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NASA NTRS2015

Calibration of Predictor Models Using Multiple Validation Experiments

This paper presents a framework for calibrating computational models using data from several and possibly dissimilar validation experiments. The offset between model predictions and observations, which might be caused by measurement noise, model-form uncertainty, and numerical error, drives the process by which uncertainty in the models parameters is characterized. The resulting description of uncertainty along with the computational model constitute a predictor model. Two types of predictor models are studied: Interval Predictor Models (IPMs) and Random Predictor Models (RPMs). IPMs use sets to characterize uncertainty, whereas RPMs use random vectors. The propagation of a set through a model makes the response an interval valued function of the state, whereas the propagation of a random vector yields a random process. Optimization-based strategies for calculating both types of predictor models are proposed. Whereas the formulations used to calculate IPMs target solutions leading to the interval value function of minimal spread containing all observations, those for RPMs seek to maximize the models' ability to reproduce the distribution of observations. Regarding RPMs, we choose a structure for the random vector (i.e., the assignment of probability to points in the parameter space) solely dependent on the prediction error. As such, the probabilistic description of uncertainty is not a subjective assignment of belief, nor is it expected to asymptotically converge to a fixed value, but instead it casts the model's ability to reproduce the experimental data. This framework enables evaluating the spread and distribution of the predicted response of target applications depending on the same parameters beyond the validation domain.

Crespo, Luis G.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Interpretation of Vehicle Tumbling Predictions from 6-DOF Entry and Descent Simulation

Blunt body entry vehicles are subject to dynamic instability during terminal descent. This often manifests as limit cycle oscillations in total angle of attack, but can diverge into tumbling behavior under certain conditions. For the Mars Sample Return Earth Entry Vehicle (MSR EEV), there is a constraint on the orientation of the sample tubes so backward impact is impermissible. Past missions have chosen to deploy parachutes to preclude tumbling, but active events after release of MSR EEV have been ground-ruled out with the intent to maximize system reliability. Prevention of tumbling during subsonic descent is a design driver for MSR EEV. During preliminary design of the MSR EEV, six degree-of-freedom numerical simulations indicated an unacceptably high probability of tumbling for a 60degree sphere-cone forebody geometry, which necessitated a design change. Decreasing the forebody angle was expected to improve dynamic stability, but would also adversely impact mass, aeroheating, and manufacturing risk. Hence there was strong motivation to understand the physical drivers for the onset of tumbling, and to determine: (a) whether the causes of tumbling are representative of physically realizable vehicle entry configurations and (b) what changes can be made to existing design and analysis practices to ensure a stable vehicle.

Entry Vehicle↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Effect of Temperature on the Preservation of Volatile-Rich Lunar Samples

