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At least 163 records · Page 9

A Physical Model to Estimate Snowfall over Land using AMSU-B Observations

In this study, we present an improved physical model to retrieve snowfall rate over land using brightness temperature observations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit-B (AMSU-B) at 89 GHz, 150 GHz, 183.3 +/- 1 GHz, 183.3 +/- 3 GHz, and 183.3 +/- 7 GHz. The retrieval model is applied to the New England blizzard of March 5, 2001 which deposited about 75 cm of snow over much of Vermont, New Hampshire, and northern New York. In this improved physical model, prior retrieval assumptions about snowflake shape, particle size distributions, environmental conditions, and optimization methodology have been updated. Here, single scattering parameters for snow particles are calculated with the Discrete-Dipole Approximation (DDA) method instead of assuming spherical shapes. Five different snow particle models (hexagonal columns, hexagonal plates, and three different kinds of aggregates) are considered. Snow particle size distributions are assumed to vary with air temperature and to follow aircraft measurements described by previous studies. Brightness temperatures at AMSU-B frequencies for the New England blizzard are calculated using these DDA calculated single scattering parameters and particle size distributions. The vertical profiles of pressure, temperature, relative humidity and hydrometeors are provided by MM5 model simulations. These profiles are treated as the a priori data base in the Bayesian retrieval algorithm. In algorithm applications to the blizzard data, calculated brightness temperatures associated with selected database profiles agree with AMSU-B observations to within about +/- 5 K at all five frequencies. Retrieved snowfall rates compare favorably with the near-concurrent National Weather Service (NWS) radar reflectivity measurements. The relationships between the NWS radar measured reflectivities Z(sub e) and retrieved snowfall rate R for a given snow particle model are derived by a histogram matching technique. All of these Z(sub e)-R relationships fall in the range of previously established Z(sub e)-R relationships for snowfall. This suggests that the current physical model developed in this study can reliably estimate the snowfall rate over land using the AMSU-B measured brightness temperatures.

Kim, Min-Jeong↗

Scale Mixtures of Frechet Distributions as Asymptotic Approximations of Extreme Precipitation

This paper is a further development of the results of [20] where, based on the negative binomial model for the duration of wet periods measured in days [16], an asymptotic approximation was proposed for the distribution of the maximum daily precipitation volume within a wet period. This approximation has the form of a scale mixture of the Fr´echet distribution with the gamma mixing distribution and coincides with the distribution of a positive power of a random variable having the Snedecor–Fisher distribution. Here we extend this result to the mth extremes, m ∈ ℕ, and sample quantiles. The proof of this result is based on the representation of the negative binomial distribution as a mixed geometric (and hence, mixed Poisson) distribution [17] and limit theorems for extreme order statistics in samples with random sizes having mixed Poisson distributions [10]. Some analytic properties of the obtained limit distribution are described. In particular, it is demonstrated that under certain conditions the limit distribution of the maximum precipitation is mixed exponential and hence, is infinitely divisible. It is shown that under the same conditions this limit distribution can be represented as a scale mixture of stable or Weibull or Pareto or folded normal laws. The corresponding product representations for the limit random variable can be used for its computer simulation. The results of fitting this distribution to real data are presented illustrating high adequacy of the proposed model. It is also shown that the limit distribution of sample quantiles is the well-known Student distribution. Several methods are proposed for the estimation of the parameters of the asymptotic distributions. The obtained mixture representations for the limit laws and the corresponding asymptotic approximations provide better insight into the nature of mixed probability (“Bayesian”) models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

How Cyanobacterial Distributions Reveal Flow and Irradiance Conditions of Photosynthetic Biofilm Formation

