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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Experimental determination of hydrogen isotopic equilibrium in the system H 2 O (l) -H 2(g) from 3 to 90 °C

Molecular hydrogen (H 2 ) is found in a variety of settings on and in the Earth from low-temperature sediments to hydrothermal vents, and is actively being considered as an energy resource for the transition to a green energy future. The hydrogen isotopic composition of H 2 , given as D/H ratios or δD, varies in nature by hundreds of per mil from ∼−800 ‰ in hydrothermal and sedimentary systems to ∼+450 ‰ in the stratosphere. This range reflects a variety of processes, including kinetic isotope effects associated with formation and destruction and equilibration with water, the latter proceeding at fast (order year) timescales at low temperatures (<100 °C). At isotopic equilibrium, the D/H fractionation factor between liquid water and hydrogen ( D α H2O(l)-H2(g) ) is a function of temperature and can thus be used as a geothermometer for H 2 formation or re-equilibration temperatures. Multiple studies have produced theoretical calculations for hydrogen isotopic equilibrium between H 2 and water vapor. However, only three published experimental calibrations used in geochemistry exist for the H 2 O-H 2 system: two between 51 and 742 °C for H 2 O (g) -H 2(g) (Suess, 1949, Cerrai et al., 1954), and one in the H 2 O (l) -H 2(g) system for temperatures <100 °C (Rolston et al., 1976). Despite these calibrations existing, there is uncertainty on their accuracy at low temperatures (<100 °C; e.g., Horibe and Craig, 1995).

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Refining Principal Stress Measurements in Reservoir Underburden in Regions of Induced Seismicity through Seismological Tools, Laboratory Experiments - Final Technical Report

This project developed methodologies to measure the in-situ principal stress in the deep subsurface through use of multiple independent, but complementary, seismic methods, laboratory verification, and development of theoretical frameworks. By leveraging existing regional and local datasets we developed, tested, and refined a set of diagnostic tools for determining the in-situ stress state with reduced uncertainty at and below reservoir depths (1.5-6 km). A set of novel tools was produced that are scale independent, such that their utility is equivalent on regional, field scale, and near borehole monitoring of principal stresses in reservoir underburden for carbon storage projects. During a 4-year Department of Energy (DOE) and Southern Company funded project, carried out by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), the University of Oklahoma (OU), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the project team developed methodologies to measure the far-field in-situ principal stress in the deep subsurface, leveraging induced seismicity data from waste-water disposal projects. These methodologies consisted in the use of well-established and technically advanced seismic processing methods, such as virtual seismometer method-moment tensor (VSM-MT) and shear wave splitting (SWS), that are adept at recovering the stress orientation and certain components of the stress tensor. These methods were applied to robust seismicity catalogs created with matched filter techniques near sites of active fluid disposal—a proxy for carbon storage sites where such datasets are more limited. Estimates of the stress orientation made with seismic processing tools were considered along with laboratory acoustic emission experiments conducted on rock samples from the region of interest. Stress orientations in the studied region do not vary significantly across distances of ~100 km, nor are they found to rotate through time as a consequence of local wastewater disposal, as previously speculated. Finally, the project team investigated the trade-offs among the different seismic methods and evaluated the range of uncertainty that is generated with these methodologies, which led to a practical use and refinement of the VSM-MT technique when it is applied to field datasets. Understanding the trade-offs between these different methods highlighted the potential benefits of improved quantification of uncertainties on stress field estimations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Scale-Dependent Value of QPF for Real-Time Streamflow Forecasting

