The use of LiDAR and decision-making framework for recovery of high-activity radioactive sources
INL Virtual Walkdown for source recovery
99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “Decision making”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Enhancing Utility Operations with Digital Threads: The role of cloud computing in integrated data management and decision making
This slide deck is intended to be presented at the Digital Innovation Center for Excellence (DICE) conference May 2025. A lot of this information has already been approved through other presentations, but some information is new.
99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
Updates to a Preliminary Probabilistic Performance Assessment Model for Radiological and Chemical Contamination at the West Valley Site, New York - 20420
The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) is the owner of the Western New York Nuclear Service Center (WNYNSC), a 1,351-ha site located approximately 48 km south of Buffalo, New York. In 1962, Nuclear Fuel Services, Inc. (NFS) entered into agreements with the Atomic Energy Commission and New York State to construct the first commercial reprocessing plant of nuclear fuel in the United States at the WNYNSC. NFS built and operated the spent fuel reprocessing plant and waste disposal facilities, processing 640 Mg (640 metric tons) of spent nuclear fuel from 1966 to 1972 under an Atomic Energy Commission license. Nuclear fuel reprocessing operations halted in 1972 and never restarted, leaving behind radioactive and chemical wastes. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) was required to complete certain waste management activities under the West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP) Act of 1980 including decommissioning of WVDP facilities. As collaborating agencies, NYSERDA and the DOE are tasked with making decisions about decommissioning and risk reduction for the West Valley Site. Neptune and Company, Inc. (Neptune) was contracted to develop a probabilistic performance assessment (PPA) model to assist the agencies in their decision making process for decommissioning the WVDP and WNYNSC. One important tool that is needed in order to inform the decision-making process is a science-based model of the West Valley Site that evaluates potential future consequences for human health and the environment. This forms the core of the spatial domain of the West Valley PPA Model. The PPA Model, developed using the GoldSim system modeling software, is a tool intended to provide support for decision making that evaluates uncertainty, in a manner that is transparent, defensible, and robust. The PPA Model includes contaminant transport and health effects components, and is organized around geographically-grouped contaminated facilities. These include the waste disposal areas licensed by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the State of New York, a waste tank farm for storage of high level radioactive waste resulting from reprocessing operations, and several areas contaminated with radioactive and chemical constituents. The PPA Model evaluates contaminant transport from these sources to points of exposure across the site and into receiving surface waters and sediments. Hypothetical people and wildlife could be exposed to contamination at these locations, and the effects of these exposures are evaluated. Contaminant transport processes to be evaluated in the PPA Model include groundwater and surface water transport, contaminant translocation by plants and animals, diffusion, and erosion. The evaluation of exposures to people in this preliminary model is limited to a resident farmer scenario, and ecological assessment is performed at the level of a screening analysis. The results of these preliminary evaluations inform future model developments. PPA Model results are subjected to sensitivity analysis in order to determine those pathways and parameters that are most significant in influencing the results. This information allows analysts and decision makers to focus on those aspects of Site behavior and processes. With this information, the decision makers can drive informed, defensible decisions regarding decommissioning of the Site. This paper includes an update of the information presented at WM2019 [1]. (authors)
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
A research agenda for the science of actionable knowledge: Drawing from a review of the most misguided to the most enlightened claims in the science-policy interface literature
Linking science with action affords a prime opportunity to leverage greater societal impact from research and increase the use of evidence in decision-making. Success in these areas depends critically upon processes of producing and mobilizing knowledge, as well as supporting and making decisions. For decades, scholars have idealized and described these social processes in different ways, resulting in numerous assumptions that now variously guide engagements at the interface of science and society. We systematically catalog these assumptions based on prior research on the science-policy interface, and further distill them into a set of 26 claims. We then elicit expert perspectives (n = 16) about these claims to assess the extent to which they are accurate or merit further examination. Out of this process, we construct a research agenda to motivate future scientific research on actionable knowledge, prioritizing areas that experts identified as critical gaps in understanding of the science-society interface. The resulting agenda focuses on how to define success, support intermediaries, build trust, and evaluate the importance of consensus and its alternatives – all in the diverse contexts of science-society-decision-making interactions. We further raise questions about the centrality of knowledge in these interactions, discussing how a governance lens might be generative of efforts to support more equitable processes and outcomes. We offer these suggestions with hopes of furthering the science of actionable knowledge as a transdisciplinary area of inquiry.
