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Lunar rover navigation concepts

With regard to the navigation of mobile lunar vehicles on the surface, candidate techniques are reviewed and progress of simulations and experiments made up to now are described. Progress that can be made through precursor investigations on Earth is considered. In the early seventies the problem was examined in a series of relevant tests made in the California desert. Meanwhile, Apollo rovers made short exploratory sorties and robotic Lunokhods traveled over modest distances on the Moon. In these early missions some of the required methods were demonstrated. The navigation problem for a lunar traverse can be viewed in three parts: to determine the starting point with enough accuracy to enable the desired mission; to determine the event sequence required to reach the site of each traverse objective; and to redetermine actual positions enroute. The navigator's first tool is a map made from overhead imagery. The Moon was almost completely photographed at moderate resolution by spacecraft launched in the sixties, but that data set provides imprecise topographic and selenodetic information. Therefore, more advanced orbital missions are now proposed as part of a resumed lunar exploration program. With the mapping coverage expected from such orbiters, it will be possible to use a combination of visual landmark navigation and external radio and optical references (Earth and Sun) to achieve accurate surface navigation almost everywhere on the near side of the Moon. On the far side and in permanently dark polar areas, there are interesting exploration targets where additional techniques will have to be used.

Burke, James D.↗

Current and Future Applications of Multispectral (RGB) Satellite Imagery for Weather Analysis and Forecasting Applications

Current and future satellite sensors provide remotely sensed quantities from a variety of wavelengths ranging from the visible to the passive microwave, from both geostationary and low ]Earth orbits. The NASA Short ]term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has a long history of providing multispectral imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard NASA fs Terra and Aqua satellites in support of NWS forecast office activities. Products from MODIS have recently been extended to include a broader suite of multispectral imagery similar to those developed by EUMETSAT, based upon the spectral channels available from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) aboard METEOSAT ]9. This broader suite includes products that discriminate between air mass types associated with synoptic ]scale features, assists in the identification of dust, and improves upon paired channel difference detection of fog and low cloud events. Future instruments will continue the availability of these products and also expand upon current capabilities. The Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) on GOES ]R will improve the spectral, spatial, and temporal resolution of our current geostationary capabilities, and the recent launch of the Suomi National Polar ]Orbiting Partnership (S ]NPP) carries instruments such as the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), the Cross ]track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), and the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS), which have unrivaled spectral and spatial resolution, as precursors to the JPSS era (i.e., the next generation of polar orbiting satellites. New applications from VIIRS extend multispectral composites available from MODIS and SEVIRI while adding new capabilities through incorporation of additional CrIS channels or information from the Near Constant Contrast or gDay ]Night Band h, which provides moonlit reflectance from clouds and detection of fires or city lights. This presentation will present a review of SPoRT, CIRA, and NRL collaborations regarding multispectral satellite imagery and recent applications within the operational forecasting environment

Molthan, Andrew L.↗

Average Versus High Surface Ozone Levels over the Continental USA: Model Bias, Background Influences, and Interannual Variability

US background ozone (O3) includes O3 produced from anthropogenic O3 precursors emitted outside of the USA, from global methane, and from any natural sources. Using a suite of sensitivity simulations in the GEOS-Chem global chemistry transport model, we estimate the influence from individual background sources versus US anthropogenic sources on total surface O3 over 10 continental US regions from 2004 to 2012. Evaluation with observations reveals model biases of +0-19ppb in seasonal mean maximum daily 8h average (MDA8) O3, highest in summer over the eastern USA. Simulated high-O3 events cluster too late in the season. We link these model biases to excessive regional O3 production (e.g., US anthropogenic, biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), and soil NOx, emissions), or coincident missing sinks. On the 10 highest observed O3 days during summer (O3_top10obs_JJA), US anthropogenic emissions enhance O3 by 5-11ppb and by less than 2ppb in the eastern versus western USA. The O3 enhancement from BVOC emissions during summer is 1-7 ppb higher on O3_top10obs_JJA days than on average days, while intercontinental pollution is up to 2ppb higher on average versus on O3_top10obs_JJA days. During the summers of 2004-2012, monthly regional mean US background O3 MDA8 levels vary by up to 15ppb from year to year. Observed and simulated summertime total surface O3 levels on O3_top10obs_JJA days decline by 3ppb (averaged over all regions) from 2004-2006 to 2010-2012, reflecting rising US background (+2ppb) and declining US anthropogenic O3 emissions (6ppb) in the model. The model attributes interannual variability in US background O3 on O3_top10obs days to natural sources, not international pollution transport. We find that a 3-year averaging period is not long enough to eliminate interannual variability in background O3 on the highest observed O3 days.

