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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

A functional global sensitivity measure and efficient reliability sensitivity analysis with respect to statistical parameters

Sensitivity analysis and reliability assessment are two important aspects of structural and system safety. Epistemic uncertainty with respect to probabilistic model of input parameters due to lack of knowledge is present in many scarce-data applications and complicates the characterization of uncertainty in model response. In this article, we present two importance measures to evaluate the impact of distribution parameters on the probability distribution function (PDF) of the output and the failure probability. The epistemic uncertainty associated with the distribution parameters is modeled as random variables. Additionally, a modified extended polynomial chaos expansion (MEPCE) approach is introduced in which aleatory and epistemic random variables are modeled and propagated simultaneously while allowing the separate assessment for any single epistemic variable. A MEPCE-based kernel density estimation (KDE) construction provides a composite map from each epistemic variable to the response PDF. The functional global sensitivity index of the PDF with respect to the distribution parameters is thus derived, as a function of output, which is both more informative and more efficient than standard scalar sensitivity measures. Reliability sensitivity indices can be readily evaluated by integrating the global sensitivity index function over the failure zone. Three illustrative examples are used to demonstrate the proposed methodology.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1988

On the problem of modeling for parameter identification in distributed structures

Structures are often characterized by parameters, such as mass and stiffness, that are spatially distributed. Parameter identification of distributed structures is subject to many of the difficulties involved in the modeling problem, and the choice of the model can greatly affect the results of the parameter identification process. Analogously to control spillover in the control of distributed-parameter systems, identification spillover is shown to exist as well and its effect is to degrade the parameter estimates. Moreover, as in modeling by the Rayleigh-Ritz method, it is shown that, for a Rayleigh-Ritz type identification algorithm, an inclusion principle exists in the identification of distributed-parameter systems as well, so that the identified natural frequencies approach the actual natural frequencies monotonically from above.

Norris, Mark A.↗
NASA NTRS1988

A perturbation technique for parameter identification in distributed structures

Structures are often characterized by parameters, such as mass and stiffness, that are spatially distributed. Parameter identification of distributed structures is subject to many of the difficulties involved in the modeling problem, and the choice of the model can greatly affect the results of the parameter identification process. Analogously to control spillover in the control of distributed-parameter systems, identification spillover is shown to exist as well and its effect is to degrade the parameter estimates. Moreover, as in modeling by the Rayleigh-Ritz method, it is shown that, for a Rayleigh-Ritz type identification algorithm, an inclusion principle exists in the identification of distributed-parameter systems as well, so that the identified natural frequencies approach the actual natural frequencies monotonically from above.

Meirovitch, L.↗
NASA NTRS1989

On the problem of modeling for parameter identification in distributed structures

Structures are often characterized by parameters, such as mass and stiffness, that are spatially distributed. Parameter identification of distributed structures is subject to many of the difficulties involved in the modeling problem, and the choice of the model can greatly affect the results of the parameter identification process. Analogously to control spillover in the control of distributed-parameter systems, identification spillover is shown to exist as well and its effect is to degrade the parameter estimates. Moreover, as in modeling by the Rayleigh-Ritz method, it is shown that, for a Rayleigh-Ritz type identification algorithm, an inclusion principle exists in the identification of distributed-parameter systems as well, so that the identified natural frequencies approach the actual natural frequencies monotonically from above.

Norris, Mark A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Preliminary Results on Bayesian Inverse UQ for OECD/NEA WPNCS Subgroup 14 Benchmark Exercise for Error Recovery and Experimental Coverage

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Working Party on Nucelar Criticality Safety (WPNCS) has proposed a benchmark exercise representative of neutronic behavior in criticality experiments. Here, the goal is to develop confidence in data assimilation techniques used to adjust nuclear data. Participants are given synthetic experimental models with associated measured data and asked to estimate the model parameters given the model and measurements as well as provide predictions for separate application models. In this work, we performed data assimilation using Bayesian inverse Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) with machine learning surrogate models to produce posterior parameter distributions for the requested parameters and posterior predictive distributions for the requested responses. Several experimental models are shown to insufficiently inform the posterior parameter distributions for the applications involved. However, given sufficient experimental data, posterior parameter estimates yielded reduced uncertainty in the response predictions of interest while covering the experimental data.

