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The response of tropical cyclone hazard to natural and forced patterns of warming
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Amplified threat of tropical cyclones to US offshore wind energy in a changing climate
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A GPU-accelerated simulation of rapid intensification of a tropical cyclone with observed heating
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Inferring Causal Relationships between Tropopause Polar Vortices and Arctic Cyclones [Slides]
Causal inference methods are important to complement predictive machine learning models to improve theoretical understanding of the underlying system in climate science. Granger causality (GC) can determine whether time series value of one variable (e.g., X) can predict the future values of another variable (e.g., Y), but not the other way around.
Tropical Cyclone Wind Speeds
The RAFT TC model is used to simulate storms for historical and future climates using CMIP6 environmental conditions.
Impacts of Latent Energy and Snow Fall Speed on a Wintertime Midlatitude Cyclone
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Five-day track forecast skills of WRF model for the western North Pacific tropical cyclones
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Madden-Julian Oscillation Mediated Tropical cyclone Statistics over the North Atlantic Ocean Basin
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An Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Structures in the HighResMIP Simulations against Satellite Observations
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Climatological Relationship between Arctic Cyclone and Tropospheric Polar Vortex
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Air‐Ice‐Ocean Coupling during a Strong Mid‐Winter Cyclone: Observing Coupled Dynamic Interactions across Scales
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The Response of Tropical Cyclone Inner Core and Outer Rainband Precipitation to Warming in Idealized Convection‐Permitting WRF
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Design of a gas-solid-solid separator to remove ash from circulating fluidized bed reactors
Cyclones are one of the most common types of gas-solid separators used in circulating fluidized bed boilers. However, cyclones typically do not allow ash to leave the system through the cyclone exit, causing ash to build up in the fluidized bed and necessitating additional systems to remove ash that builds up in the bed. In this study, an alternative “disengager” gas-solid separator is proposed as a way of inherently separating small and large solids, resulting in a gas-solid-solid separation system where ash is allowed to leave the system along with gas while the desired fluidized bed material is retained. Unlike cyclones, which rely on centrifugal force to separate solids and gas, the disengager separates based on entrainment velocity of the particles. Upwards-flowing gas and particles strike a deflection plate and enter the disengaging chamber where particles with low terminal velocity such as ash fines flow with the gas, while larger particles such as sand fall to the bottom of the separator and are returned to the fluidized bed. In this study, several different proposed disengager configurations are simulated and compared to a typical cyclone using computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations. Furthermore, it was found that separation efficiency in the disengager is strongly influenced by the size of the deflection plate, rather than by the size of the unit itself. The predicted separation efficiency showed that compared to a cyclone, the disengager design allows significantly more ash to exit the system but retains a similar amount of desirable material. Additionally, the disengager was predicted to not suffer significantly more erosion that a cyclone.
Intense windstorms in the northeastern United States
Abstract. Windstorms are a major natural hazard in many countries. The objective of this study is to identify and characterize intense windstorms during the last 4 decades in the US Northeast and determine both the sources of cyclones responsible for these events and the manner in which those cyclones differ from the cyclone climatology. The windstorm detection is based on the spatial extent of locally extreme wind speeds at 100 m height from the ERA5 reanalysis database. During the top 10 windstorms, wind speeds exceed their local 99.9th percentile over at least one-third of land-based ERA5 grid cells in this high-population-density region of the USA. Maximum sustained wind speeds at 100 m during these windstorms range from 26 to over 43 ms−1, with wind speed return periods exceeding 6.5 to 106 years (considering the top 5 % of grid cells during each storm). Property damage associated with these storms, with inflation adjusted to January 2020, ranges from USD 24 million to over USD 29 billion. Two of these windstorms are linked to decaying tropical cyclones, three are Alberta clippers, and the remaining storms are Colorado lows. Two of the 10 re-intensified off the east coast, leading to development of nor'easters. These windstorms followed frequently observed cyclone tracks but exhibit maximum intensities as measured using 700 hPa relative vorticity and mean sea level pressure that is 5–10 times the mean values for cyclones that followed similar tracks over this 40-year period. The time evolution of wind speeds and concurrent precipitation for those windstorms that occurred after the year 2000 exhibit good agreement with in situ ground-based and remote sensing observations, plus storm damage reports, indicating that the ERA5 reanalysis data have a high degree of fidelity for large, damaging windstorms such as these. A larger pool of the top 50 largest windstorms exhibit evidence of only weak serial clustering, which is in contrast to the relatively strong serial clustering of windstorms in Europe.
