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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2010

Dynamics of Ring Current and Electric Fields in the Inner Magnetosphere During Disturbed Periods: CRCM-BATS-R-US Coupled Model

We present simulation results from a one-way coupled global MHD model (Block-Adaptive-Tree Solar-Wind Roe-Type Upwind Scheme, BATS-R-US) and kinetic ring current models (Comprehensive Ring Current Model, CRCM, and Fok Ring Current, FokRC). The BATS-R-US provides the CRCM/FokRC with magnetic field information and plasma density/temperature at the polar CRCM/FokRC boundary. The CRCM uses an electric potential from the BATS-R-US ionospheric solver at the polar CRCM boundary in order to calculate the electric field pattern consistent with the CRCM pressure distribution. The FokRC electric field potential is taken from BATS-R-US ionospheric solver everywhere in the modeled region, and the effect of Region II currents is neglected. We show that for an idealized case with southward-northward-southward Bz IMF turning, CRCM-BATS-R-US reproduces well known features of inner magnetosphere electrodynamics: strong/weak convection under the southward/northward Bz; electric field shielding/overshielding/penetration effects; an injection during the substorm development; Subauroral Ion Drift or Polarization Jet (SAID/PJ) signature in the dusk sector. Furthermore, we find for the idealized case that SAID/PJ forms during the substorm growth phase, and that substorm injection has its own structure of field-aligned currents which resembles a substorm current wedge. For an actual event (12 August 2000 storm), we calculate ENA emissions and compare with Imager for Magnetopause-to-Aurora Global Exploration/High Energy Neutral Atom data. The CRCM-BATS-R-US reproduces both the global morphology of ring current and the fine structure of ring current injection. The FokRC-BATS-R-US shows the effect of a realistic description of Region II currents in ring current-MHD coupled models.

Buzulukova, N.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Reliability Assessment of Safety-Critical Network Communication in a Digitalized Nuclear Power Plant

In analog instrumentation and control (I and C) systems for nuclear power plants (NPPs), most connections are comprised of hardwired point-to-point types. Since they are based on analog technologies, they are fragile to noise and require analog-to-digital conversion time. Therefore, many NPPs have adopted communication network for the exchange of safety-critical data between programmable logic controllers (PLCs) in digital I and C systems to effectively accommodate a huge number of field controllers. However, the primary issue of digital network communication in a safety-critical system involves potential hazards, such as partial or total loss of communication between PLCs, which may result in a failure of safety critical signal generation when it is needed. Therefore, the probability that a safety-critical system in digitalized NPP becomes unsafe due to a network failure must be evaluated to quantify the risk of digital I and C system. In Korea, the Engineered Safety Feature-Component Control System (ESF-CCS) was developed as one of the digital safety-critical system in Advanced Power Reactor- 1400 (APR-1400). The function of a digital engineered safety feature (ESF) actuation system and field actuator controllers of conventional NPPs are performed by the ESF-CCS. In this system, safety-critical network, High Reliable- Safety Data Network (HR-SDN), was employed for the safety-critical data transmission from group controllers (GCs) to loop controllers (LCs). In this study, a framework for assessing the reliability of a HR-SDN network communication between GCs and LCs in the ESF-CCS in addition to a fault-tree model for ESF components considering network failure between GCs and LCs were developed to assess the plant risk effect of a newly developed digitalized ESF-CCS. Based on the case studies and cut set analysis, the risk effect of network failure on plant risk and the important risk contributors of network failure were quantitatively addressed. A framework for identifying the potential hazardous states of network communication in the ESFCCS was proposed. In addition, a fault-tree model for network communication failure was developed to estimate the risk effects of network failure between the GCs and LCs on ESF-CCS signal failure. The developed fault-tree model was then applied to several case studies. The fault-tree model of ESF-CCS signal failure for ESF components required for various mitigation actions regarding NPP DBAs was designed by considering the identified hazardous states of network failure that would result in a failure to provide input signals to the corresponding LC. As a sensitivity study, three case studies were performed based on the periodic test methods for hardware components in HR-SDN module and their test intervals in this study. The quantitative results for three case studies demonstrated that the probability of overall network communication failure, which was calculated as the sum of the failure probability associated with each failure cause, contributed up to 1.58% on the Small-LOCA CD frequency. The results also revealed the important basic events related to network failure in the case studies which included CCF of hardware and software in HR-SDN module. This study is expected to provide insight into the development of the fault-tree model for the network failure in digital I and C system and into the quantification of the risk effect of network failure for safety-critical data transmission in NPPs. As a further study, the risk effects of network failure in the ESF-CCS on the plant risk can be estimated in a more detailed manner by analyzing the failure modes and causes in a sub-component level and the fault detection coverage of the fault tolerance techniques for network failure implemented in ESF-CCS after the detailed configuration of ESF-CCS is decided. In terms of the failure of manual ESF actuation, the relationship among the human action failures must be investigated to consider multiple human error condition since ESF-CCS provides multiple manual actuation to assure the diversity of the system. Since the conventional HEP method cannot accommodate the multiple conditions in a fault tree, condition-based human reliability assessment (CBHRA) method or the dynamic human reliability modeling approach can be applied to include a complex relationship among the automated safety signal generation and the human operator's manual actuation, avoiding the optimistic estimation of HEP of the human action failure.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS2022

