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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An in-Time Aviation Safety Management System Concept of Operations and Modernization of the National Airspace System

The National Airspace System (NAS) is growing in complexity of aircraft, missions, and operations. In response, many organizations have published papers and concepts of operations (ConOps) for new and enhanced safety systems. The National Academies’ vision for an In-time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) is integral to Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) modernization efforts. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) System-Wide Safety (SWS) project is conducting safety research, exploring solutions, and defining the safety needs of future missions, such as Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) and autonomous aircraft operating in a more connected, flexible, and dynamic airspace. IASMS enables and provides a path for bringing FAA’s operational vision to fruition through increasingly automated safety systems that integrate services, functions, and capabilities (SFCs). These SFCs provide the necessary responsiveness to monitor, assess, and mitigate known hazards and emergent risks. This paper describes how safety in today’s air transportation system will need to evolve, identifies key points regarding in-time safety, and explores the criticality of IASMS in the future NAS.

IASMS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An In-time Aviation Safety Management System Concept of Operations and Modernization of the National Airspace System

Airspace↗

NASA NTRS1993

Development of code evaluation criteria for assessing predictive capability and performance

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), because of its unique ability to predict complex three-dimensional flows, is being applied with increasing frequency in the aerospace industry. Currently, no consistent code validation procedure is applied within the industry. Such a procedure is needed to increase confidence in CFD and reduce risk in the use of these codes as a design and analysis tool. This final contract report defines classifications for three levels of code validation, directly relating the use of CFD codes to the engineering design cycle. Evaluation criteria by which codes are measured and classified are recommended and discussed. Criteria for selecting experimental data against which CFD results can be compared are outlined. A four phase CFD code validation procedure is described in detail. Finally, the code validation procedure is demonstrated through application of the REACT CFD code to a series of cases culminating in a code to data comparison on the Space Shuttle Main Engine High Pressure Fuel Turbopump Impeller.

Lin, Shyi-Jang↗

NASA NTRS2015

Combustion Stability Verification for the Thrust Chamber Assembly of J-2X Developmental Engines 10001, 10002, and 10003

The J-2X engine, a liquid oxygen/liquid hydrogen propellant rocket engine available for future use on the upper stage of the Space Launch System vehicle, has completed testing of three developmental engines at NASA Stennis Space Center. Twenty-one tests of engine E10001 were conducted from June 2011 through September 2012, thirteen tests of the engine E10002 were conducted from February 2013 through September 2013, and twelve tests of engine E10003 were conducted from November 2013 to April 2014. Verification of combustion stability of the thrust chamber assembly was conducted by perturbing each of the three developmental engines. The primary mechanism for combustion stability verification was examining the response caused by an artificial perturbation (bomb) in the main combustion chamber, i.e., dynamic combustion stability rating. No dynamic instabilities were observed in the TCA, although a few conditions were not bombed. Additional requirements, included to guard against spontaneous instability or rough combustion, were also investigated. Under certain conditions, discrete responses were observed in the dynamic pressure data. The discrete responses were of low amplitude and posed minimal risk to safe engine operability. Rough combustion analyses showed that all three engines met requirements for broad-banded frequency oscillations. Start and shutdown transient chug oscillations were also examined to assess the overall stability characteristics, with no major issues observed.

Morgan, C. J.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Influence of Global Climate on Freshwater Changes in Africa’s Largest Endorheic Basin Using Multi-Scaled Indicators

