SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
This profile provides a snapshot of the energy landscape of Palau, an independent island nation geographically located in the Micronesia region. Over 97% of the island's electricity production is dependent on imported fossil fuels, primarily diesel. Palau is aiming for 45% renewable energy generation by 2025, and is striving to overcome technological, financial, and institutional capacity challenges to meet this goal.
Power grid inertia plays a vital role in frequency stability following large disturbances, yet its distribution across the U.S. grid is highly uneven. While interconnection-wide inertia benchmarks are useful, they can mask regional variability driven by resource mix, network coupling, and geographic separation. This paper extends event-driven inertia estimation to the regional scale using field measurements from the Frequency Monitoring Network (FNET/GridEye). Starting from balancing authority and independent system operator footprints, candidate regions are refined using a composite coherency score that combines frequency-trajectory shape similarity, timing spread, and lead/lag behavior to ensure dynamic consistency. A filtered sliding difference method (FSDM) is then used to construct regional frequency trajectories, detect disturbance onset, and compute robust regional rate-of-change of frequency (RoCoF). Regional, local, and interconnection inertia are estimated by combining RoCoF with event power imbalance, and additional indicators (regional-to-system inertia ratio and inertial-support arrival time) quantify regional-to-interconnection coupling and relative regional contributions. The method is demonstrated on eleven regions across the Eastern Interconnection (EI) and the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), with the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) used for validation. In ERCOT, estimates compared against energy management system (EMS) values achieve a mean absolute percentage error of 17.94%. WECC exhibits consistently shorter inertial-support arrival times (0.15–0.3 s) than EI (0.7–1.1 s), highlighting contrasting coupling and disturbance-propagation behavior. Overall, the results reveal pronounced spatial heterogeneity in inertia and coupling, underscoring the value of regional monitoring for both operational decision-making and long-term system planning.
With an estimated $10.4 billion in medical costs and 31.4 million outpatient visits each year, influenza poses a serious burden of disease in the United States. To provide insights and advance warning into the spread of influenza, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) runs a challenge for forecasting weighted influenza-like illness (wILI) at the national and regional level. Many models produce independent forecasts for each geographical unit, ignoring the constraint that the national wILI is a weighted sum of regional wILI, where the weights correspond to the population size of the region. We propose a novel algorithm that transforms a set of independent forecast distributions to obey this constraint, which we refer to as probabilistically coherent. Enforcing probabilistic coherence led to an increase in forecast skill for 79% of the models we tested over multiple flu seasons, highlighting the importance of respecting the forecasting system’s geographical hierarchy.
Red leaf blotch of soybean, caused by the fungus Coniothyrium glycines, is a foliar disease characterized by blotching, necrosis, and defoliation that has only been reported from Africa. The species is listed as a Select Agent by the Federal Select Agent Program due to its potentially devastating impacts to soybean production should it spread to the United States. Despite its potential import, very few isolates are available for study. Herein, we obtained 96 new C. glycines isolates from six soybean-producing countries throughout sub-Saharan Africa. Along with 12 previously collected ones, we sequenced each at the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region. Between all isolates, we identified a total of 28 single-nucleotide polymorphisms and 23 haplotypes. One hypothesis to explain the tremendous diversity uncovered at the ITS—which is generally conserved within a species—is that our current species concept of C. glycines is too broad and that there may be multiple species that cause red leaf blotch. Zambia contained the highest haplotype diversity, a significant fraction of which remains unsampled. Most haplotypes were specific to a single country, except for two, which were found in Zambia and either neighboring Mozambique or Zimbabwe. This geographic specificity indicates that the ITS region may be useful for identifying source populations or routes of transmission should this pathogen spread beyond Africa. The observed geographic partitioning of this pathogen is likely the result of millions of years of replication on little-studied native hosts, given that soybean has only been cultivated in Africa since the early 1900s.
