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At least 163 records · Page 9

On the Relationship Between the Length of Season and Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic Basin During the Weather Satellite Era, 1960-2013

Officially, the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season runs from June 1 through November 30 of each year. During this 183-day interval, the vast majority of tropical cyclone onsets are found to occur. For example, in a study of the 715 tropical cyclones that occurred in the North Atlantic basin during the interval 1945-2010, it was found that about 97 percent of them had their onsets during the conventional hurricane season, with the bulk (78 percent) having had onset during the late summer-early fall months of August, September, and October and with none having had onset in the month of March. For the 2014 hurricane season, it already has had the onset of its first named storm on July 1 (day of year (DOY) 182), Arthur, which formed off the east coast of Florida, rapidly growing into a category-2 hurricane with peak 1-minute sustained wind speed of about 90 kt and striking the coast of North Carolina as a category-2 hurricane on July 3. Arthur is the first hurricane larger than category-1 to strike the United States (U.S.) since the year 2008 when Ike struck Texas as a category-2 hurricane and there has not been a major hurricane (category-3 or larger) to strike the U.S. since Wilma struck Florida as a category-3 hurricane in 2005. Only two category-1 hurricanes struck the U.S. in the year 2012 (Isaac and Sandy, striking Louisiana and New York, respectively) and there were no U.S. land-falling hurricanes in 2013 (also true for the years 1962, 1973, 1978, 1981, 1982, 1990, 1994, 2000, 2001, 2006, 2009, and 2010). In recent years it has been argued that the length of season (LOS), determined as the inclusive elapsed time between the first storm day (FSD) and the last storm day (LSD) of the yearly hurricane season (i.e., when peak 1-minute sustained wind speed of at least 34 kt occurred and the tropical cyclone was not classified as 'extratropical'), has increased in length with the lengthening believed to be due to the FSD occurring sooner and the LSD occurring later and with both being related to global warming. In this study, the relationship between the LOS and tropical cyclone activity and climate is examined for the weather satellite era, 1960-2013. Estimates are also given for the LOS and LSD, as well as for the expected number of tropical cyclones (NTC), the total number of storm days (NSD), the total accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), and the net tropical cyclone activity (NTCA) index for the 2014 hurricane season.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Statistical Aspects of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones During the Weather Satellite Era, 1960-2013

This Technical Publication (TP) is part 2 of a two-part study of the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones that occurred during the weather satellite era, 1960-2013. In particular, this TP examines the inferred statistical relationships between 25 tropical cyclone parameters and 9 specific climate-related factors, including the (1) Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), (2) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), (3) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index, (4) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) index, (5) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index of the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), (6) NAO index of the Climate Research Unit (CRU), (7) Armagh surface air temperature (ASAT), (8) Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (GLOTI), and (9) Mauna Loa carbon dioxide (CO2) (MLCO2) index. Part 1 of this two-part study examined the statistical aspects of the 25 tropical cyclone parameters (e.g., frequencies, peak wind speed (PWS), accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), etc.) and provided the results of statistical testing (i.e., runs-testing, the t-statistic for independent samples, and Poisson distributions). Also, the study gave predictions for the frequencies of the number of tropical cyclones (NTC), number of hurricanes (NH), number of major hurricanes (NMH), and number of United States land-falling hurricanes (NUSLFH) expected for the 2014 season, based on the statistics of the overall interval 1960-2013, the subinterval 1995-2013, and whether the year 2014 would be either an El Niño year (ENY) or a non-El Niño year (NENY).

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Sensor Web Technology Challenges and Advancements for the Earth Science Decadal Survey Era

This paper examines the Earth science decadal survey era and the role ESTO developed sensor web technologies can contribute to the scientific observations. This includes hardware and software technology advances for in-situ and in-space measurements. Also discussed are emerging areas of importance such as the potential of small satellites for sensor web based observations as well as advances in data fusion critical to the science and societal benefits of future missions, and the challenges ahead.

sensor web↗

Characteristics of Precipitation Features and Annual Rainfall during the TRMM Era in the Central Andes

The central Andes extends from 7 deg to 21 deg S, with its eastern boundary defined by elevation (1000m and greater) and its western boundary by the coastline. The authors used a combination of surface observations, reanalysis, and the University of Utah Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation features (PF) database to understand the characteristics of convective systems and associated rainfall in the central Andes during the TRMM era, 1998-2012. Compared to other dry (West Africa), mountainous (Himalayas), and dynamically linked (Amazon) regions in the tropics, the central Andes PF population was distinct from these other regions, with small and weak PFs dominating its cumulative distribution functions and annual rainfall totals. No more than 10% of PFs in the central Andes met any of the thresholds used to identify and define deep convection (minimum IR cloud-top temperatures, minimum 85-GHz brightness temperature, maximum height of the 40-dBZ echo). For most of the PFs, available moisture was limited (less than 35mm) and instability low (less than 500 J kg(exp -1)). The central Andes represents a largely stable, dry to arid environment, limiting system development and organization. Hence, primarily short-duration events (less than 60 min) characterized by shallow convection and light to light-moderate rainfall rates (0.5-4.0 mm h(exp -1)) were found.