The poor investments in gauge measurements for hydro-climatic research in Africa has necessitated the need to investigate how decision makers can leverage on sophisticated spaceborne measurements to improve knowledge on surface water hydrology that can feed directly into water accounting processes and risk assessment from extreme droughts and its impacts. To demonstrate such potential, a suite of satellite earth observations (Sentinel-2, altimetry, Landsat, GRACE, and TRMM) and model data are combined with the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index to assess the impacts of global climate on freshwater dynamics over the LCB (Lake Chad basin), Africa’s largest endorheic basin. As shown in the results of this study, the significant relationship of climate modes (AMO; r = 0.68 and 0.59; and AMM; r = 0.2 and 0.47) with drought patterns in the LCB highlights the evidence of global climate influence in the region. The significant declines in drought extents and their intensities (2004 - 2015) over LCB coincide with the rise in surface water extent of the Lake Chad during the same period. Change detection analysis of open water features in the southern pool of Lake Chad during the 2015 - 2019 period shows that on the average, only 28.4% of inundated areas within the vicinity of the Lake persisted during the period. While the association of terrestrial water storage (TWS) with model-derived surface water storage (SWS) is strongest (r = 0.89) in the catchments that provide the most nourishment to the Lake Chad, the relationship of rainfall (2002 - 2017) with TWS (r = 0.85), model TWS (r = 0.87) and SWS (r = 0.88) confirm that the LCB’s hydrology is predominantly climate-driven. This notion is further reinforced as the predicted SWS over the LCB using a support vector machine regression scheme was found to be strongly correlated (r = 0.95 at = 0.05) with observed SWS.

Sentinel-2↗

NASA NTRS2022

Treatment of Launch Vehicle Flight Control Stability Margin Reductions for Crewed Missions with Emphasis on Slosh Dynamics

NESC’s perspective for crewed spaceflight: Acceptance of flight control gain/phase stability margin reductions from industry standards should be accompanied by an adequately extensive technical treatment, including: •Analyzing the fundamental physics involved, with applicable simulation tool verification (particularly if results are dissimilar among rules of thumb, linear tools, nonlinear analysis, and flight data) •Conducting sensitivity studies in time and frequency domains to analyze effects of possible parameter and system variations •Studying the effects of the consequence of instability associated with offending modes by running stressing cases in time domain •Assessing alternative flight control designs to demonstrate that present design appropriately balances overall vehicle risk (i.e., quantitatively delineate chosen tradeoffs between various stability margins and vehicle performance in the context of risk/consequence) Work presented here represents an example summary of expected engineering work to flight-certify crewed missions with unstable slosh modes and reduced stability margins

Launch Vehicle Flight Control↗

NASA NTRS2022

Idaho Wildfires II: Assessing the Relationship Between Drought Indicators and Wildfire Risk to Enhance Hazard Modeling and Inform Mitigation Planning

The western United States has experienced twenty years of increased and prolonged drought which have exacerbated wildfire hazards. These jeopardize population centers through increased risks to ecosystem services, local economies, and livelihoods. The Idaho Office of Emergency Management, Water Resources, and Department of Lands are seeking methods to dynamically monitor these conditions and update models that inform hazard mitigation planning and resource allocation. Towards this, these agencies partnered with NASA DEVELOP to produce drought-enhanced wildfire hazard models. Part of a two-term project, the two teams revised the state’s static wildfire hazard model with refined data layers and remotely-sensed data to reflect dynamic ecosystem responses to drought conditions and wildfire potential. Our team distinguished between rangeland and forestland ecosystems, and investigated relationships between drought metrics and vegetation condition using TerrSet Earth Trends Modeler. This analysis determined that total precipitation at a 5-month lag interval (r 2 = 0.72) along with the Evaporative Stress Index (r 2 = 0.69); and precipitation at a 5-month interval (r 2 = 0.42) were important drivers in rangeland and forestland, respectively. These driver variables were incorporated into a temporally dynamic wildfire hazard map. Our team used linear regression to correlate hazard ratings with wildfire frequency. For the year 2020, neither the enhanced hazard model (p < 0.10, r 2 = 0.01) nor the state’s static model (p < 0.05, r 2 = 0.03) were strongly correlated with actual wildfire frequency as they expressed an inverse relationship between wildfire hazard and frequency. This suggests wildfire occurrence is complex and not necessarily driven by the variables used.

