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NASA NTRS1986

A statistical trend analysis of ozonesonde data

A detailed statistical analysis of monthly averages of ozonesond readings is performed to assess trends in ozone in the troposphere and the lower to midstratosphere. Regression time series models, which include seasonal and trend factors, are estimated for 13 stations located mainly in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. At each station, trend estimates are calculated for 14 'fractional' Umkehr layers covering the altitude range from 0 to 33 km. For the 1970-1982 period, the main findings indicate an overall negative trend in ozonesonde data in the lower stratosphere (15-21 km) of about -0.5 percent per year, and some evidence of a positive trend in the troposphere (0-5 km) of about 0.8 percent per year. An in-depth sensitivity study of the trend estimates is performed with respect to various correction procedures used to normalize ozonesonde readings to Dobson total ozone measurements. The main results indicate that the negative trend findings in the 15- to 21-km altitude region are robust to the normalization procedures considered.

Tiao, G. C.↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program: Cosmological Analysis and Systematic Uncertainties

We present the full Hubble diagram of photometrically classified Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) from the Dark Energy Survey supernova program (DES-SN). DES-SN discovered more than 20,000 SN candidates and obtained spectroscopic redshifts of 7000 host galaxies. Based on the light-curve quality, we select 1635 photometrically identified SNe Ia with spectroscopic redshift 0.10 < z < 1.13, which is the largest sample of supernovae from any single survey and increases the number of known z > 0.5 supernovae by a factor of 5. In a companion paper, we present cosmological results of the DES-SN sample combined with 194 spectroscopically classified SNe Ia at low redshift as an anchor for cosmological fits. Here we present extensive modeling of this combined sample and validate the entire analysis pipeline used to derive distances. We show that the statistical and systematic uncertainties on cosmological parameters are ${\sigma }_{{{\rm{\Omega }}}_{M},\mathrm{stat}+\mathrm{sys}}^{{\rm{\Lambda }}\mathrm{CDM}}=$ 0.017 in a flat ΛCDM model, and $({\sigma }_{{{\rm{\Omega }}}_{M}},{\sigma }_{w}{)}_{\mathrm{stat}+\mathrm{sys}}^{w\mathrm{CDM}}$ = (0.082, 0.152) in a flat wCDM model. Combining the DES SN data with the highly complementary cosmic microwave background measurements by Planck Collaboration reduces by a factor of 4 uncertainties on cosmological parameters. In all cases, statistical uncertainties dominate over systematics. We show that uncertainties due to photometric classification make up less than 10% of the total systematic uncertainty budget. This result sets the stage for the next generation of SN cosmology surveys such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Emulation of the calculations of final r -process abundance patterns with a neural network

This work explores the construction of a fast emulator for the calculation of the final pattern of nucleosynthesis in the rapid neutron capture process (the r-process). An emulator is built using a feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN). We train the ANN with nuclear data and relative abundance patterns. We take as input the β-decay half-lives and the one-neutron separation energy of the nuclei in the rare-earth region. The output is the final isotopic abundance pattern. In this work, we focus on the nuclear data and abundance patterns in the rare-earth region to reduce the dimension of the input and output space. We show that the ANN can capture the effect of the changes in the nuclear physics inputs on the final r-process abundance pattern in the adopted astrophysical conditions. We employ the deep ensemble method to quantify the prediction uncertainty of the neural network emulator. The emulator achieves a speed-up by a factor of about 20 000 in obtaining a final abundance pattern in the rare-earth region. The emulator may be utilized in statistical analyses such as uncertainty quantification, inverse problems, and sensitivity analysis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1993

Research in image management and access

Presently, the problem of over-all library system design has been compounded by the accretion of both function and structure to a basic framework of requirements. While more device power has led to increased functionality, opportunities for reducing system complexity at the user interface level have not always been pursued with equal zeal. The purpose of this book is therefore to set forth and examine these opportunities, within the general framework of human factors research in man-machine interfaces. Human factors may be viewed as a series of trade-off decisions among four polarized objectives: machine resources and user specifications; functionality and user requirements. In the past, a limiting factor was the availability of systems. However, in the last two years, over one hundred libraries supported by many different software configurations have been added to the Internet. This document includes a statistical analysis of human responses to five Internet library systems by key features, development of the ideal online catalog system, and ideal online catalog systems for libraries and information centers.

