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At least 163 records · Page 9

Toward Predictive RANS and SRS Computations of Turbulent External Flows of Practical Interest

In this work, we investigate the main challenges to prediction of turbulent external flows of practical interest with Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes equations (RANS) and Scale-Resolving Simulation (SRS) models. This represents a crucial step toward further developing and establishing these formulations so they can be confidently utilized in engineering problems without reference data. The study initiates by identifying the major challenges to prediction. A literature review is performed to illustrate their effects in RANS and SRS computations. Afterward, we evaluate the impact of the challenges to prediction by analyzing representative statistically steady and unsteady flows with prominent RANS and SRS methods. These include multiple turbulent viscosity and second-moment RANS closures, and hybrid and bridging SRS models. The results demonstrate the potential of the selected SRS models to predict engineering flows. Yet, they also show the importance of considering the challenges to prediction during the setup and conduction of numerical experiments. These can suppress the advantages of using SRS formulations. The data also indicate that only SRS models can confidently predict statistically unsteady flows. In contrast, the results demonstrate that mean-flow quantities of statistically steady flows can be efficiently calculated with RANS closures, especially second-moment closures. Among the selected SRS methods, bridging models reveal better suited for prediction due to their ability to prevent commutation errors and enable the robust evaluation of numerical and modeling errors. This last property allows the use of a new validation technique that does not require reference data.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Estimation of hydraulic conductivity in a watershed using sparse multi-source data via Gaussian process regression and Bayesian experimental design

Enhanced water management systems depend on accurate estimation of subsurface hydraulic properties. However, geologic formations can vary significantly, so information from a single source (e.g., widely spaced boreholes) is insufficient in characterizing subsurface aquifer properties. Therefore, multiple sources of information are needed to complement the hydrogeology understanding of a region. Here, this study presents a numerical framework in which information from different measurement sources is combined to characterize the 3D random field in a multi-fidelity prediction model. Coupled with the model, a Bayesian experimental design was used to determine the best future sampling locations. The Upper Sangamon watershed in east-central Illinois was selected as the case study site, where the multi-fidelity Gaussian process model was used to estimate the hydraulic conductivity in the region of interest. Multi-source observation data were obtained from electrical resistivity and borehole pumping tests. The accuracy of the model prediction is dependent on the locations and the distribution of both high- and low-fidelity data. Furthermore, the multi-fidelity model was compared with the single-fidelity model. The uncertainties and confidence in the measurements and parameter estimates were quantified and used to design future cycles of data collection to further improve the confidence intervals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

High-throughput validation of phase formability and simulation accuracy of Cantor alloys

High-throughput methods enable accelerated discovery of novel materials in complex systems such as high-entropy alloys, which exhibit intricate phase stability across vast compositional spaces. Computational approaches, including Density Functional Theory (DFT) and calculation of phase diagrams (CALPHAD), facilitate screening of phase formability as a function of composition and temperature. However, the integration of computational predictions with experimental validation remains challenging in high-throughput studies. In this work, we introduce a quantitative confidence metric to assess the agreement between predictions and experimental observations, providing a quantitative measure of the confidence of machine learning models trained on either DFT or CALPHAD input in accounting for experimental evidence. The experimental dataset was generated via high-throughput in-situ synchrotron X-ray diffraction on compositionally varied FeNiMnCr alloy libraries, heated from room temperature to ~1000 °C. Agreement between the observed and predicted phases was evaluated using either temperature-independent phase classification or a model that incorporates a temperature-dependent probability of phase formation. This integrated approach demonstrates where strong overall agreement between computation and experiment exists, while also identifying key discrepancies, particularly in FCC/BCC predictions at Mn-rich regions to inform future model refinement.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Enabling phase quantification of anhydrous cements via Raman imaging