Microbial life on Earth is enormously abundant at sediment-water interfaces. The fossil record in fact contains abundant evidence of the preservation of life on such surfaces. It is therefore critical to our interpretation of early Earth history, and potentially to history of life on other planets, to be able to recognize life forms at these interfaces. On Earth this life often occurs as organized structures of microbes and their extracellular exudates known as biofilms. When such biofilms occur in areas receiving sunlight photosynthetic biofilms are the dominant form in natural ecosystems due to selective advantage inherent in their ability to utilize solar energy. Cyanobacteria are the dominant phototrophic microbes in most modern and ancient photosynthetic biofilms, microbial mats and stromatolites. Due to their long (3.5 billion year) evolutionary history, this group has extensively diversified resulting in an enormous array of morphologies and physiological abilities. This enormous diversity and specialization results in very specific selection for a particular cyanobacterium in each available photosynthetic niche. Furthermore these organisms can alter their spatial orientation, cell morphology, pigmentation and associations with heterotrophic organisms in order to fine tune their optimization to a given micro-niche. These adaptations can be detected, and if adequate knowledge of the interaction between environmental conditions and organism response is available, the detectable organism response can be used to infer the environmental conditions causing that response. This presentation will detail two specific examples which illustrate this point, Light and water are essential to photosynthesis in cyanobacteria and these organisms have specific detectable behavioural responses to these parameters. We will present cyanobacterial responses to quantified flow and irradiance to demonstrate the interpretative power of distribution and orientation information. This study presents new results, but many such examples are already found in the literature.

Prufert-Bebout, Lee↗

How Cyanobacterial Distributions Reveal Flow and Irradiance Conditions of Photosynthetic Biofilm Formation

Microbial life on Earth is enormously abundant at sediment-water interfaces. The fossil record in fact contains abundant evidence of the preservation of life on such surfaces. It is therefore critical to our interpretation of early Earth history, and potentially to history of life on other planets, to be able to recognize life forms at these interfaces. On Earth this life often occurs as organized structures of microbes and their extracellular exudates known as biofilms. When such biofilms occur in areas receiving sunlight photosynthetic biofilms are the dominant form in natural ecosystems due to selective advantage inherent in their ability to utilize solar energy. Cyanobacteria are the dominant phototrophic microbes in most modern and ancient photosynthetic biofilms, microbial mats and stromatolites. Due to their long (3.5 billion year) evolutionary history, this group has extensively diversified resulting in an enormous array of morphologies and physiological abilities. This enormous diversity and specialization results in very specific selection for a particular cyanobacterium in each available photosynthetic niche. Furthermore these organisms can alter their spatial orientation, cell morphology, pigmentation and associations with heterotrophic organisms in order to fine tune their optimization to a given micro-niche. These adaptations can be detected, and if adequate knowledge of the interaction between environmental conditions and organism response is available, the detectable organism response can be used to infer the environmental conditions causing that response. This presentation will detail two specific examples which illustrate this point. Light and water are essential to photosynthesis in cyanobacteria and these organisms have specific detectable behavioral responses to these parameters. We will present cyanobacterial responses to quantified flow and irradiance to demonstrate the interpretative power of distribution and orientation information. This study presents new results, but many such examples are already found in the literature. However this information exists in such a wide variety of journals, spanning decades of research that the utility of the vast storehouse of information is limited, not by the ability of cyanobacteria to respond in recognizable ways to environmental stimuli, but by our ability to compile and use this information. Recent advances in information technology will soon allow us to overcome these difficulties and utilize the detailed responses of cyanobacteria to environmental microniches as powerful records of the interaction between the biosphere and lithosphere.

Prufert-Bebout, Lee↗

Sampling Functions from Gaussian Processes and Structured Covariance Gaussian Networks

When learning aerodynamic models from data, it is critical to incorporate estimates of model uncertainty. This motivates the design of probabilistic aerodynamic databases which can be sampled to generate physically and statistically plausible aerodynamic models. In this talk we discuss how to sample deterministic functions from two different kinds of probabilistic models and demonstrate their use. First, Gaussian Process Regressors (GPRs) are a widely used probabilistic kernel-based model which can be thought of as Gaussian distributions over functions. GPRs are generally trained by maximizing the marginal likelihood of seeing the training data over the kernel parameter space. Sample functions are easily generated by drawing points from the Gaussian distribution at desired input points. However, when the points are not known ahead of time, the classical sampling approach is not possible since successive function samples will generate different function realizations. We present an approach for sampling consistent function evaluations from a GPR over multiple samples. Second, we describe a neural network architecture which learns a conditional Gaussian distribution by maximizing the marginal likelihood at each point in the input space. We then discuss and compare several options for generating sample functions which match this distribution. Finally, we demonstrate the use of these probabilistic aerodynamic models in an atmospheric reentry simulation.