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
A Meta-Level Framework for Evaluating Resilience in Net-Zero Carbon Power Systems with Extreme Weather Events in the United States
Important changes are underway in the U.S. power industry in the way that electricity is sourced, transported, and utilized. Disruption from extreme weather events and cybersecurity events is bringing new scrutiny to power-system resilience. Recognizing the complex social and technical aspects that are involved, this article provides a meta-level framework for coherently evaluating and making decisions about power-system resilience. It does so by examining net-zero carbon strategies with quantitative, qualitative, and integrative dimensions across discrete location-specific systems and timescales. The generalizable framework is designed with a flexibility and logic that allows for refinement to accompany stakeholder review processes and highly localized decision-making. To highlight the framework’s applicability across multiple timescales, processes, and types of knowledge, power system outages are reviewed for extreme weather events, including 2021 and 2011 winter storms that impacted Texas, the 2017 Hurricane Maria that affected Puerto Rico, and a heatwave/wildfire event in California in August 2020. By design, the meta-level framework enables utility decision-makers, regulators, insurers, and communities to analyze and track levels of resilience safeguards for a given system. Future directions to advance an integrated science of resilience in net-zero power systems and the use of this framework are also discussed.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Methodology for interpretable reinforcement learning model for HVAC energy control
Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) approaches have been used in various application areas to improve efficiency, optimization, or automation. However, very little is known about how the DRL algorithms make decisions and what features affect their performance. Using a case study of a DRL based Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) optimization methodology, we demonstrate how we can address these challenges by applying interpretability tools and systematically exploring the model inputs for better understanding the DRL behaviour and decision making process. We developed a methodology for interpretable reinforcement learning and evaluated our approach in real-world house located in Knoxville, TN. Our findings explain the reasoning behind DRL-based optimization decisions under different circumstances which has been discussed and confirmed by the experts in the field.
Kotevska, Olivera↗
Modernizing the Nuclear Industry and New Ways of Working
Nuclear energy is recognized as the most feasible energy source towards achieving nation-wide net-zero goals (COP 208, MIT). Additionally, the demand for reliable, consistent energy supply is soaring with the construction of energy hungry data centers and AI tools. This means the construction of new nuclear and the continuation of current nuclear are a high national priority. However, this leaves the nuclear industry with a workforce challenge. The rising demand for nuclear power is threatened by an underpopulated workforce. There exist a few contributors to the decreased workforce such as skewed workforce demographics resulting in large-scale workforce retirement. Also, some plants have observed difficulty hiring and retaining skill sets that typically comprise the nuclear power workforce – specifically skilled craftsman. Those who are graduating with desirable skills are seeking employment in sectors that are more modern and culturally more aligned with younger generational values. Lastly, within the nuclear sector, skilled employees will be a competitive commodity as advanced plants come online offering work environments that incorporate modern technologies, skill sets, and opportunities for career advancement. These factors emphasize the need for legacy plants to modernize with a focus on the workplace environment and culture that meets younger generations’ skills, cultural expectations, and desire for advancement opportunities. Nuclear plants are actively engaged in deploying advancements that improve the management of systems, structures, and components as well as process improvements and technologies that can reduce the costs of operation and maintenance. However, the advancements must also be analyzed, reviewed and deployed in a manner that considers the impact on how people within the organization collaborate, communicate, make decisions, and solve problems. Neglecting to consider the cultural impact of modernization risks poor adoption, unrealized opportunities, or insignificant change toward helping attract new employees. The traditional way of working is not necessarily the way new generations want to engage with their employer. For instance, in a survey performed by North American Young Generation in Nuclear the top three reasons for younger nuclear employees to seek other job opportunities was seeking better work-life balance, a lack of advancement opportunities, and work culture and leadership style differences (Smyth et al. 2022). Integrated Operations for Nuclear (ION) is an approach for the nuclear industry to create long-term strategic modernization plans and analyze each advancement for the impact on people and processes and measure how those impacts flow up to support high-level, long-term plant goals and requirements. One principle of ION is to replace the current labor-centric operation style in legacy nuclear plants with data-centric collaborative operation styles. This paper will explain how transitioning operations to leverage centralized skills and responsibility, multi-skilled teams, and collaborative decision making can flatten the hierarchical structure in plants, enable greater individual efficacy while also offering more experiences and advancement opportunities to staff. Adopting the ION way of working shifts the industry mind-set towards more networked, collaborative, and modern way of working that will attract skilled, next-generation workers to operate the legacy nuclear fleet.