Spatial Downscaling of GOES-R Land Surface Temperature over Urban Regions: A Case Study for New York City

The surface urban heat island (SUHI) effect is among the major environmental issues encountered in urban regions. To better predict the dynamics of the SUHI and its impacts on extreme heat events, an accurate characterization of the surface energy balance in urban regions is needed. However, the ability to improve understanding of the surface energy balance is limited by the heterogeneity of surfaces in urban areas. This study aims to enhance the understanding of the urban surface energy budget through an innovation in the use of land surface temperature (LST) observations from remote sensing satellites. A LST database with 5–min temporal and 30–m spatial resolution is developed by spatial downscaling of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites—R (GOES–R) series LST product over New York City (NYC). The new downscaling method, known as the Spatial Downscaling Method (SDM), benefits from the fine spatial resolution of Landsat–8 and high temporal resolution of GOES–R, and considers the temporal variation in LST for each land cover type separately. Preliminary results show that the SDM can reproduce the temporal and spatial variability of LST over NYC reasonably well and the downscaled LST has a spatial root mean square error (RMSE) of the order of 2 K as compared to the independent Landsat–8 observations. The SDM shows smaller RMSE of 1.93 K over the tree canopy land cover, whereas RMSE is 2.19 K for built–up areas. The overall results indicate that the SDM has potential to estimate LST at finer spatial and temporal scales over urban regions.

land surface temperature↗
DOE OSTI2021

AI-Guided Reasoning-Based Operator Support System for the Nuclear Power Plant Management

The Decision-making process in the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) control room faces some challenges: operator incomplete knowledge, insufficient time for responding to the highly dynamic events, and a large number of indicators to monitor. Because of the complexity of the NPP system, it is hard to pre-plan all the failures/mitigative actions. An intelligent operator support system is vital to mitigate these shortcomings. In this paper, an AI declarative approach (Answer Set Programming (ASP)) is employed to represent our knowledge of the nuclear power plant in the form of logic rules. This represented knowledge is structured to form a reasoning-based operator support system. When an incident occurs, this ASP-based reasoning support system is demonstrated to be capable of fault identification (diagnosis), informing the operator of different scenarios and consequences, and generating the control options (decision making).

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-agent motion planning with sporadic communications for collision avoidance

Here, a novel multi-vehicle motion planning and collision avoidance algorithm is proposed and analyzed. The algorithm aims to reduce the amount of onboard calculations and inter-agent communications needed for each vehicle to successfully navigate through an environment with static obstacles and reach their goals. To this end, each agent first calculates a path to the goal by means of an asymptotically optimal rapidly-exploring random tree (RRT*) with respect to the static obstacles. Then, other agents are treated as dynamic obstacles and potential collisions are determined by means of collision cones. Collision cones depend on the position and velocity from other agents and are grown conservatively between inter-agent communications. Based on the available information, each agent determines if a deconfliction maneuver is needed, if it can continue along its current path, or if communication is needed to make a decision about a conflict. With probability one, our algorithm guarantees that the agents keep from colliding with each other. Under an assumption on the existence of a solution for a vehicle to its goal, this algorithm also solves the planning problem with probability one. Simulations illustrate a group of agents successfully reaching their goal configurations and examine how the uncertainty affects the communication frequency of the multi-agent system.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
NASA NTRS2013

Daily MODIS 500 m Reflectance Anisotropy Direct Broadcast (DB) Products for Monitoring Vegetation Phenology Dynamics

