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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Studies of new Higgs boson interactions through nonresonant $HH$ production in the $ b\overline{b}\gamma \gamma $ final state in $pp$ collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for nonresonant Higgs boson pair production in the $ b\overline{b}\gamma \gamma $ final state is performed using 140 fb –1 of proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV recorded by the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. This analysis supersedes and expands upon the previous nonresonant ATLAS results in this final state based on the same data sample. The analysis strategy is optimised to probe anomalous values not only of the Higgs (H) boson self-coupling modifier κλ but also of the quartic HHVV (V = W, Z) coupling modifier κ 2V . No significant excess above the expected background from Standard Model processes is observed. An observed upper limit μHH < 4.0 is set at 95% confidence level on the Higgs boson pair production cross-section normalised to its Standard Model prediction. The 95% confidence intervals for the coupling modifiers are –1.4 < κ λ < 6.9 and –0.5 < κ 2V < 2.7, assuming all other Higgs boson couplings except the one under study are fixed to the Standard Model predictions. The results are interpreted in the Standard Model effective field theory and Higgs effective field theory frameworks in terms of constraints on the couplings of anomalous Higgs boson (self-)interactions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Learning likelihood ratios with neural network classifiers

The likelihood ratio is a crucial quantity for statistical inference in science that enables hypothesis testing, construction of confidence intervals, reweighting of distributions, and more. Many modern scientific applications, however, make use of data- or simulation-driven models for which computing the likelihood ratio can be very difficult or even impossible. By applying the so-called “likelihood ratio trick,” approximations of the likelihood ratio may be computed using clever parametrizations of neural network-based classifiers. A number of different neural network setups can be defined to satisfy this procedure, each with varying performance in approximating the likelihood ratio when using finite training data. We present a series of empirical studies detailing the performance of several common loss functionals and parametrizations of the classifier output in approximating the likelihood ratio of two univariate and multivariate Gaussian distributions as well as simulated high-energy particle physics datasets.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Search for new physics in top quark production with additional leptons in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} = $ 13 TeV using effective field theory

Events containing one or more top quarks produced with additional prompt leptons are used to search for new physics within the framework of an effective field theory (EFT). The data correspond to an integrated luminosity of 41.5 fb$^{−1}$ of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV at the LHC, collected by the CMS experiment in 2017. The selected events are required to have either two leptons with the same charge or more than two leptons; jets, including identified bottom quark jets, are also required, and the selected events are divided into categories based on the multiplicities of these objects. Sixteen dimension-six operators that can affect processes involving top quarks produced with additional charged leptons are considered in this analysis. Constructed to target EFT effects directly, the analysis applies a novel approach in which the observed yields are parameterized in terms of the Wilson coefficients (WCs) of the EFT operators. A simultaneous fit of the 16 WCs to the data is performed and two standard deviation confidence intervals for the WCs are extracted; the standard model expectations for the WC values are within these intervals for all of the WCs probed.[graphic not available: see fulltext]

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measurement of branching-fraction ratios and CP asymmetries in B± → DCP±K± decays at Belle and Belle II

Abstract We report results from a study ofB ± → DK ± decays followed byDdecaying to theCP-even final stateK + K − and CP-odd final state$$ {K}_S^0{\pi}^0 $$ K S 0 π 0 , whereDis an admixture ofD 0 and$$ {\overline{D}}^0 $$ D ¯ 0 states. These decays are sensitive to the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa unitarity-triangle angleϕ 3 . The results are based on a combined analysis of the final data set of 772×10 6 $$ B\overline{B} $$ B B ¯ pairs collected by the Belle experiment and a data set of 198×10 6 $$ B\overline{B} $$ B B ¯ pairs collected by the Belle II experiment, both in electron-positron collisions at the Υ(4S) resonance. We measure the CP asymmetries to be$$ \mathcal{A} $$ A CP+ = (+12.5±5.8±1.4)% and$$ \mathcal{A} $$ A CP− = (−16.7±5.7±0.6)%, and the ratios of branching fractions to be$$ \mathcal{R} $$ R CP+ = 1.164±0.081±0.036 and$$ \mathcal{R} $$ R CP− = 1.151±0.074±0.019. The first contribution to the uncertainties is statistical, and the second is systematic. The asymmetries$$ \mathcal{A} $$ A CP+ and$$ \mathcal{A} $$ A CP− have similar magnitudes and opposite signs; their difference corresponds to 3.5 standard deviations. From these values we calculate 68.3% confidence intervals of (8.5 ° <ϕ 3 < 16.5 ° ) or (84.5 ° <ϕ 3 < 95.5 ° ) or (163.3 ° <ϕ 3 < 171.5 ° ) and 0.321 B< 0.465.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Measurements of electroweak production of a photon in association with two jets in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV

The first observation of electroweak production of a photon in association with two forward jets in proton-proton collisions is presented. The measurement uses data recorded by the CMS experiment at the LHC during 2016–2018 at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb −1 . The analysis is performed in a region enriched in photon production via vector boson fusion, with a requirement on the transverse momentum of the photon to exceed 200 GeV. The cross section is measured to be ${202}_{-32}^{+36}$ fb, at a significance with respect to the null hypothesis that exceeds five standard deviations. This is in agreement with the standard model prediction of ${177}_{-12}^{+13}$ fb. Differential cross sections are measured as a function of various observables. Limits are set on dimension-6 effective field theory operators that contribute to the WW γ interaction. The observed 95% confidence intervals for the corresponding Warsaw basis Wilson coefficients c W and c HWB are [−0.11, 0.16] and [−1.6, 1.5], respectively.

electroweak interaction↗
DOE OSTI2024

Search for Higgs boson pair production with one associated vector boson in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV

A search for Higgs boson pair (HH) production in association with a vector boson V (W or Z boson) is presented. The search is based on proton-proton collision data at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, collected with the CMS detector at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb$^{−1}$. Both hadronic and leptonic decays of V bosons are used. The leptons considered are electrons, muons, and neutrinos. The HH production is searched for in the $ \textrm{b}\overline{\textrm{b}}\textrm{b}\overline{\textrm{b}} $ decay channel. An observed (expected) upper limit at 95% confidence level of VHH production cross section is set at 294 (124) times the standard model prediction. Constraints are also set on the modifiers of the Higgs boson trilinear self-coupling, k$_{λ}$, assuming k$_{2V}$ = 1, and vice versa on the coupling of two Higgs bosons with two vector bosons, k$_{2V}$. The observed (expected) 95% confidence intervals of these coupling modifiers are −37.7 < k$_{λ}$ < 37.2 (−30.1 < k$_{λ}$ < 28.9) and −12.2 < k$_{2V}$ < 13.5 (−7.2 < k$_{2V}$ < 8.9), respectively.[graphic not available: see fulltext]

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Search for physics beyond the standard model in top quark production with additional leptons in the context of effective field theory

A search for new physics in top quark production with additional final-state leptons is performed using data collected by the CMS experiment in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV at the LHC during 2016–2018. The data set corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb$^{−1}$. Using the framework of effective field theory (EFT), potential new physics effects are parametrized in terms of 26 dimension-six EFT operators. The impacts of EFT operators are incorporated through the event-level reweighting of Monte Carlo simulations, which allows for detector-level predictions. The events are divided into several categories based on lepton multiplicity, total lepton charge, jet multiplicity, and b-tagged jet multiplicity. Kinematic variables corresponding to the transverse momentum (p$_{T}$) of the leading pair of leptons and/or jets as well as the p$_{T}$ of on-shell Z bosons are used to extract the 95% confidence intervals of the 26 Wilson coefficients corresponding to these EFT operators. No significant deviation with respect to the standard model prediction is found.[graphic not available: see fulltext]

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dietary B group vitamin intake and the bladder cancer risk: a pooled analysis of prospective cohort studies