Incorporating rainfall forecasts into a real-time streamflow forecasting system extends the forecast lead time. Since quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) are subject to substantial uncertainties, questions arise on the trade-off between the time horizon of the QPF and the accuracy of the streamflow forecasts. This study explores the problem systematically, exploring the uncertainties associated with QPFs and their hydrologic predictability. The focus is on scale dependence of the trade-off between the QPF time horizon, basin-scale, space-time scale of the QPF, and streamflow forecasting accuracy. To address this question, the study first performs a comprehensive independent evaluation of the QPFs at 140 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) monitored basins with a wide range of spatial scales (~10 – 40,000 km 2 ) over the state of Iowa in the Midwestern United States. The study uses High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) and Global Forecasting System (GFS) QPFs for short and medium-range forecasts, respectively. Using Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) quantitative precipitation estimate (QPE) as a reference, the results show that the rainfall-to-rainfall QPF errors are scale-dependent. The results from the hydrologic forecasting experiment show that both QPFs illustrate clear value for real-time streamflow forecasting at longer lead times in the short- to medium-range relative to the no-rain streamflow forecast. The value of QPFs for streamflow forecasting is particularly apparent for basin sizes below 1,000 km 2 . The space-time scale, or reference time t r ) (ratio of forecast lead time to basin travel time) ~ 1 depicts the largest streamflow forecasting skill with a systematic decrease in forecasting accuracy for t r > 1.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Review of Coupled Geochemical–Geomechanical Impacts in Subsurface CO 2 , H 2 , and Air Storage Systems

Increased demand for decarbonization and renewable energy has led to increasing interest in engineered subsurface storage systems for large-scale carbon reduction and energy storage. In these applications, a working fluid (CO 2 , H 2 , air, etc.) is injected into a deep formation for permanent sequestration or seasonal energy storage. The heterogeneous nature of the porous formation and the fluid–rock interactions introduce complexity and uncertainty in the fate of the injected component and host formations in these applications. Interactions between the working gas, native brine, and formation mineralogy must be adequately assessed to evaluate the efficiency, risk, and viability of a particular storage site and operational regime. This study reviews the current state of knowledge about coupled geochemical–geomechanical impacts in geologic carbon sequestration (GCS), underground hydrogen storage (UHS), and compressed air energy storage (CAES) systems involving the injection of CO 2 , H 2 , and air. Specific review topics include (1) existing injection induced geochemical reactions in these systems; (2) the impact of these reactions on the porosity and permeability of host formation; (3) the impact of these reactions on the mechanical properties of host formation; and (4) the investigation of geochemical-geomechanical process in pilot scale GCS. This study helps to facilitate an understanding of the potential geochemical–geomechanical risks involved in different subsurface energy storage systems and highlights future research needs.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating the CO 2 Fertilization Effect on Extratropical Forest Productivity From Flux‐Tower Observations

Abstract The land sink of anthropogenic carbon emissions, a crucial component of mitigating climate change, is primarily attributed to the CO 2 fertilization effect on global gross primary productivity (GPP). However, direct observational evidence of this effect remains scarce, hampered by challenges in disentangling the CO 2 fertilization effect from other long‐term confounding drivers, particularly climatic changes. Here, we introduce a novel statistical approach to separate the CO 2 fertilization effect on photosynthetic carbon uptake using eddy covariance (EC) records across 38 extratropical forest sites. We find the median stimulation rate of GPP to be 3.2 ± 0.9 gC m −2 yr −1 ppm −1 (or 16.4 ± 4.2% per 100 ppm) under increasing atmospheric CO 2 across these sites, respectively. To validate the robustness of our findings, we test our statistical method using factorial simulations of an ensemble of process‐based land surface models. We address additional factors, including nitrogen deposition and land management, that may impact plant productivity, potentially confounding the attribution to the CO 2 fertilization effect. Assuming these site‐specific effects offset to some extent across sites as random factors, the estimated median value still reflects the strength of the CO 2 fertilization effect. However, disentanglement of these long‐term effects, often inseparable by timescale, requires further causal research. Our study provides direct evidence that the photosynthetic stimulation is maintained under long‐term CO 2 fertilization across multiple EC sites. Such observation‐based quantification is key to constraining the long‐standing uncertainties in the land carbon cycle under rising CO 2 concentrations.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing reservoir performance for geologic carbon sequestration in offshore saline reservoirs

