Development and validation of a high-resolution regional wave hindcast model for U.S. West Coast wave resource characterization
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Wu, Wei-Cheng (ORCID:0000000222156351)↗
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Results for “GRID MODELING”
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Climate models show colorado drying sooner and with greater certainty east of the continental divide
Many studies have examined the aridity of the Colorado River Basin and the possible impacts of climate change which could further strain already over-allocated water resources in the region. Fewer studies have examined the multiple Colorado Rocky Mountain headwater regions specifically. This is especially true of areas East of the Continental Divide, despite water originating there being critical to cities and agriculture in Eastern Colorado and further downstream. This paper explores and compares drying trends in the Eastern and Western Colorado Rocky Mountains using single-model initial-condition large ensembles from ten global climate models. The use of multiple models allows us to identify signals that are consistent across different physics parameterizations, model grids, and other model intricacies. The large ensembles also allow us to quantify the time of emergence of these climate change signals--that is, when did (or when will) the long term change due to anthropogenic greenhouse gasses exceed the internal variability of the climate system. Consistent with previous studies, we find evidence of drying on both sides of the Continental Divide. That drying is more pronounced, occurs sooner, and is more consistent across global climate models in the East, however, highlighting the region’s importance despite generally receiving less attention than the West.
Rugg, Allyson↗
O v] λλ1213.8,1218.3 emission from extended nebulae around quasars: contamination of Ly α and a new diagnostic for AGN activity in Ly α emitters
ABSTRACT We investigate the potential for the emission lines O v] λλ1213.8,1218.3 and He ii λ1215.1 to contaminate flux measurements of Ly α λ1215.7 in the extended nebulae of quasars. We have computed a grid of photoionization models with a substantial range in the slope of the ionizing power law (−1.5 < α < −0.5), gas metallicity (0.01 < Z/Z⊙ < 3.0), gas density (1 < nH < 104 cm−3), and ionization parameter (10−5 < U < 1.0). We find the contribution from He ii λ1215.1 to be negligible, i.e. <0.1 of Ly α flux, across our entire model grid. The contribution from O v] λλ1213.8,1218.3 is generally negligible when U is low (≲10−3) and/or when the gas metallicity is low (Z/Z⊙ ≲ 0.1). However, at higher values of U and Z we find that O v] can significantly contaminate Ly α, in some circumstances accounting for more than half the total flux of the Ly α + He ii + O v] blend. We also provide means to estimate the fluxes of O v] λλ1213.8,1218.3 and He ii λ1215.1 by extrapolating from other lines. We estimate the fluxes of O v] and He ii for a sample of 107 Type 2 active galaxies at z > 2, and find evidence for significant (≥10 per cent) contamination of Ly α fluxes in the majority of cases (84 per cent). We also discuss prospects for using O v] λλ1213.8,1218.3 as a diagnostic for the presence of AGN activity in high-z Ly α emitters, and caution that the presence of significant O v] emission could impact the apparent kinematics of Ly α, potentially mimicking the presence of high-velocity gas outflows.
Humphrey, A.↗
The Application of a Genetic Algorithm to the Optimization of a Mesoscale Model for Emergency Response
Besides solving the equations of momentum, heat, and moisture transport on the model grid, mesoscale weather models must account for subgrid-scale processes that affect the resolved model variables. These are simulated with model parameterizations, which often rely on values preset by the user. Such “free” model parameters, along with others set to initialize the model, are often poorly constrained, requiring that a user select each from a range of plausible values. Finding the values to optimize any forecasting tool can be accomplished with a search algorithm, and one such process—the genetic algorithm (GA)—has become especially popular. As applied to modeling, GAs represent a Darwinian process: an ensemble of simulations is run with a different set of parameter values for each member, and the members subsequently judged to be most accurate are selected as “parents” who pass their parameters onto a new generation. At the U.S. Department of Energy’s Savannah River Site in South Carolina, we are applying a GA to the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) mesoscale weather model, which supplies input to a model to simulate the dispersion of an airborne contaminant as part of the site’s emergency response preparations. An ensemble of forecasts is run each day, weather data are used to “score” the individual members of the ensemble, and the parameters from the best members are used for the next day’s forecasts. As meteorological conditions change, the parameters change as well, maintaining a model configuration that is best adapted to atmospheric conditions. Significance Statement We wanted to develop a forecasting system by which a weather model is run over the Savannah River Site each day and repeatedly adjusted according to how well it performed the previous day. To run the model, a series of values (parameters) must be set to control how the model will calculate winds, temperatures, and other desired variables. Each day the model was run several times using different combinations of these parameters and later compared with observed meteorological conditions. Parameters that produced the most accurate forecasts were preferentially reused to create the forecasts for the next day. The process was tested for the summer of 2020 and exhibited lower errors than forecasts produced by the model using default values of the parameters.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Review of WEC-Sim development and applications
WEC-Sim (Wave Energy Converter Simulator) is an open-source code for simulating wave energy converters, which has been actively developed and applied to simulate a wide variety of device archetypes, and has become a popular tool since its release. This paper reviewed the development efforts and the usage of WEC-Sim. The publications considered in this study have been broken down into six topic areas, namely feature development, experimental validation, device modeling, control modeling, PTO and grid modeling, and novel applications, which even includes some non-wave energy applications. This review paper has also attempted to recognize the contributions of the broader WEC-Sim development effort, meaning not only the internal WEC-Sim development team but also the external efforts from the academia researchers and technology developers around the world. The growing trend of external applications of WEC-Sim has demonstrated the broader acceptance of the open-source code, and how WEC-Sim has been used in a certain topic area also highlights the potential future development needs.
