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At least 163 records · Page 9

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2023

InVEST Urban Development: Incorporating Earth Observation Data into the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Urban Flood Risk Mitigation Model Python API

Urban flooding poses as one of the biggest issues for cities today as its impacts are amplified by both climate change and urbanization. The Natural Capital Project’s Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Urban Flood Risk Mitigation (UFRM) model, which benefits from its simplicity and robustness, is commonly used in NASA DEVELOP projects for disaster mitigation, urban planning, and environmental justice issues. While the InVEST UFRM model was able to produce the surface water runoff and retention map sufficient for the scopes of past projects, the model’s accuracy and spatial variability need improvement. Since the current InVEST UFRM model employs constant rainfall depth for all pixels in the area of interest (AOI), the model suffers from inaccurately estimating rainfall depth, runoff volume, and flood depth. Therefore, we adapted the model so that satellite-based precipitation raster datasets (i.e., Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement [GPM IMERG]) can be used instead of a single constant value. We simulated the flood events on August 21st and August 22nd, 2017, in Wyandotte County, Kansas using both our modified and the original InVEST UFRM model and then compared the results after incorporating rainfall raster into the model. Areas with developed land on the land use map predicted moderate to high flood volume in the original volume regardless of the actual amount of precipitation. The modified model considered the rainfall depth’s spatial variation achieving less overestimation of flood runoff and volume at low-to-moderate rainfall area.

Urban flooding↗

DOE OSTI2018

EPA and Idaho National Laboratory create first of its scale

Advancing the science and engineering of decontaminating water distribution systems and safely disposing of high-volumes of contaminated water are high priorities for the EPA. To help address these science gaps, EPA homeland security researchers have developed the first-of-its-scale Water Security Test Bed (WSTB). Water is an important component of everyday life. We rely on safe, clean water for our health and the health of the environment. Protecting this vital resource is critical to living safely and securely. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is responsible for working with water utilities to protect water systems from contamination and to clean up systems that become contaminated. Purposeful or inadvertent distribution system contamination can result in large amounts of infrastructure and water that must be cleaned. Water distribution systems contamination can be caused by, for example, natural disasters such as Superstorm Sandy or by individuals hoping to cause harm. The WSTB, constructed at the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Idaho National Laboratory, replicates a section of a typical municipal drinking water system including a piping system with roughly 445 feet of pipe and two fire hydrants laid out in an “L” shape using 40-year-old, eight-inch cement mortar lined, ductile iron pipes, excavated after twenty years of use for water conveyance. Researchers built the WSTB above ground for easy access during experiments, and to facilitate fast leak detection. Over the next several years, EPA and partner researchers will conduct experiments using simulants of various biological, chemical, and radioactive materials that simulate high toxic versions of these agents. At this “full” sized system, researchers will demonstrate approaches to contamination detection, sensor and model testing, infrastructure decontamination, water treatment and cyber testing developed at lab and pilot scale. Researchers are also able to verify if laboratory results that were effective in controlled conditions are as effective in full-scale testing. Having the ability to conduct bench scale studies in a real world setting can help address specific research gaps, and help water researchers understand conditions in which real world drinking water systems operate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Ship-to-grid integration: Environmental mitigation and critical infrastructure resilience

The United States and European Union have an increasing number of projects that are engaging end-use devices for improved grid capabilities. Areas such as building-to-grid and vehicle-to-grid are simple examples of these increasing capabilities. In this paper, we present an innovative concept study for a ship-to-grid integration. The goal of this study is to simulate a two-way power flow between ship(s) and the grid with GridLAB-D for the port of Kyllini in Greece, where a ship-to-shore interconnection was recently implemented. Extending this further, we explore: (a) the ability of ships to meet their load demand needs, while at berth, by being supplied with energy from the electric grid and thus powering off their diesel engines; and (b) the ability of ships to provide power to critical loads. As a result, the ship-to-grid integration helps (a) mitigate environmental pollutants from the ships’ diesel engines and (b) provide resilience to areas affected by natural disasters.