99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
An Applied Strategy for Using Empirical and Hybrid Models in Online Monitoring
The monitoring of plant equipment for failure prediction is one of the key contributors to operation and maintenance (O&M) costs for a nuclear power plant (NPP) because O&M monitoring depends on labor-intensive activities that are required to meet high equipment reliability standards. These activities rely primarily on humans for information gathering, condition diagnosis, and predictive analysis. Online monitoring aims to automate these activities by relying on sensors to replace human information gathering and machine learning to replace human analysis and decision making. To facilitate automated monitoring, a systematic strategy for anomaly detection is needed to optimally use the available sensor data, empirical models, and physics-supported models. This strategy is essential to provide credible reasoning on why and when an empirical (i.e., purely data-driven) versus hybrid (i.e., physics-supported) approach should be used and to determine the ideal mix of these two approaches for a defined anomaly detection scope. The extant methods usually adopt an ad hoc trial-and-error approach that, in addition to being time-consuming and costly, is also highly subjective; it is impacted by the background and the skill set of the personnel making the decisions. Thus, such an approach cannot guarantee an optimum outcome. This represents the motivation of the current research effort, which is focused on devising a scientifically supported strategy for the optimum selection of anomaly detection methods. This report presents a detailed assessment of the main anomaly detection techniques within the empirical or hybrid method streams. Empirical methods include pattern, statistical, and causal inference. Hybrid methods include the use of physics models to train and test data methods, reduce data dimensionality, reduce data-model complexity, augment data, and reduce empirical uncertainty; hybrid methods also include the use of data to tune physics models. The listed techniques within these two streams represent the vast majority of techniques performed for anomaly detection. Using the techniques as outcomes, a strategy was developed to enable a systematic decision-making process to lead to one of these techniques. The strategy is driven by key decision points related to data relevance, simple modeling feasibility, data inference, physics-modeling value, data dimensionality, physics knowledge, method of validation, performance, data availability and suitability for training and testing, cause-effect, entropy inference, and model fitting. Each of these decision points in the strategy is explained in detail in this report with examples, along with the scientific basis behind the decisions and outcomes in common and simplified terminology. The strategy is developed for use by any NPP staff with basic engineering or science knowledge. A user-friendly graphical state flow diagram was also developed as a visual presentation of the strategy. The strategy was tested and demonstrated through two pilot projects for the application of anomaly detection at an NPP. Each pilot had two use cases: an initial case in which certain decisions were made that resulted in one or more empirical techniques and a revised use case where one or more key decisions were modified resulting in using a set of hybrid methods.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
Transactive Energy Systems: The Market-based Coordination of Distributed Energy Resources
This paper synthesizes a unifying framework that captures a large class of transactive energy systems studied in the literature. The framework consists of four key elements: agent preferences, control decisions, information structure, and solution concept. Among them, agent preference specifies the preferred outcome by each agent and models the conflict of interest in decision making. Control decision specifies the set of decisions for each agent to maximize its payoff. Information structure describes the information available to each agent before it makes a decision. Solution concept encodes the rationality assumptions of each agent in the system. These elements are important in identifying and distinguishing different transactive energy systems. In this paper, we use them to analyze a number of important ones, including the competitive equilibrium, Stackelberg game, reverse Stackelberg game, and mechanism design. Each class of these problems is formulated as a special case of the proposed transactive energy systems. Their connections and differences are discussed. Available tools and results for each category of problems are surveyed.