Air-sea interactions yielding rapid Beaufort Sea ice losses during the 2021 ONR THINICE Pilot Field Campaign
Seasonal sea ice coverage has declined in the Pacific Arctic region. Losses of the ice cover have modified the region’s surface heat and momentum fluxes providing weather systems more direct interaction with the upper ocean. For example, recent cyclones that have passed over these waters have initiated multiple air-sea interactions and have impacted mixed layer depth, wave properties, and sea ice mass budgets due to diabatic and/or advective processes. As a United States Office of Naval Research (ONR) Departmental Research initiative, one key component of the ONR THINICE program was to advance knowledge on Arctic cyclone coupling with the ocean surface, its ice cover, and understand how such coupling can lead to rapid ice loss. Leading up to the primary field campaign in August 2022, a pilot field campaign from 19 August to 13 September 2021 focused in Utqiagvik, Alaska and Longyearbyen, Svalbard was carried out. This period was marked by frequent Arctic cyclones, periods of strong low-level winds, and stints of extreme short-term Beaufort Sea ice area losses. Cyclones traversed these waters much more frequently than usual during this 26-day period, but did not exhibit extreme central pressures indicative of high intensity and impactful storms. Using ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis fields, CERES and AIRS surface flux retrievals, and in situ sensor data collected from ice-tethered profilers and ice mass balance buoys, we highlight air-sea-ice interactions in the Beaufort Sea during and between these cyclones leading up to extreme ice loss events. Our case study analysis is aimed at understanding how Arctic cyclones, including air-sea interactions prompted by their passage over the marginal ice zone, influence the end-of-summer ice conditions and ice loss events. This study provides an example where frequent, yet weak storms drive rather large marginal sea-scale losses albeit with heterogenous sea ice effects at local scales.
The Role of Multiscale Interaction in Tropical Cyclogenesis and Its Predictability in Near-Global Aquaplanet Cloud-Resolving Simulations
Tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) is a multiscale process that involves interactions between large-scale circulation and small-scale convection. A near-global aquaplanet cloud-resolving model (NGAqua) with 4-km horizontal grid spacing that produces tropical cyclones (TCs) is used to investigate TCG and its predictability. This study analyzes an ensemble of three 20-day NGAqua simulations, with initial white-noise perturbations of low-level humidity. TCs develop spontaneously from the northern edge of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), where large-scale flows and tropical convection provide necessary conditions for barotropic instability. Zonal bands of positive low-level absolute vorticity organize into cyclonic vortices, some of which develop into TCs. A new algorithm is developed to track the cyclonic vortices. A vortex-following framework analysis of the low-level vorticity budget shows that vertical stretching of absolute vorticity due to convective heating contributes positively to the vorticity spinup of the TCs. A case study and composite analyses suggest that sufficient humidity is key for convective development. TCG in these three NGAqua simulations undergoes the same series of interactions. The locations of cyclonic vortices are broadly predetermined by planetary-scale circulation and humidity patterns associated with ITCZ breakdown, which are predictable up to 10 days. Whether and when the cyclonic vortices become TCs depend on the somewhat more random feedback between convection and vorticity.
Large-Scale Synoptic Systems and Fog During the C-FOG Field Experiment
Abstract The goal of this work is to summarize synoptic meteorological conditions during the Coastal Fog (C-FOG) field project that took place onshore and offshore of the Avalon Peninsula, Newfoundland, from 25 August until 8 October 2018. Visibility was measured at three locations at the Ferryland supersite that are about 1 km from each other, and at two additional sites 66 and 76 km to the north. Supporting meteorological measurements included surface winds, air temperature, humidity, pressure, radiation, cloud-base height, and atmospheric thermodynamic profiles from radiosonde soundings. Statistics are presented for surface measurements during fog events including turbulence kinetic energy, net longwave radiation, visibility, and precipitation. Eleven fog events are observed at Ferryland. Each significant fog event is related to a large-scale cyclonic system. The longest fog event is due to interaction of a northern deep low and a tropical cyclone. Fog occurrence is also examined across Atlantic Canada by including Sable Island, Yarmouth, Halifax, and Sydney. It is concluded that at Ferryland, all significant fog events occur under a cyclonic system while at Sable Island all significant fog events occur under both cyclonic and anticyclonic systems. The fog-formation mechanism involves cloud lowering and stratus broadening or only stratus broadening for the cyclonic systems while for the anticyclonic systems it is stratus broadening or radiation. Although widely cited as the main cause of fog in Atlantic Canada, advection fog is not found to be the primary or sole fog type in the events examined.