16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
Three-Dimensional Effects in Modeling of Dual-Mode Scramjets
A numerical investigation of an experimental dual-mode scramjet configuration is performed. Both experimental and numerical results indicate significant upstream interaction for this case. Several computational cases are examined: these include the use of jet-to-jet symmetry and entire half-duct modeling. Grid convergence, turbulence modeling, and wall temperature effects are studied in terms of wall pressure predictions and flow-field characteristics. Wall pressure comparisons between CFD and experiment show fair agreement for the jet-to-jet case. However, further computations of the entire half-duct show the development of a large sidewall separation zone extending much further upstream than the separation zone at the duct centerline. This sidewall separation is the dominant feature in the CFD-generated flowfield but is not evident in the experimental data, resulting in a unfavorable comparison between CFD and experimental data. Current work aimed at resolving this issue and at further understanding asymmetric flow-structures in dual-mode flow-fields is discussed.
Rodriguez, C. G.↗
Evaluation of IEC 62443 Standard Gaps for Electric Grid Substation Model Use Case
This report presents an evaluation of the IEC 62443 standards in the context of electric grid substations, as part of a collaborative effort among Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), Idaho National Laboratory (INL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The primary objective is to assess the applicability of these standards to enhance cybersecurity measures for industrial automation and control systems (IACS) within the energy sector. The evaluation identifies strengths, such as the scalability of security levels and the structured lifecycle guidance provided by IEC 62443. However, it also highlights significant gaps, including limited integration of physical security, insufficient guidance for legacy systems, and challenges in addressing emerging threats like supply chain vulnerabilities. Recommendations for refining the standards are proposed, including the need for tailored guidance for securing legacy systems, integrating physical security with cybersecurity frameworks, and enhancing interoperability across multi-vendor environments. By addressing these gaps, the IEC 62443 standards can be strengthened to ensure comprehensive cybersecurity for electric grid substations, thereby supporting the resilience and reliability of critical energy infrastructure.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Assimilation of Satellite Altimeter Data With a Four Dimensional Model of the Japan Sea
A data assimilation is carried out to detect the variability of the Japan Sea circulation in the range from a few days to several years and from eddy to basin scale. The model applied in this study is the same 1/6 degree GFDL MOM1 as Kim and Yoon (1999) but is driven by ECMWF daily wind stress, heat and fresh water fluxes. The satellite altimeter data of TOPEX/POSEIDON, ERS-1 (phase C and G) and -2 are assimilated by an approximate Kalman filter (Fukumori and M.Rizzoli, 1995). The approximation is made by seeking an asymptotic steady error covariance matrix (Fukumori et al., 1993) and by introducing a coarser grid model for the innovation (data-model misfit). The coarse grid model is defined on 1/2 degree horizontal resolution and consists of the barotropic stream function, first baroclinic displacement and velocity amplitudes. The assimilated estimates explain about 6cm sea level variability of the data (approximately 12cm in the southern part), which is much larger than the previous reduced-gravity model and TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data assimilation (Hirose et al., 1999). The impacts of the T/P and ERS data on the filtered estimates are comparable. The result also shows high correlation to subsurface water temperatures measured by CTD. Many of the mesoscale eddies/disturbances travel east-northeastward with the advection speed of 1-3cm/s though most of them generated in the western region can not pass over the Oki Spur. The quasi-biennial variability found by Hirose and Ostrovskii (1999) did not show clear propagation pattern. The shallow Oki Spur may work as a "western boundary" to this signal. This is more plausible estimation than by the R-G model which has no bottom topography.