Vlachokostas, Efthimios Alexandros↗

NASA NTRS2011

External Tank - The Structure Backbone

The External Tank forms the structural backbone of the Space Shuttle in the launch configuration. Because the tank flies to orbital velocity with the Space Shuttle Orbiter, minimization of weight is mandatory, to maximize payload performance. Choice of lightweight materials both for structure and thermal conditioning was necessary. The tank is large, and unique manufacturing facilities, tooling, handling, and transportation operations were required. Weld processes and tooling evolved with the design as it matured through several block changes, to reduce weight. Non Destructive Evaluation methods were used to assure integrity of welds and thermal protection system materials. The aluminum-lithium alloy was used near the end of the program and weld processes and weld repair techniques had to be refined. Development and implementation of friction stir welding was a substantial technology development incorporated during the Program. Automated thermal protection system application processes were developed for the majority of the tank surface. Material obsolescence was an issue throughout the 40 year program. The final configuration and tank weight enabled international space station assembly in a high inclination orbit allowing international cooperation with the Russian Federal Space Agency. Numerous process controls were implemented to assure product quality, and innovative proof testing was accomplished prior to delivery. Process controls were implemented to assure cleanliness in the production environment, to control contaminants, and to preclude corrosion. Each tank was accepted via rigorous inspections, including non-destructive evaluation techniques, proof testing, and all systems testing. In the post STS-107 era, the project focused on ascent debris risk reduction. This was accomplished via stringent process controls, post flight assessment using substantially improved imagery, and selective redesigns. These efforts were supported with a number of test programs to simulate combined environments. Processing improvements included development and use of low spray guns for foam application, additional human factors considerations for production, use of high fidelity mockups during hardware processing with video review, improved tank access, extensive use of non destructive evaluation, and producibility enhancements. Design improvements included redesigned bipod fittings, a bellows heater, a feedline camera active during ascent flight, removal of the protuberance airload ramps, redesigned ice frost ramps, and titanium brackets replaced aluminum brackets on the liquid oxygen feedline. Post flight assessment improved due to significant addition of imagery assets, greatly improving situational awareness. The debris risk was reduced by two orders of magnitude. During this time a major natural disaster was overcome when Katrina damaged the manufacturing facility. Numerous lessons from these efforts are documented within the paper.

Welzyn, Kenneth↗

DOE OSTI2025

LandScan mosaic enables high-resolution gridded population estimates with explicit uncertainty

Gridded population datasets represent high-resolution distributions of human occupancy, enabling informed decision-making across a broad range of fields. These data products are valuable for assessing environmental risk, urban development, disaster preparedness and resource allocation—areas where accurate population estimates directly enhance policy effectiveness and optimize resource distribution. Despite the importance of gridded population datasets, traditional population modeling approaches often overlook inherent uncertainties in the estimation process. This limitation can create a false sense of certainty in population estimates, potentially leading to flawed decisions by those who rely on the data. To address this methodological gap, we introduce a probabilistic machine learning modeling framework, LandScan Mosaic, that explicitly incorporates uncertainty into the population modeling process. Our approach systematically quantifies uncertainty in three key modeling parameters of the LandScan HD gridded population dataset: building use types, floor counts, and occupancy rates. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we propagate these uncertainties through the modeling process, yielding probability distributions of population counts in place of deterministic point estimates. We demonstrate the practical application of this framework in Iloilo City, Philippines, using structured decision-making techniques and our probabilistic estimates to identify and prioritize areas most affected by projected flooding, supporting targeted interventions that address both economic and social risks. In doing so, we propose a population-specific approach for incorporating confidence into structured decision making processes. Through a comparative analysis with conventional deterministic approaches and point estimate approaches, including LandScan HD and WorldPop, we evaluate how the incorporation of machine learning and uncertainty influences decision rankings. This research advances population distribution modeling by offering a robust, quantitative approach that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in the underlying data, along with guidance for how users can apply uncertainty in their decision-making.