Andes Mountains↗

ERA's Open Rotor Studies Including Shielding for Noise Reduction

The Open Rotor is a modern version of the UnDucted Fan (UDF) that was flight tested in the late 1980's through a partnership between NASA and General Electric (GE). Tests were conducted in the 9' x 15' Low Speed Wind Tunnel and the 8' x 6' Supersonic Wind Tunnel starting in late 2009 and completed in early 2012. Aerodynamic and acoustic data were obtained for takeoff, approach and cruise simulations. GE was the primary partner, but other organizations were involved such as Boeing and Airbus who provided additional hardware for fuselage simulations. This test campaign provided the acoustic and performance characteristics for modern open rotor blades designs." NASA and GE conducted joint systems analysis to evaluate how well new blade designs would perform on a B737 class aircraft, and compared the results to an advanced higher bypass ratio turbofan." Acoustic shielding experiments were performed at NASA GRC and Boeing LSAF facilities to provide data for noise estimates of unconventional aircraft configurations with Open Rotor propulsion systems." The work was sponsored by NASA's aeronautics programs, including the Subsonic Fixed Wing (SFW) and the Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) projects."

Van Zante, Dale↗

NASA EOSDIS Evolution in the BigData Era

NASA's EOSDIS system faces several challenges in the Big Data Era. Although volumes are large (but not unmanageably so), the variety of different data collections is daunting. That variety also brings with it a large and diverse user community. One key evolution EOSDIS is working toward is to enable more science analysis to be performed close to the data.

Information Systems↗

Status of ERA Airframe Technology Demonstrators

NASA has created the Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) Project to explore and document the feasibility, benefits and technical risk of advanced vehicle configurations and enabling technologies that will reduce the impact of aviation on the environment. A critical aspect of this pursuit is the development of a lighter, more robust airframe that will enable the introduction of unconventional aircraft configurations that have higher lift-to-drag ratios, reduced drag, and lower community noise. The Airframe Technology subproject contains two elements. Under the Damage Arresting Composite Demonstration an advanced material system is being explored which will lead to lighter airframes that are more structural efficient than the composites used in aircraft today. Under the Adaptive Compliant Trailing Edge Flight Experiment a new concept of a flexible wing trailing edge is being evaluated which will reduce weight and improve aerodynamic performance. This presentation will describe the development these two airframe technologies.

Davis, Pamela↗

NASA ERA Integrated CFD for Wind Tunnel Testing of Hybrid Wing-Body Configuration

The NASA Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) Project explored enabling technologies to reduce impact of aviation on the environment. One project research challenge area was the study of advanced airframe and engine integration concepts to reduce community noise and fuel burn. To address this challenge, complex wind tunnel experiments at both the NASA Langley Research Center's (LaRC) 14'x22' and the Ames Research Center's 40'x80' low-speed wind tunnel facilities were conducted on a BOEING Hybrid Wing Body (HWB) configuration. These wind tunnel tests entailed various entries to evaluate the propulsion-airframe interference effects, including aerodynamic performance and aeroacoustics. In order to assist these tests in producing high quality data with minimal hardware interference, extensive Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) simulations were performed for everything from sting design and placement for both the wing body and powered ejector nacelle systems to the placement of aeroacoustic arrays to minimize its impact on vehicle aerodynamics. This paper presents a high-level summary of the CFD simulations that NASA performed in support of the model integration hardware design as well as the development of some CFD simulation guidelines based on post-test aerodynamic data. In addition, the paper includes details on how multiple CFD codes (OVERFLOW, STAR-CCM+, USM3D, and FUN3D) were efficiently used to provide timely insight into the wind tunnel experimental setup and execution.

Computational Fluid Dynamics↗

NASA ERA Integrated CFD for Wind Tunnel Testing of Hybrid Wing-Body Configuration

NASAs Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) Project explores enabling technologies to reduce aviations impact on the environment. One research challenge area for the project has been to study advanced airframe and engine integration concepts to reduce community noise and fuel burn. In order to achieve this, complex wind tunnel experiments at both the NASA Langley Research Centers (LaRC) 14x22 and the Ames Research Centers 40x80 low-speed wind tunnel facilities were conducted on a Boeing Hybrid Wing Body (HWB) configuration. These wind tunnel tests entailed various entries to evaluate the propulsion airframe interference effects including aerodynamic performance and aeroacoustics. In order to assist these tests in producing high quality data with minimal hardware interference, extensive Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) simulations were performed for everything from sting design and placement for both the wing body and powered ejector nacelle systems to the placement of aeroacoustic arrays to minimize its impact on the vehicles aerodynamics. This paper will provide a high level summary of the CFD simulations that NASA performed in support of the model integration hardware design as well as some simulation guideline development based on post-test aerodynamic data. In addition, the paper includes details on how multiple CFD codes (OVERFLOW, STAR-CCM+, USM3D, and FUN3D) were efficiently used to provide timely insight into the wind tunnel experimental setup and execution.

