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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Demand-Side Grid Model (dsgrid) Data from the Electrification Futures Project (EFS)

This data set contains the full-resolution and state-level data described in the linked technical report (https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/71492.pdf). It can be accessed with the NREL-dsgrid-legacy-efs-api, available on GitHub at https://github.com/dsgrid/dsgrid-legacy-efs-api and through PyPI (pip install NREL-dsgrid-legacy-efs-api). The data format is HDF5. The API is written in Python. This initial dsgrid data set, whose description was originally published in 2018, covers electricity demand in the contiguous United States (CONUS) for the historical year of 2012. It is a proof-of-concept demonstrating the feasibility of reconciling bottom-up demand modeling results with top-down information about electricity demand to create a more detailed description than is possible with either type of data source on its own. The result is demand data that is more highly resolved along geographic, temporal, sectoral, and end-use dimensions as may be helpful for conducting electricity sector-wide "what-if" analysis of, e.g., energy efficiency, electrification, and/or demand flexibility. Although we conducted bottom-up versus top-down validation, the final residuals were significant, especially at higher geographic and temporal resolution. Please see the Executive Summary and/or Section 3 of the report to obtain an understanding of the data set limitations before deciding whether these data are suitable for any particular use case. New dsgrid datasets are under development. Please visit https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/dsgrid.html for the latest information which is also linked in the data resources.

analysis↗
DOE OSTI2019

Behavioral modeling of on-demand mobility services: general framework and application to sustainable travel incentives

This paper presents a systematic way of understanding and modeling traveler behavior in response to on-demand mobility services. We explicitly consider the sequential and yet inter-connected decision-making stages specific to on-demand service usage. The framework includes a hybrid choice model for service subscription, and three logit mixture models with inter-consumer heterogeneity for the service access, menu product choice and opt-out choice. Different models are connected by feeding logsums. The proposed modeling framework is essential for accounting the impacts of real-time on-demand system's dynamics on traveler behaviors and capturing consumer heterogeneity, thus being greatly relevant for integrations in multi-modal dynamic simulators. The methodology is applied to a case study of an innovative personalized on-demand real-time system which incentivizes travelers to select more sustainable travel options. The data for model estimation is collected through a smartphone-based context-aware stated preference survey. Through model estimation, lower values of time are observed when the respondents opt to use the reward system. The perception of incentives and schedule delay by different population segments are quantified. These results are fundamental in setting the ground for different behavioral scenarios of such a new on-demand system. Here, the proposed methodology is flexible to be applied to model other on-demand mobility services such as ride-hailing services and the emerging mobility as a service.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

An evaluation of the demand response potential of integrated dynamic window and HVAC systems

Demand response (DR) increases the flexibility and reliability of the electricity grid as use of intermittent renewable energy sources increases. HVAC and envelope DR measures present the largest aggregate energy and peak demand savings potential of all commercial building end uses because their net demand savings occur during critical peak demand periods. Controllable envelope measures include switchable electrochromic windows, operable window attachments such as outdoor louvers, roller shades, and awnings, as well as other innovative facade technologies that can modulate both solar heat gain and daylight admission over a broad solar-optical range. This study evaluated the technical potential of DR-enabled dynamic windows to reduce critical peak demand for a prototypical medium office building situated in all 16 U.S. climates. Model predictive control (MPC) algorithms were designed to minimize electricity cost in daylit perimeter office zones through control of an electrochromic window with and without HVAC thermostat setpoint control. Conventional and time-of-use rates were used to shape the degree of DR. Median annual peak demand savings with window and thermostat control across all climate zones were 24.3 kW (4.4 W/m 2 ) per building or 15.9 W/m 2 for non-north perimeter zones. Resource adequacy at the whole building level was estimated to be 13.1 to 43.4 $/kW per year over the 30-year life of the installation. Co-benefits were increased energy efficiency, and reduced electricity cost and emissions. Visual and thermal comfort requirements were met at all times. Dynamic facades controlled by MPC have substantial technical potential for DR across all U.S. climates and warrant serious consideration for inclusion in DR portfolios.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Occupant-driven end use load models for demand response and flexibility service participation of residential grid-interactive buildings