Environmental sciences↗

DOE OSTI2018

Improving the real-time probabilistic channel flood forecasting by incorporating the uncertainty of inflow using the particle filter

An accurate and reliable real-time flood forecast is crucial for mitigating flood disasters. The errors associated with the inflow boundary forcing data are considered as an important source of uncertainties in hydraulic model. In this paper, a real-time probabilistic channel flood forecasting model is developed with a novel function to incorporate the uncertainty of the forcing inflow. This new approach couples a hydraulic model with the particle filter (PF) data assimilation algorithm, a sequential Bayesian Monte Carlo method. The stage observations at hydrological stations are assimilated at each time step to update the model states in order to improve the next time step’s forecasting. This new approach is tested against a real flood event occurred in the upper Yangtze River. As compared with the open loop simulations, the evaluations of model performance with several deterministic and probabilistic metrics indicate that the accuracy of the ensemble mean prediction and the reliability of the uncertainty quantification are improved pronouncedly as a result of the PF assimilation. Further assessment of the prediction results at different lead times shows that the improvement of model performance deteriorates with the increase of the lead time due to the gradual diminishing of the updating effect for the initial conditions. Based on the analyses of the number of particles and the assimilation frequency, we find that the optimal number of particles can be determined by balancing the model performance and the computation cost, while a high assimilation frequency is preferred to incorporate the emerging observations to update the model states to match the real conditions.

Channel flood forecasting, probabilistic forecast,↗

DOE OSTI2025

Projected changes in cross-equatorial northerly surges and their hydrological impacts in the near future

Recent decades have witnessed unprecedented extreme precipitation and catastrophic flooding in some of the most populated regions in Southeast Asia during boreal winter. These extreme events are often influenced by the cross-equatorial northerly surge (CENS), characterized by a strengthening of northerly moist monsoon winds south of the equator in the western Maritime Continent. However, the potential future changes in CENS and its hydrological impacts remain underexplored. Here, using an ensemble of high-resolution climate model simulations (CMIP6 HighResMIP), we show that the regional impacts of CENS on the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events are projected to significantly increase in the near future (2030–2050), particularly over the adjacent coastal regions of southern Indonesia and northwestern Australia. More specifically, the risk of CENS-related extreme precipitation is projected to increase by up to 39 ± 1.2% relative to the seasonal probability, despite no apparent changes in the CENS characteristics in the near future. Such stronger impact is attributed to the enhanced moistening efficiency and moist static instability due to a more humid and warmer environment, which leads to more intense CENS convection. Our results suggest the need for effective monitoring and disaster managements to respond to the increasing severity of such events in the near future.

Climate sciences↗

DOE OSTI2017

Radiological Source Term Estimates of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident

In the aftermath of a radiological disaster, it is desirable to predict and estimate the amount of radionuclides released into the atmosphere and environment. We obtained an estimate for radioxenon activity released into the atmosphere during the Fukushima accident by minimizing the discrepancy between the measured activity at several International Monitoring System (IMS) detectors and that obtained with the FLEXPART atmospheric transport modeling (ATM) code.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

NASA NTRS2017

Data Descriptor: A Land Data Assimilation System for Sub-Saharan Africa Food and Water Security Applications

Seasonal agricultural drought monitoring systems, which rely on satellite remote sensing and land surface models (LSMs), are important for disaster risk reduction and famine early warning. These systems require the best available weather inputs, as well as a long-term historical record to contextualize current observations. This article introduces the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), a custom instance of the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework. The FLDAS is routinely used to produce multi-model and multi-forcing estimates of hydro-climate states and fluxes over semi-arid, food insecure regions of Africa. These modeled data and derived products, like soil moisture percentiles and water availability, were designed and are currently used to complement FEWSNETs operational remotely sensed rainfall, evapotranspiration, and vegetation observations. The 30+ years of monthly outputs from the FLDAS simulations are publicly available from the NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) and recommended for use in hydroclimate studies, early warning applications, and by agro-meteorological scientists in Eastern, Southern, and Western Africa.