Wildfire↗

NASA NTRS2015

An Integrated Physics-Based Risk Model for Assessing the Asteroid Threat

Although most asteroids and other near-Earth objects (NEOs) do not pose a threat to Earth’s inhabitants, impacts from objects that are just tens of meters in diameter can cause significant damage if they occur over a populated area. This paper forms the foundation of an effort at NASA Ames Research Center to quantify these risks and identify the greatest risk-driving parameters and uncertainties. An integrated risk model that couples dynamic probabilistic simulations of strike occurrences with physics-based models of NEO impact damage factors has been developed to generate casualty estimates for a range of NEO impact properties. Currently, the model focuses on the risk due to blast overpressure damage from airbursts and impacts on land. The model is first used to reproduce results from established sources, and then is extended to perform sensitivity studies that yield greater insights into risk driving parameters. Results show that meteor strength and entry angle play a role for small to mid-size NEOs, and that accounting for the specific target location significantly affects casualty estimates and dominates the risk. Future work will continue to refine and expand the models to better characterize key impact risk factors, include additional types of threats such as tsunamis and climate effects, and ultimately support assessments of potential asteroid mitigation strategies.

Asteroid Threat↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center Dynamics and Controls (530)

AFRC Controls and Dynamics Branch - Research Areas: - Traditional GN&C - Classical and advanced control algorithms - Risk based approaches for safety critical applications - Integration of novel sensors and sensor fusion (FOSS, LIDAR, etc.) - Trajectory optimization and control - Flight/System Dynamics - Equations of Motion and integrated modeling of vehicles and vehicle systems - Unique and novel vehicle dynamics - Methods for extracting relevant vehicle dynamic information from flight data - Human and vehicle interfaces and interactions - Handling Qualities and Pilot-in-the-loop oscillations (PIO) predictions and design metrics - Ride quality research - Autonomy - Novel algorithms, sensors, and sensor fusion - Bounding risk for testing automated systems - Pilot/Operator interactions - Engineering Support and Airworthiness Assessments - Aircraft modifications and experimental configurations

Chris Miller↗

NASA NTRS2024

Aeroelastic Stability Assessment Methodology and Application to Slat Noise Treatments on the High-Lift Common Research Model

This work supports a larger effort at NASA to reduce airframe noise and, thus, environmental noise around airports. The leading-edge slat of conventional high-lift systems is a prominent source of airframe noise, and two technologies were previously identified as promising for noise reduction without significant aerodynamic or weight penalty: the slat cove filler (SCF) and the slat gap filler (SGF). NASA fabricated a 10%-scale semispan aircraft model for wind tunnel testing based upon the High-Lift Common Research Model (CRM-HL). NASA embarked on a test campaign with the 10% CRM-HL to determine the noise reduction effectiveness and other performance metrics of 3D SCF and SGF treatments in flow conditions representative of flight. The highly flexible SCF and SGF treatments posed a risk to the model and aeroelastic instability would compromise research integrity, so aeroelastic stability assessment was required. This work briefly describes the 10% CRM-HL, design of the SCF and SGF treatments to the model, and supporting fluid structure interaction (FSI) research. Relations for static and dynamic aeroelastic similitude are then developed for convenience of reference, and simplifications are introduced of particular utility to the cases considered in this study. The similitude relations are employed to assess the stability of the treatments under wind tunnel flow conditions based upon known behaviors from the supporting research. It is shown that the treatments are safe for test under the anticipated wind tunnel flow conditions with significant margins/factors of safety. It is furthermore demonstrated that the SCF is more susceptible to aeroelastic instability than the SGF, which has implications for flight feasibility.