Introduction. The Moon’s south pole is a high-priority target for human exploration and scientific study. This interest is, in part, due to the presence of Permanently Shadowed Regions (PSRs), which could contain high concentrations of unique volatiles at cryogenic temperatures [1]. Returned samples from PSRs may include a unique combination of rocks, regolith, and volatile species, providing unprecedented insights into the history of the Solar System and the potential for resource utilization on the Moon. However, because PSR samples are cryogenic up-on collection, lunar polar sample return will eventually require cold stowage for the journey from the Moon to Earth. Without cold stowage, PSR sample return will likely result in phase changes and chemical reactions within the volatile component of the sample, which would negatively impact the resulting scientific studies of those samples. This abstract summarizes the initial results from an ongoing characterization of analog PSR samples at a range of temperatures, with the goal of defining the temperatures needed for a flight cold stowage freezer. Background. Based on remote sensing observations of the Moon [2], south polar PSRs range in temperature from ~120K for small and/or shallow PSRs to ~20K at the most extreme locations in large, deep PSRs. A range of volatiles have been hypothesized to exist at the surface or subsurface of the lunar poles [3-5 and others]. This hypothesis was verified when the LCROSS mission impacted the <50-K PSR in the crater Cabeus, detecting a range of volatiles from water to low condensation temperature species such as H2S and methane [6]. Species such as H2S and ammonia (also detected by LCROSS) are also highly reactive, and increase the likelihood of chemical reactions at elevated (non-cryogenic) temperatures. At the Johnson Space Center’s Planetary Exploration and Astromaterials Research Laboratory (JSC-PEARL), we have developed a volatile-bearing lunar simulant that incorporates several of the species detected by LCROSS [Table 1] mixed cryogenically with the USGS Lunar Highlands Type (LHT) regolith simulant. The new volatile-regolith simulant will be used to assess the degree of sample alteration at room temperature, -20°C, -80°C, and -196°C (liquid nitro-gen), over a two-week period. Room temperature samples represent those likely to be returned during initial missions without cold stowage, -20°C provides an analog to Apollo cold curated samples, -80°C is the temperature of multiple flight payload freezers (e.g., MELFI), and -196°C is analogous to lunar PSRs. Two weeks is an approximation of the time between sample collection and Earth return for initial Artemis missions. Over this period of time, sample head-space gases will be analyzed using a Universal Gas Analyzer (UGA, a type of mass spectrometer) coupled with a Baratron pressure sensor. After testing, the regolith component of the simulant will be purged of volatiles and preserved for future electron beam and/or FTIR analysis. Experimental Procedure. Volatile-regolith simulants will be produced as an initial homogenous batch; this batch will then be distributed into aliquots (gas chromatography/GC vials or cryo vials), ensuring that each sample has the same starting composition and conditions [Fig. 1]. In addition to the “full” simulant shown in Table 1, less complex simulant compositions will be used as baseline and control samples [Table 2]. Aliquots will be produced in triplicate for each simulant composition, storage temperature, and date of sampling. Headspace gases in all Day 0 samples will be analyzed by the UGA immediately. Cold storage samples for future analytical days will be placed in freezers appropriate to their target temperatures (-20°C, -80°C, -196°C). For ambient-temperature samples, regolith and regolith-water samples will be stored in a fume hood, while the full simulant will be stored in a sealed Parr vessel for safety; no other simulants (RWCM/ RWCM+) will be stored at ambient temperature for this test. Samples will be analyzed by UGA in this manner on each Analysis Day outlined in Table 2. Analytical Data. The UGA measures the partial pressures in a single sample aliquot over a set mass range of 0-105 atomic mass units (AMU) [Figure 2]; this set range was selected to slightly exceed the mass of the highest-mass expected reaction product (H2SO4). The Baratron complements the UGA by measuring the total pressure in the headspace of a sample vial. Coupled together, the quantitative abundances of gases will be monitored throughout the test. UGA analyses of the triplicate samples for each storage temperature, day, and simulant composition will be averaged, and standard deviations for each will be calculated. The compositions of starting species (shown in Table 1) will be characterized as a function of time, and the presence of any new compounds (reaction products) will be monitored as well. Total pressures will be recorded for each sample analysis, and any samples that show signs of leakage (e.g., a significant reduction in pressure or simulant volatiles) will be discarded. Anticipated Results. Testing is planned to begin in January 2022. The resulting data will allow compositional and phase changes in the volatile component of the simulants to be determined. Both the reduction in initial compounds and the addition of reaction products are expected to be observed. In addition, the relative efficacy of the different temperatures at pre-serving the initial composition of the simulants will be quantified. Finally, the regolith component of each sample will be argon-purged and stored in a controlled environment for future laboratory analysis. Compositional and morphological changes in the regolith are expected for samples above 0°C. This test will be repeated three times over the course of 2022. Understanding the effect of temperature on both the volatile and regolith components of analog lunar materials will allow requirements for a cold stowage freezer to be developed. The implementation of cold stowage for lunar polar missions will maximize the preservation of returned samples, enabling ground-breaking lunar and Solar System volatiles science for decades to come.

J L Mitchell↗

NASA NTRS1994

Design of Ternary Correlation Filters to Reduce Probability of Error

The problem of designing ternary phase and amplitude filters (TPAF's) that reduce the probability of image misclassification for a two-class image set is studied. The Fisher ratio is used as a measure of the correct classification rate, and an attempt is made to maximize this quantity in the filter designs. Given the nonanalytical nature of the design problem, a simulated annealing optimization technique is employed. Computer simulation results are presented for several cases including single in-class and out-of-class image sets and multiple image sets corresponding to the design of synthetic discriminant function filters. Significant improvements are found in expected rates of correct classification in comparison to binary phase-only filters and other TPAF designs. Approaches to accelerate the filter design process are also discussed.