albedo↗

NASA NTRS2017

Supervisory Control of a Humanoid Robot in Microgravity for Manipulation Tasks

Teleoperation is the dominant form of dexterous robotic tasks in the field. However, there are many use cases in which direct teleoperation is not feasible such as disaster areas with poor communication as posed in the DARPA Robotics Challenge, or robot operations on spacecraft a large distance from Earth with long communication delays. Presented is a solution that combines the Affordance Template Framework for object interaction with TaskForce for supervisory control in order to accomplish high level task objectives with basic autonomous behavior from the robot. TaskForce, is a new commanding infrastructure that allows for optimal development of task execution, clear feedback to the user to aid in off-nominal situations, and the capability to add autonomous verification and corrective actions. This framework has allowed the robot to take corrective actions before requesting assistance from the user. This framework is demonstrated with Robonaut 2 removing a Cargo Transfer Bag from a simulated logistics resupply vehicle for spaceflight using a single operator command. This was executed with 80% success with no human involvement, and 95% success with limited human interaction. This technology sets the stage to do any number of high level tasks using a similar framework, allowing the robot to accomplish tasks with minimal to no human interaction.

Farrell, Logan C.↗

NASA NTRS2014

MARGInS: Model-Based Analysis of Realizable Goals in Systems

Under NASAs Constellation effort, the Exploration Technology Development Program funded research toward a system validation capability that applied machine learning and test-case generation techniques to the analysis of black-box system behavior. The behavior analysis capability scaled to spaces of hundreds of input parameters and tens of thousands of test cases. Aerospace systems at the vehicle level, especially those systems which contain some level of autonomy, are best described by hybrid and non-linear mathematics. Even simplified models of such systems need parameter dimensionalities in the hundreds or thousands of parameters in order to capture sufficient fidelity. The System Safety Assessments (such as those described in the SAE ARP 4761A Safety Assessment Process guidelines) for these systems are prone to errorinteractions between the vehicles subsystems are complex, and can display emergent behaviors. NASA captured this new analysis in the Model-based Analysis of Realizable Goals in Systems (MARGInS) tool and applied it to the Pad Abort 1 (PA-1) simulation as part of the independent validation and verification cycle before the PA-1 flight test in May of 2010. MARGInS evaluated the adherence of the high-fidelity simulation to its requirements, and deter- mined the margins to failure from the expected nominal input conditions. Following the PA-1 test, the capabilities within the MARGInS framework have been extended with sophisticated statistical and white-box test case generation techniques and applied to other NASA missions. The frame- work now includes a critical factors analysis that was applied to NASAs Orion simulation and design. NASAs Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) leveraged the existing MARGInS framework for work on aviation safety for civil transport vehicles and for research on autonomy issues. The NASA ARMD effort created a time series output prediction capability that has been used to characterize trajectories for a plane with an adaptive control system, and a safety boundary detection capability that has been applied to an air traffic control concept of operation for the Federal Aviation Administration. The statistical and machine- learning based techniques within MARGInS have been successfully combined with concolic execution to improve the coverage of a critical unit by driving system-level inputs. The use case driving the concolic execution and MARGInS integration was inspired by the Air France 447 disaster in which the loss of a critical functionality (the airspeed calculation from the pitot tubes) led to loss of the entire plane with the people aboard. To illustrate capabilities and limitations, we will highlight the analyses for the applications listed above. We will then discuss the future plans for MARGInS and its interfaces with other tools.