Guo, Jean J.↗

How Well Satellite Remote Sensing Can Inform Surface Level Ozone Production Sensitivity to Precursor Trace Gas Emissions?

Surface-level ozone (O3) pollution mitigation strategies rely on a clear understanding of the atmospheric chemical processes involving O3, NOx (nitric oxide (NO) + nitrogen dioxide (NO2)) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). A robust spatiotemporal classification of O3 photochemical regimes with relative chemical sensitivity of local O3 formation to emission reductions of NOx (NOx-limited regime) versus VOCs (radical-limited regime) is required to design anthropogenic emission reduction policies in order to improve surface air quality. Numerous studies found that the ratio of satellite-retrieved Vertical Column Densities (VCDs) of formaldehyde (HCHO) to NO2 can diagnose O3 production sensitivity. However, uncertainty still remains about the accuracy of such estimates using satellite-based retrievals. This study conducts an investigation to identify how well satellite data can inform surface-level O3 sensitivity by validating satellite-based estimates against aircraft-based retrievals taken during the Long Island Sound Tropospheric Ozone Study (LISTOS-2018) and Ozone Water-Land Environmental Transition Study (OWLETS-2) field campaigns. For this study, we use HCHO and NO2 retrievals from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) onboard the Aura satellite, and high spatiotemporal resolution TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) onboard the Sentinel-5 Precursor (S5P) satellite. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modelling system is used to provide trace gas vertical profiles to recalculate air mass factor for deriving consistent satellite-based VCDs. To demonstrate the ability of satellites to diagnose O3 production regimes, we validate satellite-derived O3 sensitivity regimes, along with the OMI and TROPOMI products applied, using HCHO and NO2 retrievals from the aircraft-based instruments: Geostationary Trace gas and Aerosol Sensor Optimization (GeoTASO) spectrometer and Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events Airborne Simulator (GCAS) instruments deployed during the LISTOS-2018 and OWLETS-2 campaigns. The results of this work will advance our fundamental knowledge of the spatiotemporal evolution of the complex O3-NOx-VOC chemistry, and will advance our understanding about the quality of remote-sensing, suborbital, and satellite data for accurately observing surface-level O3 production sensitivity.

Satellite↗

Convective transport over the central United States and its role in regional CO and ozone budgets

We have constructed a regional budget for boundary layer carbon monoxide over the central United States (32.5 deg - 50 deg N, 90 deg - 105 deg W), emphasizing a detailed evaluation of deep convective vertical fluxes appropriate for the month of June. Deep convective venting of the boundary layer (upward) dominates other components of the CO budget, e.g., downward convective transport, loss of CO by oxidation, anthropogenic emissions, and CO produced from oxidation of methane, isoprene, and anthropogenic nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHCs). Calculations of deep convective venting are based on the method pf Pickering et al.(1992a) which uses a satellite-derived deep convective cloud climatology along with transport statistics from convective cloud model simulations of observed prototype squall line events. This study uses analyses of convective episodes in 1985 and 1989 and CO measurements taken during several midwestern field campaigns. Deep convective venting of the boundary layer over this moderately polluted region provides a net (upward minus downward) flux of 18.1 x 10(exp 8) kg CO/month to the free troposphere during early summer. Shallow cumulus and synoptic-scale weather systems together make a comparable contribution (total net flux 16.2 x 10(exp 8) kg CO/month). Boundary layer venting of CO with other O3 precursors leads to efficient free troposheric O3 formation. We estimate that deep convective transport of CO and other precursors over the central United States in early summer leads to a gross production of 0.66 - 1.1 Gmol O3/d in good agreement with estimates of O3 production from boundary layer venting in a continental-scale model (Jacob et al., 1993a, b). On this respect the central U.S. region acts as s `chimney' for the country, and presumably this O3 contributes to high background levels of O3 in the eastern United States and O3 export to the North Atlantic.

