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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
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NASA NTRS2024

Artemis I Optical Navigation System Performance

This paper summarizes the assessment of the Optical Navigation Flight Test Objective (FTO) during the flight of Artemis I. The Optical Navigation (OpNav) System was tested under a variety of range, target, and lighting conditions to evaluate the performance compared to the pre-flight predicted error models. In general, OpNav performed very well – successfully processing over a thousand images of starfields, Earth, and Moon. The performance of the algorithm when processing Moon images matched the pre-flight expected error models. The errors when processing Earth images were notably higher than the pre-flight models predicted, however this was found to be due to an over-estimation of the atmosphere bias used in the tuning of the algorithm. After the bias was re-tuned and the images reprocessed, performance significantly improved.

GNC↗
NASA NTRS2003

Comparison of Flow-Dependent and Static Error Correlation Models in the DAO Ozone Data Assimilation System

In a data assimilation system the forecast error covariance matrix governs the way in which the data information is spread throughout the model grid. Implementation of a correct method of assigning covariances is expected to have an impact on the analysis results. The simplest models assume that correlations are constant in time and isotropic or nearly isotropic. In such models the analysis depends on the dynamics only through assumed error standard deviations. In applications to atmospheric tracer data assimilation this may lead to inaccuracies, especially in regions with strong wind shears or high gradient of potential vorticity, as well as in areas where no data are available. In order to overcome this problem we have developed a flow-dependent covariance model that is based on short term evolution of error correlations. The presentation compares performance of a static and a flow-dependent model applied to a global three- dimensional ozone data assimilation system developed at NASA s Data Assimilation Office. We will present some results of validation against WMO balloon-borne sondes and the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM) III instrument. Experiments show that allowing forecast error correlations to evolve with the flow results in positive impact on assimilated ozone within the regions where data were not assimilated, particularly at high latitudes in both hemispheres and in the troposphere. We will also discuss statistical characteristics of both models; in particular we will argue that including evolution of error correlations leads to stronger internal consistency of a data assimilation ,

Wargan, K.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Report of the Subpanel on Error Characterization and Error Budgets

The state of knowledge of both user positioning requirements and error models of current and proposed satellite systems is reviewed. In particular the error analysis models for LANDSAT D are described. Recommendations are given concerning the geometric error model for the thematic mapper; interactive user involvement in system error budgeting and modeling and verification on real data sets; and the identification of a strawman mission for modeling key error sources.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1989

Dynamical predictability in a simple general circulation model - Average error growth

Average predictability and error growth in a simple realistic two-level general circulation model (GCM) were investigated using a series of Monte Carlo experiments for fixed external forcing (perpetual winter in the Northern Hemisphere). It was found that, for realistic initial errors, the dependence of the limit of dynamic predictability on total wavenumber was similar to that found for the ECMWF model for the 1980/1981 winter conditions, with the lowest wavenumbers showing significant skill for forecast ranges of more than 1 month. On the other hand, for very small amplitude errors distributed according to the climate spectrum, the total error growth was superexponential, reaching a maximum growth rate (2-day doubling time) in about 1 week. A simple empirical model of error variance, which involved two broad wavenumber bands and incorporating a 3/2 power saturation term, was found to provide an excellent fit to the GCM error growth behavior.

Schubert, Siegfried D.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors for Model Skill Assessment and Objective Analysis

We proposed a novel characterization of errors for numerical weather predictions. A general distortion representation allows for the displacement and amplification or bias correction of forecast anomalies. Characterizing and decomposing forecast error in this way has several important applications, including the model assessment application and the objective analysis application. In this project, we have focused on the assessment application, restricted to a realistic but univariate 2-dimensional situation. Specifically, we study the forecast errors of the sea level pressure (SLP), the 500 hPa geopotential height, and the 315 K potential vorticity fields for forecasts of the short and medium range. The forecasts are generated by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) data assimilation system with and without ERS-1 scatterometer data. A great deal of novel work has been accomplished under the current contract. In broad terms, we have developed and tested an efficient algorithm for determining distortions. The algorithm and constraints are now ready for application to larger data sets to be used to determine the statistics of the distortion as outlined above, and to be applied in data analysis by using GEOS water vapor imagery to correct short-term forecast errors.

