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NASA NTRS1979

Results of a statistical approach to rainfall estimation using Nimbus 5 6.7 micrometers and 11.5 micrometers THIR data

Nimbus 5 6.7 mm and 11.5 mm temperature humidity infrared radiometer (THIR) data were used in a simple multiple regression scheme to test the feasibility of using these data to estimate hourly rainfall. Throughout the test area (85 W to 105 W and 45 N to 30 N) subareas (8 deg x 6 deg) were chosen from which point to point and areal statistics were obtained. Four subsets of data were used. The first consisted of only those surface stations indicating precipitation whose latitude and longitude coincided with the THIR grid points. A second used surface stations 0.1 degree from the THIR grid points. The third was a combination of subsets one and two. A reciprocal distance weighting scheme was used to derive precipitation values in data sparse areas. A fourth subset was made using these data combined with the data from subsets one and two. Point estimates resulted in negative correlations between estimated and grid derived "surface" precipitation. One degree areal estimates showed a slight improvement with a correlation coefficient of approximately 0.11. Single regression areal estimates resulted in correlations of approximately 0.11 and 0.20 for the 6.7 mm and 11.5 mm data respectively. These poor results were attributed to problems which are inherent in the satellite data (location errors, short temporal span of data, wavelength of sensors, etc.) and the lack of sufficient surface data to better verify the satellite estimate.

Ormsby, J. P.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Global Multi-Year O3-CO Correlation Patterns from Models and TES Satellite Observations

The correlation between measured tropospheric ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO) has been used extensively in tropospheric chemistry studies to explore the photochemical characteristics of different regions and to evaluate the ability of models to capture these characteristics. Here, we present the first study that uses multi-year, global, vertically resolved, simultaneous and collocated O3 and CO satellite (Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer) measurements, to determine this correlation in the middle/lower free troposphere for two different seasons, and to evaluate two chemistry-climate models. We find results that are fairly robust across different years, altitudes and timescales considered, which indicates that the correlation maps presented here could be used in future model evaluations. The highest positive correlations (around 0.8) are found in the northern Pacific during summer, which is a common feature in the observations and the G-PUCCINI model. We make quantitative comparisons between the models using a single-figure metric (C), which we define as the correlation coefficient between the modeled and the observed O3-CO correlations for different regions of the globe. On a global scale, the G-PUCCINI model shows a good performance in the summer (C =0.71) and a satisfactory performance in the winter (C = 0.52). It captures midlatitude features very well, especially in the summer, whereas the performance in regions like South America or Central Africa is weaker. The UKCA model (C = 0.46/0.15 for July-August/December-January on a global scale) performs better in certain regions, such as the tropics in winter, and it captures some of the broad characteristics of summer extratropical correlations, but it systematically underestimates the O3-CO correlations over much of the globe. It is noteworthy that the correlations look very different in the two models, even though the ozone distributions are similar. This demonstrates that this technique provides a powerful global constraint for understanding modeled tropospheric chemical processes. We investigated the sources of the correlations by performing a series of sensitivity experiments. In these, the sign of the correlation is, in most cases, insensitive to removing different individual emissions, but its magnitude changes downwind of emission regions when applying such perturbations. Interestingly, we find that the O3-CO correlation does not solely reflect the strength of O3 photochemical production, as often assumed by earlier studies, but is more complicated and may reflect a mixture of different processes such as transport.

Voulgarakis, A.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Empirical radius formulas for canonical neutron stars from bidirectionally selecting features of equations of state in extended Bayesian analyses of observational data

Significant advancement in Bayesian inference of nuclear equation of state (EOS) from gravitational wave and x-ray observations of neutron stars (NSs) has been made by the nuclear astrophysics community especially since GW170817. By extending the traditional Bayesian analysis which normally ends at presenting the marginalized posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of individual EOS parameters and their correlations (or sometimes only the Pearson correlation coefficients which are only reliably useful when the variables are linearly correlated while they are actually often not), we search for a data-driven and robust empirical formula for the radius 𝑅 1.4 of canonical NSs in terms of the characteristic EOS parameters (features). We also identify the single most important but currently poorly known EOS parameter for determining the 𝑅 1.4 . Using three regression-model-building methodologies: bidirectional stepwise feature selection, least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) regression, and neural network regression on a large set of posterior EOSs and the corresponding 𝑅 1.4 values inferred from earlier comprehensive Bayesian analyses of NS observational data, we systematically and rigorously develop the most probable 𝑅 1.4 formulas with varying statistical accuracy and technical complexity. Here, the most important EOS parameters for determining 𝑅 1.4 are found consistently in each of the feature selection processes to be (in order of decreasing importance): curvature 𝐾 sym , slope 𝐿, skewness 𝐽 sym of nuclear symmetry energy, skewness 𝐽 0 , incompressibility 𝐾 0 of symmetric nuclear matter, and the magnitude 𝐸 sym ⁡(𝜌 0 ) of symmetry energy at the saturation density 𝜌 0 of nuclear matter.