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a technological strategy to reduce CO 2 emissions from hydrocarbon-based energy production and non-energy industrial emitters, like fertilizer and cement production. To expand the geographic opportunities for CCS, offshore geologic settings are increasingly considered for saline CO 2 storage, particularly where legacy oil and gas infrastructure may be repurposed for CO 2 transport and injection. In this context, the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), United States (U.S.), may offer tremendous opportunity for CCS because the surrounding states are among the largest CO 2 producers in the U.S. and there has been extensive oil and gas development over the last half century. Nevertheless, there remains significant uncertainty in how GoM reservoir/seal systems will respond to industrial-scale CO 2 injections, particularly in the context of meso-scale (1–10s of meters) permeability variations that are difficult to identify prior to injection. Such permeability variations can have significant impacts on CO 2 migration and fluid pressure propagation, both of which govern the overall effectiveness of the CCS project. This research uses ensemble simulation methods to quantify the influence of spatially variable and a priori unknown permeability fields on CO 2 plume development and fluid pressure propagation when CO 2 is injected at 1 MMt per year for ten years. Results show a number of characteristic patterns that reveal the substantial influence of both near- and far-field permeability on reservoir performance. By focusing on basin characteristics that are common among offshore basins worldwide, results from this study suggest that offshore CCS may be a feasible carbon management strategy in regions where offshore basins are proximal to industrial CO 2 sources.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Isotopic analysis of sub-nanogram neodymium loads using new ATONA™ amplifiers

The long-term gains of the ATONA™ amplifiers are shown to have less than 1 ppm variability. Repeat measurements of the JNdi-1 reference material demonstrate the ability of the ATONA™ amplification technology to make measurements of 143 Nd/ 144 Nd ratios with 23 ppm external reproducibility on 100-pg loads. The effect of increasing integration time on analytical reproducibility is also displayed as increasing integration time from 10 to 30s reduced the external measurement uncertainty from 37 to 23 ppm. These measurements represent an improvement of more than a factor of 3 in external measurement reproducibility relative to previously published 143 Nd/ 144 Nd measurements of 100-pg loads. Furthermore, this new technology will allow for the measurement of smaller samples for precise isotope ratios and open new avenues of research in the geological and nuclear forensic communities.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Local-Distance Seismic Event Relocation and Relative Magnitude Estimation, Applications to Mining Related Seismicity in the Powder River Basin, Wyoming

Recent efforts to characterize small ( M w < 3 ) seismic events at local distances have become more important because of the increased observation of human-triggered and induced seismicity and the need to advance nuclear explosion monitoring capabilities. The signals generated by low-magnitude seismic sources necessitate the use of nearby short-period observations, which are sensitive to local geological heterogeneity. Local to near-regional distance ( < 300 km ) surface and shear waves can dominate short-period observations from small, shallow seismic sources. In this work, we utilize these observations to estimate precise, relative locations and magnitudes of ~ 700 industrial mining events in Wyoming, using nearly 360,000 observations. The precise, relative location estimates (with formal location uncertainty estimates of less than 1 km) collapse a diffuse collection of mining events into discrete clusters associated with individual blasting operations. We also invert the cross-correlation amplitudes to estimate precise, relative moment magnitude estimates, which help validate and identify disparities in the event sizes reported by regional network catalogs. Joint use of multiple phases allows for the inclusion of more seismic events due to the increase in the number of observations. In some cases, using a single phase allowed us to relocate only 50% of the original reported seismic events within a cluster. Combining shear- and surface-wave phases increased the number of events to above 90% of the original events, allowing us to characterize a broader range of event sizes, source to station distances, and event distributions. This analysis takes a step toward making a fuller characterization of small industrial seismic events observed at local distances.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using Cosmic Ray Muons to Assess Geological Characteristics in the Subsurface