Land surface vegetation phenology is an efficient bio-indicator for monitoring ecosystem variation in response to changes in climatic factors. The primary objective of the current article is to examine the utility of the daily MODIS 500 m reflectance anisotropy direct broadcast (DB) product for monitoring the evolution of vegetation phenological trends over selected crop, orchard, and forest regions. Although numerous model-fitted satellite data have been widely used to assess the spatio-temporal distribution of land surface phenological patterns to understand phenological process and phenomena, current efforts to investigate the details of phenological trends, especially for natural phenological variations that occur on short time scales, are less well served by remote sensing challenges and lack of anisotropy correction in satellite data sources. The daily MODIS 500 m reflectance anisotropy product is employed to retrieve daily vegetation indices (VI) of a 1 year period for an almond orchard in California and for a winter wheat field in northeast China, as well as a 2 year period for a deciduous forest region in New Hampshire, USA. Compared with the ground records from these regions, the VI trajectories derived from the cloud-free and atmospherically corrected MODIS Nadir BRDF (bidirectional reflectance distribution function) adjusted reflectance (NBAR) capture not only the detailed footprint and principal attributes of the phenological events (such as flowering and blooming) but also the substantial inter-annual variability. This study demonstrates the utility of the daily 500 m MODIS reflectance anisotropy DB product to provide daily VI for monitoring and detecting changes of the natural vegetation phenology as exemplified by study regions comprising winter wheat, almond trees, and deciduous forest.

Vegetation↗
DOE OSTI2016

Comparison of tree transpiration under wet and dry canopy conditions in a Costa Rican premontane tropical forest

Spatial and temporal variation in wet canopy conditions following precipitation events can influence processes such as transpiration and photosynthesis, which can be additionally enhanced as upper canopy leaves dry more rapidly than the understory following each event. As part of a larger study aimed at improving land surface modelling of evapotranspiration processes in wet tropical forests, we compared transpiration among trees with exposed and shaded crowns under both wet and dry canopy conditions in central Costa Rica, which has an average 420 mm annual rainfall. Transpiration was estimated for 5 months using 43 sap flux sensors in eight dominant, ten midstory and eight suppressed trees in a mature forest stand surrounding a 40-m tower equipped with micrometeorological sensors. Dominant trees were 13% of the plot's trees and contributed around 76% to total transpiration at this site, whereas midstory and suppressed trees contributed 18 and 5%, respectively. After accounting for vapour pressure deficit and solar radiation, leaf wetness was a significant driver of sap flux, reducing it by as much as 28%. Under dry conditions, sap flux rates (J s ) of dominant trees were similar to midstory trees and were almost double that of suppressed trees. On wet days, all trees had similarly low J s . As expected, semi-dry conditions (dry upper canopy) led to higher J s in dominant trees than midstory, which had wetter leaves, but semi-dry conditions only reduced total stand transpiration slightly and did not change the relative proportion of transpiration from dominant and midstory. Thus, models that better capture forest stand wet–dry canopy dynamics and individual tree water use strategies are needed to improve accuracy of predictions of water recycling over tropical forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Drivers and ecological impacts of a wildfire outbreak in the southern Appalachian Mountains after decades of fire exclusion