Gaussian process regression↗

The Effect of Nozzle Design and Operating Conditions on the Atomization and Distribution of Fuel Sprays

The atomization and distribution characteristics of fuel sprays from automatic injection valves for compression-ignition engines were determined by catching the fuel drops on smoked-glass plates, and then measuring and counting the impressions made in the lampblack. The experiments were made in an air-tight chamber in which the air density was raised to values corresponding to engine conditions.

Lee, Dana W↗

In Situ Modification and Analysis of the Composition and Crystal Structure of a Silicon Target by Ion-Beam Methods

The method of Rutherford backscattering (RBS) with channeling is widely used in compositional analysis and structural determination. An experimental process line for in situ ion implantation and RBS spectrometry is presented, and its technical parameters are given. The parameters of a probing beam needed to reach a several-percent error in the study of distribution profiles of impurities and defects are detailed. The resolution of this method was estimated using the spectrum of alpha particles produced in the decay of {sup 239}Pu and based on the RBS spectrum from a silicon monocrystal. The implantation of Xe{sup +} ions with an energy of 100 keV into a silicon monocrystal and the RBS analysis of targets in the channeling mode were performed without breach of vacuum conditions. The distribution profiles of implanted atoms and defects in irradiated monocrystals were examined.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Proposed Algorithm for Placement and Sizing of Generation and Storage Stations in Urban Environments

The placement of generation and storage stations (GSSs) in distribution grids has been extensively investigated. Most traditional methods are applicable to rural or homogeneous environments and do not account for external restrictions on generation placement in urban or semi-urban environments. In this article, we propose a method for generation placement considering externality constraints. New utility-scale generation in distribution grids potentially occupies footprint and interferes in areas with existing infrastructure with architectural, historical, or touristic value. Urban environments are often regulated by municipal legislation. The placement of utility-scale generation in urban landscapes is economically and physically restricted by such externalities, and existing methods for generation placement in distribution grids based on technical optimization fail to account for this important nuance. The proposed algorithm flexibly adapts to changes in government energy policies and priorities. The selection of the type of generation suitable for the power grid is left to the preference of external high-level stakeholders, such as urban planners, industry development leaders, and energy policymakers. The proposed algorithm is a unique tool for determining the placement and sizing of generation in realistic conditions in distribution grids; it is adaptable to urban externalities and sensitive to stakeholder preferences.

generation and storage station placement↗

Quasistatic evolution of magnetostatic coronal structures

Four separate but related studies of coronal magnetostatic equilibria under a variety of boundary conditions and distributions of coronal current are reviewed. Physically, all four studies assume an axisymmetric corona whose radial magnetic field at the coronal base is dipolar. Electric currents in the model coronas are assumed to flow in the azimuthal direction, giving rise to Lorentz forces that must be balanced by pressure gradients and gravity. Mathematically, such coronas are described by the equation of magnetostatic force balance and Ampere's law. Although highly idealized, the axisymmetric magnetostatic models described provide insights into the behavior of a variety of coronal structures. The models show how more realistic current sheet boundary conditions and coronal density variations may be modeled.

