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Coupling of the Electricity and Transportation Sectors - Part II: Risk Assessment
This comprehensive report explores the intricate interplay through “sector coupling” between the Transportation Sector, Energy Sector, and the critical infrastructure challenges faced by the United States. Aligned with the ambitious federal goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the report analyzes the present vulnerabilities in the fossil fuel supply chain, highlighting instances where the dependence on this industry has been susceptible to local and global disruptions. With a focus on risk assessment, this report establishes a framework to compare the fossil fuel-based transportation sector with the burgeoning electrified sector, considering the evolving technologies in electric vehicles (EVs) and the nascent charging infrastructure. This study delves into the historical reliability of fossil fuel-based transportation and identifies opportunities for strengthening sector coupling between transportation and the electric sector. Assessments of the gasoline-diesel supply chain provide insights into both opportunities and threats, offering a roadmap for creating a more reliable and resilient electrified transportation system. We modeled sectoral coupling scenarios for the current internal combustion engine (ICE)-based and future EV-dominant landscapes, leveraging qualitative sector attributes to identify relative strengths and weaknesses in Part 1 of the report. In this report (Part 2) we continue to understand the role of the electricity sector on transportation and develop a semi-quantitative methodology is employed to evaluate and compare the risks associated with the fossil fueled and electric transportation sector during emergency scenarios, drawing from real-world events like hurricanes and geopolitical disruptions. Different operational scenarios for the fossil fuel and electrified sectors have been developed to understand the risks associated with them. This report concludes with recommendations for the architectural designs of electric charging infrastructure, underlining the need for informed decisions in the transition towards a sustainable and resilient transportation future.
An Overview of Policies Influencing Air Pollution from the Electricity Sector in South Asia
The electricity sector is a substantial source of air pollution and associated health problems in South Asia and elsewhere. Fossil-fueled power plants emit a wide variety of harmful pollutants. Those with the greatest health impacts are particulate matter and ozone. Once released into the atmosphere, there is no practical way to remove air pollutants, which means that policies designed to improve air quality have to limit the pollutants before release. However, tackling such pollution is challenging because developing economies also need to provide electricity as a basic necessity for their citizens and as an engine of economic growth. This report provides examples of policies impacting air pollution from the fossil-fuel electricity sector in the South Asian countries of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Some of this information was difficult to locate, so this is not a comprehensive study, but rather an overview or "scan" of the sector that includes examples of (1) policies that directly regulate air quality by limiting emissions from specific point sources (by restricting operating hours, for instance), and (2) indirect policies that incentivize or disincentivize polluting activities, such as policies to encourage fuel switching, for example. The report shows (1) the great variation among the policy instruments used in each country, (2) that many countries, especially those that have a mismatch between seasonal demand and resource availability, could improve energy security and reduce air pollution through increased cross-border electricity trade, and (3) some countries have contradictory policies (promoting both coal and renewables, for instance).
Source Decomposition of Eddy-Covariance CO 2 Flux Measurements for Evaluating a High-Resolution Urban CO 2 Emissions Inventory
We present the comparison of source-partitioned CO2 flux measurements with a high-resolution urban CO 2 emissions inventory (Hestia). Tower-based measurements of CO and 14 C are used to partition net CO 2 flux measurements into fossil and biogenic components. A flux footprint model is used to quantify spatial variation in flux measurements. We compare the daily cycle and spatial structure of Hestia and eddy-covariance derived fossil fuel CO 2 emissions on a seasonal basis. Hestia inventory emissions exceed the eddy-covariance measured emissions by 0.36 µ mol m −2 s −1 (3.2%) in the cold season and 0.62 µ mol m −2 s −1 (9.1%) in the warm season. The daily cycle of fluxes in both products matches closely, with correlations in the hourly mean fluxes of 0.86 (cold season) and 0.93 (warm season). The spatially averaged fluxes also agree in each season and a persistent spatial pattern in the differences during both seasons that may suggest a bias related to residential heating emissions. In addition, in the cold season, the magnitudes of average daytime biological uptake and nighttime respiration at this flux site are approximately 15% and 27% of the mean fossil fuel CO 2 emissions over the same time period, contradicting common assumptions of no significant biological CO 2 exchange in northern cities during winter. This work demonstrates the effectiveness of using trace gas ratios to adapt eddy-covariance flux measurements in urban environments for disaggregating anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and urban ecosystem fluxes at high spatial and temporal resolution.