Thompson, Anne M.↗

High-school Student Teams in a National NASA Microgravity Science Competition

The Dropping In a Microgravity Environment or DIME competition for high-school-aged student teams has completed the first year for nationwide eligibility after two regional pilot years. With the expanded geographic participation and increased complexity of experiments, new lessons were learned by the DIME staff. A team participating in DIME will research the field of microgravity, develop a hypothesis, and prepare a proposal for an experiment to be conducted in a NASA microgravity drop tower. A team of NASA scientists and engineers will select the top proposals and then the selected teams will design and build their experiment apparatus. When completed, team representatives will visit NASA Glenn in Cleveland, Ohio to operate their experiment in the 2.2 Second Drop Tower and participate in workshops and center tours. NASA participates in a wide variety of educational activities including competitive events. There are competitive events sponsored by NASA (e.g. NASA Student Involvement Program) and student teams mentored by NASA centers (e.g. For Inspiration and Recognition of Science and Technology Robotics Competition). This participation by NASA in these public forums serves to bring the excitement of aerospace science to students and educators.Researchers from academic institutions, NASA, and industry utilize the 2.2 Second Drop Tower at NASA Glenn Research Center in Cleveland, Ohio for microgravity research. The researcher may be able to complete the suite of experiments in the drop tower but many experiments are precursor experiments for spaceflight experiments. The short turnaround time for an experiment's operations (45 minutes) and ready access to experiment carriers makes the facility amenable for use in a student program. The pilot year for DIME was conducted during the 2000-2001 school year with invitations sent out to Ohio- based schools and organizations. A second pilot year was conducted during the 2001-2002 school year for teams in the six-state region of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin. The third year for DIME was conducted during the 2002-2003 school year for teams from the fifty United States, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. An annual national DIME program is planned for the foreseeable future. Presented in this paper will be a description of DIME, an overview of the planning and execution of such a program, results from the first three years, and lessons learned from the first national competition.

DeLombard, Richard↗

High Cooling Rates of Type-II Chondrules: Limited Overgrowths on Phenocrysts Following the Final Melting Event

In a study of type-II chondrules in Y81020 Wasson and Rubin (2003) described three kinds of evidence indicating that only minor (4-10 m) olivine growth occurred following the final melting event: 1) Nearly all (>90%) type-II chondrules in CO3.0 chondrites contain low-FeO relict grains; overgrowths on these relicts are narrow, in the range of 2-12 m. 2) Most type-II chondrules contain small (10-20 m) FeO-rich olivine grains with decurved surfaces and acute angles between faces indicating that the grains are fragments from an earlier generation of chondrules; the limited overgrowth thicknesses following the last melting event are too thin to disguise the shard-like nature of these small grains. 3) Most type-II chondrules contain many small (<20 m) euhedral or subhedral phenocrysts with central compositions that are much more ferroan than the centers of the large phenocrysts; their small sizes document the small amount of growth that occurred following the final melting event.We have additional data on chondrules in Y81020 and Semarkona, and we have reinterpreted observations of Jones (1990). The striking feature of this chondrule is the large number of tiny fragments. The chondrule precursor initially consisted of crushed olivine.