Abstract Purpose Diet may play an essential role in the aetiology of bladder cancer (BC). The B group complex vitamins involve diverse biological functions that could be influential in cancer prevention. The aim of the present study was to investigate the association between various components of the B group vitamin complex and BC risk. Methods Dietary data were pooled from four cohort studies. Food item intake was converted to daily intakes of B group vitamins and pooled multivariate hazard ratios (HRs), with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs), were obtained using Cox-regression models. Dose–response relationships were examined using a nonparametric test for trend. Results In total, 2915 BC cases and 530,012 non-cases were included in the analyses. The present study showed an increased BC risk for moderate intake of vitamin B1 (HR B1 : 1.13, 95% CI: 1.00–1.20). In men, moderate intake of the vitamins B1, B2, energy-related vitamins and high intake of vitamin B1 were associated with an increased BC risk (HR (95% CI): 1.13 (1.02–1.26), 1.14 (1.02–1.26), 1.13 (1.02–1.26; 1.13 (1.02–1.26), respectively). In women, high intake of all vitamins and vitamin combinations, except for the entire complex, showed an inverse association (HR (95% CI): 0.80 (0.67–0.97), 0.83 (0.70–1.00); 0.77 (0.63–0.93), 0.73 (0.61–0.88), 0.82 (0.68–0.99), 0.79 (0.66–0.95), 0.80 (0.66–0.96), 0.74 (0.62–0.89), 0.76 (0.63–0.92), respectively). Dose–response analyses showed an increased BC risk for higher intake of vitamin B1 and B12. Conclusion Our findings highlight the importance of future research on the food sources of B group vitamins in the context of the overall and sex-stratified diet.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mortality among individuals exposed to atomic bomb radiation in utero: 1950–2012

We examined the mortality risks among 2463 individuals who were exposed in utero to atomic bomb radiation in Hiroshima or Nagasaki in August 1945 and were followed from October 1950 through 2012. Individual estimates of mother’s weighted absorbed uterine dose (DS02R1) were used. Poisson regression method was used to estimate the radiation-associated excess relative risk per Gy (ERR/Gy) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for cause-specific mortality. Head size, birth weight, and parents’ survival status were evaluated as potential mediators of radiation effect. There were 339 deaths (216 males and 123 females) including deaths from solid cancer (n = 137), lymphohematopoietic cancer (n = 8), noncancer disease (n = 134), external cause (n = 56), and unknown cause (n = 4). Among males, the unadjusted ERR/Gy (95% CI) was increased for noncancer disease mortality (1.22, 0.10–3.14), but not for solid cancer mortality (-0.18,< -0.77–0.95); the unadjusted ERR/Gy for external cause mortality was not statistically significant (0.28, < -0.60–2.36). Among females, the unadjusted ERRs/Gy were increased for solid cancer (2.24, 0.44–5.58), noncancer (2.86, 0.56–7.64), and external cause mortality (2.57, 0.20–9.19). The ERRs/Gy adjusted for potential mediators did not change appreciably for solid cancer mortality, but decreased notably for noncancer mortality (0.39, < -0.43–1.91 for males; 1.48, - 0.046–4.55 for females) and external cause mortality (0.10, < -0.57–1.96 for males; 1.38, < -0.46–5.95 for females). In conclusion, antenatal radiation exposure is a consistent risk factor for increased solid cancer mortality among females, but not among males. The effect of exposure to atomic bomb radiation on noncancer disease and external cause mortality among individuals exposed in utero was mediated through small head size, low birth weight, and parental loss.

Public, Environmental & Occupational Health↗
DOE OSTI2024

Applying queueing theory to evaluate wait-time-savings of triage algorithms

Abstract In the past decade, artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms have made promising impacts in many areas of healthcare. One application is AI-enabled prioritization software known as computer-aided triage and notification (CADt). This type of software as a medical device is intended to prioritize reviews of radiological images with time-sensitive findings, thus shortening the waiting time for patients with these findings. While many CADt devices have been deployed into clinical workflows and have been shown to improve patient treatment and clinical outcomes, quantitative methods to evaluate the wait-time-savings from their deployment are not yet available. In this paper, we apply queueing theory methods to evaluate the wait-time-savings of a CADt by calculating the average waiting time per patient image without and with a CADt device being deployed. We study two workflow models with one or multiple radiologists (servers) for a range of AI diagnostic performances, radiologist’s reading rates, and patient image (customer) arrival rates. To evaluate the time-saving performance of a CADt, we use the difference in the mean waiting time between the diseased patient images in the with-CADt scenario and that in the without-CADt scenario as our performance metric. As part of this effort, we have developed and also share a software tool to simulate the radiology workflow around medical image interpretation, to verify theoretical results, and to provide confidence intervals for the performance metric we defined. We show quantitatively that a CADt triage device is more effective in a busy, short-staffed reading setting, which is consistent with our clinical intuition and simulation results. Although this work is motivated by the need for evaluating CADt devices, the evaluation methodology presented in this paper can be applied to assess the time-saving performance of other types of algorithms that prioritize a subset of customers based on binary outputs.