The phase composition of Portland cements is typically determined using conventional techniques like X-ray Diffraction (XRD) Rietveld analysis, optical microscopy point counting, and electron microscopy. However, these techniques have several limitations that may affect their accuracy in certain sample-specific scenarios. Here, we report a highly accurate phase quantification of 11 different types of commercial, anhydrous cements using a new and complementary technique: Raman imaging. Specifically, for the 4 principal phases, composition from our extensive data (250,000 Raman spectra per sample, error < 0.71%) and those obtained from XRD Rietveld and supplier data have high coefficients of determination (R{sup 2} > 0.98, mean deviation <2%). Additionally, we also quantify 8 secondary phases present in cement clinkers (gypsum, anhydrite, bassanite, syngenite, dolomite, calcite, quartz, and portlandite) with a high degree of confidence, thereby demonstrating that Raman imaging is a highly versatile tool for anhydrous phase quantification in a broad variety of cements.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Personalized and uncertainty-aware coronary hemodynamics simulations: From Bayesian estimation to improved multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification

Non-invasive simulations of coronary hemodynamics have improved clinical risk stratification and treatment outcomes for coronary artery disease, compared to relying on anatomical imaging alone. However, simulations typically use empirical approaches to distribute total coronary flow amongst the arteries in the coronary tree, which ignores patient variability, the presence of disease, and other clinical factors. Further, uncertainty in the clinical data often remains unaccounted for in the modeling pipeline. We present an end-to-end uncertainty-aware pipeline to (1) personalize coronary flow simulations by incorporating vessel-specific coronary flows as well as cardiac function; and (2) predict clinical and biomechanical quantities of interest with improved precision, while accounting for uncertainty in the clinical data. We assimilate patient-specific measurements of myocardial blood flow from clinical CT myocardial perfusion imaging to estimate branch-specific coronary artery flows. Simulated noise in the clinical data is used to estimate the joint posterior distributions of the model parameters using adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. Additionally, the posterior predictive distribution for the relevant quantities of interest is determined using a new approach combining multi-fidelity Monte Carlo estimation with non-linear, data-driven dimensionality reduction. This leads to improved correlations between high- and low-fidelity model outputs. Our framework accurately recapitulates clinically measured cardiac function as well as branch-specific coronary flows under measurement noise uncertainty. We observe substantial reductions in confidence intervals for estimated quantities of interest compared to single-fidelity Monte Carlo estimation and state-of-the-art multi-fidelity Monte Carlo methods. This holds especially true for quantities of interest that showed limited correlation between the low- and high-fidelity model predictions. In addition, the proposed multi-fidelity Monte Carlo estimators are significantly cheaper to compute than traditional estimators, under a specified confidence level or variance. The proposed pipeline for personalized and uncertainty-aware predictions of coronary hemodynamics is based on routine clinical measurements and recently developed techniques for CT myocardial perfusion imaging. The proposed pipeline offers significant improvements in precision and reduction in computational cost.

Bayesian parameter estimation↗

A stochastic model of future extreme temperature events for infrastructure analysis

Applying extreme temperature events for future conditions is not straightforward for infrastructure resilience analyses. This work introduces a stochastic model that fills this gap. The model uses at least 50 years of daily extreme temperature records, climate normals with 10%-90% confidence intervals, and shifts/offsets for increased frequency and intensity of heat wave events. Intensity and frequency are shifted based on surface temperature anomaly from 1850-1900 for 32 models from CMIP6. A case study for Worcester, Massachusetts passed 85% of cases using the two-sided Kolmogorov-Smirnov -value test with 95% confidence for both temperature and duration. Future shifts for several climate scenarios to 2020, 2040, 2060, and 2080 had acceptable errors between the shifted model and 10- and 50-year extreme temperature event thresholds with the largest error being 2.67 degrees C. The model is likely to be flexible enough for other patterns of extreme weather such as extreme precipitation and hurricanes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Play Fairway analysis of geothermal resources across the State of Hawai‘i: 4. Updates with new groundwater chemistry, subsurface stress analysis, and focused geophysical surveys