Hirose, Naoki↗
Quantitative modeling of ICRF antennas with integrated time domain RF sheath and plasma physics
Significant efforts have been made to quantitatively benchmark the sheath sub-grid model used in our time-domain simulations of plasma-immersed antenna near fields, which includes highly detailed three-dimensional geometry, the presence of the slow wave, and the non-linear evolution of the sheath potential. We present both our quantitative benchmarking strategy, and results for the ITER antenna configuration, including detailed maps of electric field, and sheath potential along the entire antenna structure. Our method is based upon a time-domain linear plasma model, using the finite-difference electromagnetic Vorpal/Vsim software. This model has been augmented with a non-linear rf-sheath sub-grid model, which provides a self-consistent boundary condition for plasma current where it exists in proximity to metallic surfaces. Very early, this algorithm was designed and demonstrated to work on very complicated three-dimensional geometry, derived from CAD or other complex description of actual hardware, including ITER antennas. Initial work with the simulation model has also provided a confirmation of the existence of propagating slow waves in the low density edge region, which can significantly impact the strength of the rf-sheath potential, which is thought to contribute to impurity generation. Our sheath algorithm is based upon per-point lumped-circuit parameters for which we have estimates and general understanding, but which allow for some tuning and fitting. We are now engaged in a careful benchmarking of the algorithm against known analytic models and existing computational techniques to insure that the predictions of rf-sheath voltage are quantitatively consistent and believable, especially where slow waves share in the field with the fast wave. Currently in progress, an addition to the plasma force response accounting for the sheath potential, should enable the modeling of sheath plasma waves, a predicted additional root to the dispersion, existing at the plasma-metal interface. Our model is presently restricted to plasma in the vicinity of metallic (highly conducting) surfaces, however we report on a new effort to include thin and thick dielectric (poorly conducting) surfaces, which are of interest to both fusion devices and to industrial plasmas, where dielectric, or dielectric-coated vessels and geometry are heavily used.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
Grid Erosion Modeling of the NEXT Ion Thruster Optics
Results from several different computational studies of the NEXT ion thruster optics are presented. A study of the effect of beam voltage on accelerator grid aperture wall erosion shows a non-monotonic, complex behavior. Comparison to experimental performance data indicates improvements in simulation of the accelerator grid current, as well as very good agreement with other quantities. Also examined is the effect of ion optics choice on the thruster life, showing that TAG optics provide better margin against electron backstreaming than NSTAR optics. The model is used to predict the change in performance with increasing accelerator grid voltage, showing that although the current collected on the accel grid downstream face increases, the erosion rate decreases. A study is presented for varying doubly-ionized Xenon current fraction. The results show that performance data is not extremely sensitive to the current fraction.
Ernhoff, Jerold W.↗
Life Prediction Model for Grid-Connected Li-ion Battery Energy Storage System
Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries are being deployed on the electrical grid for a variety of purposes, such as to smooth fluctuations in solar renewable power generation. The lifetime of these batteries will vary depending on their thermal environment and how they are charged and discharged. To optimal utilization of a battery over its lifetime requires characterization of its performance degradation under different storage and cycling conditions. Aging tests were conducted on commercial graphite/nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) Li-ion cells. A general lifetime prognostic model framework is applied to model changes in capacity and resistance as the battery degrades. Across 9 aging test conditions from 0oC to 55oC, the model predicts capacity fade with 1.4% RMS error and resistance growth with 15% RMS error. The model, recast in state variable form with 8 states representing separate fade mechanisms, is used to extrapolate lifetime for example applications of the energy storage system integrated with renewable photovoltaic (PV) power generation.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Computational analysis of forebody tangential slot blowing on the high alpha research vehicle
A numerical analysis of forebody tangential slot blowing as a means of generating side force and yawing moment is conducted using an aircraft geometry. The Reynolds-averaged, thin-layer, Navier-Stokes equations are solved using a partially flux-split, approximately-factored algorithm. An algebraic turbulence model is used to determine the turbulent eddy viscosity values. Solutions are obtained using both patched and overset grid systems. In the patched grid model, and actuator plane is used to introduce jet variables into the flow field. The overset grid model is used to model the physical slot geometry and facilitate modeling of the full aircraft configuration. A slot optimization study indicates that a short slot located close to the nose of the aircraft provided the most side force and yawing moment per unit blowing coefficient. Comparison of computed surface pressure with that obtained in full-scale wind tunnel tests produce good agreement, indicating the numerical method and grid system used in the study are valid. Full aircraft computations resolve the changes in vortex burst point due to blowing. A time-accurate full-aircraft solution shows the effect of blowing on the changes in the frequency of the aerodynamic loads over the vertical tails. A study of the effects of freestream Mach number and various jet parameters indicates blowing remains effective through the transonic Mach range. An investigation of the force onset time lag associated with forebody blowing shows the lag to be minimal. The knowledge obtained in this study may be applied to the design of a forebody tangential slot blowing system for use on flight aircraft.