Wolfson, Richard↗

Generative Adversarial Network for Synthetic Time Series Data Generation in Smart Grids

The availability of fine grained time series data is a pre-requisite for research in smart-grids. While data for transmission systems is relatively easily obtainable, issues related to data collection, security and privacy hinder the widespread public availability/accessibility of such datasets at the distribution system level. This has prevented the larger research community from effectively applying sophisticated machine learning algorithms to significantly improve the distribution-level accuracy of predictions and increase the efficiency of grid operations. Synthetic dataset generation has proven to be a promising solution for addressing data availability issues in various domains such as computer vision, natural language processing and medicine. However, its exploration in the smart grid context remains unsatisfactory. Previous works have tried to generate synthetic datasets by modeling the underlying system dynamics: an approach which is difficult, time consuming, error prone and often times infeasible in many problems. In this work, we propose a novel data-driven approach to synthetic dataset generation by utilizing deep generative adversarial networks (GAN) to learn the conditional probability distribution of essential features in the real dataset and generate samples based on the learned distribution. To evaluate our synthetically generated dataset, we measure the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) between real and synthetic datasets as probability distributions, and show that their sampling distance converges. To further validate our synthetic dataset, we perform common smart grid tasks such as k-means clustering and short-term prediction on both datasets. Experimental results show the efficacy of our synthetic dataset approach: the real and synthetic datasets are indistinguishable by solely examining the output of these tasks.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Multisource Data Fusion Outage Location in Distribution Systems via Probabilistic Graphical Models

Efficient outage location is critical to enhancing the resilience of power distribution systems. However, accurate outage location requires combining massive evidence received from diverse data sources, including smart meter (SM) last gasp signals, customer trouble calls, social media messages, weather data, vegetation information, and physical parameters of the network. This is a computationally complex task due to the high dimensionality of data in distribution grids. In this paper, we propose a multi-source data fusion approach to locate outage events in partially observable distribution systems using Bayesian networks (BNs). A novel aspect of the proposed approach is that it takes multi-source evidence and the complex structure of distribution systems into account using a probabilistic graphical method. Our method can radically reduce the computational complexity of outage location inference in high-dimensional spaces. The graphical structure of the proposed BN is established based on the network’s topology and the causal relationship between random variables, such as the states of branches/customers and evidence. Utilizing this graphical model, accurate outage locations are obtained by leveraging a Gibbs sampling (GS) method, to infer the probabilities of de-energization for all branches. Compared with commonly-used exact inference methods that have exponential complexity in the size of the BN, GS quantifies the target conditional probability distributions in a timely manner. As a result, a case study of several real-world distribution systems is presented to validate the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Intercomparison among plasma wake models for plasmaspheric and ionospheric conditions

The angular distributions of ions in the wake of a body moving through a space plasma computed from three different models are compared in order to investigate wake current depletion ratios under conditions simulating the topside ionosphere and plasmasphere. Results demonstrate the importance of taking into account the thermal flux at low Mach numbers and the angular acceptance of ion detectors in making theory-experiment comparisons. For all models considered, gradients in the angular variations of the fluxes are shown to be steeper near the wake-ambient interface than closer to the maximum rarefaction region.