Wasson, John T.↗

Development of an Instrument Performance Simulation Capability for an Infrared Correlation Radiometer for Troposheric Carbon Monoxide Measurements From Geo

We present the progress toward an analytical performance model of a 2.3 micron infrared correlation radiometer (IRCRg) prototype subsystem for a future geostationary space-borne instrument. The prototype is designed specifically to measure carbon monoxide (CO) from geostationary orbit. NASA's Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events (GEO-CAPE) mission, one of the United States Earth Science and Applications Decadal Survey missions, specifies the use of infrared correlation radiometry to measure CO in two spectral regions for this mission. GEO-CAPE will use the robust IRCR measurement technique at geostationary orbit, nearly 50 times farther away than the Terra/MOPITT orbit, to determine hourly changes in CO across a continental domain. The abundance of CO in Earth's troposphere directly affects the concentration of hydroxyl, which regulates the lifetimes of many tropospheric pollutants. In addition, CO is a precursor to ozone formation; CO is used as a tracer to study the transport of global and regional pollutants; and CO is used as an indicator of both natural and anthropogenic air pollution sources and sinks. We have structured our development project to enable rapid evaluation of future spaceborne instrument designs. The project is part of NASA's Instrument Incubator Program. We describe the architecture of the performance model and the planned evaluation of the performance model using laboratory test data.

OsowskiNeil, Doreen↗

Midlatitude Lightning NOx Production Efficiency Inferred From OMI and WWLLN Data

Oxides of nitrogen are critical trace gases in the troposphere and are precursors for nitrate aerosol and ozone, which is an important pollutant and greenhouse gas. Lightning is the major source of NOx(NO + NO2) in the mid-to upper troposphere. We estimate the production efficiency (PE) of lightning NOx (LNOx) using satellite data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and the ground-based WorldWide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) in three northern midlatitude, primarily continental regions that include much of North America, Europe and East Asia. Data were obtained over 5 boreal summers, 2007 –2011 and comprise the largest number of midlatitude convective events to date for estimating the LNOx PE with satellite NO2and ground-based lightning measurements. In contrast to some previous studies, the algorithm assumes no minimum flash-rate threshold and estimates freshly produced LNOxby subtracting a background of aged NOx estimated from the OMI dataset itself. We infer an average value of 180 ± 100 moles LNOx produced per lightning flash. We also show evidence of a dependence of PE on lightning flash rate and find an approximate empirical power function relating moles LNOxto flashes. PE decreases by an order of magnitude for a 2-order of magnitude increase in flash rate. This phenomenon has not been reported in previous satellite LNOxstudies but is consistent with ground-based observations suggesting an inverse relationship between flash rate and size.

LNOx↗

Revisiting the Effectiveness Of HCHO/NO2 Ratios for Inferring Ozone Sensitivity to Its Precursors Using High Resolution Airborne Remote Sensing Observations in A High Ozone Episode During the KORUS-AQ Campaign

The nonlinear chemical processes involved in ozone production (P(O3)) have necessitated using proxy indicators to convey information about the primary dependence of P(O3) on volatile organic compounds (VOCs) or nitrogen oxides (NOx). In particular, the ratio of remotely sensed columns of formaldehyde (HCHO) to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) has been widely used for studying O3 sensitivity. Previous studies found that the errors in retrievals and the incoherent relationship between the column and the near-surface concentrations are a barrier in applying the ratio in a robust way. In addition to these obstacles, we provide calculational-observational evidence, using an ensemble of 0-D photochemical box models constrained by DC-8 aircraft measurements on an ozone event during the Korea-United States Air Quality (KORUS-AQ) campaign over Seoul, to demonstrate the chemical feedback of NO2 on the formation of HCHO is a controlling factor for the transition line between NOx-sensitive and NOx-saturated regimes. A fixed value (~2.7) of the ratio of the chemical loss of NOx (LNOx) to the chemical loss of HO2+RO2 (LROx) perceptibly differentiates the regimes. Following this value, data points with a ratio of HCHO/NO2 less than 1 can be safely classified as NOx-saturated regime, whereas points with ratios between 1 and 4 fall into one or the other regime. We attribute this mainly to the HCHO-NO2 chemical relationship causing the transition line to occur at larger (smaller) HCHO/NO2 ratios in VOC-rich (VOC-poor) environments. We then redefine the transition line to LNOx/LROx~2.7 that accounts for the HCHO-NO2 chemical relationship leading to HCHO = 3.7 × (NO2 – 1.14 × 1016 molec.cm-2). Although the revised formula is locally calibrated (i.e., requires for readjustment for other regions), its mathematical format removes the need for having a wide range of thresholds used in HCHO/NO2 ratios that is a result of the chemical feedback. Therefore, to be able to properly take the chemical feedback into consideration, the use of HCHO = a × (NO2 – b) formula should be preferred to the ratio in future works. We then use the Geostationary Trace gas and Aerosol Sensor Optimization (GeoTASO) airborne instrument to study O3 sensitivity in Seoul. The unprecedented spatial (250 × 250 m2) and temporal (~every 2 h) resolutions of HCHO and NO2 observations form the sensor enhance our understanding of P(O3) in Seoul; rather than providing a crude label for the entire city, more in-depth variabilities in chemical regimes are observed that should be able to inform mitigation strategies correspondingly.