Bayesian methods↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modulation of springtime surface sensible heating over the Tibetan Plateau on the interannual variability of East Asian dust cycle

Previous observational evidence and numerical simulations have revealed that the surface sensible heating in spring (March–April–May, MAM) over the Tibetan Plateau (TPSH) can affect the Asian regional hydrological cycle, surface energy balance, and climate through altering atmospheric heat source of the Tibetan Plateau (TP). This study aims to investigate the impacts of MAM TPSH on the interannual variability of East Asian dust cycle by using CAM4-BAM (version 4 of the Community Atmosphere Model coupled to a bulk aerosol model), MERRA-2 (version 2 of the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications) surface dust concentration, and TPSH measurements. Our simulations show that the surface dust concentrations over the East Asian (EA) dust source region and over the northwestern Pacific (NP) in MAM are significantly positively correlated with TPSH, with regionally averaged correlation coefficients of 0.49 for EA and 0.44 for NP. Similar positive correlations are also shown between the MAM TPSH measurements averaged over the 73 observation sites and the surface dust concentration from MERRA-2. Simulation-based comparisons between strongest and weakest TPSH years reveal that, the MAM surface dust concentration in the strongest TPSH years increases with relative differences of 13.1 % over EA and 36.9 % over NP. These corresponding differences are found in MERRA-2 with 22.9 % and 13.3 % over EA and NP, respectively. Further simulated results show that the processes of whole dust cycles (e.g., dust loading, emission, and transport, as well as dust deposition) are also significantly enhanced during the strongest TPSH years over EA and NP. Through enhancing the TP heat source, stronger TPSH in MAM generates an anticyclonic anomaly in middle and upper troposphere over the TP and over the downstream Pacific region, respectively. These atmospheric circulation anomalies induced by the increased TPSH result in increasing the westerly winds over both EA and NP, which in turn increases dust emissions over the dust source, and dust transport over these two regions, as well as the regional dust cycles. These results suggest that addressing the East Asian dust changes in the future climates requires considering not only increasing greenhouse gas emissions but also the variations of the TP's heat source under global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Quest for New Correlations in the Realm of the Gamma-Ray Burst—Supernova Connection

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are very energetic cosmological transients. Long GRBs are usually associated with Type Ib/c supernovae (SNe), and we refer to them as GRB-SNe. Since the associated SN for a given GRB is observed only at low redshift, a possible selection effect exists when we consider intrinsically faint sources that cannot be observed at high redshift. Thus, it is important to explore the possible relationships between GRB and SN parameters after these have been corrected for astrophysical biases due to the instrumental selection effects and redshift evolution of the variables involved. So far, only GRB prompt emission properties have been checked against the SN Ib/c properties without considering the afterglow (AG). This work investigates the existence of relationships among GRBs’ prompt and AG and associated SN properties. We investigate 91 bidimensional correlations among the SN and GRB observables before and after their correction for selection biases and evolutionary effects. As a result of this investigation, we find hints of a new correlation with a Pearson correlation coefficient >0.50 and a probability of being drawn by chance <0.05. This correlation is between the luminosity at the end of the GRB optical plateau emission and the rest-frame peak time of the SN. According to this relation, the brightest optical plateaus are accompanied by the largest peak times. This correlation is corrected for selection biases and redshift evolution and may provide new constraints for the astrophysical models associated with the GRB-SN connection.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1984

On the potential use of satellite sounder data in forecasting tropical cyclone motion

Although many prediction schemes are available, tropical cyclone track forecast errors are still unacceptably large. A primary difficulty is that tropical cyclones and their environments are poorly observed by conventional data networks. Satellite sounders, however, routinely provide numerous observations near these storms. Mean layer temperatures from the Scanning Microwave Spectrometer (SCAMS) on board the Nimbus-6 satellite are decomposed using empirical orthogonal functions, and the expansion coefficients are related to deviations from persistence track forecasts. Based on multiple correlation coefficients it appears that upper-level (250-100 mb) temperatures contain significant information about the right-angle error of the persistence forecast location. Temperatures from the 1000-500 mb layer seemed to contain little forecast information. Implications of these results for further work are offered.