Computational Fluid Dynamics↗

Swift Follow-Up of IceCube Triggers, and Implications for the Advanced-LIGO Era

Between 2011 March and 2014 August Swift responded to 20 triggers from the IceCube neutrino observatory, observing the IceCube 50 per cent confidence error circle in X-rays, typically within 5 h of the trigger. No confirmed counterpart has been detected. We describe the Swift follow-up strategy and data analysis and present the results of the campaign. We discuss the challenges of distinguishing the X-ray counterpart to a neutrino trigger from serendipitous uncatalogued X-ray sources in the error circle, and consider the implications of our results for future strategies for multimessenger astronomy, with particular reference to the follow-up of gravitational wave triggers from the advanced-era detectors.

Evans, P. A.↗

Earth Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM) Overview and Comparison to Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2)

Earth-GRAM (Earth-Global Reference Atmospheric Model) Overview: Provides monthly statistics at any point in the atmosphere; Monthly, geographic, altitude variation; Current Version - Earth-GRAM 2016, C++; Output Includes - pressure, density, temperature, horizontal and vertical winds, speed of sound, atmospheric constituents; Used by engineering community to create atmospheric dispersions at a rapid runtime; Not a forecast model. MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2) Background: Developed by NASA Goddard Modelling and Assimilation Office; Horizontal Resolution: 0.625 degrees by 0.5 degrees longitude-by-latitude grid (NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis I vs. 2.5 degrees by 2.5 degrees currently used in Earth-GRAM); Vertical resolution: 72 model layers or interpolated to 42 pressure levels to 0.1 hectopascals (hPa) (NCEP reanalysis I, surface to 10hPa at 17 pressure levels).

White, Patrick W.↗

Evolution of the Mars Relay Network End-to-End Information System in the Mars Human Era (2030-2040)

In order to help the reader understand this evolution from the current to the future MRN state in the Mars human era, we will provide a description of the current communication infrastructure supporting Mars mission users, and how we envision it to change in order to meet the needs and challenges of supporting both human and robotic communication by 2030-2040. This includes the introduction of new data types like audio and video, and new in-situ relay services for communications and navigation services.

Kazz, Greg J.↗

Traffic Modeling for Deep Space Network in the Human Mars Exploration Era

In this article we describe the analysis and simulation effort of the end-to-end traffic flow for the Deep Space Network (DSN) in the Human Exploration Era, when DSN will provide communication and navigation services for human missions to distant celestial objects like the Moon, asteroids, and Mars. Using the network traffic derived for the 30-day period within July/August 2039 from the Space Communications Mission Model (SCMM), we simulate the bandwidths of the ground links and the buffer profiles of the network nodes. We also use a 2-state Markov scheme that models the store-and-forward mechanism that regulates the ground network traffic. The network traffic modeling and simulation generates ground bandwidth and buffer statistics, which in turn are used to formulate the future DSN ground network bandwidth and storage requirements.

Cheung, Kar-ming↗

Decadal Evolution of the Surface Energy Budget During the Fast Warming and Global Warming Hiatus Periods in the ERA-Interim

The global-mean surface temperature has experienced a rapid warming from the 1980s to early-2000s but a muted warming since, referred to as the global warming hiatus in the literature. Decadal changes in deep ocean heat uptake are thought to primarily account for the rapid warming and subsequent slowdown. Here, we examine the role of ocean heat uptake in establishing the fast warming and warming hiatus periods in the ERA-Interim through a decomposition of the global-mean surface energy budget. We find the increase of carbon dioxide alone yields a nearly steady increase of the downward longwave radiation at the surface from the 1980s to the present, but neither accounts for the fast warming nor warming hiatus periods. During the global warming hiatus period, the transfer of latent heat energy from the ocean to atmosphere increases and the total downward radiative energy flux to the surface decreases due to a reduction of solar absorption caused primarily by an increase of clouds. The reduction of radiative energy into the ocean and the surface latent heat flux increase cause the ocean heat uptake to decrease and thus contribute to the slowdown of the global-mean surface warming. Our analysis also finds that in addition to a reduction of deep ocean heat uptake, the fast warming period is also driven by enhanced solar absorption due predominantly to a decrease of clouds and by enhanced longwave absorption mainly attributed to the air temperature feedback.