KORUS-AQ; formaldehyde; NOx; VOC; OMI; GeoTASO; oz↗

Modeling Grade IV Gas Emboli using a Limited Failure Population Model with Random Effects

Venous gas emboli (VGE) (gas bubbles in venous blood) are associated with an increased risk of decompression sickness (DCS) in hypobaric environments. A high grade of VGE can be a precursor to serious DCS. In this paper, we model time to Grade IV VGE considering a subset of individuals assumed to be immune from experiencing VGE. Our data contain monitoring test results from subjects undergoing up to 13 denitrogenation test procedures prior to exposure to a hypobaric environment. The onset time of Grade IV VGE is recorded as contained within certain time intervals. We fit a parametric (lognormal) mixture survival model to the interval-and right-censored data to account for the possibility of a subset of "cured" individuals who are immune to the event. Our model contains random subject effects to account for correlations between repeated measurements on a single individual. Model assessments and cross-validation indicate that this limited failure population mixture model is an improvement over a model that does not account for the potential of a fraction of cured individuals. We also evaluated some alternative mixture models. Predictions from the best fitted mixture model indicate that the actual process is reasonably approximated by a limited failure population model.

Thompson, Laura A.↗

Chondrules in the Sharps H3 chondrite - Evidence for intergroup compositional differences among ordinary chondrite chondrules

Bulk compositions of 19 chondrules and one matrix-rich sample from H3.4 Sharps were determined by instrumental neutron activation analysis. Samples were characterized petrographically, and mineral compositions were determined by electron microprobe analysis. There is constancy among ordinary chondrite (OC) groups in the compositional interrelationships of different chondrule types; e.g., in H3 as well as L3 and LL3 chondrites, porphyritic chondrules are more refractory than nonporphyritic chondrules. Precursor components of H3 chondrules are closely related to those of LL3 chondrules. The mean Ir/Ni, Ir/Co, and Ir/Au ratios of H3 chondrules differ from the corresponding ratios of LL3 chondrules at the 99, 90, and 79 percent confidence levels, respectively. The ratios in H3 chondrules exceed those in LL3 chondrules by amounts similar to those by which H whole-rocks exceed LL whole-rocks. These data suggest that there are primary systematic differences in bulk composition between H and LL chondrules. These differences support the inference that chondrule formation occurred after major nebular fractionation events had established the observed bulk compositional differences among OC groups.