Nannochloropsis oceanica IMET1 and its bacterial symbionts for carbon capture, utilization, and storage: biomass and calcium carbonate production under high pH and high alkalinity
ABSTRACT To combat the increasing levels of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) released from the combustion of fossil fuels, microalgae have emerged as a promising strategy for biological carbon capture, utilization, and storage. This study used a marine microalgal strain, Nannochloropsis oceanica IMET1, which thrives in high CO 2 concentrations. A high-pH, high-alkalinity culture was designed for CO 2 capture through algal biomass production as well as permanent sequestration through calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ) precipitation. This was accomplished by timed pH elevation and the addition of sodium bicarbonate to cultures of N. oceanica grown at lab scale (1 L) and pilot scale (500 L) with 10% and 5% CO 2 , respectively. Our data showed that 0.02 M NaHCO 3 promoted algal growth and that sparging cultures with ambient air after 12 days raised pH and created favorable CaCO 3 formation conditions. At the 1 L scale, we reached 1.52 g L −1 biomass after 12 days and an extra 9.3% CO 2 was captured in the form of CaCO 3 precipitates. At the 500 L pilot scale, an extra 60% CO 2 was captured (Day 40) with a maximum CO 2 capture rate of 63.2 g m −2 day −1 (Day 35). Bacterial communities associated with the microalgae were dominated by two novel Patescibacteria. Functional analysis revealed that genes for several plant growth-promotion traits (PGPTs) were enriched within this group. The microalgal-bacterial coculture system offers advantages for enhanced carbon mitigation through biomass production and simultaneous precipitation of recalcitrant CaCO 3 for long-term CO 2 storage. IMPORTANCE Capturing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) released from fossil fuel combustion is of the utmost importance as the impacts of climate change continue to worsen. Microalgae can remove CO 2 through their natural photosynthetic pathways and are additionally able to convert CO 2 into a stable, recalcitrant form as calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ). We demonstrate that microalgae-based carbon capture systems can be greatly improved with high pH and high alkalinity by providing optimal conditions for carbonate precipitation. Our results with the microalga, Nannochloropsis oceanica strain IMET1, show an extra 9.3% CO 2 captured as CaCO 3 at the 1 L scale and an extra 60% CO 2 captured at the 500 L (pilot) scale. Our optimized system provides a novel approach to capture CO 2 through two mechanisms: (i) as organic carbon within microalgal biomass and (ii) as inorganic carbon stored permanently in the form of CaCO 3.
Sustainable Aviation Fuel from High-Strength Wastewater via Membrane-Assisted Volatile Fatty Acid Production: Experimental Evaluation, Techno-economic, and Life-Cycle Analyses
To reduce emissions from combustion of fossil fuels, sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) have the potential to decarbonize the aviation sector. Redirecting wastes from conventional waste management practices and using them as cost-effective feedstocks for low-carbon fuels can reduce emissions from both waste disposal and fuel combustion. One approach is to upgrade wet wastes to SAF precursors, such as volatile fatty acids (VFAs). Here, in this study, novel membrane-assisted arrested methanogenesis was developed to convert high-strength wastewater to VFAs. Based on experimental results of VFA production, techno-economic and life-cycle analyses were conducted to estimate the potential economic and environmental benefits of SAF production from high-strength wastewater via VFAs. By evaluating three proposed scenarios for VFA production, a minimum production cost of VFA is achieved at $\$$0.60/kg VFA at a wastewater flow rate of 1100 MT/d. For the corresponding VFA-derived SAF, the estimated minimum fuel selling price is $\$$4.64/gasoline gallon equivalent. The life-cycle analysis shows that up to a 71% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions can be achieved relative to its fossil-counterpart along with lower water and fossil-fuel consumption.