Similitude↗

NASA NTRS2019

Three CA-Related Covariance Issues and Their Solutions

This presentation addresses three issues that arise in the use of DoD-produced satellite state estimate covariances in the conjunction assessment process: the realism of the provided covariances, how to address correlated error between two satellites' covariance matrices, and how to proceed when a furnished covariance is non-positive-definite. To address the first, DoD has implemented a set of two "consider parameters" with which to alter/expand the covariance to account for atmospheric density forecast error and satellite frontal area uncertainty, the two largest sources of unmodeled position prediction error for LEO orbits; these values are governed by a satellite's orbital parameters and ballistic coefficient histories, as well as the current and predicted space weather situation. This approach substantially improves the realism of the covariance by accounting for expected prediction errors that are not part of the fit process that generates the covariance. The second issue of covariance correlation is a complicated one, but the main shared error sourceâ€”global atmospheric density error that is common to both satellites can be characterized and, through sensitivity vectors, quantified at the conjunction's time of closest approach and removed from the joint covariance, which is used in the CA probability of collision (Pc) calculation. Finally, while according to the orbit determination theory a non-positive-definite (NPD) covariance is not possible, numerical truncation and covariance interpolation can conspire to produce NPD results, which render the covariance unusable for certain CA risk assessment calculations, such as Monte Carlo Pc determination. Three similar techniques are profiled and the simplest of them recommended as a reasonable remediation technique when NPD covariances are encountered by CA practitioners.

Dynamic Consider Parameter↗

NASA NTRS1996

[Assessment of the risk factors for urolithiasis in cosmonauts during long flights]

Twelve cosmonauts flown aboard the Mir orbital station for 6-12 months and twelve candidates for cosmonauts were examined in an effort to determine a degree of urolithiasis risk. Prior to flight, on flight day 310 (in one cosmonaut) and after flight, the daily urinary excretion of the components influencing lithiasis formation was determined as well as a computer-aided calculation of urine saturation by lithogenic salts was performed (Ch. Pak, USA). In the in- and postflight periods, the greater number of indices under study were negatively changed in cosmonauts. Excretion dynamics of the lithogenesis inhibitors, i.e., citrates and magnesium, is of polar directionality. Frequency of deviations from the normal indices of urolithic risk in cosmonauts is primarily conditioned by low diuresis, urine supersaturation with calcium oxalate, undissociated uric acid, brushit, hypercalciuria, and changed pH.

Flight Experiment↗

NASA NTRS2024

NPCC4: Tail Risk, Climate Drivers of Extreme Heat, and New Methods for Extreme Event Projections

We summarize historic New York City (NYC) climate change trends and provide the latest scientific analyses on projected future changes based on a range of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Building on previous NPCC assessment reports, we describe new methods used to develop the projections of record for sea level rise, temperature, and precipitation for NYC, across multiple emissions pathways and analyze the issue of the “hot models” associated with the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and their potential impact on NYC's climate projections. We describe the state of the science on temperature variability within NYC and explain both the large-scale and regional dynamics that lead to extreme heat events, as well as the local physical drivers that lead to inequitable distributions of exposure to extreme heat. We identify three areas of tail risk and potential for its mischaracterization, including the physical processes of extreme events and the effects of a changing climate. Finally, we review opportunities for future research, with a focus on the hot model problem and the intersection of spatial resolution of projections with gaps in knowledge in the impacts of the climate signal on intraurban heat and heat exposure.

NPCC4↗

NASA NTRS1985

Electric power - Photovoltaic or solar dynamic?

The design of the power system for supplying the Space Station with insolation-generated electricity is the main Phase B task at NASA-Lewis Center. The advantages and limitations of two types of power systems, the photovoltaic arrays (PV) and the solar dynamic system (SD), are discussed from the points of view of cost, overall systems integration, and growth. Subsystems of each of these options are described, and a sketch of a projected SD system is shown. The PV technology is well developed and proven, but its low efficiency calls for solar arrays of large areas, which affect station dynamics, control, and drag compensation. The SD systems would be less costly to operate than VP, and are more efficient, needing less deployed area. The major drawback of the SD is its infancy. The conservative and forgiving designs for some of its components must still be created and tested, and the development risks assessed.