Hoffman, Ross N.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Flight Test Results: CTAS Cruise/Descent Trajectory Prediction Accuracy for En route ATC Advisories

The Center/TRACON Automation System (CTAS), under development at NASA Ames Research Center, is designed to assist controllers with the management and control of air traffic transitioning to/from congested airspace. This paper focuses on the transition from the en route environment, to high-density terminal airspace, under a time-based arrival-metering constraint. Two flight tests were conducted at the Denver Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC) to study trajectory-prediction accuracy, the key to accurate Decision Support Tool advisories such as conflict detection/resolution and fuel-efficient metering conformance. In collaboration with NASA Langley Research Center, these test were part of an overall effort to research systems and procedures for the integration of CTAS and flight management systems (FMS). The Langley Transport Systems Research Vehicle Boeing 737 airplane flew a combined total of 58 cruise-arrival trajectory runs while following CTAS clearance advisories. Actual trajectories of the airplane were compared to CTAS and FMS predictions to measure trajectory-prediction accuracy and identify the primary sources of error for both. The research airplane was used to evaluate several levels of cockpit automation ranging from conventional avionics to a performance-based vertical navigation (VNAV) FMS. Trajectory prediction accuracy was analyzed with respect to both ARTCC radar tracking and GPS-based aircraft measurements. This paper presents detailed results describing the trajectory accuracy and error sources. Although differences were found in both accuracy and error sources, CTAS accuracy was comparable to the FMS in terms of both meter-fix arrival-time performance (in support of metering) and 4D-trajectory prediction (key to conflict prediction). Overall arrival time errors (mean plus standard deviation) were measured to be approximately 24 seconds during the first flight test (23 runs) and 15 seconds during the second flight test (25 runs). The major source of error during these tests was found to be the predicted winds aloft used by CTAS. Position and velocity estimates of the airplane provided to CTAS by the ATC Host radar tracker were found to be a relatively insignificant error source for the trajectory conditions evaluated. Airplane performance modeling errors within CTAS were found to not significantly affect arrival time errors when the constrained descent procedures were used. The most significant effect related to the flight guidance was observed to be the cross-track and turn-overshoot errors associated with conventional VOR guidance. Lateral navigation (LNAV) guidance significantly reduced both the cross-track and turn-overshoot error. Pilot procedures and VNAV guidance were found to significantly reduce the vertical profile errors associated with atmospheric and aircraft performance model errors.

Green, S.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Experimental Robust Control of Structural Acoustic Radiation

This work addresses the design and application of robust controllers for structural acoustic control. Both simulation and experimental results are presented. H(infinity) and mu-synthesis design methods were used to design feedback controllers which minimize power radiated from a panel while avoiding instability due to unmodeled dynamics. Specifically, high order structural modes which couple strongly to the actuator-sensor path were poorly modeled. This model error was analytically bounded with an uncertainty model, which allowed controllers to be designed without artificial limits on control effort. It is found that robust control methods provide the control designer with physically meaningful parameters with which to tune control designs and can be very useful in determining limits of performance. Experimental results also showed, however, poor robustness properties for control designs with ad-hoc uncertainty models. The importance of quantifying and bounding model errors is discussed.

Cox, David E.↗
NASA NTRS2004

What is data assimilation really solving, and how is the calculation actually done?

Data assimilation is a procedure in which observations are combined with models. The observations correct model errors on the one hand, and the models extrapolate the data information in space, time, and among different properties on the other. The result of assimilation is generally a more complete and more accurate description of the state of the modeled system than those obtained by either observations or model simulations alone. However, data assimilation is not a panacea for correcting every model error or for compensating all deficiencies of observations.

smoother↗
NASA NTRS2015

Method for Real-Time Model Based Structural Anomaly Detection

A system and methods for real-time model based vehicle structural anomaly detection are disclosed. A real-time measurement corresponding to a location on a vehicle structure during an operation of the vehicle is received, and the real-time measurement is compared to expected operation data for the location to provide a modeling error signal. A statistical significance of the modeling error signal to provide an error significance is calculated, and a persistence of the error significance is determined. A structural anomaly is indicated, if the persistence exceeds a persistence threshold value.

Smith, Timothy A.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors for Model Skill Assessment and Objective Analysis

We proposed a novel characterization of errors for numerical weather predictions. In its simplest form we decompose the error into a part attributable to phase errors and a remainder. The phase error is represented in the same fashion as a velocity field and is required to vary slowly and smoothly with position. A general distortion representation allows for the displacement and amplification or bias correction of forecast anomalies. Characterizing and decomposing forecast error in this way has two important applications, which we term the assessment application and the objective analysis application. For the assessment application, our approach results in new objective measures of forecast skill which are more in line with subjective measures of forecast skill and which are useful in validating models and diagnosing their shortcomings. With regard to the objective analysis application, meteorological analysis schemes balance forecast error and observational error to obtain an optimal analysis. Presently, representations of the error covariance matrix used to measure the forecast error are severely limited. For the objective analysis application our approach will improve analyses by providing a more realistic measure of the forecast error. We expect, a priori, that our approach should greatly improve the utility of remotely sensed data which have relatively high horizontal resolution, but which are indirectly related to the conventional atmospheric variables. In this project, we are initially focusing on the assessment application, restricted to a realistic but univariate 2-dimensional situation. Specifically, we study the forecast errors of the sea level pressure (SLP) and 500 hPa geopotential height fields for forecasts of the short and medium range. Since the forecasts are generated by the GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) data assimilation system with and without ERS 1 scatterometer data, these preliminary studies serve several purposes. They (1) provide a testbed for the use of the distortion representation of forecast errors, (2) act as one means of validating the GEOS data assimilation system and (3) help to describe the impact of the ERS 1 scatterometer data.