Radically Engineered Modular Air Separation System with Tailored Oxygen Sorbents
The commercial energy sector relies heavily on fossil fuel conversion, and in the process releases a significant amount of CO 2 . A promising technology to utilize fossil fuels with relatively affordable CO 2 capture is gasification. However, it requires a pure oxygen stream. The current state of the art method to produce oxygen is cryogenic air separation, which supercools air to a liquid, and then using distillation columns to separate the components. While this method has been thoroughly studied, it only has a 25% efficiency from a second law standpoint and therefore requires a significant amount of energy (and associated emissions) for oxygen production. This, then, lowers the incentive for carbon capture within a plant, so alternative methods need to be investigated. One potential method, chemical looping air separation (CLAS), is a promising method to replace state of the art oxygen generation technologies. CLAS utilizes a cyclic redox scheme with an oxygen sorbent to create pure oxygen streams. This approach typically utilizes a dual reactor scheme where the oxygen deficient sorbent enters the first reactor and is subjected to high oxygen partial pressures to re-oxidize the sorbent. Then the sorbent is sent to the reducing reactor, where it is subjected to low oxygen partial pressure (steam or vacuum) to releases oxygen. The overarching objective of this project was to discover the principles for rational design and optimization of oxygen sorbents and process design to ensure the process is a viable replacement for cryogenic air separation, especially in the context of modular gasification systems. This was done through development, characterization, testing, and analyses of (a) high temperature mixed composite oxides; (b) low temperature doped perovskite oxides (A1 x A2 1-x B1 y B2 1-y O 3 ); (c) scale up synthesis and testing of the optimized sorbent particles; (d) process design and analyses of the CLAS system in the context of modular gasification applications.
Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Coal-Biomass Co-Firing Power Plants with Carbon Capture and Storage
The United States has set a target to achieve the net-zero economy by 2050. Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Sequestration (BECCS) is one of the promising negative-emission routes in the mitigation portfolio to help meet this goal. Coal-biomass co-firing with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a key BECCS technology to realize the carbon mitigation at fossil-fuel power plants. The mitigation potential of co-firing option is affected by numerous critical factors, such as biomass properties, co-firing level, and carbon capture rate. The objectives of the study are to characterize and estimate the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and performance of coal-biomass co-firing power plants with CCS, determine the breakeven co-firing level at power plants necessary to achieve net-zero life cycle emissions, and quantify the variabilities and uncertainties in life cycle emissions. The scope of the life cycle assessment includes the fuel supply, combustion-based power generation, and CO2 transport and storage. A fuel-based life cycle module is developed and embedded in the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM), a fossil-fuel power plant modeling tool. This study then applies the enhanced IECM to conduct the process-based life cycle assessment for an array of biomass co-firing scenarios. Deterministic analysis indicates that reaching net-zero life cycle emissions in a biomass co-firing plant without CCS deployment is challenging. Combining biomass co-firing and CCS deployment can significantly lower the overall life cycle emissions of power plants. Net-zero life cycle emissions can be achieved with a 20 wt.% co-firing level and 90% CCS when the Powder River Basin coal is co-fired with energy crops or forestry residues. However, the breakeven co-firing level for net-zero emissions depend on the selected fuel properties. Fuel supply and plant operation are the critical stages influencing the life cycle emissions of power plants with 90% CCS. Deployment of deep CCS beyond 90% CO2 capture can remarkably reduce operational emissions and the breakeven co-firing level. With 99% CCS, the breakeven co-firing rate can be reduced to 12% on average. These findings highlight the trade-offs between technical performance and environmental impact of biomass co-firing at coal-fired power plants and emphasize the role of deep CCS in achieving a net-zero emissions future.
Updated Natural Gas Pathways in R&D GREET 2024 Rev.1
Natural gas (NG) is a relatively low-cost fossil fuel with vast infrastructure in the United States (U.S.) making it easier to transport and store compared to other fossil fuels such as coal and petroleum. In 2023, the U.S. consumed 32.5 trillion cubic feet or 33.6 Quad Btu of NG, accounting for 36% of the nation’s total primary energy consumption. NG is commonly used for electricity generation, industrial applications, commercial and residential activities and transportation purposes, as shown in Figure 1. This widespread reliance on NG underscores the need to assess its full environmental impact, requiring careful analysis of the entire supply chain from production (i.e., recovery, gathering and boosting [G&B], and processing of raw gas) to final delivery to end users (e.g., via pipelines).