Vondran, Raymond F.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Flow field topology of transient mixing driven by buoyancy

Transient mixing driven by buoyancy occurs through the birth of a symmetric Rayleigh-Taylor morphology (RTM) structure for large length scales. Beyond its critical bifurcation the RTM structure exhibits self-similarity and occurs on smaller and smaller length scales. The dynamics of the RTM structure, its nonlinear growth and internal collision, show that its genesis occurs from an explosive bifurcation which leads to the overlap of resonance regions in phase space. This event shows the coexistence of regular and chaotic regions in phase space which is corroborated with the existence of horseshoe maps. A measure of local chaos given by the topological entropy indicates that as the system evolves there is growth of uncertainty. Breakdown of the dissipative RTM structure occurs during the transition from explosive to catastrophic bifurcation; this event gives rise to annihilation of the separatrices which drives overlap of resonance regions. The global bifurcation of explosive and catastrophic events in phase space for the large length scale of the RTM structure serves as a template for which mixing occurs on smaller and smaller length scales. Copyright 2004 American Institute of Physics.

Nonlinear Dynamics↗

NASA NTRS1976

Monte Carlo investigation of thrust imbalance of solid rocket motor pairs

The Monte Carlo method of statistical analysis is used to investigate the theoretical thrust imbalance of pairs of solid rocket motors (SRMs) firing in parallel. Sets of the significant variables are selected using a random sampling technique and the imbalance calculated for a large number of motor pairs using a simplified, but comprehensive, model of the internal ballistics. The treatment of burning surface geometry allows for the variations in the ovality and alignment of the motor case and mandrel as well as those arising from differences in the basic size dimensions and propellant properties. The analysis is used to predict the thrust-time characteristics of 130 randomly selected pairs of Titan IIIC SRMs. A statistical comparison of the results with test data for 20 pairs shows the theory underpredicts the standard deviation in maximum thrust imbalance by 20% with variability in burning times matched within 2%. The range in thrust imbalance of Space Shuttle type SRM pairs is also estimated using applicable tolerances and variabilities and a correction factor based on the Titan IIIC analysis.

Sforzini, R. H.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Environmental Conditions Affecting Global Mesoscale Convective System Occurrence

Abstract The ERA5 environments of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), tracked from satellite observations, are assessed over a 20-yr period. The use of a large set of MCS tracks allows us to robustly test the sensitivity of the results to factors such as region, latitude, and diurnal cycle. We aim to provide novel information on environments of observed MCSs for assessments of global atmospheric models and to improve their ability to simulate MCSs. Statistical analysis of all tracked MCSs is performed in two complementary ways. First, we investigate the environments when an MCS has occurred at different spatial scales before and after MCS formation. Several environmental variables are found to show marked changes before MCS initiation, particularly over land. The vertically integrated moisture flux convergence shows a robust signal across different regions and when considering MCS initiation diurnal cycle. We also found spatial scale dependence of the environments between 200 and 500 km, providing new evidence of a natural length scale for use with MCS parameterization. In the second analysis, the likelihood of MCS occurrence for given environmental conditions is evaluated, by considering all environments and determining the probability of being in an MCS core or shield region. These are compared to analogous non-MCS environments, allowing discrimination between conditions suitable for MCS and non-MCS occurrence. Three environmental variables are found to be useful predictors of MCS occurrence: total column water vapor, midlevel relative humidity, and total column moisture flux convergence. Such relations could be used as trigger conditions for the parameterization of MCSs, thereby strengthening the dependence of the MCS scheme on the environment. Significance Statement Large storm systems called mesoscale convective systems form across Earth. These are collections of thunderstorms, with associated high-level clouds that produce substantial, lighter rainfall and modulate Earth’s energy balance. They produce hazardous weather conditions, such as floods and high winds, and are responsible for a high percentage of rainfall in many regions globally. We investigate the environmental conditions under which they form, so that we can understand the spatial extent of the environment which is important for their formation, and also where and when the effects of these storms might be felt. The novel information generated here should help improve the representation of these storms in weather and climate models, improving the prediction of rainfall, thunderclouds, and high-level clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SpaceX Dragon 1 Post Flight MMOD Inspection Campaign

