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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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The use of multispectral data in design of forest sample surveys using a computer software package, WILLIAM, is described. The system allows evaluation of a number of alternative sampling systems and, with appropriate cost data, estimates the implementation cost for each.
Natural gas pipeline cost data collected by the Oil and Gas Journal (O&GJ) for interstate pipelines constructed from 1980 through 2017 were used to develop capital cost estimating equations that are a function of pipeline diameter, length, and U.S. region. Equations were developed for material, labor, miscellaneous, and right-of-way costs, the four cost components in the O&GJ data, for six different regions of the United States (U.S.). Each equation is a function of pipeline diameter and length. Adjustment mechanisms were then developed for converting the natural gas pipeline equations into equations for estimating the costs of hydrogen pipelines. These adjustments were based in part on an analysis completed by the National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST). Here the results of this work were used to update cost models in the Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM), developed by Argonne National Laboratory for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Hydrogen Program. Our analysis shows a wide range of pipeline cost across different U.S. regions, especially with respect to labor and right-of-way costs. The developed cost formulas for hydrogen pipelines are both important and timely as hydrogen is being considered as a zero-carbon energy carrier with the potential to decarbonize all energy sectors, and the cost of hydrogen transportation is essential for techno-economic analysis of its potential use in these sectors.
With the development of data-driven techniques, building energy prediction on a district level has attracted increasing attention in recent years for revealing energy use patterns and reduction potentials. However, data acquisition in large building groups is difficult and adjacent buildings also interact with each other. To reduce data cost and incorporate the inter-building impact with the data-driven building energy model, this study proposes a deep learning predictive approach that fuses the building network model with a long short-term memory learning model for district-scale building energy modeling. The building network was constructed based on correlations between the energy use intensity of buildings, which can significantly reduce the computational complexity of the deep learning models for energy dynamic prediction. Five typical building groups with energy use data from 2015 to 2018 on two institutional campuses were selected to perform the validation experiment with TensorFlow. Based on the prediction error assessments, the results suggest that for total building energy use intensity prediction, the proposed model can achieve a mean absolute percentage error of 6.66% and a root mean square error of 0.36 kWh/m 2 , compared to 12.05% and 0.63 kWh/m 2 of the conventional artificial neural network model and to 11.06% and 0.89 kWh/m 2 for the support vector regression model.
Pumped Storage Hydropower (PSH) is currently the largest source of utility-scale electricity storage in the U.S. and worldwide. As the accelerating deployment of variable renewable technologies creates opportunity and value for energy storage, it has become increasingly important to characterize PSH costs to understand how it competes. Site-specific considerations and limited cost data in the public domain make it difficult to estimate capital costs for potential new PSH sites. This report documents a spreadsheet-based tool that addresses this challenge and creates a component-level bottom-up cost model for PSH that can be made publicly available for widespread use. It uses detailed site-level physical characteristics and design specifications to calculate key performance and cost parameters for individual components and the project as a whole. The model was developed in consultation with HDR, Inc. and Small Hydro Consulting to ensure it aligns with industry expectations. It enables PSH cost exploration across a wide range of system assumptions and could be customized or extended for the needs of a variety of users.
The relative manufacturing costs were estimated for large high technology fan blades prepared by advanced composite fabrication methods using seven candidate materials/process systems. These systems were identified as laminated resin matrix composite, filament wound resin matrix composite, superhybrid solid laminate, superhybrid spar/shell, metal matrix composite, metal matrix composite with a spar and shell, and hollow titanium. The costs were calculated utilizing analytical process models and all cost data are presented as normalized relative values where 100 was the cost of a conventionally forged solid titanium fan blade whose geometry corresponded to a size typical of 42 blades per disc. Four costs were calculated for each of the seven candidate systems to relate the variation of cost on blade size. Geometries typical of blade designs at 24, 30, 36 and 42 blades per disc were used. The impact of individual process yield factors on costs was also assessed as well as effects of process parameters, raw materials, labor rates and consumable items.
The effects on life cycle costs (LCC) of major design and performance technology parameters for multi kW LEO and GEO energy storage subsystems using NiCd and NiH2 batteries and fuel cell/electrolysis cell devices were examined. Design, performance and LCC dynamic models are developed based on mission and system/subsystem requirements and existing or derived physical and cost data relationships. The models are exercised to define baseline designs and costs. Then the major design and performance parameters are each varied to determine their influence on LCC around the baseline values.