Rubin, Alan E.↗

Zircon, Baddeleyite, and Reidite Found in Ries Crater Suevite

Introduction: Impact events can generate superheated impact melts and even vapor [1]. In the past decade, evidence of the high temperatures and high pressures of the impact process has been found in the impact melt from terrestrial craters (e.g., Mistastin Lake [2], Meteor Crater [3]) and even on the Moon [4–5]. Often, these studies involve zircon or zirconium-bearing phases. Zircon is a particularly useful mineral, due to its robustness and durability against weathering. It is used principally for chronology, but it has a multitude of geologic applications, including geothermometry and fingerprinting magma sources. Here we focus on its capability of recording impact conditions. Grains of zircon (ZrSiO4) are converted at high temperature and/or pressure during an impact event to reidite (a high-pressure polymorph of ZrSiO4) or to tetragonal-ZrO2 + SiO2 [6]. Reidite and tertragonal-ZrO2 leave identifying relicts in the rocks, markers of the high pressures and/or temperatures these rocks underwent. Ries Crater is a 26-km-diameter peak ring crater in southern Germany that formed approximately 15 Ma [7–9]. Ries is the type locality of the polymict impact breccia known as suevite. Here, we report a microanalytical study of suevite from the Ries impact structure. These analyses are used to inform our understanding of the pressure and temperature conditions involved in creating a polymict impact breccia such as suevite in a peak ring crater. Sample Description: The sample, denoted 16RS08, originates from Otting Quarry, at 48.8777° N, 10.7921° E, approximately 17 km from the center of the Ries Crater in Germany (approximately 4 km outside the crater rim). The material recorded in sample 16RS08 is therefore considered an outer suevite. The outer suevite is a discontinuous layer of polymict impact breccia that occurs outside the central ring of Ries, up to 22 km from the center of the crater [9]. Lithic clasts in the outer suevite consist primarily of crystalline basement rocks (gneiss, granite, amphibolite), with less than 5% of lithic clasts being overlying sedimentary rocks (limestone, sandstone, shale) [9]. The thin section studied contains variably shocked lithic and mineral clasts, impact glass, and interstitial minerals that make up the matrix of the breccia (Fig. 1) [9]. Methods: We used a Cameca SX100 electron probe microanalyzer (EPMA) located in the Kuiper Materials Imaging and Characterization Facility (KMICF) at the University of Arizona to obtain 15 elemental X-ray maps of 16RS08. We next used the JEOL 7900F SEM at the Astromaterials Research & Exploration Science (ARES) at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) to obtain electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) maps and energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS) maps of select portions of the section. The EBSD data were collected under beam conditions of 20 kV, and ~9 μA, with step sizes varying from 0.05 to 2 μm. Following EBSD data collection, we processed the data using AZtecCrystal and MTEX, a free MATLAB toolbox. Results: We used the elemental X-ray maps to identify the areas of interest in the section, particularly phosphates and Zr-bearing grains. These areas of interest were then targeted for follow up EBSD and EDS analyses. We have identified, through combined EBSD and EDS analysis, the presence of zircon, reidite, and monoclinic-ZrO2 (baddeleyite) in 16RS08. In 16RS08, we have found singular grains of zircon, zircon with a vermicular baddeleyite halo (Fig. 2a), and granular zircon with reidite (Fig. 2b). The different Zr-rich phases and their corresponding textures signifies that this sample underwent a broad spectrum of pressure and temperature conditions during the impact event. For example, zircons surrounded by a vermicular baddeleyite and SiO2 intergrowth (i.e., Fig. 2a) have been shown to preserve evidence of the extremely high temperatures of impact melt, upwards of 2370 °C [2, 6]. Similarly, reidite and granular zircon (i.e., Fig. 2b) have been shown to preserve evidence of high pressure, as the transition to reidite occurs >30 GPa [3, 6]. Future Work: Next, we will process the EBSD and EDS data for these Zr-rich grains, specifically looking for indicators of cubic- or tetragonal-ZrO2 in the baddeleyite remnants and of shock-precursors to the reidite. To further inform our work, we will also obtain BSE images of these grains using a Hitachi S-4800 SEM in KMICF at the University of Arizona, as well as geochemical spot analyses via EPMA. The data collected will be used to constrain the formation conditions of the Ries Crater outer suevite. Acknowledgments: We thank Ken Domanik and Jerry Chang for their support with data collection. This work was supported by a University of Arizona RII Core Facilities Pilot Program grant and start-up funds to JJB. TME thanks A. Cavosie and N. Timms for assistance during field sampling. We acknowledge support from NASA’s Planetary Science Research program for analysis performed at JSC. References: [1] Melosh H. J. (1989) Oxf. U. Press. [2] Timms et al. (2017) EPSL 477, 52–58. [3] Cavosie et al. (2016) Geology 44:9, 703–706. [4] White et al. (2020) Nature Astr. 4, 974–978. [5] Crow C. A. et al. (2017) GCA 202, 264–284. [6] Timms et al. (2017) Earth-Sci. Rev. 165, 185–202. [7] Schmieder M. et al. (2018) GCA 220, 146–157. [8] Schwarz W. H. et al. (2020) M&PS 55:2, 312–325. [9] Stöffler et al. (2013) M&PS 43:4, 515–589.