Li, Sen↗
Digital Twin + AI: Control Room of the Future [Slides]
The control room functions as the central brain of the grid, essential for balancing supply and demand and ensuring moment-to-moment grid reliability. Like the human brain, which processes sensory data to make decisions, control room operators analyze operational data from power generation, transmission, and distribution to make informed decisions. Currently, decision-making primarily rests with operators due to hardware and software limitations. However, with technological advancements, Digital Twins and AI are becoming high interest points in the control room's decision-making pilot programs. NREL is developing a comprehensive decision-making platform that integrates Digital Twins, AI, and advanced visualization techniques. As this integration progresses, the role of Digital Twins will evolve from conducting automated simulations to serving as a Trustworthy AI enabler, offering verification and validation of AI-generated response for power systems or providing physics-aware synthetic data of AI pre-training.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Making a Water Data System Responsive to Information Needs of Decision Makers
Evidence-based environmental management requires data that are sufficient, accessible, useful and used. A mismatch between data, data systems, and data needs for decision making can result in inefficient and inequitable capital investments, resource allocations, environmental protection, hazard mitigation, and quality of life. In this paper, we examine the relationship between data and decision making in environmental management, with a focus on water management. We focus on the concept of decision-driven data systems —data systems that incorporate an assessment of decision-makers' data needs into their design. The aim of the research was to examine the process of translating data into effective decision making by engaging stakeholders in the development of a water data system. Using California's legislative mandate for state agencies to integrate existing water and other environmental data as a case study, we developed and applied a participatory approach to inform data-system design and identify unmet data needs. Using workshops and focused stakeholder meetings, we developed 20 diverse use cases to assess data sources, availability, characteristics, gaps, and other attributes of data used for representative decisions. Federal and state agencies made up about 90% of the data sources, and could readily adapt to a federated data system, our recommended model for the state. The remaining 10% of more-specialized data, central to important decisions across multiple use cases, would require additional investment or incentives to achieve data consistency, interoperability, and compatibility with a federated system. Based on this assessment, we propose a typology of different types of data limitations and gaps described by stakeholders. We also propose technical, governance, and stakeholder engagement evaluation criteria to guide planning and building environmental data systems. Data-system governance involving both producers and users of data was seen as essential to achieving workable standards, stable funding, convenient data availability, resilience to institutional change, and long-term buy-in by stakeholders. Our work provides a replicable lesson for using decision-maker and stakeholder engagement to shape the design of an environmental data system, and inform a technical design that addresses both user and producer needs.