Automobile electrification is viewed as one of the key requirements for deep decarbonization of transportation. However, the exact magnitude of decarbonization from switching from a combustion of petroleum-based fuels to grid-derived electricity is a complex issue. Variations in local grid mixes lead to differing carbon intensities of electricity in different regions. This complexity is compounded by geographical differences in vehicle characteristics. This analysis considers these geographic differences to produce a historical assessment of the fuel-cycle carbon emissions of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) in the United States from 2011 to 2021. We find that PEVs in the United States decreased in electricity-derived carbon intensity, from 187 grams per mile to 110 grams per mile from 2011 to 2021 due to improvements in the electric grid and vehicle efficiency. Through 2021, PEVs emitted a total of 13.6 million metric tons of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the United States, including both emissions from electricity and gasoline, while driving a total of 100 billion miles. Of this total, 8.39 million metric tons was due to electricity consumption. Over the same distance, comparable gasoline vehicles would have emitted between 29 and 41 million metric tons of GHG, leading to a reduction of 15 to 27 million metric tons. Relative to national-level assessments that do not factor in this regional difference, these electric vehicles resulted in 13% greater reductions in GHG emissions than previously calculated. In the future, announced goals to further decarbonize the electricity sector will continue to reduce the emissions of PEVs, including reducing emissions rates for vehicles already on the road, further improving the benefits relative to the unchanging emissions of contemporaneous gasoline vehicles.
Grid-scale energy storage has been identified by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Energy Storage Grand Challenge as a necessary technology to support the continued build-out of intermittent renewable energy resources required to attain a carbon-free energy future. To meet this goal, the 2018 Department of Energy Research and Innovation Act mandated the creation of a comprehensive program to accelerate the development and commercialization of next-generation energy storage technologies. One of numerous energy storage technology options is the storage of excess energy as heated geothermal brine in suitable geologic formations. This concept, known as reservoir thermal energy storage (RTES), geologic thermal energy storage (GeoTES), aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES), etc., relies on the storage of thermal energy in geologic formations for recovery and use in large-scale direct use geothermal (e.g., district heating, industrial processes, etc.) and electrical power generation applications. This thermal energy is derived from excess or waste heat from any high-temperature heat source, such as concentrated solar or from conventional thermal/nuclear generation. As such, RTES can potentially play a significant role in meeting the energy storage shortfall in the coming decades. RTES can provide energy arbitrage through both the storage and production of thermal energy stored in geologic formations for direct use applications and can serve as a source of hot fluids that can be used to generate electricity to support peak demand ramping, thus easing stress on transmission and distribution. This energy storage option has geographic benefits in that energy can be stored locally or regionally depending on the various needs/loads. RTES can also be located across an enormous geographic area, without the need for a traditional hydrothermal resource but where thermal gradients and hydrogeology allow economic exploitation of subsurface heat. The work conducted for this project includes (1) a review of lessons learned from past high-temperature RTES international projects; (2) geochemical experimental investigation and numerical simulations of potential domestic sedimentary reservoirs and (3) development of a thermo-hydrological-mechanical (THM) numerical simulation tool for optimizing formation properties and design parameters to maximize thermal energy storage performance.
LocOO3D is a software tool that computes geographical locations for seismic events at regional to global scales. This software has a rich set of features, including the ability to use custom 3D velocity models, correlated observations and master event locations. The LocOO3D software is especially useful for research related to seismic monitoring applications, since it allows users to easily explore a variety of location methods and scenarios and is compatible with the CSS3.0 data format used in monitoring applications. The LocOO3D software, User's Manual, and Examples are available on the web at: https://github.com/sandialabs/LocOO3D For additional information on GeoTess, SALSA3D, RSTT, and other related software, please see: https://github.com/sandialabs/GeoTessJava, www.sandia.gov/geotess, www.sandia.gov/salsa3d, and www.sandia.gov/rstt
This dataset includes the Energy Zoning Database and geographic shapefiles used to identify suitable rural areas for utility-scale solar development. Additionally, it contains the input data required for the capacity expansion model, including information on existing electric generators and their associated costs, solar resource potential, and transmission infrastructure data. These datasets collectively support the analysis presented in the paper, ensuring a comprehensive assessment of zoning regulations, land suitability, and the economic and technical feasibility of solar deployment in rural areas.