Kidder, S. Q.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Satellite passive microwave rain measurement techniques for land and ocean

Multiseasonal rainfall was found to be measurable over land with satellite passive microwave data, based upon comparisons between Nimbus 7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMME) brightness temperatures (T sub B) and operational WSR-57 radar rain rates. All of the SMMR channels (bipolarized 37, 21, 18, 10.7, and 6.6. GHz T sub B) were compared to radar reflectivities for 25 SMMR passes and 234 radar scans over the U.S. during the spring, summer, and fall of 1979. It was found that the radar rain rates were closely related to the difference between 37 and 21 GHz T sub B. This result is due to the volume scattering effects of precipitation which cause emissivity decreases with frequency, as opposed to emissive surfaces (e.g., water) whose emissivities increase with frequency. Two frequencies also act to reduce the effects of thermometric temperature variations on T sub B to a miminum. During summer and fall, multiple correlation coefficients of 0.80 and 0.75 were obtained. These approach the limit of correlation that can be expected to exist between two very different data sources, especially in light of the errors attributable to manual digitization of PPI photographs of variable quality from various operational weather radar not calibrated for research purposes. During the spring, a significantly lower (0.63) correlation was found. This poorer performance was traced to cases of wet, unvegetated soil being sensed at the lower frequencies through light rain, partly negating the rain scattering signal.

Spencer, R. W.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Assessment of Thematic Mapper Band-to-band Registration by the Block Correlation Method

The design of the Thematic Mapper (TM) multispectral radiometer makes it susceptible to band-to-band misregistration. To estimate band-to-band misregistration a block correlation method is employed. This method is chosen over other possible techniques (band differencing and flickering) because quantitative results are produced. The method correlates rectangular blocks of pixels from one band against blocks centered on identical pixels from a second band. The block pairs are shifted in pixel increments both vertically and horizontally with respect to each other and the correlation coefficient for each shift position is computed. The displacement corresponding to the maximum correlation is taken as the best estimate of registration error for each block pair. Subpixel shifts are estimated by a bi-quadratic interpolation of the correlation values surrounding the maximum correlation. To obtain statistical summaries for each band combination post processing of the block correlation results performed. The method results in estimates of registration error that are consistent with expectations.

Card, D. H.↗

NASA NTRS2007

GPS-Based Reduced Dynamic Orbit Determination Using Accelerometer Data

Currently two gravity field satellite missions, CHAMP and GRACE, are equipped with high sensitivity electrostatic accelerometers, measuring the non-conservative forces acting on the spacecraft in three orthogonal directions. During the gravity field recovery these measurements help to separate gravitational and non-gravitational contributions in the observed orbit perturbations. For precise orbit determination purposes all these missions have a dual-frequency GPS receiver on board. The reduced dynamic technique combines the dense and accurate GPS observations with physical models of the forces acting on the spacecraft, complemented by empirical accelerations, which are stochastic parameters adjusted in the orbit determination process. When the spacecraft carries an accelerometer, these measured accelerations can be used to replace the models of the non-conservative forces, such as air drag and solar radiation pressure. This approach is implemented in a batch least-squares estimator of the GPS High Precision Orbit Determination Software Tools (GHOST), developed at DLR/GSOC and DEOS. It is extensively tested with data of the CHAMP and GRACE satellites. As accelerometer observations typically can be affected by an unknown scale factor and bias in each measurement direction, they require calibration during processing. Therefore the estimated state vector is augmented with six parameters: a scale and bias factor for the three axes. In order to converge efficiently to a good solution, reasonable a priori values for the bias factor are necessary. These are calculated by combining the mean value of the accelerometer observations with the mean value of the non-conservative force models and empirical accelerations, estimated when using these models. When replacing the non-conservative force models with accelerometer observations and still estimating empirical accelerations, a good orbit precision is achieved. 100 days of GRACE B data processing results in a mean orbit fit of a few centimeters with respect to high-quality JPL reference orbits. This shows a slightly better consistency compared to the case when using force models. A purely dynamic orbit, without estimating empirical accelerations thus only adjusting six state parameters and the bias and scale factors, gives an orbit fit for the GRACE B test case below the decimeter level. The in orbit calibrated accelerometer observations can be used to validate the modelled accelerations and estimated empirical accelerations computed with the GHOST tools. In along track direction they show the best resemblance, with a mean correlation coefficient of 93% for the same period. In radial and normal direction the correlation is smaller. During days of high solar activity the benefit of using accelerometer observations is clearly visible. The observations during these days show fluctuations which the modelled and empirical accelerations can not follow.