Cantor, Alida↗
Blockchain for Fault-Tolerant Grid Operations Version 2.0
This report explores the potential of distributed ledger technology (DLT) as a transformative tool to enhance fault-tolerant operations in electrical distribution systems. Leveraging DLT's core attributes, including an immutable decentralized ledger, distributed consensus mechanisms, and state replication capabilities, this study focuses on three critical use cases. A central aspect of this research centers on the utilization of a consensus-driven ledger, providing actors within the system, such as distributed resources, with access to a reliable data repository. This empowers these actors to collaborate effectively and make informed decisions, all securely recorded on the blockchain. The first use case concentrates on data configuration, utilizing mathematical criteria---particularly, the chi-squared test for gross error detection---to identify trustworthy sensors for advanced decision-making. Building upon this foundation of trust, the second use case, topology identification, accurately determines circuit breaker states, unveiling the distribution network's topology. Ultimately, the third use case leverages this trust to execute switching actions, reconfiguring feeders and restoring power to disconnected customers after fault events. The concept of trust serves as a cornerstone in this approach, marking a departure from traditional fault location, isolation, and service restoration (FLISR) methods. Additionally, the blockchain-based architecture introduces decentralization, empowering disconnected areas to make autonomous decisions, even when communication with a central control center is disrupted. The primary contributions of this report are twofold: (1) a novel approach for evaluating distribution system voltage areas while preserving data ownership and (2) the implementation of interactions between distribution network areas using the actor model. Unlike the previous sequential approach for evaluating the area connection voltages, which required a radial network topology, this study's area model reduction enables a more versatile approach. The area model reduction addresses issues of prolonged data waiting times and multiple points of failure within the previous approach. Notably, the presented evaluation for the reduced network model area connection reveals a significant increase in the differences in voltage magnitudes. Simulation and evaluation of area agents across four distinct cases elucidate the area-level interaction behavior during a fault event. Simulations demonstrate that the proposed distributed FLISR (DFLISR) approach can successfully restore service to an affected area. Varying message delays and message loss probabilities in each simulation case underscore their impacts on restoration times, ranging from 3 min and 32 s to 6 min and 19 s. In contrast, power is not restored in an area in one of our simulation cases.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Robotic Planning under Uncertainty in Spatiotemporal Environments in Expeditionary Science
In the expeditionary sciences, spatiotemporally varying environments -- hydrothermal plumes, algal blooms, lava flows, or animal migrations -- are ubiquitous. Mobile robots are uniquely well-suited to study these dynamic, mesoscale natural environments. We formalize expeditionary science as a sequential decision-making problem, modeled using the language of partially-observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). Solving the expeditionary science POMDP under real-world constraints requires efficient probabilistic modeling and decision-making in problems with complex dynamics and observational models. Previous work in informative path planning, adaptive sampling, and experimental design have shown compelling results, largely in static environments, using data-driven models and information-based rewards. However, these methodologies do not trivially extend to expeditionary science in spatiotemporal environments: they generally do not make use of scientific knowledge such as equations of state dynamics, they focus on information gathering as opposed to scientific task execution, and they make use of decision-making approaches that scale poorly to large, continuous problems with long planning horizons and real-time operational constraints. In this work, we discuss these and other challenges related to probabilistic modeling and decision-making in expeditionary science, and present some of our preliminary work that addresses these gaps. We ground our results in a real expeditionary science deployment of an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) in the deep ocean for hydrothermal vent discovery and characterization. Our concluding thoughts highlight remaining work to be done, and the challenges that merit consideration by the reinforcement learning and decision-making community.
Preston, Victoria↗
Demystifying Cyberattacks: Potential for Securing Energy Systems With Explainable AI : Preprint
Modernization of energy systems has led to in- creased interactions among multiple critical infrastructures and diverse stakeholders making the challenge of operational decision making more complex and at times beyond cognitive capabilities of human operators. The state-of-the-art machine learning and deep learning approaches show promise of supporting users with complex decision-making challenges, such as those occurring in our rapidly transforming cyber-physical energy systems. However, successful adoption of data-driven decision support technology for critical infrastructure will be dependent on the ability of these technologies to be trustworthy and contextually interpretable. In this paper, we investigate the feasibility of implementing XAI for interpretable detection of cyberattacks in the energy system. Leveraging a proof-of-concept simulation use case of detection of a data falsification attack on a photovoltaic system using XGBoost algorithm, we demonstrate how Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME), a flavor XAI approach, can help provide contextual and actionable interpretation of cyberattack detection.