Coastal areas are highly influenced by terrestrial runoffs and anthropogenic disturbances, commonly leading to ecological gradients from bay, nearshore, to offshore areas. Although the occurrence and distribution of sediment antibiotic resistome are explored in various coastal environments, little information is available regarding geographic patterns and determinants of coastal sediment antibiotic resistomes across ecological gradients at the regional scale. Here, using high-throughput quantitative PCR, we investigated the geographic patterns of 285 antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) in coastal sediments across a ~ 200 km scale in the East China Sea. Sediment bacterial communities and physicochemical properties were characterized to identify the determinants of sediments antibiotic resistome. Higher richness and abundance of ARGs were detected in the bay samples compared with those in nearshore and offshore samples, and significant negative correlations between the richness and/or abundance of ARGs and the distance to coastline (DTC) were identified, whereas different types of ARGs showed inconsistency in their relationships with DTC. The composition of antibiotic resistome showed significant correlations with nutrition-related variables (including NH 4 + -N, NO 3 − -N, and total phosphorus) and metals/metalloid (including As, Cu, Ni, and Zn), suggesting that terrestrial disturbances largely shape the antibiotic resistome. The Bipartite network showed strong associations between ARGs and mobile genetic elements (MGEs), and Partial Least Squares Path Modeling further revealed that terrestrial disturbance strength (as indicated by DTC) directly affected abiotic environmental conditions and bacterial community composition, and indirectly affected antibiotic resistome via MGEs. These findings provide insights into regional variability of sediment antibiotic resistome and its shaping path across complex ecological gradients, highlighting terrestrial disturbances as determinative forces in shaping coastal sediment antibiotic resistomes.
The lack of data on the impact of utility-scale solar facilities on avian species and populations adds to the cost of siting and operation. As much as 32 percent of the avian biological material (feathers and carcasses) recovered from solar facilities remain unidentified, because they often take the form of “feather spots”. Feather spots are remains of impacted animals that can be separated into two broad categories: 1) those remains that may be visually identified to a species, or 2) those that cannot be visually identified to a species due to degradation from the environment and/or scavenger activity (listed as “unknown”). Even when feather spots can be identified to species, they cannot be visually assigned to particular breeding populations. In some cases, it is unknown whether multiple feather spots represent single or multiple individuals. This project’s objectives were to: 1. Use a developed, genetic-based technique to identify and determine the species, population of origin, and number of individuals found in feather spots recovered from solar facilities. 2. Implement collected data and resulting analyses to develop a publicly accessible web-based decision-making tool that can be used by the solar industry, regulators and other stakeholders to inform siting, mitigation, and conservation management efforts. 3. Establish a not-for-profit fee-for-service center at UCLA to ensure collection and identification of feather spots continue after the project period of performance. During the Project Period, we proposed to establish a pipeline for collecting, transporting, and storing of avian biological material collected at solar facilities and the collection and identification of feather spots to species and individual. We proposed the development of a genetic-based framework that would recover viable DNA from feather spots, amplify this DNA (i.e., make millions of copies of the original DNA), and use it to match the resulting sequences to a national database of known species of birds. The result would be the identification of feathers spots that were previously unidentified, and the incorporation of these samples into a larger database that included all samples recovered from solar facilities. The resulting report (below) details the result of this work and its alignment with proposed activities. We proposed the use of the data collected to assess the comparative risk to specific species or populations of species from solar facilities. For some species, we have already identified genomic markers of specific breeding populations and developed “genoscapes,” maps of unique genetic variation across the full breeding range of a species. We used these (previously and newly developed) genoscapes to probabilistically link a feather spot to the specific breeding populations from which it originated (assignment probabilities range from 75%-100% depending on species and population groups). For those species without genoscapes, we developed a vulnerability and susceptibility estimate that determines the relative local and regional risk to populations that are in geographic proximity to solar facilities, using citizen science data (Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and eBird). These two feather spot processing pipelines (see Figure 1 below) provide quantitative estimates as to the numbers of individuals from a given population of origin that are affected by solar facilities, and ultimately can reduce costs to the consumer by reducing the industry costs associated with mitigation and siting strategies for future solar energy development.