During one of the warmest and driest droughts of the last century, the southern Appalachian Mountains experienced a regional outbreak of over a dozen large wildfires in late fall of 2016. We provide a synthesis of long-term forest changes leading up to the 2016 wildfires, examine the climatic setting and patterns of burn severity in relationship to topography, and discuss the ecological and management implications of these and future fires. During the pre- and post-European settlement periods, frequent low- and mixed-severity wildfires interacted with complex topographic gradients and maintained heterogenous landscapes dominated by several species of oak (Quercus spp.), pine (Pinus spp.), and the American chestnut (Castanea dentata). Land-use changes associated with European settlement, loss of the American chestnut, and 20th century fire exclusion resulted in large scale shifts towards mesic, fire-intolerant species (i.e. mesophication). Wildfire activity began increasing in the early 1980s, but most fires in the region are small (<1,000 ha). In Fall of 2016, deciduous tree leaf fall occurred concurrently with a period of anomalously dry and warm weather, creating ideal conditions for fire ignition and spread. Thousands of ignitions across the region strained suppression resources and eight fires grew to greater than 5,000 ha. The 2016 fires were larger and burned more area than in the previous three decades combined. In one unique landscape setting, the Chimney Tops 2 Fire, a synoptic wind event drove extreme fire behavior and burned large, high-severity patches resulting in devastating effects in the wildland urban interface. However, immediate post-fire burn severity mosaics for other fires were composed primarily of low- (73 %) and moderate-severity (21 %) fire effects. High-severity fire comprised only 6 % of the area burned, and occurred mostly on steep upper slopes and ridges on south-facing aspects, reflecting the importance of bottom-up topographic drivers in this region. Although the fires will likely enhance biodiversity by restoring fire-dependent species and creating early seral habitat, invasions of non-native plant species, delayed mortality of mature pines and oaks, and rapid re-sprouting of pyrophyllic shrubs pose significant management challenges. Although similar large fire outbreaks may become more common under future climatic conditions, they are unlikely to reverse the effects of mesophication and significantly alter forest dynamics at broad spatial scales. Furthermore, the 2016 fires exposed the vulnerability of the region to wildfire during acute fall drought and demonstrate the potential ecological effects of future wildfires in mixed pine-hardwood landscapes of the southern Appalachians.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Increased Occurrence of Large–Scale Windthrows Across the Amazon Basin

Convective storms with strong downdrafts create windthrows: snapped and uprooted trees that locally alter the structure, composition, and carbon balance of forests. Comparing Landsat imagery from subsequent years, we documented temporal and spatial variation in the occurrence of large (≥30 ha) windthrows across the Amazon basin from 1985 to 2020. Over 33 individual years, we detected 3179 large windthrows. Windthrow density was greatest in the central and western Amazon regions, with ~33% of all events occurring in ~3% of the monitored area. Return intervals for large windthrows in the same location of these “hotspot” regions are centuries to millennia, while over the rest of the Amazon they are >10,000 years. Our data demonstrate a nearly 4–fold increase in windthrow number and affected area between 1985 (78 windthrows and 6,900 ha) and 2020 (264 events and 32,170 ha), with more events of >500 ha size since 1990. Such extremely large events (>500 ha up to 2,543 ha) are responsible for interannual variation in the overall median (84 ± 5.2 ha; ±95% CI) and mean (147 ± 13 ha) windthrow area, but we did not find significant temporal trends in the size distribution of windthrows with time. Our results document increased damage from convective storms over the past 40 years in the Amazon, filling a gap in temporal records for tropical regions. Our publicly accessible large windthrow database provides a valuable tool for exploring dynamic conditions leading to damaging storms and their ecological impact on Amazon forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dynamic subcanopy leaf traits drive resistance of net primary production across a disturbance severity gradient

Across the globe, the forest carbon sink is increasingly vulnerable to an expanding array of low- to moderate-severity disturbances. However, some forest ecosystems exhibit functional resistance (i.e., the capacity of ecosystems to continue functioning as usual) following disturbances such as extreme weather events and insect or fungal pathogen outbreaks. Unlike severe disturbances (e.g., stand-replacing wildfires), moderate severity disturbances do not always result in near-term declines in forest production because of the potential for compensatory growth, including enhanced subcanopy production. Community-wide shifts in subcanopy plant functional traits, prompted by disturbance-driven environmental change, may play a key mechanistic role in resisting declines in net primary production (NPP) up to thresholds of canopy loss. However, the temporal dynamics of these shifts, as well as the upper limits of disturbance for which subcanopy production can compensate, remain poorly characterized. In this study, we leverage a 4-year dataset from an experimental forest disturbance in northern Michigan to assess subcanopy community trait shifts as well as their utility in predicting ecosystem NPP resistance across a wide range of implemented disturbance severities. Through mechanical girdling of stems, we achieved a gradient of severity from 0% (i.e., control) to 45, 65, and 85% targeted gross canopy defoliation, replicated across four landscape ecosystems broadly representative of the Upper Great Lakes ecoregion. We found that three of four examined subcanopy community weighted mean (CWM) traits including leaf photosynthetic rate (p = 0.04), stomatal conductance (p = 0.07), and the red edge normalized difference vegetation index (p < 0.0001) shifted rapidly following disturbance but before widespread changes in subcanopy light environment triggered by canopy tree mortality. Surprisingly, stimulated subcanopy production fully compensated for upper canopy losses across our gradient of experimental severities, achieving complete resistance (i.e., no significant interannual differences from control) of whole ecosystem NPP even in the 85% disturbance treatment. Additionally, we identified a probable mechanistic switch from nutrient-driven to light-driven trait shifts as disturbance progressed. Our findings suggest that remotely sensed traits such as the red edge normalized difference vegetation index (reNDVI) could be particularly sensitive and robust predictors of production response to disturbance, even across compositionally diverse forests. The potential of leaf spectral indices to predict post-disturbance functional resistance is promising given the capabilities of airborne to satellite remote sensing. We conclude that dynamic functional trait shifts following disturbance can be used to predict production response across a wide range of disturbance severities.

