other operational and reanalysis products.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Performance optimization of an MHD generator with physical constraints

A technique has been described which optimizes the power out of a Faraday MHD generator operating under a prescribed set of electrical and magnetic constraints. The method does not rely on complicated numerical optimization techniques. Instead the magnetic field and the electrical loading are adjusted at each streamwise location such that the resultant generator design operates at the most limiting of the cited stress levels. The simplicity of the procedure makes it ideal for optimizing generator designs for system analysis studies of power plants. The resultant locally optimum channel designs are, however, not necessarily the global optimum designs. The results of generator performance calculations are presented for an approximately 2000 MWe size plant. The difference between the maximum power generator design and the optimal design which maximizes net MHD power are described. The sensitivity of the generator performance to the various operational parameters are also presented.

Pian, C. C. P.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Global Sensitivity Analyses for Test Planning with Black-Box Models for Mars Sample Return

This work describes sensitivity analyses performed on complex black-box models used to support experimental test planning under limited resources in the context of the Mars Sample Return program, which aims at bringing to Earth rock and atmospheric samples from Mars. We develop a systematic workflow that allows the analysts to simultaneously obtain quantitative insights on key drivers of uncertainty, on the direction of impact, and the presence of interactions. We apply novel optimal transport-based global sensitivity measures to tackle the multivariate nature of the output. On the modeling side, we apply multi-fidelity techniques that leverage low-fidelity models to speed up the calculations and make up for the limited amount of high-fidelity samples, while keeping these in the loop for accuracy guarantees. The sensitivity analysis reveals insights useful for the analysts to understand the model's behavior and identify the factors to focus on during testing in order to maximize the value of information extracted from them to ensure mission success when limited resources are available.

Giuseppe Cataldo↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-10726-DND

The principal component radiative transfer model PCRTM (Xu 2006) simulates spectral longwave radiance at a 0.5cm-1 resolution over the wavelengths (50-2760cm-1) using 280 principal components. The CERES product SSF containing CERES field-of-view (FOV) cloud properties based on MODIS pixel information are used as inputs. NASA GMAO(Global Modeling and Assimilation Office)Geos-4 temperature and humidity profiles, as well as SMOBA (Stratosphere Monitoring Ozone Blended Analysis) ozone profiles allow computations for five years (Jan 2001- Dec 2006) of FOV nadir spectral radiance. The approximately twice daily FOV PCRTM simulations along with CERES broadband measurements are time-space averaged to 10deg zonal monthly data. Analysis of monthly seasonal and deseasonalized interannual variability in terms of brightness temperature are presented. Comparison of interannual variability in the portions of the spectrum seen by the AIRS instrument are shown. Comparisons of spectral integrated PCRTM simulations to CERES broadband longwave radiance measurements are made. In order to study the sensitivity of the spatially and temporally averaged TOA spectrum to various atmospheric properties, we perturbed atmospheric and surface temperatures, humidity, cloud height, cloud fraction, and particle size. The sensitivity of the spectrum to these properties depends on region and seasons. Month to month variability of the longwave spectra to these perturbations is 10 to 20% of the global monthly mean perturbation response. In addition, it depends on time period and size of the area used for averaging spectra. In this poster, the magnitude of sensitivity variability and how the sensitivity changes depending on temporal and spatial scale of averaging will be discussed.

Fred G. Rose↗

NASA NTRS1986

Instrument characterization for the detection of long-term changes in stratospheric ozone - An analysis of the SBUV/2 radiometer

The scientific objective of unambiguously detecting subtle global trends in upper stratospheric ozone requires that one maintains a thorough understanding of the satellite-based remote sensors intended for this task. The instrument now in use for long term ozone monitoring is the SBUV/2 being flown on NOAA operational satellites. A critical activity in the data interpretation involves separating small changes in measurement sensitivity from true atmospheric variability. By defining the specific issues that must be addressed and presenting results derived early in the mission of the first SBUV/2 flight model, this work serves as a guide to the instrument investigations that are essential in the attempt to detect long-term changes in the ozone layer.

Frederick, J. E.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Marine Heatwaves Globally

The spatiotemporal evolution of marine heatwaves (MHWs) is explored using a tracking algorithm termed Ocetrac that provides objective characterization of MHW spatiotemporal evolution. Candidate MHW grid points are defined in detrended gridded sea temperature data using a seasonally varying temperature threshold. Identified MHW points are collected into spatially distinct objects using edge detection with weak sensitivity to edge detection and size threshold criteria. These MHW objects are followed in space and time while allowing objects to split and merge. Ocetrac is applied to monthly satellite sea surface temperature data from September 1981 through January 2021. The resulting MHWs are characterized by their intensity, duration, and total area covered. The global analysis shows that MHWs in the Gulf of Maine and Mediterranean Sea evolve within a relatively small region, while major MHWs in the Pacific and Indian Oceans are linked in space and time. The largest and most long lasting MHW using this method lasts for 60 months from November 2013 to October 2018, encompassing previously identified MHW events including those in the Northeast Pacific (2014-2015), the Tasman Sea (2015-2016, 2017-2018), and the Great Barrier Reef (2016).

spatiotemporal↗

NASA NTRS1988

Development of a satellite SAR image spectra and altimeter wave height data assimilation system for ERS-1

The applicability of ERS-1 wind and wave data for wave models was studied using the WAM third generation wave model and SEASAT altimeter, scatterometer and SAR data. A series of global wave hindcasts is made for the surface stress and surface wind fields by assimilation of scatterometer data for the full 96-day SEASAT and also for two wind field analyses for shorter periods by assimilation with the higher resolution ECMWF T63 model and by subjective analysis methods. It is found that wave models respond very sensitively to inconsistencies in wind field analyses and therefore provide a valuable data validation tool. Comparisons between SEASAT SAR image spectra and theoretical SAR spectra derived from the hindcast wave spectra by Monte Carlo simulations yield good overall agreement for 32 cases representing a wide variety of wave conditions. It is concluded that SAR wave imaging is sufficiently well understood to apply SAR image spectra with confidence for wave studies if supported by realistic wave models and theoretical computations of the strongly nonlinear mapping of the wave spectrum into the SAR image spectrum. A closed nonlinear integral expression for this spectral mapping relation is derived which avoids the inherent statistical errors of Monte Carlo computations and may prove to be more efficient numerically.