As demand response becomes increasingly used as a tool to support improved grid flexibility, it is important to consider that there are many potential types of energy end uses that may be used to support such flexibility. Residential appliances, often accounting for 30 % or more of residential energy use, are a currently untapped source of demand flexibility, particularly when aggregated together across homes. To date there has been very limited analysis of residential appliances for use as grid-interactive loads. As such, this research uses disaggregated energy end use data for 564 households, to model the electricity demand flexibility potential of the use of residential dishwashers, clothes washers, clothes dryers, ovens, and ranges (oven + stovetop) on both weekdays and weekends. This includes both at the building level, as well as aggregated to the grid level, specifically the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) region. This study was divided into two parts. Part 1 focuses on determining appliance-level loads, and Part 2, which involves aggregation to the grid. Findings suggest that among the studied appliances, clothes dryers provide the greatest demand reduction potential for most times of the day, followed by dishwashers and clothes washers. The maximum potential reduction for clothes dryers is found to be approximately at 11:00 a.m. and this potential sustains throughout most of the daytime period. When considering the willingness of households to participate, based on a survey of households in the Midwest region, clothes dryers still have the most potential for demand reduction. The availability of appliances for load modulation on weekdays and weekends indicates similar load reduction potential for all appliances. Overall, the results of this study suggest that there is an opportunity for shifting appliance usage to optimize grid efficiency and enhance demand response strategies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reducing ridesourcing empty vehicle travel with future travel demand prediction

Ridesourcing services provide alternative mobility options in several cities. Their market share has grown exponentially due to the convenience they provide. The use of such services may be associated with car-light or car-free lifestyles. However, there are growing concerns regarding their impact on urban transportation operations performance due to empty, unproductive miles driven without a passenger (commonly referred to as deadheading). This paper is motivated by the potential to reduce deadhead mileage of ridesourcing trips by providing drivers with information on future ridesourcing trip demand. Future demand information enables the driver to wait in place for the next rider’s request without cruising around and contributing to congestion. A machine learning model is employed to predict hourly and 10-minute future interval travel demand for ridesourcing at a given location. Using future demand information, we propose algorithms to (i) assign drivers to act on received demand information by waiting in place for the next rider, and (ii) match these drivers with riders to minimize deadheading distance. Real-world data from ridesourcing providers in Austin, TX (RideAustin) and Chengdu, China (DiDi Chuxing) are leveraged. Results show that this process achieves 68%–82% and 53%–60% reduction of trip-level deadheading miles for the RideAustin and DiDi Chuxing sample operations respectively, under the assumption of unconstrained availability of short-term parking. Deadheading savings increase slightly as the maximum tolerable waiting time for the driver increases. Further, it is observed that significant deadhead savings per trip are possible, even when a small percent of the ridesourcing driver pool is provided with future ridesourcing demand information.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2015

Demand forecasting for automotive sector in Malaysia by system dynamics approach

In general, Proton as an automotive company needs to forecast future demand of the car to assist in decision making related to capacity expansion planning. One of the forecasting approaches that based on judgemental or subjective factors is normally used to forecast the demand. As a result, demand could be overstock that eventually will increase the operation cost; or the company will face understock, which resulted losing their customers. Due to automotive industry is very challenging process because of high level of complexity and uncertainty involved in the system, an accurate tool to forecast the future of automotive demand from the modelling perspective is required. Hence, the main objective of this paper is to forecast the demand of automotive Proton car industry in Malaysia using system dynamics approach. Two types of intervention namely optimistic and pessimistic experiments scenarios have been tested to determine the capacity expansion that can prevent the company from overstocking. Finding from this study highlighted that the management needs to expand their production for optimistic scenario, whilst pessimistic give results that would otherwise. Finally, this study could help Proton Edar Sdn. Bhd (PESB) to manage the long-term capacity planning in order to meet the future demand of the Proton cars.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Implications of different income distributions for future residential energy demand in the U.S.