Historically, NASA human spaceflight planning has included healthy doses of life cycle cost analysis. Planners put projects and their cost estimates in a budget context. Estimated costs became expected budgets. Regardless, real budgets rarely matched expectations. So plans would come and go as NASA canceled projects. New projects would arise and the cycle would begin again. Repeatedly, NASA schedule and performance ambitions come up against costs growing at double-digit rates while budgets barely rise a couple of percent a year. Significant skepticism greets proposed NASA programs at birth, as cost estimates for new projects are traditionally very high, and worse, far off the mark for those carried forward. In this environment the current "capability driven framework" for NASA human spaceflight evolved, where long term life cycle cost analysis are even viewed as possibly counter-productive. Here, a space exploration project, for example the Space Launch System, focuses on immediate goals. A life cycle is that of a project, not a program, and for only that span of time to a near term milestone like a first test launch. Unfortunately, attempting to avoid some pitfalls in long-term life cycle cost analysis breeds others. Government audits have noted that limiting the scope of cost analysis "does not provide the transparency necessary to assess long-term affordability" making it difficult to understand if NASA "is progressing in a cost-effective and affordable manner." Even in this short-term framework, NASA realizes the importance of long-term considerations, that it must "maximize the efficiency and sustainability of the Exploration Systems development programs", that this is "critical to free resources for re-investment...such as other required deep space exploration capabilities." Assuming the value of long-term life cycle cost analysis, where due diligence meets reconnaissance, and accepting past shortcomings, the work here approaches life cycle cost analysis for human spaceflight differently. 1) If costs have traditionally been so high that adding them up is discouraging, are there any new facts on the ground offering paths to significantly lower costs? 2) If NASA's spaceflight budget and process is an over-arching constraint, with its planning limitations favoring short-term outlooks, is there a way to step outside the budget box? 3) If life cycle answers have historically been too uncertain to be useful, is there a process where stakeholders gain valuable insights merely from emphasizing a common understanding around questions? We analyze the potential life cycle cost of assorted NASA human spaceflight architectures - an architecture as a sum of individual systems, working together. With the prior questions of high costs, limited budgets and uncertainties in mind, public private partnerships are central in these architectures. The cost data for current commercial public private partnerships is encouraging, as are cost estimates for future partnership approaches beyond low Earth orbit. Private capital, directly or indirectly, an ingredient of public private partnerships, may be a significant factor in finding a path around the limits of the NASA spaceflight budget. Also, understanding and reviewing the pros, cons and uncertainties of assorted architectures can assist in developing a common understanding around key questions as important if not more so than the numbers and answers. Lastly, a scenario planning technique is briefly explored that can mature a common understanding about the agencies situation at hand and how diverse stakeholders can go forward together. Scenario planning, rather than focusing on answers, places emphasis on stakeholders developing a common understanding about the future. Putting aside costs, this is especially true of questions about sustainability and growth, results, benefits and expectations. While efficiency exercises or analysis look to reduce resources in one place to apply them elsewhere, moving around slices in a pie, scenario planning can get at the heart of the matter, growing the pie, transforming it, and making the pieces relevant. Especially important is the question of sustainability for different scenarios in the broad sense of the word - not just the narrow ability to survive or continue, but also the ability to adapt, prosper and grow.
We analyze the potential life cycle cost of assorted NASA human spaceflight architectures an architecture as a sum of individual systems, working together. With the prior questions of high costs, limited budgets and uncertainties in mind, public private partnerships are central in these architectures. The cost data for current commercial public private partnerships is encouraging, as are cost estimates for future partnership approaches beyond low Earth orbit.
The CubeSat Or Microsat Probabilistic and AnalogiesCost Tool, or COMPACT, is a NASA Headquarters fundedeffort to fill the gap in cost estimating capabilities for CubeSats,as well as other microsat spacecraft. The COMPACT team hasfocused mainly on CubeSats to date, and has collected technical,programmatic and cost data on dozens of flown CubeSatsmissions led by NASA, research labs, and universities. In late2019, the team released the first tool prototype which uses a nonparametricregression technique, k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN),on actual data from historical CubeSat missions to produceearly ballpark analogy-based cost estimates for new CubeSatconcepts. Since the KNN prototype was first released, theCOMPACT team has normalized 17 new missions to be addedto the model in COMPACT V2. COMPACT V2 also featureschanges to the KNN tool algorithm including the introduction ofPrincipal Component Analysis (PCA) to the model developmentprocess and changes to the input parameters which have madethe analogy results more intuitive and have improved modelperformance. This paper describes the current COMPACTKNN dataset, improvements made to the model in COMPACTV2, an assessment of current model performance, and a forwardlook at COMPACT’s planned future enhancements.