Hoffman, Ross N.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Computer program to minimize prediction error in models from experiments with 16 hypercube points and 0 to 6 center points

A previous report described a backward deletion procedure of model selection that was optimized for minimum prediction error and which used a multiparameter combination of the F - distribution and an order statistics distribution of Cochran's. A computer program is described that applies the previously optimized procedure to real data. The use of the program is illustrated by examples.

Holms, A. G.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Low Average Sidelobe Slot Array Antennas for Radiometer Applications

In radiometer applications, it is required to design antennas that meet low average sidelobe levels and low average return loss over a specified frequency bandwidth. It is a challenge to meet such specifications over a frequency range when one uses resonant elements such as waveguide feed slots. In addition to their inherent narrow frequency band performance, the problem is exacerbated due to modeling errors and manufacturing tolerances. There was a need to develop a design methodology to solve the problem. An iterative design procedure was developed by starting with an array architecture, lattice spacing, aperture distribution, waveguide dimensions, etc. The array was designed using Elliott s technique with appropriate values of the total slot conductance in each radiating waveguide, and the total resistance in each feed waveguide. Subsequently, the array performance was analyzed by the full wave method of moments solution to the pertinent integral equations. Monte Carlo simulations were also carried out to account for amplitude and phase errors introduced for the aperture distribution due to modeling errors as well as manufacturing tolerances. If the design margins for the average sidelobe level and the average return loss were not adequate, array architecture, lattice spacing, aperture distribution, and waveguide dimensions were varied in subsequent iterations. Once the design margins were found to be adequate, the iteration was stopped and a good design was achieved. A symmetric array architecture was found to meet the design specification with adequate margin. The specifications were near 40 dB for angular regions beyond 30 degrees from broadside. Separable Taylor distribution with nbar=4 and 35 dB sidelobe specification was chosen for each principal plane. A non-separable distribution obtained by the genetic algorithm was found to have similar characteristics. The element spacing was obtained to provide the required beamwidth and close to a null in the E-plane end-fire direction. Because of the alternating slot offsets, grating lobes called butterfly lobes are produced in non-principal planes close to the H-plane. An attempt to reduce the influence of such grating lobes resulted in a symmetric design.

Rengarajan, Sembiam↗
NASA NTRS2003

A Physical Validation Program for the GPM Mission

The GPM mission is currently planned for start in the late 2007 - early 2008 time frame. Its main scientific goal is to help answer pressing scientific problems arising within the context of global and regional water cycling. These problems cut across a hierarchy of scales and include climate-water cycle interactions, techniques for improving weather and climate predictions, and better methods for combining observed precipitation with hydrometeorological prediction models for applications to hazardous flood-producing storms, seasonal flood draught conditions, and fresh water resource assessments. The GPM mission will expand the scope of precipitation measurement through the use of a constellation of some 9 satellites, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like core satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band precipitation radar and an advanced, multifrequency passive microwave radiometer with vertical-horizontal polarization discrimination. The other constellation members will include new dedicated satellites and co-existing operational/research satellites carrying similar (but not identical) passive microwave radiometers. The goal of the constellation is to achieve approximately 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe -- continuously. The constellation's orbit architecture will consist of a mix of sun-synchronous and non-sun-synchronous satellites with the core satellite providing measurements of cloud-precipitation microphysical processes plus calibration-quality rainrate retrievals to be used with the other retrieval information to ensure bias-free constellation coverage. A major requirement before the retrieved rainfall information generated by the GPM mission can be used effectively by prognostic models to improve weather forecasts, hydrometeorological forecasts, and climate model reanalysis simulations is a capability to quantify the error characteristics of the retrievals. A solution for this problem has been upheld in past precipitation missions because of the lack of suitable error modeling systems incorporated into the validation programs and data distribution systems. An overview of how NASA intends to overcome this problem for the GPM mission using a physically-based error modeling approach within a multi-faceted validation program is described. The solution is to first identify specific user requirements and then determine the most stringent of these requirements that embodies all essential error characterization information needed by the entire user community. In the context of NASA s scientific agenda for the GPM mission, the most stringent user requirement is found within the data assimilation community. The fundamental theory of data assimilation vis-a-vis ingesting satellite precipitation information into the pre-forecast initializations is based on quantifying the conditional bias and precision errors of individual rain retrievals, and the space-time structure of the precision error (i.e., the spatial-temporal error covariance). By generating the hardware and software capability to produce this information in a near real-time fashion, and to couple the derived quantitative error properties to the actual retrieved rainrates, all key validation users can be satisfied. The talk will describe the essential components of the hardware and software systems needed to generate such near real-time error properties, as well as the various paradigm shifts needed within the validation community to produce a validation program relevant to the precipitation user community.