Abstract Future income distribution will affect energy demand and its interactions with various societal priorities. Most future model simulations assume a single average consumer and thus miss this important demand determinant. We quantify long-term implications of alternative future income distributions for state-level residential energy demand, investment, greenhouse gas, and pollutant emission patterns in the United States (U.S.) by incorporating income quintiles into the residential energy sector of the Global Change Analysis Model with 50-state disaggregation. We find that if the income distribution within each U.S. state becomes more egalitarian than present, what means that the difference on income between the richest and poorest decreases over time, residential energy demand could be 10% (4%–14% across states) higher in 2100. This increase of residential energy demand will directly reduce energy poverty, with a very modest increment on economywide CO 2 emissions (1%–2%). On the other hand, if U.S. states transition to a less equitable income distribution than present, with the difference between richest and poorest increasing over time, residential energy demand could be 19% (12%–26% across states) lower. While this study focuses on a single sector, we conclude that to improve understanding of synergies and tradeoffs across multiple societal goals such as energy access, emissions, and investments, future model simulations should explicitly consider subregional income distribution impacts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Reducing Demand Charges and Onsite Generation Variability Using Behind-the-Meter Energy Storage

Electric utilities in the United States are increasingly employing demand charges and/or real-time pricing. This directive is bringing potential opportunities in deploying behindthe-meter energy storage (BMES) systems for various grid functionalities. This study quantifies techno-economic benefits of BMES in reducing demand charge and smoothing load/generation intermittencies, and determines how those benefits vary with onsite distributed photovoltaic. We proposed a two-stage control algorithm, whereby the first stage proactively determines costoptimal BMES configuration for reducing peak-demands and demand charges, and the second stage adaptively compensates intermittent generations and short load spikes that may otherwise increase the demand charges. The performance of the proposed algorithm is evaluated through a 24 hours time sweep simulation performed using data from smart microgrid testbed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The simulation results demonstrated that this research provides a simple but effective solution for peak shaving, demand charge reductions, and smoothing onsite PV variability.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Clean Grid Vision: A U.S. Perspective - Chapter 4. Demand-Side Development

This chapter focuses on recent developments on the demand side of the electricity system in the United States and beyond. After decades of slow-moving change in power system technology, business models, regulatory structures, and even financing schemes, changes on the demand side are accelerating rapidly. These changes are also more tightly linking the supply side with the demand side. This chapter provides high-level summaries of traditional subjects like demand-side management, which includes energy efficiency and demand response, and then transition to a subject that has gathered increasing attention as the most dynamic change likely to impact power systems in the coming decades: beneficial electrification. In each case, we attempt to address the impacts on system flexibility to the degree possible. These demand-side subjects are widely considered essential elements of a clean grid strategy.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Evolving Role of Demand Charges in Retail Electricity Rates

Retail electricity demand charges refer to a type of retail rate that is based on a metric of kilowatt (kW) demand rather than kilowatt-hour (kWh) energy usage. Demand charges are widely used in the commercial and industrial (C&I) electricity sectors to recover significant portions of utility revenue and are also used in residential rates in a modest but growing number of locations. This paper explores the historical context of and motivations for demand charges, describes their implementation and impacts in today's context, and uses a variety of opinions collected from relevant parties through semi-structured interviews to inform how demand charges align with four widely accepted rate design principles. This project is funded by the Department of Energy's Office of Electricity, which is interested in conducting research to understand the current state of affairs related to demand charges and how the future U.S. electricity grid will help to define retail rates.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

The DREAM approach to demand-side emissions reductions in Indonesia, 2020–2060

Indonesia’s current energy system modeling is heavily focused on the supply side, but emissions reductions in the demand sector have a significant impact on advancing Indonesia’s ambitious emissions reductions goals. To address the gap, we develop a new modeling tool DREAM Indonesia based on a bottom-up, technology-rich demand side framework and formulate projections of demand-side emissions reductions in Indonesia in 2020–2060. We find that demand-side energy efficiency and electrification can halve the growth rate of final energy demand to 1.4% annually over 2020–2060 and reverse the growing trend of emissions. The feasibility of full electrification by 2060, coupled with rapid adoption of existing technologies, positions the building sector as a model for achievable decarbonization and a cornerstone of Indonesia’s emissions reductions ambitions. In the industrial sector, extensive emissions reductions of 87% by 2060 (compared to business-as-usual) are achievable through energy efficiency improvements, alongside enhanced material efficiency measures including optimized material usage, low-carbon substitutions, innovative technologies, and increased circularity. In the transportation sector, balancing final energy demand by incorporating energy efficiency improvements across all transport modes, along with electrification particularly in road transportation, could decrease the emissions by up to 82% in 2060 compared to business-as-usual. This study provides insights and modeling approaches for rapidly growing Asian economies as well as other developing countries facing combined development and decarbonization challenges.