resistance↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessing impacts of selective logging on water, energy, and carbon budgets and ecosystem dynamics in Amazon forests using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator

Abstract. Tropical forest degradation from logging, fire, and fragmentation not only alters carbon stocks and carbon fluxes, but also impacts physical land surface properties such as albedo and roughness length. Such impacts are poorly quantified to date due to difficulties in accessing and maintaining observational infrastructures, as well as the lack of proper modeling tools for capturing the interactions among biophysical properties, ecosystem demography, canopy structure, and biogeochemical cycling in tropical forests. As a first step to address these limitations, we implemented a selective logging module into the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) by mimicking the ecological, biophysical, and biogeochemical processes following a logging event. The model can specify the timing and aerial extent of logging events, splitting the logged forest patch into disturbed and intact patches; determine the survivorship of cohorts in the disturbed patch; and modifying the biomass and necromass (total mass of coarse woody debris and litter) pools following logging. We parameterized the logging module to reproduce a selective logging experiment at the Tapajós National Forest in Brazil and benchmarked model outputs against available field measurements. Our results suggest that the model permits the coexistence of early and late successional functional types and realistically characterizes the seasonality of water and carbon fluxes and stocks, the forest structure and composition, and the ecosystem succession following disturbance. However, the current version of FATES overestimates water stress in the dry season and therefore fails to capture seasonal variation in latent and sensible heat fluxes. Moreover, we observed a bias towards low stem density and leaf area when compared to observations, suggesting that improvements are needed in both carbon allocation and establishment of trees. The effects of logging were assessed by different logging scenarios to represent reduced impact and conventional logging practices, both with high and low logging intensities. The model simulations suggest that in comparison to old-growth forests the logged forests rapidly recover water and energy fluxes in 1 to 3 years. In contrast, the recovery times for carbon stocks, forest structure, and composition are more than 30 years depending on logging practices and intensity. This study lays the foundation to simulate land use change and forest degradation in FATES, which will be an effective tool to directly represent forest management practices and regeneration in the context of Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Warming increased bark beetle-induced tree mortality by 30% during an extreme drought in California

Quantifying the responses of forest disturbances to climate warming is critical to our understanding of carbon cycles and energy balances of the Earth system. The impact of warming on bark beetle outbreaks is complex as multiple drivers of these events may respond differently to warming. Using a novel model of bark beetle biology and host tree interactions, we assessed how contemporary warming affected western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis) populations and mortality of its host, ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), during an extreme drought in the Sierra Nevada, California, United States. When compared with the field data, our model captured the western pine beetle flight timing and rates of ponderosa pine mortality observed during the drought. In assessing the influence of temperature on western pine beetles, we found that contemporary warming increased the development rate of the western pine beetle and decreased the overwinter mortality rate of western pine beetle larvae leading to increased population growth during periods of lowered tree defense. We attribute a 29.9% (95% CI: 29.4%–30.2%) increase in ponderosa pine mortality during drought directly to increases in western pine beetle voltinism (i.e., associated with increased development rates of western pine beetle) and, to a much lesser extent, reductions in overwintering mortality. These findings, along with other studies, suggest each degree (°C) increase in temperature may have increased the number of ponderosa pine killed by upwards of 35%–40% °C-1 if the effects of compromised tree defenses (15%–20%) and increased western pine beetle populations (20%) are additive. Due to the warming ability to considerably increase mortality through the mechanism of bark beetle populations, models need to consider climate's influence on both host tree stress and the bark beetle population dynamics when determining future levels of tree mortality.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Mexican Drought Atlas: Tree-Ring Reconstructions of the Soil Moisture Balance During the Late Pre-Hispanic, Colonial, and Modern Eras