Introduction The SpaceX Dragon 1 spacecraft performed 20 resupply missions to the International Space Station (ISS) between 2012 and 2020. After each mission, a team from the NASA John-son Space Center Hypervelocity Impact Technology Group inspected each Dragon 1 capsule for hypervelocity impact damage features. Data from these inspections are collected into a database that includes impact feature dimensions as well as the location on the vehicle. Additional details on the type and size of particle that produced the damage site are provided when sampling data and definitive spectroscopic analysis results are available. Observation data can be compared with impact estimates from risk assessment codes as a check on the micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) environment predictions. Scope A general description of the areas of the vehicle that were inspected are provided as well as mission details such as exposure duration and launch dates. The paper documents the general inspection procedure for collection of data and the post inspection data analysis process. It also provides details of the observation data collected as well as the results of analysis of intact samples collected for spectroscopic analysis to discern the source of the impacting particle. A comparison between observed impacts and the expected number of damage features calculated by Bumper 3 with the latest MMOD environments are also presented. Findings Statistics on the >300 impact features documented in the database will provide insight into the depth to diameter ratios and other relationships. The quality of the comparison between the observations and code predictions are dependent on several factors. The paper provides de-tails of each of these variables. (1) Damage equations (2) Impact condition assumptions a. Projectile density b. Impact speed c. Impact angle (3) Analysis results a. pre-flight vs. on-orbit damage b. MMOD vs. non-MMOD Conclusions and Recommendations The ISS visiting vehicle impact database is an ongoing project. SpaceX provides crew rotations as well as resupply and cargo return with the Dragon 2 spacecraft. Sierra Space is manifested for resupply and cargo return services starting in 2023. Boeing is expected to provide crew rotations as well. All of these spacecraft will provide additional opportunities for post flight MMOD inspections of space exposed hardware. Acknowledgements Over the course of the inspection campaign various personnel at the SpaceX Texas Test Site in McGregor and at the SpaceX headquarters in Hawthorne CA provided valuable support to this activity.

James L Hyde↗

DOE OSTI2024

Rapid Characterization and Statistical Analysis of High-Volume Field-Harvested Photovoltaic Connectors

Photovoltaic (PV) installations heavily depend on connectors for efficient module and string interconnections without requiring skilled labor. Yet this seemingly innocuous component of PV systems is a leading cause of module failures, multiple high-profile fires, and lawsuits in the PV industry. This work aims to answer critical questions regarding why connectors fail and the contributing factors to their failure. The study involves collecting and analyzing more than 17,000 field-harvested connectors from various solar installations across the United States. The vast dataset, which includes connector metadata, visual inspections, and resistance measurements, provides unprecedented insight into the state of health of PV connectors across the US, including the geographic locations, connector types, and installation practices most prone to failures. The work presented here describes a novel rapid characterization method for processing large numbers of connectors and is supported by parallel forensic analysis to discern the root causes of failures as well as a levelized cost of lifetime model to determine the economic ramifications of connector failure. Ultimately, the findings may inform PV developers about the best practices to extend connector longevity and lead to more resilient and reliable PV systems.

connectors↗

NASA NTRS1971

Thermal scale modeling

Complex system study data indicate that factors associated with multilayer insulation pose major problem in scale modeling, that numerical analysis aids correction for known compromises of scaling criteria, and that probable errors in scale modeling experiments fall within range predicted by statistical analysis.

Mac Gregor, R. K.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Decision theory in structural reliability

Some fundamentals of reliability analysis as applicable to aerospace structures are reviewed, and the concept of a test option is introduced. A decision methodology, based on statistical decision theory, is developed for determining the most cost-effective design factor and method of testing for a given structural assembly. The method is applied to several Saturn V and Space Shuttle structural assemblies as examples. It is observed that the cost and weight features of the design have a significant effect on the optimum decision.