DREAM Indonesia↗
DOE OSTI2020

Residential Natural Gas Demand Response Potential during Extreme Cold Events in Electricity-Gas Coupled Energy Systems

In regions where natural gas is used for both power generation and heating buildings, extreme cold weather events can place the electrical system under enormous stress and challenge the ability to meet residential heating and electric demands. Residential demand response has long been used in the power sector to curtail summer electric load, but these types of programs in general have not seen adoption in the natural gas sector during winter months. Natural gas demand response (NG-DR) has garnered interest given recent extreme cold weather events in the United States; however, the magnitude of savings and potential impacts—to occupants and energy markets—are not well understood. We present a case-study analysis of the technical potential for residential natural gas demand response in the northeast United States that utilizes diverse whole-building energy simulations and high-performance computing. Our results show that NG-DR applied to residential heating systems during extreme cold-weather conditions could reduce natural gas demand by 1–29% based on conservative and aggressive strategies, respectively. This indicates a potential to improve the resilience of gas and electric systems during stressful events, which we examine by estimating the impact on energy costs and electricity generation from natural gas. We also explore relationships between hourly indoor temperatures, demand response, and building envelope efficiency.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tethys Water Demand Data

U.S. water demand varies sharply by sector and region as land use, population, weather patterns, and economic activity co-evolve. High-resolution water demand data is required to capture these dynamics, support integrated energy-water-land modeling, and local-to-regional water scarcity assessments. This dataset contains gridded (1/8 degree), monthly, multi-sector water demand dataset for the contiguous United States (CONUS) covering 1980-2100 across eight future scenarios of human-Earth system change. The dataset covers irrigation, thermoelectric, municipal (public-supply and domestic), livestock, manufacturing, and mining demands, separately for withdrawals and consumption, and includes per-cell renewable vs. non-renewable water source attributions. The dataset is validated against the latest USGS 2010-2020 water-use data for the three largest water demand sectors (Domestic, Electricity, and Irrigation), with correlations ranging from 0.73-0.95 at the HUC6 scale. The two datasets largely agree on an aggregate basis with per-sector bias falling within +/-7%, but they disagree on the spatial allocation of water with individual HUC6 basins having normalized RMSE from 68-171% and median absolute percent difference from 37-86%. This dataset advances prior global products by combining state-resolved sectoral demands from GCAM-USA, future power-plant siting from the CERF model, and scenario-consistent high-resolution climate and population forcing data across the eight scenarios.

GCAM-USA↗
DOE OSTI2020

Demand-adaptive Transit Design for Urban Transportation Hubs

In this study, we proposed a novel three-stage framework for planning the optimal demand-adaptive transit (DAT) at urban transportation hubs. Given the potential trip demand and road traffic condition, the proposed framework sequentially generates the optimal set of candidate routes, combines the outgoing routes and incoming routes at the hub, and derives the optimal fleet size and corresponding route frequency under the fixed budget. In particular, we build the route generation algorithm which maximizes passenger demand coverage with travel time deviation constraint. And a heuristic algorithm is further developed which yields near-optimal operation routes for real-time demand. The fleet optimization problem is formulated to minimize the weighted cost of energy savings, operation cost and trip revenue. We conduct comprehensive numerical experiments for planning DAT with electric buses at JFK airport in NYC using NYC taxi and for-hire vehicle trip data and GoogleMap speed data. The results show the superior performance of the proposed route generation algorithm which is able to cover citywide passenger demand with only 61 DAT routes. The results also suggest that the proposed DAT planning framework may serve over 47% of existing taxi and FHV demand by operating 18 routes using the fleet of 62 electric buses.

demand adaptive↗
DOE OSTI2020

Distributionally robust facility location problem under decision-dependent stochastic demand