Validation↗

DOE OSTI2020

Projected changes in seasonal precipitation extremes over the United States in CMIP6 simulations

Quantifying how climate change may impact precipitation extremes is a priority for informing adaptation and policy planning. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 global climate models are analyzed to identify robust signals of projected changes in summer and winter precipitation extremes over the United States (US). Under a projected fossil-fuel based economic (i.e. high greenhouse gas emissions) scenario, our results show consistent changes in the seasonal patterns for many precipitation extremes by the end of the 21st century. We find a robust projected increase in the intensity of winter precipitation across models, with less agreement during the summer. Similarly, a robust projected amplification of heavy precipitation over the northern US is evident in winter, while intermodel spread is prevalent in summer projections. Specifically, the heavy and very heavy winter precipitation days (R10mm and R20mm) exhibit larger increases compared to other aspects of precipitation. Additionally, changes in dry extremes (e.g. consecutive dry days) are found to differ significantly across various subregions and seasons. Overall, our results suggest that the US may suffer more natural disasters such as floods and droughts in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2012

Developing Culture-Adaptive Competency Through Experiences with Expressive Avatars

Modern Warfighters often find themselves in a variety of non-combat roles such as negotiator, peacekeeper, reconstruction, and disaster relief. They are expected to perform these roles within a culture alien to their own. Each individual they encounter brings their own set of values to the interaction that must be understood and reconciled. To navigate the human terrain of these complex interactions, the Warfighter must not only consider the specifics of the target culture, but also identify the stakeholders, recognize the influencing cultural dimensions, and adapt to the situation to achieve the best possible outcome. Vcom3D is using game-based scenarios to develop culturally adaptive competency. The avatars that represent the stakeholders must be able to portray culturally accurate behavior, display complex emotion, and communicate through verbal and non-verbal cues. This paper will discuss the use of emerging game technologies to better simulate human behavior in cross-cultural dilemmas. Nomenclature: culture, adaptive, values, cultural values dimensions, dilemmas, virtual humans, non-verbal communications

Silverglate, Daniel S.↗

DOE OSTI2015

Evolving the Land Information System into a Cloud Computing Service

The Land Information System (LIS) was developed to use advanced flexible land surface modeling and data assimilation frameworks to integrate extremely large satellite- and ground-based observations with advanced land surface models to produce continuous high-resolution fields of land surface states and fluxes. The resulting fields are extremely useful for drought and flood assessment, agricultural planning, disaster management, weather and climate forecasting, water resources assessment, and the like. We envisioned transforming the LIS modeling system into a scientific cloud computing-aware web and data service that would allow clients to easily setup and configure for use in addressing large water management issues. The focus of this Phase 1 project was to determine the scientific, technical, commercial merit and feasibility of the proposed LIS-cloud innovations that are currently barriers to broad LIS applicability. We (a) quantified the barriers to broad LIS utility and commercialization (high performance computing, big data, user interface, and licensing issues); (b) designed the proposed LIS-cloud web service, model-data interface, database services, and user interfaces; (c) constructed a prototype LIS user interface including abstractions for simulation control, visualization, and data interaction, (d) used the prototype to conduct a market analysis and survey to determine potential market size and competition, (e) identified LIS software licensing and copyright limitations and developed solutions, and (f) developed a business plan for development and marketing of the LIS-cloud innovation. While some significant feasibility issues were found in the LIS licensing, overall a high degree of LIS-cloud technical feasibility was found.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Reconfigurable and Dynamic Distribution Systems Enabled Using Self-Sustainable Minimal-Microgrids with Region Based Stability Guarantees

In this paper, a reconfigurable and dynamic distribution system is designed using self-sustainable minimal-microgrids (min-MGs). Particularly, multiple dynamic microgrids are implemented by aggregating local min-MGs in a controllable way to facilitate service restoration at critical grid infrastructures, especially during severe power outages (e.g., those induced by natural disasters). These dynamic microgrids are implemented surrounding inverter interfaced distributed energy resources (DERs) to pick up local critical loads. Stable transient process during neighboring microgrid disconnection and resynchronization is realized by involving additional control terms in the secondary control level. Meanwhile, in order to ensure a stable operation with dynamic topology change, a computationally efficient region-based stability assessment approach is developed to ensure stability guarantees of each inverter dominated min-MG with potential changes of external grids modeled as disturbances. In contrast to conventional point-by-point stability evaluation approaches, the proposed region-based stability analysis can intuitively exhibit the feasible region comprised of stable operating points and identify sufficient stability margin to tolerate disturbances of dynamic system topology variations. Theoretical analysis is verified using simulation in MATLAB/Simulink.