Hydrogen turbine power conversion system assessment
A three part technical study was conducted whereby parametric technical and economic feasibility data were developed on several power conversion systems suitable for the generation of central station electric power through the combustion of hydrogen and the use of the resulting heat energy in turbogenerator equipment. The study assessed potential applications of hydrogen-fueled power conversion systems and identified the three most promising candidates: (1) Ericsson Cycle, (2) gas turbine, and (3) direct steam injection system for fossil fuel as well as nuclear powerplants. A technical and economic evaluation was performed on the three systems from which the direct injection system (fossil fuel only) was selected for a preliminary conceptual design of an integrated hydrogen-fired power conversion system.
Strategies for Achieving the DOE Hydrogen Shot Goal: Thermal Conversion Approaches
In July 2021 the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) launched the first of a series of Department-wide Energy Earthshot goals designed to accelerate breakthroughs of more abundant, affordable, and reliable clean energy solutions within the decade. The Hydrogen Shot goal seeks to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen to $\$$1 per 1 kilogram in 1 decade ("1 1 1"). Today, thermal conversion of fossil fuels represents the predominant, lowest cost method of hydrogen production. In 2020 approximately 75 percent of global, dedicated hydrogen production was produced via fossil fuels using thermal conversion approaches such as steam reforming and gasification. However, carbon management techniques such as CO 2 capture and sequestration (CCS) and pyrolysis are not widely represented in the current fossil-based hydrogen production fleet. Lowering the cost of clean hydrogen production from commercial and advanced thermal conversion-based technologies is critical for successfully achieving the Hydrogen Shot goal. This report presents the findings from an initial screening analysis of several scenarios that explore cost drivers related to clean hydrogen production. The screening encompasses commercially available and developing thermal conversion technology alternatives as well as factors exogenous to the plant such as feedstock/byproduct pricing, CO 2 pipeline and storage infrastructure costs, and scale to assess potential pathways towards meeting the Hydrogen Shot goal. Additionally, this report presents initial Research and Development (R&D) strategies to advance thermal conversion technology towards meeting the Hydrogen Shot goal.
Hydrogen Shot Technology Assessment: Thermal Conversion Approaches
In July 2021 the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) launched the first of a series of Department-wide Energy Earthshot™ goals designed to accelerate breakthroughs of more abundant, affordable, and reliable clean energy solutions within the decade. The Hydrogen Shot goal seeks to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen to $\$$1 per 1 kilogram in 1 decade ("1 1 1"). Today, thermal conversion of fossil fuels represents the predominant, lowest cost method of hydrogen production. In 2020 approximately 75 percent of global, dedicated hydrogen production was produced via fossil fuels using thermal conversion approaches such as steam reforming and gasification. However, carbon management techniques such as CO 2 capture and sequestration (CCS) and pyrolysis are not widely represented in the current fossil-based hydrogen production fleet. Lowering the cost of clean hydrogen production from commercial and advanced thermal conversion-based technologies is critical for successfully achieving the Hydrogen Shot goal. This report presents the findings from an initial screening analysis of several scenarios that explore cost drivers related to clean hydrogen production. The screening encompasses commercially available and developing thermal conversion technology alternatives as well as factors exogenous to the plant such as feedstock/byproduct pricing, CO 2 pipeline and storage infrastructure costs, and scale to assess potential pathways towards meeting the Hydrogen Shot goal. Additionally, this report presents initial Research and Development (R&D) strategies to advance thermal conversion technology towards meeting the Hydrogen Shot™ goal.