Zircon↗

Arctic Tropospheric Ozone: Assessment of Current Knowledge and Model Performance

As the third most important greenhouse gas (GHG) after carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), tropospheric ozone (O3) is also an air pollutant causing damage to human health and ecosystems. This study brings together recent research on observations and modeling of tropospheric O3 in the Arctic, a rapidly warming and sensitive environment. At different locations in the Arctic, the observed surface O3 seasonal cycles are quite different. Coastal Arctic locations, for example, have a minimum in the springtime due to O3 depletion events resulting from surface bromine chemistry. In contrast, other Arctic locations have a maximum in the spring. The 12 state-of-the-art models used in this study lack the surface halogen chemistry needed to simulate coastal Arctic surface O3 depletion in the springtime; however, the multi-model median (MMM) has accurate seasonal cycles at non-coastal Arctic locations. There is a large amount of variability among models, which has been previously reported, and we show that there continues to be no convergence among models or improved accuracy in simulating tropospheric O3 and its precursor species. The MMM underestimates Arctic surface O3 by 5 % to 15 % depending on the location. The vertical distribution of tropospheric O3 is studied from recent ozonesonde measurements and the models. The models are highly variable, simulating free-tropospheric O3 within a range of ±50 % depending on the model and the altitude. The MMM performs best, within ±8 % for most locations and seasons. However, nearly all models overestimate O3 near the tropopause (∼300 hPa or ∼8 km), likely due to ongoing issues with underestimating the altitude of the tropopause and excessive downward transport of stratospheric O3 at high latitudes. For example, the MMM is biased high by about 20 % at Eureka. Observed and simulated O3 precursors (CO, NOx, and reservoir PAN) are evaluated throughout the troposphere. Models underestimate wintertime CO everywhere, likely due to a combination of underestimating CO emissions and possibly overestimating OH. Throughout the vertical profile (compared to aircraft measurements), the MMM underestimates both CO and NOx but overestimates PAN. Perhaps as a result of competing deficiencies, the MMM O3 matches the observed O3 reasonably well. Our findings suggest that despite model updates over the last decade, model results are as highly variable as ever and have not increased in accuracy for representing Arctic tropospheric O3.

Arctic↗

Neutrino Emission in the Hadronic Synchrotron Mirror Model: The "Orphan" Flare from 1ES 1959+650

A challenge to standard leptonic synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) models is the so-called orphan TeV flares, i.e., enhanced very high energy (VHE) gamma-ray emission without any contemporaneous X-ray flaring activity, that have recently been observed in TeV blazars (e.g., 1ES 1959+650). In order to explain the orphan TeV flare of 1 ES 1959+650 observed in 2002 June, the so-called hadronic synchrotron mirror model has been developed. Here relativistic protons are proposed to exist in the jet and interact with reflected electron synchrotron radiation of the precursor SSC flare. If the reflector is located in the cloud region, time shifts of several days are possible between the precursor and the orphan flare. The external photons, blue-shifted in the comoving jet frame, are able to excite the Delta(1232) resonance when interacting with protons of Lorentz factors gamma(sub p) approx. 10(exp 3)-10(exp 4). The decay products of this resonance include charged pions, which, on decay, give rise to neutrino production during the orphan flare. In this paper we calculate the expected neutrino emission for the 2002 June 4 orphan TeV flare of 1ES 1959+650. We compare our results with the recent observations of AMANDA-II of a neutrino event in spatial and temporal coincidence with the orphan flare of this blazar. We find that the expected neutrino signal from the hadronic synchrotron mirror model is insufficient to explain the claimed neutrino signal from the direction of 1ES 1959+650.