Cosmic rays are energetic nuclei and elementary particles that originate from stars and intergalactic events. The interaction of these particles with the upper atmosphere produces a wide range of secondary particles that reach the surface of the earth, of which muons are the most prominent. With enough energy, muons can travel up to a few kilometers beneath the surface of the earth before being stopped completely. The terrestrial muon flux profile and associated zenith angle can be utilized to determine geological characteristics of a location (e.g., rock overburden and density) without having to use conventional methods such as boreholes. This work uses a low-power plastic scintillator-based muon detection system as a prototype for this non-destructive geological assay methodology. Four custom designed 102 cm x 51 cm x 5 cm plastic scintillation panels are used to realize two orthogonal detection planes. Optical photons from each scintillation panel are read using OnSemi J-Series 4x4 silicon photomultiplier (SiPM) arrays in conjunction with preamplifiers. Simultaneous triggers between detectors from two planes indicate a coincidence event which is recorded using the QuarkNet data acquisition system (DAQ) from Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. A custom detector holder was designed to securely mount the detection system and rotate the panels along the zenith to collect data at variable angles. In order to quantify the systematic uncertainties associated with the detector, such as energy depositions and angular resolution of the detector design, a Monte Carlo (MC) simulation using Geant4 is being developed. Cosmic ray flux prediction will be included in the project by adding the CORSIKA MC code to the simulation toolchain. Simulated and experimental data will drive the development and validation of a reconstruction algorithm that, upon completion, is expected to predict average overburden and rock density. Extended detector exposure to muons can be used as a means to understand changes in the surrounding environment like rock porosity. On the experimental front, muons will initially be measured at the surface, establishing the baseline flux. This is followed by recording the muon flux at variable depths and zenith angles, where the data will be used by the reconstruction algorithm to predict the overburden. The result will be benchmarked against geological surveys. The measured flux data will also be used to benchmark independent and established models. Successful proof-of-concept demonstration of this technology can open doors for long term non-invasive geological monitoring. The detector design, experimental methodology, and the benchmarking efforts are detailed in this work.

Gadey, Harish Reddy↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ecological acclimation: A framework to integrate fast and slow responses to climate change

Ecological responses to climate change occur across vastly different time-scales, from minutes for physiological plasticity to decades or centuries for community turnover and evolutionary adaptation. Accurately predicting the range of ecosystem trajectories will require models that incorporate both fast processes that may keep pace with climate change and slower ones likely to lag behind and generate disequilibrium dynamics. However, the knowledge necessary for this integration is currently fragmented across disciplines. We develop ‘ecological acclimation’ as a unifying framework to emphasize the similarity of dynamics driven by processes operating on dramatically different time-scales and levels of biological organization. The framework focuses on ecoclimate sensitivities, measured as the change in an ecological response variable per unit of climate change. Acclimation processes acting at different time-scales cause these sensitivities to shift in magnitude and even direction over time. We highlight shifting ecoclimate sensitivities in case studies from diverse ecosystems, including terrestrial plant communities, coral reefs and soil microbiomes. Models predicting future ecosystem states inevitably make assumptions about acclimation processes; these assumptions must be explicit for users to evaluate whether a model is appropriate for a given forecast horizon. Similarly, decision frameworks that clearly account for multiple acclimation processes and their distinct time-scales will help natural resource managers plan for ecological impacts of climate change from years to many decades into the future. We outline a synthetic research programme focused on the time-scales of ecological acclimation to reduce uncertainty in ecological forecasts.

climate adaptation↗
DOE OSTI2021

NRAP-Open-IAM Analytical Reservoir Model: Development and Testing

Geological carbon sequestration (GCS) is a key technology for reducing global carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Over the last decade, the U.S. Department of Energy has invested in understanding the science base, developing practical implementation methods, and demonstrating secure GCS technologies to mitigate the environmental impacts associated with the atmospheric release of CO 2 . As part of the National Risk Assessment Partnership, a systems-level risk assessment tool, called the NRAP-Open-IAM, has been developed to conduct risk assessment and enable safe operations at a GCS site. The current NRAP-Open-IAM contains a simple reservoir model component that calculates the evolution of CO 2 saturation and fluid pressure in a storage reservoir during CO 2 injection operations. This report presents the development and testing of a new analytical reservoir reduced-order model (ROM), which is extended from an existing semi-analytical model for estimation of CO 2 and brine leakage along legacy wells, and enhances the capability of the NRAP-Open-IAM to simulate more types of reservoir conditions. The developed model is validated against three reference studies, and the results indicate that the new ROM predicts the behavior of the two-phase fluids (brine and injected CO 2 ) well and is applicable to different reservoir simulation boundary conditions (i.e., constant pressure boundary and infinite-acting boundary) without a priori user specification of the boundary type. Sensitivity analysis for a set of model parameters is performed using 4,000 synthetic cases prepared via a fully automated process and using machine-learning-based feature selection. The stochastic analysis identifies gravitational number (i.e., ratio of gravitational forces to viscous force) and distance between the injection well and observation location as the most impactful parameters for matching the pressure and CO 2 saturation, respectively, between the numerical simulations and the ROM. This report details the possible ROM uncertainties and serves as a guide for users to understand the use and limitations of this ROM. The code implementation of the model will be released as a module within the NRAP-Open-IAM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integrated Hydro-Terrestrial Modeling: Development of a National Capability