artificial intelligence↗
Developing a Process for Collaboration-Based Siting of a Federal Consolidated Interim Storage Facility in the United States: Learning from Communities Living with Legacy Waste
In June of 2023, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) announced the selection of its Collaboration-Based Siting (CBS) Consortia, a group of 12 awardees, including the Consortium for Risk Evaluation with Stakeholder Participation (CRESP) (led by Vanderbilt University) to assist DOE-NE with the development of its process for siting a federal consolidated interim storage facility (FCISF) for spent nuclear fuel (SNF) storage. At this time, DOE NE is not soliciting interested host communities, rather the CBS Consortia are tasked with in-depth engagement, mutual learning, and capacity building to provide DOE NE with feedback on the CBS process. CRESP’s objective is to engage communities in two regions (the Pacific Northwest and the Southeast) with sites currently storing defense- and research-related SNF to foster learning concerning the best and worst practices in community participation in risk-informed decision making. This includes learning from existing structures for public input in radioactive waste management decision making [e.g. citizen advisory boards (CABs)] and other local parties about how to build and sustain trust among the parties. CRESP has been working to engage stakeholders and Tribes surrounding two DOE sites historically differing in receptiveness to engaging with DOE and trusting in DOE to accomplish its missions. CRESP’s approach to date has consisted of (1) engaging voluntarily members and former members of the DOE Office of Environmental Management’s CABs to develop a mutual understanding of their perspectives, values, and experiences related to risk and participatory decision making; (2) engaging members of those communities that would likely be part of any radioactive waste management discussions and who may provide valuable feedback for the development of the CBS process; and in the longer term, (3) engaging communities to foster knowledge sharing on understanding and definitions of risk and how risk is factored into community decision making. Our emphasis is to identify opportunities for improving risk communication frameworks, strategies, and decision making. The selection of a future FCISF site is likely to result in the creation of a structure similar to a CAB composed of members of the local community. We anticipate that these insights can help DOE NE learn from existing participatory risk communication structures in place at sites storing defenseor research-related SNF to understand best practices for fostering enduring and participatory relationships with future CABs. Within this paper, we (1) describe CRESP’s overall approach to assisting DOE NE with maturing the CBS process; (2) present a summary of preliminary phase 1 project results, including the development of a body of knowledge (describing available resources to support community engagement, risk communica tion, and participatory decision making) and community ecosystem information (leveraging demographic, social, economic, and environmental attribute mapping and advanced sentiment analysis of social media data); and (3) based on these results, provide observations for future research opportunities to support the development of CBS processes for radioactive waste management facilities, generally.
collaboration-based siting↗
Choosing the Best Modeling Platform for Radiological Risk Assessment Models - 20468
Radiological risk assessments, in the form of performance or safety assessments, are often required under regulations or guidance for remediation of contaminated land, decommissioning of contaminated buildings or structures, and radioactive waste disposal. These risk assessments are usually supported by fate and transport models that address decay and ingrowth of radionuclides, as well as their movement through engineered systems and the natural environment. These models are often projected thousands, or more, years into the future, largely because the radioactive species change through decay and ingrowth, and hence the magnitude of the radioactive effect changes with time. There are many computer codes that are available to address this type of modeling. They range from addressing specific pathways or processes such as infiltration of water, groundwater, surface water, air, biota, diffusion and advection of water and gases, to those that try to couple all processes together to evaluate the impact of fate and transport through the entire system to places in space and time to which access is assumed. These different types of codes are sometimes separated with the monikers process-level and systems-level codes, although it is often not clear that this separation does justice to the capabilities of the many codes that are available to evaluate fate and transport of radionuclides. The focus of this paper is the latter group of modeling codes. Several systems level modeling codes exist and are used. There are differences between these codes in terms of utility, flexibility, complexity and cost. The purpose of this paper is to compare a few of these codes in the context of work currently being performed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Modeling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments (MODARIA) II Working Group 1 (WG1). The MODARIA II WG1's