Hasselmann, Klaus↗

NASA NTRS2004

Analysis of 1970-1995 Trends in Tropospheric Ozone at Northern Hemisphere Midlatitudes with the GEOS-CHEM Model

I ] The causes of trends in tropospheric ozone at Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes from 1970 to 1995 are investigated with the GEOS-CHEM model, a global three-dimensional model of the troposphere driven by assimilated meteorological observations from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS). This model is used to investigate the sensitivity of tropospheric ozone with respect to (1) changes in the anthropogenic emission of nitrogen oxides and nonmethane hydrocarbons, (2) increases in methane concentrations, (3) variations in the stratospheric source of ozone, (4) changes in solar radiation resulting from stratospheric ozone depletion, and ( 5 ) increases in tropospheric temperatures. Model results indicate that local increases in NO, emissions have caused most of the increases seen in lower tropospheric ozone over Europe and Japan. Increases in methane are responsible for roughly one fifth of the anthropogenically induced increase in tropospheric ozone at northern midlatitudes. However, changes in ozone precursors do not adequately explain either the spatial differences in observed ozone trends across midlatitudes or the observed decreases in ozone over Canada throughout the troposphere. We argue that ozone depletion in the lowermost stratosphere is likely to have reduced the stratospheric source by as much as 30% from the early 1970s to the mid 1990s. Model simulations that account for such a reduction along with reported changes in anthropogenic emissions show steep declines of ozone in the upper troposphere and variable increases in the lower troposphere that are more consistent with observations. Differential temperature trends in summer between North America and Europe may account for at least some of the remaining spatial variation in tropospheric ozone trends. Increases in ultraviolet (UV) radiation due to stratospheric ozone depletion do not appear to significantly reduce tropospheric ozone, except at midlatitudes in the Southern Hemisphere following the breakup of the ozone hole.

Fusco, Andrew C.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning

Land use and climate changes both affect terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we used three combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1xRCP26, SSP3xRCP60, and SSP5xRCP85) as input to three dynamic global vegetation models to assess the impacts and associated uncertainty on several ecosystem functions: terrestrial carbon storage and fluxes, evapotranspiration, surface albedo, and runoff. We also performed sensitivity simulations in which we kept either land use or climate (including atmospheric CO2) constant from year 2015 on to calculate the isolated land use versus climate effects. By the 2080–2099 period, carbon storage increases by up to 87 ± 47 Gt (SSP1xRCP26) compared to present day, with large spatial variance across scenarios and models. Most of the carbon uptake is attributed to drivers beyond future land use and climate change, particularly the lagged effects of historic environmental changes. Future climate change typically increases carbon stocks in vegetation but not soils, while future land use change causes carbon losses, even for net agricultural abandonment (SSP1xRCP26). Evapotranspiration changes are highly variable across scenarios, and models do not agree on the magnitude or even sign of change of the individual effects. A calculated decrease in January and July surface albedo (up to −0.021 ± 0.007 and −0.004 ± 0.004 for SSP5xRCP85) and increase in runoff (+67 ± 6 mm/year) is largely driven by climate change. Overall, our results show that future land use and climate change will both have substantial impacts on ecosystem functioning. However, future changes can often not be fully explained by these two drivers and legacy effects have to be considered.

Krause, A.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning

land use change↗

NASA NTRS1987

Sensitivity analysis for airborne and spaceborne DIAL measurements of H2O profiles

Random and systematic error sourses are presently analyzed for atmospheric H2O detection in the vicinity of the 720 nm absorption bands with Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL). Attention is given to the random errors due to undertainties in the measurement of the lidar signal and noise that are associated with the background and detector dark currents. Systematic errors are related to Doppler broadening due to backscattering from air molecules, the pressure shift of H2O lines, laser line distortions, spectral impurities, and laser tuning errors. Global measurements of H2O profiles from spaceborne DIAL systems are achievable with 200 m vertical x 10 km horizontal during nighttime, and 250 m vertical x 20 km horizontal during daytime.

Ismail, Syed↗

NASA NTRS1995

Global Analysis, Interpretation, and Modelling: First Science Conference

Topics considered include: Biomass of termites and their emissions of methane and carbon dioxide - A global database; Carbon isotope discrimination during photosynthesis and the isotope ratio of respired CO2 in boreal forest ecosystems; Estimation of methane emission from rice paddies in mainland China; Climate and nitrogen controls on the geography and timescales of terrestrial biogeochemical cycling; Potential role of vegetation feedback in the climate sensitivity of high-latitude regions - A case study at 6000 years B.P.; Interannual variation of carbon exchange fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems; and Variations in modeled atmospheric transport of carbon dioxide and the consequences for CO2 inversions.

Sahagian, Dork↗