The industry for producing silicon solar cells and modules has grown remarkably over the past decades, with more than a 100-fold reduction in price over the past 45?years. The main solar cell fabrication technology has shifted over that time and is currently dominated by the passivated emitter and rear cell (PERC). Other technologies are expected to increase in market share, including tunnel-oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) and heterojunction technology (HJT). In this paper, we examine the cost potential for using atomic layer deposition (ALD) to form transition metal oxide (TMO) layers (MoO x , TiO x and aluminium-doped zinc oxide [AZO]) to use as lower cost alternatives of the p-doped, n-doped and indium tin oxide (ITO) layers, respectively, the layers normally used in HJT solar cells. Using a bottom-up cost and uncertainty model with equipment cost data and process experience in the lab, we find that the production cost of these variations will likely be lower per wafer than standard HJT, with the main cost drivers being the cost of the ALD precursors at high-volume production. We then considered what efficiency is required for these sequences to be cost effective in $/W and discuss whether these targets are technically feasible. This work motivates further work in developing these ALD TMO processes to increase their efficiency towards their theoretical limits to take advantage of the processing cost advantage.
Designed for building energy managers, utilities and firms providing energy services, FEDS provides a comprehensive and user-friendly method for users to quickly and accurately identifying energy conversion and end-use technology improvements that offer maximum savings in energy usage and cost. FEDS enables the user to assess energy efficiency and consumption, identify retrofit opportunities, select minimum life cycle costs, determine payback, and prioritize investments in energy efficiency retrofit projects for multiple or single buildings across a particular site. As part of the life-cycle cost optimization it also considers several options for partial or complete abandonment of central energy plants including: individual technologies dropping off a thermal loop, a loop and all technologies dropping off a central plant, and all technologies and loops dropping off a central plant resulting in its complete abandonment. Improvements in release 7.0 include: FEDS 7.0 is now a full hourly simulation model (runs every hour of the year as opposed to the previous simplified hourly approach which ran 9 24-hour periods to represent each month). Enhanced building operation and occupancy modeling; New HVAC technology options (VAV, Economizers, Demand Controlled Ventilation, Terminal Reheat, Subcool Dehumidification); Additional chiller types; New lighting technologies (LED, Halogen, Induction, additional fluorescent options); Completely updated retrofit cost and performance data; Regional cost data tied to zip code (previously applied state level averages); Updated and enhanced reporting capabilities; and New pier floor model
A basic model is presented for estimating the cost of unmanned lunar and planetary programs. Cost data were collected and analyzed for eight lunar and planetary programs. Total cost was separated into the following components: labor, overhead, materials, and technical support. The study determined that direct labor cost of unmanned lunar and planetary programs comprises 30 percent of the total program cost. Twelve program categories were defined for modeling: six spacecraft subsystem categories (science, structure, propulsion, electrical power, communications, and guidance and integration, test and quality assurance, launch and flight operations, ground equipment, systems analysis and engineering, and program management). An analysis showed that on a percentage basis, direct labor cost and direct labor manhours compare on a one-to-one ratio. Therefore, direct labor hours is used as the parameter for predicting cost, with the advantage of eliminating the effect of inflation on the analysis.
This paper describes preliminary designs of tilt-rotor and tandem-rotor helicopter V/STOL aircraft for the 1958 short-haul market. These designs include a tilt-rotor aircraft designed for STOL-only operation. The baseline designs are presented with technological and cost data. The impact of noise and ride qualities on aircraft size and cost, and on passenger acceptance are discussed. The results of the study are compared against competitive alternatives in air transportation.