Smith, Eric A.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors for Model Skill Assessment and Objective Analysis

We study a novel characterization of errors for numerical weather predictions. In its simplest form we decompose the error into a part attributable to phase errors and a remainder. The phase error is represented in the same fashion as a velocity field and will be required to vary slowly and smoothly with position. A general distortion representation allows for the displacement and a bias correction of forecast anomalies. In brief, the distortion is determined by minimizing the objective function by varying the displacement and bias correction fields. In the present project we use a global or hemispheric domain, and spherical harmonics to represent these fields. In this project we are initially focusing on the assessment application, restricted to a realistic but univariate 2-dimensional situation. Specifically we study the forecast errors of the 500 hPa geopotential height field for forecasts of the short and medium range. The forecasts are those of the Goddard Earth Observing System data assimilation system. Results presented show that the methodology works, that a large part of the total error may be explained by a distortion limited to triangular truncation at wavenumber 10, and that the remaining residual error contains mostly small spatial scales.

Hoffman, Ross N.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Autonomous Navigation Improvements for High-Earth Orbiters Using GPS

The Goddard Space Flight Center is currently developing autonomous navigation systems for satellites in high-Earth orbits where acquisition of the GPS signals is severely limited This paper discusses autonomous navigation improvements for high-Earth orbiters and assesses projected navigation performance for these satellites using Global Positioning System (GPS) Standard Positioning Service (SPS) measurements. Navigation performance is evaluated as a function of signal acquisition threshold, measurement errors, and dynamic modeling errors using realistic GPS signal strength and user antenna models. These analyses indicate that an autonomous navigation position accuracy of better than 30 meters root-mean-square (RMS) can be achieved for high-Earth orbiting satellites using a GPS receiver with a very stable oscillator. This accuracy improves to better than 15 meters RMS if the GPS receiver's signal acquisition threshold can be reduced by 5 dB-Hertz to track weaker signals.

Long, Anne↗
NASA NTRS1994

GPS tracking of TOPEX/POSEIDON: Results and implications

A reduced dynamic filtering strategy that exploits the unique geometric strength of the Global Positioning System (GPS) to minimize the effects of force model errors has yielded orbit solutions for TOPEX/POSEIDON which appear accurate to better than 3 cm (1 sigma) in the radial component. Reduction of model error also reduces the geographic correlation of the orbit error. With a traditional dynamic approach, GPS yields radial orbit accuracies of 4-5 cm, comparable to the accuracy delivered by satellite laser ranging and the Doppler orbitography and radio positioning integrated by satellite (DORIS) tracking system. A portion of the dynamic orbit error is in the Joint Gravity Model-2 (JGM-2); GPS data from TOPEX/POSEIDON can readily reveal that error and have been used to improve the gravity model.

Bertiger, W. I.↗
NASA NTRS1985

An error-dependent model of instrument-scanning behavior in commercial airline pilots

A new flexible model of pilot instrument scanning behavior is presented which assumes that the pilot uses a set of deterministic scanning patterns on the pilot's perception of error in the state of the aircraft, and the pilot's knowledge of the interactive nature of the aircraft's systems. Statistical analyses revealed that a three stage Markov process composed of the pilot's three predicted lookpoints (LP), occurring 1/30, 2/30, and 3/30 of a second prior to each LP, accurately modelled the scanning behavior of 14 commercial airline pilots while flying steep turn maneuvers in a Boeing 737 flight simulator. The modelled scanning data for each pilot were not statistically different from the observed scanning data in comparisons of mean dwell time, entropy, and entropy rate. These findings represent the first direct evidence that pilots are using deterministic scanning patterns during instrument flight. The results are interpreted as direct support for the error dependent model and suggestions are made for further research that could allow for identification of the specific scanning patterns suggested by the model.

Jones, D. H.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Ozone measurement systems improvements studies

Results are summarized of an initial study of techniques for measuring atmospheric ozone, carried out as the first phase of a program to improve ozone measurement techniques. The study concentrated on two measurement systems, the electro chemical cell (ECC) ozonesonde and the Dobson ozone spectrophotometer, and consisted of two tasks. The first task consisted of error modeling and system error analysis of the two measurement systems. Under the second task a Monte-Carlo model of the Dobson ozone measurement technique was developed and programmed for computer operation.

Thomas, R. W.↗