Mexico has suffered a long history and prehistory of severe sustained drought. Drought over Mexico is modulated by ocean-atmospheric variability in the Atlantic and Pacific, raising the possibility for long-range seasonal climate forecasting, which could help mediate the economic and social impacts of future dry spells. The instrumental record of Mexican climate is very limited before 1920, but tree-ring chronologies developed from old-growth forests in Mexico can provide an excellent proxy representation of the spatial pattern and intensity of past moisture regimes useful for the analysis of climate dynamics and climate impacts. The Mexican Drought Atlas (MXDA) has been developed from an extensive network of 252 climate sensitive tree-ring chronologies in and near Mexico. The MXDA reconstructions extend from 1400 CE-2012 and were calibrated with the instrumental summer (JJA) self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) on a 0.5deg latitude/longitude grid extending over land areas from 14 to 34degN and 75-120degW using Ensemble Point-by-Point Regression (EPPR) for the 1944-1984 period. The grid point reconstructions were validated for the period 1920-1943 against instrumental gridded scPDSI values based on the fewer weather station observations available during that interval. The MXDA provides a new spatial perspective on the historical impacts of moisture extremes over Mexico during the past 600-years, including the Aztec Drought of One Rabbit in 1454, the drought of El Ano de Hambre in 1785-1786, and the drought that preceded the Mexican Revolution of 1909-1910. The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important ocean-atmospheric forcing of moisture variability detected with the MXDA. In fact, the reconstructions suggest that the strongest central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) teleconnection to the soil moisture balance over North America may reside in northern Mexico. This ENSO signal has stronger and more time-stable correlations than computed for either the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation or Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The extended Multivariate ENSO Index is most highly correlated with reconstructed scPDSI over northern Mexico, where warm events favor moist conditions during the winter, spring, and early summer. This ENSO teleconnection to northern Mexico has been strong over the past 150 years, but it has been comparatively weak and non-stationary in the MXDA over central and southern Mexico where eastern tropical Pacific and Caribbean/tropical Atlantic SSTs seem to be more important. The ENSO teleconnection to northern Mexico is weaker in the available instrumental PDSI, but analyses based on the millennium climate simulations with the Community Earth System Model suggest that the moisture balance during the winter, spring, and early summer over northern Mexico may indeed be particularly sensitive to ENSO forcing. Nationwide drought is predicted to become more common with anthropogenic climate change, but the MXDA reconstructions indicate that intense "All Mexico" droughts have been rare over the past 600 years and their frequency does not appear to have increased substantially in recent decades.

El Nino↗
NASA NTRS2008

Potential Use of a Bayesian Network for Discriminating Flash Type from Future GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data

Continuous monitoring of the ratio of cloud flashes to ground flashes may provide a better understanding of thunderstorm dynamics, intensification, and evolution, and it may be useful in severe weather warning. The National Lighting Detection Network TM (NLDN) senses ground flashes with exceptional detection efficiency and accuracy over most of the continental United States. A proposed Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) aboard the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) will look at the western hemisphere, and among the lightning data products to be made available will be the fundamental optical flash parameters for both cloud and ground flashes: radiance, area, duration, number of optical groups, and number of optical events. Previous studies have demonstrated that the optical flash parameter statistics of ground and cloud lightning, which are observable from space, are significantly different. This study investigates a Bayesian network methodology for discriminating lightning flash type (ground or cloud) using the lightning optical data and ancillary GOES-R data. A Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) is set up with lightning as a "root" and data observed by GLM as the "leaves." This allows for a direct calculation of the joint probability distribution function for the lighting type and radiance, area, etc. Initially, the conditional probabilities that will be required can be estimated from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) together with NLDN data. Directly manipulating the joint distribution will yield the conditional probability that a lightning flash is a ground flash given the evidence, which consists of the observed lightning optical data [and possibly cloud data retrieved from the GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) in a more mature Bayesian network configuration]. Later, actual GLM and NLDN data can be used to refine the estimates of the conditional probabilities used in the model; i.e., the Bayesian network is a learning network. Methods for efficient calculation of the conditional probabilities (e.g., an algorithm using junction trees), finding data conflicts, goodness of fit, and dealing with missing data will also be addressed.