Thompson, Yee Lam Elim (ORCID:0000000196537707)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Total Blood Mercury Predicts Methylmercury Exposure in Fish and Shellfish Consumers

Abstract Many studies evaluating methylmercury (MeHg) toxicity rely on whole blood total mercury (THg) measurements to estimate MeHg exposure. However, whole blood THg includes other forms of mercury (Hg), such as inorganic Hg, which have different exposure sources and toxicological effects than MeHg. Therefore, estimating the whole blood MeHg/THg ratio is critical to predicting MeHg exposure and, subsequently, efforts to establish an exposure–response relationship for use in risk assessment. A large, representative dataset (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2011–2016) was used to determine the whole blood MeHg/THg ratio among (a) self-reported fish and shellfish consumers, ≥ 15 years of age (the “full adult” population ( N = 5268 training dataset; N = 2336 test dataset)) and (b) female fish and shellfish consumers, 15–44 years of age (the “women of reproductive age” population ( N = 1285 training dataset; N = 560 test dataset)). Unadjusted and adjusted linear and spline models with direct measurements for both THg and MeHg were evaluated. The mean whole blood MeHg/THg ratio was 0.75 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.74, 0.75). This ratio was significantly higher among those with higher THg concentrations. All models exhibited excellent fit (adjusted R 2 from 0.957 to 0.982). Performance was slightly improved in spline versus linear models. For the full adult population and women of reproductive age, the unadjusted spline model predicted whole blood MeHg concentrations of 5.65 µg/L and 5.55 µg/L, respectively, when the THg concentration was 5.80 µg/L. These results suggest that whole blood THg is a good predictor of whole blood MeHg among fish and shellfish consumers.

Wells, Ellen M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Scalable in situ non-destructive evaluation of additively manufactured components using process monitoring, sensor fusion, and machine learning

Laser Powder Bed Fusion (L-PBF) Additive Manufacturing (AM) is among the metal 3D printing technologies most broadly adopted by the manufacturing industry. However, the current industry qualification paradigm for critical-application L-PBF parts relies heavily on expensive non-destructive inspection techniques, which significantly limits the use-cases of L-PBF. In situ monitoring of the process promises a less expensive alternative to ex situ testing, but existing sensor technologies and data analysis techniques struggle to detect sub-surface flaws (e.g., porosity and cracking) on production-scale L-PBF printers. In this work, an in situ NDE (INDE) system was engineered to detect subsurface flaws detected in X-Ray Computed Tomography (XCT) directly from process monitoring data. A multilayer, multimodal data input allowed the INDE system to detect numerous subsurface flaws in the size range of 200–1000µm using a novel human-in-the-loop annotation procedure. Furthermore, a framework was established for generating probability-of-detection (POD) and probability-of-false-alarm (PFA) curves compliant with NDE standards by systematically comparing instances of detected subsurface flaws to post-build XCT data. Here, we also introduce for the first time in the AM in situ sensing literature the a 90/95 – the flaw size corresponding to a 90% detection rate on the lower 95% confidence interval of the POD curve. The INDE system successfully demonstrated POD capabilities commensurate with traditional NDE methods. Traditional ML performance metrics were also shown to be inadequate for assessing the ability of the INDE system’s flaw detection performance. It is the hope of the authors that future studies will adopt the POD and PFA approach outlined here to provide better insight into the utility of process monitoring for AM.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimation of hydraulic conductivity in a watershed using sparse multi-source data via Gaussian process regression and Bayesian experimental design