Thomas, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Trade Space Assessment for Human Exploration Mission Design

Many human space exploration mission architecture assessments have been performed over the years by diverse organizations and individuals. Direct comparison of metrics among these studies is extremely difficult due to widely varying assumptions involving projected technology readiness, mission goals, acceptable risk criteria, and socio-political environments. However, constant over the years have been the physical laws of celestial dynamics and rocket propulsion systems. A finite diverse yet finite architecture trade space should exist which captures methods of human exploration - particularly of the Moon and Mars - by delineating technical trades and cataloging the physically realizable options of each. A particular architectural approach should then have a traceable path through this "trade tree". It should be pointed out that not every permutation of paths will result in a physically realizable mission approach, but cataloging options that have been examined by past studies should help guide future analysis. This effort was undertaken in two phases by multi-center NASA working groups in the spring and summer of 2004 using more than thirty years of past studies to "flesh out" the Moon-Mars human exploration trade space. The results are presented, not as a "trade tree", which would be unwieldy, but as a "menu" of potential technical options as a function of mission phases. This is envisioned as a tool to aid future mission designers by offering guidance to relevant past analyses.

Joosten, B. Kent↗

NASA NTRS1993

Criteria for assessing problem solving and decision making in complex environments

Training crews to cope with unanticipated problems in high-risk, high-stress environments requires models of effective problem solving and decision making. Existing decision theories use the criteria of logical consistency and mathematical optimality to evaluate decision quality. While these approaches are useful under some circumstances, the assumptions underlying these models frequently are not met in dynamic time-pressured operational environments. Also, applying formal decision models is both labor and time intensive, a luxury often lacking in operational environments. Alternate approaches and criteria are needed. Given that operational problem solving and decision making are embedded in ongoing tasks, evaluation criteria must address the relation between those activities and satisfaction of broader task goals. Effectiveness and efficiency become relevant for judging reasoning performance in operational environments. New questions must be addressed: What is the relation between the quality of decisions and overall performance by crews engaged in critical high risk tasks? Are different strategies most effective for different types of decisions? How can various decision types be characterized? A preliminary model of decision types found in air transport environments will be described along with a preliminary performance model based on an analysis of 30 flight crews. The performance analysis examined behaviors that distinguish more and less effective crews (based on performance errors). Implications for training and system design will be discussed.

Orasanu, Judith↗

NASA NTRS2014

Assessing the Risk of Disc Heniation Related to Landing Impact Following Long-duration Spacecraft

Previous research has shown that crewmembers returning on the Space Shuttle have an increased incidence of herniated nucleus pulposus after spaceflight. This increased risk is thought to be related to disc volume expansion due to unloading and prolonged exposure to microgravity. Although there is an increased risk of disc herniation in Space Shuttle astronauts, it is unknown if dynamic landing loads further contribute to the risk of herniation. To determine if dynamic loads increase the risk of incidence, data from crewmembers (excluding cosmonauts) returning on the Soyuz spacecraft will be compared to Space Shuttle astronauts. These data will be obtained from the Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH) Project at NASA. Severity and incidence after spaceflight will be mined from the data, and statistical analyses will be used to determine if Soyuz crewmembers have a higher incidence of disc herniation than Space Shuttle crewmembers. The results are expected to show no difference between Space Shuttle and Soyuz crewmembers, indicating that higher dynamic loads on landing and long-duration spaceflight do not significantly increase the risk of disc herniation. If no difference is shown between the two crewmember populations, then disc volume expansion due to microgravity does not significantly increase the risk of injury due to dynamic loads for deconditioned crewmembers. Any risk associated with deconditioning would be primarily due to bone structure changes and resulting bone strength changes. This study is an important first step in determining whether the spinal disc plays a role in injury due to dynamic loads.

Somers, J. T.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Decision Making in Action: Applying Research to Practice

The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers, aviation, and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment: Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multi-dimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that all crew members have essential information, but it also regulates and coordinates crew actions and is the medium of collective thinking in response to a problem. This presentation will examine the relations between leadership, communication, decision making and overall crew performance. Implications of these findings for training will be discussed.

Orasanu, Judith↗