Solakiewiz, Richard↗
DOE OSTI2014

The RISMC Approach to Perform Advanced PRA Analyses

The existing fleet of nuclear power plants is in the process of extending its lifetime and increasing the power generated from these plants via power uprates. In order to evaluate the impact of these two factors on the safety of the plant, the RISMC Pathway aims to develop simulation-based tools and methods to assess risks for existing nuclear power plants in order to optimize safety. This pathway, by developing new methods, is extending the state-of-the-practice methods that have been traditionally based on logic structures such as Event-Trees and Fault-Trees. These static types of models mimic system response in an inductive and deductive way respectively, yet are restrictive in the ways they can represent spatial and temporal constructs. RISMC analyses are performed by using a combination of thermal-hydraulic codes and a stochastic analysis tool currently under development at the Idaho National Laboratory, i.e. RAVEN. This paper presents a case study in order to show the capabilities of the RISMC methodology to assess impact of power uprate of a boiling water reactor system during a station blackout accident scenario. We employ the system simulator code, RELAP5-3D, coupled with RAVEN which perform the stochastic analysis. Our analysis is in fact performed by: 1) sampling values of a set of parameters from the uncertainty space of interest, 2) simulating the system behavior for that specific set of parameter values and 3) analyzing the set of simulation runs. Results obtained give a detailed investigation of the issues associated with a plant power uprate including the effects of station blackout accident scenarios. We are able to quantify how the timing of specific events was impacted by a higher nominal reactor core power. Such safety insights can provide useful information to the decision makers to perform risk informed margins management.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hot Droughts and Forest Tree Dynamics in the Amazon - Statistical Models, Scripts, Data, and Outputs

This package contains data, outputs, equations, and R scripts for analyses for manuscript entitled "Hot droughts in the Amazon: A window to a future hypertropical climate" by J. Chambers et al., in particular it contains statistical models and analyses for the INPA BIONTE tree mortality study. The Models folder contains details for all statistical models in PDF files. The Scripts folder contains the R scripts for Bayesian Hierarchical Models (two text files) and SEMs (one text file) are separate and reasonably annotated. All data associated with these scripts are in the data folder. The Data folder contains two of the three CSV files used for the analyses and are called by the R scripts. Two of them are part of published datasets (`BIONTE_mortality-rates.csv` from Lima et al. 2024, DOI:10.15486/ngt/1898910 and `SPEI.csv` from Pastorello et al. 2023 DOI:10.15486/ngt/1958257) and also provided in this package for convenience (please see the corresponding datasets for usage and citation terms). The third dataset (`BIONTE_gapfilled_wd.csv`) contains sensitive information and can be obtained by contacting the manuscript lead author. The Outputs folder contains the two output files that provide extra information about the analyses. The file `figuresFeb2025d.pdf` contains all the figures from the manuscript - captions are in the manuscript. The file `ChambersMS.pdf` contains primary results from Bayesian statistical models, regression analyses, and validation steps applied to the tree mortality data from the INPA experiments. The document includes visual summaries, model diagnostics, and leave-one-out (LOO) validation results. A breakdown of file contents can be found in the README file that is part of this package.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Calculation of narrower confidence intervals for tree mortality rates when we know nothing but the location of the death/survival events

Abstract Many ecological applications, like the study of mortality rates, require the estimation of proportions and confidence intervals for them. The traditional way of doing this applies the binomial distribution, which describes the outcome of a series of Bernoulli trials. This distribution assumes that observations are independent and the probability of success is the same for all the individual observations. Both assumptions are obviously false in many cases. I show how to apply bootstrap and the Poisson binomial distribution (a generalization of the binomial distribution) to the estimation of proportions. Any information at the individual level would result in better (narrower) confidence intervals around the estimation of proportions. As a case study, I applied this method to the calculation of mortality rates in a forest plot of tropical trees in Lambir Hills National Park, Malaysia. I calculated central estimates and 95% confidence intervals for species‐level mortality rates for 1,007 tree species. I used a very simple model of spatial dependence in survival to estimate individual‐level risk of mortality. The results obtained by accounting for heterogeneity in individual‐level risk of mortality were comparable to those obtained with the binomial distribution in terms of central estimates, but the precision increased in virtually all cases, with an average reduction in the width of the confidence interval of ~20%. Spatial information allows the estimation of individual‐level probabilities of survival, and this increases the precision in the estimates of mortality rates. The general method described here, with modifications, could be applied to reduce uncertainty in the estimation of proportions related to any spatially structured phenomenon with two possible outcomes. More sophisticated approaches can yield better estimates of individual‐level mortality and thus narrower confidence intervals.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