VanHelleputte, Tom↗

NASA NTRS2008

Vertical Jump Height is more Strongly Associated with Velocity and Work Performed Prior to Take-off

Vertical jump (VJ) height is commonly used as a measure of athletic capability in strength and power sports. Although VJ has been shown to be a predictor of athletic performance, it is not clear which kinetic ground reaction force (GRF) variables, such as peak force (PF), peak power (PP), peak velocity (PV), total work (TW) or impulse (Imp) are the best correlates. To determine which kinetic variables (PF, PP, PV, TW, and Imp) best correlate with VJ height. Twenty subjects (14 males, 6 females) performed three maximal countermovement VJs on a force platform (Advanced Mechanical Technology, Inc., Watertown, MA, USA). VJ jump height was calculated as the difference between standing reach and the highest reach point measured using a Vertec. PF, PP, PV, TW, and Imp were calculated using the vertical GRF data sampled at 1000 Hz from the lowest point in the countermovement through the concentric portion until take-off. GRF data were normalized to body mass measured using a standard scale (Detecto, Webb City, MO, USA). Correlation coefficients were computed between each GRF variable and VJ height using a Pearson correlation. VJ height (43.4 plus or minus 9.1 cm) was significantly correlated (p less than 0.001) with PF (998 plus or minus 321 N; r=0.51), PP (1997 plus or minus 772 W; r=0.69), PV (2.66 plus or minus 0.40 m (raised dot) s(sup -1); r=0.85), TW (259 plus or minus 93.0 kJ; r=0.82), and Imp (204 plus or minus 51.1 N(raised dot)s; r=0.67). Although all variables were correlated to VJ height, PV and TW were more strongly correlated to VJ height than PF, PP, and Imp. Therefore, since TW is equal to force times displacement, the relative displacement of the center of mass along with the forces applied during the upward movement of the jump are critical determinants of VJ height. PV and TW are key determinants of VJ height, and therefore successful training programs to increase VJ height should focus on rapid movement (PV) and TW by increasing power over time rather than focusing on PF alone.

Bentley, J. R.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Co-ion specific effect on sodium halides sorption and transport in a cross-linked poly(p-styrene sulfonate-co-divinylbenzene) for membrane applications

Here, sodium halide sorption and transport in a cation exchange membrane based on cross-linked poly(p-styrene sulfonate-co-divinylbenzene) (CR61) were investigated experimentally and theoretically. At fixed co-ion valence, sodium halide partitioning between aqueous electrolyte solutions and ion exchange polymers is only minimally sensitive to co-ion chemical identity. NaCl, NaF and NaI exhibit similar solubility coefficients in CR61, which agrees reasonably well with predictions of the Donnan-Manning model, especially at high external salt concentrations. Ion activity coefficients in the membrane were evaluated and ion sorption thermodynamics were investigated. Ion diffusion coefficients in CR61 were predicted using a recently developed framework based on the Manning diffusion model, which accounts for electrostatic effects on ion diffusion, and the Mackie-Meares model, which accounts for tortuosity/area effects on ion diffusion in swollen polymers. Model predictions agree reasonably well with the experimental data, especially at high external salt concentrations. The observed decrease in salt diffusion coefficients in CR61 relative to values in aqueous solutions is due primarily to tortuosity/area effects. Salt diffusion coefficients correlate with co-ion hydrated radius and membrane water content. Finally, salt permeability coefficients predicted using the solution-diffusion model exhibit good agreement with experimental data, especially at external salt concentration greater than 0.1 mol/L.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1983

Airborne remote sensing measurements with a pulsed CO2 DIAL system

The present investigation is concerned with an optical radar instrument which has been developed for airborne remote sensing of atmospheric trace species at infrared wavelengths. The instrument makes use of compact, pulsed carbon dioxide lasers. It was designed for conducting differential absorption lidar (DIAL) measurements. The backscatter of laser pulse energy from the ocean and terrain surface is utilized to determine trace species column content. The instrument, which is carried by the NASA P3 aircraft, is used in a flight test program started in July 1981. The results obtained with the instrument in this program are discussed, taking into account ocean surface backscatter statistics, the ratio of ocean to terrain backscatter, the dual-wavelength correlation coefficient, the dual-wavelength cross-covariance, and the dependence of un-correlated noise variance on the mean backscatter signal.