This paper is the fourth in a series on a play fairway analysis of geothermal resources across the State of Hawai‘i. Here we describe recent exploration activities that include groundwater sampling in ten locations statewide, as well as geophysical surveys on Lana‘i, across the SW rift of Haleakala Volcano (Maui), and surrounding Mauna Kea Volcano (Hawai‘i Island). We derive a first-order method for computing topographic stress using Green’s functions, finding that topography can induce appreciable crustal stress. We develop a new method for incorporating depth information about resistivity, density, and topographic stresses into our previously published equations to calculate resource probability and confidence. We incorporate newly collected and modeled data into our calculations to update statewide maps of probability and confidence. Lana‘i Island and southeast Mauna Kea are identified as the top targets for exploratory drilling. The east rift of Haleakala Volcano, the southern-most region of Mauna Loa’s SW rift (Hawai‘i Island), and central Kauai are identified as targets for geophysical surveying.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

When less is more: How increasing the complexity of machine learning strategies for geothermal energy assessments may not lead toward better estimates

Previous moderate- and high-temperature geothermal resource assessments of the western United States utilized data-driven methods and expert decisions to estimate resource favorability. Although expert decisions can add confidence to the modeling process by ensuring reasonable models are employed, expert decisions also introduce human and, thereby, model bias. This bias can present a source of error that reduces the predictive performance of the models and confidence in the resulting resource estimates. Our study aims to develop robust data-driven methods with the goals of reducing bias and improving predictive ability. We present and compare nine favorability maps for geothermal resources in the western United States using data from the U.S. Geological Survey's 2008 geothermal resource assessment. Two favorability maps are created using the expert decision-dependent methods from the 2008 assessment (i.e., weight-of-evidence and logistic regression). With the same data, we then create six different favorability maps using logistic regression (without underlying expert decisions), XGBoost, and support-vector machines paired with two training strategies. The training strategies are customized to address the inherent challenges of applying machine learning to the geothermal training data, which have no negative examples and severe class imbalance. We also create another favorability map using an artificial neural network. We demonstrate that modern machine learning approaches can improve upon systems built with expert decisions. We also find that XGBoost, a non-linear algorithm, produces greater agreement with the 2008 results than linear logistic regression without expert decisions, because the expert decisions in the 2008 assessment rendered the otherwise linear approaches non-linear despite the fact that the 2008 assessment used only linear methods. The F1 scores for all approaches appear low (F1 score < 0.10), do not improve with increasing model complexity, and, therefore, indicate the fundamental limitations of the input features (i.e., training data). Until improved feature data are incorporated into the assessment process, simple non-linear algorithms (e.g., XGBoost) perform equally well or better than more complex methods (e.g., artificial neural networks) and remain easier to interpret.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

A Primer on Dose-Response Data Modeling in Radiation Therapy

An overview of common approaches used to assess a dose response for radiation therapy–associated endpoints is presented, using lung toxicity data sets analyzed as a part of the High Dose per Fraction, Hypofractionated Treatment Effects in the Clinic effort as an example. Each component presented (eg, data-driven analysis, dose-response analysis, and calculating uncertainties on model prediction) is addressed using established approaches. Specifically, the maximum likelihood method was used to calculate best parameter values of the commonly used logistic model, the profile-likelihood to calculate confidence intervals on model parameters, and the likelihood ratio to determine whether the observed data fit is statistically significant. The bootstrap method was used to calculate confidence intervals for model predictions. Correlated behavior of model parameters and implication for interpreting dose response are discussed.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Simultaneous transmission/absorption photometry of particle-laden filters from wildland fires during the Biomass Burning Observation Project (BBOP) field campaign