Downie, John D.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Application of Statistically Derived CPAS Parachute Parameters

The Capsule Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) Analysis Team is responsible for determining parachute inflation parameters and dispersions that are ultimately used in verifying system requirements. A model memo is internally released semi-annually documenting parachute inflation and other key parameters reconstructed from flight test data. Dispersion probability distributions published in previous versions of the model memo were uniform because insufficient data were available for determination of statistical based distributions. Uniform distributions do not accurately represent the expected distributions since extreme parameter values are just as likely to occur as the nominal value. CPAS has taken incremental steps to move away from uniform distributions. Model Memo version 9 (MMv9) made the first use of non-uniform dispersions, but only for the reefing cutter timing, for which a large number of sample was available. In order to maximize the utility of the available flight test data, clusters of parachutes were reconstructed individually starting with Model Memo version 10. This allowed for statistical assessment for steady-state drag area (CDS) and parachute inflation parameters such as the canopy fill distance (n), profile shape exponent (expopen), over-inflation factor (C(sub k)), and ramp-down time (t(sub k)) distributions. Built-in MATLAB distributions were applied to the histograms, and parameters such as scale (sigma) and location (mu) were output. Engineering judgment was used to determine the "best fit" distribution based on the test data. Results include normal, log normal, and uniform (where available data remains insufficient) fits of nominal and failure (loss of parachute and skipped stage) cases for all CPAS parachutes. This paper discusses the uniform methodology that was previously used, the process and result of the statistical assessment, how the dispersions were incorporated into Monte Carlo analyses, and the application of the distributions in trajectory benchmark testing assessments with parachute inflation parameters, drag area, and reefing cutter timing used by CPAS.

Romero, Leah M.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Signal-to-noise ratio comparison of encoding methods for hyperpolarized noble gas MRI

Some non-Fourier encoding methods such as wavelet and direct encoding use spatially localized bases. The spatial localization feature of these methods enables optimized encoding for improved spatial and temporal resolution during dynamically adaptive MR imaging. These spatially localized bases, however, have inherently reduced image signal-to-noise ratio compared with Fourier or Hadamad encoding for proton imaging. Hyperpolarized noble gases, on the other hand, have quite different MR properties compared to proton, primarily the nonrenewability of the signal. It could be expected, therefore, that the characteristics of image SNR with respect to encoding method will also be very different from hyperpolarized noble gas MRI compared to proton MRI. In this article, hyperpolarized noble gas image SNRs of different encoding methods are compared theoretically using a matrix description of the encoding process. It is shown that image SNR for hyperpolarized noble gas imaging is maximized for any orthonormal encoding method. Methods are then proposed for designing RF pulses to achieve normalized encoding profiles using Fourier, Hadamard, wavelet, and direct encoding methods for hyperpolarized noble gases. Theoretical results are confirmed with hyperpolarized noble gas MRI experiments. Copyright 2001 Academic Press.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS1985

Nonstoichiometric defects in GaAs and the EL2 bandwagon

In the present paper, an attempt is made to formulate a common framework for a discussion of nonstoichiometric defects, especially EL2 and dislocations. An outline is provided of the most important settled and unsettled issues, taking into account not only fundamental interests, but also urgent needs in advancing IC technology. Attention is given to stoichiometry-controlled compensation, the expected role of melt stoichiometry in electrical conductivity for the basic atomic disorders, defect equilibria-dislocations and EL2, and current issues pertaining to the identification of EL2. It is concluded that nonstoichiometric defects play a critical role in the electronic properties of GaAs and its electronic applications. Very significant progress has been recently made in learning how to adjust melt stoichiometry in order to maximize its beneficial effects and minimize its detrimental ones.

Lagowski, J.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Near-Earth Asteroid Scout

Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) are an easily accessible object in Earth's vicinity. Detections of NEAs are expected to grow in the near future, offering increasing target opportunities. As NASA continues to refine its plans to possibly explore these small worlds with human explorers, initial reconnaissance with comparatively inexpensive robotic precursors is necessary. Obtaining and analyzing relevant data about these bodies via robotic precursors before committing a crew to visit a NEA will significantly minimize crew and mission risk, as well as maximize exploration return potential. The Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) are jointly examining a mission concept, tentatively called 'NEA Scout,' utilizing a low-cost CubeSats platform in response to the current needs for affordable missions with exploration science value. The NEA Scout mission concept would be a secondary payload on the Space Launch System (SLS) Exploration Mission 1 (EM-1), the first planned flight of the SLS and the second un-crewed test flight of the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV).