Water is one of our most important natural resources and is essential to our national economy and security. Multiple federal government agencies have mission elements that address national needs related to water. Each water-related agency champions a unique science and/or operational mission focused on advancing a portion of the nation’s ability to meet our water-related challenges. These diverse mission needs have engendered a rich and extensive base of water-related data and modeling capabilities. While useful for their intended purposes, these capabilities are not well integrated to address complex regional problems and overarching national problems. These major investments by a number of federal agencies, however, lay the foundation for an integrated hydro-terrestrial modeling and data infrastructure that will enhance knowledge, understanding, prediction, and management of the nation’s diverse water challenges. Creating a more seamless national hydro-terrestrial modeling and data capacity presents an enormous opportunity to advance operational as well as research capabilities leading to more effective water management. Advances are necessary not only in operational tools for forecasting but also in research to identify and resolve knowledge and data gaps that lead to unacceptable uncertainties in forecast outcomes. As such, close coordination across scientific, operational, and resource management communities is required. To this end, an interagency workshop on “Integrated Hydro-Terrestrial Modeling: Development of a National Capacity” was held at the National Science Foundation (NSF) headquarters in Alexandria, Virginia in September 2019, led jointly by the NSF, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and with broader interagency support provided through an interagency steering committee. This workshop provided a venue to bring together representatives of water-related agencies and their scientific partners (including university researchers) to initiate and refine a vision for a national Integrated Hydro-Terrestrial Modeling (IHTM) and data infrastructure and advance ideas towards its development. The workshop was designed to address three critical foci to advance the development of a national IHTM capacity: “Priority Water Challenges” around which to motivate and initiate development; Technical and methodological obstacles related to data and modeling; Organizational, structural, and cultural barriers that heretofore have impeded integration of capabilities across the federal and research landscapes. The following “Priority Water Challenge” domain areas represent targets for initiating development of the IHTM and were identified and selected in alignment with priorities of the administration’s Water Sub-Cabinet: (1) Nutrient loading, hypoxia, and harmful algal blooms; (2) Water availability in the western United States; and (3) Extreme weather-related water hazards. These water challenges span agency mission boundaries and encompass a broad range of geographies, complex system dynamics and feedbacks, and critical processes spanning hydrological, climatic, and biophysical systems as well as land-use/land-cover, agricultural, built infrastructure, societal, economic, and decisional environments. These three Priority Water Challenges cannot be fully addressed without leveraging complementary and synergistic capabilities across multiple agencies.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Newton trust-region methods with primary variable switching for simulating high temperature multiphase porous media flow