Transmissivity and absorptivity measurements were carried out simultaneously in the visible (wavelength of 532 nm) at laboratory conditions using particle-laden filters obtained from a three-wavelength particle/soot absorption photometer (PSAP). Here, the particles were collected on filters from wildland fires over the Pacific Northwest during the Department of Energy Biomass Burning Observation Project (BBOP) field campaign in 2013. The objective of this investigation was to apply this measurement approach, referred to as simultaneous transmission/absorption photometry (STAP), to estimate the aerosol extinction coefficient from actual field-campaign filter aerosol, and compare results with the PSAP. The STAP approach offers several advantages over the PSAP, including estimation of the extinction coefficient from temperature measurements (avoiding the complexities associated with filter reflectivity/scattering measurements), as well as determination of the filter optical properties and filter effects on particle absorption (resulting in particle absorption enhancement). The experimental arrangement included a laser probe beam impinging normal to the particle-coated surface of a vertically mounted filter, and a thermocouple placed flush in the middle of (and in thermal contact with) the filter uncoated back surface. With this simple arrangement, the transmissivity and absorptivity were determined simultaneously at a given laser beam wavelength. The measurement repeatability was better than 0.3 K (95% confidence level) for temperature and 0.4 mW for laser power. The limit of detection for the extinction coefficient was estimated to be (8–12) Mm -1 (95% confidence level) at about 1.9 mW laser power. The extinction coefficient was determined through measurement of both PSAP blank and exposed filters. Filters were obtained from nine different aircraft flights conducted during the BBOP campaign, representing different flight patterns, days, stages of burning, landscapes, and wildland fires. The STAP extinction coefficient matched the darkness of the filter coating, however the PSAP-filter results did not follow the same order. Although there were differences in transmissivity between the two techniques, the estimated values for absorption coefficient were in good agreement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Electrochemical behavior of SnCl 2 and influence of Cu and Ni ions in molten LiCl−KCl−CaCl 2 eutectic

Reliable transport and thermodynamic data for multivalent ions in complex molten salts are scarce, limiting model fidelity for electrorefining and impurity control. Here, we report a comprehensive electrochemical characterization of SnCl₂ in LiCl–KCl–CaCl₂ (50.5–44.2–5.3 mol%) at 685 K, including the effects of Ni 2+ and Cu + impurities. Using cyclic voltammetry (CV), chronoamperometry (CA), and chronopotentiometry (CP), we quantified Sn 2+ and Ni 2+ diffusion with exceptional agreement across methods: Sn 2+ averaged (1.03 ± 0.10) × 10 −5 cm 2 s −1 , and Ni 2+ averaged (0.75 ± 0.19) × 10 −5 cm 2 s −1 . The tight confidence-interval overlap across CV, CA, and CP strengthens confidence in these values and is uncommon in molten chloride studies. Open-circuit-potential measurements provided standard apparent reduction potentials that closely match LiCl–KCl literature, indicating minimal shift with CaCl₂ present. The Sn 2+ /Sn couple behaves as a reversible two-electron soluble–insoluble process at 685 K; the Sn 4+ /Sn 2+ couple transitions to soluble–soluble behavior near 788 K, which may correlate with the decomposition of surface bound chlorostannates, though direct characterization remains to be established. In mixed systems, Cu+/Cu overlaps Sn 2+ /Sn, limiting Cusingle bondSn electroseparation, whereas the larger potential gap between Ni 2+ /Ni and Sn 2+ /Sn supports selective Ni removal. These internally consistent transport and thermodynamic data establish a validated basis for process modeling and optimization of Sn electrorefining and impurity management in LiCl–KCl–CaCl₂.

Berzins-Delahay↗

Spherical Indentation and Implementation of S 3 /P for yield stress determination of brittle materials

Here, a mathematically transparent and robust experimental method has been developed to estimate the yield stress of brittle materials through the analysis of depth-sensing spherical indentation. Employing Hertzian contact mechanics, an elastically invariant ratio based on the simple equation S 3 / P = 6RE r 2 , (where S and P are contact stiffness and indentation load, respectively) has been derived that enables more accurate and confident determination of the transition from elastic to inelastic deformation; a transition that the yield stress dictates and represents. Using two diamond spheres with radii of 3.2 and 8.6 μm, the indentation test method and analyses are applied to two vitreous silicates: Corning's HPFS 7980® fused silica and Vitro's Starphire® soda lime silicate. The estimated yield strengths are 8.15 GPa ± 2.5% for the fused silica and 6.1 GPa ± 3.3% for the soda-lime silicate, and both were independent of indenter radius. Verification of this new experimental method is demonstrated with an as-drawn titanium by showing equivalence of measured yield stress by its spherical indentation and that from uniaxial compression testing. This method will enable easier and more confident estimation of yield stress in brittle materials - a property that historically has been elusive to measure for these materials using common laboratory mechanical test methods.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A quantitative method to determine the region not influenced by injected interstitial and surface effects during void swelling in ion-irradiated metals

