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NASA NTRS2023

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Map-Based Noise Simulations for DR6

The increasing statistical power of cosmic microwave background (CMB) datasets requires a commensurate effort in understanding their noise properties. The noise in maps from ground-based instruments is dominated by large-scale correlations, which poses a modeling challenge. This paper develops novel models of the complex noise covariance structure in the Atacama Cosmology Telescope Data Release 6 (ACT DR6) maps. We first enumerate the noise properties that arise from the combination of the atmosphere and the ACT scan strategy. We then prescribe a class of Gaussian, map-based noise models, including a new wavelet-based approach that uses directional wavelet kernels for modeling correlated instrumental noise. The models are empirical, whose only inputs are a small number of independent realizations of the same region of sky. We evaluate the performance of these models against the ACT DR6 data by drawing ensembles of noise realizations. Applying these simulations to the ACT DR6 power spectrum pipeline reveals a ≥ 20% excess in the covariance matrix diagonal when compared to an analytic expression that assumes noise properties are uniquely described by their power spectrum. Along with our public code, mnms, this work establishes a necessary element in the science pipelines of both ACT DR6 and future ground-based CMB experiments such as the Simons Observatory (SO).

CMBR experiments↗

NASA NTRS1986

Satellite rainfall retrieval by logistic regression

The potential use of logistic regression in rainfall estimation from satellite measurements is investigated. Satellite measurements provide covariate information in terms of radiances from different remote sensors.The logistic regression technique can effectively accommodate many covariates and test their significance in the estimation. The outcome from the logistical model is the probability that the rainrate of a satellite pixel is above a certain threshold. By varying the thresholds, a rainrate histogram can be obtained, from which the mean and the variant can be estimated. A logistical model is developed and applied to rainfall data collected during GATE, using as covariates the fractional rain area and a radiance measurement which is deduced from a microwave temperature-rainrate relation. It is demonstrated that the fractional rain area is an important covariate in the model, consistent with the use of the so-called Area Time Integral in estimating total rain volume in other studies. To calibrate the logistical model, simulated rain fields generated by rainfield models with prescribed parameters are needed. A stringent test of the logistical model is its ability to recover the prescribed parameters of simulated rain fields. A rain field simulation model which preserves the fractional rain area and lognormality of rainrates as found in GATE is developed. A stochastic regression model of branching and immigration whose solutions are lognormally distributed in some asymptotic limits has also been developed.

Chiu, Long S.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Interval prediction in structural dynamic analysis

Methods for assessing the predictive accuracy of structural dynamic models are examined with attention given to the effects of modal mass, stiffness, and damping uncertainties. The methods are based on a nondeterministic analysis called 'interval prediction' in which interval variables are used to describe parameters and responses that are unknown. Statistical databases for generic modeling uncertainties are derived from experimental data and incorporated analytically to evaluate responses. Covariance matrices of modal mass, stiffness, and damping parameters are propagated numerically in models of large space structures by means of three methods. The test data tend to fall within the predicted intervals of uncertainty determined by the statistical databases. The present findings demonstrate the suitability of using data from previously analyzed and tested space structures for assessing the predictive accuracy of an analytical model.

Hasselman, Timothy K.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Continuum Covariance Propagation for Understanding Variance Loss in Advective Systems

We demonstrate for state dynamics governed by the continuity equation and related hyperbolic partial differential equations that significant, spurious variance loss occurs during covariance propagation by traditional methods used in data assimilation, even at full rank. This inaccurate variance evolution is caused not by numerical dissipation, but rather by a discontinuous change in the continuum covariance dynamics as correlation lengths tend to zero.

Shay Gilpin↗

NASA NTRS1993

An investigative study of multispectral data compression for remotely-sensed images using vector quantization and difference-mapped shift-coding

A study is conducted to investigate the effects and advantages of data compression techniques on multispectral imagery data acquired by NASA's airborne scanners at the Stennis Space Center. The first technique used was vector quantization. The vector is defined in the multispectral imagery context as an array of pixels from the same location from each channel. The error obtained in substituting the reconstructed images for the original set is compared for different compression ratios. Also, the eigenvalues of the covariance matrix obtained from the reconstructed data set are compared with the eigenvalues of the original set. The effects of varying the size of the vector codebook on the quality of the compression and on subsequent classification are also presented. The output data from the Vector Quantization algorithm was further compressed by a lossless technique called Difference-mapped Shift-extended Huffman coding. The overall compression for 7 channels of data acquired by the Calibrated Airborne Multispectral Scanner (CAMS), with an RMS error of 15.8 pixels was 195:1 (0.41 bpp) and with an RMS error of 3.6 pixels was 18:1 (.447 bpp). The algorithms were implemented in software and interfaced with the help of dedicated image processing boards to an 80386 PC compatible computer. Modules were developed for the task of image compression and image analysis. Also, supporting software to perform image processing for visual display and interpretation of the compressed/classified images was developed.