Bayesian Inference↗
NASA NTRS1981

Problems in the application of multivariable adaptive control to flexible spacecraft

The present investigation is concerned with the application of adaptive control to distributed parameter systems (DPS) which arise in the modeling of large space structures (LSS). Distributed parameter and multivariable models for LSS are introduced and the decoupled adaptive control of such models is considered. Possibilities to achieve adaptive control in connection with a more general model are also examined. It is found that, in concept, adaptive control appears to be a natural choice for solving attitude and shape perturbation problems in LSS. However, due to the distributed parameter nature of such structures and the current lack of experience in their control, the problem must be phrased in general terms which are very difficult to deal with. In particular, detailed a priori plant knowledge is currently required so that decoupling and/or reduced order models of sufficient accuracy can be provided.

Lawrence, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Simultaneous Retrieval of Aerosol and Cloud Properties During the MILAGRO Field Campaign

Estimation of Direct Climate Forcing (DCF) due to aerosols in cloudy areas has historically been a difficult task, mainly because of a lack of appropriate measurements. Recently, passive remote sensing instruments have been developed that have the potential to retrieve both cloud and aerosol properties using polarimetric, multiple view angle, and multi spectral observations, and therefore determine DCF from aerosols above clouds. One such instrument is the Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP), an airborne prototype of a sensor on the NASA Glory satellite, which unfortunately failed to reach orbit during its launch in March of 2011. In the spring of 2006, the RSP was deployed on an aircraft based in Veracruz, Mexico, as part of the Megacity Initiative: Local and Global Research Observations (MILAGRO) field campaign. On 13 March, the RSP over flew an aerosol layer lofted above a low altitude marine stratocumulus cloud close to shore in the Gulf of Mexico. We investigate the feasibility of retrieving aerosol properties over clouds using these data. Our approach is to first determine cloud droplet size distribution using the angular location of the cloud bow and other features in the polarized reflectance. The selected cloud was then used in a multiple scattering radiative transfer model optimization to determine the aerosol optical properties and fine tune the cloud size distribution. In this scene, we were able to retrieve aerosol optical depth, the fine mode aerosol size distribution parameters and the cloud droplet size distribution parameters to a degree of accuracy required for climate modeling. This required assumptions about the aerosol vertical distribution and the optical properties of the coarse aerosol size mode. A sensitivity study was also performed to place this study in the context of future systematic scanning polarimeter observations, which found that the aerosol complex refractive index can also be observed accurately if the aerosol optical depth is larger than roughly 0.8 at a wavelength of (0.555 m).

Knobelspiesse, K.↗
NASA NTRS1979

An assessment of methods for the control of large space structures

Large flexible spacecraft represent highly complex distributed-parameter systems. In theory, a distributed-parameter system possesses an infinite number of degrees of freedom. For practical reasons, however, it must be discretized, which implies truncation. From a structural dynamics point of view, a mathematical model can be made more accurate by retaining an increasing number of degrees of freedom. From a control theory point of view, however, an increasing number of degrees of freedom places severe demands on the reliability of the various control algorithms. There is a difference of at least one order of magnitude between the structural modeling requirements and control theory capability. One of the challenges of large space structures control technology is to bridge this difference.

Meirovitch, L.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Reliability analysis of structural ceramic components using a three-parameter Weibull distribution

Described here are nonlinear regression estimators for the three-Weibull distribution. Issues relating to the bias and invariance associated with these estimators are examined numerically using Monte Carlo simulation methods. The estimators were used to extract parameters from sintered silicon nitride failure data. A reliability analysis was performed on a turbopump blade utilizing the three-parameter Weibull distribution and the estimates from the sintered silicon nitride data.

Duffy, Stephen F.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Statistical Distribution of Gear Surface Fatigue Lives at High Reliability

The reliability of gears is important for a wide variety of applications, and the gearing community has a desire for better prediction of fatigue life at very high reliability. To improve predictions, a set of 950 NASA-conducted gear surface fatigue test results were gathered, pooled together using the general standardized Weibull variate, and then fit to a Weibull three-parameter distribution. An iterative fitting method was developed and then applied to the gear fatigue data to determine the values of the distribution parameters. Additional analyses were done using bearing and gear data that demonstrate a trend of increasing minimum life coefficient as correlated to the timeframe of the fatigue testing, and material cleanliness is proposed as a primary explanation for such correlation. It is noted that this observed trend supports published findings from analytical modeling and experimental studies that improvements to material cleanliness improves minimum fatigue life. Further use and study of the three-parameter Weibull distribution is recommended as a tool to quantify fatigue life most accurately in the high reliability regime.