Coupling multiphase flow with energy transport due to high temperature heat sources introduces significant new challenges since boiling and condensation processes can lead to dry-out conditions with subsequent re-wetting. The transition between two-phase and single-phase behavior can require changes to the primary dependent variables adding discontinuities as well as extending constitutive nonlinear relations to extreme physical conditions. Practical simulations of large-scale engineered domains lead to Jacobian systems with a very large number of unknowns that must be solved efficiently using iterative methods in parallel on high-performance computers. Performance assessment of potential nuclear repositories, carbon sequestration sites and geothermal reservoirs can require numerous Monte-Carlo simulations to explore uncertainty in material properties, boundary conditions, and failure scenarios. Due to the numerical challenges, standard NR iteration may not converge over the range of required simulations and require more sophisticated optimization method like trust-region. In this study, we use the open-source simulator PFLOTRAN for the important practical problem of the safety assessment of future nuclear waste repositories in the U.S. DOE geologic disposal safety assessment Framework. The simulator applies the PETSc parallel framework and a backward Euler, finite volume discretization. We demonstrate failure of the conventional NR method and the success of trust-region modifications to Newton’s method for a series of test problems of increasing complexity. Trust-region methods essentially modify the Newton step size and direction under some circumstances where the standard NR iteration can cause the solution to diverge or oscillate. Furthermore, we show how the Newton Trust-Region method can be adapted for Primary Variable Switching (PVS) when the multiphase state changes due to boiling or condensation. The simulations with high-temperature heat sources which led to extreme nonlinear processes with many state changes in the domain did not converge with NR, but they do complete successfully with the trust-region methods modified for PVS. This implementation effectively decreased weeks of simulation time needing manual adjustments to complete a simulation down to a day. Finally, we show the strong scalability of the methods on a single node and multiple nodes in an HPC cluster.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Subtask 1.3 – Integrated Carbon Capture and Storage for North Dakota Ethanol Production

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC), in partnership with Red Trail Energy, LLC (RTE), a North Dakota ethanol producer; the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) Renewable Energy Program (REP); and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), conducted a feasibility and implementation study for a commercial carbon capture and storage (CCS) effort. This subtask provided technical support and developed recommended practices of how small-scale industrial CO2 emitters (<1,000,000 tonnes of CO2 emitted annually) may economically deploy CCS. The 64-million-gallon dry mill RTE ethanol facility, emitting an average 180,000 tonnes of CO2 annually, was the subject of the case study. The positive outcome of this research, which shows technical and economic potential for ethanol–CCS in North Dakota, has resulted in RTE acquiring an approved Permit to Drill on December 2, 2019, for a stratigraphic test well in early 2020, a necessary step toward a North Dakota CO2 Storage Facility Permit (SFP) for the RTE CCS effort. Outcomes include 1) validating the Broom Creek Formation as a regional target for CCS, 2) determining the full carbon life cycle of an industrial fuel production facility with CCS, 3) developing a field implementation plan (FIP) for small-scale CCS, and 4) determining the validity and pathway for using CCS to meet low-carbon fuel (LCF) standards. The technical team included the EERC, RTE, Trimeric Corporation, Schlumberger Carbon Services, and Computer Modelling Group (CMG). Findings from activities conducted November 2016 – May 2020 are summarized as follows. Several key steps have been accomplished toward validating the Broom Creek Formation as a CO2 injection and storage target at the RTE CCS site, including verification of the presence and structure of sandstone layers that may comprise the potential CO2 storage reservoir and the several thousand feet of overlying confining zone. Work included site characterization using existing data, interpretation of seismic data within the study area, and geologic modeling simulation of CO2 injection. Interpreted results estimate 3000 feet of confining zone between the Broom Creek Formation (storage target) and the lowermost underground source of drinking water (e.g., the Fox Hills Formation). The thickness of the Broom Creek injection target varies 230–420 ft within the survey area. Results were used to inform the location of a stratigraphic test well and associated characterization test