Jaggi, S.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Orbit-determination performance of Doppler data for interplanetary cruise trajectories. Part 1: Error analysis methodology

An error covariance analysis methodology is used to investigate different weighting schemes for two-way (coherent) Doppler data in the presence of transmission-media and observing-platform calibration errors. The analysis focuses on orbit-determination performance in the interplanetary cruise phase of deep-space missions. Analytical models for the Doppler observable and for transmission-media and observing-platform calibration errors are presented, drawn primarily from previous work. Previously published analytical models were improved upon by the following: (1) considering the effects of errors in the calibration of radio signal propagation through the troposphere and ionosphere as well as station-location errors; (2) modelling the spacecraft state transition matrix using a more accurate piecewise-linear approximation to represent the evolution of the spacecraft trajectory; and (3) incorporating Doppler data weighting functions that are functions of elevation angle, which reduce the sensitivity of the estimated spacecraft trajectory to troposphere and ionosphere calibration errors. The analysis is motivated by the need to develop suitable weighting functions for two-way Doppler data acquired at 8.4 GHz (X-band) and 32 GHz (Ka-band). This weighting is likely to be different from that in the weighting functions currently in use; the current functions were constructed originally for use with 2.3 GHz (S-band) Doppler data, which are affected much more strongly by the ionosphere than are the higher frequency data.

Ulvestad, J. S.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A preliminary analysis of the covariation of surface and midtropospheric temperatures

Monthly, seasonal, and annual averages of surface temperatures and midtropospheric (850-300 hPa) layer-mean temperatures for a global network of 100 stations are analyzed for the periods 1950-87 and 1979-88. The periods were selected on the basis of available data products. A preliminary analysis of the covariation between surface temperatures and midtroposphere layer-mean temperatures indicates a strong correlation in the winter hemispheres over midlatitudes and a much weaker correlation in most of the tropics. Results are compared with other in-situ data sets and with satellite Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) data.

Elms, Joe D.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sampling Functions from Gaussian Processes and Structured Covariance Gaussian Networks

When learning aerodynamic models from data, it is critical to incorporate estimates of model uncertainty. This motivates the design of probabilistic aerodynamic databases which can be sampled to generate physically and statistically plausible aerodynamic models. In this talk we discuss how to sample deterministic functions from two different kinds of probabilistic models and demonstrate their use. First, Gaussian Process Regressors (GPRs) are a widely used probabilistic kernel-based model which can be thought of as Gaussian distributions over functions. GPRs are generally trained by maximizing the marginal likelihood of seeing the training data over the kernel parameter space. Sample functions are easily generated by drawing points from the Gaussian distribution at desired input points. However, when the points are not known ahead of time, the classical sampling approach is not possible since successive function samples will generate different function realizations. We present an approach for sampling consistent function evaluations from a GPR over multiple samples. Second, we describe a neural network architecture which learns a conditional Gaussian distribution by maximizing the marginal likelihood at each point in the input space. We then discuss and compare several options for generating sample functions which match this distribution. Finally, we demonstrate the use of these probabilistic aerodynamic models in an atmospheric reentry simulation.

Gaussian process regression↗

NASA NTRS2022

Continuum Covariance Propagation for Understanding Variance Loss in Advective Systems

Motivated by the spurious variance loss encountered during covariance propagation in atmospheric and other large-scale data assimilation systems, we consider the problem for state dynamics governed by the continuity and related hyperbolic partial differential equations. This loss of variance has been attributed to reduced-rank representations of the covariance matrix, as in ensemble methods for example, or else to the use of dissipative numerical methods. Through a combination of analytical work and numerical experiments, we demonstrate that significant variance loss, as well as gain, typically occurs during covariance propagation, even at full rank. The cause of this unusual behavior is a discontinuous change in the continuum covariance dynamics as correlation lengths become small, for instance in the vicinity of sharp gradients in the velocity field. This discontinuity in the covariance dynamics arises from hyperbolicity: the diagonal of the kernel of the covariance operator is a characteristic surface for advective dynamics. Our numerical experiments demonstrate that standard numerical methods for evolving the state are not adequate for propagating the covariance, because16they do not capture the discontinuity in the continuum covariance dynamics as correlations lengths tend to zero. Our analytical and numerical results show that this leads to significant, spurious variance loss in certain regions, and gain in others. The results suggest that developing local covariance propagation methods designed specifically to capture covariance evolution near the diagonal may prove a useful alternative to current methods of covariance propagation.