main focus is how stakeholder engaged decision analysis can, or should, be applied to radiological contamination problems so that better, longstanding, sustainable, solutions are reached. However, the WG1 also recognizes the potential impact of the modeling tools that are chosen to address radiological risk, which is often a primary objective of decision making for radiological problems. Other objectives might also be important, such as constraining costs, obtaining financing, minimizing impact on ecosystems, saving cultural resources, saving jobs, farmland, environmental justice, etc., in a full decision analysis for a given radiological contamination problem, but none of these other objectives have the same types of complex modeling needs as minimize radiological dose. Consequently, a further focus of WG1 is to evaluate the potential impacts on decision making of the choice of fate and transport, and risk assessment, modeling codes that are used to support decision making. The WG1 will produce a report at the end of 2020 that will focus on an approach to effective decision making and stakeholder engagement. The report will also consider the role that performance assessment modeling should play in the decision-making process, including the impact of the choice of modeling tools or computer codes on risk-informed decision making. Several sites around the World have been made available by Member States for these model comparisons, and several modeling tools have been considered. However, the focus of this paper is on two of the sites, one in Belgium and one in Ukraine, and on three of the tools: NORMALYSA (NORM And Legacy Site Assessment); GoldSim{sup C}, and AMBER{sup C}. The final report from this working group will also cover other modeling tools, including RESRAD, and PC-Cream{sup R}. (authors)
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Nuclear decisionmaking, complexity and emerging and disruptive technologies: A comprehensive assessment
The complex interactions of emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) could significantly impact nuclear decision-making, particular in an escalating regional conventional conflict. Such conflicts may present governments with a range of nuclear decisions: whether to introduce a nuclear dimension to a crisis, whether to cross the nuclear threshold through limited nuclear use, how to respond to a limited nuclear attack, whether to expand the scope and intensity of initial limited attacks, and whether to escalate to an all-out nuclear war. At each decision point, EDTs create potential risks as well as rewards. EDTs are likely to influence the context for nuclear decision-making and the choices between different courses of action. EDTs could impact the context of nuclear decision-making by improving or degrading situational assessment, the ability to deliberate, and the ability to manage one’s nuclear forces. EDTs could influence the choice between nuclear restraint or escalation by affecting the perceived strategic benefits, escalatory risks, and operational requirements associated with different courses of action. Even though particular combinations of EDTs could precipitate nuclear use in some scenarios, they could encourage restraint in others. The impact and relevance of the same combinations of EDTs might be different at various nuclear decision points. The availability of specific combinations of EDTs at different stages of a conflict would also vary because of the attrition and one-time-use nature of some capabilities. In later stages of a conflict, the decision maker’s confidence in different combinations of EDTs would depend on their previous experience in using them. While the interactions of EDTs are likely to bring additional complexity to a nuclear decision-making process, EDTs are also not the only source of complexity. Broader strategic, military, operational, legal, moral, and emotional factors are also likely to play an important role. These factors may dominate decision-making in a range of potential cases.
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
Decision Science for Machine Learning (DeSciML)
The increasing use of machine learning (ML) models to support high-consequence decision making drives a need to increase the rigor of ML-based decision making. Critical problems ranging from climate change to nonproliferation monitoring rely on machine learning for aspects of their analyses. Likewise, future technologies, such as incorporation of data-driven methods into the stockpile surveillance and predictive failure analysis for weapons components, will all rely on decision-making that incorporates the output of machine learning models. In this project, our main focus was the development of decision scientific methods that combine uncertainty estimates for machine learning predictions, with a domain-specific model of error costs. Other focus areas include uncertainty measurement in ML predictions, designing decision rules using multiobjecive optimization, the value of uncertainty reduction, and decision-tailored uncertainty quantification for probability estimates. By laying foundations for rigorous decision making based on the predictions of machine learning models, these approaches are directly relevant to every national security mission that applies, or will apply, machine learning to data, most of which entail some decision context.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