Samir, U.↗

DECOVALEX-2023: Task D Final Report

Task D of DECOVALEX-2023 is focused on the simulation of the coupled thermal hydraulic-mechanical (THM) behaviour in the full-scale engineered barrier system (EBS). The Horonobe EBS experiment is the demonstration of the full-scale EBS in the underground research laboratory (URL) (performed by JAEA in the Horonobe URL in Japan). Task D consisted of the three steps, a preliminary step (Step 0), simulation of the laboratory tests (Step 1) and simulation of the in-situ full-scale EBS experiment (Step 2). Since the Horonobe EBS experiment demonstrates the vertical emplacement option of the EBS, the experiment gallery is also backfilled with the backfill material. Therefore, interaction between the EBS and the backfill material can also be demonstrated, such as deformation (change of density) of the buffer material. The underground water in the Horonobe URL is saline. This fact adds chemical processes to THM behaviour. For example, mechanical properties (such as swelling pressure of the buffer material and backfill material) and hydraulic properties (such as permeability of the buffer material and backfill material) change depending on the water chemistry. Task D was therefore a challenging Task focused on not only the relatively simple THM behaviour but also complex THM behaviour including chemical processes. Six research teams (BGR, CAS, JAEA, KAERI, SNL and Taipower) participated the Task D. BGR, CAS, JAEA, KAERI and Taipower research teams selected a THM approach, while the SNL research team selected a TH approach. Step 1 involved the simulation of laboratory test results and was important to check the numerical codes developed by the research teams. Step 1 was divided into four sub steps. The simulation results through the Step 1 identified the parameters for simulation of the Step 2. Basic parameters of the materials (buffer material, backfill material, rock mass, concrete, sand) were provided by JAEA. Special parameters which research team needed were identified by back analysis of Step 1. Most notably the mechanical behaviour of swelling and displacement depended on the applied model (elastic model or elastoplastic model). Parameters such as Young’s modulus were found to need smaller values than characterised in the fundamental laboratory test results (Step 1-1, 1-2) for the elastic model. Although laboratory experiments are usually simple, test results contained some error. For example, if the saturation level is 100 % or higher, it should be considered an error. This situation was presented in the Step 1-3. A possible reason is that the buffer material is a mixture of bentonite and silica sand. When a specimen is cut to measure volume or weight, sand grains will affect the measurement data. In Step 2, boundary conditions such as temperature on the surface of the simulated overpack, heater power of the electrical heaters installed in the simulated overpack, injection pressure and inflow rate of the test water, were applied. The outer boundary conditions can be selected using measured data (injection pressure and inflow rate of the test water that is controlled by the injection systems installed in the sand layer around the buffer material and in the boundary between backfill material and concrete support). Since such measured data has some noise, research teams developed their own simplified boundary conditions. Inner boundary conditions can be selected using measured data as heater power and temperature on the surface of the simulated overpack. These data also contain some noise, so research teams developed their own simplified developed boundary conditions. Task D validated various approaches thorough the simulation of the in-situ full scale EBS system including backfill of the gallery: variations in the coupling processes (THM or THC), analysis codes, and boundary conditions. Temperature distribution in the buffer material was simulated well by all research teams. This means thermal behaviour is not sensitive to the simulation approaches. Although the water content distribution on the outside of the buffer material was well simulated by all research teams, the simulation results differ from the measured values inside the buffer material (at the centre and inside, near the simulated overpack). The buffer material is made from tap water, but in the in-situ experiment, saline groundwater infiltrates the buffer material. Therefore, the selection of the hydraulic parameters of the buffer material greatly affects the simulation results of the re saturation behaviour of the buffer material. In the Horonobe EBS experiment, measured values suitable for validating the simulation results were not obtained near the simulated overpack. When simulating the pressure and deformation of the buffer material, the measurement data is easily affected by the installation conditions of the measurement sensors, so verifying the measurement data itself remains an issue. Mechanical simulation results differ depending on whether they are considered as elastic or elastoplastic phenomena. The accuracy of measured in-situ data can be assessed by detailed analysis comparing sampling specimen analysis and measured data. The Horonobe EBS experiment is scheduled to be dismantled in the future (FY2026 and 2027). This detailed dismantling investigation will finally confirm the measured data.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

MPC-based double-layer real-time conditional cSelf-restoration for interconnected microgrids

In this report, we propose a novel model predictive control(MPC)-based real-time conditional self-restoration energy management system (CSR-EMS) for interconnected microgrids (IMGs) integrated with renewable energy sources (RESs) and energy storage systems (ESSs). Superior to the existing IMG self-restoration methods, the “conditionality” of the proposed CSR-EMS can economically realize self-restoration and grid-assisted restoration during energy deficiency or faults, in both islanded and grid-connected modes. Cost minimization is implemented as the objective function to judge in real-time which restoration mode is economically preferred. The proposed CSR-EMS comprises two layers–the lower layer operates locally to eliminate electricity fluctuations created by RESs and ensure economic effectiveness within an MG, whereas the upper layer oversees the real-time operational status of the IMG system and determines power exchange among microgrids (MGs) during abnormalities. In detail, when a microgrid inside the IMG system experiences an energy deficiency, the CSR-EMS, on an MPC basis, intelligently optimizes power production from each dispatchable distributed generator (DG), ESS, power imported from the main grid, and power exchange among the IMGs to maintain the demand–supply balance, while considering system recovery cost, state of charge (SoC) of ESSs and operation modes of the IMGs (i.e., grid-connected or islanded mode). Simulation results and comparisons with existing IMG self-healing EMSs demonstrate the economic efficacy of the proposed CSR-EMS strategy during normal and abnormal operations, which can be used as an energy control framework for modern power systems with multiple interconnected microgrids.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Examining the Impacts of Great Lakes Temperature Perturbations on Simulated Precipitation in the Northeastern United States