Hu, Xiaoming↗

Evolution of the Mars Relay Network End-To-End Information System in the Mars Human Era (2016-2040)

In order to help the reader understand this evolution from the current to the future MRN state in the Mars human era, we will provide a description of the current communication infrastructure supporting Mars mission users, and how we envision it to change in order to meet the needs and challenges of supporting both human and robotic communication by 2030-2040. This includes the introduction of new data types like audio and video, and new in-situ relay services for communications and navigation services.

Kazz, Greg↗

New Era, New Opportunity, Is GES DISC Ready for Big Data Challenge?

The new era of Big Data has opened doors for many new opportunities, as well as new challenges, for both Earth science research/application and data communities. As one of the twelve NASA data centers - Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC), one of our great challenges has been how to help research/application community efficiently (quickly and properly) accessing, visualizing and analyzing the massive and diverse data in natural hazard research, management, or even prediction. GES DISC has archived over 2000 TB data on premises and distributed over 23,000 TB of data since 2010. Our data has been widely used in every phase of natural hazard management and research, i.e. long term risk assessment and reduction, forecasting and predicting, monitoring and detection, early warning, damage assessment and response. The big data challenge is not just about data storage, but also about data discoverability and accessibility, and even more, about data migration/mirroring in the cloud. This paper is going to demonstrate GES DISC’s efforts and approaches of evolving our overall Web services and powerful Giovanni (Geospatial Interactive Online Visualization ANd aNalysis Infrastructure) tool into further improving data discoverability and accessibility. Prototype works will also be presented.

Li, A.↗

Representation of Tropical Storms by the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2

This study examines the veracity of the tropical cyclone (TC) statistics estimated from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) global atmospheric reanalysis, focusing on the climatological-mean genesis regions, tracks and their lifetime maximum intensity, as well as the interannual and intraseasonal variations in TC activity. The results are validated against the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) data for 1980-2016. MERRA-2 represents the spatial distribution of the TC genesis location and the tracks realistically well over all main development regions (MDRs), but with notable discrepancies including too weak TC activity over the Arabian Sea and the South China Sea and too strong activity over the North Indian Ocean. Over the western North Pacific and the North Atlantic, MERRA-2 underestimates recurving TCs steered by background westerlies in the mid-latitudes and thereby exaggerates northwestward moving TCs, resulting in an overestimate of the landfall probability in East Asia and North America. Excessive development of TCs over the Bay of Bengal also tends to exaggerate the landfall probability in India. In spite of the discrepancies in the annual TC number, the seasonal variation of TC genesis is realistic in MERRA-2. MERRA-2 also captures the TC intensity relationship between the minimum pressure and the maximum surface wind speed at the mature stage, although the maximum intensity is weaker than in the observations. While MERRA-2 tends to reproduce the interannual variations of the observed TC number and the power dissipation index (PDI), the level of accuracy depends on the region. MERRA-2 describes the changes in the TC genesis region and tracks realistically according to the different phases of El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), although it is less realistic over the North Indian Ocean.

International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewa↗

New Flight Rules to Enable the Era of Aerial Mobility in the National Airspace System

In the 21st Century, new aviation markets, vehicle types, and technologies are fast emerging, inspiring new operational concepts for the National Airspace System such as Unmanned Aircraft Systems Traffic Management and Urban Air Mobility. These novel operations envision a dramatic increase in aerial mobility, or the ability to navigate freely through the airspace with unprecedented access and operational flexibility. Implementing these concepts presents a major challenge to the existing operational modes of Visual Flight Rules (VFR) and Instrument Flight Rules (IFR), developed under the limitations of early 20th Century technology and procedures to ensure safe navigation and separation from traffic. To meet this challenge and to support the needs of operators in the 21st Century and beyond, this paper proposes that VFR and IFR be augmented by new flight rules – Digital Flight Rules (DFR) – that leverage modern and emerging technologies and are not bound by restrictions borne of the state of technology 75-100 years ago. The objective of DFR is to provide safe and unfettered access to the airspace to all participating vehicle operators under all visibility conditions without incurring the limitations in operational flexibility inherent to IFR and even VFR. Advancements in communications, navigation, surveillance, aircraft connectivity, information access, automation technology, and supporting ground infrastructure provide the opportunity for the vehicle operator to engage at an unprecedented level in managing their flights regardless of flight visibility. Under DFR, these advancements enable the vehicle operator to assume full responsibility for traffic separation and therefore full trajectory management authority in all visibility conditions and airspace regions. The changes in roles and responsibilities are expected to enable greater airspace access and operational flexibility than afforded by IFR and VFR, thus enabling the emergence of new operations and a new era of advanced aerial mobility.

Mobility↗