distribution systems↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Summertime Mesoscale Convective Systems: A Simple Lagrangian Parcel Model Perspective

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are the dominant rainfall producer over the United States during the warm season, causing natural disasters and severe weather every year. Global climate models have large uncertainty in projecting precipitation changes in the future climate. Here, a simple Lagrangian parcel model is used to investigate the impact of global warming on MCS initiation and growth. The single-column parcel model projects a mean precipitation decrease over the central United States and an increase to its east, in agreement with the CMIP5 model projection. It also highlights the crucial role of current climate mean-state model bias in exaggerating the change in future mean precipitation projection by 25%. As for convective population, the model captures the decreased occurrence frequency of weak to moderate convection and increased frequency of strong convection due to the increased CAPE and CIN, in agreement with convection-permitting regional simulations. Novel parameterizations of gust-front propagation speed and subsidence strength are developed as guided by cloud-resolving simulations. The multicolumn parcel model employing those parameterizations captures readily the cold pool–induced upscale growth feature. It simulates smaller mesoscale clusters over the central United States under global warming due to gust-front slowdown and subsidence strength enhancement, which are further attributed to land aridity–induced weakening of initial accumulated precipitation and strengthening of updraft speed, respectively. That said, mesoscale clusters could become bigger under more favorable conditions in future climate, including boundary layer moistening, convection lifetime lengthening, and cold pool mechanical-lifting enhancement, which require further investigations to improve mechanistic understanding of future MCS changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Resilient design in nuclear energy: Critical lessons from a cross-disciplinary analysis of the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident

This paper presents a multidisciplinary analysis of the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. Along with the latest observations and simulation studies, we synthesize the time-series and event progressions during the accident across multiple disciplines, including in-plant physics and engineering systems, operators’ actions, emergency responses, meteorology, radionuclide release and transport, land contamination, and health impacts. We identify three key factors that exacerbated the consequences of the accident: (1) the failure of Unit 2 containment venting, (2) the insufficient integration of radiation measurements and meteorology data in the evacuation strategy, and (3) the limited risk assessment and emergency preparedness. We conclude with new research and development directions to improve the resilience of nuclear energy systems and communities, including (1) meteorology-informed proactive venting, (2) machine learning-enabled adaptive evacuation zones, and (3) comprehensive risk-informed emergency planning while leveraging the experience from responses to other disasters.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

DOE OSTI2021

Integrated modeling analysis of estuarine responses to extreme hydrological events and sea-level rise

Estuaries are vulnerable to climate change and are particularly sensitive to extreme river discharge (RD) and sea-level rise (SLR). To understand the effects of extreme RD and SLR on estuaries, an integrated modeling approach is adopted to simulate hydrodynamic changes in the Yangtze River Estuary. Model results showed that SLR will intensify the estuarine hydrodynamics in water level, currents, and salinity. Water level, current speed, and salinity increased linearly with the magnitude of SLR. The hydrological model suggested a lower RD in the future. This will increase the saltwater intrusion, which will be more severe during the lower RD and drought extreme hydrological event (EHE) conditions. Model results also suggested that the saltwater intrusion is more sensitive to RD than SLR. In addition, the interplay between the RD and SLR will exacerbate the impacts of coastal oceans on estuarine hydrodynamics, especially during extremely low RD conditions. Moreover, the decrease of RD and deepening of the channel due to human activities will also amplify the effects of SLR on the Estuary, increasing the risk of coastal disasters.

3-D hydrodynamic model, extreme climate, draught, ↗