Bufton, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Identifying Bearing Rotordynamic Coefficients using an Extended Kalman Filter

An Extended Kalman Filter is developed to estimate the linearized direct and indirect stiffness and damping force coefficients for bearings in rotor-dynamic applications from noisy measurements of the shaft displacement in response to imbalance and impact excitation. The bearing properties are modeled as stochastic random variables using a Gauss-Markov model. Noise terms are introduced into the system model to account for all of the estimation error, including modeling errors and uncertainties and the propagation of measurement errors into the parameter estimates. The system model contains two user-defined parameters that can be tuned to improve the filter s performance; these parameters correspond to the covariance of the system and measurement noise variables. The filter is also strongly influenced by the initial values of the states and the error covariance matrix. The filter is demonstrated using numerically simulated data for a rotor-bearing system with two identical bearings, which reduces the number of unknown linear dynamic coefficients to eight. The filter estimates for the direct damping coefficients and all four stiffness coefficients correlated well with actual values, whereas the estimates for the cross-coupled damping coefficients were the least accurate.

Miller, Bard A.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Identifying Bearing Rotordynamic Coefficients using an Extended Kalman Filter

Miller, Brad A.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Identifying Bearing Rotodynamic Coefficients Using an Extended Kalman Filter

An Extended Kalman Filter is developed to estimate the linearized direct and indirect stiffness and damping force coefficients for bearings in rotor dynamic applications from noisy measurements of the shaft displacement in response to imbalance and impact excitation. The bearing properties are modeled as stochastic random variables using a Gauss-Markov model. Noise terms are introduced into the system model to account for all of the estimation error, including modeling errors and uncertainties and the propagation of measurement errors into the parameter estimates. The system model contains two user-defined parameters that can be tuned to improve the filter's performance; these parameters correspond to the covariance of the system and measurement noise variables. The filter is also strongly influenced by the initial values of the states and the error covariance matrix. The filter is demonstrated using numerically simulated data for a rotor bearing system with two identical bearings, which reduces the number of unknown linear dynamic coefficients to eight. The filter estimates for the direct damping coefficients and all four stiffness coefficients correlated well with actual values, whereas the estimates for the cross-coupled damping coefficients were the least accurate.

Miller, Brad A.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Assessment of Tropospheric Concentrations of NO2 from the TROPOMI/Sentinel-5 Precursor for the Estimation of Long-Term Exposure to Surface NO2 over South Korea

Since April 2018, the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) has provided data on tropospheric NO2 column concentrations (CTROPOMI) with unprecedented spatial resolution. This study aims to assess the capability of TROPOMI to acquire high spatial resolution data regarding surface NO2 mixing ratios. In general, the instrument effectively detected major and moderate sources of NO2 over South Korea with a clear weekday–weekend distinction. We compared the CTROPOMI with surface NO2 mixing ratio measurements from an extensive ground-based network over South Korea operated by the Korean Ministry of Environment (SKME; more than 570 sites), for 2019. Spatiotemporally collocated CTROPOMI and SKME showed a moderate correlation (correlation coefficient, r = 0.67), whereas their annual mean values at each site showed a higher correlation (r = 0.84). The CTROPOMI and SKME were well correlated around the Seoul metropolitan area, where significant amounts of NO2 prevailed throughout the year, whereas they showed lower correlation at rural sites. We converted the tropospheric NO2 from TROPOMI to the surface mixing ratio (STROPOMI) using the EAC4 (ECMWF Atmospheric Composition Reanalysis 4) profile shape, for quantitative comparison with the SKME. The estimated STROPOMI generally underestimated the in-situ value obtained, SKME (slope = 0.64), as reported in previous studies.

TROPOMI↗

NASA NTRS1967

Contribution to the friction coefficient from time correlations between hard and soft molecular interactions.

Contribution to friction coefficient from time correlations between hard and soft molecular interactions evaluated, using linear trajectory approximation

FRICTION COEFFICIENT↗

NASA NTRS1976

Closure and ratio correlation analysis of lunar chemical and grain size data

Major element and major element plus trace element analyses were selected from the lunar data base for Apollo 11, 12 and 15 basalt and regolith samples. Summary statistics for each of the six data sets were compiled, and the effects of closure on the Pearson product moment correlation coefficient were investigated using the Chayes and Kruskal approximation procedure. In general, there are two types of closure effects evident in these data sets: negative correlations of intermediate size which are solely the result of closure, and correlations of small absolute value which depart significantly from their expected closure correlations which are of intermediate size. It is shown that a positive closure correlation will arise only when the product of the coefficients of variation is very small (less than 0.01 for most data sets) and, in general, trace elements in the lunar data sets exhibit relatively large coefficients of variation.

Butler, J. C.↗