Reimer, A.↗

Global Precipitation during the 1997-98 El Nino and Initiation of the 1998-99 La Nina

The 1997-99 ENSO (El nino Southern Oscillation) cycle was very powerful, but also well observed. The best satellite rainfall estimates combined with gauge observations allow for a global analysis of precipitation anomalies accompanying the 1997-98 El Nino and initiation of the 1998-99 La Nina. For the period April 1997 to March 1998 the central to eastern Pacific, southeastern and western U.S., Argentina, eastern Africa, South China, eastern Russia, and North Atlantic were all more than two standard deviations wetter than normal. During the same year the Maritime Continent, eastern Indian Ocean, subtropical North Pacific, northeastern South America, and much of the mid- latitude southern oceans were more than two standard deviations drier than normal. An analysis of the evolution of the El Nino and accompanying precipitation anomalies revealed that a dry Maritime Continent led the formation of the El Nino SST (Sea Surface Temperature), while in the central Pacific, precipitation anomalies lagged the El Nino SST by a season. A rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina occurred in May 1998, but as early as October-November 1997 precipitation indices captured precursor changes in Pacific rainfall anomalies. Differences were found between observed and modeled [NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis] precipitation anomalies for 1997 and 98. In particular, the model had a bias towards positive precipitation anomalies and the magnitudes of the anomalies in the equatorial Pacific were small compared to the observations. Also, the evolution of the precipitation field, including the drying of the Maritime Continent and eastward progression of rainfall in the equatorial Pacific, was less pronounced for the model compared to the observations. One degree daily estimates of rainfall show clearly the MaddenJulian Oscillation and related westerly wind burst events over the Maritime Continent, which are key indicators for the onset of El Nino.

Curtis, Scott↗

The Planetesimal Bow Shock Model for Chondrule Formation: More Detailed Simulations in the Near Vicinity of the Planetesimal

Gas dynamic shock waves in a low temperature nebula have been considered to be a leading candidate mechanism for providing the repetitive, short-duration heating events that are believed to have been responsible for the formation of chondrules in chondrites. It has been found, for example, that shocks with Mach numbers greater than 4 or 5 would be capable of rapidly melting 0.1-1 mm sized silicate particles as required by meteoritic data. Near the nebula midplane where chondrite parent bodies are believed to have formed, possible energy sources for generating multiple shocks include mass concentrations in a gravitationally unstable nebula, tidal interactions of proto-Jupiter with the nebula, and bow waves upstream of planetesimals scattered gravitationally into eccentric orbits by proto- Jupiter. In a recent study, we have found that chondrule precursors that are melted following passage through a planetesimal bow shock would likely cool at rates that are too rapid to be consistent with meteoritic evidence. However, that study was limited to the bowshock exterior to about 1.5 planetesimal radii (measured perpendicular to the symmetry axis) to avoid complications interior to this distance where large pressure gradients and lateral flow occur as the gas flows around the planetesimal. In this paper, we reconsider the planetesimal bow shock model and report more detailed numerical simulations of chondrule precursor heating, cooling, and dynamical histories in the near vicinity of a representative planetesimal.

Hood, Lon L.↗

Disturbances in North American Boreal Forest and Arctic Tundra: Impacts, Interactions, and Responses

Ecosystems in the North American Arctic-Boreal Zone (ABZ) experience a diverse set of disturbances associated with wildfire, permafrost dynamics, geomorphic processes, insect outbreaks and pathogens, extreme weather events, and human activity. Climate warming in the ABZ is occurring at over twice the rate of the global average, and as a result the extent, frequency, and severity of these disturbances are increasing rapidly. Disturbances in the ABZ span a wide gradient of spatiotemporal scales and have varying impacts on ecosystem properties and function. However, many ABZ disturbances are relatively understudied and have different sensitivities to climate and trajectories of recovery, resulting in considerable uncertainty in the impacts of climate warming and human land use on ABZ vegetation dynamics and in the interactions between disturbance types. Here we review the current knowledge of ABZ disturbances and their precursors, ecosystem impacts, temporal frequencies, spatial extents, and severity. We also summarize current knowledge of interactions and feedbacks among ABZ disturbances and characterize typical trajectories of vegetation loss and recovery in response to ecosystem disturbance using satellite time-series. We conclude with a summary of critical data and knowledge gaps and identify priorities for future study.

high-latitude↗