A systematic rationale for selecting a cost-effective guidance and navigation (G & N) autonomy level for the solar electric propulsion stage (SEPS) vehicle is developed. After a definition of autonomy levels, a mission analysis is performed for representative SEPS missions using realistic G & N sensor hardware. Cost data for fabricating, integrating and refurbishing onboard avionics hardware and the ground costs corresponding to each autonomy level are generated. Results are presented that indicate performance of various G & N sensor hardware sets and the dominating factors which influence G & N autonomy level selection.
The conversion of two T-39 aircraft into lift cruise fan research and technology vehicles is discussed. The concept is based upon modifying the T-39A (NA265-40) Sabreliner airframe into a V/STOL configuration by incorporating two LCF-459 lift cruise fans and three YJ-97 gas generators. The propulsion concept provides the thrust for horizontal flight or lift for vertical flight by deflection of bifurcated nozzles while maintaining engine out safety throughout the flight envelope. The configuration meets all the study requirements specified for the design with control powers in VTOL and conversion in excess of the requirement making it an excellent vehicle for research and development. The study report consists of two volumes; Volume 1 (Reference a) contains background data detailed description and technical substantiation of the aircraft. Volume 2 includes cost data, scheduling and program planning not addressed in Volume 1.
During the past decade, the technology to automate demand response (DR) in buildings and industrial facilities has advanced significantly. Automation allows rapid, repeatable, reliable operation. This study focuses on costs for DR automation in commercial buildings with some discussion on residential buildings and industrial facilities. DR automation technology relies on numerous components, including communication systems, hardware and software gateways, standards-based messaging protocols, controls and integration platforms, and measurement and telemetry systems. This report compares cost data from several DR automation programs and pilot projects, evaluates trends in the cost per unit of DR and kilowatts (kW) available from automated systems, and applies a standard naming convention and classification or taxonomy for system elements. Median costs for the 56 installed automated DR systems studied here are about $200/kW. The deviation around this median is large with costs in some cases being an order of magnitude great or less than the median. This wide range is a result of variations in system age, size of load reduction, sophistication, and type of equipment included in cost analysis. The costs to automate fast DR systems for ancillary services are not fully analyzed in this report because additional research is needed to determine the total cost to install, operate, and maintain these systems. However, recent research suggests that they could be developed at costs similar to those of existing hot-summer DR automation systems. This report considers installation and configuration costs and does include the costs of owning and operating DR automation systems. Future analysis of the latter costs should include the costs to the building or facility manager costs as well as utility or third party program manager cost.
During the past decade, the technology to automate demand response (DR) in buildings and industrial facilities has advanced significantly. Automation allows rapid, repeatable, reliable operation. This study focuses on costs for DR automation in commercial buildings with some discussion on residential buildings and industrial facilities. DR automation technology relies on numerous components, including communication systems, hardware and software gateways, standards-based messaging protocols, controls and integration platforms, and measurement and telemetry systems. This paper discusses the impact factors that contribute to the costs of automated DR systems, with a focus on OpenADR 1.0 and 2.0 systems. In addition, this report compares cost data from several DR automation programs and pilot projects, evaluates trends in the cost per unit of DR and kilowatts (kW) available from automated systems, and applies a standard naming convention and classification or taxonomy for system elements. In summary, median costs for the 56 installed automated DR systems studied here are about $200/kW. The deviation around this median is large with costs in some cases being an order of magnitude greater or less than median. Costs to automate fast DR systems for ancillary services are not fully analyzed in this report because additional research is needed to determine the total such costs.
Aspects of incorporating a thermal energy transport system (ETS) into a field of parabolic dish collectors for industrial process heat (IPH) applications were investigated. Specific objectives are to: (1) verify the mathematical optimization of pipe diameters and insulation thicknesses calculated by a computer code; (2) verify the cost model for pipe network costs using conventional pipe network construction; (3) develop a design and the associated production costs for incorporating risers and downcomers on a low cost concentrator (LCC); (4) investigate the cost reduction of using unconventional pipe construction technology. The pipe network design and costs for a particular IPH application, specifically solar thermally enhanced oil recovery (STEOR) are analyzed. The application involves the hybrid operation of a solar powered steam generator in conjunction with a steam generator using fossil fuels to generate STEOR steam for wells. It is concluded that the STEOR application provides a baseline pipe network geometry used for optimization studies of pipe diameter and insulation thickness, and for development of comparative cost data, and operating parameters for the design of riser/downcomer modifications to the low cost concentrator.