gear↗
NASA NTRS2009

Automatic Determination of the Conic Coronal Mass Ejection Model Parameters

Characterization of the three-dimensional structure of solar transients using incomplete plane of sky data is a difficult problem whose solutions have potential for societal benefit in terms of space weather applications. In this paper transients are characterized in three dimensions by means of conic coronal mass ejection (CME) approximation. A novel method for the automatic determination of cone model parameters from observed halo CMEs is introduced. The method uses both standard image processing techniques to extract the CME mass from white-light coronagraph images and a novel inversion routine providing the final cone parameters. A bootstrap technique is used to provide model parameter distributions. When combined with heliospheric modeling, the cone model parameter distributions will provide direct means for ensemble predictions of transient propagation in the heliosphere. An initial validation of the automatic method is carried by comparison to manually determined cone model parameters. It is shown using 14 halo CME events that there is reasonable agreement, especially between the heliocentric locations of the cones derived with the two methods. It is argued that both the heliocentric locations and the opening half-angles of the automatically determined cones may be more realistic than those obtained from the manual analysis

Pulkkinen, A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Advances in parameter estimation techniques applied to flexible structures

In this work, various parameter estimation techniques are investigated in the context of structural system identification utilizing distributed parameter models and 'measured' time-domain data. Distributed parameter models are formulated using the PDEMOD software developed by Taylor. Enhancements made to PDEMOD for this work include the following: (1) a Wittrick-Williams based root solving algorithm; (2) a time simulation capability; and (3) various parameter estimation algorithms. The parameter estimations schemes will be contrasted using the NASA Mini-Mast as the focus structure.

Maben, Egbert↗
NASA NTRS1996

Least Squares Best Fit Method for the Three Parameter Weibull Distribution: Analysis of Tensile and Bend Specimens with Volume or Surface Flaw Failure

Material characterization parameters obtained from naturally flawed specimens are necessary for reliability evaluation of non-deterministic advanced ceramic structural components. The least squares best fit method is applied to the three parameter uniaxial Weibull model to obtain the material parameters from experimental tests on volume or surface flawed specimens subjected to pure tension, pure bending, four point or three point loading. Several illustrative example problems are provided.

Gross, Bernard↗
NASA NTRS1973

On optimal modeling of systems.

A procedure for modeling a linear system by an optimal finite-dimensional approximation is developed on the basis of Sard's (1967) generalized spline. Error bounds are given, and the application of the procedure is illustrated by two presented examples. The procedure may be employed, not only in the modeling of conventional lumped-parameter and distributed-parameter continuous dynamical systems, but also in mathematical operations such as those involved in pattern recognition and picture enhancement problems.

De Figueiredo, R. J. P.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Lower bound on reliability for Weibull distribution when shape parameter is not estimated accurately

The mathematical relationships between the shape parameter Beta and estimates of reliability and a life limit lower bound for the two parameter Weibull distribution are investigated. It is shown that under rather general conditions, both the reliability lower bound and the allowable life limit lower bound (often called a tolerance limit) have unique global minimums over a range of Beta. Hence lower bound solutions can be obtained without assuming or estimating Beta. The existence and uniqueness of these lower bounds are proven. Some real data examples are given to show how these lower bounds can be easily established and to demonstrate their practicality. The method developed here has proven to be extremely useful when using the Weibull distribution in analysis of no-failure or few-failures data. The results are applicable not only in the aerospace industry but anywhere that system reliabilities are high.

Huang, Zhaofeng↗
NASA NTRS1991

Lower bound on reliability for Weibull distribution when shape parameter is not estimated accurately

The mathematical relationships between the shape parameter Beta and estimates of reliability and a life limit lower bound for the two parameter Weibull distribution are investigated. It is shown that under rather general conditions, both the reliability lower bound and the allowable life limit lower bound (often called a tolerance limit) have unique global minimums over a range of Beta. Hence lower bound solutions can be obtained without assuming or estimating Beta. The existence and uniqueness of these lower bounds are proven. Some real data examples are given to show how these lower bounds can be easily established and to demonstrate their practicality. The method developed here has proven to be extremely useful when using the Weibull distribution in analysis of no-failure or few-failures data. The results are applicable not only in the aerospace industry but anywhere that system reliabilities are high.

Huang, Zhaofeng↗