We propose and demonstrate a microstructurally-based experimental method to quantitively determine the depth regions in self-ion-irradiated metals that are affected by the injected interstitial effect and various surface effects, focusing on the choice of safe analysis zones to minimize the impact of these phenomena. The goal is to define the depth ranges where extracted data can be confidently applied to ion-neutron correlations for reactor application. Since ion energies in the range of 1–5 MeV are most frequently employed by the radiation effects community, irradiations were conducted at four energies in this range, all proceeding at 475 °C. The experiment was conducted on relatively pure single crystal iron to focus only on physical phenomena, avoiding the influence of possibly confounding chemical or segregation processes. Care was also taken to minimize the influence of other physical factors such as crystalline orientation. It was shown that, at 475 °C, ion energies of ≤1 MeV were too shallow in penetration and did not yield a safe depth range, but irradiations at 2.5 MeV and above yielded useful safe zones with predicted swelling behavior becoming independent of ion energy. The surface-affected zone width was found to be roughly twice that of the void-denuded zone width and to be independent of accumulated displacement dose. The largest injected-interstitial effect arises from the injected interstitial depression of void nucleation and growth. The interstitial-affected region starts at about one half of the projected range and does not show any “spreading” of its influence in depth as the peak damage level increases from 50 to 100 dpa. This study provides some confidence that enhances the credibility of ion simulation when applied to prediction of void swelling in neutron environments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Assessments of epistemic uncertainty using Gaussian stochastic weight averaging for fluid-flow regression

Here, we use Gaussian stochastic weight averaging (SWAG) to assess the epistemic uncertainty associated with neural-network-based function approximation relevant to fluid flows. SWAG approximates a posterior Gaussian distribution of each weight, given training data, and a constant learning rate. Having access to this distribution, it is able to create multiple models with various combinations of sampled weights, which can be used to obtain ensemble predictions. The average of such an ensemble can be regarded as the 'mean estimation', whereas its standard deviation can be used to construct 'confidence intervals', which enable us to perform uncertainty quantification (UQ) with regard to the training process of neural networks. We utilize representative neural-network-based function approximation tasks for the following cases: (i) a two-dimensional circular-cylinder wake; (ii) the DayMET dataset (maximum daily temperature in North America); (iii) a three-dimensional square-cylinder wake; and (iv) urban flow, to assess the generalizability of the present idea for a wide range of complex datasets. SWAG-based UQ can be applied regardless of the network architecture, and therefore, we demonstrate the applicability of the method for two types of neural networks: (i) global field reconstruction from sparse sensors by combining convolutional neural network (CNN) and multi-layer perceptron (MLP); and (ii) far-field state estimation from sectional data with two-dimensional CNN. We find that SWAG can obtain physically-interpretable confidence-interval estimates from the perspective of epistemic uncertainty. This capability supports its use for a wide range of problems in science and engineering.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Search for nonresonant Higgs boson pair production in final state with two bottom quarks and two tau leptons in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