This study focuses on one potential benefit of transmission infrastructure—congestion relief. It explores historical grid conditions from 2012 through the first half of 2022, and evaluates the marginal value of transmission in facilitating trade within and across regional boundaries by calculating differences in observed nodal wholesale power prices. The study finds that wholesale power prices exhibit stark geographic differences that, in many cases, are stable over time. Many regional and interregional transmission links have significant potential economic value from reducing congestion and expanding opportunities for trade. In fact, many links have hourly average pricing differences in 2021 that exceeded $\$15$/MWh—equivalent to $130 million per year for a 1000 MW link. The value of transmission is correlated with overall energy prices and varies by region and year. Critically, extreme conditions and high-value periods play an outsized role in the value of transmission, with 50% of transmission’s congestion value coming from only 5% of hours. Transmission planners run the risk of understating the benefits of regional and interregional transmission if extreme conditions and high-value periods are not adequately considered. These periods are natural features of actual market operations. As such, the study highlights the need for planners to more-comprehensively assess the value of transmission under both normal and extreme conditions.
There is growing recognition of the advantages of interregional transmission capacity to decarbonize electricity grids. A less explored benefit is potential performance improvements during extreme weather events. This study examines the impacts of cooperative transmission expansion planning using an advanced modeling chain to simulate power grid operations of the United States Western Interconnection in 2019 and 2059 under different levels of collaboration between transmission planning regions. Two historical heat waves in 2019 with varying geographical coverage are replayed under future climate change in 2059 to assess the transmission cooperation benefits during grid stress. The results show that cooperative transmission planning yields the best outcomes in terms of reducing wholesale electricity prices and minimizing energy outages both for the whole interconnection and individual transmission planning regions. Compared to individual planning, cooperative planning reduces wholesale electricity prices by 64.3 % and interconnection-wide total costs (transmission investments + grid operations) by 34.6 % in 2059. It also helps decrease greenhouse gas emissions by increasing renewable energy utilization. However, the benefits of cooperation diminish during the widespread heat wave when all regions face extreme electricity demand due to higher space cooling needs. Despite this, cooperative transmission planning remains advantageous, particularly for California Independent System Operator with significant diurnal solar generation capacity. This study suggests that cooperation in transmission planning is crucial for reducing costs and increasing reliability both during normal periods and extreme weather events. It highlights the importance of optimizing the strategic investments to mitigate challenges posed by wider-scale extreme weather events of the future.
Streamflow observations, essential for various water resource applications, are often unavailable at critical locations in need. Although different models have been proposed to enhance streamflow predictability at ungauged locations, the challenge extends beyond model fidelity. Differences in meteorologic forcing data sets, precipitation in particular, can significantly affect the accuracy of hydrologic predictions. This challenge intensifies across regions characterized by diverse hydro-climatological and geographical conditions, such as in the conterminous US (CONUS) where a single precipitation product struggles to consistently replicate observed hydrographs, particularly peak flow dynamics. To enhance streamflow predictions, we utilize a VIC-RAPID hydrologic modeling framework driven by multiple commonly used meteorological forcing data sets, such as Daymet, PRISM, ST4, AORC, and their hybrids and create multiple sets of 40-year (1980–2019) hourly, daily, and monthly streamflow reanalysis, Dayflow Version 2, for 2.7 million river reaches across the CONUS. Most forcings lead to skillful streamflow performance, except for ST4 in the mountainous west, where severe radar blockage adversely affects the accuracy. The evaluation using over 6,000 hourly stream gauges shows that hourly AORC and ST4 lead to improved annual peak flow performance over Daymet—driven streamflow (Dayflow V1), particularly in smaller basins, highlighting the value of high temporal resolution forcings in hydrologic predictions. Compared with other benchmark data sets like National Water Model V3.0, AORC-driven VIC-RAPID exhibits improved regional streamflow performance, with comparable peak flow representation. We envision that multi-forcing streamflow reanalysis data can inform regions in need of forcing data enhancement, diagnose hydrologic model performance, and benefit diverse water resource applications.