Policy implications of net-zero emissions: A multi-model analysis of United States emissions and energy system impacts
Many countries, subnational jurisdictions, and companies are setting net-zero emissions goals; however, questions remain about strategies to reach these targets, policy measures, technology gaps, and economic impacts. Here, we investigate the potential policy implications of reaching economy-wide net-zero CO 2 emissions across the United States by 2050 using results from a multi-model comparison with 14 energy-economic models. Model results suggest that achieving net-zero CO 2 targets depends on policies that accelerate deployment of zero- and low-emitting technologies that have seen rapid cost reductions in recent years (including wind, solar, battery storage, and electric vehicles) as well as relatively nascent options (including carbon capture and storage, advanced biofuels, low-carbon hydrogen, advanced nuclear, and long-duration energy storage). While net-zero policies are likely to lower fossil fuel consumption, including considerable coal and petroleum reductions, achieving net-zero emissions does not necessarily mean phasing out all fossil fuels. Model results indicate that the Inflation Reduction Act’s energy and climate provisions amplify near-term decarbonization but that net-zero policies have larger impacts on long-run outcomes. Stringent climate policy can have large fiscal impacts on tax revenue and government spending—revenues from carbon pricing and subsidies for carbon removal range from 0.1 % to 3.7 % of GDP in 2050 across models. Each dollar per metric ton carbon price leads to a 0.06 % to 0.31 % reduction in economy-wide CO 2 emissions relative to a reference scenario with current policies. Spending on energy across the economy decreases relative to today for many models under reference and net-zero policies, especially as a share of GDP, due primarily to end-use electrification and energy efficiency.
Net-Zero Carbon Microgrids
The microgrid concept has been effective in creating aggregations of distributed energy resources—generation, storage and loads—for resiliency, in the form of energy security. The success of microgrids in bringing energy security to a wide range of customers—from individual residences to commercial and industrial installations to military bases—has been exemplified during power disruptions and extended outages due to extreme weather events, cybersecurity attacks, and equipment failures. Now microgrids have an opportunity to meet the challenges of climate change and contribute to a carbon-free power delivery system. The transition to net-zero starts within microgrids themselves. In fact, today’s microgrids are largely dominated by generators using fossil fuels, natural gas and diesel, with high greenhouse gas emissions. In short, the transition to net-zero means replacing fossil fueled generators with renewable generation in microgrids. This transition is extended by including new dispatchable generation technologies that are 100% carbon-free and that offer additional advantage of a more-dependable and sustainable source of energy and power. Basically, the decarbonization of microgrids requires three elements: 1) maximizing generation from renewable energy resources, 2) management of storage and flexible loads to balance the variability and intermittency of renewable energy resources, and 3) introducing new clean power sources, including hydrogen-based generation and small modular reactors. This report affirms a need for specific focus by governmental agencies at national, regional, and local levels to establish technology, policy, and investment in this area. The intention of the Net-Zero Microgrid (NZM) Program is to inform these constituencies with cross-cutting research and tools for the reduction of GHG in microgrids – to net-zero in the near term eventually to zero in the longer term. The NZM Program is committed to achieving decarbonization for resiliency and for providing clean energy at the local or distribution level, from remote communities to underserved communities, and large industrial and military facilities. The NZM Planning and Design Platform is a core tool to be developed as an early deliverable of the NZM Program because only a fully integrated microgrid-design approach will ensure maximum carbon reduction in energy production.
Dynamic optimization with flexible heat integration of a solar parabolic trough collector plant with thermal energy storage used for industrial process heat
There is an increasing need to reduce fossil fuel consumption used for industrial process heat to slow the effects of climate change. Using solar thermal heat is a viable way to replace fossil fuel use, but solar industrial process heat plants have limited implementation due to large upfront costs and inefficiencies from the inherent variability from solar energy. Having more flexible and optimized control over these plants can enable them to be more efficient. Here in this work, a solar industrial process heat plant with thermal energy storage that can flexibly collect and deliver heat to two industrial processes (flexible heat integration) is dynamically modeled with control setpoints found by a dynamic optimization method. The optimized case can increase the solar efficiency of the plant by 7.5% on average relative to a base case. The results show that it is best to collect heat at lower temperatures for all but ideal solar conditions, only medium to high quality heat should be stored in large quantities, and exchanging heat with a lower temperature heat sink is generally more efficient. The optimized case is able to reduce the levelized cost of heat of the plant to $31.83/MWh th compared to a base case value of $34.10/MWh th . The optimized case can reduce emissions by 22.2% compared to a plant which uses only natural gas. This work shows that dynamic optimization with flexible heat integration can be a cost-effective way to increase efficiency so that more of these types of plants can be implemented.