Most inland water bodies are not resolved by general circulation models, requiring that lake surface temperatures be estimated. Given the large spatial and temporal variability of the surface temperatures of the North American Great Lakes, such estimations can introduce errors when used as lower boundary conditions for dynamical downscaling. Lake surface temperatures (LSTs) influence moisture and heat fluxes, thus impacting precipitation within the immediate region and potentially in regions downwind of the lakes. For this study, the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW) was used to simulate precipitation over the six New England states during a 5-yr historical period. The model simulation was repeated with perturbed LSTs, ranging from 10°C below to 10°C above baseline values obtained from reanalysis data, to determine whether the inclusion of erroneous LST values has an impact on simulated precipitation and synoptic-scale features. Results show that simulated precipitation in New England is statistically correlated with LST perturbations, but this region falls on a wet–dry line of a larger bimodal distribution. Wetter conditions occur to the north and drier conditions occur to the south with increasing LSTs, particularly during the warm season. Additionally, the precipitation differences coincide with large-scale anomalous temperature, pressure, and moisture patterns. Care must therefore be taken to ensure reasonably accurate Great Lakes surface temperatures when simulating precipitation, especially in southeastern Canada, Maine, and the mid-Atlantic region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Shape Measurement of Large Aerospace Structures Using Sensitivity Electrical TDR Distributed Strain Sensor

Electrical time domain reflectometry (ETDR) sensing technique can be best described as "closed-loop radar," where the information is derived from the reflections of a voltage pulse sent through a transmission medium. The ETDR sensing technique is a well-developed method and has been widely used to locate and evaluate discontinuities in long coaxial power transmission cables. The ETDR technique provides a true distributed sensing capability which can not only sense the distributed loading condition of the structure but also can pin-point the location of disturbance, such as the locations of stress concentration and structural damages. Proof-of-concept experiments have been conducted using photoelastic specimens with embedded commercial coaxial cables, i.e., RG85/U and RG174, to demonstrate the stress/strain sensing capability of ETDR sensors for structural health monitoring application. Although the test results showed that the ETDR sensor signals capture specimen deformation pattern both in bending and tension and indicate the location and type of crack damages of the photoelastic specimen; yet, the low signal-to-noise ratio of the sensor signal smears the details of the strain measurement that the ETDR signals can convey. A high-sensitivity ETDR coaxial strain sensor prototype newly developed at Clark Atlanta University will be presented. The construction of the prototype sensing cable as well as its electrical properties relevant to distributed strain sensing application will be shown in details. Test results of the sensitivity and tension responses of the ETDR signal of the prototype sensor will be presented and compared with those of commercial coaxial cables. Promising potentials of the ETDR distributed strain sensing method for shape measurement application of large aerospace structures will also be demonstrated using long slender beam with surface-bonded ETDR distributed strain sensor.

Lin, Mark W.↗

Temperature distribution in the human body under various conditions of induced hyperthermia

A mathematical model based on heat balance equations was developed for studying temperature distribution in the human body under deep hyperthermia which is often induced in the treatment of malignant tumors. The model yields results which are in satisfactory agreement with experimental data. The distribution of temperature under various conditions of induced hyperthermia, i.e. as a function of water temperature and supply rate, is examined on the basis of temperature distribution curves in various body zones.

Korobko, O. V.↗