Enhanced water management systems depend on accurate estimation of subsurface hydraulic properties. However, geologic formations can vary significantly, so information from a single source (e.g., widely spaced boreholes) is insufficient in characterizing subsurface aquifer properties. Therefore, multiple sources of information are needed to complement the hydrogeology understanding of a region. Here, this study presents a numerical framework in which information from different measurement sources is combined to characterize the 3D random field in a multi-fidelity prediction model. Coupled with the model, a Bayesian experimental design was used to determine the best future sampling locations. The Upper Sangamon watershed in east-central Illinois was selected as the case study site, where the multi-fidelity Gaussian process model was used to estimate the hydraulic conductivity in the region of interest. Multi-source observation data were obtained from electrical resistivity and borehole pumping tests. The accuracy of the model prediction is dependent on the locations and the distribution of both high- and low-fidelity data. Furthermore, the multi-fidelity model was compared with the single-fidelity model. The uncertainties and confidence in the measurements and parameter estimates were quantified and used to design future cycles of data collection to further improve the confidence intervals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification of a physics-informed model based on sparse identification of a Thermal Energy Distribution System

Integrated energy systems (IES)s are crucial for enhancing the economy and efficiency of power generation sources (e.g., nuclear energy) necessary to unleash American energy dominance. These systems can be integrated with thermal energy storage (TES) and intermittent renewable energies to optimize overall energy use, peak-load regulation, and demand-side responses. However, the stabilization of energy generation, transport, and utilization introduces operational complexities that exceed the challenges of managing each sub-component individually. Currently, though IESs rely on human operators for efficiency and stability, reducing human error risk and enhancing performance through automation is highly desirable. Recent advances at Idaho National Laboratory have demonstrated successful control of the Thermal Energy Distributed System (TEDS). However, the automatic control system depends on a deterministic Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics with Control (SINDyC) model, which are trained based on simulation data from physics-based simulations. Because of uncertainties in physics-based simulation, SINDyC model results in large discrepancies against experimental data and cannot be reliably used in automatic control. In this paper, we present an innovative approach to address these discrepancies by quantifying uncertainties and developing a more robust model. We first generated trajectories by using first-principles physics codes to encapsulate the experiment. Next, we trained thousands of models by randomly sampling these trajectories. We then collapsed all those models into one probabilistic SINDyC by fitting a multivariate Gaussian distribution onto the resulting coefficient’s distribution. Despite its simplicity, our approach successfully produced 95% confidence intervals that captured the experimental trajectories. It even did so with a higher probability and better U-pooling score across six of the seven relevant quantities of interest (QoIs), as compared to other classical approaches. In conclusion, ongoing research is focusing on generating new experimental trajectories to validate this approach, and on employing Bayesian calibration to refine parametric uncertainties and guide future model development efforts.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying health benefits of sustainable aviation fuels: Modeling decreased ultrafine particle emissions and associated impacts on communities near the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport

Exposure to ultrafine particles (UFP, ≤100 nm) is an emerging health concern linked to premature mortality, with jet fuel combustion identified as a significant source of UFPs near airports. Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) adoption has the potential to reduce aviation-related UFPs and may particularly benefit populations who reside nearby. However, assessing aviation-specific impacts on health remains challenging due to the lack of tools capable of addressing: fine-scale exposure evaluation, novel ambient pollutants, and groups with increased exposure or susceptibility. We develop and apply a method to estimate reductions in mortality associated with aviation-related UFP reductions at the Seattle-Tacoma (SEA-TAC) International Airport under SAF adoption scenarios, with a focus on near-airport communities. Using UFP exposure surfaces generated from AERMOD modeling, flight count data, and UFP measurements, we evaluated UFP reductions under various control scenarios. We estimated mortality reductions by combining this with population data, baseline mortality, and a hazard ratio of 1.012 (95 % confidence interval: 1.010, 1.015) per interquartile range increment of 2723 particles/cm 3 . Our analysis included 412 census tracts representing almost 1.5 million adults. Baseline aviation-related UFP exposures averaged 1145 (SD: 277) particles/cm 3 . The highest baseline concentrations and subsequent reductions under SAF scenarios were near SEA-TAC. Mortality case reductions averaged between 3.1 (95 % range: 2.5–3.7) for a 5 % UFP reduction to 31.0 (24.6–37.4) for a 50 % reduction, with corresponding mortality rate reductions of 0.2 (0.2–0.3) to 2.1 (1.7–2.5) cases per 100,000 people per year. Mortality rate reductions were larger among populations residing closer to SEA-TAC, including those that were Hispanic or Latino, below-poverty, and did not identify as White. Reducing aviation-related UFPs through SAF adoption could lead to lower mortality, particularly in near-airport communities. This reproducible approach can be adapted to other settings to evaluate health benefits from aviation-related UFP reductions.