Abstract The expansion of wind power poses distinct and varied geographic challenges to a sustainable energy transition. However, current knowledge of its land use impacts and synergies is limited by reliance on static characterizations that overlook the role of turbine technology and plant design in mediating interactions with the environment. Here, we investigate how wind technology development and innovation have shaped landscape interactions with social and ecological systems within the United States and contribute to evolving land area requirements. This work assesses trends in key land use facets of wind power using a holistic set of metrics to establish an evidence base that researchers, technology designers, land use managers, and policymakers can use in envisioning how future wind-intensive energy systems may be jointly optimized for clean energy, social, and environmental objectives. Since 2000, we find dynamic land occupancy patterns and regional trends that are driven by advancing technology and geographic factors. Though most historical U.S. wind deployment has been confined to the temperate grassland biome in the nation’s interior, regional expansion has implicated diverse land use and cover types. A large percentage of the typical wind plant footprint (∼96% to > 99%) is not directly impacted by permanent physical infrastructure, allowing for multiple uses in the spaces between turbines. Surprisingly, turbines are commonly close to built structures. Moreover, rangeland and cropland have supported 93.4% of deployment, highlighting potential synergies with agricultural lands. Despite broadly decreasing capacity densities, offsetting technology improvements have stabilized power densities. Land use intensity, defined as the ratio of direct land usage to lifetime power generation of wind facilities, has also trended downwards. Although continued deployment on disturbed lands, and in close proximity to existing wind facilities and other infrastructure, could minimize the extent of impacts, ambitious decarbonization trajectories may predispose particular biomes to cumulative effects and risks from regional wind power saturation. Increased land-use and sustainability feedback in technology and plant design will be critical to sustainable management of wind power.
Carbon dioxide capture and geologic storage (CCS; geologic sequestration) is a promising technology for reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere from industrial point sources. Aspects of CCS have been investigated for over two decades, and many large- and small-scale geologic storage field demonstration projects are now underway globally. Interest in offshore CCS has been increasing in recent years (e.g., European Union, Australia, Japan, and the United States). Deep geologic storage in offshore settings is analogous to onshore CCS activities in many respects (i.e., geologic and geotechnical aspects), but is distinct from previously explored seabed sediment CO 2 storage) or deep marine dissolution). Given the large subsurface geologic storage volumes available in offshore settings, much discussion of offshore CCS is focused on the benefits and risks of such activity compared to onshore settings. Similar to onshore settings, existing (legacy) wells likely present the most direct migration pathway and largest risk of noncontainment in offshore settings. As part of current studies to evaluate geologic storage options in offshore settings along the Texas coast and greater Gulf of Mexico (GoM), mapping of the geographic distribution and ages of wells in a region containing coastal counties and extending 30 miles offshore Texas indicates that both well spatial density and well age decrease moving from onshore to offshore. Results suggest reduced risk of leakage owing to more rigorous and documented well completion and abandonment practices for these generally younger wells (although many are decades old). A result of decreased well density is that larger areas are available for leasing for CCS projects that avoid legacy wells altogether (> 1 mile from any existing well). The one-mile designation is used as an arbitrary convention, and while it is recognized that this is smaller than a typical area of review (AoR) for permitting, each site will have a different AoR radius for consideration. Finally, the combination of large subsurface storage volumes under control of a single landowner and reduced risks from legacy wells makes offshore CCS attractive in the GoM.