Thomas, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Identification of Human-Induced Changes in Atmospheric Moisture Content

Data from the satellite-based Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) show that the total atmospheric moisture content over oceans has increased by 0.41 kg/sq m per decade since 1988. Results from current climate models indicate that water vapor increases of this magnitude cannot be explained by climate noise alone. In a formal detection and attribution analysis using the pooled results from 22 different climate models, the simulated "fingerprint" pattern of anthropogenically caused changes in water vapor is identifiable with high statistical confidence in the SSM/I data. Experiments in which forcing factors are varied individually suggest that this fingerprint "match" is primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases and not to solar forcing or recovery from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo. Our findings provide preliminary evidence of an emerging anthropogenic signal in the moisture content of earth's atmosphere.

Santer, B.D.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Spacesuit Glove-Induced Hand Trauma and Analysis of Potentially Related Risk Variables

Injuries to the hands are common among astronauts who train for extravehicular activity (EVA). When the gloves are pressurized, they restrict movement and create pressure points during tasks, sometimes resulting in pain, muscle fatigue, abrasions, and occasionally more severe injuries such as onycholysis. Glove injuries, both anecdotal and recorded, have been reported during EVA training and flight persistently through NASA's history regardless of mission or glove model. Theories as to causation such as glove-hand fit are common but often lacking in supporting evidence. Previous statistical analysis has evaluated onycholysis in the context of crew anthropometry only (Opperman et al 2010). The purpose of this study was to analyze all injuries (as documented in the medical records) and available risk factor variables with the goal to determine engineering and operational controls that may reduce hand injuries due to the EVA glove in the future. A literature review and data mining study were conducted between 2012 and 2014. This study included 179 US NASA crew who trained or completed an EVA between 1981 and 2010 (crossing both Shuttle and ISS eras) and wore either the 4000 Series or Phase VI glove during Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) spacesuit EVA training and flight. All injuries recorded in medical records were analyzed in their association to candidate risk factor variables. Those risk factor variables included demographic characteristics, hand anthropometry, glove fit characteristics, and training/EVA characteristics. Utilizing literature, medical records and anecdotal causation comments recorded in crewmember injury data, investigators were able to identify several risk factors associated with increased risk of glove related injuries. Prime among them were smaller hand anthropometry, duration of individual suited exposures, and improper glove-hand fit as calculated by the difference in the anthropometry middle finger length compared to the baseline EVA glove middle finger length.

McFarland, Shane M.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Analyzing and Predicting Effort Associated with Finding and Fixing Software Faults

Context: Software developers spend a significant amount of time fixing faults. However, not many papers have addressed the actual effort needed to fix software faults. Objective: The objective of this paper is twofold: (1) analysis of the effort needed to fix software faults and how it was affected by several factors and (2) prediction of the level of fix implementation effort based on the information provided in software change requests. Method: The work is based on data related to 1200 failures, extracted from the change tracking system of a large NASA mission. The analysis includes descriptive and inferential statistics. Predictions are made using three supervised machine learning algorithms and three sampling techniques aimed at addressing the imbalanced data problem. Results: Our results show that (1) 83% of the total fix implementation effort was associated with only 20% of failures. (2) Both safety critical failures and post-release failures required three times more effort to fix compared to non-critical and pre-release counterparts, respectively. (3) Failures with fixes spread across multiple components or across multiple types of software artifacts required more effort. The spread across artifacts was more costly than spread across components. (4) Surprisingly, some types of faults associated with later life-cycle activities did not require significant effort. (5) The level of fix implementation effort was predicted with 73% overall accuracy using the original, imbalanced data. Using oversampling techniques improved the overall accuracy up to 77%. More importantly, oversampling significantly improved the prediction of the high level effort, from 31% to around 85%. Conclusions: This paper shows the importance of tying software failures to changes made to fix all associated faults, in one or more software components and/or in one or more software artifacts, and the benefit of studying how the spread of faults and other factors affect the fix implementation effort.

software fix implementation effort↗

NASA NTRS1998

Heart rate dynamics in patients with stable angina pectoris and utility of fractal and complexity measures