A search for the nonresonant production of Higgs boson pairs (HH ) via gluon-gluon and vector boson fusion processes in final states with two bottom quarks and two tau leptons is presented. The search uses data from proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV recorded with the CMS detector at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb -1 . Events in which at least one tau lepton decays hadronically are considered and multiple machine learning techniques are used to identify and extract the signal. The data are found to be consistent, within uncertainties, with the standard model (SM) predictions. Upper limits on the HH production cross section are set to constrain the parameter space for anomalous Higgs boson couplings. The observed (expected) upper limit at 95% confidence level corresponds to 3.3 (5.2) times the SM prediction for the inclusive HH cross section and to 124 (154) times the SM prediction for the vector boson fusion HH cross section. At 95% confidence level, the Higgs field self-coupling is constrained to be within -1.7 and 8.7 times the SM expectation, and the coupling of two Higgs bosons to two vector bosons is constrained to be within -0.4 and 2.6 times the SM expectation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Search for Higgs boson decays into Z and J/ψ and for Higgs and Z boson decays into J/ψ or Y pairs in pp collisions at s = 13 TeV

Decays of the Higgs boson into a z boson and a J/ψ or ψ(2S) meson are searched for in four-lepton final states with the CMS detector at the LHC. A data set of proton-proton collisions corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb -1 is used. Using the same data set, decays of the Higgs and z boson into quarkonium pairs are also searched for. An observation of such decays with this sample would indicate the presence of physics beyond the standard model. No evidence for these decays has been observed and upper limits at the 95% confidence level are placed on the corresponding branching fractions ($\mathscr{B}$). Assuming longitudinal polarization of the Higgs boson decay products, 95% confidence level observed upper limits for $\mathcal{B}$(H→ZJ/ψ) and $\mathcal{B}$(H→Zψ(2S)) are 1.9 X 10 -3 and 6.6 X 10 -3 , respectively.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Constraints on the Higgs boson self-coupling from single- and double-Higgs production with the ATLAS detector using $pp$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

Constraints on the Higgs boson self-coupling are set by combining double-Higgs boson analyses in the $b\overline{b}$$b\overline{b}$, $b\overline{b}$$τ^+$$τ^–$ and $b\overline{b}$$γγ$ decay channels with single-Higgs boson analyses targeting the $γγ$, $\overline{Z}$$\overline{Z}$$^*$, $WW^*$, $τ^+$$τ^–$ and $b\overline{b}$ decay channels. The data used in these analyses were recorded by the ATLAS detector at the LHC in proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 126–139 fb –1 . The combination of the double-Higgs analyses sets an upper limit of $μ_{HH}$ < 2.4 at 95% confidence level on the double-Higgs production cross-section normalised to its Standard Model prediction. Combining the single-Higgs and double-Higgs analyses, with the assumption that new physics affects only the Higgs boson self-coupling ($λ_{HHH}$), values outside the interval –0.4 < $κ_λ$ = ($λ_{HHH}$/${λ}_{HHH}^{SM}$) < 6.3 are excluded at 95% confidence level. The combined single-Higgs and doubleHiggs analyses provide results with fewer assumptions, by adding in the fit more coupling modifiers introduced to account for the Higgs boson interactions with the other Standard Model particles. In this relaxed scenario, the constraint becomes –1.4 < $κ_λ$ < 6.1 at 95% CL.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Search for pair production of boosted Higgs bosons via vector-boson fusion in the $b$$\overline{b}$$b$$\overline{b}$ final state using $pp$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for Higgs boson pair production via vector-boson fusion is performed in the Lorentz-boosted regime, where a Higgs boson candidate is reconstructed as a single large-radius jet, using 140 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV recorded by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. Only Higgs boson decays into bottom quark pairs are considered. The search is particularly sensitive to the quartic coupling between two vector bosons and two Higgs bosons relative to its Standard Model prediction, K 2V . This study constrains K 2V to 0.55 < K 2V < 1.49 at the 95% confidence level. The value K 2V = 0 is excluded with a significance of 3.8 standard deviations with other Higgs boson couplings fixed to their Standard Model values. A search for new heavy spin-0 resonances that would mediate Higgs boson pair production via vector-boson fusion is carried out in the mass range of 1–5 TeV for the first time under several model and decay-width assumptions. No significant deviation from the Standard Model hypothesis is observed and exclusion limits at the 95% confidence level are derived.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