Gee, Ken↗
A first large-scale flood inundation forecasting model
At present continental to global scale flood forecasting focusses on predicting at a point discharge, with little attention to the detail and accuracy of local scale inundation predictions. Yet, inundation is actually the variable of interest and all flood impacts are inherently local in nature. This paper proposes a first large scale flood inundation ensemble forecasting model that uses best available data and modeling approaches in data scarce areas and at continental scales. The model was built for the Lower Zambezi River in southeast Africa to demonstrate current flood inundation forecasting capabilities in large data-scarce regions. The inundation model domain has a surface area of approximately 170k km2. ECMWF meteorological data were used to force the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) macro-scale hydrological model which simulated and routed daily flows to the input boundary locations of the 2-D hydrodynamic model. Efficient hydrodynamic modeling over large areas still requires model grid resolutions that are typically larger than the width of many river channels that play a key a role in flood wave propagation. We therefore employed a novel sub-grid channel scheme to describe the river network in detail whilst at the same time representing the floodplain at an appropriate and efficient scale. The modeling system was first calibrated using water levels on the main channel from the ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite) laser altimeter and then applied to predict the February 2007 Mozambique floods. Model evaluation showed that simulated flood edge cells were within a distance of about 1 km (one model resolution) compared to an observed flood edge of the event. Our study highlights that physically plausible parameter values and satisfactory performance can be achieved at spatial scales ranging from tens to several hundreds of thousands of km2 and at model grid resolutions up to several km2. However, initial model test runs in forecast mode revealed that it is crucial to account for basin-wide hydrological response time when assessing lead time performances notwithstanding structural limitations in the hydrological model and possibly large inaccuracies in precipitation data.
hydrodynamic, hydrology, forecast, flood inundatio↗
Sub-grid scale model classification and blending through deep learning
In this article we detail the use of machine learning for spatio-temporally dynamic turbulence model classification and hybridization for large eddy simulations (LES) of turbulence. Here, our predictive framework is devised around the determination of local conditional probabilities for turbulence models that have varying underlying hypotheses. As a first deployment of this learning, we classify a point on our computational grid as that which requires the functional hypothesis, the structural hypothesis or no modelling at all. This ensures that the appropriate model is specified from a priori knowledge and an efficient balance of model characteristics is obtained in a particular flow computation. In addition, we also utilize the conditional-probability predictions of the same machine learning to blend turbulence models for another hybrid closure. Our test case for the demonstration of this concept is given by Kraichnan turbulence, which exhibits a strong interplay of enstrophy and energy cascades in the wavenumber domain. Our results indicate that the proposed methods lead to robust and stable closure and may potentially be used to combine the strengths of various models for complex flow phenomena prediction.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Drop size distribution broadening mechanisms in a bin microphysics Eulerian model
In this study, processes that broaden drop size distributions (DSDs) in Eulerian models with two-moment bin microphysics are analyzed. Numerous tests are performed to isolate the effects of different physical mechanisms that broaden DSDs in two- and three-dimensional Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations of an idealized ice-free cumulus cloud. Additionally, sensitivity of these effects to modifying horizontal and vertical model grid spacings is also examined. As expected, collision-coalescence is a key process broadening the modeled DSDs. In-cloud droplet activation also contributes substantially to DSD broadening, whereas evaporation has only a minor effect and sedimentation has little effect. Cloud dilution (mixing of cloud-free and cloudy air) also broadens the DSDs considerably, whether or not it is accompanied by evaporation. This mechanism involves the reduction of droplet concentration from dilution along the cloud’s lateral edges, leading to locally high supersaturation and enhanced drop growth when this air is subsequently lifted in the updraft. DSD broadening ensues when the DSDs are mixed with those from the cloud core. Decreasing the horizontal and vertical model grid spacings from 100 m to 30 m has limited impact on the DSDs. However, when these physical broadening mechanisms (in-cloud activation, collision-coalescence, dilution, etc.) are turned off, there is a reduction of DSD width by up to ~20-50% when the vertical grid spacing is decreased from 100 m to 30 m, consistent with effects of artificial broadening from vertical numerical diffusion. Nonetheless, this artificial numerical broadening appears to be relatively unimportant overall for DSD broadening when physically based broadening mechanisms in the model are included for this cumulus case.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Time Delay of Wide Area Damping Control in Urban Power Grid: Model-Based Analysis and Data-Driven Compensation