While the traditional facility location problem considers exogenous demand, in some applications, locations of facilities could affect the willingness of customers to use certain types of services, e.g., carsharing, and therefore they also affect realizations of random demand. Moreover, a decision maker may not know the exact distribution of such endogenous demand and how it is affected by location choices. In this paper, we consider a distributionally robust facility location problem, in which we interpret the moments of stochastic demand as functions of facility-location decisions. We reformulate a two-stage decision-dependent distributionally robust optimization model as a monolithic formulation, and then derive exact mixed-integer linear programming reformulation as well as valid inequalities when the means and variances of demand are piecewise linear functions of location solutions. We conduct extensive computational studies, in which we compare our model with a decision-dependent deterministic model, as well as stochastic programming and distributionally robust models without the decision-dependent assumption. Here, the results show superior performance of our approach with remarkable improvement in profit and quality of service under various settings, in addition to computational speed-ups given by formulation enhancements. These results draw attention to the need of considering the impact of location decisions on customer demand within this strategic-level planning problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Business Models for Scaling Demand Flexibility Volume III – Stakeholder ecosystem management challenges, and lessons learned from U.S. programs

Load growth at the grid edge is driving increased attention to the distribution system and its ability to enable customer technology adoption in an affordable and timely manner. Key industry stakeholders, including electric utilities and regulators, can benefit from strategies to manage and balance customer needs with infrastructure investments, such as demand flexibility. This report focuses on demand flexibility—the ability to reduce, shift, shed, generate, or modulate loads in response to building and grid needs—to reduce the need for costly grid upgrades by deferring investment needs and increase system reliability by shifting electricity usage during periods of high risk. Specifically, we focus on the emerging characteristics of business models for demand flexibility as a framework to understand how demand flexibility programs generate value. In this report, we focus on demand flexibility program stakeholder ecosystem management strategies, which provide information on value delivery and describe how program implementers leverage partner capabilities and collaborate to deliver customer and grid benefits. This report discusses the role of stakeholder ecosystem management in demand flexibility programs, identifies existing challenges to effective stakeholder management, and describes lessons learned. This report is part of a series that includes reports on value propositions, customer relationship management strategies, and program life cycle.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Business Models for Scaling Demand Flexibility Volume II – Customer relationship management strategies, challenges, and lessons learned from U.S. programs

Load growth at the grid edge is driving increased attention to the distribution system and its ability to enable customer technology adoption in an affordable and timely manner. Key industry stakeholders, including electric utilities and regulators, can benefit from strategies to manage and balance customer needs with infrastructure investments, such as demand flexibility. This report focuses on demand flexibility—the ability to reduce, shift, shed, generate, or modulate loads in response to building and grid needs—to reduce the need for costly grid upgrades by deferring investment needs and increase system reliability by shifting electricity usage during periods of high risk. Specifically, we focus on the emerging characteristics of business models for demand flexibility as a framework to understand how demand flexibility programs generate value. In this report, we focus on demand flexibility program customer relationship management strategies, which provide information on value creation and focus on ensuring customers can navigate programs smoothly. This report discusses the role of customer relationship management strategies in demand flexibility programs, characterizes customer relationship management strategies that can be considered during program design and implementation, identifies existing challenges to customer relationship management strategies, and describes lessons learned. This report is part of a series that includes reports on value propositions, stakeholder ecosystem management, and program life cycle.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2018

Mobilizing the anti-duck brigade: technology and market pathways for load-shifting demand response in California

With rapidly increasing renewable power generation, the California electricity system is experiencing the impacts of the so-called “duck curve,” with occasional over-generation in the middle of the day, followed by rapid ramping of net demand producing a sharp evening peak. Mitigating this pattern will require novel demand-side management approaches to shifting demand away from high net demand periods and toward high renewables generation periods. In this paper, drawing from more than 200,000 individual residential, commercial, and industrial customers’ hourly smart meter data, we disaggregate load shapes for certain key end-uses and then average the results across a highly granular set of customer segments by sector, building type, demand profile and geographic region, to yield a library of characteristic daily load profiles (“clusters”) for different end-uses and seasons. By categorizing the library into particularly desirable or undesirable load shapes in the context of mitigating the duck curve, we can gain insight into specific technologies, seasonal effects, or site-level attributes that may serve as helpful levers to use in developing future load-shifting programs. Based on these insights, we develop recommendations on technologies and new market structures and incentives that can create a future demand curve that more closely matches renewable generation patterns.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