covariance propagation↗

NASA NTRS2003

Analysis and Forecast of Two Storms Characterized by Extreme Deepening Rates

Between 25 and 27 December 1999 two very intense cyclones, named Lothar and Martin, swept across northern and western France causing substantial life and property loss. In this work, the finite volume general circulation model and data assimilation system (fvDAS) developed at the Data Assimilation Office of the NASA Goddard Space and Flight Center is being used to investigate these storms. In the first part of this article the dynamics of the storms is analyzed, and some important mechanisms are unveiled. The second part describes a set of eleven data assimilation experiments to study the impact of different data types on the automated analyses. Cloud-track winds provided by EUMETSAT and surface winds from QuikSCAT are being used. These data are assimilated with a range of different parameter settings of the forecast error covariance model. The results show that generally the additional wind data set have positive impacts on the analyses: particularly, the analysis of Lothar can be slightly improved by using the Eumetsat winds, and the analysis of Martin can be strongly improved by using the full-resolution QuikSCAT winds with a more localized influence. The third part of this article is focused on the forecast of Lothar which is very well predicted in the 1-5 day range by the fvDAS system.

Reale, Oreste↗

NASA NTRS1999

Measuring Greenland Ice Mass Variation With Gravity Recovery and the Climate Experiment Gravity and GPS

The response of the Greenland ice sheet to climate change could significantly alter sea level. The ice sheet was much thicker at the last glacial maximum. To gain insight into the global change process and the future trend, it is important to evaluate the ice mass variation as a function of time and space. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission to fly in 2001 for 5 years will measure gravity changes associated with the current ice variation and the solid earth's response to past variations. Our objective is to assess the separability of different change sources, accuracy and resolution in the mass variation determination by the new gravity data and possible Global Positioning System (GPS) bedrock uplift measurements. We use a reference parameter state that follows a dynamic ice model for current mass variation and a variant of the Tushingham and Peltier ICE-3G deglaciation model for historical deglaciation. The current linear trend is also assumed to have started 5 kyr ago. The Earth model is fixed as preliminary reference Earth model (PREM) with four viscoelastic layers. A discrete Bayesian inverse algorithm is developed employing an isotropic Gaussian a priori covariance function over the ice sheet and time. We use data noise predicted by the University of Texas and JPL for major GRACE error sources. A 2 mm/yr uplift uncertainty is assumed for GPS occupation time of 5 years. We then carry out covariance analysis and inverse simulation using GRACE geoid coefficients up to degree 180 in conjunction with a number of GPS uplift rates. Present-day ice mass variation and historical deglaciation are solved simultaneously over 146 grids of roughly 110 km x 110 km and with 6 time increments of 3 kyr each, along with a common starting epoch of the current trend. For present-day ice thickness change, the covariance analysis using GRACE geoid data alone results in a root mean square (RMS) posterior root variance of 2.6 cm/yr, with fairly large a priori uncertainties in the parameters and a Gaussian correlation length of 350 km. Simulated inverse can successfully recover most features in the reference present-day change. The RMS difference between them over the grids is 2.8 cm/yr. The RMS difference becomes 1.1 cm/yr when both are averaged with a half Gaussian wavelength of 150 km. With a fixed Earth model, GRACE alone can separate the geoid signals due to past and current load fairly well. Shown are the reference geoid signatures of direct and elastic effects of the current trend, the viscoelastic effect of the same trend starting from 5 kyr ago, the Post Glacial Rebound (PGR), and the predicted GRACE geoid error. The difference between the reference and inverse modeled total viscoelastic signatures is also shown. Although past and current ice mass variations are allowed the same spatial scale, their geoid signals have different spatial patterns. GPS data can contribute to the ice mass determination as well. Additional information is contained in the original.

Wu, Xiao-Ping↗

NASA NTRS1991

Relative-Error-Covariance Algorithms

Two algorithms compute error covariance of difference between optimal estimates, based on data acquired during overlapping or disjoint intervals, of state of discrete linear system. Provides quantitative measure of mutual consistency or inconsistency of estimates of states. Relative-error-covariance concept applied, to determine degree of correlation between trajectories calculated from two overlapping sets of measurements and construct real-time test of consistency of state estimates based upon recently acquired data.

Bierman, Gerald J.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Updated dispersion analysis for the first Orbital Flight Test (OFT-1) mission

A dispersion analysis considering 3-sigma uncertainties (or perturbations) in platform, vehicle, and environmental parameters was performed for the first orbital flight test (OFT-1) mission. The dispersion analysis is based on the nominal trajectory for the OFT-1 reference flight profile and was performed to determine state vector and performance dispersions (or variations) which result from the indicated 3 sigma uncertainties. The dispersions are determined at major mission events and fixed times from liftoff (time slices). Principal error contributors to the covariance matrix are listed. The dispersion data indicates that the largest position error occurs in the down range component. At main engine cutoff and circularization, the vehicle performance uncertainties are the major contributors to down range error.