Due to the rapid development of economies, large urban cities consume an increasing amount of energy and have a higher requirement for power quality. Voltage source converter based high voltage direct current (VSC-HVDC) is a promising device to transmit clean power from remote regions to urban power systems, while also providing wide area damping control (WADC) for frequency stabilization. However, the time-delay naturally existing in the VSC-HVDC system may degrade the performance of WADC and even result in instability. To address this issue, this paper develops a time-delay correction control strategy for VSC-HVDC damping control in urban power grids. First, a small signal model of WADC is built to analyze the negative impacts of time delay. Then, a data-driven approach is proposed to compensate for the inherent time delay in VSC-HVDC damping control. The extensive training data will be generated under various disturbances. After offline training, the long short-term memory network (LSTM) can be implemented online to predict the actual frequency deviation based on real-time measurements. Finally, the proposed method is validated through MATLAB-Simulink in a two-area four-machine system. The results indicate that the data-driven compensation has a strong generalization ability for random delay time constants and can improve the performance of WADC significantly.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Snow and Ice Products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer
Snow and sea ice products, derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument, flown on the Terra and Aqua satellites, are or will be available through the National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC). The algorithms that produce the products are automated, thus providing a consistent global data set that is suitable for climate studies. The suite of MODIS snow products begins with a 500-m resolution, 2330-km swath snow-cover map that is then projected onto a sinusoidal grid to produce daily and 8-day composite tile products. The sequence proceeds to daily and 8-day composite climate-modeling grid (CMG) products at 0.05 resolution. A daily snow albedo product will be available in early 2003 as a beta test product. The sequence of sea ice products begins with a swath product at 1-km resolution that provides sea ice extent and ice-surface temperature (IST). The sea ice swath products are then mapped onto the Lambert azimuthal equal area or EASE-Grid projection to create a daily and 8-day composite sea ice tile product, also at 1 -km resolution. Climate-Modeling Grid (CMG) sea ice products in the EASE-Grid projection at 4-km resolution are planned for early 2003.
Hall, Dorothy K.↗
Bondi-Hoyle accretion in an isothermal magnetized plasma
In regions of star formation, protostars and newborn stars will accrete mass from their natal clouds. These clouds are threaded by magnetic fields with a strength characterized by the plasma β—the ratio of thermal and magnetic pressures. Observations show that molecular clouds have β ≲ 1, so magnetic fields have the potential to play a significant role in the accretion process. We have carried out a numerical study of the effect of large-scale magnetic fields on the rate of accretion onto a uniformly moving point particle from a uniform, non-self-gravitating, isothermal gas. We consider gas moving with sonic Mach numbers of up to M≈45; magnetic fields that are either parallel, perpendicular, or oriented 45° to the flow; and β as low as 0.01. Our simulations utilize adaptive mesh refinement in order to obtain high spatial resolution where it is needed; this also allows the boundaries to be far from the accreting object to avoid unphysical effects arising from boundary conditions. Additionally, we show that our results are independent of our exact prescription for accreting mass in the sink particle. We give simple expressions for the steady-state accretion rate as a function of β and M for the parallel and perpendicular orientations. Using typical molecular cloud values of M∼5 and β ∼ 0.04 from the literature, our fits suggest that a 0.4 M {sub ☉} star accretes ∼4 × 10{sup –9} M {sub ☉} yr{sup –1}, almost a factor of two less than accretion rates predicted by hydrodynamic models. This disparity can grow to orders of magnitude for stronger fields and lower Mach numbers. We also discuss the applicability of these accretion rates versus accretion rates expected from gravitational collapse, and under what conditions a steady state is possible. The reduction in the accretion rate in a magnetized medium leads to an increase in the time required to form stars in competitive accretion models, making such models less efficient than predicted by Bondi-Hoyle rates. Our results should find application in numerical codes, enabling accurate sub-grid models of sink particles accreting from magnetized media.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