CO 2 and Renewable Electricity into Chemicals: Formic Acid Production from Coal Flue Gas
Formic acid (FA) is an industrial chemical. It is used as a preservative for silage, as a digestive aid for animals, as a fluid for fracking, as a pharmaceutical intermediate and in leather tanning. The global formic acid market is valued at 777.4 million USD in 2020 and is expected to reach 851.8 million USD by the end of 2026. A new major formic acid application is the use of formic acid as a key feedstock for the bioprocessing industry. It has the potential to grow tremendously if we can lower the cost of formic acid production compared with the current fossil-fuel one. Recently, Dioxide Materials has developed a technology that can directly convert CO 2 to pure formic acid with a three-compartment CO 2 electrolyzer. However, the electrolyzer performance needs further improvement for the technology to be commercially viable. The major objective of this project is to develop the electrolyzer technology to enable formic acid as a feedstock for the bioprocessing industry to be economically manufactured from flue gas from a coal fired pilot plant. In particular, the project is to understand how to run the electrolyzer for the conversion of CO 2 into formic acid using flue gas from a coal fired power plant as a source of CO 2 . The work will include characterizing how the performance of the electrolyzer changes with low CO 2 concentration and impurities, developing new cell designs that can still operate with feedstocks with low CO 2 concentrations, testing simulated flue gas in the electrolyzer system and developing filters to remove any impurities that arise.
Adoption of Biofuels for Marine Shipping
Biomass-derived fuels can undoubtedly play an essential role in a future of marine fuel that is more renewable and offers potential synergistic benefits when blended with petroleum fuels. Biomass-derived marine fuel would reduce sulfur content, as well as improve overall emission profiles and ultimately environmental sustainability (including decarbonization) for marine transport. For example, biofuel derived from biomass such as forest residues is expected to deliver possibly up to 90% of life cycle (or well-to-propeller) greenhouse gas reduction versus fossil equivalents, and virtually eliminate SOx emissions - potentially without any requirement for engine modifications. For the benefits of biofuels to be realized and to be impactful, a significant fraction of marine fossil fuel will need to be displaced with biofuel. The direct replacement of marine fossil fuel with a biofuel necessitates that the production volume of biofuel will be high enough to meet the demand. Furthermore, the potential of biofuel adoption also depends on the future biofuel price. Hence, the long-term price and availability of marine biofuel are two critical factors for establishing the feasibility of marine biofuel adoption for operating vessels. This study will shed light on the prospect of biofuel to be adopted for the maritime shipping sector.
A Streamlined Strategy for Biohydrogen Production with Halanaerobium hydrogeniformans , an Alkaliphilic Bacterium
Biofuels are anticipated to enable a shift from fossil fuels for renewable transportation and manufacturing fuels, with biohydrogen considered attractive since it could offer the largest reduction of global carbon budgets. Currently, lignocellulosic biohydrogen production remains inefficient with pretreatments that are heavily fossil fuel-dependent. However, bacteria using alkali-treated biomass could streamline biofuel production while reducing costs and fossil fuel needs. An alkaliphilic bacterium, Halanaerobium hydrogeniformans, is described that is capable of biohydrogen production at levels rivaling neutrophilic strains, but at pH 11 and hypersaline conditions. H. hydrogeniformans ferments a variety of 5- and 6-carbon sugars derived from hemicellulose and cellulose including cellobiose, and forms the end products hydrogen, acetate, and formate. Further, it can also produce biohydrogen from switchgrass and straw pretreated at temperatures far lower than any previously reported and in solutions compatible with growth. Hence, this bacterium can potentially increase the efficiency and efficacy of biohydrogen production from renewable biomass resources.