Aviation-related air pollution↗
DOE OSTI2025

Entropy-based feature selection for capturing impacts in Earth system models with abrupt forcing

This paper presents the development of a new entropy-based feature selection method for identifying and quantifying impacts. Here, impacts are defined as statistically significant differences in spatio-temporal fields when comparing datasets with and without an external forcing in an Earth system model. Temporal feature selection is performed by first computing the cross-fuzzy entropy to quantify similarity of patterns between two datasets and then applying changepoint detection to identify regions of statistically constant entropy. The method is used to capture temperate north surface cooling from a 9-member simulation ensemble of the Mt. Pinatubo volcanic eruption, which injected 10 Tg of SO 2 into the stratosphere. The results estimate a mean difference decrease in near surface air temperature of -0.560 K with a 99% confidence interval between -0.864 K and -0.257 K between April and November of 1992, one year following the eruption. A sensitivity analysis with decreasing SO 2 injection revealed that the impact is statistically significant at 5 Tg but not at 3 Tg. Using identified features, a dependency graph model based on a 9-day lag had significantly fewer nodes than a graph based on monthly means. Furthermore, this demonstrates our method’s ability to perform dimension reduction while still uncovering source-to-impact pathways.

Changepoint detection↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian reduced-order deep learning surrogate model for dynamic systems described by partial differential equations

We propose a reduced-order deep-learning surrogate model for dynamic systems described by time-dependent partial differential equations. This method employs space–time Karhunen–Loève expansions (KLEs) of the state variables and space-dependent KLEs of space-varying parameters to identify the reduced (latent) dimensions. Subsequently, a deep neural network (DNN) is used to map the parameter latent space to the state variable latent space. An approximate Bayesian method is developed for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in the proposed KL-DNN surrogate model. The KL-DNN method is tested for the linear advection–diffusion and nonlinear diffusion equations, and the Bayesian approach for UQ is compared with the deep ensembling (DE) approach, commonly used for quantifying uncertainty in DNN models. It was found that the approximate Bayesian method provides a more informative distribution of the PDE solutions in terms of the coverage of the reference PDE solutions (the percentage of nodes where the reference solution is within the confidence interval predicted by the UQ methods) and log predictive probability. The DE method is found to underestimate uncertainty and introduce bias. For the nonlinear diffusion equation, we compare the KL-DNN method with the Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) method and find that KL-DNN is 10% more accurate and needs less training time than the FNO method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Independent and interactive effects of wet bulb globe temperature and air pollution exposures on suicide mortality

Background: Individual components of the ambient environment, such as temperature and air pollution, exist as part of a complex mixture and have been associated with suicide; however, their interactive effects remain poorly understood. This study examined the independent and interactive effects of wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) on suicide mortality. Methods: We identified 7,551 suicide cases in Utah, USA, from 2000 to 2016 and assigned exposure to daily maximum WBGT (sourced from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and PM 2.5 and NO 2 concentrations (sourced from a national spatiotemporal ensemble model) using decedent’s residential address at the time of death. A case-crossover design with conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the independent and interactive effects of WBGT max , PM 2.5 , and NO 2 on suicide. For exposure windows, we considered single days preceding suicide (lag 0 to 6) and their averages across preceding days (lag 0–1, 0–3, and 0–6). Analyses were stratified by season. Results: We identified a significant association between WBGT max and suicide across all seasons (odds ratio [OR] = 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01, 1.10; per 5 °C increase on lag 0–3 days). The associations were stronger in the warm season (March 22 to September 21), with ORs and 95% CIs ranging from 1.08 (1.02, 1.15) to 1.20 (1.10, 1.30) per 5 °C increase depending on the lag periods. We observed synergistic interactions between WBGT max and PM 2.5 and NO 2 in the warm season, associated with higher odds of suicide. The associations of WBGT max with suicide were most pronounced at high NO 2 levels. Conclusions: We found evidence of synergistic interactions between WBGT max and PM 2.5 and NO 2 on suicide in the warm season, emphasizing the need for considering the combined effects of heat stress and air pollution in suicide prevention strategies.

Fine particulate matter↗