Water stored in the form of snow and glaciers in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region regulates the water supply, and resultant water-based economies, that support the livelihoods of millions of people. Trends in the seasonal and long-term melting of snow and glaciers, governed by initial ice reserves, meteorological factors and geographic features, vary across sub-basins in the HMA region. We examined the economic impacts of climate-led changes in river flow in two drainage basins, one each from the Karakoram and Central Himalaya region. We used an integrated assessment framework to estimate the changes in economic value of the hydropower generation from hydropower plants on rivers fed by snow and glacier melt in the two sub-basins. The framework, developed under a NASA High Mountain Asia project, coupled biophysical models (a suite of climate models, snow/glacier-hydrology, and hydropower model) with economic analysis. We compared the differences in estimated river flow over historic and future time using the water balance model in sixteen scenarios (eight climate models and two emissions scenarios) for rivers upstream of hydropower plants in each sub-basin. Using the hydropower model we developed, we estimated the changes in hydropower generation at the Naltar IV hydropower plant, with an 18 MW capacity, located in Hunza, Karakoram, and the Trishuli hydropower plant, with a 19.6 MW capacity, in Trishuli, Central Himalaya. When compared to their baselines, the estimated impact of climate change and temporal variability were higher for the Naltar plant than for the Trishuli plant. Our sensitivity analysis shows that hydropower plants with water storage facilities help reduce the impact of changes, but the estimated impacts are higher for the higher capacity plants. This study provides an example of the differential impacts of climate change on hydropower plants located in rivers fed by varying amounts of snow and glacier melt at different decades in this century. This type of integrated assessment of climate change impact will support the scientific understanding of hydrologic flow and its impacts on a hydropower economy under various climate scenarios, as well as generate information about water resource management in a changing climate.
Abstract Cornell University intends to use a deep direct-use geothermal system to heat its Ithaca, New York, campus. In preparation for this project, the Cornell Seismic Network has been monitoring the background seismicity in this intraplate region since 2019. From January 2020 to June 2023, 95 events were detected within 20 km of the proposed geothermal well site, with local magnitudes ranging from −1.02 to 0.56. None of these events appear in regional or national catalogs. Events locate in a narrow geographic band, with one-fourth exhibiting multimodal hypocentral probability peaks both near the surface and at 1–4 km depth. We relocate events with a joint hypocenter and 1D velocity model inversion, in addition to a fully nonlinear method, and then compare observations with synthetic waveforms. Together, these approaches provide strong evidence for >95% of events locating at the surface or within the 3-km-thick sedimentary sequence. We explore how anthropogenic activity and regional topographic stress may contribute to frequent surficial events. This information is critical for characterizing the background microseismicity for comparison during future geothermal operations. Ithaca’s geology of Paleozoic sediments overlying Precambrian crystalline basement is typical of many continental interiors, so these results also provide insight into intraplate microseismicity patterns.
Ground-based Doppler-lidar instrumentation provides atmospheric wind data at dramatically improved accuracies and spatial/temporal resolutions. These capabilities have provided new insights into atmospheric flow phenomena, but they also should have a strong role in NWP model improvement. Insight into the nature of model errors can be gained by studying recurrent atmospheric flows, here a regional summertime diurnal sea breeze and subsequent marine-air intrusion into the arid interior of Oregon-Washington, where these winds are an important windenergy resource. These marine intrusions were sampled by three scanning Doppler lidars in the Columbia-River Basin as part of the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2), using data from summer 2016. Lidar time-height cross sections of wind speed identified eight days when the diurnal-flow cycle, (peak wind speeds at midnight, afternoon minima) was obvious and strong. Eight-day composite time-height cross sections of lidar wind speeds are used to validate those generated by the operational NCEP-HRRR model. HRRR simulated the diurnal wind cycle, but produced errors in the timing of onset and significant errors due to a premature nighttime demise of the intrusion flow, producing low-bias errors of 6 m s-1 . Day-to-day and in the composite, whenever a marine intrusion occurred, HRRR made these same errors. The errors occurred under a range of gradient wind conditions indicating that they resulted from the misrepresentation of physical processes within a limited region around the measurement locations. Because of their generation within a limited geographical area, field-measurement programs can be designed to find and address the sources of these NWP errors.