Dynamic analysis techniques may uncover abnormalities in heart rate (HR) behavior that are not easily detectable with conventional statistical measures. However, the applicability of these new methods for detecting possible abnormalities in HR behavior in various cardiovascular disorders is not well established. Conventional measures of HR variability were compared with short-term (< or = 11 beats, alpha1) and long-term (> 11 beats, alpha2) fractal correlation properties and with approximate entropy of RR interval data in 38 patients with stable angina pectoris without previous myocardial infarction or cardiac medication at the time of the study and 38 age-matched healthy controls. The short- and long-term fractal scaling exponents (alpha1, alpha2) were significantly higher in the coronary patients than in the healthy controls (1.34 +/- 0.15 vs 1.11 +/- 0.12 [p <0.001] and 1.10 +/- 0.08 vs 1.04 +/- 0.06 [p <0.01], respectively), and they also had lower approximate entropy (p <0.05), standard deviation of all RR intervals (p <0.01), and high-frequency spectral component of HR variability (p <0.05). The short-term fractal scaling exponent performed better than other heart rate variability parameters in differentiating patients with coronary artery disease from healthy subjects, but it was not related to the clinical or angiographic severity of coronary artery disease or any single nonspectral or spectral measure of HR variability in this retrospective study. Patients with stable angina pectoris have altered fractal properties and reduced complexity in their RR interval dynamics relative to age-matched healthy subjects. Dynamic analysis may complement traditional analyses in detecting altered HR behavior in patients with stable angina pectoris.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗

NASA NTRS1980

Influence of soils on Landsat spectral signatures of corn

Landsat data have been investigated extensively to determine crop types and acreage. However, confounding site factors have been found to reduce accuracy. Soils data in a small, contiguous area in southeast South Dakota were used to stratify Landsat data. A June 5 and July 29 CCT were used in a statistical analysis of corn training data. Significant soil parameters causing differences in study area soils were slope and parent material. Implication of the results is that, in this region, stratification of CCT data along parent material boundaries would improve corn classification accuracy. Research expanding on the interaction of soils and crops is both in progress and scheduled for additional studies in east central South Dakota.

Dalsted, K. J.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Creating high-precision reference gas standards of 85Kr for groundwater age-dating

Absolute gas counting (AGC) was applied to two gas blends of 85Kr in argon-methane (P10) counting gas to establish a high-precision specific activity (Bq/cm3) reference value for characterizing 85Kr detection efficiency for groundwater age dating measurements. The AGC or length-compensated technique has been utilized by the metrology community for decades and is an accepted method for developing radioactive gas standards. The AGC capability at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) uses a set of nine unequal-length proportional counters with precisely-measured internal volumes, and a gas loading system with high-precision pressure and temperature sensors. A series of AGC measurements were collected at multiple pressures to determine the inverse pressure relationship (1/P) for 85Kr and define a wall-effect correction that accounts for events decaying into the detector wall and not depositing sufficient energy in the gas to be detected. In addition to the wall-effect, two additional corrections were evaluated and are discussed in detail. Specifically, the threshold effect which accounts for events deposited below the analysis threshold and a detection efficiency as a function of detector volume effect that was observed during analysis. A robust uncertainty model was developed using the Guide to the expression of Uncertainty in Measurements (GUM) approach. The combination of carefully scrutinized correction factors, precise measurements of pressure, temperature and detector volume, and robust counting statistics resulted in the determination of high-precision specific activity values with 0.50% or less total combined uncertainty for two Kr-in-P10 reference gas standards (KP10) that will enable new groundwater age-dating measurements at PNNL.

Kr-85↗

DOE OSTI2025

PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative Final Technical Report (FTR)

Improved analysis and reporting of photovoltaic (PV) field performance increases the certainty of owners and financiers that systems will perform as expected. Advanced module technologies (e.g., PERC, HJT, and bifacial) introduce new degradation mechanisms and performance characteristics. This project will leverage data from the ever-increasing PV fleet to develop models and understanding of the field performance of existing and new technologies. Please see our list of public reports at https://www.nrel.gov/pv/fleet-performance-data-initiative.html. Objective 1: Support the global PV industry with scalable, robust data analysis tools that reduce the uncertainty of PV system performance and loss calculation. Objective 2: Reduce perceived risk arising from degradation rate, soiling loss, and system availability by publishing detailed statistics on U.S. fleet performance. Objective 3: Highlight factors leading to system underperformance including module type, climate, mounting configuration, etc. Objective 4: Enable continued high system performance in modern PV systems, as turnover and advances in technology bring new suppliers and high-efficiency modules into the market.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