program. No impediments were identified within the targeted CO2 storage complex that would prevent the project from moving forward. A stratigraphic test well is the next step to validate these results and to acquire remaining data necessary to develop a North Dakota CO2 SFP application. The EERC generated full carbon life cycle estimates for CCS integration with the RTE ethanol facility. Results indicated that an average 40% reduction in CO2 emissions is possible through CCS implementation. Approximately half of the carbon in the overall life cycle for a dry mill ethanol plant is generated through the fermentation process and emitted to the atmosphere; this is the CO2 stream targeted for CCS. The remaining carbon is attributed to corn feedstock farming (diesel, fertilizer), energy for fuel processing (natural gas, electricity), and transportation (diesel) of the fuel product. Life cycle carbon estimates are also affected by the anticipated energy consumption of a potential capture facility, which depend on the type of CO2 product generated. For example, a 30%–40% net CO2 emission reduction is estimated if a liquefied CO2 facility were incorporated compared to a 40%–50% net CO2 reduction if a supercritical “injection-grade” CO2 product is generated; i.e., more energy is required to further refine the CO2 stream, affecting the full carbon life cycle estimates. A CCS FIP was developed and initiated at the RTE CCS site, resulting in the development of several guidance documents: a CO2 Capture Process Design Package, a North Dakota CO2 geologic Storage Permits Template, and a Public Outreach Package for CCS in North Dakota. General FIP components include CO2 capture system, pipeline and well designs; monitoring, verification, and accounting (MVA) plans; geologic characterization and testing programs; and permitting and outreach plans. Vendor bids were also acquired for the CO2 liquefaction facility. Near-surface characterization (groundwater and soil gas sampling) and geologic characterization (seismic survey) were initiated to inform development of a UIC Class VI-compliant MVA plan compliant with a North Dakota CO2 SFP. Designs (well and geologic testing) were completed for a stratigraphic test well compliant with a North Dakota CO2 SFP. In addition, the outreach plan was executed, including community open houses, meetings with city/county/state officials, and development of public materials. Although other entities continued to mature incentive programs in 2019–2020, California and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) currently provide the most advanced economic opportunities for CCS integrated with fuel production. The California Low-Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) adopted a CCS Protocol in January 2019, allowing submittal of a design-based pathway (DBP) application for an approved temporary (not certified) carbon intensity value for a fully engineered facility. An ethanol–CCS DBP application to the California LCFS Program (officially approved February 28, 2020) was developed to show that the RTE CCS effort meets LCFS requirements. The approved DBP provides confidence to advance the project and supports potential investments. Other entities continue to mature incentive programs. The IRS issued guidance in February 2020 that addresses the definition of beginning of construction and revenue procedure on partnerships for the Enhancement of Carbon Dioxide Sequestration Credit (a.k.a. Section 45Q) CCS tax credit program; the IRS anticipates issuing further guidance on issues such as secure geologic storage, utilization qualifications, and recapture of claimed credits. Maturing incentive programs coupled with workable permitting regulations provide confidence to advance CCS projects in North Dakota and support financial investment to proceed with designing, constructing, and implementing CCS projects at small-scale fuel production facilities. The largest hurdles for CCS implementation at small-scale industrial systems are often business/economic-related (i.e., not technical). Market uncertainty already exists for agriculture-based alternative fuels such as corn ethanol, for which production has increased by ~33%, and prices have correspondingly lowered since 2015. Passing the Section 45Q tax credit program improves economic feasibility for CCS but may require external investors for a small business to achieve maximum benefits. Public–private partnerships with NDIC and DOE have resulted in foundational technical and regulatory knowledge, growing stakeholder confidence, and a pathway to implementation that enables similar industrial CCS projects in the region to advance. This subtask was funded through the EERC–DOE Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by NDIC and RTE. The authors would also like to thank CMG, ESRI, IHS, Neuralog, and Schlumberger for allowing the use of their software packages in support of this work.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Physics-informed machine learning for fault-leakage reduced-order modeling

Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is a promising technology for mitigating CO 2 emissions. The overall success of GCS depends on safe operations that are informed by risk assessment and have proper mitigation plans in place. Performing quantitative probabilistic risk assessment for a GCS site using traditional reservoir simulators can be challenging due to the high computational costs. To overcome this challenge, the US Department of Energy’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) project has developed an integrated assessment modeling approach that utilizes computationally efficient reduced-order models (ROM) for simulating various parts of a GCS storage site to quantify uncertainty. Here, in this study, we develop a reduced-order model for fault leakage risk assessment. We use a deep learning approach to build the reduced-order model. We perform a sensitivity analysis and find that the deep learning model yields high accuracy with a much smaller computational cost than full-physics simulation. We also evaluate the performance of the model in scenarios where simulations are not possible to run, providing analysis not previously performed in fault-leakage ROM analyses. Based on a sensitivity analysis of the model, we suggest a simplified conceptual model for fault leakage and site monitoring.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Process Interactions Can Change Process Ranking in a Coupled Complex System Under Process Model and Parametric Uncertainty

For a complex hydrologic system with multiple processes and process interactions, global sensitivity analysis is often used to identify important or influential parameters for model development and improvement. The identification is complicated by process model uncertainty, when a system process can be represented by multiple process models. This study develops a new total-effect process sensitivity index to identify influential processes under model uncertainty. This is done by extending Sobol's total-effect parameter sensitivity index for one system model to total-effect process sensitivity index for multiple system models to account for uncertainty in process models and model parameters. The total-effect process sensitivity index includes not only the first-order process sensitivity index for measuring the importance of individual processes but also higher-order indices that account for process interactions. The total-effect process sensitivity index can identify an influential process that itself and its interactions with other processes influence a model output. Here, the total-effect process sensitivity index is applied to two numerical examples: (a) Sobol's G*-functions with analytical solutions of first-order and total-effect process sensitivity indices, and (b) groundwater flow models with interactions between recharge, geology, and snowmelt processes. The second evaluation shows that, due to second-order and higher-order process interactions, the first-order and total-effect process sensitivity indices give different process ranking. It is thus necessary to estimate both first-order and total-effect process sensitivity indices to appreciate the difference between the first-order impact of a process alone and the overall total-effect impact of the process itself and its interactions with other processes on a model output.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Consequences of Altered Root Nutrient Uptake for Soil Carbon Stabilization (Final Report)

Objectives: The primary objectives of this project are to improve our understanding of tropical forest belowground processes, and to increase representation of this biome in ecosystem-scale and global C cycle models. Belowground dynamics present a major source of uncertainty inhibiting our ability to predict C cycle responses to climate change. Representation of tropical forests in these models is particularly lacking, even though these ecosystems hold >25% of terrestrial C stocks. While the majority of humid tropical forests exist on relatively infertile soils (i.e. poor in rock-derived nutrients), enormous gradients in soil nutrient availability exist at landscape-scales due to shifts in geology and soil order. Soil fertility is likely to greatly influence how tropical soil C storage will respond to the declines in precipitation predicted for the tropics. In particular, root dynamics vary across soil fertility gradients, with roots representing the major input of C to subsurface soils. Root characteristics related to soil fertility include biomass, turnover, C exudates, tissue chemistry, and nutrient uptake rates, with each of these likely sensitive to changes in moisture. The proposed project will fully integrate field research with an existing ecosystem model to assess potential effects of drying on belowground tropical C dynamics across a range of soil fertilities. Project Description:. This project will identify key linkages among soil fertility, root nutrient uptake, root dynamics, and soil C storage. The hypothesized framework for understanding these linkages is: Tropical rainforest roots in relatively fertile soils have lesser root biomass, faster turnover, fewer exudates, and improved root tissue quality relative to infertile sites, all resulting from increased root nutrient uptake. Ultimately, these root characteristics in fertile soils promote proportionally greater long-term soil C storage in organo-mineral associations. Specifically, lower root exudates and improved root tissue quality in fertile soils reduce microbial respiration of extant soil C (i.e. “priming) and increase microbial C use efficiency, leading to sorption of protein-rich microbial and plant organic matter on soil mineral surfaces. However, the larger pools of mineral-associated C in fertile tropical soils are more vulnerable to decreased rainfall than smaller C pools in infertile soils, in part because of the lesser root biomass, faster turnover, and softer, more labile root tissues. Also, the shallower lateral rooting structures typical in fertile soils experience greater desiccation and death than deeper roots in infertile sites, with little short-term adaptation to drying.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Southeast Regional CO 2 Utilization and Storage Acceleration Partnership (SECARB-USA): Preliminary Regional Assessment of Potential Storage Complexes, Including Capacities and Costs, Based on Application of NRAP and SCO2T (Deliverable 3.3) Storage Complexes

The Recipient will assist with the field validation of one or more risk assessment toolsets through: 1) collaborative research; 2) sharing of relevant datasets, information, and technical insights from field efforts; and 3) other modeling and simulation toolsets as they are developed. Collaborative research could include, but is not limited to: 1) demonstrating use of field data for improved leakage pathway characterization, uncertainty reduction, and risk management and uncertainty workflows; 2) testing and validation of a specific National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) tool using site specific data; and 3) improved modeling or reduced-order modeling of geophysical monitoring.

42 ENGINEERING↗