McNutt, Leslie↗

NASA NTRS2014

Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) Scout

Near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) are the most easily accessible bodies in the solar system, and detections of NEAs are expected to grow exponentially in the near future, offering increasing target opportunities. As NASA continues to refine its plans to possibly explore these small worlds with human explorers, initial reconnaissance with comparatively inexpensive robotic precursors is necessary. Obtaining and analyzing relevant data about these bodies via robotic precursors before committing a crew to visit a NEA will significantly minimize crew and mission risk, as well as maximize exploration return potential. The Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) are jointly examining a potential mission concept, tentatively called 'NEAScout,' utilizing a low-cost platform such as CubeSat in response to the current needs for affordable missions with exploration science value. The NEAScout mission concept would be treated as a secondary payload on the Space Launch System (SLS) Exploration Mission 1 (EM-1), the first planned flight of the SLS and the second un-crewed test flight of the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV).

McNutt, Leslie↗

NASA NTRS2010

Mission Operations Directorate - Success Legacy of the Space Shuttle Program

In support of the Space Shuttle Program, as well as NASA's other human space flight programs, the Mission Operations Directorate (MOD) at the Johnson Space Center has become the world leader in human spaceflight operations. From the earliest programs - Mercury, Gemini, Apollo - through Skylab, Shuttle, ISS, and our Exploration initiatives, MOD and its predecessors have pioneered ops concepts and emphasized a history of mission leadership which has added value, maximized mission success, and built on continual improvement of the capabilities to become more efficient and effective. MOD's focus on building and contributing value with diverse teams has been key to their successes both with the US space industry and the broader international community. Since their beginning, MOD has consistently demonstrated their ability to evolve and respond to an ever changing environment, effectively prepare for the expected and successfully respond to the unexpected, and develop leaders, expertise, and a culture that has led to mission and Program success.

Azbell, Jim↗

NASA NTRS2011

Mission Operations Directorate - Success Legacy of the Space Shuttle Program

In support of the Space Shuttle Program, as well as NASA s other human space flight programs, the Mission Operations Directorate (MOD) at the Johnson Space Center has become the world leader in human spaceflight operations. From the earliest programs - Mercury, Gemini, Apollo - through Skylab, Shuttle, ISS, and our Exploration initiatives, MOD and its predecessors have pioneered ops concepts and emphasized a history of mission leadership which has added value, maximized mission success, and built on continual improvement of the capabilities to become more efficient and effective. MOD s focus on building and contributing value with diverse teams has been key to their successes both with the US space industry and the broader international community. Since their beginning, MOD has consistently demonstrated their ability to evolve and respond to an ever changing environment, effectively prepare for the expected and successfully respond to the unexpected, and develop leaders, expertise, and a culture that has led to mission and Program success.

Azbell, James A.↗

NASA NTRS2020

KMT-2019-BLG-0842Lb: A Cold Planet below the Uranus/Sun Mass Ratio

We report the discovery of a cold planet with a very low planet/host mass ratio of q = (4.09 ± 0.27) × 10^−5, which is similar to the ratio of Uranus/Sun (q = 4.37 × 10^−5) in the solar system. The Bayesian estimates for the host mass, planet mass, system distance, and planet–host projected separation are M(host) = 0.76 ± 0.40Mꙩ, M(planet) = 10.3 ± 5.5Mꚛ, D(L) = 3.3 ± 1.3 kpc, and a(⊥) = 3.3 ± 1.4 au, respectively. The consistency of the color and brightness expected from the estimated lens mass and distance with those of the blend suggests the possibility that the most blended light comes from the planet host, and this hypothesis can be established if high-resolution images are taken during the next (2020) bulge season. We discuss the importance of conducting optimized photometry and aggressive follow-up observations for moderately or very high magnification events to maximize the detection rate of planets with very low mass ratios.

Youn Kil Jung↗

NASA NTRS2013

A Preview of the OCO-2 Spatial and Temporal Sampling Strategy

For routine science observations, the OC0-2 spacecraft bus points the instrument bore sight either at the local nadir (85 < 85deg) or at the glint spot (85 < 81 deg) and collects -106 soundings/day over the sunlit hemisphere. center dot Nadir observations: expected to yield more spatially-homogeneous optical paths in partially cloudy regions and over topographically rough land regions center dot Glint observations are expected to yield (much) higher SNR over dark ocean or ice covered surfaces. center dot For both glint and nadir observations, the spacecraft performs a yaw maneuver to orient the long axis of the spectrometer slits perpendicular to the principle plane center dot The nominal plan is to alternate between glint and nadir observations on alternate 16-day ground repeat cycles, but this strategy may be modified to maximize coverage Target observations: For calibration and validation, the spacecraft bus can also point the instrument bore sight at a stationary surface target center dot Collects up to 12,000 soundings at observing zenith angles from +75deg GEO CL-

Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2↗

NASA NTRS2017

Unveiling the Mysteries of Mars with a Miniaturized Variable Pressure Scanning Electron Microscope (MVP-SEM)

Development of a miniaturized scanning electron microscope that will utilize the martian atmosphere to dissipate charge during analysis continues. This instrument is expected to be used on a future rover or lander to answer fundamental Mars science questions. To identify the most important questions, a survey was taken at the 47th Lunar and Planetary Science Conference (LPSC). From the gathered information initial topics were identified for a SEM on the martian surface. These priorities are identified and discussed below. Additionally, a concept of operations is provided with the goal of maximizing the science obtained with the minimum amount of communication with the instrument.

Mars↗

NASA NTRS2017

Unveiling the Mysteries of Mars with a Miniaturized Variable Pressure Scanning Electron Microscope (MVP-SEM)

Lunar & Planetary Science & Exploration↗

NASA NTRS2024

Simulation of the Charged Particle Deflection From the Sweeping Magnet Array in the Lunar Environment Heliospheric X-Ray Imager

The Lunar Environment heliospheric X-ray Imager (LEXI) is an instrument built to image x-rays from solar wind charge exchange in Earth’s magneto sheath. Monitoring the position of the magnetopause at the inner boundary of the magneto sheath allows us to understand how magnetic reconnection regulates how energy from the solar wind is deposited into Earth’s magnetosphere. LEXI is part of an upcoming lunar lander mission set to land in Mare Crisium. To repel unwanted charged particles, the instrument carries a permanent magnet array composed of 48 neodymium magnets. The array was designed to maximize charged particle deflection while minimizing stray magnetic fields, which could impact other instruments or spacecraft operation. A Runge–Kutta-based fully kinetic particle tracing model was created to evaluate the effectiveness of LEXI’s unique charged particle deflector array. Combined with the other particle suppression measures of the instrument, including physical structures and filters, the simulations show proton and electron transmission to the LEXI detector is expected to be sufficiently reduced to allow successful imaging. The flexible simulation model can be generalized to be used in examining the magnetic deflector array effectiveness of other instruments whose signals could be compromised by unwanted charged particle contamination.

Space environment effects↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Gateway Program Safety And Mission Assurance Integration - The Future Of Safe Deep Space Human Exploration

This next wave of lunar exploration will be fundamentally different than the past. The goal today is long term human presence in Earth orbit, exploration around the Moon, exploration anywhere on the Moon, and challenging exploration missions beyond the Moon. Sustainability is the key to enabling human expansion across the solar system and bringing back to Earth new knowledge and opportunities, and requires the early engagement of scientific, international, and U.S. commercial interests, innovations, and new approaches. The Gateway’s agile acquisition strategy will shape the entire system life cycle, from design and analysis through production, verification, launch, logistics and operations. This strategy will encourage new ways of doing business to accommodate new techniques, technologies and approaches; improving affordability and maximizing Gateway utility. The full range of acquisition authorities and contracting mechanisms available to NASA will be considered and appropriately tailored in response to the unique demands of each procurement activity. Gateway will provide scientific and research benefits, in addition to providing a sustainable staging location for crewed lunar surface landings and technology demonstrations that help NASA develop the knowledge and technology needed for Mars missions. These payloads are expected to provide operational and scientific benefit for the duration of their stay on Gateway, as the hardware will provide data during the transit to the Gateway and while in lunar orbit as changes in solar activity occur over time. Gateway is designed to support a variety of utilization activities during both crewed and uncrewed periods and is planned for continuous operations throughout its lifetime. These operations include demonstrating key exploration capabilities in a relevant deep space environment, conducting science beyond the influence of Earth, and providing opportunities for Gateway partners and customers for deep space exploration. Located in cislunar orbit, the Gateway capabilities can be further leveraged to enhance lunar and Mars exploration. With the Gateway and other elements of the Artemis Program, NASA is encouraging new ways of doing business to accommodate new techniques, technologies and approaches, consider affordability, and encourage innovation from U.S. industry.

Helen Vaccaro↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Gateway Program Safety and Mission Assurance IAASS Conference Keynote Presentation

Terri Castillo↗