Snow, L. S.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Preliminary results from an airdata enhancement algorithm with application to high-angle-of-attack flight

A technique was developed to improve the fidelity of airdata measurements during dynamic maneuvering. This technique is particularly useful for airdata measured during flight at high angular rates and high angles of attack. To support this research, flight tests using the F-18 high alpha research vehicle (HARV) were conducted at NASA Ames Research Center, Dryden Flight Research Facility. A Kalman filter was used to combine information from research airdata, linear accelerometers, angular rate gyros, and attitude gyros to determine better estimates of airdata quantities such as angle of attack, angle of sideslip, airspeed, and altitude. The state and observation equations used by the Kalman filter are briefly developed and it is shown how the state and measurement covariance matrices were determined from flight data. Flight data are used to show the results of the technique and these results are compared to an independent measurement source. This technique is applicable to both postflight and real-time processing of data.

Moes, Timothy R.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Preliminary results from an airdata enhancement algorithm with application to high-angle-of-attack flight

A technique has been developed to improve the fidelity of airdata measurements during dynamic maneuvering. This technique is particularly useful for airdata measured during flight at high angular rates and high angles of attack. To support this research, flight tests using the F-18 high alpha research vehicle were conducted at the NASA Ames Research Center Dryden Flight Research Facility. A Kalman filter was used to combine information from research airdata, linear accelerometers, angular rate gyros, and attitude gyros to determine better estimates of airdata quantities such as angle of attack, angle of sideslip, airspeed, and altitude. This paper briefly develops the state and observation equations used by the Kalman filter and shows how the state and measurement covariance matrices were determined from flight data.

Moes, Timothy R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Polarization effects and multipolarization SAR

Imaging radar polarimeters are usually implemented using a Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) approach to give a high resolution image in two dimensions: range and azimuth. For each pixel in the image a polarimetric SAR gives sufficient information to characterize the polarimetric scattering properties of the imaged area (or target) as seen by the radar. Using a polarimetric SAR system as opposed to a single-polarization SAR system provides significantly more information about the target scattering mechanisms and allows better discrimination between different types of surfaces. In these notes a brief overview of SAR polarimetry is offered. The notes are intended as a text to accompany a lecture on SAR polarimetry as part of an AGARD-NATO course. Covered in the notes are the following: the polarization properties of electromagnetic waves; the concepts of radar scattering and measuring radar backscatter with a SAR; polarization synthesis; scattering matrix, Stokes matrix, and covariance matrix representations of polarimetric SAR data; polarization signature plots; design and calibration of polarimetric SAR systems; polarization filtering for target detection; fitting a simple model to polarimetric SAR measurements of naturally occurring features; and supervised classification of polarimetric SAR data.

Freeman, Anthony↗

NASA NTRS1995

Experience from the in-flight calibration of the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE) and Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) fixed head star trackers (FHSTs)

Since the original post-launch calibration of the FHSTs (Fixed Head Star Trackers) on EUVE (Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer) and UARS (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite), the Flight Dynamics task has continued to analyze the FHST performance. The algorithm used for inflight alignment of spacecraft sensors is described and the equations for the errors in the relative alignment for the simple 2 star tracker case are shown. Simulated data and real data are used to compute the covariance of the relative alignment errors. Several methods for correcting the alignment are compared and results analyzed. The specific problems seen on orbit with UARS and EUVE are then discussed. UARS has experienced anomalous tracker performance on an FHST resulting in continuous variation in apparent tracker alignment. On EUVE, the FHST residuals from the attitude determination algorithm showed a dependence on the direction of roll during survey mode. This dependence is traced back to time tagging errors and the original post launch alignment is found to be in error due to the impact of the time tagging errors on the alignment algorithm. The methods used by the FDF (Flight Dynamics Facility) to correct for these problems is described.

Lee, Michael↗

NASA NTRS1994

Model for the Interpretation of Hyperspectral Remote-Sensing Reflectance

Remote-sensing reflectance is easier to interpret for the open ocean than for coastal regions because the optical signals are highly coupled to the phytoplankton (e.g., chlorophyll) concentrations. For estuarine or coastal waters, variable terrigenous colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM), suspended sediments, and bottom reflectance, all factors that do not covary with the pigment concentration, confound data interpretation. In this research, remote-sensing reflectance models are suggested for coastal waters, to which contributions that are due to bottom reflectance, CDOM fluorescence, and water Raman scattering are included. Through the use of two parameters to model the combination of the backscattering coefficient and the Q factor, excellent agreement was achieved between the measured and modeled remote-sensing reflectance for waters from the West Florida Shelf to the Mississippi River plume. These waters cover a range of chlorophyll of 0.2-40 mg/cu m and gelbstoff absorption at 440 nm from 0.02-0.4/m. Data with a spectral resolution of 10 nm or better, which is consistent with that provided by the airborne visible and infrared imaging spectrometer (AVIRIS) and spacecraft spectrometers, were used in the model evaluation.

Lee, Zhongping↗